Warhammer 40K Tabletop XXIV: ...And They Shall Know No Fluff

[Renegade Paladin]

Ah, I see you have Forge World.

Spoiler: Khorne Daemonkin Formation that is Legal and Amazing.

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Click the Link, just do it.

Should read; At the start of your turn, choose an enemy unit. Remove it from the table.

What if that enemy unit is a mob of Hammernators, or heaven forfend a full squad of Bullgryns? There are melee threats in this game scarier than Berzerkers - it's just that no one takes them (or at least doesn't spend that much on them) because shooting is so much better. But if I knew someone in my meta was doing this and there was literally no way to keep my big units out of immediate combat with 20 Berzerkers, I'd build something that can deal with 20 Berzerkers to the face.

[Cheesegear]

I think I've done the math right, and the squad has about a 75% chance to destroy a Land Raider and an 80% chance to destroy a ghost ark with the flamer include, so the additional firepower might not be necessary, but the only other thing the 1500 point Eldar list I'm running has that can deal with AV 13/14 are the lances on a Crimson Hunter Exarch. Or is this one of those questions where a full list is necessary for context?

Heavy Flamers are the meta. Giving anything a Heavy Flamer if the option is available is rarely the wrong choice...Unless your other choice is a Melta weapon. Especially if the guys with the Meltaguns are BS5 to even the odds. Especially if those Meltaguns have Tank Hunters available.

If it were me, I'd be thinking about also putting a Blaster or Blast Pistol on the BS7 Archon. You've already said that your only Heavy hitter, is your Crimson Hunter, and that doesn't come on 'til Turn 2. Neither does the Webway Portal. You really want a Turn 1 punch. Can you bring a Ravager? Or minimum Trueborn with double Dark Lances? Better yet, if you've got the Fast slot open, why not have the Fire Dragons in a Raider?

I just don't like the idea that neither of the units are on the board in Turn 1, and they're not even guarenteed to show up on Turn 2, either.

What if that enemy unit is a mob of Hammernators, or heaven forfend a full squad of Bullgryns? There are melee threats in this game scarier than Berzerkers - it's just that no one takes them (or at least doesn't spend that much on them) because shooting is so much better.

Oh, absolutely. But Turn 1 charges are silly strong against the right (wrong?) opponent. The Str-D attack isn't fantastic, since it only affects Buildings and Vehicles. But it's not nothing. If you can land the Fist of Khorne on a Void Shield Generator on Turn 1, you can laugh and laugh and laugh.

[Turalisj]

What if that enemy unit is a mob of Hammernators, or heaven forfend a full squad of Bullgryns? There are melee threats in this game scarier than Berzerkers - it's just that no one takes them (or at least doesn't spend that much on them) because shooting is so much better. But if I knew someone in my meta was doing this and there was literally no way to keep my big units out of immediate combat with 20 Berzerkers, I'd build something that can deal with 20 Berzerkers to the face.

10 Lychguard + Obyron + a voidreaper equipped Overlord say hi.

[Drasius]

What if that enemy unit is a mob of Hammernators, or heaven forfend a full squad of Bullgryns? There are melee threats in this game scarier than Berzerkers - it's just that no one takes them (or at least doesn't spend that much on them) because shooting is so much better. But if I knew someone in my meta was doing this and there was literally no way to keep my big units out of immediate combat with 20 Berzerkers, I'd build something that can deal with 20 Berzerkers to the face.

If that is a 10 man unit of hammernators, then they lose 6 before they swing (80 WS5 Str 5 attacks doesn't care about your 2+ save) and kill a total of 6 berserkers before they are destroyed in ~3-4 rounds of combat.

If that is a full unit of bullgryn (who I assume has a priest for fearless and who manages to pass his re-rolls armour saves every single turn) and they've all got the slabshield (otherwise they're all dead because chainaxes are AP4) then the berzerkers uselessly flail at them for 7-8 rounds of combat, but your opponent has also taken 500 points of ogryn and priest that you are in no way are obligated to attack with your berzerkers. If he, for whatever insane reason, doesn't take a priest or you manage to snipe him out, they punch each other for 14 rounds of combat (or 7 game turns) and there is about 1 ogryn and 5 berserkers remaining (though the ogryn would likely be swept before it got to that stage).

