MitD II: Lighting a candle in the Darkness

[hamishspence]

Maybe it's the difference between whistling and singing?

Sabines' also shows a coloured note- but hers is red rather than purple.

[Watcher]

And Elan's whistle note is the same as his normal color, green.

Roy's is light brown, though, so it's probably not racial.

[Kish]

And Xykon? Well, my guess is it's logical that he asked Redcloak.

This hinges on two variables.
1) Xykon's decision whether to ask Redcloak:
a. "Redcloak, tell me everything you know about him."
b. "Redcloak, tell me what he is."
c. "It would be humiliating to admit I don't know what he is."
d. "It would be potentially dangerous to let Redcloak know I don't know what that monster is."
e. "All I need to know is that he's really powerful, and it will be suitably dramatic to have him eat the protagonists when they show up."

Xykon isn't as stupid as he sometimes acts, but some people take a fact like that and expect him to be full-on David Xanatos. He's still intellectually lazy, and finds worrying about details annoying--and he's very touchy about suggestions that he's stupid. Conversely, he's smart enough to know that showing his vulnerabilities to Redcloak is dangerous.

2) Redcloak's answer, if the Xykon condition was met.
a. Full gushing disclosure.
b. "I don't know, Lord Xykon, but he certainly is powerful."
c. Something close enough to give Redcloak plausible deniability if Xykon ever finds out that it's not true.
d. The name of the creature's species, and, maybe, some of its abilities; not all.

aa or ba are certainly possible, but neither is certain.

[hamishspence]

Most of the times I've seen musical notes outside speech bubbles, they've been green- even when it's been neither Elan nor the Monster singing. Such as the cherubim when Roy's getting into Celestia.

Here is about the only exception I can think of- blue, rather than green:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0635.html

[Watcher]

Most of the times I've seen musical notes outside speech bubbles, they've been green- even when it's been neither Elan nor the Monster singing. Such as the cherubim when Roy's getting into Celestia.

Here is about the only exception I can think of- blue, rather than green:

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/oots0635.html

Thog.

Edit: and Belkar.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Why did MitD's music change?

Maybe it indicates pitch? Or musical style?

My guess it's just whatever colour was handy to Rich.

Grey Wolf

[hamishspence]

I wonder if there is a pattern?

Elan and the cherubim having similar colour wouldn't fit very well if colour was based on alignment, though.

And unless the monster has had an alignment change, it would be odd for its notes in earlier scenes to be similar to Thogs.

[Lord Bingo]

As uninterested as Xykon appears to be about everyone and anything but his own immediate goals I don't think he gives a flying f... what MitD actually is, being fully satisfied that he is scary and strong.

[Timberboar]

Neither have I insulted you, only criticised your method, just as you made derogatory comments about both my ability to understand you and the rational basis of this thread.

Yeah, you totally didn't belittle him. Also: the sky is pink.

No, I think you have no idea what MitD is. Which is not the problem. The problem is the "method" or "logic" you are suggesting: discarding evidence and saying that "the backstory will account for the abilities it cannot posses".

Your high and mighty-ness aside, it may be more likely than you think.

Who here would put it past Rich to throw out a few Red Herrings? I seem to recall him having mentioned doing exactly that in one of the commentaries, but I may be making that up.

Does that make it possible to guess? Sure. But only if you're willing to discard bad data.

Sifting the good from the bad? Well, that's a problem.

[averagejoe]

Don't watch SP, but isn't it pretty much a parody of (whatever is in the episode)? Did they make fun of Disney? Mind you, just by turning goody-two-shoes Mickey into an evil villain is pretty much parody already...

I only vaguely remember the episode, but Micky was the over-the-top evil mastermind of a villainous plot that involved the Jonas Brothers. Either way, the portrayal of Micky, and Disney, easily fit into parody, just like when SP does anything.

Your high and mighty-ness aside, it may be more likely than you think.

