Love Letter Mafia

[Batcathat]

And another one done. I really doubt I'll have the time and energy for more than one or maybe two more before EoD. Not sure how much they are helping me or anyone else, but it feels like good practice if nothing else.

Spoiler: ISO on Rogan

Show

The idea is not bad, but it also brings some risks. You pointed some of them out (and I would be interested in your math for the Handmaidens, but this can wait until after the game) and gave your assessment about them. So, I will claim that I have no role involved and no major objections to your analysis. Minor negative points for the "Trust me" part of your argument. But it's propably too obvious for a wolf. I reserve the right to reasses my stance toward you if the princess or countesse gets ambushed tonight.

Hard disagree here. Massclaiming would be a huge disadvantage! Since the Handmaidens are occupied protecting the Princess and Countesse, a mass claim would allow the wolves to snipe the more useful roles. Like the Handmaidens, which we need for the plan to work.

Good start with lots of analysis for this early in the game. Advicing against massclaiming seems town but it might also be a wolf understanding that town won't go for it and gaining some town cred.

I think you are correct about the first part (King, Prince).
You are however wrong about the second part (Baron). Snow even pointed this out in her plan. The baron can't connect anybody to this core. The princess can't be targeted after claiming. The Countess will be blocked by the handmaidens. They protect against the kill, but also prevent most other powers.
If the wolves get the countess night 1, will you change your oppinion about Snow?

Hard agree here. Xi is on my List of persons I don't want to remove from the game.

Some mechanics. Some support for Xi but (I think?) only for the RPing.

Your math is fine, which I realized some minutes after I made the post. At first, I had tried to take all roles into account, which made the calculation a bit more complex. Sometimes, you miss the forest since you see so many trees.

Well, it's not RNG random. AV

- is allways a good day 1 target
- had one vote already

Currently, there are 4 players I would not vote for.
[Rogan, Snow, Mr Popo, Xi]
And I didn't want to start a new wagon without a good reason. (Which I currently don't have). So I picked someone with one vote, who I would not mind getting eliminated. And the thought of AV never living to see day 2 ammuses me

This is reasonable enough, but I could see a wolf trying to push a mislynch under the guise of "wouldn't it be funny?".

Of course the reasons are thin. It's day 1 and, at the time of my vote, page 1. There simply is not much to go by, so I can take an option which I amuses me. It's not like I can't change my vote again, if someone pops up who is more suspicous.
And, as you made sure to point out, there is no reason NOT to vote for AV at the moment.

About the time remaining... Am I getting confused by timezones again? Unless I am mistaken, the day ends on Sunday, 5AM for my timezone. So 1 day 9 hours and 45 minutes from now. Thats not what I would call a short time.

Same as above. I would probably be more suspicious if it wasn't aimed at AV specifically.

Is this a counterclaim?

Or just this joke?

Wolf and town would both want to clarify this, so doesn't really say much, I think.

Thanks for the answer. And while I obviously CAN do the conversion myself, I certainly would not mind if you would include the CEST. Especialy if someone else would profit from this as well.

Good suggestion, but not really indicative of alignment obviously.

I am slightly paranoid regarding you since I remember your performance in PJ. You are increadibly good at avoiding the lynch, even if you deserve it. And in our second game together, you managed to survive a day where you were known to be the serial killer. (To be fair, your contender for the lynch was a baddy as well, so this should not count).

So I could see a world where you are a wolf, suggest a plan you know will fail, telegraph this possibilty AND get away with it. Those are things I propably won't have to worry about, I know. But I still have them in my mind and you might remember something about me: I still have to learn when to shut up!

All in all, I think you are more likely to be town than wolf. But I respect your skills enough to think you could fake this. And I would like to know if I am the only one who thinks that way.

I had (and still do) similar thoughts so they're not necessarily wolfy, whether or not Snow's town.

Snow had this in mind.
The roles are not out of the game forever, so sooner or later, the bluff will be called and the wolves loose one teammember.

Mostly about the mechanics of Snow's plan but if Rogan's wolfy, it might have been smart to leave it uncommented or use it against her. So some town points, I guess?

