Humanity in 50 years

[Bulhakov]

I'm working on a realistic hard sci-fi future setting for years 2050-2100. Any suggestions on ready made scientifically accurate world descriptions or ideas to pitch in?

What are your visions of the world in 50 years? Are we all plugged into matrix-like MMOs? Are we colonizing Mars? Are humans genetically perfect and forever young (or at least the elite few who can afford the miracle cures)? Does the singularity happen? Are AI's making even smarter AI's or enhancing our own brains? Are the AI's benevolent? Or maybe everything is pretty much the same, maybe we're dumber, but have even smarter phones?

What about computer progress? 50 years ago we invented the first semiconductor chips. With the exponential growth of processing power, we should be able to fully emulate a human brain on a supercomputer in 10-20 years, and on a home PC in 30-40. It's highly likely that in 50 years a mobile phone will literally be smarter that its user (or even sooner with cloud computing).

The question is - what will be done with that level of augmented intelligence - just entertainment? or something more?

One interesting proposal - an AI/brain augmentation "app store":
"iPolyGraph - get instant alerts when someone is lying* to you!"
"iBrain - download knowledge and skills** direct to your hippocampus"
*99% effective against iLie
**additional fees for Professor and Master level packages

What about biological improvements, longevity, designer babies, etc.? Is GATTACA a likely scenario? We're already hearing of gene doping in professional sports, so how many years till it's available at the local gym or the NBA is filled with genetically optimized Michael Jordan clones?

Energy? Ecology? Fossil fuels will have largely run out (at least from the easy to rich places) and will need to mined from greater depths or arctic platforms.

[Totally Guy]

Downloading and 3D printing will be our standard way of buying physical things and certain recyclables would be able to be converted back into 3D printer matter. Items made by hand or in an old fashioned way will be considered art in addition to whatever else they are. People that can make things will be respected for their artistic abilities.

[Killer Angel]

It depends. You could pick many elements of Gibson's cyberpunk...

keep also in mind the possible scenarios due to earth's overpopulation.

[Yora]

I say read Ghost in the Shell, or watch any of the anime. The manga was written in the late 80s, but it still looks a lot like what the world could very likely look like in one or two generations.

The primary use of technology to augment bodies will probably overcomming disabilities. Artificial limbs and artificial eyes would be the most prominent, and the technology for has already been around for a couple of years. It's just super-expensive, often not very reliable, and not very accurate. But as with any technology, that is merely a matter of time until they will be cheaper and have better performance.
Less visible would be brain implants, that compensate for brain damage and nerve defects, but those "only" allow people to act "normal", which they otherwise could not.

The giant walking robot concept is nonsense for a number of reasons which I won't repeat here. But the human-sized military or industrial robot for high danger tasks is a completely different thing. The main reason you would want a human shaped robot is to have him work in an environment that has been designed for use by humans. Stairs, doors, drawers, handguns, keys, and so on have all been designed for people. If you design your robot like a human, there won't be anything that a human can do, but the robot can not. Even if you never thought in advance, that a robot might have to use a certain device.

For combat, a human sized robot could work well next to human soldiers, since he would fit through the doorways they fit through, can climb the stairs they climb, and so on. What good would be a 4 meter tall spider robot, if he can't follow you inside buildings where you are searching for enemies? Same thing with civilian disaster relief robots.
Instead of making full robots, you can also make super-heavy suits of armor. Might be a better solution in situations where remote control would be impractical.

I've had some classes on population numbers, growth rates, and so on, and I think there is a very strong pattern that every society experiences a huge population boom as they enter an industrialized state, but once the country is completely industrialized and transforms in a service economy where the industry is automated, there will be a steep decline after just 50 years or so. All countries that are now post-industrial have very strong downward developments in population, all the fast growing nations are still in the stage of argrarian societies becoming industrial. Only the starting points are different, the speed of the process is always about the same.
So China, India, Nigeria, and Brazil will most likely reach the maximum in a few decades and then also see a slow decline in population starting. 50 years from now seems like a good estimate for when the global population reaches is peak. Unless something completely changes in post-industrial societies, I think world population won't continue to grow after that, but actually go down. And another 50 years later, that might actually cause a significant shrinking of the world poulation. Japan has just reached its peak and it's estimated that by 2100, Japan will have about as many people as it did in 1900. At only one third of the current number.
And as I see it, Japan simply is the country that goes through this whole process first. Most countries will experience the same eventually, and I wouldn't be suprised if it happens to the world as a whole as well. But I won't, because that would probably be still some 200 years from now. For 2060, I think some 10 to 14 billion people might be plausible, but by that point, most countries will have to seriously start to worry what to do once all their current 25 year old become 75 year olds.

