Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
You know what, belay that. That'd be my list if we weren't at LYLO, but Grek's right, we are. If we're looking to maximize our odds of catching at least one Thing with our initial two tests (which we have to, to avoid losing immediately), then we need to test two from Book Wombat, The Outsider, and Valmark.

@Book Wombat

@The Outsider

@Valmark

I want to hear you three's thoughts on all players currently. Y'all are being fairly quiet and while I've already got my opinions, I'd like to hear more from you to feel a bit more secure in my voting.
Alright, I'm awake now. Let's start with the obvious- JeenLeen posted twice since last time I examined them, announcing their time offline after Night 2. As such, at the time of their first post they could have been converted (they weren't).
In their second post they look... Neutral. Kinda. They voted for two Town members but that doesn't say much and talked about how they found unlikely the Things converted some tested people.
Then they got tested and turned up Town, so we have a confirmed Town member going inactive into N3/most of D4.

I have strong doubts that they got converted instead of any notably active player- I would be wary of JL N4 though.

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Spoiler: Little enough posts to quote them
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Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
I agree with that vote. Apogee1 and AvatarVecna seem like good choices, especially since AV outright predicted they would be converted last night. Also, in answer to your question, Valmark, everybody had some sort of action that made them look Town-like in my eyes. I voted you because I didn't see a point in splitting the wagon when I didn't have anything to go on.
Initially this could have been two Things pooling their votes but we know Jeen wasn't a thing. Maybe Outside just jumped on an easy wagon?

One thing we disagree on is the fact of voting a wagon that is already going strong- I was going to be voted anyway (if I recall correctly) so that vote was effectively "wasted". It's an easy thing to do for a... Thing and actually not something I consider Town would/should do. But it might be just a disagreement like I previously said.
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Honestly, my pick for a conversion last night would have been Valmark. Town seems to be acknowledging the possibility of retesting people while implicitly shying away from it, and it feels like the kind of tricky move that's just safe enough for a Thing to go for. This game has prompted unprecedented levels of WIFOM as well, and it might catch people by surprise to stop earlier in the "This way or that way" cycle. It's not enough for me to vote right now, but it's a possibility.

I also have to unfortunately acknowledge that said argument would also work for BookWombat, as well as JeenLeen and myself to a lesser extent. Of those four options, however, Valmark and Jeen have been the most helpful so far, and Valmark was the more recent test of the two.
They hadn't yet switched votes here, getting convinced about Jeen afterwards- it could be just a Townie considering the possibilities when their top picks flip Thing (at least one of them) but could also be a Thing looking for a reason to change (unlikely but it's there).
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Hmm. AV needs to be tested today, I'm sure of that. But... she makes a good point regarding retesting and who would most likely be converted. Switching my vote pair to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen.
Look above.
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Full disclosure, a lot of the high-level analysis goes over my head at first glance. AV is incredibly good at putting out high-level analysis, but she's also very good at being tricky. Additionally, she seemed like somebody that a wolf-me would want on their team, for the reason stated above. So in part I wanted to be sure I could trust her analysis unreservedly, and in part because she seemed like a potential candidate for conversion. Now that I know the analysis isn't part of a Thing-trick, I'm going to try and go over it a few more times and understand as much as possible.

As far as today's vote goes... hmm. Voting from yesterday seemed to be going towards Apogee, only to end up redirected. And now that I know JeenLeen was innocent, I'm thinking Valmark is the next likely choice for "already tested and converted." Voting for Apogee1 and Valmark.

I also have a thought for why I'm not a Thing, but I'll save it for if I accumulate more votes.
Nothing to say, everything checks out and is coherent with previous day.
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Upon rereading, I can see the argument against Apogee1. I'll switch my votes to Grek and Valmark. As was noted, I unwittingly advocated for voting the already-tested earlier while keeping my votes on the untested. This was a mistake. Someone who was retested has most likely been converted. I've already given reasons why Valmark might have been the N2, and I'm sticking with it. Meanwhile, Grek has not only been putting out good analysis, their activity has risen recently. We were supposed to look for behavioral changes, so I'm going to go with that one for the moment.

