Werewolf Classic XVII - game starts on page 2

[Lord Fullbladder, Master of Goblins]

Frankly, I don't trust anyone on there, at all. Even fullbladder looks bad in this universe, and I have him looking strong in the teal color.

Man, teal is such a terrible colour. Can't I be a nice Royal Blue, instead? Or green, man. Green is good, too.

The answer to you're whole 'Why Would People Who Voted for Fullbladder Be On the Same Bandwagon as Fullbladder" thing has two possibilities.

A) People have decided I'm not worth the time (at least yet) or forgiven my suspicions as general wackiness. Additionally, one or more of us might be notorious bandwagoneers, following the wagons more than the politics.

B) The truth is that I received the super-secret extra role in the game--the Alien Mind Fungus, a neutral role that allows me to control the votes of people who voted for me the previous day. My win conditions are to gain control of certain people and kill certain roles, so I've been acting suspiciously to draw in as many minions as possible.

I like this game. I feel all fuzzy like a llama, or a fungus.

[BasketOfPuppies]

Seems legit.

[Alarra]

If he's a wolf, who looks bad today?

Me. Because our being on the same team is apparently a good excuse for us to not point at each other. Though I must say that if we were both wolves, I would definitely have pointed at EK day 1, especially if he wasn't in danger of being lynched. I'm going to hope that he's not a wolf, cause I'd rather not die tomorrow.

@^ ... Love the robot puppies. So cute!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Me. Because our being on the same team is apparently a good excuse for us to not point at each other.

Well, that's certainly the level 1 way of looking at it. I know sometimes people look for the easiest answers to things. Like today, pizza is a wolf because lies.

Though I must say that if we were both wolves, I would definitely have pointed at EK day 1, especially if he wasn't in danger of being lynched. I'm going to hope that he's not a wolf, cause I'd rather not die tomorrow.

It's not always so simple and I trust that you've played the game enough that you wouldn't be so obvious. The point at EK day one, especially late in the round, would absolutely be baseline for you and not dangerous.

But it was still worth hearing what people thought about that simplistic idea.

Listen, if EK dies and flips werewolf, I want you to know that you'll get a fair hearing from me and that you're not even my highest suspect.

I'd go so far as to say, I'd love to give you a chance to establish your villagery-ness by having you point fingers at folks after the EK wolf flip, and see if you can't find some wolves too.

That would be very convincing to me.

[Mordokai]

Ok, day finally ends, narration to come soon.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Okay this is not accurate at all. I think that EK is a fine lynch, and because all the people that I think are most likely villagers are voting for him I would switch to him if I thought it was necessary for his lynch. It isn't, therefore, I'm staying on Abhorsen because I personally find him marginally more suspicious based on the merit of his post. I read both players as "only somewhat wolfish but either way unlikely to be helpful to town."

Okay.

Spoiler: Too Long Didn't Read Argument

Show

I try to take what people say at face value, and your initial analysis and vote of Abhorsen looked to match what you're saying.

Then I see Tanar followed your vote, Tasroth aimed at EK, Basket aimed at EK, Fullbladder aimed at Abhorsen, Alarra aimed at Abhorsen, Chessgeek attempted to vote EK, and everyone is happily wagoning, no big dealio.

Then I posted my "the difference between Abhorsen and EK, IMO" post here.

This prompts a fairly cool, no stress, neutral and even sounding response from you here.

I ask the question, are these two candidates basically equally guilty looking.

Here, still no explicit defense of EK, but your response:

Hmm. I'm not sure how to measure that. I want both of them to respond to suspicions, which is why I've chosen to leave their wagons relatively close together, keep Abhorsen on the hook.
I'd say that the difference between their probabilities of being a wolf is within the margin of error-- or, in layman's terms, that I don't know enough about these players to definitively call either of them more suspicious. (Abhorsen is relatively new, and EK is older than me, haven't seen his games.) The one significant difference I see is that because Tasroth is pointing at EK, that indicates that EK does not have a powerrole of some sort, while that is still possible for Abhorsen, which is why EK is a safer lynch.

You've mentioned you want to keep the wagons close together. Still not a big deal. I don't think anything is odd about any of it.

