Spoiler: ElennaShowEverything seems to check out- I especially agree on Apogee1. It's also coherent with another post that I'll point out in a bit.Re: the N2 conversion, at this point it's a question of "who would be converted, given that we don't know who did the converting and we have very few D3 posts to use to find them". We could speculate on that, but I think we're better off focusing on candidates for N1 conversion, and then trying to get the N2 conversion in the second round of voting (assuming we manage to get a second round), when we'll have a day's worth of posts to look through.
Plus there's a fair amount of overlap in the pools of "good N1 conversions" and "good N2 conversions", I think, so maybe we'll manage to get both of them.
Something I remembered during the Night, from the Crazier Idea game:
Could explain why Apogee never voted in the first round D2, given that he couldn't reasonably have avoided voting Caoimhin if he did vote? I'm still kinda skeptical that Caoimhin would put their partner at the top of their public "to convert" list, but this does make me more suspicious of Apogee than I was before.
Also IMO, Apogee was the one person I was almost certain was going to be tested today, so it seems pretty unlikely they were the N2 conversion. Doesn't mean they couldn't be the N1 conversion, and I can understand people voting for them on that account. But since I'm personally not that suspicious of Apogee, I don't want to vote for them and give up the possibility of finding the N2 conversion.
I think we should re-test one of JeenLeen and Outsider today. For one thing, I agree with AV that the Things probably picked at least one already-tested person by this point. We could re-test BW or Valmark, I guess, but there's only one night they could have been converted versus two nights JL/Outsider could have been converted. Plus I'm skeptical that the Thing would pick BW who was almost completely checked out of the game by the end of D2 - there's obviously a possibility of WIFOM there, but it seems like too risky of a play.
Also, like I said yesterday, I would put a slightly higher probability that Cao put his actual conversion near the top or bottom of his "to convert" list, and it did seem like he was moving JeenLeen and Outsider further down the list than they deserved.
Of the two of them, JeenLeen feels like they would be a more attractive conversion target. They were playing pretty well D2, and even D1 they seemed more engaged and were doing more analysis than Outsider, even if I disagreed with several of their D1 arguments.
That leaves AV or Grek for my other vote. I want to vote for at least one of them today, instead of doing another re-test on Outsider, BW, or Valmark, both because I don't think any of those three are particularly likely to be Things and because AV and Grek have been driving a lot of the discussion, which is obviously bad if one of them is a Thing.
Looking at it again, my argument against Grek was mostly a counterargument against the statement that "Grek wouldn't stick their neck out when they weren't in danger". That's a reason Grek isn't innocent, but it's not actually a reason Grek is a wolf. If I had a reason to be particularly suspicious of Grek, I don't remember it now.
Honestly, I know AV is good enough at deception that I can't tell when they're a wolf, and I suspect Grek is too.
As Grek said, it does seem weird that AV argued for everyone posting "who would I convert" lists and then claimed that we should ignore Caoimhin's list because it was too WIFOM-y. But both those posts were the same day, so it's not like AV changed their mind because of being converted.
Hmm, I wonder if maybe Thing!Caoimhin didn't actually run that list by AV before posting it, so AV didn't have a chance to tell Caoimhin to avoid putting AV in the middle, and that's why AV changed their mind on the usefulness of conversion lists? There was only ~1.5 hours between the suggestion of "we should post a list of people to convert" and Caoimhin actually posting their list, maybe Cao decided not to take the time to discuss it?
IDK, it's a bit of a stretch since both AV and Caoimhin were online at the time (based on their posts) and AV could just have posted in Thing chat saying "hey, put me near the end of that list". But it could fit what we see, and I don't think AV has actually explained why they changed their mind about lists yet.
Thinking I'll vote JeenLeen and AvatarVecna for now. I'm picking AV instead of Grek because of the above, and because nobody has actually posted much of an argument against Grek beyond "they're a good player so they would be a good convert", which is just as true of AV.
She pushed for explainations, which is always good, and we know she wasn't protecting them since AV and Jeen flipped Town.Could you tell us why you're voting for those two? Especially Outsider, there's been a lot of people giving reasons to vote for Apogee, but Outsider is a more unusual choice.
I'm confused, why specifically vote Apogee if AV flips Thing and Outsider if JeenLeen flips Thing? Is there a reason you don't think AV+Outsider could be the two Things, or JeenLeen+Apogee?
