Middle Earth WW:The Return of the King

[Legato Endless]

What's this? Syldar, you say? Sure...
___________________________________________Edit line_______________
Oh wait, now people are saying Murska... but... fine Murska until something else kicks up.

Okay.

Shadow it is. Until I get something that isn't a complete regurgitation of popular sentiment, you look entirely too weird to be ignored.

[Silent_Interim]

Mostly you just earlier posted things that might've come from a wolfish place.

Such as? I think you might have said that before but I would appreciate it if you could bring up specific posts.

Things like pointing at a person you don't suspect while saying that you don't understand my reasons to be suspicious of you right after posting this kind of does up you on my list a bit.

Generally if the thoughts you post are what you're really thinking, you don't just forget about them immediately afterwards, specifically if nothing interesting has happened that could've changed your opinion.

Actually, something interesting did happen- you stated your intent to try and get a wagon going to lynch me. If that isn't something interesting that could change my opinion, I don't know what is, quite frankly. Again, I do see your point, but I like to think that I would be consistent as a wolf if nothing else.

[Pelican]

I'm not entirely clear on why I'm so suspicious to you. I'm genuinely inexperienced at this game, I've played twice on the forums and been a wolf both times, meaning I have virtually no villager experience. I also don't know many of the players well if at all. I've already said this, but you're continuing to act as if I've not even defended myself. If you could clarify your case beyond "I played the inexperienced card," which, being inexperienced, I should have every right to play, I would appreciate it greatly, Murska.

I had actually forgotten that you were a wolf in both your previous games... that makes me less suspicious of you, closer to a no read than anything else now I think. Sorry for trying to use your inexperience against you.

Anyways I want to express my opposition to the Murska wagon and mild opposition to the Syldar one. I'd be ok with a Syldar lynch; I read him as slightly townie but there's also an instinct telling me not to trust that read, if that makes sense. I think at this point I'd still lynch Elenna, Meta, or especially Shadow (for the sneaky edit) over Syldar, but I'd lynch Syldar over Murska. I'll switch my vote depending on which wagon seems to be gaining the most traction.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Prodding Beck Novo, you have 24 hours to respond. :)

[Meta]

That reminds me, thank you for the insight on the players you know, it was helpful, Pizza.

[Murska]

Such as? I think you might have said that before but I would appreciate it if you could bring up specific posts.

Let me check.

Well. That was nice. I'm kind of inclined to agree with Mrs McGinty though. Phantom was the only bandwagon, really, and all the other votes were spread thin.

Here. Also the immediate backpedalling in the following post. Plus, this isn't even true - Phantom was just barely ahead a couple others.

Ugh. This is a mess. I don't have ANY strong reads on ANYONE. I'm going to wait for more people to say more things.

Here. Only a very slight wolf lean, but still. There was no impetus for a post such as this from a villager perspective that I can see.

Welp. Stuff happened.

I refer all of you to Pizza's link regarding me- I have no strong feelings one way or the other. I can't do any reads based on tone, I don't know anyone well enough to say if they're being normal or abnormal. And I don't have enough experience with the game to know what's wolfy and what isn't. That said, since you all insist, I'll share what few thoughts I have.

Spoiler: My observations.

Show

Duck- Syldar's weird vote against him makes me want to say town. Other than that, no clue.
Ramsus- Seems to be actively participating and hunting wolves, which feels like a positive to me.
Askthepizzaguy- Gut is telling me town.
Pelican- Seems to be participating and providing reasonably solid reasoning for votes.
Meta- Ergh. He defended me earlier, which makes me want to say town, but I see a lot of merit in the arguments against him.
Luizeu- I'm not 100%, but my gut is telling me town. It's fair enough to be defensive when everyone is always attacking you. I don't really like the evidence against him, either.
Fleeing Coward- There's the whole mechanical thing. Other than that, I'm not seeing anything radically different ot the last time I played with him when he was town.
Syldar- Definitely not getting a good feeling here. That vote on Duck did not seem well-founded.
Choxorn- Hasn't really been active that I recall.
Beck Novo- hasn't said much. That could be wolfy, trying to avoid the spotlight and not do anything suspicious, but I don't think so.
Mrs. McGinty- Again, not many posts, but I don't know if that's indicative of anything.
TFT- Hasn't been around, really. I feel like he's probably been in absentia rather than trying to lie low.
Murska- Eh. He's suspicious of me, but I can see the reasoning for it.
Everyone else- I haven't noticed them or remembered what they've said well enough to call it.

