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Thread: The Thing

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    Dwarf in the Playground
     
    ElfRogueGirl

    Join Date
    Feb 2015
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    Default Re: The Thing

    Hmm, okay. So we have one original Thing, and one Thing that was converted N1.

    For the original Thing, I was figuring at the end of D1 that there were five possible candidates: AV, Outsider, Caoimhin, Rouges, and Grek. This was based on
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    At this point I think Apogee and Book Wombat are almost certainly town, because of Caerulea proposing a voting order that would put them at the very start of the list (especially since they were near the bottom based on the player list provided in the opening post). Valmark also gets a lot of townie points for being the first to bring up that Caerulea changed the player order, which is one of the things that made me more sure that Caerulea was a Thing rather than a townie bringing up a bad plan. And of course I know I'm town, and we all know JeenLeen is town, although one of these alignments could change when night comes.
    We know now that Outsider wasn't a Thing at the start, and I'm inclined to think Rouges wasn't either, since they're MIA and therefore wouldn't have converted last night. (It's possible that they're only pretending to have ghosted, and are actually putting in conversions, but that would be kind of a crappy way to play, not to mention really boring. So I'm mostly dismissing that possibility for now.)

    Of the three remaining, AV, Caoimhin, and Grek, nothing much has really changed my mind about them. Specifically, I still think AV and Grek looked more townie D1 then Caoimhin did, especially AV, so my first vote is going on CaoimhinTheCape.

    As for the N1 conversion... idk. Unless I've been ninja'd, this is the first post of D2, so there's basically nothing to go on except thinking about "who do I think the Thing would convert based on D1", which is rather prone to WIFOM. Still, if it's the only thing I have to go on right now, might as well think about it.

    As far as I can see, there's a few possible options for "who would the Thing convert":
    • People who looked trustworthy at the end of D1: based on the logic above this and most people's lists, this includes Apogee and Book Wombat (based on Caerulea's list), JeenLeen and TheOutsider (based on passing tests), and myself, Valmark and Grek (based on generally seeming trustworthy to multiple people)
    • People who are good players and good at acting towny: AV and Valmark would be at the top of this list, IMO.
    • People who are unlikely to be tested D2: If I were a Thing, I might be tempted to convert JeenLeen or Outsider, just because people might be reluctant to spend a test on the same person twice in a row.

    And, of course, there's WIFOM involved: the Thing might want to avoid converting good players, for example, because they're the obvious target, but then maybe they would know we would think that so they'd be find with converting good players, but then... insert infinite loop here.

    Yes, this list of possible conversions covers almost everyone in the game. I'm almost tempted to use my second vote on Grek, my second-highest candidate for the original Thing, and worry about finding the conversion later. That has the advantage of making it almost certain (IMO) that we'll find the original Thing and get a second test today. But I'm significantly more suspicious of Caoimhin than of Grek, so there's a good we'll get a second test anyways, and I don't really like the idea of just ignoring the conversion.
    Thinking I'll put my second vote on Valmark for now, as they're both a good player and seemed trustworthy D1, but it'll probably move around as discussion happens.
    Last edited by Elenna; 2020-12-14 at 09:59 AM.
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