There's not much that can actualy deal with 20 berserkers who get to charge at full strength, but then, they also cost ~400 points and are incredibly unwieldy and almost impossible to deliver outside of a khornes fist formation. I still maintain that berserkers need another base attack and/or free chainaxes however.

10 Lychguard + Obyron + a voidreaper equipped Overlord say hi.

10x Sword and board lychguard and orikan (no overlord) will kill the berserkers in 4-5 rounds of combat while only losing ~3-4 lychguard assuming they are in a decurion (and why wouldn't they be?). Congratulations, you can effectively cheat by using one of the most hax units in the game, you're very clever.

Whoops, read as Orikan, not Obyron, my bad.

With 10x sword and board lychguard and Obyron in a decurion, it will take ~6 rounds of combat, but you will lose ~8-9 lychguard. You are at very minor risk of losing combat in the first round with some minorly bad dice luck however, since neither Obyron nor the lychguard are fearless.

[Turalisj]

I don't have nearly anything across my armies with that amount of assault power behind it- even my grey knight army only has 2 units of terminators with mixed weapons. Granted, I usually have enough shooting to keep assault units from getting too nearby. For instance, 30 skitarii vanguard.

[Cheesegear]

There's not much that can actualy deal with 20 berserkers who get to charge at full strength, but then, they also cost ~400 points and are incredibly unwieldy and almost impossible to deliver outside of a khornes fist formation. I still maintain that berserkers need another base attack and/or free chainaxes however.

Well, yeah. That's why The Fist of Khorne is actually good. It makes Berzerkers relevant. Which they haven't been since 4th Ed.

But the greater threat is that there's 20 of them. How many units can you multi-Charge with that many models? If you can tie up a ranged unit (especially Eldar or Tau) for even a few turns, the rest of your Khorne army has those valuable one or two turns to walk up the board, doubly and triply true if you've just Charged two or three units. You lose your Rage bonus, but that's cool. Because you've got 20 dudes. Berzerkers are also Fearless, they'll tie up a Star unit for a while, unless that unit has Hit & Run. With 20 models in the unit, they're not even that particularly worried about Stomps, either. The Berzerker Champion can wail on a Wraithknight for one or two turns, once all 20 are dead, the Wraithknight turns around to see a completely unharmed D-Thirster coming their way.

[Ricky S]

On the issue of fire dragons i would be more tempted to take the melta shot over the flamer. Eldar shouldn't be lacking in anti infantry at all but anti tank is a little bit harder to come by depending on what's in your list.

[Cristo Meyers]

The majority should have Storm Shields (so in a box of 5, that means 3). Power Swords are dirt and garbage. Storm Shield-models are losing an attack anyway, and Lightning Claws are the same points and come with Shred. Bring at least one Power Fist or Thunder Hammer, but probably not more than two. However, if you've given them all Storm Shields, giving them all Power Axes (and one or two Fists/Hammers) isn't necessarily the worst, since unlike All-Axe-Honour Guard, Vanguard can actually pick up Invulnerable saves and might actually live 'til I1.

Vanguard are tricky. You really need ~8 to get the versatility out of the unit that you really want. Also, Chaplains with Jump Packs are really helpful to the unit.

Thanks. Luckily they're not even out of the box yet, I got distracted by creating makeshift Repressors out of Rhinos (they look the part, though they don't look like the actual model). I figure that if they're going to get fielded at all, then it's going to be with either a jump pack Chaplain or Captain and probably as part of the Kauyon formation that lets them drop without scatter if they're close to 2 Scout units.

[Requizen]

What are good alternative models for Chaos Spawn? I was thinking about using Putrid Blightkings, but I'm not sure the sizes are right.

[Turalisj]

Green army men, a light, don't even bother cutting the feet from the bases they come on.

[Cheesegear]

What are good alternative models for Chaos Spawn?

Beasts of Nurgle? Riderless Juggernauts? Finally, a use for those terrible Mutilators that you put together once and have regretted ever since? I actually think that Fiends of Slaanesh look great as Spawn.
Riderless Plague Drones without wings also look kind of cool.