I'm going to go with Syldar. I don't have a wolf read on anyone else.

Here. Mostly because there's a list of suspicions, none of which are really suspicions at all and most of which are actually saying that the person named is likely town, which tends to be wolves trying to ingratiate themselves with people they know are villagers. ("This person is correct about me, he must be reading correctly.") There's also a lot of agreeing with other people's opinions and general sentiment going on. And a vote on Syldar, who was and is the main bandwagon target already.

Then there's the whole 'I can see the reasoning for why Murska is suspicious of me' and then Murska mentions being open to lynching you and you go 'Why would you be suspicious of me?!? You must be a wolf!'.

Actually, something interesting did happen- you stated your intent to try and get a wagon going to lynch me. If that isn't something interesting that could change my opinion, I don't know what is, quite frankly. Again, I do see your point, but I like to think that I would be consistent as a wolf if nothing else.

I don't see how it is something that'd change your opinion, if you were a villager. A villager has no care for their own life, so if someone's trying to lynch them and they believe there to be valid reasons for such so that the someone is not particularly likely to be a wolf, there's no reason to try and lynch them, instead you have to convince everyone to lynch someone you actually think is a wolf. Someone being willing to lynch you does not make them more likely to be a wolf, and so should not change your opinion on whether they should be lynched or not.

Note how I haven't even voted to lynch you, just noted off-handedly that I would be open for a wagon on you as a third candidate near the end of day.

[Silent_Interim]

The immediate backpedalling in the following post. Plus, this isn't even true - Phantom was just barely ahead a couple others.

Okay, so I miscounted the votes on others. I'm insulted that you think I would try to blatantly lie about the vote counts when anyone could do it. I slipped up. I made a poor choice, and then conceded that the choice was bad. That doesn't make me a wolf.

Here. Only a very slight wolf lean, but still. There was no impetus for a post such as this from a villager perspective that I can see.

Equally, what impetus is there to post it as a wolf? I posted to indicate that I was still being active, but that I wasn't voting immediately.

Mostly because there's a list of suspicions, none of which are really suspicions at all and most of which are actually saying that the person named is likely town, which tends to be wolves trying to ingratiate themselves with people they know are villagers. ("This person is correct about me, he must be reading correctly.") There's also a lot of agreeing with other people's opinions and general sentiment going on. And a vote on Syldar, who was and is the main bandwagon target already.

That's because I genuinely didn't have any strong wolf reads. Also, I don't have a lot to go on other than popular sentiment. Yeah, I said I had town reads on people. Because I have town reads on people. I also refer you to the inexperience card- I'm looking at other people's opinions because I don't have the experience to form my own. Also, the evidence against Syldar seems pretty solid to me.

Then there's the whole 'I can see the reasoning for why Murska is suspicious of me' and then Murska mentions being open to lynching you and you go 'Why would you be suspicious of me?!? You must be a wolf!'.

I don't see how it is something that'd change your opinion, if you were a villager. A villager has no care for their own life, so if someone's trying to lynch them and they believe there to be valid reasons for such so that the someone is not particularly likely to be a wolf, there's no reason to try and lynch them, instead you have to convince everyone to lynch someone you actually think is a wolf. Someone being willing to lynch you does not make them more likely to be a wolf, and so should not change your opinion on whether they should be lynched or not.

