OOTS death pool (thread #4)

[Sniffnoy]

So martianmister PMed me saying his computer had crashed and asking me to take over the death pool thread again. Sorry for any mess in transferring stuff over. As always, if I've misrecorded your bet, or failed to record it, please let me know.ca

(For those encountering this thread for the first time, by the way, the thread was originally started shortly after Tsukiko's death. So no it is not very old.)

Here then, once again, are the rules, as copied over from the original thread, with some clarifying additions of my own:

For those who are unaware of the term or just have a certain red and black mercenary on the mind, a Dead Pool is a game where you take bets on who will be the next to die. There won't be any actual money up for grabs, of course, so the only real prize is bragging rights.

Whenever a character is killed off, we will begin a new round of betting. Anybody who had bet on that character's death will be awarded a point. Then everybody (even the people who didn't guess right), will be asked to make a new bet for the next round.

I'd like to set a few ground rules, though.

1. a) The character who dies generally has to have at least ten appearances in their name. For example, if the Order of the Stick were to suddenly come across a Cave Troll, you would not be allowed to bet on the Troll. The characters you bet on have to have some significance.

b) If the character happens to be very significant to the story and has had enough dialogue, I am willing to make certain exceptions. I will make it clear which characters qualify.

2. You can only bet on one character at a time.

3. You can not change your bet unless a character has been killed off. For example, if you'd nominated Belkar and a dragon were to swoop in and attack Nale, you wouldn't be allowed to suddenly change your vote to Nale.

3a. If you don't explicitly change your bet, you're assumed to have re-bet on the same person until you state otherwise. Explicitly stating that you're re-betting on the same person has no effect (i.e. you can still change your bet after doing this).

3b. A death only counts for these purposes if either someone has bet on the character or the character has at least 11 appearances. (Changed from 10 as of May 11 2018.)

4. You are allowed to bet on the same person more than once. For example, let's say that you had bet on O'Chul. If Lien were to be killed off, you would still be allowed to keep betting on O'Chul's death for as many rounds as you wish.

5. Characters who die in flashbacks do not count. For example, if the comic were to flashback to ten years ago and we saw Girard Draketooth dying of old age, then it would not count as a death. They have to die during the actual events of the comic.

5a. This only applies to flashbacks to before the events of OOTS as a whole.

6. Characters who are resurrected still count as having died. If Jirix were to be killed and then immediately resurrected by Redcloak, then it wouldn't change anything. The people who bet on his death would still get the points.

6a. Transitioning directly from life to undeath also counts as a death. Thus, if a character is found to have become undead, this counts as a death, regardless of whether or not he died before becoming undead.

7. Multiple people are allowed to vote for the same character.

8.a. If a character is put in a dangerous situation and then later discovered to have died off-panel, anybody who most recently bet on that character will be awarded a point upon discovery of the corpse (or undead body). For example, imagine if Belkar were to get lost in the forest. If the Order of the Stick were to stumble upon his corpse several strips later and learned that he had starved to death, then anybody who bet on Belkar would receive a point as soon as his death is confirmed.

b. However, if this death conflicts with rule 5 and a character from flashbacks is discovered to have retroactively died (before the comic's timeline), then no points will be awarded. For example, if somebody were to bet on Girard Draketooth, and the Order of the Stick stumbled upon his skeleton, then nobody would get a point.

9. If two characters are killed in the same strip, then points will be rewarded to anybody who bet on either character. For example, if Blackwing were to be eaten by a dog at the beginning of a strip and then V were to be killed by the same dog during the last panel of the same strip, then anybody who voted for either V or Blackwing would receive a point.

10. If characters who can't be killed by conventional means are temporarily destroyed, it will count as a death. For example, if Xykon were to be destroyed, then anybody who bet on him will still get points, even if his phylactery survives and he regenerates a few strips later.

11. You are not allowed to bet on a group. You have to choose a specific individual. For example, you would not be able to say "I bet that somebody from the Linear Guild will die". You have to specify which member it will be.

12. Characters who die in supplementary material do not qualify for the Death Pool. They have to die within the actual comic. For example, if "Haleo and Julelan" were to feature the non-canon deaths of Haley and Elan, then it would be ineligible for the pool.

13. If a death is later revealed to have been an illusion, and no non-illusory deaths have since occurred, the state of the thread will be rolled back, with the following exception: Anyone who bet for the first time since then will not have their bet rolled back, but will be allowed to change it.