[Selpharia]

Heavy Flamers are the meta. Giving anything a Heavy Flamer if the option is available is rarely the wrong choice...Unless your other choice is a Melta weapon. Especially if the guys with the Meltaguns are BS5 to even the odds. Especially if those Meltaguns have Tank Hunters available.

If it were me, I'd be thinking about also putting a Blaster or Blast Pistol on the BS7 Archon. You've already said that your only Heavy hitter, is your Crimson Hunter, and that doesn't come on 'til Turn 2. Neither does the Webway Portal. You really want a Turn 1 punch. Can you bring a Ravager? Or minimum Trueborn with double Dark Lances? Better yet, if you've got the Fast slot open, why not have the Fire Dragons in a Raider?

I just don't like the idea that neither of the units are on the board in Turn 1, and they're not even guaranteed to show up on Turn 2, either.

That makes sense, the difficulty though, is that without the Hunter, I don't have much AA, and most of the available anti-tank platforms aren't very resilient, I'd be concerned that they wouldn't reach their target or wouldn't do enough damage before being destroyed. The benefit with the WWP is that the Dragons appear in the exactly correct spot for either a template or a melta barrage (leaning toward the melta), and the Shadow Field lets the unit eat a pretty immense amount of Interceptor fire. likewise, my concern with a Blaster for the Archon is that she's hanging with a unit that is basically already guaranteed to destroy any unit of tanks it touches. I have Spiders and scatterbikes to deal with light/medium armor, and I feel like multiple AV 13+ vehicles probably means an explotable weakness somewhere else. The Dragons also fill out the second Aspect Host, so losing them means reworking the whole list. Trueborn are a neat idea, maybe worth it in a larger list.

[Turalisj]

For a small, 500pt tau force, thinking two strike teams of 10 fire warriors, two crisis suits with burst cannons, and a cadre fireblade. This would be against an ork forces, so the burst cannons would actually be worth it.

[Cheesegear]

That makes sense, the difficulty though, is that without the Hunter, I don't have much AA, and most of the available anti-tank platforms aren't very resilient, I'd be concerned that they wouldn't reach their target or wouldn't do enough damage before being destroyed. The benefit with the WWP is that the Dragons appear in the exactly correct spot for either a template or a melta barrage (leaning toward the melta), and the Shadow Field lets the unit eat a pretty immense amount of Interceptor fire. likewise, my concern with a Blaster for the Archon is that she's hanging with a unit that is basically already guaranteed to destroy any unit of tanks it touches.

.83 To Hit.
~.92 To Pen AV13 (with Tank Hunters).
.33 to roll 5+ on the Damage Table.

= 0.25. You need exactly four Meltaguns to kill AV13. If your target has a Cover Save (Smoke Launchers, Ruins, etc.) or an Invulnerable save (Imperial Knights), you need one more Meltagun. Either on the Exarch or the Archon. Doesn't matter which.

Like I said, I have no problem with Crimson Hunters (best Flier in the game), and I like Fire Dragons in a 'Portal. What I don't like is that neither of those threats are on the board at the start of the game. But, if you don't like going first or Seizing, then I suppose not having your threats on the board is a good thing?

[Selpharia]

.83 To Hit.
~.92 To Pen AV13 (with Tank Hunters).
.33 to roll 5+ on the Damage Table.

I think that's 6e Fire Dragons

7e gave them a flat +1 on the Damage Table, with the exarch getting a reroll option on either To Hit or Pen. Ignoring that, though,

.83 to hit
.72 to Pen AV13
.5 to roll 4+ on Damage Table

.30 chance of destroying it outright per shot, so with four it'll go down with a little room to spare, but five, as you point out, is better dealing with cover saves. I don't see a lot of Super Heavies locally, though the idea of just blasting them to smithereens so quickly is amusing. I generally plan on getting Seized on, just because it's so disastrous for my poor space elves to get caught by a seize attempt, but range and cover on reapers, flickerjump, and jetbike shenanigans are usually enough to keep me from suffering too disastrous of a turn 1, with room to pivot if I don't suffer Hyperlogical Smackdown. The Exarch reroll makes a melta worth more on him, so I'll just put it there, keeping the Archon as-is. Hopefully I'll have a chance to try this out this coming weekend, and I'll see how it goes

[Drasius]

What are good alternative models for Chaos Spawn? I was thinking about using Putrid Blightkings, but I'm not sure the sizes are right.