As far as my actions go, I did this already. As you might have noticed, I'm having a hard time with this game. My actions are inconsistent, weakly reasoned, and generally seem shady. That being said, the last time said actions got me voted I was clean. I'm clean now as well, and I don't think I'll be converted for at LEAST another night (though now that I've said something, I might get proven wrong). The reason is, I work much better for Things as a scapegoat and a waste of votes than I do as a member of their team. All they have to do is wait for me to speak, and I'll probably provide a way to split votes off from the real Things. It might be counterintuitive, but think about it this way: why convert someone who has already been proven to constantly attract suspicion while innocent?
So in short, don't vote for me. I've helped the Things waste enough of the Town's time as-is.
You advocated for testing the re-tested and voted both untested and re-tested both toDay and last Day. That... Confuses me.

Also agreed on why you wouldn't be a Thing.


Actually seeing it like this I'm not so sure you wouldn't be a Thing- there's certainly reason for it, albeit shaky. I'd probably vote for you it Apogee1 flips Thing but from the looks of it you're getting tested while Apogee1 isn't, so nothing to do here for me (since it's pointless to vote you atm).

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Thank god Grek's posts are easy to spot while scrolling. Also these are notably less posts then I thought, again. Grek looks much more partecipative then she is.

Spoiler: Grek
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Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
I don't know why Cao would do that. I'm just saying, it looks like he did. Maybe he thought that since you warned against doing it in thread, everyone would assume he wouldn't dare? Like I've pointed out before, you don't beat WIFOM by trying to always be one level up from the other guy, you beat it by looking for behavioral differences between the Town/Scum cases that are difficult to use as a counter-signal. I would further like to note that P(AV was converted on N1) has no bearing on P(AV was converted N2|AV wasn't converted N1) - even if you weren't converted when I suspect you were, that still leaves you with the same one in seven baseline rate of having been converted N2 as everyone else. Saying that you were probably converted on Day X doesn't mean that people can't point to stuff you did on different days. If you're pretty sure someone's cult, the when of their conversion is mostly academic when it comes to deciding if you vote for them or not. ???

These are spectacular Town odds. A 50/50 chance to win it outright today is pretty great for the Town. We're currently at two Thing conversions from a Thing victory and will get to test four out of the eight survivors during that time, minimum. BUT, since there's two Things today (25% of the population), we have 43.75% chance of finding at least one Thing today and a 78% of finding at least one Thing using all four votes. Additional votes from finding a Thing bring us up to probable Town victory, even factoring in the fact that the Town is probably going to make choices that are better than random. Speaking of random voting, though:

Name N1 N2
AvatarVecna 16.67% 28.57%
The Outsider 16.67% 28.57%
JeenLeen 16.67% 28.57%
Elenna 16.67% 28.57%
Valmark 0% 14.29%
Grek 16.67% 28.57%
Book Wombat 0% 14.29%
Apogee1 16.67% 28.57%
The above assumes that Caerula and Caomhin were the original Things and that the Things chose randomly when converting people. If you suspect very strongly that a given person was not converted on N1 (say, based on an assumption that the Things aren't going to convert randomly because obviously they're not going to do that), that information can up to halve the likelihood of that person being a Thing right now; conversely if you feel certain that the Things wouldn't have converted someone LAST night, but might have converted them on N2, that can reduce their likelihood of being a Thing by around 60% - a little better than half.

My prior reasoning with regards to AvatarVecna stands, but I'd like to highlight an additional aspect to it which I declined to bring up prior to the Things submitting their conversion vote: In the hypothetical case where AvatarVecna somehow wasn't a Thing before now, credibly making it look as if I was going to push for an AV vote today means that AV probably wasn't converted N2 - obviously the Things aren't going to want to convert somebody who has attention on them. This changes the math a bit on the table above (AV is down to only a naive 16.67% alongside Book Wombat and Valmark; everyone else is up to ~30%), but doesn't really change my list:

1. AvatarVecna, as despite the prophylaxis of suspicion, I think he was converted N1.
2. Apogee1, mostly due to Apogee seeming very focused on not getting tested. Yes, he says he's fine-ish with being tested, but he also argues against it quite a bit.
3. The Outsider, because clearly we can't tell if they're being scummy or not.
4. JeenLeen, because I can imagine the Things trying to exploit already tested bias.
5. Elenna, because she's been very on point about ferreting out Things so far.
6. Grek, because while I know that I'm not a Thing, it WOULD be nice to have the Town know that too.
7. Book Wombat, by virtue of the odds. Nearly tied with Valmark below on that basis.
8. Valmark, by virtue of the odds, and making some good points about Apogee1.
So, first off we have her skepticism about AV supposedly not being a Thing because she wouldn't have let Cao put her in the middle of the list- without giving a reason for that skepticism.