Who here would put it past Rich to throw out a few Red Herrings? I seem to recall him having mentioned doing exactly that in one of the commentaries, but I may be making that up.

Does that make it possible to guess? Sure. But only if you're willing to discard bad data.

Sifting the good from the bad? Well, that's a problem.

I've been following thread 2 since it started, and I am quite surprised by how many people have mistaken logical rigor for intellectual superiority. But that's neither here nor there, I suppose...

You mention sifting the good from the bad as a problem; you pretty much hit the nail on the head there. If there is bad data, then it needs some way to stand apart from the good data, otherwise the MitD doesn't fit the guessable criteria. Saying that some data is bad, but we have no way of telling the good from the bad, or even how much of it is bad, is the same thing as saying we have no data. If someone would give a reason why certain data should be preferred over others then perhaps a discussion could be had about the viability of this. However, with no reason to prefer any data over any other data, all you're saying is that we know nothing about the MitD, something that I, at least, am not willing to accept. Rich could have been lying about the monster being guessable, but I do like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[DavidBV]

If someone would give a reason why certain data should be preferred over others then perhaps a discussion could be had about the viability of this.

I will try, if you allow me to.

1)Redcloak knows what MiTD is.
2)Big Game hunters know what MiTD is.

None of them have ever expressed anything odd about MiTD appearance. Big Game hunters where surprised that it could talk, but, for example, if it was missing one head (dread linnorm) probably we should have heard it from them. So everything related to being a strong, ugly(yet beautiful) carnivore shouldn't be ruled out.

On the other side, the various captors of this creature don't seem to place him under magical wards to prevent its casting abilities. That would be a big oversight from Redcloak, and very unlike him.

Now we have to ask ourselves, would Redcloak be surprised if he learned that MiTD has such a powerful ability as Escape? would he be surprised to know how smart he is regarding rituals? that would prove those are not racial abilities, but plot-gained abilities that make MiTD unique. We have no evidence as Rich has in both cases placed Redcloak out of the scene, but my belief is that he would be very, very surprised if he knew that MiTD has such a powerful skill at his disposal. If, in the future, we see Redcloak surprised about this, we will be certain about those two being "red herrings" regarding MiTD race.

[averagejoe]

Now we have to ask ourselves, would Redcloak be surprised if he learned that MiTD has such a powerful ability as Escape? would he be surprised to know how smart he is regarding rituals? that would prove those are not racial abilities, but plot-gained abilities that make MiTD unique. We have no evidence as Rich has in both cases placed Redcloak out of the scene, but my belief is that he would be very, very surprised if he knew that MiTD has such a powerful skill at his disposal. If, in the future, we see Redcloak surprised about this, we will be certain about those two being "red herrings" regarding MiTD race.

See, this is where it all falls apart. As you've admitted, it pretty much boils down to because you think so. However, to tackle other aspects of your argument:

You mention magical wards to prevent casting. However, he really isn't a captive of Xykon, he's a minion. At no point have we seen evidence that he wants to leave but can't. Forget casting, that box shouldn't be able to physically restrain him. I can't remember SoD well enough to comment on the Big Game Hunters, but the monster has so far been going along with X and R by choice.

[Shale]

The other possibility is that MitD's race usually has those abilities, but Redcloak assumes that MitD himself can't use them because, to the best of Team Evil's knowledge, he hasn't done so ever. Really, has the MitD ever given them any reason to overestimate him?

[DavidBV]

See, this is where it all falls apart. As you've admitted, it pretty much boils down to because you think so.

Well, that's the problem with theories. Mine doesn't come out of nowhere, I think it has some basis, but I am the first to admit it doesn't come from straight evidence. Just like Evolution theory :)

We're getting almost a new clue per week now, so probably soon we will find out if I'm at a dead end or actually on track.

