The Thing

[JeenLeen]

I remembered that PoR has been pretty quiet in the past, but I didn't remember if they were particularly quiet D1. Honestly I think they might just be bad at remembering to check threads and realizing games have started? Regardless, given the autolynch, no reason to check them now. If they don't auto (either by suddenly showing up or just by mysteriously not autolynching), we can vote them tomorrow. Especially if we don't catch the original Thing today.

I don't mind being voted for but since a lot of people are saying I voted for Caerulea late (if I understood correctly), I made the post right after seeing that the game started and reading through the thread.

You can change your votes as often as you like, I just ask that you post both votes every time you vote so that I can count it easier. I start with the most recent vote posts and work my way back, so if you made a recent vote, I count that, even if you didn't cross out your old votes. Crossing out your old votes is still preferred and helpful, but I don't want anyone to pull tricks by posting new votes and then arguing that they never crossed out old votes, so it was a "gotcha".

I will auto-lynch players at the beginning of night phase after the conditions are met, so in this case PoR won't get auto-lynched before the extended vote.

This is the first game where the Town players did not get a QuickTopic. I think that increases the chance of someone not noticing the game starts, since they don't get the PM in their inbox.
So I'm willing to believe Book Wombat's statement and what they are posting about in the quotation above. (Not saying that vindicates them completely, but it's a point in their favor.) I'm still for testing Book Wombat today as they could be the original Thing (though I'm betting on Cao) or could be a decent conversion target, so I'm really hoping we have a decent chance of getting at least one Thing with that pair and maybe getting another on the extension.

Also noting it as a general "maybe PoR ghosted because they didn't notice the game started." I'm not sure if it's fair or not, but, rogue_alchemist, have you tried PMing them to make sure they are aware?
I'm not saying you should PM them or should even answer my question. Doing so might be (and probably is) unfair, as it gives information to the Town (if you publicly answer) and/or helps one faction (if you PM him and he joins).

Also, thanks for the clarification on votes. I've crossed my changes out, I think, but it's good to feel safe if one forgets.

Who's a Thing, if Cao and Book Wombat flip Town

This is one of those things I feel iffy saying since I might be a Thing by D3, but here's some analysis for later (hopefully the Day 2 Extension)..

If Cao and Book Wombat both flip Town, I think I'd suspect AV or Grek as the Original Thing the most.
Grek = I could see her as a Thing masquerading as Town really well--though that might be because I keep forgetting when/how she voted Caerulea D1
AV = all her D1 great-for-Town math is something I could see Thing!AV doing as a cover, since she'd realize (especially with the Caerulea-scheme fallout) that proposing a scheme over analysis won't trick the Town into doing it, it'll just get the Town to vote you for putting forth an anti-Town plan. Everything she says seems great Town, but, then again, she's AV

Of course, could be PoR, but hoping auto-lynch takes care of that.
If it's someone else, they did some really risky and impressive distancing! (I could kinda see Valmark's accusation/queries into Caerulea's plan as being a small distancing move that looks better in light of the wagon that formed after. E.g., Thing!Valmark might've said it as distancing, but then it ballooned into part of a wagon by accident, giving him significant towncred. But I'd rather test the others first.)

If Cao flips Town but Book Wombat flips wolf, I'd want to look at one of those three (Grek, AV, or Valmark). Though I definitely understand arguments for other converts.

- - - Updated - - -

New Thought: almost everyone is voting Book Wombat and Cao today. Which is good if one/both of them are Things, but terrible for later analysis if they aren't. Also (assuming one of them is a Thing but not the other), lets the other Thing hide behind a safe vote. So what if we discuss who'd we'd vote for during the extension now?
Of course, our future-vote could change in light of who flips Thing. So maybe post under a thought experiment of "if neither flip Thing, who do I suspect", "if Cao flips", "if Wombat flips", or... well, no real reason to think about if both flip since then Town presumably wins.

This should also help us root out potential Things later by seeing who changes their attitude once converted. In other words, this is akin to AV's motivation to ask us who we'd convert if we were Things. Even if some of us lie, it'll give info that could potentially be useful.

My answers are in my above post, but it'd probably boil down to AV or Grek regardless of who flips what. Less likely to vote AV if Cao flips wolf, since I reckon AV isn't as safe a conversion choice. Though WIFOM cycles up, for if Cao!Thing would realize he and Book Wombat are likely to get tested D2, it'd probably feel safe to convert AV.