Ignoring the confusion on AV's odds (which everybody could have had. I did) she talked about the probability of everybody and about how AV isn't actually likely to be a Thing compared to the others, then voted her nonetheless (but aknowledged that).
My only doubt is if I'm misunderstanding her argument at the end, so hopefully Grek will clarify that.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
Maybe it's just a 'me' thing, but given the format and the fact that a negative test doesn't remove you from the game, I feel like the correct response to suspicion as a Townie is a shrug. I mean, yes, the Town voting to test you means one less test getting applied to possible Things. But we get 2+ tests per day and even a negative test provides quite a bit of value to the Town in the form of showing us that we can trust all of your arguments (up until the next conversion) to be non-WIFOM, Town-motivated truth-seeking. In a game where half the struggle is trying to figure out who is lying to cover for whom, having people who we know to have been telling the truth is one heck of a second place prize.

The numbers I posted are not based on these assumptions, only on the knowledge that we have two remaining Things out of eight remaining players. It allows for the possibility of repeat testing (both of people tested within the four day window and of people tested previously in the game) and is entirely agnostic to when people might have been converted.

That said, I do find the broader point compelling and would be delighted to vote for JeenLeen or The Outsider just as soon as you've been tested and I know for sure that you're not just trying to direct our attention off of the people on your list. I mean, consider the possibility (from the bystander PoV) that you and I are the two Things - me as the N1 Thing staging an accusation against you and then converting you as a giant distancing play which also sets you up for this pro-retest argument that just so happens to exclude the both of us from consideration. Apogee1 or Elenna could plausibly be trying something similar, or the opposite could be going on with you as the N1 Thing converting one of us untested three while you do a stage magician trick to keep us from ever being tested.
Nothing to say. I agree with the first part.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
Book, you somehow forgot my votes. Actual Tally:

Apogee1 (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Valmark, Grek
AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
JeenLeen (3): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna
Grek (2): Valmark, Apogee1
The Outsider (1): AvatarVecna

Not voting: Book Wombat x2
Town would prefer clearing up mistakes, but this is enough small that a Thing would've done it.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
Technically those odds include the possibility that we test the same person today and tomorrow. P(Us catching at least one Thing today)=(1 - (6/8)^2)=0.4375, while P(Us catching at least one Thing tomorrow|no Things caught today)=(1 - (5/8)^2)=0.609375, for a combined total of P(Us catching at least one Thing using those four votes)=0.4375+(0.5625*0.609375)=0.7802734375 - the 78% figure I came to as the Town's odds. In other words, not catching ANY Things requires that we miss two 25% chances and then miss two 37.5% chances, which is actually pretty unlikely. It doesn't factor in the possibility of the Things trying to manipulate the vote, nor does it factor in any intelligent play from the Town, it just assumes that we pick randomly each time.

In other news, I've finally puzzled out where AvatarVecna and I were talking past one another with regards to this post (bolding mine):The part in bold was supposed to refer to the odds of the Things. We're still in 'IMAGINATION' land, where we're pretending that we're AvatarVecna, the N1 conversion trying to figure out who to convert on N2. For some reason I thought 'I'm inclined to start re-testing today.' was a segue out of that reference frame and into a frame where we're talking about Town odds and what the Town should do, instead of looking at things from the perspective of what the Things would want to get people to do. With that cleared up, AV's posts make a great deal more sense to me.
Explanation here too. Thank you for that again.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
That moves JeenLeen into the lead, but brings Apogee1 and AvatarVecna into a tie. In order to avoid having to deal with a tie, I'm changing my vote to AvatarVecna and JeenLeen, for a vote count of:

JeenLeen (6): Apogee1, AvatarVecna, Elenna, The Outsider, Apogee1, Grek
AvatarVecna (4): JeenLeen, The Outsider, Elenna, Grek
Apogee1 (3): JeenLeen, Valmark, Book Wombat
The Outsider (2): AvatarVecna, Book Wombat

I'm basically satisfied with this - if AV flips Thing and JL flips Scientist, we know to vote Apogee with the third vote. If it's the other way around, we know to test The Outsider instead. If both flip Scientist, we don't get a third vote and I will be very confused. And of course if they're both Things, we've already won.
I think you explain later why it can't be AV/The Outsider, for example.

Also with my headcanon that Apogee1 is a Thing and knowing that you considered them a priority this might look like you're defending them. Pending the explanation.