That's when I posted this argument, which I'm going to go ahead and admit, is not particularly decisive since EK does what EK does.

But, here's the danger, stranger: It *sounds* reasonable and may be liable to persuade folks who are undecided to vote for EK.

It could in fact have made all the difference of the two wagons, which one dies.

This prompts your response here.

And here:

Eldritch Knight games, in the order that I looked at the games:
Classic XI (No PMs): Seer/Fool. Randapointed Shadow D1. Claimed at start of D2 reporting guilty scry on Shadow. (Context: Shadow is an experienced player with an extreme reputation for craftiness)
Classic IX (No PMs): Devil. Gave two sentences of mechanical discussion but otherwise nothing but points until Day 6 claiming Devil under pressure to provide results to wolf team.
Classic WW: Village of Vilcas: Baner. Randapointed D1, claimed Seer/Fool D2 under pressure.
Okay Google is obviously selecting games where EK is a powerrole, probably because that causes him to get more discussion.
Classic VI: Vanillager. Randapointed D1, wagoned D2, gave a little logic D3, "I don't trust you" D4, NK'd N4.
Werewolf X: Wolf. All randapoints and wagons until lynched D10.
Werewolf VIII: Vanillager. Missed D1, then followed every large wagon with no logic given. Endgame'd.
EK seems to never provide logic regardless of alignment. Anti-town, but my point stands for now.

A lot of research which does establish EK's baseline behavior. A certainly well-argued and cited case that EK is doing nothing unusual.

Commendable, even.

Interesting. The EK wagon is filled with my most likely villager candidates and some people I have a villager lean on, the Pizzaguy wagon is filled with my most likely wolf candidates, and the Abhorsen wagon is filled with people I'm really unsure about. This alone makes me believe EK is more likely to be a wolf than Abhorsen, but in my mind, "these people I think are villagers are voting for him" is not a good reason to change vote to a wagon that's already in the lead. That attitude leads to single-bandwagon days which are bad for analysis. Either wagon still could be a villager, so in either case if it flips Villager we don't learn much. If EK flips Wolf, we get a core group of very trustable people. If Abhorsen flips Wolf, we can focus our wolfhunting efforts on a smaller pool of suspicious people.

Here, you point out it sure looks like the core of the village wants EK dead. And even that he is likely to be a wolf. And that if EK dies and flips wolf, basically that whole smattering of people on EK is even more trustworthy.

You argue that more information may come from votes on Abhorsen.

Indeed it may.

But more dead wolves may come from votes on Eldritch Knight.

At this point, the argument gets a bit shaky in my view. So far it seems reasonable, now it seems slightly desperate? Maybe?

No offense. These are minor suspicions and may be completely off-base.

However... here's where things get interesting.

Eldritch Knight's attention has certainly been gotten.

You've completely overlooked the most significant games in my track record. I'd encourage you to include the Mafia games in your evaluation, otherwise you've only examined cherry-picked data.

So he's here, and besides his vote for me, he's stopped looking for scums entirely, or really, talking about this game.

Perhaps he knows he's caught and doesn't want to give off any additional data.

Certainly something you could do especially if you believed there was a decent chance of a N1 scry result of guilty on yourself. That's the safest route.

The choice not to pile on to Abhorsen is of course a deliberate one. We do look our most reasonable when we don't look desperate to kill anyone but us. It would make Abhorsen look pretty obviously villagery if there was such a scry.

Again, I make no claims that such a scry result exists. But it's something the wolves have to think about as a possibility, and therefore, play as best you can against it.

Eldritch Knight certainly no slouch at this game, particularly if he's wolfing here.

Problem: If you're established as a low-volume, low-talk poster with no strong desire to fight a lynch, how do you fight your way out of a lynch without breaking character?

Answer: Have others argue your defense for you or present a way for you to do so. That way you stay in character.

Oh! It wasn't intentionally cherry-picked; I just didn't think to replace werewolf with mafia in my search terms. But, since you're here, how DO you assess yourself?

Obfuscating Stupidity.