You mention magical wards to prevent casting. However, he really isn't a captive of Xykon, he's a minion. At no point have we seen evidence that he wants to leave but can't. Forget casting, that box shouldn't be able to physically restrain him. I can't remember SoD well enough to comment on the Big Game Hunters, but the monster has so far been going along with X and R by choice.

I agree on MiTD not wanting to escape, but they want him confined most of the time nonetheless, probably so it doesn't mess with anything. And they confined him only physically. See how not warding him for casting has screwed Xykon with the Escape incident... if Redcloak really knows that MiTD race has such powers and he has neglected such a threat, then he has been an idiot.

[Timberboar]

You mention sifting the good from the bad as a problem; you pretty much hit the nail on the head there. If there is bad data, then it needs some way to stand apart from the good data, otherwise the MitD doesn't fit the guessable criteria.

Please don't read too much into the Giant's quote regarding it being possible to guess.

I'm going to guess that the MITD is, in fact, a kobold. Does that go against just about every single bit of data this thread and its predecessor has managed to collate?

Certainly. But it's still possible to guess a kobold (Proof: I just did), so it fits the Giant's given criteria of being guessable.

Conclusion: That "hint" is meaningless. "Guessable" is too broad to mean anything.

But that's neither here nor there. You can hide behind the facade of logical rigor and the scientific method, but rudeness is rudeness. You can dismiss or disprove someone's theories without mocking them, or point out fallacies without passive-aggressively calling them an idiot.

[Selene]

No, what she meant was if you are an IP lawyer. It'd be nice to have a professional opinion on the matter.

Yes, thank you. That is what I meant. I would also like to hear from an IP lawyer if one happens to be around. I'm just going by the way IP law and the Berne Convention have been explained to me by various copyright agents and fellow brokers.

Well, that's the problem with theories. Mine doesn't come out of nowhere, I think it has some basis, but I am the first to admit it doesn't come from straight evidence. Just like Evolution theory :)

You know what? Don't even go there, because I suspect that forum rules prevent proper refutation of that analogy. But evolutionary theory is most definitely evidence-based.

[Joerg]

That's why we now have Balors, Treants, and Halflings.

So why can't the MitD be a "Snarlox"? Or something with some entirely different name, which looks similar to a Snorlax (in stick-figure art) and has the same properties as a Snorlax?

[Grey_Wolf_c]

So why can't the MitD be a "Snarlox"? Or something with some entirely different name, which looks similar to a Snorlax (in stick-figure art) and has the same properties as a Snorlax?

That is a good question. As far as I know (and again, remember I'm not a lawyer), there is a short answer and a long answer. The short answer is that Nintendo has far more lawyers than the Tolkiens.

The long answer is that using that kind of trick is a very dangerous ground to tread. Remember that this would be argued in front of a judge, and if "Snarlox" is similar enough, that would give good grounds for Nintendo to sue. If it was not similar enough, then it wouldn't be recognisable and you might as well use your own invented glutton instead. If OotS was a hobby for Rich, this would probably be acceptable, but one he started selling it for money, such distinctions are important, and a wise person simply stears clear of the whole mess.

Could Rich have done something along those lines? I find it very unlikely. Rich has not shown any tendencies along those lines; he clearly prefers calling a spade a spade, and if that gets close to IP infringement, then he makes a joke of it and moves on.

You know what? Don't even go there, because I suspect that forum rules prevent proper refutation of that analogy. But evolutionary theory is most definitely evidence-based.

Seconded. I've been dealing with creationists close to a decade now, and the one thing I've learnt is that there is no scientific theory with more hard evidence than the ToE. DavidBV's affirmation has given me a good insight into his head, though.

Grey Wolf

[DavidBV]

So why can't the MitD be a "Snarlox"? Or something with some entirely different name, which looks similar to a Snorlax (in stick-figure art) and has the same properties as a Snorlax?

He could probably get away with it, but certainly the risk is great, specially in the US where laws are more strict.

On the other hand, he *may* have been authorized to use a copyrighted character, that happens all the time. So I really doubt the copyright stuff is a hint at all.