...What? First off, that's a misrepresentation of what I said. I asked for a clarification of why I'm suspicious to you. Think of it as a semi-OMGUS-ish vote after you said you wanted to try and get a wagon going on me.

Second off... no. Every villager death is a step towards a town loss, and I want to keep playing the game, on account of it being fun, so the only reason you shouldn't care about your own life is if you're a jester. If someone continues pursuing you when you know you're town, that should be evidence that they might not be. I don't have strong wolf reads on anyone else except maybe Syldar and Shadow, both of whom have already got people attacking them, or I would be calling them out.

Third, you do look like more of a wolf to me at least now that you've clarified your case against me and not defended it adequately. I don't particularly want to lynch you, since you've not done anything else wolfy, but nobody else jumps out at me as wolfy. If you want to point out somebody other than me who is wolfy, as you suggested I do, feel free.

Note how I haven't even voted to lynch you, just noted off-handedly that I would be open for a wagon on you as a third candidate near the end of day.

I never said that you had voted, I said that you stated your intent to try and lynch me. Which you did. And that was not off-handed by any reasonable definition, when you had already been trying to call me out as suspicious earlier and the entire content of your post was "Do you want to push a wagon onto, say, Silent Interim?"

[Legato Endless]

Congratulations on surviving the Mid Winter Oblivion! May your stores remain stocked and disease leave enough of your kin alive to see the spring thaw. Enjoy whatever necessary moral raising festivity on this darkest of weeks.

Merry Christmas, Good Saturnalia, Happy Secular Holidays, if Jewish: May your Chinese food be warm and bright on this non associated Day within your Holiday calendar, and so on and so forth.

Actual game post on Saturday, maybe.

[Murska]

Okay, so I miscounted the votes on others. I'm insulted that you think I would try to blatantly lie about the vote counts when anyone could do it. I slipped up. I made a poor choice, and then conceded that the choice was bad. That doesn't make me a wolf.

Doesn't exactly make you look good either.

Equally, what impetus is there to post it as a wolf? I posted to indicate that I was still being active, but that I wasn't voting immediately.

That'd be the impetus. A wolf is more likely (slightly) than a villager to want to indicate that they're active but not voting yet.

That's because I genuinely didn't have any strong wolf reads. Also, I don't have a lot to go on other than popular sentiment. Yeah, I said I had town reads on people. Because I have town reads on people. I also refer you to the inexperience card- I'm looking at other people's opinions because I don't have the experience to form my own. Also, the evidence against Syldar seems pretty solid to me.

I'll ignore any mention of inexperience because it's a null tell to me. Villager-y actions and wolf-y actions are what they are regardless of the experience level of the player, it's just the confidence level in your deductions that should change, and I don't have the need to compare my confidence intervals on you with those on someone else at this moment.

...What? First off, that's a misrepresentation of what I said. I asked for a clarification of why I'm suspicious to you. Think of it as a semi-OMGUS-ish vote after you said you wanted to try and get a wagon going on me.

I took it as an OMGUS vote since that's what it was, but generally a villager would just say they're doing an OMGUS vote. There's no need to hide it if you genuinely don't have a real reason for suspicion, except if you want other people to follow them anyway - not something Town does.

Second off... no. Every villager death is a step towards a town loss, and I want to keep playing the game, on account of it being fun, so the only reason you shouldn't care about your own life is if you're a jester. If someone continues pursuing you when you know you're town, that should be evidence that they might not be. I don't have strong wolf reads on anyone else except maybe Syldar and Shadow, both of whom have already got people attacking them, or I would be calling them out.

Strong opinions for someone inexperienced. If someone is trying to lynch you, that is not evidence they are a wolf. If it appears that they might have come to such a conclusion through genuine wolf hunting, that makes them vastly more likely to be a villager, in fact. And if you have strong wolf reads (as you indicate here (maybe) towards Syldar and Shadow) you should be trying to lynch them. I'm not reading your posts as having a strong wolf read on me, but if you do, feel free to elaborate.