I tend to change my strategies every game depending on what role I have. Mafia II is a personal favorite, because as memory serves, I pulled enough strings throughout the entire game to be the last made-man standing. That's basically the good old days for me, though, because I've not had the time to devote to these games. I believe there's the better part of 2 years where I didn't play in any.

Edit: Man, rereading Mafia II is quite amusing, now that I remember that I gave suggestions for the death scenes towards the end.... I hope Helgraf doesn't hold much of a grudge over what I did to him then.....

Now we're discussing past games, and again, deliberately not talking about this one.

Anyway. EK and Lex-Kat, you've both posted, not changed your vote, and not provided further reasoning for your vote. Please explain.

This provides EK another way to argue his defense by not arguing for his own defense.

Basically irrelevent - enough votes against me that changing my vote won't make a difference.

Which is, of course, not the case.

This statement would be accurate if it was like 7 votes to 2.

The two wagons are nearly equal in strength.

So if it's not quite accurate, what is the purpose behind it?

It is a way of saying sure, I'll vote to defend myself, but I want more votes on Abhorsen first.

Subtle, but can certainly be effective. How to generate more votes out of thin air, chapter one.

Get it? Let's put more votes on Abhorsen, that way, we can meet EK's condition of self-preservation, which is if his vote would make a difference to the outcome.

I'm not feeling any of them.

Pizzaguy, from seeing him at work in Minecraft, would not fake mason claim as a wolf after a wolf death Day 1, he's too good to take that risk after how Day 1 played out. He also claims every role under the sun at one point or another, to try and confuse the wolves. So yeah, not voting for him.

EK - For not pointing at Alarra. seriously? May as well lynch me for not voting Lex-kat if that's the only logic we have. EK plays few enough of these games without being lynched over trivial rubbish like that.

Abhorsen - Best of a bad bunch due to not being Pizzaguy, and not being someone who doesn't play WW very often.

This post is an explicit defense of me, which... okay. That's fine, since there's a strong argument to be made that what I did likely has very negative consequences for the wolf team.

There's an explicit defense of Eldritch Knight as well.

The defense is as follows: EK always does blank, doing something different is not suspicious.

Okay, but earlier, someone else made the point that EK always does blank, and therefore always doing blank is not suspicious.

How convenient that Eldritch Knight can do the same thing all the time and not look suspicious, and Eldritch Knight can do something completely different from what he does all the time and not look suspicious.

The two points were made by two different people, but let's pretend there might be wolves behind this argument and I could take both points at once.

When taken together, these two points mean that Eldritch Knight is incapable of being suspicious.

That's rather nifty.

It sure looks like a suspicious and forced-logic defense of Eldritch Knight is happening in the thread.

Why would such a thing even happen?

Isn't that really risky for the wolf team, to throw more bodies in Eldritch Knight's wake, especially if he's guilty and likely to die today?

Well, the wolf team may be forced to make a Sophie's Choice today.

A Sophie's Choice is not, contrary to popular view, simply a difficult decision. Then it would be a decision, and it wouldn't have a fancy name.

A Sophie's Choice is a situation where the wolf team loses no matter what it does.

Another dead wolf today, plus an established pro-town network, with few loose ends sticking out, likely baned, and some vanilla villagers who certainly look pro-town. And even if you don't argue in Eldritch Knight's defense today, many of the folks defending EK are already under some level of their own individual suspicion, so if the EK lynch happens, they still don't look good.

Next, defend EK explicitly to try to stop that from happening, and it still isn't a great outcome, because everyone is still under suspicion and they know it. And there are scries that could happen. And they're worried that they can hit vanilla villagers who have already called for their heads, or try to hit a baned mason, or aim in the pile of suspects they need alive so they can cause mislynches and try to hit village powers who might also be baned.

In other words, a truly, truly unfortunate situation for the wolves.

It would be a brave decision to band together today in defense of Eldritch Knight, particularly if he were caught dead to rights, and nobody said anything about how he's caught dead to rights.

Then you have to do it in a way that looks natural.

Such as the statement:

EK seems to never provide logic regardless of alignment. Anti-town, but my point stands for now.