[Bulhakov]

Settings I'm already familiar with and considered taking a bit from each:
- books by Neil Stephenson and William Gibson
- cyberpunk and shadowrun rpgs
- a few manga/anime settings (GitS, Akira)
- Deus Ex
- Transmetropolitan

[Rhynn]

Read Neal Stephenson, especially Diamond Age and Snow Crash. Wild yet plausible (and very meticulously thought-out) visions of the future. Diamond Age deals with nanotechnology (including nanotech 3D printing; every home has a printer unit fed by matter blocks) and Snow Crash deals with virtual reality (and basically exactly predicted Second Life).

Edit: Damn you!

[Yora]

Another thing:

By 2060, the US will probably be one of the big countries, but no longer a leader. Just a big country like many others, like Japan or France are now.

Europe will either consist of a tightly unified European Confederacy, or just a bunch of tiny countries with few, if any, global significance. If they don't work together, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, will be as significant as Finland or Ireland are today.
It's something that is easy to miss for Europeans, but European global dominance is a freak event in world history, that really lasted only for two centuries at the most. In the 16th and 17th centuries, Europeans were very strong in the Americas, but that was only because over 90% of the population had died from disease. The Americas were basically a post-aopcalyptic wasteland where invaders would not encounter any organized resistance. Colonization of Africa and Asia only started in the late 19th century, because Europeans simply did not have the power or resources to invade the african and asian kingdoms before that. That was only possible with industrialization, which again, happened quite recently.
Compared to other parts of the world, Europe is small, has a small population, and mostly lacks resources. The only advantage we have is technological knowledge, and that advantage will disappear in the next 10 to 30 years. A single central european economy might be able to compete, but the tiny national european economies won't be relevant when being compared to China, India, Brazil, or the US.

If there is an interest in space exploration, I predict that by 2060, people will at least be experimenting with building space ships in space. The most difficult part of space travel is to get the spacecraft off the Earths surface and into orbit. The rest is almost a cakewalk compared to that. So everything that could be manufactured in space, should be made in space. Human crews, food, and complex electronics would still come from Earth, but the big hulks of the spacecraft and the fuel should be made entirely in space. The moon has huge amounts of what is basically fuel for fusion reactors. I think having a fuel producing plant on the moon by 2060 could be quite plausible. If people on Earth think it's worthwhile to do a lot of space travel.
Getting metal from asteroids and making spaceship hulls might probably not be common by 2060 yet, but having some experimental prototype projects going on might not bee too far off.

[Rhynn]

If they don't work together, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, will be as significant as Finland or Ireland are today.

Hey! I, uh, we... we used to make good cell-phones? Until that got gutted by corporate raiders...

[Bulhakov]

Thanks for the great posts so far, there are just so many factors and world "flavors" to consider...

cultural aspects - will the islamization of Europe continue? will religion generally turn more into tradion/culture as the belief in the supernatural diminishes in each generation?

space - will corporations be the main space entrepreneurs? Is a Google camp/base on the moon feasible?

transhumanism - implants augmenting our memories, senses or thought processes seem much more world-changing than robotic limbs

virtual reality indistinguishable from reality - how much time will people spend having sex and slaying monsters in their personal xbox/ps holodec/matrix?

[Kitten Champion]

It depends on your level of cynicism.

There are two reasonable routes - Looper and Minority Report - removing the more magical aspects of precognition or telekinesis.

Looper, while there's technical advancements here or there, the overwhelming narrative is social breakdown and the decline of Western civilization, and the majority of people are not privy to the major benefits of contemporary technology. You'll see growing economic powers in South America and South East Asia who will be amid redefining their whole infrastructure to new efficient heights, and lots of toys for the new 1%. Expect a lot of emphasis on defence/security/surveillance technology, particularly for urban settings. Probably robotics and telepresence technology will become mundane.

