Spoiler: Some Quotes
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Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
Grek and The Outsider.

Something something maximize the chance of hitting the n1 idk.
Bolded/underlined for emphasis.

Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
As far as today's vote goes... hmm. Voting from yesterday seemed to be going towards Apogee, only to end up redirected. And now that I know JeenLeen was innocent, I'm thinking Valmark is the next likely choice for "already tested and converted." Voting for Apogee1 and Valmark.
Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.

Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
At this point, I'm willing to take AvatarVecna's claim that we shouldn't test particular people at face value. But I also want to point out, we're at lynch or loose right now: if we don't find a Thing today, we go into D5 with an equal number of Things and Scientists, meaning we auto-lose. It is essential that we get at least one Thing tested, which means playing the odds and voting for Elenna and The Outsider. (Technically any two out of Grek, Elenna and Outsider is just as good, but obviously I have no reason to self-vote here.)
Bolded/underlined for emphasis.

Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
Changing my vote to The Outsider & Valmark, simply to make it less likely that we end up wasting a test on Apogee1, who is relatively unlikely to be a Thing out of the available candidates.
Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.

Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Grek and Valmark.
Pointing out the lack of bolding/underlining for emphasis.

Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
If we ignore analysis and assume pure random chance, Apogee, Grek, and Outsider all have 33% chances of being the N1 convert. I think Apogee's a more likely N1 convert than Grek or Outsider, but I'm not sure they're that much more likely. Plus it doesn't look like an Apogee wagon is going to happen today, so I might as well move my vote somewhere where it can actually be useful, if only for future vote-analysis purposes. Hence, switching to Grek and Outsider.
Bolded/underlined for emphasis.


I wasn't in their shoes at the start of today, the way I was yesterday, so I forgot the situation they're in for a second. Put yourself in TO's shoes for a second:

You're a townie. You know that for absolute sure. And based on TO's last post, you're accepting that the Apogee argument looks a lot less solid than you thought previously. So that's Apogee as very-probably-not-scum. You look back at the N1 conversion. There's only four people it could be - Apogee1, Elenna, Grek, and The Outsider. Since you know it can't be TO, and you're pretty sure it can't be Apogee1...obviously you vote Elenna/Grek, to guarantee catching at least one scum so that town doesn't auto-lose today. You probably won't catch two unless you're lucky/scum is stupid, but you just have to catch one.

Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Apogee1 and Valmark.
Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
Grek and Valmark.
You read through those posts I quoted, and you can see - The Outsider doesn't seem to be thinking about the N1 conversion at all. It's the strongest argument he could make in his own defense, and instead he's voting Valmark. He's just going along with one person I said to vote, instead of pointing out (what should be, from TO's PoV) an obvious flaw in my voting plan.

...let's see how the others hold up.

Quote Originally Posted by Apogee1 View Post
Grek and The Outsider.
Apogee is thinking about the N1 conversion, and doesn't have much else to go on so far, so he's just voting with his gut from that list of three. That checks out - scum could do that too, but doing it is way less scummy than not doing it.

Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
Grek and Outsider.
Elenna had a big analysis post about the N1 conversion and who she thinks is the likely candidate. This is the kind of effort I really wanna see from town on this kinda thing, and it clearly shows this has been on her mind.

Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
Elenna and The Outsider.
Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
The Outsider & Valmark
Grek starts out citing the N1 conversion hunt as the reason behind her votes, and then...forgets about it and changes her votes to exactly match mine? The general impression I've gotten from throughout this game is that Grek is pretty solid on analysis, I don't see her forgetting how far we've got the N1 conversion narrowed down. So why deflect off of it when she should be pushing the exact same point that Elenna just pushed, that I'm pushing now?

Grek and The Outsider. I could maybe believe that one of them honestly forgot, but both of them, when they're in the final four of the N1 conversion candidates? No. Grek/The Outsider is guaranteed to catch at least one wolf, and my gut is telling me we've got a solid chance at catching two. In the case that they both flip Thing, I'm also clearing Valmark - no way they'd both throw him under the bus like that, they were just going along with an easy lynch that got set up by me.