Saying ahead of time that you'll be confused by people not being Things looks in some way like you're preparing the ground for being wrong- or at least this is a reasoning I once heard (applied to me).
I don't agree, but I'd like to point it out.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
Not exactly, but I did have good reasons for those specific suggestions. But since it that information now has some bearing on conversions, I'd prefer not to explain until after me explaining won't do the Things any good.
You explained it afterwards.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
And here's my answer: yesterday, when I thought AvatarVecna was a Thing (and I'm still kinda shocked they weren't), it occurred to me that Apogee1 was basically the top pick in terms of who people thought were scummy, right up until AV started making arguments for how we should, for entirely game-theoretical reasons, exclude Apogee, AvatarVecna, Elenna and myself from consideration. Naturally if AvatarVecna had turned out to be a Thing and JeenLeen (who AV was implicating) turned out to be a scientist, we should take the original 'got to do only retests, trust me' argument with a huge grain of salt and assume that it was a smokescreen for protecting herself and Apogee1 from votes. Conversely, if it turned out that AvatarVecna was Scientist, but JeenLeen was a Thing, that would be full vindication for AvatarVecna's argument that we should be doing more retesting. The Outsider was the next most popular retest vote from what I could see and a natural next person to test if we were sure that the Things were converting recent testees. There's no reason why it couldn't be someone else (and indeed probabilistically it would be) but those two were the most natural and self-evident next-votes.

At this point, I'm willing to take AvatarVecna's claim that we shouldn't test particular people at face value. But I also want to point out, we're at lynch or loose right now: if we don't find a Thing today, we go into D5 with an equal number of Things and Scientists, meaning we auto-lose. It is essential that we get at least one Thing tested, which means playing the odds and voting for Elenna and The Outsider. (Technically any two out of Grek, Elenna and Outsider is just as good, but obviously I have no reason to self-vote here.)
Alright, everything here makes sense and self-voting on what might be the last Day helps nobody.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
I only saw that post after the N3 started. If Elenna actually didn't make the obvious connection, then it was possible that the Things might also not have made the connection. If Elenna already figured it out but was asking for other reasons, explaining during D4 was just as good as explaining during N3. Not a huge deal either way, but absent any particularly good reason why it couldn't wait until after the next day, I decided to avoid night-talk. After all, a Thing reading that post could easily come to the conclusion that I'd support a Apogee1/The Outsider vote today, even though I'm no planning to vote Apogee at all today.
I'm drawing a distinction here between making assessments based off of the state of the game (inferences made on the state of the game and theorizing about what you'd personally try if you were in a a given position) vs. making assessments based off of knowledge about the individual players (stuff like me being a relative unknown who is hard to read, or Party of Rogues always being late to D1). While the former sort of analysis is generally more useful, it's also more subject to change based on a person's position in the game; in my experience scum are more willing to lie about what they think the scum would be doing a given situation than they would be about the previous game history of various players. Yesterday, I was sure you were a Thing and so treated your arguments with suspicion. Today, I know that you weren't a Thing and that I can trust those arguments. Just like I said I would here:

I now know for sure that you weren't trying to protect a scum buddy. The argument that the Things are definitely going to try to convert people who've been tested is convincing. Obviously so, or I wouldn't have made that very point pre-game and mentioned it during my first post in the thread. I get that this looks like I'm backing down and just going with the flow today and that that looks hella scummy, but to be fair it IS what I said I'd do yesterday and it is fully in agreement with what I said I think the Town should base its strategy on before the game even started. If people want to vote for me, I get it, even setting aside my insider knowledge that I'm not a Thing, I think the town would be better served by Elenna/The Outsider or by Valmark/Book Wombat, just to be dead sure of not losing instantly due to a mislynch.
Maybe I missed it but why would Town be "dead sure" by voting those two specific combos? Especially the latter- last time I checked you were advocating for Valmark/Book Wombat/AvatarVecna being the most unlikely (while voting the last one nonetheless) and I didn't see anything changing that? The argument for retesting people would work for me but not for Book, who should have been an even more unlikely chance and not one of the priorities.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
Changing my vote to The Outsider & Valmark, simply to make it less likely that we end up wasting a test on Apogee1, who is relatively unlikely to be a Thing out of the available candidates.
Legit.


I've noticed several incongruencies- especially in the end. Grek has never considered BW a plausible lynch as far as I see it after they got tested, so them and me together being sure to cstch a Thing seems... Extremely dubious.