In Minority Report styled-future, you've got generally a positive outcome. Infrastructure is renewed with green technology into a very efficient urban-intense civilization. You'll get things like vertical farming, genetic modification on humans for medical purposes and beyond as well as further perfection of bio-engineering for agricultural development, solar/wind/geothermal/tidal/nuclear energy has overtaken the majority of the energy market, and civilizations would be already adapting to intermittent natural devastation like drought and super-storms. Factories will be heavily automated, and on a micro-level the aforementioned 3D printer will make retail more of a matter of buying the proper pattern. Space tourism will be an attainable thing, and there might be private/public space stations or orbital arcologies which take the nanotech hyper-efficient model to make actual living spaces - or at least the start of those projects for the long term.

In both cases I'd expect computer trends would carry on, and there would be at least very convincing psuedo-AI and incredible processing power in reasonably small packages - or perhaps there will be exorbitantly powerful centralized super-computer complex which you can buy access and storage on and access via a modestly powerful terminal.

[Grinner]

cultural aspects - will the islamization of Europe continue? will religion generally turn more into tradion/culture as the belief in the supernatural diminishes in each generation?

Islamization is another word for cultural diaspora. This sort of thing always happens when two cultures and their religions interact tightly.

The second part is trickier to answer. In a word, yes. The question is really: What will be its function? The human brain is built for religion, and human neurology isn't going to change anytime soon. Moreover, churches haven't been governing bodies for centuries now, and this trend may certainly carry over into other religions as well. I think that they will continue to be a source of cultural and moral values, however, and there's little reason that people will cease to follow them completely.

If you're concerned about a "Science vs Religion" deathmatch, no, that's not going to happen, because the two are not incompatible. What some people don't realize is that they ask two fundamentally different questions.

space - will corporations be the main space entrepreneurs? Is a Google camp/base on the moon feasible?

I find the phrase "follow the money" very convenient, for if the payout is sufficient enough to justify the expense, people will do the impossible. In this case, you need to ask yourself how would it be profitable for a technology company to maintain a complex on the moon?

If they got into the energy industry, they might be interested. I could also see some oil tycoon establishing a moon base after petroleum resources are depleted. Depends on how popular profitable nuclear energy becomes.

Edit: Also, we will probably have physically gone to Mars by then, just to say we did it, if nothing else.

transhumanism - implants augmenting our memories, senses or thought processes seem much more world-changing than robotic limbs

Cultural expectations aside, people don't tend to mutilate themselves for the sake of a few kicks and giggles. Cheaper options certainly encourage that, and the idea has some merit. I don't think that it will be exactly widespread by 2060, though.

virtual reality indistinguishable from reality - how much time will people spend having sex and slaying monsters in their personal xbox/ps holodec/matrix?

Again, follow the money. Traditionally, VR setups are very expensive and very unsatisfying. In-brain implants would require a very dangerous and very expensive surgery, limiting the market for those sort of things.

[OverdrivePrime]

Watch about 2 hours of Michio Kaku talking about the near future. You'll be set.

Start with "The World in 2030." It's about an hour long.

[viking vince]

I read an article yesterday, report that some hi muckey-muck at Google expects that human brains will be able to be stored electronically in the next 35 years.

[Rhynn]

I read an article yesterday, report that some hi muckey-muck at Google expects that human brains will be able to be stored electronically in the next 35 years.

Called brain-taping in GURPS Cyberpunk. Combine this with artificial electronic brains, machine-body interfaces, and efficient, cloning, and you have immortality.

Edit: That reminds me, Bulhakov, I really recommend Transhuman Space, the GURPS setting. It is awesome. It's all about well-thought-out near-future hard science fiction. It's sort of post-cyberpunk, inside the solar system, etc. Very interesting vision, one of the best SF settings I've read.

[Bulhakov]

Thanks Rhynn !!!

The gurps setting seems like just what I was looking for! I'm going to torr... I mean look for them in a store right away.

As for brain implants - I agree those might be further in the future and unlikely. The closest tech I foresee is brain simulation and weak AI.

However, even if no breakthrough technologies are coming in the field of implants/brain interfaces, just with the trends in electronics and software we can foresee that in 50 years we'll have a nearly human equivalent (or in some fields superior) weak-AIs running on machines smaller than a smartphone.