Specific Rulings

-The Demon Roaches do not count on the Death Pool. None of them have any individuality or names.
-The flumphs are also disqualified for a similar reason.
New Rulings:
-If Xykon (or another lich) has his phylactery destroyed while his body is destroyed, this does count as a second death, so long as it occurs in a separate strip; otherwise it does not. More generally, if a character dies twice (according to any of the things that would count here as a death) in one strip, it counts as only one death.
-The character has to actually die. Dying in an illusion doesn't count.
-A vampire being reduced to 0 HP and forced to turn to mist and return to its coffin doesn't count as a death. (This ruling will be changed if something happens that shows it clearly should be counted as a death, like the vampire being shown with X-eyes.)
-Being unmade by the Snarl counts as a death.
-If two characters are revealed to be the same person, their bets are combined.
-Bets on Durkon and bets on the High Priest of Hel are considered to be the same.
-The death of the Vampire Dwarf with Blue Beard and Balding Head in #1119 counts, though I've changed the rules slightly to make this less likely in the future.
-For an inanimate "character" like Banjo, being destroyed will count as dying.

Let me also add: If you are making a post with a bet in it, please be clear about it. That is to say, either include it in the first line (best if the post is just 1 line or so); or else go and bold your bet so it stands out. I will read it and add it even if you don't do this, but it makes it easier for me if you do.

Most recent death (that counts for the purpose of changing bets): Nameless Vampire (implied in #1175 on 2019-08-14)

Now, then:

The current point totals:

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4 points:
Sniffnoy (Nale, Crystal, Vampire Dwarf, "Durkon")
ti'esar (Malack, Zz'dtri, Ponchula, "Gontor")

3 points:
Pory (Yukyuk, Malack, Nale)

2 points:
PhantomDennis (Yukyuk, Durkon)
Seharvepernfan (Yukyuk, Malack)
Squark (Yukyuk, Zz'dtri)
VanaGalen (Durkon, Malack)
Heksefatter (Durkon, Nale)
theinsulabot (Durkon, Nale)
onionbreath (Durkon, Nale)
Sunken Valley (Malack, Zz'dtri)
FujinAkari (Malack, Zz'dtri)
sam79 (Malack, Zz'dtri)
Alabenson (Nale, Nameless Vampire)
ZidIles (Bozzok, "Durkon")
FlawedParadigm (Ponchula, "Gontor")
DeliaP ("Durkon", "Gontor")
Kish ("Durkon", "Gontor")
Askthepizzaguy ("Durkon", Nameless Vampire)
Elenna ("Durkon", Nameless Vampire)

1 point:

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Ravian (Yukyuk)
ella ventic (Yukyuk)
ThePhantasm (Yukyuk)
Giddon (Yukyuk)
Johanz (Yukyuk)
Cleverdan22 (Yukyuk)
Dr. Gamera (Yukyuk)
Endon the White (Yukyuk)
Petey7 (Yukyuk)
olthar (Yukyuk)
Orsen (Yukyuk)
Bad Hair Day (Durkon)
Jan Mattys (Durkon)
Knight.Anon (Durkon)
The Squirrel (Durkon)
MarchiMcFly (Durkon)
trufflehound (Durkon)
Winter (Durkon)
rgrekejin (Durkon)
The Pilgrim (Durkon)
Cisturn (Malack)
Dark Matter (Malack)
Keeper of Starlight (Malack)
Loreni333 (Malack)
Ulysses WkAmil (Malack)
Wizard (Malack)
Saithis Bladewing (Malack)
The_Tentacle (Malack)
Liliet (Malack)
padraig (Malack)
chessdudeguy (Malack)
Gift Jeraff (Malack)
Bulldog Psion (Malack)
gorocz (Malack)
Rui (Malack)
John_Richards (Malack)
Xenrei (Malack)
Warren Dew (Malack)
Flame of Anor (Malack)
Onyavar (Malack)
Peregrine Crow (Malack)
WastedTalent (Malack)
Zerobot (Malack)
Yumori123 (Malack)
GreatEscape_13 (Zz'dtri)
Emulgator (Zz'dtri)
EnragedFilia (Zz'dtri)
Gurgeh (Zz'dtri)
Vulkos (Zz'dtri)
Obnoxious Hydra (Zz'dtri)
Emperor Flumph (Zz'dtri)
curtis (Zz'dtri)
CountD (Zz'dtri)
Nyes the Dark (Zz'dtri)
ThomasMink (Zz'dtri)
Cuthalion (Zz'dtri)
Reltzik (Zz'dtri)
Kornaki (Zz'dtri)
r2excelsior (Zz'dtri)
Rakoa (Zz'dtri)
durron597 (Zz'dtri)
BroomGuys (Zz'dtri)
Sabeki (Zz'dtri)
Ellye (Nale)
AlfredAmeoba (Nale)
squidbreath (Nale)
bengator (Nale)
Dragongirl (Nale)
sparky9042 (Nale)
Byzantine2 (Nale)
Stormlock (Nale)
Silverionmox (Nale)
Rob Roy (Nale)
AshesOfOld (Nale)
Avangor (Nale)
RedneckTex95 (Nale)
2323mike (Nale)
WindStruck (Nale)
CircleOfTheRock (Ponchula)
Kyndraer ("Durkon")
braveheart ("Durkon")
Oudyn ("Durkon")
Disc Lorde ("Durkon")
Bob_McSurly ("Durkon")
Jaxzan Proditor ("Gontor")
jwhouk ("Gontor")
Harrisonvinny ("Gontor")
Caerulea ("Gontor")
heretic (Nameless Vampire)