And this argument:

For not pointing at Alarra. seriously? May as well lynch me for not voting Lex-kat if that's the only logic we have. EK plays few enough of these games without being lynched over trivial rubbish like that

Our man Eldritch Knight can do no wrong. For him to die today it would be a tragedy, because he's not doing anything unusual, and sure, he's doing something unusual but it would be a terribly trivial reason to lynch him.

Now do you understand my point?

These two defenses do not go together. They are opposing arguments. When taken together, there is nothing Eldritch Knight can do to look wolfy.

That is why there is a really strange and forced defense of Eldritch Knight happening right now, and there's no way he should not lynch today.

If Eldritch Knight does not lynch today, the very next person who votes for Abhorsen will be tomorrow's lynch.


Edit: Wow what timing, pizzaman. Day has ended.

Better hope he's guilty now! LOL

[Mordokai]

((And before anybody asks, yes, I feel like the biggest scumbag because of what I've done.))

There has been time for joy and merriment and it has been a gluttonous one indeed. Full of ham, horseradish and boiled eggs. There may have been a stroke or two and the demand for anti-hypertensives will be increased for the next couple of days, but you know... nothing out of the norm.

But, all good things must come to and end and this one is no exception. As tradition dictates, an effigy must be burned at the end of celebrations. Away with the old and in with the new. Usually, that's not a problem, what with many talented artists in the village, one of them would come up with something nice to burn.

The problem being, as it turns out, nobody did this year. And, as usual in cases such as this, nobody will confess to being guilty. The carpenter is blaming the painter, the painter professes the guilt of the sculptor and so on and so forth...

Amidst all the bickering and threats of violence, the local beggar has the misfortune to wander among the throng. The clanging of change in his tin cup is accompanied by his asking of mercy for a blind man, as he swings his stick before him.

The sadistic grins on the faces of everybody around him would give him pause and make him run away... if he could see them. Alas, that was not to be given to him. As he is slowly dragged towards the pyre with promises of warm lodging, the rest of the townsfolk get prepared for the honoring of the tradition. When the poor guy is bound and gagged and the pyre is lit, the cheer goes up amongs the crowd.

It's not long before it turns into screams of panic, as big balls of fire start flying from bonfire. Seems like some nincompoop put sticks of dynamite in there instead of regular wood. A rookie mistake.

When everything is at the end, there are two burnt corpses... one above and one bellow.

Dental records comparison showed no fangs present.

Bummer.

Summary: Eldritch Knight was lynched, he was a villager. Sabeki was autolynched, he was seer/fool. Night two starts now and ends in approximately 24 hours. Send your actions to both Mordokai and Zar Peter.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In Memoriam, Eldritch Knight







Requiescat In Pace

I promised you that if you were innocent, I'd eat my pizza.

I'll never forget a promise.

You know it's true.




Take note, wolf team: There's no way I'm being baned tonight.

My barbecue-soaked rotisserie-style flesh is absolutely, 100% vulnerable.

And quite delicious, if I may say so myself.

[BasketOfPuppies]

Love the robot puppies. So cute!

Thanks! Fullbladder did them, but he did take his time. (like 4 months of time.)

[Saposhiente]

Yeah this might actually add up to "EK is unreadable because he never contributes" which is why I am now seriously considering policylynching him D1 if there's nothing better to do. Should read Mafia II first but actually I can't find it atm.

PS Baner and other seer/fool, hopefully seer, make sure to contact Tasroth before the end of the night.

[banjo1985]

Is there an up to date player list anywhere? Zar's hasn't updated on Page 1. Yes, I am lazy.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Alarra

Sabeki- Seer/Fool, D2 Autolynch

BasketofPuppies

Duck999

Tanar Aerdoth

Penguinator

Count Dingdong

Nonayer

Saposhiente

Chessgeek

LoP

banjo1985

Lex-kat

bladescape- Werewolf, D1 Lynch

Eldritch Knight- Villager, D2 Lynch

Legato Endless

Lord Fullbladder, Master of Goblins

Fleeing Coward

Abhorsen

Askthepizzaguy- Baner, N2 Murder

Tasroth

Eternis- Mason, N1 Murder

Spoiler

Show

Ahhhahahaha... I'm just kidding, could you imagine?