"propainted" minis from ebay.

Skaven rat ogres also do a passable job and there should still be trillions of them floating aroundf for cheap on ebay since they were junk and in the island of blood starter set.

Vargheist/varghulf, whichever is the right size, or crypt horrors though I suspect part of the aim of this is to get cheaper miniatures, so they're probably out. Much the same story with Minotaurs, cockatrice (who are both probably a bit too big anyway), the beast from the gorebeast chariot, razorgors, yhetees, river trolls, salamanders and razordons.

I remember seeing a pretty cool conversion done a while back with a kharybdis (?) and they'd just used the heads and some greenstuff to make like, 5 different spawn.

[bluntpencil]

.83 To Hit.
~.92 To Pen AV13 (with Tank Hunters).
.33 to roll 5+ on the Damage Table.

= 0.25. You need exactly four Meltaguns to kill AV13. If your target has a Cover Save (Smoke Launchers, Ruins, etc.) or an Invulnerable save (Imperial Knights), you need one more Meltagun. Either on the Exarch or the Archon. Doesn't matter which.

Like I said, I have no problem with Crimson Hunters (best Flier in the game), and I like Fire Dragons in a 'Portal. What I don't like is that neither of those threats are on the board at the start of the game. But, if you don't like going first or Seizing, then I suppose not having your threats on the board is a good thing?

That's not how statistical probability works. Four 25% chances does not make a 100% chance.

If you buy four '1/4 chances of winning a prize' scratch card, you don't have a 100% chance of winning. It's still far from certain.

[Cheesegear]

That's not how statistical probability works. Four 25% chances does not make a 100% chance.

Oh, I know MathHammer doesn't work, and it's purely theoretical. But that's exactly how statistical probability works in theory. If you shoot four Meltaguns at an AV13 Vehicle, most times, you should be rolling one or more 7s (Explodes! result) on the Damage Table at the end. You could roll four 7s, you can roll no 7s, but you only need one.

How many BS4 Meltaguns does it take to kill a Land Raider in one Phase? About eight. Could be more, could be less. Less Meltaguns run the risk of not killing the Land Raider in one phase and ruining your alpha strike. More Meltaguns is an extra 20 Points you could be spending on something else.

[Voidhawk]

So, here's the 1,000pts list of the previously mentioned tau list. Will be playing two games, the first 500pts the second 1,000pts. Whoever wins the first game gets to deploy first, but whoever loses gets +1 to seize and +1 to reserve rolls. Game is vs orks.

Let me just clean up the list and see what you're working with.

Spoiler: Farsight Enclaves 1000pts

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Farsight Enclaves CAD

Farsight

10 Breachers
Bonding Knives, Guardian Drone, Marker Drone, SMS Turret,
Shas'ui: Markerlight, Target Lock
Devilfish
Automated Repair System, Blacksun Filter, Disruption Pod, Sensor Spines, Twin-linked SMS

3 Crisis Suits
Bonding Knives, 6x Marker Drones
(2x Burst Cannon, Drone Controller)
(2x AFP, Target Lock)
(2x Burst Cannon, VRT)

10 Pathfinders
3x Rail Rifles, Bonding Knives, Pulse Accelerator Drone, 2x Marker Drones,
Shas'ui: Blacksun Filter

1 Broadside
Heavy Rail Rifle, Stim Injector, 2x Marker Drones

1000pts

First the most important questions:
What is your metagame like?
What kind of players/armies are you expecting at the tourny?
How serious is this tourny likely to be?
How long have the other players been playing?
What kind of advice are you looking for from us?
Do you have an image of the kind of army/playstyle you want to field?

Obvious list issues:
1) Other than the lone Broadside, you have literally nothing that can scratch a tank. If the Ork player brings a Battlewagon, or even multiple Trukks, you'll be in trouble.
2) Crisis Suits are the only source of special weapons (Missile Pods, Fusion, Plasma) in the Tau army, and the strength of Farsight Enclaves lies in bringing loads. Taking Burst Cannons and Frag-Projectors on them misses out on their main usefulness.
3) By my count you have 19 Markerlights, and only 16 models that can benefit from them. Markerlights are important to the Tau stategy, but not so important you should bring them before guns that use the tokens.
4) You have no Anti-Air (though markerlights can do that job in a pinch)
5) You have a single vehicle, so all your opponents AT-firepower will be directed at it.