1/2 point: GnomeGninjas (Demon Roaches)

The current bets:

Kilkil:

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RSLee
Squeejee
Cizak
The Glyphstone
EmperorSarda
Zigg'rrauglurr
Ferreroni
Anne Calie
Mr. Pants
ThePhantasm
Verithrax
Johanz
Toy Killer
Sajach
Ninja Dragon
Vovix
137ben
Olinser
Sorator
white lancer
The Squirrel
Xhosant
Darkefang
Demolator
Peregrine Crow
Oko and Qailee

Ian Starshine:

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Adoendithas
Coopenhagen21
nohamotyo

Jirix:

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Mr. Pink
SheepInDisguise
bluewurm
ORione
EternalRuin
DemonRoach
twinkletoes

Geoff:

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zimmerwald1915
Alaba Blackveil
Bulldog Psion
ArnoudX
Zjoot

Belkar Bitterleaf:

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sparkyinbozo
Anarion
Vemynal
weso12
martianmister
toughluck
Dr. Gamera
Petey7
Silver2195
Dracarot
Dark Elf Bard
Hydra Druid
Icedaemon
Peelee
Turgon9357
MeanMrsMustard
Felixc-91
SowZ
isoriveil
TheTeaMustFlow
GnomeGninjas
Drynwyn
HedgehogRanger
Torrasque
Redgoblin
lio45
Winter
Morph Bark
DrBurr
Syklone
Minitroll
Prowl
MarchiMcFly
mhsmith
DoctorStandard
WastedTalent
Kornaki
sparky9042
blueblade
Heksefatter
Bedinsis
Ben Kenobi
Infinite
Sir_Leorik
declinator
dmaxno
Ulthwithian
ajp1011
Pory
gadren
necrochicken
Celticbear
Insertmeme
Ezeze
Dellis
b_jonas

Xykon:

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Agnostik
Poppy Appletree
Xihirli
Kish

Mr. Scruffy:

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IrnBruAddict
LudiDrizzt
Iferus
The Grimmace
Emperordaniel
lycunadari
ReturnOfTheKing
Rinazina
Papaya101

General Tarquin:

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G-Man Graves
Miklus
Forbiddenwar
smasher0404
873
Dracon1us
androkguz
Rui
PhantomDennis
rgrekejin
hopeful1212
Dungeon_Crawler
The Pilgrim
davidbofinger
ChaosOS
oppyu
Rob Roy
Warren Dew
Sunken Valley
Firemage
Cuthalion
Silverionmox
Sabeki
Tanar Aerdoth
DarrenLocke
TRH
Dark Matter
trian
Klanos
David Argall
Zar Peter
Hurkle
SmaugTheYounger

Thog:

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Sith_Happens
Oscredwin
The Zoat
EnragedFilia

Elan:

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Uchiha Richard
TKoTD
dadada
Son of A Lich!

Enor:

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Hazzardevil

Miko Miyazaki:

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blackjack217

Haley Starshine:

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The Second
gorocz
PandoricaJem
prism6691

Sabine:

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Lord Ruby34
onionbreath
WindStruck

Niu:

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t209

Qarr:

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Lintecarka
Ravian
darlingt
sr123
Arkhosia

Vaarsuvius:

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Sonata Arctica
Gorm_the_DBA
McDougal
Christ0ph3r4
Magentamist
Sniccups

Celia:

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Zmeoaice

Empress of Blood:

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Savil
2323mike

Amun-Zora:

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rewinn

O-Chul:

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CRtwenty
rs2excelsior
Ornithologist
Moo, I'm Human
Black Socks

Laurin Shattersmith:

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Mollez
dps

Nale:

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ravenmeister

Spiky the Barbed Devil:

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Rakoa
sam79

Miron Shewdanker:

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zql
Thrillhouse
ikosaeder
ImperatorV

Roy Greenhilt:

