2020-12-11, 10:09 PM (ISO 8601)
Re: The Thing
First off) pretty unlikely a Cult game started with 3 Things, so we've almost certainly got just 1 left. Yay. Also, wow on actually hitting a Thing D1!
It looks almost certain The Outsider will get with the Day's extension. But I want to note that some posts later in the Day could easily be a fellow Thing bussing Caerulea after realizing that she's almost certainly going to be tested and die. That is, I don't really trust late-day votes on Caerulea as strong evidence against the voter as a Thing.
I do agree about the comments about Elenna, Valmark, and Apogee -- and how they argued for voting Caerulea -- as making it seem unlikely they are Things.
While this looks like a legit Town move at first glance, I can also see self-voting like this being a last-ditch wolf move. E.g., they hope we see them vote for themself and thus move our votes to another target.
Originally Posted by The Outsider
I do like the idea of getting a competing wagon to see some analysis, though, so I'll go with CaoimhinTheCape
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Also, I'll be a bit sad if this game ends D1. A Town victory is fun, but I'd like more time to play the game, especially with a new mechanic
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Some odd thoughts, sort of a Cult-based WIFOM/metagame question/thought.
A thought hit me about (assuming The Outsider is Town and game continues) the possibility of me being converted during N1.
If <redacted> is the last Thing, then I'm pretty sure they wouldn't convert me, since it'd be strange if I don't vote against them D2. That is, that-person-as-Thing wouldn't want to convert me because any arguments I'd make would probably either lead to them being tested OR seem to contradicting myself after a Night phase and thus lead to me being tested again--either way a Thing dies if we're the two Things.
But me posting this adds a WIFOM element of "well, maybe <redacted> will convert him anyway." But that just seems a bad move for the Thing faction because, as stated above, either way one of us likely gets tested. (Well, unless everyone thinks <redacted> is really in the clear and doesn't bother voting him.)
So I'm left in an odd mental position. Basically, if I get converted N1, then that would rule out one of the players as a Thing.
Thus, the Town part of me wants to say that "if I'm tested D2 and flip wolf, you know <redacted> is Town. Conversely, if <redacted> flips wolf, you can pretty sure I'm Town since them converting me would be a bad move."
But the player part of me wants to try to win if I get converted, so I don't want to give away stuff to the Town preemptively.
I would say more, but I feel like saying more will hurt Town. (I don't think the above hurts the chances of the Town, so I feel okay saying it as a "let's discuss the metagame a little bit while we wait for the phase to end".)