[Raging Gene Ray]

The main problem with MitD being a Snorlax or anything similar to a Pokemon is that whatever it's identity is, it's going to be a major plot point, not something Rich would waste for a joke.

[DavidBV]

The main problem with MitD being a Snorlax or anything similar to a Pokemon is that whatever it's identity is, it's going to be a major plot point, not something Rich would waste for a joke.

I agree with this. So far, when Rich has added something like this (page 2), it's just a joke and can be removed from the story with no effect on the plot. I would be very surprised if MiTD "revelation" would be such a thing, and why not, disappointed.

[Lord Bingo]

Please don't read too much into the Giant's quote regarding it being possible to guess.

I'm going to guess that the MITD is, in fact, a kobold. Does that go against just about every single bit of data this thread and its predecessor has managed to collate?

Certainly. But it's still possible to guess a kobold (Proof: I just did), so it fits the Giant's given criteria of being guessable.

Conclusion: That "hint" is meaningless. "Guessable" is too broad to mean anything.

I'd actually like to believe that by "guessable" Rich meant: "possible to arrive at through evidence based deduction".

[Grey_Wolf_c]

I'd actually like to believe that by "guessable" Rich meant: "possible to arrive at through evidence based deduction".

I like to think so too; indeed, one would presume that is the belief of anyone participating in this thread. If it is not possible to deduce what MitD is from the clues dropped by Rich, then what we are doing here is foolish, and anyone that believes that by closing their eyes, and opening a monster manual at a random page is as likely to gets us the solution as by carefully deducing from the evidence has no real business in a thread such as this one.

Which is not to say that the clues will lead us easily or quickly to the correct conclusion. There are a number of assumptions that come from parsing a stick webcomic for clues which may have led us to posit a characteristic that we should not have. Future comics may lead us to revisit any of the starting clues; indeed, it has happened already a few times (as with his ability to see in the darkness or lack thereof). Which is not the same as saying "the clues are useless because I can't think of anything that fits them, and so any guess is as good as any other".

Grey Wolf

[Timberboar]

... (A)nyone that believes that ... has no real business in a thread such as this one.

On the contrary, I believe a new perspective might be helpful.

The problem with the method you're using is that we have no real way of telling the clues from the red herrings and no way of discerning the hints from the gags. As a result, we're left with a list of criteria that is almost certainly not 100% trustworthy. If it were... well, if any online community could have ferreted out the answer by now, I have faith that it would have been this one.

In light of that, throwing out theories because they don't match one or two criteria seems inherently flawed. To make matters worse, we have no real way of verifying if we ever hit upon the answer until such time as the big reveal.

I think time would be better spent not looking for a definitive answer, but rather cataloging the likelihood of each theory.

For example, let's look at two guesses proposed in this thread. (Examples are for argument's sake. I did not do the research to properly quantify each's likelihood.)

1) The dread linnorm: Matches 78% of criteria (or however much). Somewhat likely.
2) Kobold: Matches 2% of criteria. Highly unlikely.

Using this method, we can quantify each theory and update them as new data becomes available, always having an up-to-date picture of each-and-every popular theory.

[Silaor]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we're trying to guess what species the MitD is. We know it has unusual traits for a member of this species. Any clue we see can't be counted as characteristic of his species until it's stated one way or the other.

I mean, we're using the fact that it can talk and it shouldn't ... That it was found in a part of the world it should be rare (it could mean "in this environment", it could mean "on this continent"). It's ugly yet strangely appealing. It should be more scary than Xykon, whatever that means (we don't know it means CR. I agree it's probably it, but I aknowledge it may mean something else).

