Okay, so step one is to look at our newly discovered Thing's previous posts:

1. This is the one where Caerula rearranged the player list to have themselves be further back in the fixed ordering. He also voted for Apogee1 and for AvatarVecna. I should note that Apogee1 then immediately contradicted Caerula's test-in-order strategy, which could be an example of distancing. However, Elenna posted the same thing shortly after, so by that logic Elenna might also be distancing?

2. admits that the prior plan would be a guaranteed lose for the town with one vote. Sets the scene for later conversations.

3. posts a vote count (listing herself as voting three times, just spotted that) and a ranked preference list reposted as follows:
Spoiler: List
Show
1. CaoimhinTheCape (Haven't spoken yet. I feel like a thing would most likely not speak as much early, to avoid being the topic of discussion. They get a very large advantage by flying under the radar, and I don't think we generally vote people who are quiet early.)
1. PartyOfRouges (see above)
2. BookWombat (see above, less so because new player)
3. The Outsider (Made a very small contribution who's only effect was to wagon someone who isn't them. Quite suspicious.)
3. AvatarVecna (As above, but it's AV and reading her is hard)
4. Apogee1 (Pointing out that what I suggested is bad (and it is) under the one test per day system, but no investigation really. Easy way for a thing to appear without risk.)
4.5. Elenna (Pretty much same as Apogee1, but slightly less)
5. Grek (Suggestion of ranked preference lists seems good, even if I don't completely understand her proposal)
6. JeenLeen (I like their thoughts, and they are doing some investigative stuff. I don't agree about AV, she might get wagoned but I don't feel like she gets voted off day one that frequently. Also rogue_alchemist might want to give the starting thing to a skilled player)
10. Valmark (Excellent point regarding my list, and is being investagative. I don't think a thing would be that bold.)
11. Caerulea (I am not a thing, and so voting me wastes a test)
...with Bold replacing Red as the vote indicator. Probably the big ones to note here are the non-votes fort PartyOfRogues and BookWombat both of them were rated as being more suspicious than The Outsider, but didn't get voted for - suggesting that Caerula may have been trying to protect one these two. The other one to note is that Caerula rates Apogee1 and Elenna (the two people who called her out on the plan in zir first post) as 4/5 respectively, with Elenna having gotten an editing error (good job AV for pointing that one out) when she was (probably?) moved from 4 to 5. It should also be noted that Apogee1 switches his vote to the two other popular non-Caerula targets shortly after this post, just as the Caerula vote was picking up steam.

That said, given that Caerula did put Apogee1 first on the list, (which would have seen him killed first instead of last had Caerula's plan been accepted), I feel that this safely rules out the Apogee1-as-distancing theory, which leads us back to either BookWombat/PartyOfRogues trying to fly under the radar or The Outsider based on these posts:
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Hmm. Ordinarily, I'd RNG vote from the whole list to start things off. But since the vote only kills evils, I honestly feel a bit better about starting a wagon early. So I'm going to vote for the first person who received a vote: AvatarVecna.
(RNG votes after a big discussion opportunity appears, no commentary on Caerula's post)
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
5. Caerulea. People have made good arguments about their evil alignment, but I'm in agreement with JeenLeen's initial reasoning on this one: I don't think a Thing would have risked drawing attention to themselves like that, even if there were two of them. I can understand why people find their arguments fishy, and creating a new plan where they don't get tested does look a bit shady, but I can't help but feel like our attention is being diverted somehow.
(Tries to argue against Caerula as sus.)
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Hoo boy. I am not going to do well with this game.
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Well, I miscalculated. Badly. I don't have time for a full-on analysis or defense, but I'll do my best to try and come back to this as soon as I can.
(seems like the sort of reaction you'd get when you realize your scummate is the #1 most obvious Thing in the game.)