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Psionic Dog

Julio Scoundrél:

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Procyonpi
Aran nu tasar

Hieronymus Grubwiggler:

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ella ventic

Bandana Secundus:

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ramakidin
Markozeta
Generic-Guy

Wrecan:

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Rorrik

Lien:

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anjxed
Gift Jeraff
trtl
georger0171

Felix:

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Mister Tom
Fin
DeliaP

Hilgya Firehelm:

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username1

Sigdi Thundershield:

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GM_3826

Minrah Shaleshoe:

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Snowblaze
Vulsutyr

Pompey:

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Rollin

Durkon Thundershield:

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FlawedParadigm

Greyview:

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Caerulea

Oona:

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Alexandrite
World Illusion

Monster in the Darkness:

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hustlertwo

Banjo:

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Persolus
yeetusmcgeetus

Sunny:

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Caedorus

Once again, if I've misrecorded your bet, or failed to record it, please let me know.

And, because I want to, some betting stats:

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Number of bets and number of appearances. Note: Number of appearances will not be updated with every comic, so those numbers are not necessarily up to date (they're currently as of #1267). Look at the number of appearances thread if you want up-to-date numbers.

bets	app	char
57	553	Belkar Bitterleaf
33	 93	General Tarquin
28	 28	Kilkil
 8	218	Mr. Scruffy
 7	 22	Jirix
 6	488	Vaarsuvius
 5	 16	Geoff
 5	 49	Qarr
 5	 63	O-Chul
 4	 13	Miron Shewdanker
 4	 61	Lien
 4	 68	Thog
 4	119	Xykon
 4	604	Haley Starshine
 4	610	Elan
 3	 23	Felix
 3	 28	Ian Starshine
 3	 61	Bandana Secundus
 3	 80	Sabine
 2	 12	Spiky the Barbed Devil
 2	 16	Julio Scoundrél
 2	 20	Empress of Blood
 2	 21	Laurin Shattersmith
 2	 23	Banjo
 2	 24	Oona
 2	 96	Minrah Shaleshoe
 1	  7	Hieronymus Grubwiggler
 1	  9	Amun-Zora
 1	 11	Pompey
 1	 15	Wrecan
 1	 18	Sunny
 1	 19	Niu
 1	 21	Greyview
 1	 25	Enor
 1	 34	Sigdi Thundershield
 1	 49	Hilgya Firehelm
 1	 69	Miko Miyazaki
 1	 75	Celia
 1	 85	Monster in the Darkness
 1	117	Nale
 1	528	Durkon Thundershield
 1	678	Roy Greenhilt

Links to old threads:
Thread #3
Thread #2
Original thread

[Sniffnoy]

A note: ti'esar's bet was not changed, because as old as it was, it was still after Yukyuk's death.

And yeah, Belkar doesn't count as dead/undead yet.

[Seharvepernfan]

Is the rule "Must have appeared in at least 10 strips" still active? I'll have to look to make sure, but I think some of the characters that are currently being bet upon don't qualify, but then I think Yukyuk didn't either...

[Flame of Anor]

*rubs hands together in anticipation of winning*

[Sniffnoy]

Is the rule "Must have appeared in at least 10 strips" still active? I'll have to look to make sure, but I think some of the characters that are currently being bet upon don't qualify, but then I think Yukyuk didn't either...

Amun-Zora's the only one bet on who hasn't appeared in 10 strips. Though you're right, Yukyuk hadn't at the time either.

Note the use of the word "generally" in rule 1 -- 10 strips isn't a firm rule; rather it's more of a means of enforcing the rule that "the characters you bet on must have some significance". Certainly appearing in 10 strips is sufficient, but it isn't necessary. Both RSLee and I have allowed bets on characters without 10 appearances when we considered the character to have some significance.

[FujinAkari]

... although I could -totally- cheat and say Belkar (since he hasn't technically died yet) I am going to guess Malack since I think he will die shortly after Belkar and I kinda feel like putting down a bet for Belkar -now- would violate the spirit of the game.

I would almost suggest a rule specifying that votes cast during a combat sequence won't be counted if the character in question dies during -that- combat sequence, though I'm unsure how easily that could be monitored.

[Seharvepernfan]

I wish we could somehow limit the votes to only being voted immediately after the last death. For instance, only the votes that were stated in the week following Yukyuks' death. I'm aware that the thread would die in that case, though. I mean, I voted on Malack about a year ago...

[Flame of Anor]

I wish we could somehow limit the votes to only being voted immediately after the last death. For instance, only the votes that were stated in the week following Yukyuks' death. I'm aware that the thread would die in that case, though. I mean, I voted on Malack about a year ago...

