OOTS Werewolf-GAME ON! Opening post page 3.

[MOD]

Murska he's gotta go.

[Guancyto]

Could the seer have found a decent proxy having only scried Murska?

Unless it's him, the only way of clearing him is for the seers to out themselves to an unknown. This seems like a poor plan no matter what role he is.

So let's go with Opeth_Freak.

[Lord Herman]

Unbreakable union of hidden wolf players
Great Murska has welded forever to stand!
Created in struggle against the gooders
United and mighty, by Murska's hand!

Sing to the Murska, leader of the evil,
Bulwark of roles, in brotherhood strong!
Oh! Wolves of Alpha! The strength of the devil,
To Murska's triumph will lead us on!

I hope you won't find this inappropriate

Aaaah! Commie! Kill him!

[Heroic]

I'll point at Murska

[paddyfool]

*bites lip*
*regrets saying it*
I just... don't think Murska is a wolf this time...
*ducks the thrown objects*

paddyfool

You had a point, right up to where you voted ;-)

I'm not really that convinced, either, although I don't see any other leads, so I may as well just be vindictive, Reinholdt. Incidentally... my opening post should make me almost 67% less likely to be a wolf than anyone else (since it should make Nale less likely to want to pick me)

[The Bookworm]

Murska. Always a linear guilder.

[Murska]

Well, I'm not going to die today. That's due to my role. No, it's not a wolf role.

I've been contacted by someone who scried me correctly. Now he'll need to find a proxy. Waste a lynch if you wish.

Reinholdt strikes me as a player an alpha would pick.

[Shadowcaller]

I can't really trust Murska after what he did in demons.

[Fin]

Well, I'm not going to die today. That's due to my role. No, it's not a wolf role.

So your claiming Roy?

[Murska]

So your claiming Roy?

I'm not claiming anything. Since that's against the rules and gets you instantly killed.

[Kyouhen]

Hmmm... If Murska really is Roy then we'll just waste this day trying to lynch him. On the other hand if Nale is someone who's been around a while and if he can pick what roles the rest of the guild gets then Thog would be the perfect place to put Murska, especially if we don't get any info that tells us if the person we try to lynch was saved by Roy or Thog.

I'm going to withdraw my vote for now. If Murska really has made contact with the Seer then all we need is a proxy and we can find out if he's telling the truth.

[Vwulf DeMarcus]

Withdraw your vote? Meaning pretty much change vote to no lynch?

[Heroic]

A question about the rules, do we get to know if it was Roy or Thog who performed the day lynch?

[Vwulf DeMarcus]

No, you don't.

[Kyouhen]

Withdraw your vote? Meaning pretty much change vote to no lynch?

More along the lines of waiting to see what happens before I pick someone to vote against.

[Vwulf DeMarcus]

More along the lines of waiting to see what happens before I pick someone to vote against.

You pointed at Murska, I think.

[Kyouhen]

You pointed at Murska, I think.

I had, but I'm taking it back so people don't count it towards any bandwagons. I want to see what other ideas come up before I decide what to do.

[Fleeing Coward]

I'm going with the alternate bandwagon on Reinholdt here. Even if it turns out that Murska is indeed a wolf I think chances are good that he'd be day baned today. (Unless he's Thog and got voided last night or if the voider randomly voided Thog of course)

[Jontom Xire]

Murska.

Why?

1) He claimed to be a useful role - Roy (if he is Roy) isn't that useful.
2) If he's Roy, he's safe. If he's Thog he loses a day bane.

I know no-lynch days aren't great, but if we lynch Murska three days in a row and he survives....

Also as to the no-kill last night:

1) Inactive wolves - yeah right! On the other hand the night phase happened over the weekend and I for one didn't see the day end post until after the night had ended already.

2) Murska is baner. After claiming a role the wolves tried to kill him but he was baning himself (or being baned by the baner - I know I would). Question to narrators - don't we get told if the baner successfully banes someone? Anyway, this is moderate likelihood depending on who is in the linear guild. Games have been lost by attacking the person who was being baned on several occasions (Black Iron Prison, anyone?).

3) Murska is linear guild and ordered that there not be a night kill to make it look like he had baned himself. Less likely as usually when there is a bane we get told that the bane happened and often who the potential victim was.

[Trixie]

Hmmm... If Murska really is Roy then we'll just waste this day trying to lynch him. On the other hand if Nale is someone who's been around a while and if he can pick what roles the rest of the guild gets then Thog would be the perfect place to put Murska, especially if we don't get any info that tells us if the person we try to lynch was saved by Roy or Thog.

Yeah, we are not wasting anything. There are 5 good roles to 1 evil in this game, so we have ~85% chance of lynching someone good if we switch the vote. More, we have ~60% chance of lynching a powerrole out of good roles remaining, so...

Yes, there won't be a lynch today is Murska really is daybaned, but there was no nightkill either, and instead of killing (almost surely) someone good we can get useful info. That being said, there are three possibilities:

1) Murska is Roy. Great, we confirmed one good role, nice for seer test.
2) Murska is evil. Great, Team Evil is burning banes before they did anything, and we caught a wolf.
3) There is no daybane, because Murska either is lying through his teeth, or because he told Team Evil to save them (possibly because he figured he can lie his way out of the bandwagon - it's his specialty, after all). More info gained.