What will debates look like then if our phones will not only be able to search for information, but be able to make better arguments than ourselves?

[Madfellow]

I've been reading this fascinating book, The World In 2050, that's dedicated entirely to this subject. It examines four "global forces": population, climate, resources, and globalization. I wish I had a link of some kind to share, but I guess you'll just have to look it up at your local library. Basically, the gist of it is this:

Population: It will continue to rise rapidly for the next 40 years, but will start to slow down and level off close to mid-century. At that point the global population will be around 9 billion and still growing, but not as rapidly as it is now. Most of that growth will be in the eastern hemisphere. Most western nations actually have declining growth rates, but are still growing due to immigration and the natural inertia of population sizes.

The eastern hemisphere will see a gigantic boost in economic output, spawning numerous global superpowers in Asia, but per capita the West will still have the wealthiest citizens.

Resources: We're running out of them. All of them. Fossil fuels, metals, fresh water, you name it. Everything will start getting rarer and more expensive. Oil fields and mines will empty, rivers will be dammed, and all of Earth's natural resources will essentially all be claimed. Water is perhaps the biggest problem, with numerous nations in the eastern and southern hemispheres becoming stressed for fresh water due to their rising populations and urbanization. Their survival will depend on trade for food and water with the West and the North.

Climate: Global warming will continue. That's inevitable, but the degree to which it will continue is entirely dependent on human actions in the coming decades. There are many climate models that predict varying degrees of change, but they all agree that temperatures will rise, icebergs will melt, and that the northern hemisphere will be hit harder than the South.

In the northern hemisphere, polar biomes will shrink and more temperate biomes will slowly advance northward. Farmland and agricultural productivity will follow them. As the glaciers melt, northern countries will gain new access to underwater resources including fossil fuels and metals. Missing glaciers will also mean that naval transportation will become viable in the Arctic Ocean, if not in the winter then at least in the summer.

What this all boils down to is that the world will be divided into two major power centers: East Asia and the Arctic Ocean. EA will be crowded, starved, and dry, but economically powerful. Classic Cyberpunk setting right there. AO will be a growing economic power with a smaller population, milder climate, and wealthier citizens. More like post-Cyberpunk.

[Grinner]

Resources: We're running out of them. All of them. Fossil fuels, metals, fresh water, you name it. Everything will start getting rarer and more expensive. Oil fields and mines will empty, rivers will be dammed, and all of Earth's natural resources will essentially all be claimed. Water is perhaps the biggest problem, with numerous nations in the eastern and southern hemispheres becoming stressed for fresh water due to their rising populations and urbanization. Their survival will depend on trade for food and water with the West and the North.

I've had an idea about this for a while now. Despite the best efforts of activists, we still throw away a lot of recyclable materials.

Perhaps, in the future, some wealthy entrepreneurs will buy up landfills and begin mining scrap plastics and metals from them. The rest of the garbage could be burnt in incinerators as fuel.

[Madfellow]

I've had an idea about this for a while now. Despite the best efforts of activists, we still throw away a lot of recyclable materials.

Perhaps, in the future, some wealthy entrepreneurs will buy up landfills and begin mining scrap plastics and metals from them. The rest of the garbage could be burnt in incinerators as fuel.

I think that's already starting to happen. I've read a few articles about oil and mining companies that have drawn up plans to start extracting stuff from old landfills.

Edit: Oh, and something I forgot to mention. A majority of personal vehicles are expected to be electric by mid-century, with larger vehicles running on natural gas. Electricity and natural gas will be like stepping stones between fossil fuels and hydrogen power. Alternative energy sources will see expanded use, and our reliance on oil will lower, but unfortunately our high energy demand will require an expansion in coal use.

[Kitten Champion]

I don't think people want brain implants.

Not because of squeamishness with the concept - I strongly doubt it would look anything like the cyberpunk aesthetic suggests - but because further technological development is simply a given in our collective mindset. Who would want to have a machine which will soon be obsolete inserted fairly deeply into their very physiology? I love my computer, but it's already straining to run current software, I'll have to replace it in 2-3 years if not sooner.

Besides, given what a pain DRM is now, imagine it on this level.