I would even say, it propably is not possible to claim Princess without using the power. Otherwise, it would be a tad bit unfair. Claiming Princess has a cost attached, not being a valid target for the Baron or the Handmaiden.

I suppose opposing a rule interpretation that favors the Princess could be somewhat wolfy but I can buy that it's more out of a sense of fair play.

Thanks for the clarification. I might not like the rules as written, but I don't blame you.

However, I will blame anybody using the option of claiming without bolding. If you want to have the protection of beeing a princess, you should pay the prize as well.

Same as above.

Yes, Mr. Popo claimed Count. And I think his claim still stands, but he doesn't want the princess to revial herself. Or anybody claiming not Princess, which would reduce the number of people who could be the Princess.
On the other hand, it is very much possible for nobody to be the Princess yet.

Mostly summing up what's happning, I guess?

You are THAT close to earning a vote from me. But I will let you off since you seem to be joking and I have you on my don't kill day 1 list.

Not sure how serious this is intended, seems like an overreaction if serious but I could see it being jokey (and even if serious, not sure it's very wolfy).

Okay, now I have to ask... You push for an AV lynch quite hard for... No good reason at all? Or do you know something we don't?
I mean, when I voted AV, you did not like my reasons. And I absolutely admit, my reasons are not terribly good. But I don't think you gave ANY reason at all. Well, except the name, but that's a very very weak reason.

If you didn't claim to be married to our beloved Countess, I would vote for you now.
You started wanting a mass claim, quickly changed your mind on this and now work against Snows Plan.
This plan is basically forced to happen now. We can not afford to loose the Countess, otherwise the Princess can not Claim or she is basically guaranteed to die the next night. With the Countess in the open, the Princess has nothing to loose by claiming, unless she believes the plan will fail. But for the Plan to fail, we would need to be either increadible unlucky, or there is a traitor ammong Snow and you, Mr. Popo.

Same as with gac, this seems like a pretty normal reaction to Popo's playstyle.

So, I don't think there are good reasons to vote for AV. No good reasons not to vote her either. (which is why my vote remains here, for the moment. I want to hear more from AV).

Seems reasonable enough, I guess. I usually don't move around my early vote until I have a good reason to either. Could be a wolf hoping the wagon will gain some momentum without having to really commit.

We, as in, everyone in this room.

I can say for sure that the only persons who could in absolute confidence say that somebody is loyal to the Queen is someone who is loyal to the queen as well. And you seem to be awfully sure about some allignments.

I know the Princess can't be illoyal to herself, so I can speak, with absolut confidence: The Princess does not know wheter or not AV illoyal. I don't need any secret meetings (which by the rules only happen at night) to know this.

I see you beeing very sure about something nobody loyal could know. Remember, even while everybody knows some secret nobody else knows (the role) the number of people that know things about OTHER players is very limited at the first day. This makes me suspicous of you and you only give me one reason not to vote for your arrest: You claim to be in leage with the Countess, and we can not afford to loose her.

If Libro comes back to claim Countess, I will vote you!

Now, about AV.. Well, if she minds my banter, I would like her to come forward and speak for herself. It remains a fact that I never played in a game with her where she lived at day 2. (Okay, she came back in PJ and was very important for the town victory, but still, she was dead day 2. I made sure about this. And was town as well. So, sorry AV!) It would still be funny for me if this curse would remain true.

Now, I never played with you, Popo. Never read a game where you played, either. So it might be normal for you to throw around absolut statements without any mechanical backup. If someone else does know you and your playstyle, I would be glad if they could share their experience with me.

This too feels like a reasonable reaction to Popo's D1 antics.

From my side:
Mr Popo - you are save unless you get counterclaimed.
Snowblaze - you are save unless your plan results in a spectacular backfire.
Xi - You are save as long as you write nice letters and there is no realy good reason to vote you.
Rogan - I don't see my death as an advantage for town. After all, I can prommise you one thing: I won't kill a seer this game!
BatCatHat - I like those posts for now. Plus, beeing in a similar TimeZone, so we might spend some time being active together.

