Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
Sorry, was going to post more stuff today but then Stardew Valley update 1.5 came out and ate my free time.

Re: AV's list of possible combos: If Apogee was the N1 convert, he would be picking someone N2 while knowing that he was under a good deal of heat and there was a strong chance his conversion would be the only Thing come N3. Given that, I can't imagine Apogee picking Book Wombat, who was clearly very confused about what was going on. That's not someone you want as your only living team member. So in the world where Apogee is the N1 convert, I think either Outsider or Valmark is the N2. I could maybe see BW as the N3 convert.

I'm less sure about this, but I don't think N1-convert!Outsider would have picked BW either, I think Outsider would want someone on their team who's more confident in their ability to do analysis, since Outsider has said that's not their strong suit.

Given that Grek and Valmark are tied for votes right now, it's interesting that AV thinks Grek but not Valmark was getting too much heat to be a reasonable N3 conversion. AV, were you surprised by the wagon on Valmark today? Looking for people who mentioned suspecting Grek or Valmark on D3:
  • JeenLeen listed myself, Grek, and Valmark, in no particular order but maybe leaning slightly towards Valmark, as their third-place picks for the lynch
  • Valmark voted Grek but didn't seem to have strong suspicions on them, and then switched to JeenLeen for a retest.
  • Outsider says Valmark would have been his pick for a conversion
  • Apogee voted Grek because "should be fairly obvious why". He also mentions that he didn't like one of Valmark's posts.
  • AV has a long back-and-forth with Grek, but I understood that as AV trying to explain their reasoning rather than AV being suspicious of Grek (at the time).

Kinda looks to me like there was about the same amount of suspicion on both of them. Yes, converting Grek would mean converting another untested person, but after AV argued convincingly for re-testing on D3 (and then turned out to be town), Things might expect us to do more re-testing, which might lead them to convert un-tested people. IMO either Grek and Valmark are both possible candidates for N3 conversion, or neither is. (I'd say both.)
No, I was not surprised. I did the math for that table as soon as the night ended, and came to a few conclusions - among them were which that BW, TO, and Valmark were the names showing up in the most viable combos. Given that BW is only on the list for being a poor choice but not (IMO) a disastrous one, I think BW would be less likely to get targeted for a conversion than Valmark. And while Grek is similarly suspicious in terms of behavior, the longer the game has gone on the worse I think of them as a conversion target, just because they're untested.

Using this as a framework to look at Apogee, Outsider, and Grek, the only possible N1 conversions from my POV, and to explain why I'm rethinking this and switching to Grek + Outsider.
...I think I've been looking at this all wrong. I need to check something.