[Zar Peter]

END OF NIGHT 2
(Dawn of Day 3)

The wolf cook was desperate. The Alpha demanded food. But not any food. No, it had to be meatloaf. But not any meat. It had to be horse meat. But not any horse meat, it had to be...

STOP! That's an absolutely awful narration. Try again.

Ok, ok.

Meatloaf day it was. The cook nearly wanted to cry. There were no knifes available in the whole wolve cave. What should he do? It wasn't as if the meat itself would show up with knifes, was it?

Suddenly he heard a commotion in the entrance cave. Sounded like... a fight. He opened the door to his kitchen a bit and looked outside. There it was. A unicorn, the best meat for meatloaf in the whole world. And knifes! Ok, they were taped to his front hooves and currently it was using them to slit open the throats of his fellow wolf friends who were trying to fend of the intruder but these were just minor inconveniences.

He slipped back into the kitchen, took a pot, swung it around, shook his head, took a pan, swung that around, nodded, looked around, found a bigger pan, took it and smiled. Then he slowly opened the door a bit again. 4 of his fellow brothers were lying in their blood outside, the fifth was coughing and the unicorn still was in rage. But he couldn't see the cook because there were 3 more wolves fighting with it. The cook slipped outside, raised the pan and brought it down at the head of the unicorn. The hooves of the poor beast suddenly gave in as the unicorn became unconscious. There it lay. The cook untied the knifes and did a happy dance. The pack then helped him to drag the unicorn into the kitchen and the cook delivered a perfect unicornmeatloaf that day (he even decorated the loaf with the horn). The alpha wolf was absolutely delighted.

Summary:

Saposhiente was killed and eaten by the wolves, he was a villager.

Day 3 begins and ends in about 48 hours (Friday to Saturdayish)

Player	Role	Died on
Alarra
Sabeki	Seer/Fool	Autolynch day 2
BasketofPuppies
Duck999
Tanar Aerdoth
Penguinator
Count Dingdong
Nonayer
Saposhiente	Villager	Eaten night 2
LoP
banjo1985
Lex-Kat
bladescape	Werewolf	Lynched day 1
Eldritch Knight	Villager	Lynched day 2
Legato Endless
Lord Fullblader, Master Of Goblins
Fleeing Coward
Abhorsen
Askthepizzaguy
Tasroth
Eternis	Mason	Murdered night 1
Chessgeek

[Askthepizzaguy]

Swing and a miss, eh wolfies?

Banjo

@work wont be back for 9 hours.

[Saposhiente]

Yeah I thought this might happen, natural consequence of making myself too trustworthy . Also avoids Baner WIFOM entirely. Oh well, go get em town.
PS Check your BBCode, Zar

[Eldritch Knight]

Yeah this might actually add up to "EK is unreadable because he never contributes" which is why I am now seriously considering policylynching him D1 if there's nothing better to do. Should read Mafia II first but actually I can't find it atm.

PS Baner and other seer/fool, hopefully seer, make sure to contact Tasroth before the end of the night.

Ask and ye shall receive.

Mafia II. Full Thread.

Huh. It never got the closing narration... Oh well.

[Chessgeek]

Banjo, in hopes of encouraging others to vote.

[Fleeing Coward]

Banjo. Might as well make it an official bandwagon.
Interesting change from your long posts Pizza but Banjo's pretty high on my list of potential wolves so I'm willing to see where this goes.

[Penguinator]

Duck999 to explore other options. His vote for Fleeing Coward yesterday seemed out of place.

[Duck999]

Duck999 to explore other options. His vote for Fleeing Coward yesterday seemed out of place.

I didn't see enough reasoning for other people, and didn't want to add to a bandwagon on a possible villager.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Banjo. Might as well make it an official bandwagon.
Interesting change from your long posts Pizza but Banjo's pretty high on my list of potential wolves so I'm willing to see where this goes.

End of Night / Start of Day happened just as I'm leaving from work.

Anyway, the thing I didn't talk about yesterday was the following: Wolves knew Eldritch Knight was a villager, and was gaining much in the way of votes.

