Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
Spoiler: Statistic Stuff
Show
I don't see anybody converting Apogee1 N2, for the amount of hot water they're in. I don't see anybody converting Apogee1/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider N3 for similar hot water reasons. I don't see Apogee1/Elenna/Grek getting converted N1 and converting another in that trio N2, with how much potential heat there would've been on the three of them yesterday.
Here's another thorough table of conversion combos I consider viable:


10/44 13/44 21/44 14/44 14/44 13/44 26/44 21/44
N1 Conversion N2 Conversion N3 Conversion Apogee1 AvatarVecna Book Wombat Elenna Grek JeenLeen The Outsider Valmark
Apogee1 Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Apogee1 Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
Apogee1 Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
Apogee1 The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Apogee1 The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
Apogee1 The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
Apogee1 The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
Apogee1 Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Apogee1 Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
Apogee1 Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
Elenna Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Elenna Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
Elenna Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
Elenna The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Elenna The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
Elenna The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
Elenna The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
Elenna Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Elenna Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
Elenna Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
Grek Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Grek Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
Grek Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
Grek The Outsider AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Grek The Outsider Book Wombat 1 1 1
Grek The Outsider JeenLeen 1 1 1
Grek The Outsider Valmark 1 1 1
Grek Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
Grek Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
Grek Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1
The Outsider Book Wombat AvatarVecna 1 1 1
The Outsider Book Wombat JeenLeen 1 1 1
The Outsider Book Wombat Valmark 1 1 1
The Outsider Elenna AvatarVecna 1 1 1
The Outsider Elenna Book Wombat 1 1 1
The Outsider Elenna JeenLeen 1 1 1
The Outsider Elenna Valmark 1 1 1
The Outsider Grek AvatarVecna 1 1 1
The Outsider Grek Book Wombat 1 1 1
The Outsider Grek JeenLeen 1 1 1
The Outsider Grek Valmark 1 1 1
The Outsider Valmark AvatarVecna 1 1 1
The Outsider Valmark Book Wombat 1 1 1
The Outsider Valmark JeenLeen 1 1 1


Spoiler: First Thoughts...
Show
N1 Conversions
Apogee1
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider

N2 Conversions
Book Wombat
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider
Valmark

N3 Conversions
AvatarVecna
Book Wombat
JeenLeen
Valmark

Using just those lists, we get:
Apogee1: 1/3
AvatarVecna: 1/3
Book Wombat: 2/3
Elenna: 2/3
Grek: 2/3
JeenLeen: 1/3
The Outsider: 2/3
Valmark: 2/3

Using both lists of approximate rankings, we get these two orders of vague suspicion:

The Outsider
Book Wombat/Valmark
Elenna/Grek
AvatarVecna/JeenLeen
Apogee1

...and...

Book Wombat/Elenna/Grek/The Outsider/Valmark
Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen


First Thought Conclusion: Apogee1/AvatarVecna/JeenLeen are bad choices to check today. It's not out of the question that AV/JL got converted N3, or that Apogee1 got converted N1, but there are other people who maybe got converted on multiple nights, and are just more common in the various combos.

Spoiler: Second Thoughts...
Show
N1 Conversions
Apogee1
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider

N2 Conversions
Book Wombat
Elenna
Grek
The Outsider
Valmark

N3 Conversions
AvatarVecna
Book Wombat
JeenLeen
Valmark

N1 and N3 lists are exact opposite, which is about as I expected - anybody could've been converted N3, but I don't think any of the people in deep suspicion of D1 conversion would've been converted N3 - it's just asking to get caught today. Elenna/Grek/The Outsider are the N1s I'd consider voting today. From those three, as I said yesterday, I think The Outsider is the most likely conversion choice for N1, so it'd be either voting The Outsider/Elenna or The Outsider/Grek.

If we're going to check the N3 list instead, this is much easier: checking AvatarVecna/JeenLeen again isn't a great idea since they could only have been converted N3, and there's basically nothing to go on to check and be sure (especially since JeenLeen isn't back yet). As such, Book Wombat/Valmark would be the pair to check here.


Combos I'd be willing to check today:

Elenna/The Outsider
Grek/The Outsider
Book Wombat/Valmark

I'm gonna get some food, then start doing ISOs on these four five people. For some reason I thought two people had duplicates in that list. I'm an idiot lol.

- - - Updated - - -

I also hope that people take my defense of Apogee1 more seriously today than they did yesterday, taking into account the fact that I made the exact same argument yesterday, it got me checked instead of Apogee, and I still came up clean.
I'm a bit confused by the lists... Initially I thought they were objective (at least the statistic) but they clearly aren't or untested people would have higher chances... I think. But then you speak of them as if you're looking at facts and not your own thoughts and that just confuses me.