Feels like a lot of the arguments aren't very relevant (Xi's letters, my time zone) but it could be padding for fun (and honestly not having many reads) rather than padding to hide not contributing.

For most of us, there are 12 players to worry about. (No need to worry about the Princess, as soon as she claims; no need to worry about yourself)
4 missed lynches could be game over. So 12-3 means 9 persons you need to correctly identify as town.


So, I think we are on the same page here. But I am a bit sceptical about one thing:
You need to be right about those 9 Persons. If there is only one traitor and you are not willing to reevaluate? You have lost before the game is over. Thats a bit scary, in my oppinion.
Therefore, I would like to avoid locking somebody as town this early. But as long as you are willing to change your mind when new evidence arrives, I'm fine with your current list.

About your Role and Snows Plan... I might have an idea what you mean, but I might be wrong. And I will try to keep my mouth shut about this idea, unless someone else would realy like to talk about it.

And I totaly agree, it's much better to be right for the wrong reasons, than to be wrong for whatever the reasons may be. But the best thing seems to be getting the right answer for the right reasons.

But yeah, despite those differences in style, I am looking forward to solving this mystery on your side.

But now, I think I will have to go to bed. 1:45AM... Good day / night / whatever the time of the day it might be where you live. This is for everybody. Except the traitors. They won't have a good night, now that their leader, the evil queen was arrested.

Starts understanding Popo better, which I think a lot of us who haven't played with him before started doing at this point, so that checks out. Though most of the discussion seem rather vague, which I don't like.

Well, my idea would be: Mr Popo didn't know if the countess was an active role or not.
In order to still allow a somewhat strong town core, he faked the claim. This way, he would get a position of trust and protection.
But this would be extremely dangerous if the princess revealed herself, thinking herself protected. So, why would Mr Popo do something like that? Well, he might be the only town person to know the princess wouldn't reveal herself.

I guess, Mr Popo is the princess. Many other things would make sense as well.

But I don't trust words at this point, unless those words are spoken by the narrator.
So.... Mr Popo are you the princess? Please bold your answer, for narrator confirmation.

Could be a wolf trying to lure out the Princess, could be town trying to find answers. Hard to tell.

Mr Popos post crossed mine. I think it's legit. I still want proof.

This might not be the best move from a mechanical standpoint. But I think I have made my stance clear regarding the princess and soft claims.

There is also another (small) danger. If there is no town Prince and the Princess is not in the game yet, soft claiming Princesss could go unnoticed.
There are ways to check this, plus it's very unlikely. But I like to be paranoid about strange edge cases...

(Currently writing from mobile, so please be patient... it might take longer than I like)

Consistent with what he said earlier about claiming Princess, at least.

Another cross post. I still want a bolded princess claim.

I think a Prist would have made a terrible move by claiming countess. Especially if it was posted AFTER Snow proposed her plan. The princess would feel fine about claiming and there would be nobody to protect her.

There are other assumptions I don't like. The votes for libro came before the soft counter claim. I get flashbacks for PJ. It's like me, as vig shooting AV, the Seer night 1. Sure, it didn't look good for the me on first glance. But I had no way to know I would kill the Seer. (Okay, I could have trusted the Manson claim and ask him in private if I should shoot AV, but I didn't want to claim right away)
Xi, the one player pushing a vig lynch, was a wolf.

I continue to get bad impressions from you, Mr Popo. Some of them might be paranoia. But there are so many things speaking against you, I can not, in good faith, ignore them. Sorry.

I think I like this analysis for the most part.

I would go for self preservation. The disadvantage is, of course, you might die anyway at the next day. But on the bright side, you might manage to kill a wolf.

Still, I disagree with AV. Going for someone with 0 posts is not useful unless this vote is supposed to force a lurker to post. But lurking does not seem to fit for Emmy.

We should go for someone more active so we actually have posts to analyze in light of the flip.

I mostly agree about voting inactives and considering how useful the inactives were for the wolves last game, I'm leaning towards this being a little towny? Though I suppose he might be specifically trying to protect his wolf buddy Emmy.

