Originally Posted by Apogee1
Of these people, Apogee1 was first on Caerulea's new testing list and Apogee, Elenna and Valmark immediately pushed back against the plan. Apogee is 100% clear as of N1 and Elenna and Valmark are 95% clear (accounting for some crazy distancing ploy). This leaves us with AV, Caoiminh, Grek, BookWombat, and PoR.
-PoR is an informational void, so I'll disregard them for the moment.
-Grek's first action was to briefly analyze Caerulea's plan, put forward a previously-mentioned plan of their own, and introduce the fantastic idea of ranked lists. All of their later posts were a combination of accurate player and mechanical analysis. As of this moment, I'm 90% sure Grek is not a Thing.
From here, I'm less certain.
-AV immediately started things off with a self-vote, which would be a bit sus if I hadn't seen them do pretty much the same thing in every game I've been in with them. They then did some mathematical analysis, which is also business as usual. After that, they started moving on to analyzing other players while continuing with more theoretical and mathematical posts. I especially appreciated the analysis on how people got moved around when Caerulea switched lists, as I think it could be telling in the future. 75% sure they're not a Thing, with the caveat that AV is both good at these types of games and hard to read.
-BookWombat has contributed very little throughout this game. They did vote for Caerulea, but claimed it was RNG at a time where RNG voting really wasn't required. I voted in a somewhat similar manner and I was incredibly sus, for good reason. They then put out a voting proposal that was mostly unrelated to the discussion at the time, and later voted for me on the grounds that I seemed sus. While the latter sentiment was correct, it came with no analysis and was the safest thing to say at the time. The only saving grace for them was that Caerulea's new list put them near the front. Not a definite Thing, but certainly a possible candidate.
-This leaves us with CaoiminhTheCape. On the one hand, they spent most of their posts making solid analysis and were at the top of Caerulea's scum list. On the other hand, they didn't initially vote for Caerulea and spent time defending her. They have a nearly even mix of wolfish behaviors and townish behaviors, and I don't know what to make of that. So I'm putting them at a solid 50% chance to be either scum or Town.