Third, you do look like more of a wolf to me at least now that you've clarified your case against me and not defended it adequately. I don't particularly want to lynch you, since you've not done anything else wolfy, but nobody else jumps out at me as wolfy. If you want to point out somebody other than me who is wolfy, as you suggested I do, feel free.

Well, this is subjective on my part but I would say my case on having you as a slight wolf lean that I would not mind lynching but won't specifically target unless there are no other good options is pretty well-founded. Better than most in this thread, at least. As for other suspects, you might notice how I'm pointing at Meta. Shadow is somewhat pinging lately as well.

I never said that you had voted, I said that you stated your intent to try and lynch me. Which you did. And that was not off-handed by any reasonable definition, when you had already been trying to call me out as suspicious earlier and the entire content of your post was "Do you want to push a wagon onto, say, Silent Interim?"

The exchange was "I don't think Syldar or Murska are wolves based on the current interactions in this thread." "Me neither. Should we lynch someone else suspicious, such as Silent Interim?" At this point it was already very clear that Silent Interim is more suspicious than average and he'd been previously named as a suspect in the thread. I didn't add anything to the case and did not push for your lynch beyond naming you as a possible alternate wagon. In no possible world is it a proportionate response to OMGUS-vote someone you don't otherwise suspect based on that, moving off of a wagon of a person you already do suspect and making it, therefore, less likely for your wolf suspects to be lynched, specifically when there's literally no-one yet voting to lynch you and the top wagons are lightyears away. That's the action of someone who cares more for their own life than getting wolves lynched.

[Murska]

Hmf. Well, I think it's like 5-5 between me and Syldar right now. I guess I'll vote for him now as the deadline seems to be nearing and nobody seems to be around to push something else.

[Rain Dragon]

I'm around.
I'll have to count to see what other options there are. Idk, I don't like Syldar or Murska lynch much. In part because I feel there are better cases and also a gut feeling.

Omg, I'm like, at a PC for a change, so this shouldn't be nearly impossible to count.

- - - Updated - - -

...This might not be strictly accurate

Syldar - Elenna, TFT, Duck999, Choxorn, Fleeing Coward, Murska - 6
Murska - AskthePizzaGuy, Luizeu, MrsMcGinty, Rain Dragon, Silent Interim - 5
Elenna - Pelican, Ramsus - 2
Pelican - Logic, Snerk - 2
Duck - Syldar - 1
Beck - Meta - 1
Luizeu - GAAD - 1
Fleeing Coward - Lex-Kat - 1
Shadow - Legato Endless - 1

Out of the runners up, I'm honestly a lot more suspicious of Elenna than Pelican. But, for reasoning that's already been stated and that it feels like Pelican has contributed more.
:/

[Visor]

I'm taking the deadline as Saturday night 7pm Cuths time. If I'm around (i should be able to an update by phone hopefully) thats 1pm my time, so around 12 hours and 40 minutes

[Ramsus]

I believe earlier Murska asked me for a different target and yeah, apparently things are so focused on Syldar and Murska that nobody else is even close and I'm already on the third/fourth most person with votes. Which I still think is a decent person to vote for. Not amazing, but whatever.

[Silent_Interim]

Doesn't exactly make you look good either.

So? The point is, it's not evidence that I'm a wolf.

That'd be the impetus. A wolf is more likely (slightly) than a villager to want to indicate that they're active but not voting yet.

If you say so? I don't know if that's true. I'll take your word for it, I guess. I don't think that there's any reason for a wolf to want to indicate that more than a villager.

I'll ignore any mention of inexperience because it's a null tell to me. Villager-y actions and wolf-y actions are what they are regardless of the experience level of the player, it's just the confidence level in your deductions that should change, and I don't have the need to compare my confidence intervals on you with those on someone else at this moment.

