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Thread: The Thing

  1. - Top - End - #223
    Bugbear in the Playground

    Join Date
    Dec 2013

    Default Re: The Thing

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Grek starts out citing the N1 conversion hunt as the reason behind her votes, and then...forgets about it and changes her votes to exactly match mine? The general impression I've gotten from throughout this game is that Grek is pretty solid on analysis, I don't see her forgetting how far we've got the N1 conversion narrowed down. So why deflect off of it when she should be pushing the exact same point that Elenna just pushed, that I'm pushing now?
    At the time I decided to flip, the vote count looked like this:

    The Outsider (4): Elenna, Apogee1, Grek, AvatarVecna
    Apogee1 (3): Elenna, Valmark, The Outsider
    Grek (2): Apogee1, Valmark
    Valmark (2): The Outsider, AvatarVecna
    Elenna (1): Grek

    Look at that bolded bit from my perspective. I know that the statistically best votes to avoid LYLO are either Book Wombat/Valmark, Elenna/Outsider, Outsider/Grek or Grek/Elenna. I know that I'm Town, so that eliminates the last two options from my consideration: I want to make today's vote be either Book Wombat/Valmark or Elenna/Outsider if there's any way to make that happen. Unfortunately, as things stand, neither is a serious possibility and sticking with my initial vote means that the ultimate vote is going to be Outsider/Apogee1. A mixed strategy like Valmark/Outsider is less good than a pure strategy, but still statistically better than Outsider/Apogee1. Seriously, check the math on it:

    Spoiler: Math
    Apogee/Outsider avoids a Thing if Elenna was the N1 convert (1/3) and Outsider was not the N2 convert (4/5) for a total of 11/15 (73%) that the Town gets at least one thing.

    Conversely Outsider/Valmark avoids a Thing only if (2/3) TO wasn't picked N1 (2/3), neither was picked N2 (2/4) and Valmark wasn't picked N3 (3/4), for a total of 36/48 (75%) that the town gets a Thing.

    Both of these are inferior to Outsider/Elenna (which requires (1/3) followed by (2/4) for a total of 10/12 aka 83% chance of getting a Thing), but as previously noted Outsider/Elenna wasn't something that I could make happen.

    Outsider/Valmark was, so I went for it.

    Unfortunately, that has apparently resulted in us ending up at Outsider/Grek. Which is just as good from the perspective of non-Grek Town as Outsider/Elenna (good!), but known to me from my perspective to include at least one wasted vote (uh oh). So while I like that everyone is going for one of the logical voting options now... please reconsider?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Valmark View Post
    I've noticed several incongruencies- especially in the end. Grek has never considered BW a plausible lynch as far as I see it after they got tested, so them and me together being sure to cstch a Thing seems... Extremely dubious.
    Wombat/Valmark isn't guaranteed to catch a Thing. Rather, the logic behind that vote pairing is that you two the only ones who seem like plausible N2 AND N3 conversion targets, making for a mirror of the N1/N2 situation with Elenna/Outsider/me. The raw stats are better going by AV's numbers, but again as you've noted those are AV's numbers and are premised on the Things definitely not double-converting untested people. If we allow for a small chance that they did double convert untested people, either through scum error or as a weird WIFOM ploy, you're basically back down to even odds with Elenna/The Outsider, Elenna/Grek or Grek/The Outsider as a vote. Hence why those four were my possible considerations in the post above.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Outsider View Post
    Upon rereading, I can see the argument against Apogee1. I'll switch my votes to Grek and Valmark. As was noted, I unwittingly advocated for voting the already-tested earlier while keeping my votes on the untested. This was a mistake. Someone who was retested has most likely been converted. I've already given reasons why Valmark might have been the N2, and I'm sticking with it. Meanwhile, Grek has not only been putting out good analysis, their activity has risen recently. We were supposed to look for behavioral changes, so I'm going to go with that one for the moment.

    As far as my actions go, I did this already. As you might have noticed, I'm having a hard time with this game. My actions are inconsistent, weakly reasoned, and generally seem shady. That being said, the last time said actions got me voted I was clean. I'm clean now as well, and I don't think I'll be converted for at LEAST another night (though now that I've said something, I might get proven wrong). The reason is, I work much better for Things as a scapegoat and a waste of votes than I do as a member of their team. All they have to do is wait for me to speak, and I'll probably provide a way to split votes off from the real Things. It might be counterintuitive, but think about it this way: why convert someone who has already been proven to constantly attract suspicion while innocent?
    So in short, don't vote for me. I've helped the Things waste enough of the Town's time as-is.
    This is overall a very weird post. While the actual vote is a mirror of my own for their position, it doesn't look like TO arrived at it by the same logic that I did. Instead justification is that I've been more active than usual and do good analysis. That doesn't seem like a good reason to me. The rest of the post is arguing that we shouldn't vote for them because everyone things TO is scum in this game, even when they're not. But that's exactly why the Things would have converted him. He's been previously tested and has a built in excuse for looking suspicious and for making weird calls. I am overall pretty confident in Outsider as a vote, which is why I'm not in Full Panic Mode over the current vote going after me - we'll probably get a Thing in TO and then jump onto the obvious other Thing from there. (Not posting just yet who I think the obvious other Thing is, you'll see once I'm cleared.)

    Side note: Everyone keeps noting that I seem like I post more than I do. Which, yeah, fair cop. I'm a fairly terse writer and struggle to spell out my thoughts explicitly. But my analysis has been consistently useful, as people have noted, and that makes it so that the stuff I do post has an outsized impact on the conversation. I don't feel like that should be a scum tell so much as a 'Grek is just like that' tell.
    Last edited by Grek; 2020-12-22 at 06:15 AM.