Quote Originally Posted by Grek View Post
I think the more relevant figure is that based on what we know, there's eight people the Cult Leader could have attempted to convert (12 players minus three dead ones and the CL themselves) and eight that the Healer could have protected (12 players minus one that was already dead, two that died and the Healer themselves). Out of these there's eight pairings which involve the SK (who couldn't be converted) and six matches which involve the CL's target getting blocked. Subtract one for the case where the SK got targeted by the CL and the Healer somehow and you have a 13/81 = 16% chance for the current ratio to be 7:1:1 vs. a 84% chance for the ratio to be 6:2:1. That's nearly double the odds.
Ah yes, I forgot, the healer's attempts block a conversion as well as a kill in this version. That does change things. Still, odds are that a second cultist is out there.

Quote Originally Posted by Aleph Null View Post
You're forgetting a possibility, which is that I am the vigilante, and know that therefore the SK killed cap by process of elimination.
Requilac, you have been suspicious to me since day 1, but your response here confirms your affiliation in my book.
Quote Originally Posted by Aleph Null View Post
Well, because he told me to kill someone. I hadn't been planning on it, but he accused me and then said that, so I thought it would be thematically pleasing and also because I thought his behavior was a tad scummy.

EDIT: Yes, that is my claim
That was an important part of the equation I neglected to include. If Null's claim is true, it could just as well mean Town Guard as Serial Killer. As much as I don't like a Serial Killer in the field, risking kill the guard isn't worth it.

Now Null could be lying to take the heat off of a town power role, but in that case he would be sacrificing himself for the better of the town, so it's the exact opposite of Cult behavior. Given the Cult's strategy, a vanilla Cultist trying to take a blow for the Cult Leader would be a very bad idea, and one they probably would not take.

Null could be Cult, but his behavior so far indicates the opposite of that. I wouldn't advise anyone to vote for him.

So back to the drawing board.

The two people who died were the most quiet, so that doesn't give us much to work with. However, power roles tend to be quiet while still being involved in the game. Even if what one says is helpful, talking much makes one bigger in the conscience of people when deciding their lynch votes, so for power rules it is usually wise to lie low. Many vanilla townies would feel a lot more comfortable speaking up because it would be better for them to risk lynching than a town power role. Now a power role isn't necessarily a Cult member, but the Cultists are by definition power roles, so targeting them narrows it down some.

Caoimhim, Grek, Null, and Valmark have spoken too much to be power rules. AvatarVecna and the Outsider are getting auto-lynched anyway, so that's not going to help much. I guess that leaves us with Elenna and Book Wombat then as the most likely to be Cult Leader? I will go with Book Wombat, as Caoimhim has already done. At this point I know more of who I don't want to vote for than who I do want to. Anyone have any better ideas?