OOTS death pool (thread #4)

[Rakoa]

Well...its risky, because if I'm wrong I'll probably be out of the betting for quite some time...but put me down for Belkar

[sam79]

Hmm...this is getting tricky. We're near the end of the book, and I think we're probably done with major deaths: the summoned creatures will bite it, but I don't reckon that anyone in the Order, the LG or Team Evil will die until the next book. Belkar looks like the smart choice, as we know his number is up sooner rather than later. But "sooner" could still be (say) halfway through the next book, and we could have more characters introduced in that time, as well as (potentially) a showdown with Tarquin and the LG before then. Kilkil might be a good bet if that does happen. On the other hand, those calling Lien (or, less likely IMO), O-Chul are playing decent longshots; if Team Evil show up at Kragor's Gate, this could be bad news for our favourite paladins.

In short, I don't know, so I'll defer my choice until the next arc.

[Sniffnoy]

I'm not sure whether the Silicon Elemental died or not, but it's irrelevant; according to the rules it doesn't count as a death for our purposes (since it doesn't have 10 appearances and nobody bet on it).

Edit: The Giant clarifies here that it was in fact killed, but like I said it's irrelevant for our purposes. No changing bets yet.

[oppyu]

Ok, well the 'Haley is killed by the Elemental' train seems to have come to a screeching halt. Change my vote to Blackwing

[Mike Havran]

I'll try my luck with Nale now.

[Sniffnoy]

I'm thinking it's reasonable to allow bets on the barbed devil at this point, if people want. It's only 1 short of 10 appearances, it'll certainly show up again, and it's supposed to stick around until midnight, so it has a little bit of permanence and thus significance.

[Cuthalion]

I shall enter... with.... Belkar.

[David Argall]

I'll switch from Belkar to open if I can, and will switch next death if no. Belkar is now safe for a book.

[martianmister]

I guess Barbed Devil is no longer an option...

[Sniffnoy]

I'll switch from Belkar to open if I can, and will switch next death if no. Belkar is now safe for a book.

There isn't any need to switch to open (I'm just going to ignore this "switch"). You can just switch when you want, since your bet was made before Zz'dtri's death. You don't lose any points for betting on the wrong one.

I guess Barbed Devil is no longer an option...

No, we don't have any indication that the Barbed Devil is gone, and we've explicitly been told that (barring anything happening) he's sticking around till midnight, which seems to be a while away yet. Indeed I just posted above that I'm now going to allow bets on the Barbed Devil. (Probably should have done this after #909. Oops. Oh well.)

[PhantomDennis]

I remember not being able to able to find this thread right after Dukon bit it, er was bit. Oddly enough my earlier prediction about Nale proactively double-crossing Malack came true even though the circumstances were very different.

My guess is Tarquin does not have the juice to make it the next round. His death would provide some angst for Elan. Tarquin is used to having Malack to steady him. Kilkil may be a surprise survivor. So Tarquin is my next prediction. The trouble with Belkar dying now is that the Order actually has a Cleric and Durkon's allignment change means he's might be more pragmatic bringing Belkar back if he's useful.

[Warren Dew]

Not making - technically, changing - a prediction yet, but from a narrative standpoint there's little reason for either Nale or Tarquin to survive to the next arc. If they try to march into the rift, there's a good chance the first one will be destroyed by the snarl.

[Coopenhagen21]

I'd like to enter this, with a bet on Haley's father.

[rgrekejin]

I guess I'd like to change my bet to... Tarquin.

[hopeful1212]

I'll start with a bet on Tarquin.

He's been the main antagonist of this book and as of #910, he appears to have amassed a giant army for some sort of final showdown. He's evil and he basically looks unbeatable and we need some sort of closing for this book. IMO he's as good as dead.

Could very well be wrong, but I'll wait and see.

[WindStruck]

I think I'd like to enter with Nale. Just got a gut feeling. So many people have been dropping like flies, and it would be so fitting and satisfying if Nale bit it next, once and for all getting rid of him.

Tarquin will not be happy he dusted Malack. Maybe impressed, but not happy nonetheless. Nale just got lucky. He also won't be happy he completely blew the gate plan, plus didn't even get a hold of the "ritual" from Xykon. Nothing says it better than:

"You have failed me for the last time!!"