Small points-efficiency thoughts:
1) Breachers are a mobile unit, liking to run towards the enemy and fill them with plasma. The Missile Turret and Markerlight-Shas'ui on them are Heavy, so will generally be going to waste.
2) Pathfinders on the otherhand, like to stand still and mark things. The Pulse Accelerator Drone and Rail Rifles won't generally be as useful as you imagine. Marking doesn't care about cover-saves either, so the Blacksun-Shas'ui isn't necessary.

[Drasius]

So, here's the 1,000pts list of the previously mentioned tau list. Will be playing two games, the first 500pts the second 1,000pts. Whoever wins the first game gets to deploy first, but whoever loses gets +1 to seize and +1 to reserve rolls. Game is vs orks.

Spoiler

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+ Combined Arms Detachment +

Farsight Enclaves

+ HQ +

Commander Farsight

+ Troops +

Breacher Team [Bonding Knife Ritual, 9x Fire Warrior with Pulse Blaster, MV36 Guardian Drone, MV7 Marker Drone]
DS8 Tactical Support Turret [Smart Missile System]
Fire Warrior Shas'ui with Pulse Blaster [Markerlight and Target Lock]
TY7 Devilfish [Automated Repair System, Blacksun Filter, Disruption Pod, Sensor Spines, Twin-linked Smart Missile System]

XV8 Crisis Battlesuits [Bonding Knife Ritual, 6x MV7 Marker Drone]
Crisis Shas'ui [2x Burst Cannon, Drone Controller]
Crisis Shas'ui [2x Airbursting Fragmentation Projector, Target Lock]
Crisis Shas'vre [2x Burst Cannon, Vectored Retro-Thrusters]

+ Fast Attack +

Pathfinder Team [Bonding Knife Ritual, MV31 Pulse Accelerator Drone, 2x MV7 Marker Drone, 6x Pathfinder]
Pathfinder Shas'ui [Blacksun Filter, Pulse Carbine with Markerlight]
3x Pathfinder with Rail Rifle [3x Rail Rifle]

+ Heavy Support +

XV88 Broadside Battlesuits [Bonding Knife Ritual, 2x MV7 Marker Drone]
Broadside [Stimulant Injector, Twin-linked Heavy Rail Rifle, Twin-linked Smart Missile System]

I see you chose not to take any advise and go with a bunch of sub-optimal choices. Interesting.

Oh, I know MathHammer doesn't work, and it's purely theoretical. But that's exactly how statistical probability works in theory. If you shoot four Meltaguns at an AV13 Vehicle, most times, you should be rolling one or more 7s (Explodes! result) on the Damage Table at the end. You could roll four 7s, you can roll no 7s, but you only need one.

How many BS4 Meltaguns does it take to kill a Land Raider in one Phase? About eight. Could be more, could be less. Less Meltaguns run the risk of not killing the Land Raider in one phase and ruining your alpha strike. More Meltaguns is an extra 20 Points you could be spending on something else.

8 meltas seems like too many, but then I suppose only 6 hit and 2 of those might not glance or pen since you're needing 6+ on 2d6 so you should hull it out even if you don't pop it. Same deal for the 4-5 meltas at AV13 since they're almost exclusively 3 HP.

One thing our Eldar scumbag player has noticed, and I shall quote him "My 5 Firedragons have NEVER not exploded whatever they have shot at."

[Cheesegear]

8 meltas seems like too many, but then I suppose only 6 hit and 2 of those might not glance or pen since you're needing 6+ on 2d6 so you should hull it out even if you don't pop it. Same deal for the 4-5 meltas at AV13 since they're almost exclusively 3 HP.

Oh, no. It is. 8 is for Land Raiders. AV14 on every side. If you can kill a Land Raider, you can kill pretty much anything that isn't a Super-Heavy. Even if you don't roll a 7, you should still get 4HPs and kill it the hard way. Although the 'hard' way is actually the easy way, since you only need 7 Meltas, which is less than the other way. But, like I said before, if the Land Raider pops Smoke or something (Turn 1 is Night Fight, everything gets Stealth, etc.), you need an extra. Well, I do.