Voting against the wagon for a villager allows the wolves to have votes placed on fewer known quantities. What I mean by that is, it's kind of easy to tell that someone is dangerous to the town / bad at finding wolves if they lynch villager after villager every day. I've noticed wolves tend to look for votes which do not result in a lynch, especially if there's no wolves being hanged that day.

That way, we don't know how accurate or inaccurate their voting record is. The less information town has, from a wolf perspective, the better.

They could even be voting for a fellow wolf and we wouldn't know it. Later, if said wolf dies, they look better. So they get credit for not lynching a villager and/or looking good for voting for a wolf later on, with all the benefit of not actually having to lynch a wolf.

As such, I predict that there are more wolves still on the Abhorsen wagon from yesterday than there were on the Eldritch Knight wagon.

Simple as that, and it's also easy to come up with reasons to suggest that lynching EK is bad when you know he's villaging.

If he lynches for reasons such as these, wow, wouldn't it be tragic, lynches, see I told you so, etc.

So it's a generic case, which applies to several players.

Of those, Banjo seemed the most PIS-y.

Spoiler: P.I.S.

Show

Perfect Information Syndrome.

Banjo as wolf knows I'm not wolf and neither is Eldritch Knight yesterday, votes a third candidate who is still unknown to us.

Hey, maybe he's just that good at the game. That's the other explanation. I will fully admit I have my betters and I'm not ashamed to admit that.



- - - Updated - - -

Yeah I thought this might happen, natural consequence of making myself too trustworthy . Also avoids Baner WIFOM entirely. Oh well, go get em town.
PS Check your BBCode, Zar

I'll have you know I was slightly suspicious of you due to your poking around with the whole soft mason claim before it turned into a hard claim.

I had a wacko theory that you were a wolf scooping out my non-mason play that I came up with, so as not to have the rest of the wolf team fall for it.

But you acquitted yourself quite nicely and I had you as strongly villager by the end of that day.

Some doubts yes, but still leaning villagery.

[banjo1985]

Woah, woah, woah (sweet child o' mine)

Or maybe, just maybe, it's because I genuinely think EK gets the arse end of things in WW games and actually deserves to play for more than two days for once? I know if I were him I'd have probably quit by now, because he never gets a fair crack of the whip. He's also a bad vote for a wolf, because of the amount of times he seems to end up being the devil.

PIS is not viable here, if I'm a wolf. The devil starts blind in this game. How would I know EK wasn't the devil? Unless the devil luckily scried a wolf night 1 and got in contact? The chances of that, while I give you it's viable, are slim. Me genuinely not wanting to see EK lynched for metagame reasons is the more likely premise of the two. Or there's a third - I'm the devil. 1/22 chance, I'm making that the least likely of the three.

I guess there's a forth as well, that I'm the wolf or devil, and still didn't want to see EK lynched for metagame reasons. But, wolves don't have emotions, do they?

So yeah, I still want to vote for Abhorsen, but I'll go for Duck999 whilst the bandwagon on me remains, as he's the only other poor sap with a vote.

I'll await better reasoning as to why I'm up for the chop too. I didn't vote for EK seems to be the sum total of it, and by that token about 14 of us are guilty.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll await better reasoning as to why I'm up for the chop too.

Them's the reasons. At least they are being offered.

Plenty of votes made around these parts with none attached.

[Legato Endless]

What I think happened last night:

Okay, so Sapo is gone. Unfortunate, but not surprising to a certain line of thinking. Our Mason is probably connected now, so attacking there is pointless. That leaves either trying to bedevil the village and mislead them, or take out the known quantities. If we assume the latter? I was pretty sure it was going to end up being Sap, myself, or Pizzaguy yesterday, in that order. Sapo was extremely active before death. I look pristine, and am therefor a risky lynch proposition. Pizzaguy is currently lynch immune for a brief period. Having appeared to abandon the former strategy for the moment, the wolves took out the one player actually willing to archive dig and construct a profile. Also an interesting choice because of the three of my selections, Sapo was considered the most ambiguous in the public consciousness, and the easiest to swing a lynch vote against. I haven't pinged anyone's senses as anything scummy except maybe a deep cover devil which puts me below Sapo as a kill candidate, and Pizzaguy is very unlikely to provoke a similar reaction after just undergoing trial by fire. He's not technically clear yet, but the town is going to want to take a collective breath before trying anything there again. So Sapo's death is odd for one model of thinking, but fits very well in another. Not necessarily something we can game later, but it might give a clue about the group we're facing favoring a brutal safe choice elimination rather than anything fancy for their night game. Eternis fits well into this paradigm as well, as a devil would almost certainly post day 1. They don't have the support network to risk not doing so.

