Quote Originally Posted by Mr Popo View Post
I am a little fuzzy on the math, but in a 14'er like this, 8 townies may not be sufficient because it is only one more than half, and one of those rounds come endgame is no arrest and wait in the worst possible case scenario.

So you need an extra villager because of the extremely pro-disloyal even number advantage the traitorous maggots have.

I have 9 townies instead of 8, which means you can no arrest later in the game if I was extremely wrong.

As long as all 9 of those names are town we win.

If someone wants to tell me which if any of those names are not town I am now open to hearing that, as a conversation starter.

I have proposed a theory. Now, as my peers, you review it, and tell me why it is wrong if it is.

Being a fair judge here, I probably have gac3 too high and that one is probably the only actual danger of going deep, because I wanted a 9th name and was excited to think of a reason why gac was town.

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This is my methodology and applies to my reads and my role this game.

Everyone else can do as they will, but I intend to convince all of you that the blues are town and not to be touched, and the teals are beyond consideration for the foreseeable future unless I am very wrong.

You can consider the blue names in the event the POE (process of elimination) list hits townies a lot. Never is a long time and also not applicable when the POE is very wrong.

Otherwise, you do not rearrange the POE without extremely strong reasons.

It forces the disloyal people into the uncomfortable position of needing to murder people who are not optimal murders simply because they can't arrest them.

Since I have claimed two roles it seems silly to counterclaim me as I am obviously lying about one or both claims. Besides, I also claimed a role that isn't even in the game.

No town points for it anymore, but people can tell me why I did that if they want.

I strongly encourage everyone not to follow that plan, but you're all autonomous beings.

Generally you need positive reasons why someone is guilty as opposed to a lack of reasons why they are innocent, because I am afraid innocent people are often not particularly good at generating bulletproof reasons why they are town.

Particularly when they aren't here.

In addition to being lock town when Vecna is not, you are also independently villagery for your distrust of me in particular and suspicion that I have falsely claimed and that it must be wolfy of me. You remind me of nearly everyone I have ever met who has played with me for the first time.

BatCatHat is snug as a bug in a rug in my town list. There is just no disloyal agenda about any of their posts.

This is a guessing game. It's better to be lucky and accurate than skilled and whiffing it.

Despite an extreme difference in styles, you can be the lawful Rogan to my chaotic Popo.

You shall be the paladin in shining armor who fights evil the proper way, and I shall be the distrustful sneaky rogue that sneaks up behind evil liches and stabs them with magic daggers.

While they're busy fighting you properly I will make them regret looking at you at all.

Meanwhile, if all votes on Libro could vanish, that'd be pretty gosh darned swell.
I am not sure about the math either. Worst case (misslynch and nightkill each day) would be:
14 Players, 11 good, 3 bad. D1
12 Players, 9 good, 3 bad. D2
10 Players, 7 good, 3 bad. D3
8 Players, 5 good, 3 bad. D4

6 Players, 3 good, 3 bad. D5 (Depending on the roles, this might be game over)

Now, this worst case is very, very unlikely to happen. There is a chance of handmaiden saves. And of course, getting no Wolf at all does not seem to be that likely either.

For most of us, there are 12 players to worry about. (No need to worry about the Princess, as soon as she claims; no need to worry about yourself)
4 missed lynches could be game over. So 12-3 means 9 persons you need to correctly identify as town.

So, I think we are on the same page here. But I am a bit sceptical about one thing:
You need to be right about those 9 Persons. If there is only one traitor and you are not willing to reevaluate? You have lost before the game is over. Thats a bit scary, in my oppinion.
Therefore, I would like to avoid locking somebody as town this early. But as long as you are willing to change your mind when new evidence arrives, I'm fine with your current list.

About your Role and Snows Plan... I might have an idea what you mean, but I might be wrong. And I will try to keep my mouth shut about this idea, unless someone else would realy like to talk about it.

And I totaly agree, it's much better to be right for the wrong reasons, than to be wrong for whatever the reasons may be. But the best thing seems to be getting the right answer for the right reasons.

But yeah, despite those differences in style, I am looking forward to solving this mystery on your side.

But now, I think I will have to go to bed. 1:45AM... Good day / night / whatever the time of the day it might be where you live. This is for everybody. Except the traitors. They won't have a good night, now that their leader, the evil queen was arrested.