Oh, and I seem to remember a promise from a certain someone, that he will give us proof - somehow, it failed to happen.

[paddyfool]

Switching to Murska. His whole "I'm going to be day-baned" claim, if true, gives him a 75% probability of being in the Linear Guild, because it means one of the following four options:

1) He's Roy
2) He's Thog, and (probably) protected by one of Thog's two day-banes
3) He's Sabine, and (probably) protected by one of Thog's two day-banes
4) He's Nale, and (probably) protected by one of Thog's two day-banes

Given these numbers, this would have been a stupid defence to try if he was a villager, OOTS or mason, so I reckon it has to be one of these four. And given, also, that they can only kill one of us off each night, and that they can only do that if they manage not to overlap with the night baner, I reckon Murska's a shoe-in.

[Murska]

Switching to Murska. His whole "I'm going to be day-baned" claim, if true, gives him a 75% probability of being in the Linear Guild, because it means one of the following four options:

1) He's Roy
2) He's Thog, and (probably) protected by one of Thog's two day-banes
3) He's Sabine, and (probably) protected by one of Thog's two day-banes
4) He's Nale, and (probably) protected by one of Thog's two day-banes

Given these numbers, this would have been a stupid defence to try if he was a villager, OOTS or mason, so I reckon it has to be one of these four. And given, also, that they can only kill one of us off each night, and that they can only do that if they manage not to overlap with the night baner, I reckon Murska's a shoe-in.

I'm none of those four. And the proof is out there, we just need to wait this one unproductive lynch or possibly more depending on the seer's luck to have someone safe to spread it. After all, I doubt anyone believes if I say I was scried. See, my specialty is not lying my way out of bandwagons, it's getting in touch with people early.

[Guancyto]

Actually, come to think of it...

Thog-Day Baner: PMs the narrator during the night phase to protect one person from the following day's lynch. This ability can be used twice throughout the game.

If Thog's used his day bane on Murska, the wording would indicate that counts toward the total whether or not he actually gets lynched. If Roy's used his day bane on Murska, nothing's wasted but today's killin'.

[Kyouhen]

Actually, come to think of it...



If Thog's used his day bane on Murska, the wording would indicate that counts toward the total whether or not he actually gets lynched. If Roy's used his day bane on Murska, nothing's wasted but today's killin'.

And here's where the problems start. If Murska's Thog or has Thog's protection, we don't just lose today's killing, we lose tomorrow's as well. And if he's got Roy's protection we'll lose the day after that's too just to find out who he knows. That's 3 days of no kills for the wolves to catch up on.

[Opeth_Freak]

Gaah! I'm sick of those weird theories thrown around. This assumed real seer, who scried Murska - please contact me. Or if you don't trust me (which is understandable), scry me and then contact me. I can be helpful with networking/ dealing with Murska's problem.

[Trixie]

Geesi & Kyouhen - hmm, you two seem awfully bent on saving Murska, or at least making sure he isn't checked - as you did a day before

And if the person who contacted me is a real mason, then neither of you nor Murska are one, so it cannot be explained by masons or seer trying to save the network.

So what if we waste one or two days? We've got five players to their one, and as soon as we have a solid lead, Haley can shoot them all without even trying, making up for any lost days, as voided wolves aren't terribly effective.

If, on the other hand, we do as you propose and begin blindly lynching good guys (85%, remember?), then we will end up without their abilities or any data to act upon.

[Guancyto]

I'm pretty sure my one vote isn't stopping this bandwagon. So one way or another, we'll have some idea what the deal is.

All I'm saying is, saying that he hasn't provided evidence isn't strictly fair: he can't be cleared until at least tomorrow, and we all knew that yesterday.

@V Hmm, fair point. Seer/proxy works much faster and more effectively than attempting to lynch him for three days straight.

[Kyouhen]

Geesi & Kyouhen - hmm, you two seem awfully bent on saving Murska, or at least making sure he isn't checked - as you did a day before

And if the person who contacted me is a real mason, then neither of you nor Murska are one, so it cannot be explained by masons or seer trying to save the network.

So what if we waste one or two days? We've got five players to their one, and as soon as we have a solid lead, Haley can shoot them all without even trying, making up for any lost days, as voided wolves aren't terribly effective.

If, on the other hand, we do as you propose and begin blindly lynching good guys (85%, remember?), then we will end up without their abilities or any data to act upon.

I'm not bent on saving him, I'm only interested in not spending a day with no lynch until the seer can get a proxy to tell us whether or not Murska's telling the truth.

[Jontom Xire]

Gaah! I'm sick of those weird theories thrown around. This assumed real seer, who scried Murska - please contact me. Or if you don't trust me (which is understandable), scry me and then contact me. I can be helpful with networking/ dealing with Murska's problem.

Opeth Freak - the same can be said of almost everyone playing this game. Why you?

Let the seer scry who they wish. It has the advantage that they are less likely to somehow be tricked by a wolf, and that they can choose someone they work well with (which is probably why, even when I get scried, the seer rarely gets in touch - at least not immediately ;)

Plus the wolves won't have any idea who the seer scried.

[Opeth_Freak]

Opeth Freak - the same can be said of almost everyone playing this game. Why you?

Because scrying me will be something more than just 'ah, +1 to innocents.'