In fact I'd love it if a dinosaur ate Nale.

[Silver Swift]

Ok, dumb-nitpickey-rules-question-with-obvious-answer-time: Does a characters being unmade by the Snarl count as a death?

[onionbreath]

I'll switch my bet to Nale

[Sniffnoy]

Ok, dumb-nitpickey-rules-question-with-obvious-answer-time: Does a characters being unmade by the Snarl count as a death?

Yes. I've added it to the rulings section.

[mhsmith]

Well, Giant has stated that the point of this book is to deal with the conflict with the Linear Guild. It's unclear if Tarquin gets rolled into that or not, but it's certainly possible. Tarquin, Nale and Belkar seem like the most obvious possibilities, but with Malack already dead and Tarquin leading a massive army, it seems like it'd be cheap for Tarquin to bit the bullet anytime soon (I mean, he IS supposed to be a near-epic level adventurer and strong enough to best, or at least equal the OOTS in combat single-handedly).

So I'd say that other than "random character x" (like spiked devil) it's probably down to Nale or Belkar. Screw it, I'll stay with Belkar.

[Sunken Valley]

I put a theory in another thread which became wildly popular that Geoff is Miron in disguise. If Geoff is revealed as Miron, what happens to his bets?

[Alabenson]

I'm going to get in on this and put my bet on Nale as the next to bite the dust.

[Sniffnoy]

I put a theory in another thread which became wildly popular that Geoff is Miron in disguise. If Geoff is revealed as Miron, what happens to his bets?

I guess they'd get combined, then? I'll go add it to the rulings section...

Edit: Oh wait. You mean not "What if Haley's uncle Geoff and Miron are actually the same person"; you mean "What if the character we know as Geoff is Miron in disguise, and Haley's real uncle Geoff is elsewhere". That's trickier. I think I would still count bets as Geoff as bets on Miron in that case; it seems reasonable to interpret bets on "Geoff" as bets on "the character we know as Geoff" rather than "whichever character happens to be named Geoff". I mean, unless the bet had been placed before we ever met Geoff on-panel, but the thread has not been running that long...

[Rakoa]

A scenario: Belkar goes missing. Nale dies. Several people change votes after Nale dies from Belkar to Haley. Belkar is revealed to have died after he went missing, before Nale died. What happens?

[Sniffnoy]

A scenario: Belkar goes missing. Nale dies. Several people change votes after Nale dies from Belkar to Haley. Belkar is revealed to have died after he went missing, before Nale died. What happens?

Fortunately, RSLee already thought of that; see rule 7. Belkar's death will be counted when his death is revealed, after Nale's.

[Rakoa]

Fortunately, RSLee already thought of that; see rule 7. Belkar's death will be counted when his death is revealed, after Nale's.

Do you mean rule 8.a? Because I did read it, but assuming that a death occured before we knew about the initial death, who is it who gets points? I ask because many of the rules place importance on the in-comic chronology of the deaths.

So using my example again, when Belkar is found to have died before Nale, do the points go to the voters who were betting on him chronologically when he died, or to those who were betting on him when his corpse was revealed and he was confirmed dead?

[Sniffnoy]

Do you mean rule 8.a? Because I did read it, but assuming that a death occured before we knew about the initial death, who is it who gets points? I ask because many of the rules place importance on the in-comic chronology of the deaths.

So using my example again, when Belkar is found to have died before Nale, do the points go to the voters who were betting on him chronologically when he died, or to those who were betting on him when his corpse was revealed and he was confirmed dead?

Sorry, yes, I meant rule 8, in particular part a.

...reading it again, I suppose it actually is ambiguous on the issue. Still I'm pretty sure the intended meaning is that points would go to those who were beting on him when the corpse was revealed; and that's what I'm going to go with for logistical reasons if nothing else. I'll go clarify that. Thanks for pointing that out.

[Rakoa]

Hey, not a problem. I doubt it would ever come up, but just in case I figured I would bring it up. I also thought that the time of the corpse reveal made sense as well, but I didn't want to sway your opinion, just bring up the possible issue.

[Oko and Qailee]

Kilki is next I think

[Dungeon_Crawler]

Put me on Tarquin