Maybe bets could be not counted if they were made, say, two strips or less before the character dies? With exceptions, of course, for deaths that occur less than two strips apart.

[Seharvepernfan]

Maybe bets could be not counted if they were made, say, two strips or less before the character dies? With exceptions, of course, for deaths that occur less than two strips apart.

I'd like that, at least. However, it still requires someone to keep track of when each strip is posted.

[ella ventic]

Amun-Zora's the only one bet on who hasn't appeared in 10 strips. Though you're right, Yukyuk hadn't at the time either.

Note the use of the word "generally" in rule 1 -- 10 strips isn't a firm rule; rather it's more of a means of enforcing the rule that "the characters you bet on must have some significance". Certainly appearing in 10 strips is sufficient, but it isn't necessary. Both RSLee and I have allowed bets on characters without 10 appearances when we considered the character to have some significance.

Yep, that about covers it. :nods sagely:
Just to be needlessly precise, though, yes, bets on Yukyuk were allowed before he had accumulated 10 appearances and RSLee explicitly said that they would have counted had that still been the case when he died. ...But the point was moot in any case since at his actual death his strip count was up to 14. </pedantry>

[Bulldog Psion]

Heh, I couldn't remember who I bet for long ago. As it turned out, it was Belkar Bitterleaf.

[Kish]

*rubs hands together in anticipation of winning*

Indeed. Victory tastes like...blood.

[lio45]

There should definitely be a ~two-comic buffer before any bet gains validity... otherwise, the best strategy by far is to not bet until someone's in deep, and then bet on that character. The "death process" of a character is, statistically, pretty likely to begin at least one strip ahead, if not even more.

Sure, a character can go from totally un-threatened to dead in a single strip, but that's not the norm.

Therefore, I'm betting on Belkar.

[The_Tentacle]

Just to be slightly different, I'm going for Malack. He's not keeping Belkar under wraps for long!

[Bulldog Psion]

Looking back, I think I already lost, because I believe I bet on Belkar before Yukyuk was killed by the acid spheres.

Well, I'm not going to bet again until after Belkar is dead. It wouldn't be sporting, IMO, since it's so obvious that he's going down at the moment.

[Procyonpi]

Put me down for KilKil

[sam79]

... although I could -totally- cheat and say Belkar (since he hasn't technically died yet) I am going to guess Malack since I think he will die shortly after Belkar and I kinda feel like putting down a bet for Belkar -now- would violate the spirit of the game.

Perhaps you will be rewarded for your honourable approach to this game! I'm feeling a little more comfortable with my punt on Malack since 871 went up.

And this is probably why we don't need to police any sort of rules regarding placing 'late' bets, or bets during combats etc; the Giant seems to have some sort of feat that allows him to Flat-foot all of us from time to time!

[Chessgeek]

So close!

Looking back, I think I already lost, because I believe I bet on Belkar before Yukyuk was killed by the acid spheres.

I'm pretty sure that a previous bet is kept until you change it. So if Belkar does croak next, everyone who has bet on him and has not changed their vote since will get the point, regardless of how recently or how long ago the bet was placed.

[Rakoa]

Damn it Durkon. I was quite excited for my imminent point.

[Sunken Valley]

Told you Belkar won't die.

Now if only I'd bet Malack except Z. I was thinking V would find Malack, who would escape because by dramatic law, Malack should die by Durkon's hand. But now that Durkon's here...

Go Malack! Dominate them!

[Rorrik]

I'm just glad we seem to have cornered someone into dying. My bet on Sabine before she was banished turned out to be extra rash. We won't be seeing her for a long time.

[Liliet]

My bet: Malack

(And yeah, I registered specifically to say this. It`s like magic: the more you bet on it, the more likely it will happen. Isn`t that right? )

[Bulldog Psion]

Looks like I was wrong twice in a row. Maybe three times or more. And I'm cool with that.

[Kish]

I hope FujinAkari, The_Tentacle, and Liliet win, I do.

[Flame of Anor]

I hope FujinAkari, The_Tentacle, and Liliet win, I do.

Same here.

[Rorrik]

Does being vampirified count as death? If so, without serious intervention, Durkon may be the next one to go.

[VanaGalen]

I just noticed the thread and I love the idea My bet is on Durkon

[Kish]

Does being vampirified count as death?

According to Rule 6A, yes.

[Dr. Gamera]

#877 is up. I again bet on Belkar.

Not sure when I'll post again.

[oppyu]

I just noticed the thread and I love the idea My bet is on Durkon

heh. Twenty minutes earlier and you'd have one shiny point.
EDIT: Now that we've had a death, I'd like to change my vote to Zz'dtri.