One thing our Eldar scumbag player has noticed, and I shall quote him "My 5 Firedragons have NEVER not exploded whatever they have shot at."

Oh, for sure. But, as it has just been revealed to me, Fire Dragons don't have Tank Hunters (Melta weapons don't need Tank Hunters), they have +1 to Damage. With AP1 weapons (which is way better than 'Hunters if you've got Melta weapons), that gives them +3, which means that every shot which Penetrates, has a straight 50% shot to blow away a Vehicle. I can well believe that Fire Dragons will kill any Vehicle that they look at. Putting them in an Aspect Host (BS5) is just silly.

[LCP]

Oh, I know MathHammer doesn't work, and it's purely theoretical. But that's exactly how statistical probability works in theory. If you shoot four Meltaguns at an AV13 Vehicle, most times, you should be rolling one or more 7s (Explodes! result) on the Damage Table at the end. You could roll four 7s, you can roll no 7s, but you only need one.

No it's not. The binomial formula is what you ought to apply here - chance of n successes given N attempts.

[Sam cw]

Hi everyone, I'd like some advice. I got the HH box set, and along with some extra guys from a lot I bought off someone I have 60 power armor marines and I'm not sure how I want to put them together.

I'd like to do it with an eye towards being resilient to meta and rule changes, so I thought it might be a good idea to assemble more of the special gear options than are legal to field at once, allowing me to swap guys in and out of squads to make whatever force I want at the time. It would mean I can't use them all at once, but most of them usable all the time seems better than all of them now and a lot less later when something changes.

For bits, I have 4 Plasma Guns, 4 Meltas, 5 Flamers (1 already on a Black Reach marine), 3 Combi-weapons that can be made into any of those three, 5 Missile Launchers (1 on a Black Reach marine again), 3 Heavy Bolters, 7 Power Fists (6 left-handed, 1 right), 3 bits to make a Power Fist into a Lightning Claw and plenty of Bolt and Plasma pistols. Oh, and five Jump Packs, which might be worth magnetizing, but otherwise I'll probably skip them.

My current thought is to make all of the special and heavy weapons, the Combi-weapons as Meltas, and two each Fists and Swords. Veteran bling on the CC and Combi-weapons, to make them usable as sergeants or in Veteran squads. That would give me the ability to field four full squads of Tacticals, possibly plus a small Devastator or Sternguard squad. Or maybe even both.

In case it helps, other SM units I've got are the 2 5 man Terminator squads from Black Reach and Clath, 3 standard Dreads (Multimelta, TL Heavy Flamer and Assault Cannon) the Contemptor, 3 Rhinos, a Las Raider, a Stormtalon and a Stormraven. No Drop Pods.

[Yaktan]

No it's not. The binomial formula is what you ought to apply here - chance of n successes given N attempts.

Yeah, this is why things like scatter lasers end up doing so much better than single-shot stuff, because the variance only goes at the square root of your dice, so more dice is relatively more consistent.

[Selpharia]

No it's not. The binomial formula is what you ought to apply here - chance of n successes given N attempts.

True. Although thankfully, if all we care about is explosion and not calculating destruction by HP loss, the math is simple. I think I did it right this time,

Spoiler

Show

5/6 to hit
7/12 to pen if hit (rolling 7+ on 2d6 21/36= 7/12
1/2 to destroy if penned

results in .243
so each shot has a 24.3% chance of destroying the vehicle in question outright. So we can just ask what the probability is of this never happening (1-.243) over four or five shots

.757^4, which comes out to about .32 in four shots, so about a 68% of success using the heavy flamer option.

Assuming we add in the Exarch, who we'll say for the sake of simplicity will exercise his reroll option on the roll to pen

5/6 + 1/36 to hit *BS6 gives a 1/36 chance that you roll a 1, then a 6
7/12 + (5/12 *7/12) to pen (factoring in the reroll)
1/2 to destroy

results in .356
so the Exarch alone has a 35.6% chance to explode the vehicle. The exarch's chance of failure is thus (1-.356) or .644

In order for our noble Fire Dragons to fail in their duty, both the four regular dragons and the exarch must fail to destroy it, so we have .757^4 * .644 chance of failing. This comes out to about .211. (1-.211) is the chance of non-failure, so .789

So a bit less than an 80% chance of success with the Exarch.