So let's pick a candidate:

Duck is not a bad choice all things considered. He's not among the eerily quiet, so he isn't perhaps the classic wolf. Then again, we have 3 or so people out of the posting loop, which obfuscates things. That said, he has been rather reactionary. He made a move against Chessgeek on day 1, for a flavor posting no one else took seriously. Paranoid, or hoping for a hook? On day 2, he misconstrued Fleeing Coward's question as a diverted vote. Now, FC looks pretty grey in the current game, but his post on its own isn't really a neon sign. On day 3, we have…nothing. Actually yeah. Duck, who do you think should die?

Banjo has 3 votes, enough for contention, and we have time with the deadline.

So let's nominate someone else. I'm not feeling the Lex-Kat innocence. She hasn't contributed really, beyond asking why we weren't killing one of our mason candidates. That's probably worth looking into. Looking at the most popular wagon yesterday, we have 3 people who ping as possibly suspicious. Of those, intuitively I'm giving Penguinator the benefit of a doubt. He gave a good short summary on day 2, and he's a crafty player, going last on the innocence band wagon seems obvious for him. FC will depend somewhat on whether we see Banjo flip today. His suspect list deserves some elaboration at least. But that still leaves one decent candidate. Smack in the middle of the bandwagon of humanoids and a chicken, a hive mind of canids.

Basket of Puppies, why did Eldritch Knight merit your vote? Also, you're being very quiet for this game.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I don't know why he merited my vote. Also I've been pretty quiet in all of my games. I've been swamped with homework as of late.

[Duck999]

Banjo: I hope you realize it would have been a much better idea to put information against someone else if you wanted to avoid being lynched. As of now, you just voted for someone so you wouldn't die. Seems kind of wolfish. Why wouldn't you supply reasoning against someone else to get other people to vote for them. Why would you throw a vote against me? Kill another person without reason to keep yourself alive? Wolfish to me. Please tell me if I am just being dumb and I missed something.

[Saposhiente]

I'll have you know I was slightly suspicious of you due to your poking around with the whole soft mason claim before it turned into a hard claim.

I had a wacko theory that you were a wolf scooping out my non-mason play that I came up with, so as not to have the rest of the wolf team fall for it.

But you acquitted yourself quite nicely and I had you as strongly villager by the end of that day.

Some doubts yes, but still leaning villagery.

I have a response to this but feel that I should wait until the end of the game to give it.

[Count Dingdong]

Apparently the AL period for this game is 2 days. I just got done with the midterm/project chaos that was this week, and I'll get to analysis shortly. In the meantime, so I don't AL, I'm putting a placeholder vote on Askthepizzaguy for the sole reason that he's probably the most likely to be cool with it. Him or Fullbladder.

This vote will change. I just don't know when day ends and don't want to die from something as simple as AL...

[Askthepizzaguy]

Indeed, it's the vote that is the least likely to accidentally cause a mason death, for example.

[Count Dingdong]

