2020-12-16, 02:30 AM (ISO 8601)
Re: The Thing
Okay yeah Cao was almost certainly the original Thing imo. I could maaaybe see a world where PoR was paying just enough attention to convert but not enough to put any thought into it, and randomly picked Cao? But if that's the case we'll find out when they don't auto. I can't imagine any of the other possible candidates for original Thing picking Cao when they were clearly going to get tested.
I'm not convinced by the argument that thing!Grek wouldn't stick their neck out with that AV post. The argument seems to be that wolves don't draw attention to themselves when not in danger. But at that time, the votes were one for Valmark*, one for Grek, so it's not like Grek was in a safe position. I could see them trying to redirect town to another target, which has the bonus effect of letting them push whichever one didn't get tested as a possible mislynch D3.
*AV says that Valmark is at the top of ther list of possible conversions, but hasn't actually voted him yet, unless I'm missing something? Not sure if this is a wolf tell or just town!AV forgetting to add the color coding.
I think Apogee is less likely to be the conversion target. For one thing, how often do wolves deliberately not vote at all? Seems like a surefire way to draw attention, since the narration lists the people who didn't vote. Apogee could have flown under the radar better by not saying much and just voting for the same two people as almost everyone else (*cough* like Valmark did *cough*). Granted, there's some WIFOM there, and I've made this argument in past games so it's possible he could have predicted I would make this argument, I guess? But it still seems like an unlikely thing to do on purpose.
Of course, that just means Apogee is telling the truth that they intended to vote. It doesn't mean they're town, Things can get busy and forget the schedule too. But putting your actual partner at the top of your to-convert list feels really ballsy, especially since Caoimhin knew that the chances of their side winning depended entirely on their partner surviving the next round. Personally I wouldn't have the guts to do that, for what that's worth. Not an airtight argument by any means, but I'm willing to give Apogee a pass for today.
Valmark, as I mentioned, was among my top picks for who I would have converted. And I could see Cao especially wanting to go for a strong player, since Cao knew they would most likely be lynched. And, as others have mentioned, Valmark has been less active today. Definitely suspecting them of being the conversion.
Honestly not sure what to think of AV. Their analysis is good but they could definitely fake that. They're kind of an obvious conversion target for being a good player, but that also makes them an obvious test target and therefore a bad conversion target, etc. In any case I haven't seen anything from AV that makes me more suspicious of them than the general baseline level of suspicion they get for being AV.
Cao's list is a WIFOMy mess, but if you absolutely forced me to guess I'd say that he would probably remember AV's post and put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his list, but not the very top as mentioned above. So Valmark, JeenLeen, or Outsider (since I'm pretty skeptical that he would choose to convert an inactive player, and Wombat is confirmed town). I would normally also consider #3 on Cao's list, but that's me and I know I wasn't converted. But I'm very much not certain of that because, again, WIFOMy mess.
One thing I noticed from Cao's list, though - they said JeenLeen and Outsider were more likely to be tested, but by the time they posted that list it was pretty clear, I thought, that most people were against re-testing them immediately. Could be a sign that they were looking for a reason to move JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they really were?
Of course then the question is, did Cao want to move them down the list because one of them was the actual conversion, or because Cao wanted town to think one of them was the actual conversion? Ugh, WIFOM.
Voting for Valmark today, for the reasons stated above (as well as being second on Caomhin's conversion list, I suppose) but I'll definitely be keeping an eye on Grek in the future.
I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!