I don't see a demand for a claim? Only for activity and activity is good for town.
But I agree in principle. Voting inactives is not the way to go, unless you are very sure the active players are all town.

But the better move of course is going for somebody suspicious.

Currently unwilling to lynch:
Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BCH.
They actively gave me reasons to want them alive.

Not happy about a lynch for Emmy or Rouge.
They are inactive and therefore, a lynch would not reveal a lot.

AV starts to get more active, which I see as a win. We disagree about some things (and it still would be funny to see the curse in action) but I think there are better targets right now.

Jeen... I will have to look at his posts in more detail. But I would like to avoid doing so from mobile.

I would like to hear more from blades, but I won't put pressure there right now. He said he was busy IRL, which is something I can accept at the moment.

Mostly talking about who isn't wolfy rather than who might be. Not sure that means anything at all.

One of my problems with Mr Popo are absolute statements like that. But it might be a difference in play style.

I don't know what I should make of him and if anything he does or suggests is really something he thinks best for town, a ruse to hide his true intentions and lure the traitors into a false sense of security, or a wolf playing too much like a wolf in order to deceive everybody.
I think he is willing to take a risk, no matter the alignment.

And now I am sitting here, wondering if I should trust my gut, trust some more experienced players (hoping they are not all allies) or do something different altogether.

I think in some ways, Mr Popo is similar to AV. Both very fond of the manipulation part of the game. I tend to go against AV for the same reasons. I should leave my tunnel and read everything again, trying not to let my prejudice cloud my views.

Unwilling to vote today:
Rogan, Libro, Snow, Xi, BatCatHat, Emmy, Rouge.
AV (it would still be funny, but that's not sufficient reason for a vote anymore)

Mr Popo is in a weird spot. On the one hand, many things would make sense as a Town player, on the other hand, just as many things rubb me the wrong way.

I think there are arguments for a vote for Mr Popo, gac, book and Jeen.

I am going to cross out my votes and check again which of those targets will, in my opinion, yield the best results.

Mostly more of the same. Having a long list of people not to vote for seems like it might be a bad idea for a wolf, in case they want to jump on some convinent wagon later. So a little towny, I guess?

I disagree about your interpretation of Jeens mech / clarification posts being bad for town. Especially the post where he made sure that the Princess can claim without using her power. It is important for everyone in the game to be on the same page regarding the actual rules. They are the law, so to speak. And if there is confusion about the law, you absolutely should ask an authoritie. The narrator in this case.

I disagree about the part of
"Odd, interesting, strange, weird" are all terms that wolves use instead of taking a stand as to whether someone is wolfy or villagery.

I think it's pretty normal to be insecure about day 1 reads and asking for a second opinion. In fact, this seems more natural than your behavior, but I think those are different approaches to the game.
Same thing, but to a lesser degree, about preparing posts.

But now, there is the real problem with Jeen.
He was willing to arrest someone who made a plan that could be risky in order to check if this plan was good. That's stupid.
It would give the traitors time to plan and change the basic premise of the plan. It would add additional complications to the plan, like the risk of accidentally losing personal important to the plan. You want to test a plan in a way that is not useful for testing the validy of the plan while simultaneously weakening the plan.

I don't blame anyone being confused about things that are meant to be confusing. But being confused is not a positive thing either.

So I can agree with this plan. Vote Jeen now and get a flip. Best case, we get a wolf. Worst case, we will still have some vote movement to analyze day 2.

I am glad you are going to explain your town reads some more. I only skimmed them by now, I think the post will be big enough already.
I promise I will read them properly and make my mind up about them by the time I actually move to my computer.

Most seems to be a clash of play styles. Feels kinda genuine. Voted Jeen for what I think were pretty solid reasons.

Is there anything anybody could do to reduce this confusion?

And do you think you will change your vote before EoD? Voting the inactive is not very helpful, since it wouldn't give us much information, regardless of the flip.

I still mostly agree about the inactives but it could still also be protecting inactive wolf buddies.

