2020-12-14, 09:01 AM (ISO 8601)
Re: The Thing
Mechanical Question for the Narrator: is this a Narrator-confirmed fact that a new Thing was made?
Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist
If yes, we probably know PoR is not a Thing since they appear inactive. It would be a scheme (e.g., they were late and decided to appear inactive until D2 starts), but I kinda doubt that.
Here's my thoughts for finding the Original Thing
As noted during the Day 1 Extension:
- Apogee1, Elenna, and Valmark likely not an original Thing since strongly against Caerulea early on
- AvatarVecna likely not an original Thing since so early in Caerulea's list
- Cao wasn't put in a terrible position by Caerulea and seemed to at least halfway defend them and not vote for them.
I reckon Caerulea's hope was that the D1 list keeps any Things from being voted, but by D2 we rely more on analysis and thus didn't continue with the list when it would cause trouble for the Things.
So that leaves Grek, Book Wombat, PartyOfRouges, and CaoimhimTheCape as both possible and likely original Things. Book Wombat did 'randomly' vote Caerulea; could be distancing, but I'll put that as towncred. If PoR is a Thing and has ghosted, we'll win because no new converts (and possibly not get the Narrator-text we got), so I'd rather not waste a test on them during a Day Grek certainly seems Town with her analysis, but it doesn't look like anything that couldn't be a wolf posing as Town.
Thoughts on Finding the New Thing
My vote on Cao during Day 1 Extension, and my rambling blather about the game/metagame, was to try to dissuade Thing!Cao from converting me. I've already stated suspicion of him, so if I backtrack on that I get tested today and he probably gets in the Extension if I'm a Thing. And then the Things lose.
I also hoped it would dissuade a non-Cao-Thing from converting me, since if Cao is tested today and flips Town, I might be likely Day 2 Extension test.
So that worked.
I also reckon that, in general, the Things will realize the likelihood at least one confirmed-Townie would get retested since they'd feel 'safe' to the Town, so I'm okay not voting The Outsider. And The Outsider did a good job during the Night of saying stuff to dissuade conversion.
So where's a likely convert...
JeenLeen and The Outsider unlikely converts.
PartyOfRouges seems inactive, so can rule out as a convert.
AvatarVecna is a strong player, but often gains suspicion. I can see the Things avoiding converting her for that person, but that cycles into WIFOM.
If Cao were not a Thing D1, he probably wasn't picked for conversion due to some heat on him.
I don't have any strong feeling on the others. Grek, Elenna, and Valmark have been relatively active and offering good analysis. Valmark maybe not as much as the others in this game, but some pointed questions--and his playstyle could continue and pose as a good 'sorta under the radar' thing.
I don't have much thought on the others.
So my hope for D2 is to eliminate the original Thing, and hope that yields enough analysis to get the converted Thing.
CaoimhimTheCape and Grek in hopes of rooting out the original Thing, and maybe nap a convert.
Last edited by JeenLeen; 2020-12-14 at 01:43 PM.
Reason: Fixed [b] to [/b]