Sorry, was going to post more stuff today but then Stardew Valley update 1.5 came out and ate my free time.

Re: AV's list of possible combos: If Apogee was the N1 convert, he would be picking someone N2 while knowing that he was under a good deal of heat and there was a strong chance his conversion would be the only Thing come N3. Given that, I can't imagine Apogee picking Book Wombat, who was clearly very confused about what was going on. That's not someone you want as your only living team member. So in the world where Apogee is the N1 convert, I think either Outsider or Valmark is the N2. I could maybe see BW as the N3 convert.

I'm less sure about this, but I don't think N1-convert!Outsider would have picked BW either, I think Outsider would want someone on their team who's more confident in their ability to do analysis, since Outsider has said that's not their strong suit.

Given that Grek and Valmark are tied for votes right now, it's interesting that AV thinks Grek but not Valmark was getting too much heat to be a reasonable N3 conversion. AV, were you surprised by the wagon on Valmark today? Looking for people who mentioned suspecting Grek or Valmark on D3:
  • JeenLeen listed myself, Grek, and Valmark, in no particular order but maybe leaning slightly towards Valmark, as their third-place picks for the lynch
  • Valmark voted Grek but didn't seem to have strong suspicions on them, and then switched to JeenLeen for a retest.
  • Outsider says Valmark would have been his pick for a conversion
  • Apogee voted Grek because "should be fairly obvious why". He also mentions that he didn't like one of Valmark's posts.
  • AV has a long back-and-forth with Grek, but I understood that as AV trying to explain their reasoning rather than AV being suspicious of Grek (at the time).

Kinda looks to me like there was about the same amount of suspicion on both of them. Yes, converting Grek would mean converting another untested person, but after AV argued convincingly for re-testing on D3 (and then turned out to be town), Things might expect us to do more re-testing, which might lead them to convert un-tested people. IMO either Grek and Valmark are both possible candidates for N3 conversion, or neither is. (I'd say both.)

Speaking of which,
Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
Yeah I'll go more into depth on Grek later but yes I have a reason for going for them beyond not being tested.
I don't think Apogee ever answered this, unless I missed something?

Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
Good point, I agree that this could be a good way to cast votes today.
That being said, if you're not a thing then either Grek or Outsider was the N1 conversion, which means if I vote for one of them then I have a 50-50 chance of hitting a Thing even without taking analysis into account. So it doesn't actually change my plan to vote for you and one of Grek or Outsider today.
Using this as a framework to look at Apogee, Outsider, and Grek, the only possible N1 conversions from my POV, and to explain why I'm rethinking this and switching to Grek + Outsider.

Voting Apogee + Outsider:
  • In the world where Apogee is a Thing, I have a 100% chance of catching a Thing (Apogee) plus a 50% chance of catching a second Thing (based on the above logic that Apogee would convert either Outsider or Valmark).
  • In the world where Apogee isn't a Thing, I have a 50% chance of catching a Thing (because either Outsider or Grek is the N1 conversion in that world).
  • Note: Both those 50% chances are somewhat larger than that in reality, because I think Outsider is more likely to be a Thing than Grek or Valmark. Also there's the possibility Grek was converted N1 and then converted Outsider N2, which increases the second probability a little. But I'm ignoring that to simplify this math.
  • So Apogee + Outsider gives me an average of x(1.5) + (1-x)(0.5) = x+0.5 Things caught, where x is the probability that Apogee was converted N1.


Voting Apogee + Grek is clearly worse than the above because it gives a 0% chance of catching a second Thing if Apogee is a Thing. That's basically a special case of AV's reasoning that we shouldn't vote two untested people.