I hope there won't be no surprise reveals. I have to sleep soon, so I won't be able to react.
I would like to ask you to state your opinion about the wagons before the day ends. It might not change things, but I would like to hear it anyway.

The first part could be a wolf preemptively excusing not reacting to something that might stop a mislynch. But that seems a little unnecessary (and this post was around 3 am in Rogan's time so going to bed it quite reasonble )

The way you talk makes me even more comfortable sitting on you. This death-accepting behavior reminds me of Snow from PJ. Only she started doing so earlier.

I kinda like this part. It's not as if Rogan really needs to motivate staying on Jeen at this point so it feels honest.

While there was no full review for myself, someone mentioned he (or she?) Thought I would change my stances too often. This feels like an unfair judgment.

I changed my stance on one player, namely Mr Popo. But this changes always were the result of new info.
At first, he claimed a unique, unchanging Town only role. I won't vote there.
His behavior is alien for me. He rings multiple alarm bells for me. There is a soft counter claim. Still, nothing definite, so he stays in the group of people I am not going to lynch.
Next thing a counter claim. Popo lost the reason I believe him to be town. That's the last drop in an ocean of red flags. I vote him.

I think this is pretty fair from what I've read. Rogan seems to go quite a bit back and forth on Popo in particular but that's pretty understandable.

List of players I am not willing to vote for today:
Snow - My paranoia of early day 1 was unnecessary. Her plan might not be optimal, but she had good intentions. She remains a strong town read. She is also the princess
Library - Uncontested Countess claim.
Mr Popo - I think I understand his motivation for the day 1 behavior better now. Some of the red flags I still had about him got dropped by this. He is a very active player as well and that's quite valuable for town. He is also the princess. And her father, but this is getting strange....
AV - Actually doing things instead of talking about doing something. Active in general. Very observant in some regards (I wouldn't have noticed Emmy was active without getting here, for example) Survived the night, so killing her would not be funny anymore. She is also the princess Doesn't want to kill me
Jeen, Blades - They are guaranteed to be town. They are also out of the match.

List of players I tend to trust, but could convinced to vote if there are good arguments:
Xi - She has to take a step back, since I won't use her RP/ letters as an argument for keeping her. But her play seems fine and somehow more like Crazy (where she was town) than PJ (where she was the first wolf to die).
BatCatHat - I don't remember a single bad thing about him. Maybe he could be a bit more active. There are not many concrete good things about him as far as I can remember right now, but I am tired already, which definitely plays a role here. I might try an ISO when I am awake again.
Rogan - He is not the princess. This is evil. I think, blades could have been partly to discredit me. He wants to reread me and promptly dies. In general, I am willing to die if it's necessary for the team. Especially if I know I made a big mistake. I might have made a mistake about the handling of the Princess claims, but that's not a big mistake, so you are better off hunting real wolves. At least, I didn't shoot the Seer this time

Seems consistent with what he's said earlier, aside from maybe trusting Snow more. Speaking out (more or less) in favor of her plan after it's been fairly discredited feels oddly town to me. Could be a wolf still hoping to use it against town, but I don't think so.

I think this community is much more easy going than Mr Popo.

In other news, I think the ocean is wetter than the desert.

I won't comment on his big post in detail. Most of it seems fine, though I disagree about liking gac's #233 (as I said before, it feels forced to me) and (obviously) the vote for me. But it's a reasonable theory, if trying out ISOs has shown anything it's how much I tend to argue against myself. I'd point out that I've basically acted the same way in all games, whether town or not, but since being unsure isn't exactly hard to fake (and indeed, I've occasionally played up my inexperience when scum) I could see how that's not really helping me.

So yeah, I don't really have any good defense. His arguments are sound, it's just the conclusion that's wrong.

A lot of mixed feelings in this one too, but there were a few things I really liked so I think I ended up leaning town on Rogan.

(Speaking of which, that's why I made the "one in you/Batcathat" comment; I thought you had similar positions that a wolf would be likely to take.)

Wait, so are you saying that you think specifically one of us is a wolf or that at least one of us is a wolf? Because it sounds like the former but the argument seems to support the latter.