We don't know that members of its species can typically cause earthquakes (Roaches' knowledge can be explained by prior experience), much less Escape. I'm not discounting these because they're hard to fit, I just think they're less important because we don't know if they're relevant. I'd prefer if we could find something that fits everything, but if we can't find it, I'll prefer something that fits the facts, and not an assumptions :

Fact : the MitD caused the Escape - Assumption : it is of a species who can duplicate that effect.
Fact : Xykon thinks the MitD should be the scariest thing in the tower - Assumption : It means that his CR his greater than the Silver Dragon's.

Most of the interpretations in this thread and in the summary of the first one seem reasonable, and I agree with them. But it's not because I can't think of another explanation that there isn't one, so I'm more likely to accept something that fits everything except Escape than something that fits everything except Number of Heads.

In short, maybe we should separate clues relevant to the Mitd's species (what it is) and to the MitD's individuality (who he is).

If we want to guess more about who he is, we should take into account that the strange circumstances that allow him to speak "in Common, no less" and that placed him in "this part of the world" can also probably explain why he has those powers, Occam's Razor, guessability (is that an actual word ?) and all.

[Kish]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we're trying to guess what species the MitD is. We know it has unusual traits for a member of this species. Any clue we see can't be counted as characteristic of his species until it's stated one way or the other.

Then we cannot possibly figure out what he is, Rich's line about it being possible to guess is a weird mind game at best, and this is entirely pointless.

Somehow, I don't think a premise that leads to that conclusion is a good one.

My cat adds, 74444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 4444444444

[Timberboar]

Then we cannot possibly figure out what he is, Rich's line about it being possible to guess is a weird mind game at best, and this is entirely pointless.

You can dismiss that possibility (bad science) or you can account for it (good science).

[Schadrach]

Presuming it was published early enough (or it existed in a previous edition, in some book I don't personally have), I'm still liking an Ephemeral Hangman with the Phrenic template (which as I understand doesn't physically change it's appearance) and it's hit dice advanced until at least the bottom of the range where it grows to Huge. It seems to cover all (or at least more than most of the suggestions) of the requirements.

Quick attempt at throwing together a stat block for such a creature, bear with me, I may have made one or more errors.

Monster in the Dark (Advanced Phrenic Ephemeral Hangman)

Huge Aberration (Extraplanar)
Hit Dice: 23d8+161 (265 hp)
Initiative: +7
Speed: 30'
Armor Class: 22 (-2 size, +3 Dex, +11 natural)
Attack: Tendril +26 (2d6+10 plus slow)
Full Attack: 4 Tendrils +26 (2d6+10 plus slow) and bite +23 (2d8+5 plus slow)
Space/Reach: 10'/10' (20' with tendrils in shadowy illumination or darkness)
Special Attacks: Constrict 2d6+10 plus slow, improved grab, slow, Psi-like abilities
Special Qualities: Blindsight 60', darkvision 60', regeneration 5, shadow pocket, step into shadow, naturally psionic, PR 33,
Abilities: Str 30, Dex 14, Con 24, Int 10, Wis 16, Cha 20
Skill Points: 46
Feats: Alertness, Improved Initiative, Multiattack, Weapon Focus (Tendril), plus 4 additional
Environment: Any underground or urban
Organization: Solitary
CR: 14
Treasure: None
Alignment: Always Chaotic Evil

Psi-likes are from the phrenic template. The regeneration is in effect whenever the creature is in darkness or shadowy illumination, except versus spells with the [Light] descriptor. Shadow pocket lets it fit in a single 5' square so long as it is in shadowy illumination or darkness. They only speak under rarely, and when they do it's in Undercommon. They also prefer eating the small and weak, especially babies (making the baby eating bit in the comic an actual attempt to give him something he'd like, and his being...unusual making him not like it).

Biggest issues I see are mental stats not matching what is assumed and it's CR being a touch low. There is room to advance it another 10 HD, if needed (but I figured that accounted for daddy being bigger).

[Grey_Wolf_c]

In light of that, throwing out theories because they don't match one or two criteria seems inherently flawed.

We don't throw out anything because it doesn't match all the clues. That is why there is a list of everything that has been minimally defended.