General Day 1 impressions... Alarra/EK pointing at the same person back to back instead of at each other was rather odd. Still, the more suspicious of the two was EK as a result of that, and he's villager. I now wonder about Lex-Kat... but her D1 post doesn't really rub me one way or the other. I was also going to have fun with Chess and the Werewolf News before I got bombarded with responsibility. Boo that. Of the Fullbladder vs. Chessgeek wagons, for some reason I feel the Chessgeek wagon was more suspicious, which is strange because I know I'm villager, Sapo was villager, and now the only other person was Fullbladder who... was the first vote. Yeah, not much. I'm not sure what to think of the Fullbladder wagon, aside from the fact that it kinda did grow quickly... blade's only town read was Fullbladder, but I'd actually put him as telling the truth on that one. It'd be too obvious/risky if he were lynched and only backed one person, with that person a wolf. Maybe if he backed other people, but I'm guessing the people left off the list are where the wolves lie. Of course, that's a whole lot of people... Pengi pointing blade is null and doesn't really clear him, at least as a first vote on him. That said, I don't feel off about Pengi at this moment. Fleeing Coward seemed a bit off, but I can't pinpoint it. That said, he didn't do much, and the EK suspicion was reasonable. Nonayer, Abhorsen, and Tasroth didn't vote, of the currently alive. If I had gotten on before Day end, I would have attempted to save bladescape, simply on account of him being killed so often recently. Of course, I'm always loath to lynch him, so... yep. Sad he's dead, but glad at least it was a wolf.

On to Day 2... pizzaguy/Chessgeek fake claim. Well. That was fun. That said, I don't see wolves counterclaiming that, so Tasroth is pretty clear in that regard. It doesn't rule out pizzaguy or Chessgeek as wolf, but D1 makes it unlikely. It's definitely something unusual to this forum: generally speaking, liars are wolves, since town has no need to hide information, and them lying about their role is just as if not more likely to screw things up than help things. I will agree with pizzaguy that Sapo's pressure on Tasroth was a bit odd, and I would have noted that. Of course, he's now dead and village, so... yep. Bring on Abhorsen's vote, and it's a bit strange. Of course, it's also following the revealed-fake mason claim... FC points at EK again, and while it feels off, for some reason it also doesn't. Duck's vote then feels a bit odd, though it just might be the idea that anyone who's town would feel off about the fake mason claim, but wolves would know it's not a wolf ploy (there's good reason to assume both pizzaguy and Chess are town), so it's the votes off-pizzaguy that strike me as odd around that time. Lex gets a slight town lean in this sense. People who didn't vote: Tanar, Nonayer, LoP, and me. Tanar asked to withdraw, Nonayer's away, LoP's sick, and I was busy. so it doesn't look like anyone's actively trying to fly under the radar. I would like Nonayer to get some post in, though...


So... Town reads: Tasroth, Chessgeek, Askthepizzaguy, Legato Endless, and I know I'm town. Leaning town: Penguinator, Lex-Kat. Leaning wolf: Fleeing Coward, Duck999, Abhorsen, Lord Fullbladder. I think there at most 2 wolves in that list, leaning Fullbladder/Duck. Away/Resigned/Etc: Tanar Aerdoth, Nonayer, LoP. At most one wolf in this list, I would guess. List of people not on a list: Alarra, banjo1985, BasketOfPuppies.

((Rereading with this list in mind, I had Fullbladder as leaning town and moved to leaning wolf over the course of Day 2... Hmm... I wonder what exactly caused that change of impression.))

With that in mind, I go on to today... banjo wagon is interesting. I like it, and if banjo's a wolf, FC goes leaning town instead of a slight lean wolf. I like Pengi's point on Duck and will follow it up, in part to give options and in part because he's one of my likely-wolf candidates. banjo's vote is self-saving; Duck as wolf doesn't clear him, though it helps. I agree with the BasketOfPuppies vote, though I feel it's not quite the right time for that. Then again, I don't like BoP's response, so... maybe it was? I'm curious about how the day will proceed...

Duck999

Current Vote Tally (~24 hours left?)
banjo1985 - 4 (Askthepizzaguy, Chessgeek, Fleeing Coward, Duck999)
Duck999 - 3 (Penguinator, banjo1985, Count Dingdong)
BasketOfPuppies - 1 (Legato Endless)

No Vote - 9 (Alarra, BasketOfPuppies, Tanar Aerdoth, Nonayer, LoP, Lex-Kat, Lord Fullbladder, Abhorsen, Tasroth)
Tanar asked to resign or be replaced but is otherwise up for AL. Nonayer is marked away. LoP is likely sick again but is also up for AL.

Huh. Votes are closer than I thought. Well, that could make things interesting. I'll keep watch and see if I want to change my vote...