Voting Grek + Outsider:
  • In the world where Apogee is a Thing, there's a 50% chance this catches a Thing (again, assuming Apogee would convert either Outsider or Valmark). Plus a chance of catching two Things, because as mentioned above I think there's a chance of Grek being the N3 conversion, but I'm going to ignore that because it makes the "average number of Things caught" math more complicated and I don't feel like writing out a bunch more math.
  • In the world where Apogee is not a Thing, this has a 100% chance of catching a Thing because one of them must be the N1 conversion, plus a chance of catching two Things if one of them converted the other one. Based on AV's chart, the chance that one of them converted the other one is 25%. I think it's slightly larger than that, because I think Grek could have been the N3 conversion and I don't think Outsider would have converted Wombat, but we can go with 25%.
  • So Grek + Outsider gives an average of x(0.5) + (1-x)(1.25) = 1.25 - 0.75x Things caught - again, x being the probability Apogee is a Thing.


So from my POV (worth pointing out that this all takes for granted that I'm not a Thing, which is obviously not something that anyone else can know for sure), Grek + Outsider is a better pair of votes than Apogee + Outsider if x + 0.5 < 1.25 - 0.75x, or 1.75x < 0.75, or x < ~45%. That is, I should vote Apogee over Grek only if I think the chance that Apogee is a wolf is about 45% or more.

If we ignore analysis and assume pure random chance, Apogee, Grek, and Outsider all have 33% chances of being the N1 convert. I think Apogee's a more likely N1 convert than Grek or Outsider, but I'm not sure they're that much more likely. Plus it doesn't look like an Apogee wagon is going to happen today, so I might as well move my vote somewhere where it can actually be useful, if only for future vote-analysis purposes. Hence, switching to Grek and Outsider.

Current vote count:
Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee, Valmark, AV, Grek
Grek (4): Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, Elenna
Valmark (3): Outsider, AV, Grek

----

A couple responses:

Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
And now that the two people Elenna voted have flipped innocent, it's Apogee's fault even though she's previously argued for his innocence and the primary evidence seems to be...that people believed her and me? So those people who believed our Apogee defense and voted elsewhere are now scumbuddies? And Elenna's calling out TO and Grek for voting the exact same way Elenna voted???
FWIW I did observe that the "Apogee was protected by a scumbuddy" theory makes me look suspicious as well as making TO and Grek look suspicious. I'm just not calling myself out because I know I'm not a Thing.

Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
And here's my answer: yesterday, when I thought AvatarVecna was a Thing (and I'm still kinda shocked they weren't), it occurred to me that Apogee1 was basically the top pick in terms of who people thought were scummy, right up until AV started making arguments for how we should, for entirely game-theoretical reasons, exclude Apogee, AvatarVecna, Elenna and myself from consideration. Naturally if AvatarVecna had turned out to be a Thing and JeenLeen (who AV was implicating) turned out to be a scientist, we should take the original 'got to do only retests, trust me' argument with a huge grain of salt and assume that it was a smokescreen for protecting herself and Apogee1 from votes. Conversely, if it turned out that AvatarVecna was Scientist, but JeenLeen was a Thing, that would be full vindication for AvatarVecna's argument that we should be doing more retesting. The Outsider was the next most popular retest vote from what I could see and a natural next person to test if we were sure that the Things were converting recent testees. There's no reason why it couldn't be someone else (and indeed probabilistically it would be) but those two were the most natural and self-evident next-votes.
Yeah, that makes sense re: AV and Apogee. I think I didn't make that connection earlier because I was also defending Apogee, so it didn't occur to me to think about why a Thing!AV might be making that argument because in my mind it was a reasonable townie argument.
I don't agree about JeenLeen and Outsider, though. AV's argument was basically that the Things wouldn't both be untested, i.e. at least one of the two Things at the time had already been tested once. If JeenLeen flipped Thing, then we would already have found the one already-tested Thing, so I don't think there would have been a reason to favour doing another retest.
Anyways, doesn't really matter now since neither of them flipped Thing.

- - - Updated - - -

Ninja'd by Valmark. Here's the correct vote count:
Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee, AV, Grek
Grek (4): Apogee, Valmark, Outsider, Elenna
Valmark (3): Outsider, AV, Grek
Book Wombat (1): Valmark