Middle Earth WW:The Return of the King

[Legato Endless]

Huh. You know, I don't think you'll actually follow through on that Pizza. If you were alive...then maybe. But you're just a ghost now. You won't take this to the end after hazing about in the great beyond. Come on. You went out on a good note before. This is just kind of silly.

All of a sudden, no one is voting for Pelican. What has Pelican done to change you guys' view on him?

Nothing.

I feel like there hasn't been enough analysis today. Everyone's alive, but so far all the votes have been "this person is suspicious." We need to a dd more. We have another day's worth of stuff to look at. None of the people who previously voted Pelican have answered me yet (), though we have had two nice posts about reads. RD, do you have anything we might need to know?

The problem is holiday fatigue. There's no in game reason for a bunch of cleared players not to post. As for reads, I'm not quite so optimistic.

I also think that Snerk is most likely to be wolf. My other top suspects are Mrs. McGinty and Luizeu.

Chox, could you give any more? You've been fairly low key all game and I'd like some insight from you more than almost anyone else.

Oh, and if everyone's to be believed, he's been relatively quiet recently, which is a heavy indication of wolf, when they are winning. 'Shut up, and watch the show.'[/COLOR]

He has been active elsewhere for what it's worth. Normally wolves just vanish period when they use that tactic. If we have a wolf playing the cloaking game, I lean GAAD.

Luizeu
I've been suspicious of him on and off throughout the game. But he's posted some reads today with some explanation behind them, which makes me feel a little better about him. Still a strong wolf suspect, though.

Reads from (living) players mean much less so late in the game. There's a reason they're hoarded by both sides early on. Here the board is well known, so anything can look vaguely reasonable unless actually pressed. I can give a rundown on mine, but frankly this is starting to look like noise collectively than actual progression. We're only lynching one person today.

For now, though, I'll give the simplest possible answer to those questioning my votes for Murska: he looks like scum to me. With regards to the bit with Logic, I'm pretty baffled as to why this looks so good for him. Are we thinking he's a mason? If so, why didn't he say so? (For that matter, why didn't Logic say so? I'm very confused here as to what is the value of masons if not to prevent mislynches.)

No kidding.

I can't be the only one who finds posts like this really sketchy? Getting the mostly not up to date town to organize and choose a representative who will select the player they agree on is the best lynch is just never going to happen.

I thought Logic and Pelican were both good suspects so I didn't see a reason to break the tie. And I wanted to see how the tie would be decided. I figured it'd be either by someone with a tie breaking ability or from first player to break the tie after day's end. I see now that ties are just broken by first person to reach that number. If I wanted to blend in as possible it would make a lot more sense to join the Logic wagon. Or Pelican wagon if he's town. [/COLOR]

That is rather a lot of elaboration you're giving Snerk...

[Snerk]

^It's the exact amount of elaboration appropriate to a FoS that does not make sense.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I might unvote him, yes.

Doesn't mean much if I do. Basically all I needed to do today was be distracting.

Actually voting for someone at end of round gives away too much spew.

Unless.... it's game over.

MWAHAHAHAHAHAA

[Legato Endless]

I might unvote him, yes.

Doesn't mean much if I do.

Then why do you sound so nervous about all this? Not the vote. Your tone.

Basically all I needed to do today was be distracting.

Rephrasing the obvious when you actually could be quiet?

Hmmm.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think the odds of the village finding all the remaining wolves back to back to back is pretty low.

I'm not nervous.

[Mrs McGinty]

Huh. You know, I don't think you'll actually follow through on that Pizza. If you were alive...then maybe. But you're just a ghost now. You won't take this to the end after hazing about in the great beyond. Come on. You went out on a good note before. This is just kind of silly.

He's deliberately killing town morale, and it's working a treat. The fact he's doing it, though, means that scum still think they could lose this (either that or pizza's being needlessly cruel; I'd prefer to assume he wouldn't play like this just to amuse himself).