But of course, you are not talking about individual suggestion getting "thrown out" - you are referring to the spat I had with DavidBV - but I cannot defend my actions without violating board rules, so I will only say this: one thing is to accept that your suggestion doesn't match all the clues, and another to simply dismiss anything you can't match as "will be provided by some backstory we will be told in the future", and furthermore suggest that such approach is better than methodological rationality.

I think time would be better spent not looking for a definitive answer, but rather cataloging the likelihood of each theory.

For example, let's look at two guesses proposed in this thread. (Examples are for argument's sake. I did not do the research to properly quantify each's likelihood.)

1) The dread linnorm: Matches 78% of criteria (or however much). Somewhat likely.
2) Kobold: Matches 2% of criteria. Highly unlikely.

Using this method, we can quantify each theory and update them as new data becomes available, always having an up-to-date picture of each-and-every popular theory.

No, using this method all you get is people disagreeing about percentages. The division between "forerunners" and "one-off" that I did is already fraught with subjectivity, with people complaining that members of one listing or the other be moved; it would be so much worse if someone (me? you? the person proposing it?) had to assign a number to each suggestion.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we're trying to guess what species the MitD is. We know it has unusual traits for a member of this species. Any clue we see can't be counted as characteristic of his species until it's stated one way or the other.

Then we have no clues. None at all. Take the ones you suggested: speech and environment. They may be clues as to his species (can't talk, doesn't live in jungle), or they may not be (it's a baby, and thus too young to talk; it's a bird, that flies south for the winter). If we discard every clue because we cannot be completely certain it applies to the species, we have nothing. Maybe this approach in another circumstance could work, but this is a comic, Rich is not going to break the fourth wall to tell us "MitD's species is (such and such)" - so we have to remain flexible in interpreting the clues.

Most of the interpretations in this thread and in the summary of the first one seem reasonable, and I agree with them. But it's not because I can't think of another explanation that there isn't one, so I'm more likely to accept something that fits everything except Escape than something that fits everything except Number of Heads.

And yet both are of equal weight. It is as likely that MitD can teleport because he is a freak for his species (that can't teleport anyone) as that he is a freak for having only one head (when his species usually has two).

Equally likely, I say, because in absence of evidence, one is reduced to Okham's razor: the theory that requires the fewest assumption is more likely to be correct. Now, you want to suggest that MitD is a faun, who got blessed by Dionysus and got powers to create earthquakes and teleport, in exchange for a huge appetite? Go right ahead; but don't be surprised when people don't like it, since while it fits all the clues, it is doing so by positing a backstory we have never been hinted at.

In short, maybe we should separate clues relevant to the Mitd's species (what it is) and to the MitD's individuality (who he is).

If you think that can be done, go ahead and try. But even the most basic clues, I'd be very surprised if we could really tell they're unique to MitD or general to his species, except his general innocence and ignorance, which seem to be MitD-specific.

You can dismiss that possibility (bad science) or you can account for it (good science).

You have them the wrong way around. Assuming that the creator can screw with you is bad science: e.g. gravity works because angels push you down, leaving the possibility that if the Supreme Being wants it to, you can float into the air.

Obviously, the basic rule of good science is a little more shaky when the Creator is Rich Burlew, but like in the Real World, you can only hope that he is consistent and not out to mess with your head, because otherwise every single clue might just be him messing with your head, and they are no more likely than a random guess.

Grey Wolf

[Timberboar]

But of course, you are not talking about individual suggestion getting "thrown out" - you are referring to the spat I had with DavidBV - but I cannot defend my actions without violating board rules

Actually, I had moved past that and attempted to contribute to the thread as a whole by suggesting an alternate method of tallying data -- one based less on absolutes, and more on probabilities.

But I get the impression that any ideas that violate the groupthink are unwelcome here, so I shall leave you to your "progress."

Have fun fumbling around in the dark.