Something like nanoscopic devices you can program, use, and flush out of your body with your natural processes seems plausible. Consider it from the perspective of a corporation making them - designed obsolescence would make them highly marketable - as you'll keep getting a return on them and can sell them at a moderately reasonable price.

I can't see any major change in our economic and politic systems coming in such a short time-scale. While I don't think Shadowrun-esque oligarchies of corporations is what we'll be facing, but I don't think our political leaders and institutions will be nearly as powerful as they are today. The private/public line is pretty blurred already, and we're setting the framework for an increasingly more liberal attitude on corporate freedom.

I would say, on the issue of religion. It's going to decline. Not the faiths and essential beliefs, but the institutions. It already is in many places. This may be anecdotal, but I know plenty of new-aged converts and squishy monotheists my own age or younger who want that meaning but feel the fallibility or limitations of theological organizations weighs those options down. With humanity in general growing more and more aware of one another, the more mechanical faith which has cemented previous generations into their parent's religion due to that being everything they know isn't going to be the default state. We're going to see more faiths and philosophies, but less religion.

[Grinner]

We're going to see more faiths and philosophies, but less religion.

Very well put. Kudos.

[warty goblin]

I don't think people want brain implants.

Not because of squeamishness with the concept - I strongly doubt it would look anything like the cyberpunk aesthetic suggests - but because further technological development is simply a given in our collective mindset. Who would want to have a machine which will soon be obsolete inserted fairly deeply into their very physiology? I love my computer, but it's already straining to run current software, I'll have to replace it in 2-3 years if not sooner.

Besides, given what a pain DRM is now, imagine it on this level.

There's also the issue that I am entirely a product of the squishy bits in my head. I don't want people messing about in there, because then I'm not really me anymore.

[Rhynn]

There's also the issue that I am entirely a product of the squishy bits in my head. I don't want people messing about in there, because then I'm not really me anymore.

Ah, the Electronic Brain of Theseus.

If your brain can be replaced, one neuron at a time, by artificial neurons which provide identical function and change nothing, then once all neurons have been replaced, are you still the same person?

Also, people already get brain/neural implants. Brain implants and neural interfaces are already here, and are freaking exciting technology. Granted, so far it's mostly to treat diseases, conditions, and injuries, and not really in the cyberpunk idiom, but I personally would freaking love a retinal display and a computer operated by neural interface.

So careful who you tell that brain implants make you stop being you, even if you only mean something other than actual brain implants...

I find it odd to say no breakthroughs are coming since we've already had some. Breakthroughs just aren't sudden, dramatic, or sexy; but if you compare to 20 years go, there have been huge breakthroughs and advances.

[Fouredged Sword]

Organ replacement is seriously a thing. It's expensive, but if an organ is failing, they can clone you a new one in 2-3 months. Almost any injury is able to be recovered from if you can survive those 2-3 months, in intensive care if need be.

Data is bought right out for all communication, and there isn't anywhere not connected to the grid unless it is deliberately shielded.

You need to charge your cellphone maybe once a month or so, unless it is so tiny you can't hold it. The same goes for any electronic device. If you interface it with your hands, the batteries are big enough to last weeks.

Individuals can process tons of data through automatic systems. Mass data mining comes to the masses, you just buy access to the private companies who horde information.

A computer is just now build that has as many internal connections as a human brain.

[warty goblin]

Ah, the Electronic Brain of Theseus.

If your brain can be replaced, one neuron at a time, by artificial neurons which provide identical function and change nothing, then once all neurons have been replaced, are you still the same person?

Obviously yes, but this hypothetical is about as meaningful as asking if there's a disease with no symptoms that cannot be detected, are you sick?

Also, people already get brain/neural implants. Brain implants and neural interfaces are already here, and are freaking exciting technology. Granted, so far it's mostly to treat diseases, conditions, and injuries, and not really in the cyberpunk idiom, but I personally would freaking love a retinal display and a computer operated by neural interface.

I can think of literally no reason I would want a neurally operated computer or a display inside my eyeball. It solves no problems that I have, and would at best make a few tasks marginally easier.

[Rhynn]

Obviously yes, but this hypothetical is about as meaningful as asking if there's a disease with no symptoms that cannot be detected, are you sick?