EDIT: With the same caveats, I think I've got the chance to destroy a Land Raider without blowing it up pegged correctly at .8% for 4 fire dragons and about 3% for 4 fire dragons with a fusion/melta gun exarch. Also, as far as i could figure, the chance of them beating out 4+ cover to destroy the Land Raider is about 50%

I haven't redone the math for cover saves or for destruction by HP depletion, but it's so unlikely in the 4-shot case that it barely pushes the needle up toward 70%, but I think if I'm going to invest so heavily in the squad as to give it a reasonably kitted out Archon to keep it alive another turn and make assaulting it less attractive, the exarch with fusion gun is a good choice to make sure it does what it's supposed to do. Like I said, I'll hopefully get a chance to try it out in practice this weekend.

[LeSwordfish]

I also suspect the "you need about one more shot to beat 4+ cover or invulnerable" is wrong too - surely it halves the number of successful explosions you get? So for the same chance, you need double the guns.

[Requizen]

For a bike Sorcerer in a unit of Spawn, is it worth going into Crimson Slaughter to get Divination? There's lots of stuff in there to beef up his unit (4++, rerolls, rending), as opposed to basically just Endurance from Bio.

On the other hand, Precog is not as good as Iron Arm/Warp Speed for the Sorcerer himself. And by going Bio, you can take a Force Staff because Iron Arm gives AP2 and don't need to rely on the Force Axe going at I1.

[LCP]

I also suspect the "you need about one more shot to beat 4+ cover or invulnerable" is wrong too - surely it halves the number of successful explosions you get? So for the same chance, you need double the guns.

For the same number of explosions, you'd need double the guns, but you only need one explosion to get through.

The formula Selphara applied (correctly) is P = 1 - (1-p)^N, where P is the total chance of success and p is the chance of success from a single shot. Cover modifies that to P = 1 - (1-(p/2))^N, so the scaling isn't linear.

[Turalisj]

I see you chose not to take any advise and go with a bunch of sub-optimal choices. Interesting.

Sorry, I'll just stop posting lists here.

[Selpharia]

For the same number of explosions, you'd need double the guns, but you only need one explosion to get through.

The formula Selphara applied (correctly) is P = 1 - (1-p)^N, where P is the total chance of success and p is the chance of success from a single shot. Cover modifies that to P = 1 - (1-(p/2))^N, so the scaling isn't linear.

Speaking qualitatively, each additional shot "helps" only when it produces a success where there would have been a failure. It's the same principle as rerolls, esentially. Another shot turns a percentage of the failures into successes. For instance, if there were a weapon that had a 50% chance of causing an explosion per shot, so eaxch additional shot turns another 50% times you would have failed if you had one fewer shot into successes, so each additional shot is less helpful than the last, since, wjhile the percentage of failures turned into successes remains constant, the failure gradually becomes less likely, so there are fewer failure cases being turned into a success by each shot. So cover starts out making things 50% worse, but because there are more failure cases for any given shot, more of the absolute percentage gets turned into yummy successes.

I found the below exercise helpful, because I am a huge dork who's not very good at math

Spoiler: Selphie's silly math exercise!

Show

Consider our super D weapon above, with a 50% chance to destroy whatever it shoots at

1 shot: 50% explosion
2 shot: 75% explosion
3 shot: 87.5% explosion
4 shot: 93.75% explosion
5 shot: 96.875% explosion
6 shot: 98.437% explosion


with 4+ cover

1 shot: 25% explosion (half as effective as without cover)
2 shot: 43.75% explosion (about 60% as effective as with cover)
3 shot: 57.8% explosion (two thirds as effective as without cover)
4 shot: 68.35% explosion (about 72% as effective as without cover) 6.65 total percentage points less effective than half as many shots without cover
5 shot: 76.26% explosion (about 78% as effective as without cover)
6 shot: 82.19% explosion (about 83% as effective as without cover) 5.31% total percentage of outcomes less effective than half as many shots without cover

so, at a glance, it looks like LeSwordfish's "twice as much to go as far" is correct, but the same number of shots, or less of an increase in total guns to compensate for cover, might get you not quite as far, but far enough.