Good points I had forgotten about Apogee- doesn't change my thoughts on Apogee. Notably though seeing how it looked like Apogee1 would -finally- get tested this could be distancing too. If Elenna or Apogee turn up Thing I'd test the other.Okay, so there are 3 Things out of 8 players right now, meaning we absolutely need to find at least one Thing today. (I guess given the tie rules, 4 Things out of 8 players might not count as a win for the Things? But if we get to that point it's pretty much a win for the Things.)
From process of elimination:
- At this point, the only possible N1 conversions are myself, Apogee, Grek, and The Outsider.
- Possible N2 conversions are the above plus Valmark and Book Wombat. But tbh, I don't think the Things would convert BW night 2 given that they seemed very confused/checked out at that point, and it seems unlikely that they would convert Apogee since it seemed so likely that he would be tested D3. So really, the list of possible N2 conversions is myself, Grek, Outsider, and Valmark.
- Possible N3 conversions are the above list plus AV and JeenLeen, but I don't think looking for N3 conversions is a good idea at this point due to lack of information.
So I'm looking at voting two of Apogee, Grek, Outsider, or Valmark today. (Leaving myself off the list for obvious reasons.)
I think I've changed my mind on Apogee's towniness. Like I mentioned yesterday, I initially thought his not voting in the first round of D2 wasn't indicative of anything, because it didn't make sense to me that a Thing would avoid bussing Caoimhin there given that Cao was clearly doomed. But then I remembered Apogee mentioning in Crazier Idea that they haven't ever bussed a teammate, so maybe this does suggest that Apogee and Cao were teammates.
Also, not a fan of how Apogee was suspected by several people yesterday, and then somehow he ended up avoiding the test and two townies were tested instead. Kinda makes it look like they had a Thing buddy helping them out? And yes, I realize that me pushing Apogee's innocence yesterday looks suspicious in retrospect, feel free to suspect me for that. But it's worth noting that at the time when I posted my defense of Apogee, it looked like Apogee was all but guaranteed to be tested. If Apogee and I were both Things at that point, I would have just bussed.
On the other hand, both Grek and Outsider switched from Apogee to someone else at just the right time to push another person into the lead. In fact, if I'm counting right, both of them broke ties in such a way as to push Apogee into third place. Suspicious.
So, one of my votes is going on Apogee, and the other one is going on either Grek or Outsider - both because they suspiciously shifted their votes off Apogee, and because they could be either the N1 convert or the N2 convert while Valmark could only be the N2 convert.
Looking at Grek and Outsider's votes yesterday:
Why did you choose to vote AV + JeenLeen instead of Apogee + JeenLeen? Did you have a particular reason to be more suspicious of AV? Not saying this was necessarily an illogical decision given what we knew at the time - that would be silly, since I also voted AV + JL - but I want to hear what Outsider's thought process was.
This looks better to me than Outsider's post above, mostly because Grek acknowledges that they're breaking the tie, it doesn't feel like they want to hide that fact like they might if they were on a team with Apogee. Still want an answer to my question about that last paragraph, if only for my own curiosity, but I don't think it's a wolf tell.
I'm going to vote Apogee and The Outsider, although this might change when Outsider answers my question above.
Also pushing for explanation.
Clearing up an apparent misunderstanding and pushing for explanation.Any particular reason, or just a matter of "they're a good player and they haven't been tested yet"?
Like I said above, I think Grek and Outsider both changed their votes in such a way that you didn't get tested, and one of them might have been doing it on purpose. Maybe I'm misunderstanding your question here?
Hmm, I can definitely understand wanting to know if AV was telling the truth. On the other hand, D2 you put Apogee first and AV fifth on you list of people you would want to convert. Did you change your mind about that?
Good point, I agree that this could be a good way to cast votes today.
That being said, if you're not a thing then either Grek or Outsider was the N1 conversion, which means if I vote for one of them then I have a 50-50 chance of hitting a Thing even without taking analysis into account. So it doesn't actually change my plan to vote for you and one of Grek or Outsider today.
Elenna like Grek looks more active then she is.
There's a general acting Townie feel and in addition she's been coherent from D3 to D4 by jumping on Grek and TO when AV and JL turned up Town (those four were who she wanted to check).
I'd keep an eye on her, since she's been basically flying under the radar, but hasn't said anything that makes me want to test her. That... Might be a dangerous combination if she's a Thing.