I... disagree. An inexperienced villager is far more likely to make screw-ups that might make them look like a wolf than an experienced villager, mostly because the inexperienced player doesn't know what actions might look wolfy. So experience level does matter at least to some degree.

I took it as an OMGUS vote since that's what it was, but generally a villager would just say they're doing an OMGUS vote. There's no need to hide it if you genuinely don't have a real reason for suspicion, except if you want other people to follow them anyway - not something Town does.

That's a fair point. It wasn't exactly hidden, and I don't really want people to follow so much as I wanted to put pressure on you.

Strong opinions for someone inexperienced. If someone is trying to lynch you, that is not evidence they are a wolf. If it appears that they might have come to such a conclusion through genuine wolf hunting, that makes them vastly more likely to be a villager, in fact.

That's completely true. IF it appears that way. Which, to me, it doesn't.

And if you have strong wolf reads (as you indicate here (maybe) towards Syldar and Shadow) you should be trying to lynch them. I'm not reading your posts as having a strong wolf read on me, but if you do, feel free to elaborate.

...yeah, fair enough.

Well, this is subjective on my part but I would say my case on having you as a slight wolf lean that I would not mind lynching but won't specifically target unless there are no other good options is pretty well-founded. Better than most in this thread, at least. As for other suspects, you might notice how I'm pointing at Meta. Shadow is somewhat pinging lately as well.

I hadn't interpreted that as your meaning.

The exchange was "I don't think Syldar or Murska are wolves based on the current interactions in this thread." "Me neither. Should we lynch someone else suspicious, such as Silent Interim?" At this point it was already very clear that Silent Interim is more suspicious than average and he'd been previously named as a suspect in the thread. I didn't add anything to the case and did not push for your lynch beyond naming you as a possible alternate wagon. In no possible world is it a proportionate response to OMGUS-vote someone you don't otherwise suspect based on that, moving off of a wagon of a person you already do suspect and making it, therefore, less likely for your wolf suspects to be lynched, specifically when there's literally no-one yet voting to lynch you and the top wagons are lightyears away. That's the action of someone who cares more for their own life than getting wolves lynched.

That's not how I interpreted that exchange. At all. However, that's probably because I'm bad at interpreting things rather than because it was actually unclear. I have enough trouble with people when I have tone and body language to help me work things out. I'll take your word that that was the actual nature of the exchange, and as such I'll switch off of you, although it seems to me at this point that Syldar will get lynched whether or not I'm on that wagon.

[Cuthalion]

I'm taking the deadline as Saturday night 7pm Cuths time. If I'm around (i should be able to an update by phone hopefully) thats 1pm my time, so around 12 hours and 40 minutes

Oh yay, I was hoping you were going to post this.

Confirming that deadline in 15 minutes.

- - - Updated - - -

Day over...

[Visor]

Damn, I thought Cuth could get to this. I'm around now, doing update.

(Awfully busy time for me, sorry)

- - - Updated - - -

Duck (syldar
elenna (pelican, ramsus
pelican (logic, snerk
Beck (meta
luiz (gaad
Murska (atpg, luiz, mcgintym, rain
Syldar (elenna, TFT, duck, chox, fleeing, murksa
fleing (lex
shadow (elgato

- - - Updated - - -

Syldar was Orgulas Brandybuck a villager.

Night actions asap please, will try to get this back on track.

Phantom- Shagrat, plain wolf. Lynched D1.
Zar Peter, Legolas, mason, killed N1.
Sprig, Malva "Headstrong" Brandybuck, villager, lynched D2.
thematthew, Prince of Dol Amroth, baner, killed N2.
Syldar, Orgulas Brandybuck, villager, lynched D3.

