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Thread: The Thing

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    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    WhiteWizardGirl

    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Gender
    Female

    Default Re: The Thing

    Alright, we know that last night there was a single Thing who converted someone else, bringing us to 8v2. Here's all of the remaining possible days according to AV's chart:
    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Spoiler: All remaining possible days
    Show

    F: 8v2
    1. 252/405 it's still 8v2, and becomes 7v3 in the night.
    2. 128/405 it's 8v1, and becomes 7v2 in the night.
    3. 25/405 it's 8v0. Town victory.


    G: 7v3
    1. 1512/3240 it's still 7v3, and becomes 6v4 in the night.
    2. 1176/3240 it's 7v2, and becomes 6v3 in the night.
    3. 483/3240 it's 7v1, and becomes 6v2 in the night.
    4. 69/3240 it's 7v0. Town victory.


    H: 6v4
    1. 3780/11340 it's still 6v4, and becomes 5v5 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 4032/11340 it's 6v3, and becomes 5v4 in the night.
    3. 2625/11340 it's 6v2, and becomes 5v3 in the night.
    4. 756/11340 it's 6v1, and becomes 5v2 in the night.
    5. 126/11340 it's 6v0. Town victory.


    I: 7v2
    1. 84/144 it's still 7v2, and becomes 6v3 in the night.
    2. 49/144 it's 7v1, and becomes 6v2 in the night.
    3. 11/144 it's 7v0. Town victory.


    J: 6v3
    1. 210/504 it's still 6v3, and becomes 5v4 in the night.
    2. 189/504 it's 6v2, and becomes 5v3 in the night.
    3. 90/504 it's 6v1, and becomes 5v2 in the night.
    4. 15/504 it's 6v0. Town victory.


    K: 5v4
    1. 140/504 it's still 5v4, and becomes 4v5 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 175/504 it's 5v3, and becomes 4v4 in the night. Thing victory.
    3. 135/504 it's 5v2, and becomes 4v3 in the night.
    4. 45/504 it's 5v1, and becomes 4v2 in the night.
    5. 9/504 it's 5v0. Town victory.


    L: 6v2
    1. 630/1176 it's still 6v2, and becomes 5v3 in the night.
    2. 432/1176 it's 6v1, and becomes 5v2 in the night.
    3. 114/1176 it's 6v0. Town victory.


    M: 5v3
    1. 420/1176 it's still 5v3, and becomes 4v4 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 450/1176 it's 5v2, and becomes 4v3 in the night.
    3. 255/1176 it's 5v1, and becomes 4v2 in the night.
    4. 51/1176 it's 5v0. Town victory.


    N: 5v2
    1. 60/126 it's still 5v2, and becomes 4v3 in the night.
    2. 50/126 it's 5v1, and becomes 4v2 in the night.
    3. 16/126 it's 5v0. Town victory.


    O: 4v3
    1. 30/105 it's still 4v3, and becomes 3v4 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 40/105 it's 4v2, and becomes 3v3 in the night. Thing victory.
    3. 28/105 it's 4v1, and becomes 3v2 in the night.
    4. 7/105 it's 4v0. Town victory.


    P: 4v2
    1. 30/75 it's still 4v2, and becomes 3v3 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 32/75 it's 4v1, and becomes 3v2 in the night.
    3. 13/75 it's 4v0. Town victory.


    Q: 3v2
    1. 6/20 it's still 3v2, and becomes 2v3 in the night. Thing victory.
    2. 9/20 it's 3v1, and becomes 2v2 in the night. Thing victory.
    3. 5/20 it's 3v0. Town victory.


    R: Town has won.

    S: Thing has won.
    Furthermore, we know the naive prior probabilities of each player being a Thing:

    ~2 in 9 (1 in 8 of being an original thing, plus 7 in 72 of being a converted Scientist)
    AvatarVecna
    CaoimhinTheCape
    Elenna
    Valmark
    PartyOfRouges
    Grek
    Book Wombat
    Apogee1

    1 in 9 (Purely based on the chance of having been converted last night.)
    The Outsider
    JeenLeen

    BUT, I think we can do better by excluding everyone The Outsider rated as probably not Thing and (as a bit of an ad-hoc decision based on Caerula moving them in testing order) Book Wombat from consideration as a possible Original Thing, BUT giving them double chances to be converted (on the logic that Things would want to convert people the Town trusts). That changes the numbers to:

    ~11 in 20 (1 in 2 of being an original thing, plus 1 in 18 of being a converted Scientist)
    CaoimhinTheCape
    PartyOfRouges


    1 in 9 (2 in 18 chance of being a converted scientist)
    The Outsider
    JeenLeen
    Apogee1
    Elenna
    Valmark
    Grek
    AvatarVecna
    Book Wombat

    Subjective factors that didn't make it into the above analysis: I personally think Elenna, Valmark and especially AvatarVecna are more suspicious than The Outsider rates them as being, but still rate them as being more likely to have been Town than Thing yesterday. Also, I believe that not posting on D1 is a terrible practice and that the fact that PartyOfRouges always does this should not be regarded as evidence of trustworthiness.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-14 at 04:41 PM.