I think you may have missed the point of the paradox... basically, at what point does a change make a thing cease to be a thing, especially if it still functions as the thing?

The point is that it's not a question with a real concrete answer.

I can think of literally no reason I would want a neurally operated computer or a display inside my eyeball. It solves no problems that I have, and would at best make a few tasks marginally easier.

My laptop solves no problems I have, either, and it's still awesome. Besides, it doesn't have to solve problems you have; it can solve problems that, say, people who work underwater have. For everyone else, it's just a convenience. Computers didn't originally solve problems that most people had, either, they solves very specific and fairly rare problems, and now look at them...

Seriously, computer & Internet with no external devices. I can't wait. And nobody can even tell I'm surfing po--oooolice blotters rather than paying attention to them.

[Grinner]

Organ replacement is seriously a thing. It's expensive, but if an organ is failing, they can clone you a new one in 2-3 months. Almost any injury is able to be recovered from if you can survive those 2-3 months, in intensive care if need be.

It's a shame that there's a risk of cancer attached to the price tag.

[Fouredged Sword]

I think cancer will be much less of a problem in 50 years than it is today. It will likely still be a serious killer in 50 years and may even kill a greater percentage of our population, but only because injury, sickness, and organ failure will be significantly less dangerous.

Also, if an organ becomes cancerous, the treatment can be full removal of the organ. Also, with retroviruses and genetic manipulation of the seeding stem cells, one could ensure that the cells have all the native cancer safeguards in place and screen for genetic degradation as well as implement new safeguards as science moves forward. A replaced organ could have a significantly lower cancer risk than the rest of you, depending on how science progresses.

Maintaining the brain and prevention of metal degradation will be much more serious of a problem.

I would not be surprised if we saw lifespans reaching into the 200's.

Of course we could have a pandemic, but that is also less of an issue than one would think. Seriously, we freak out over a sickness that kills 10,000 people now. The last flu epidemic killed a hundred million people in a world with far fewer people. That would be highly improbable with modern medicine. Death from sickness has move from a common day occurrence that kills daily to a boogieman that we fear, but rarely see.

[Kitten Champion]

I can think of literally no reason I would want a neurally operated computer or a display inside my eyeball. It solves no problems that I have, and would at best make a few tasks marginally easier.

When I was watching Microsoft's big reveal for their X-Box One, and they proudly showcased this voice-activated control scheme, I couldn't help but look down at my remote and ponder the depths of human laziness.

I don't want to turn my head into a glorified smartphone.

For such a device, it would need to be consciousness-raising. An artificial eidetic memory, heightened sensory acuity, increased mental processing, possibly a more vivid imagination - something that can change the basic human experience.

[warty goblin]

When I was watching Microsoft's big reveal for their X-Box One, and they proudly showcased this voice-activated control scheme, I couldn't help but look down at my remote and ponder the depths of human laziness.

I don't want to turn my head into a glorified smartphone.

I don't even want to turn my phone into a glorified smartphone.

For such a device, it would need to be consciousness-raising. An artificial eidetic memory, heightened sensory acuity, increased mental processing, possibly a more vivid imagination - something that can change the basic human experience.

Perhaps it's just me, but I'm really very happy with my brain as it currently works. So long as it's fed well and exercised regularly, it provides excellent service. An upgrade in speed wouldn't be worth the ads.

And let's face it, non-medical brain implants are gonna come with ads and ICP (in consciousness purchasing) options. "The answer to 'where did I leave my keys' is you by Pepsi. For just $.99, enjoy the sensation of drinking a Pepsi now. Think 'yes Pepsi' to accept. Thank you for your patience. The solution to 'where did I leave my keys' is 'at home on top of the toilet' Thank your for using ThinkSmart: brought to you by Pepsi."


The good news is I'll probably be too dead or old for it by the time that sort of thing appears.

[Grinner]

And let's face it, non-medical brain implants are gonna come with ads and ICP (in consciousness purchasing) options. "The solution to this problem has been brought to you by Pepsi, and will appear after this brief message. For just $.99, enjoy the sensation of drinking a Pepsi now. Think 'yes Pepsi' to accept. Thank you for your patience. The solution to your problem is..."

That's like asking someone to not think about pink elephants.