Lex
Duck
Ramsus
Elenna
Shadow11615
Silent Interim
Askthepizzaguy
Logic
Pelican
Rain Dragon
Meta
Luizeu
Fleeing Coward
GAAD
Snerk
Choxorn
Beck Novo
Mrs. McGinty
Legato
TFT
Murska

[Cuthalion]

Deadline's at 7 PM PST again today, I'll definitely be around this time.

[Beck Novo]

Is there an update for this?

[Visor]

Cuth should be on it.

If its not done by 15 mins I'll do it.

- - - Updated - - -

LexKat was Gandalf, a seer/fool.

Phantom- Shagrat, plain wolf. Lynched D1.
Zar Peter, Legolas, mason, killed N1.
Sprig, Malva "Headstrong" Brandybuck, villager, lynched D2.
thematthew, Prince of Dol Amroth, baner, killed N2.
Syldar, Orgulas Brandybuck, villager, lynched D3.
Lex-Kat, Gandalf, Seer/Fool, killed N3.

Duck
Ramsus
Elenna
Shadow11615
Silent Interim
Askthepizzaguy
Logic
Pelican
Rain Dragon
Meta
Luizeu
Fleeing Coward
GAAD
Snerk
Choxorn
Beck Novo
Mrs. McGinty
Legato
TFT
Murska

47 hours for day

[Silent_Interim]

I'll go with Shadow, for reasons outlined previously.

[Cuthalion]

Sorry, Visor. I was planning to handle this just now; as I got sidetracked by visitors at deadline time.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is there a centralized network that I haven't been invited to (for obvious reasons, but still)?

Mason, Baner, Seer, is not a coincidence.

If there is a private grouping going on, it's infiltrated.

[Snerk]

How does one wake up TFT?

[Askthepizzaguy]

You prod him. Speaking of which, hi Beck. Please don't make a liar out of me.

Gaad

Would also lynch Pelican, choxorn, Murska maybe but I would prefer to put pressure on those who haven't gotten much pressure.

- - - Updated - - -

Shadow I'll assist with lynching if nothing picks up on the others.

[Meta]

Is there a centralized network that I haven't been invited to (for obvious reasons, but still)?

Mason, Baner, Seer, is not a coincidence.

If there is a private grouping going on, it's infiltrated.

Can anyone else shed some light on how PM heavy Lex usually plays?

I think it's more likely that their Seer is just on fire, unfortunately.

Beck has completely ignored my pressure, feeble though it may have been. At this point he is a reasonable emergency lynch I think, but let's start the day somewhere more productive.

Murska if we lynch we also get a pretty big clue about Lui. Can you offer anything more substantial than that?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah, mainly I've been distracted by another game which has a lot more real time chatting going on.

I don't mind following up on Murska, but I liked Ramsus' observation that it could have been village-village wagons, given how the group reacted to it. I think we will be much more productive if we add pressure to those who hadn't gotten as much before. Some persons can get passes, but others have been here and haven't been suspected a lot by anyone, or those suspicions vanished for no reason.

[Snerk]

/prods TFT.
You post, I unvote.

Not sure why the pelican wagon died so easy.

I'm not really seeing the Pelican wagon, looks like it's mostly based on him contradicting his D1 vote, but that was supposed to be a random vote so I don't really see a contradiction.

This defence is somewhat off. The main issue was not the vote contradiction but an (IMO) odd defence of Sprig.

Choxorn is being his usual low-key. But capable of much more than this. Will usually respond with content when pressured. But I can't really find any good accusations to throw at him ATM though.

[Legato Endless]

I'll place a pressure vote on Shadow for now.

Probably going to change this evening when I took a look and reevaluate the board.

[TFT]

Hi, I'm here.

I got all swept away by Christmas celebrations and post Christmas travelling, and let the game slip. I have a full week off so there is no excuse at this point.

I want to take a bit to read over the thread, and then I'll probably have something to contribute.

(...Though, since I am visiting family, it will probably be a few hours from now, when I have a chance.)

[Murska]

All right, let's give Shadow11615 (which is different from Shadow) a try.