For what it's worth, you're my one lock town here. If scum, then congratulations are due, because you've comprehensively fooled my scumdar.

As for everyone else...

I've got some work to do.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I would rather see town go out on a good note, fighting the good fight.

I might be trying to kill town morale, yes, because that is good for me and my team.

But I would rather see that not actually work.

[ThePhantom]

Wait, I'm back in this? Alright.

Luizeu

[Silent_Interim]

Ugh.

Right, I'll be honest, I very much lost interest in this game, for which I am sorry. I really don't have an excuse. I can certainly see how my inactivity was suspicious.

Some analysis of the non-lynched players, then.


Duck
Has been posting more recently, but from what I recall was slightly bandwagony earlier.

Elenna
I find it interesting that she wasn't suspicious of GAAD for inactivity, but wanted to pressure me for it. Slight inconsistency there, no?

SI
C'est moi!

Pelican
...Eh? I've not noticed much from him recently.

Luizeu
I'm pretty suspicious of Luizeu at this point for reasons that other people have already articulated better than I can.

GAAD
Hasn't been around much lately either.

Snerk
Hasn't posted much of value lately that I've seen.

McGinty
Also been quite inactive, don't have a good read from before.

Legato Endless
Has he been around? I haven't noticed him much.

Murska
....Ugh. I don't know. I don't see him getting lynched today, though, and I don't have any evidence or a strong enough gut feeling about him to try and get him lynched.

EDIT: So, um, McGinty and Legato have posted in the time between me reading everything and typing this, and posting. They seem to be working to get wolves, so I'm less suspicious of them.

[Askthepizzaguy]

No! Phantom, you're giving away my master plan!

Everyone is going to hop onto Luizeu at the end of the round, just fyi.

[Mrs McGinty]

Going back to my drunken reads earlier in the game, the three players I picked out as scummy were Murska, Snerk and Pelican.

Since then, Murska has done nothing to reassure me of his tonwie credentials. Indeed, the only thing in his favour is the fact that more than one confirmed townie is treating him as more-or-less clear (for reasons I'm still struggling to grasp). Right through the game, and even more so in more recent days, his tone has been all scum for me.

Snerk, by contrast, has stepped it since I started getting on his case, and has been giving a more convincingly town tone than I've seen from him as scum before. That said, I'm still not sold. The times he's worked me over in the past, it was because I underestimated him. That isn't going to happen here. I know he's good enough to fake this, and, with that in mind, he looks a good bet for scum based on my early game read, and the fact that his tone still isn't close to clearing my threshold for a solid green read.

Pelican's signal:noise ratio has improved since the drunk read. But it's a pretty easy fix to make after I pointed it out, and, knowing that he can do believable town tone as scum, I'm still not seeing anything to call him likely town.

Still got to look at the others, but, given how things are set right now, I'm putting my vote on Snerk for the time being.

[Fleeing Coward]

Switching to Legato for now, may change back depending on some rule clarification.
He claims vanillager but we got a no result scry on him that wasn't the result of a scry interference.

[Mrs McGinty]

Being as he's in the firing line...

Spoiler: Luizeu's Early Game

Show

Humm I'll vote for The Phantom because I know he won't hold grudges

Red on red? Quite possible. First vote on Phantom, early in the day. And once other votes stacked up, it might have seemed risky to switch off (and that's assuming he was even around to do so).

Hooray!
A Wolf already. That's great.
Welcome Beck, I hope you like it in here. This is the only place I play because I like the frequency of updates. It suits me.
I haven't played in as many games as Murska or Ramsus, but I guess it has been 1 or 2 years that I play sporadically. I'm still learning the ropes. I'd say.

Null.

I started the vote on ThePhantom because his playstyle is too difficult tô read. The way I see it his presence on the endgame usually flips all the odds

I like this. A few players here (and both of the hosts) will understand when I say 'vote: johnhughthom'.

You mean, just like Zar Peter did above me?
I'll OMGUS on Fleeing Coward for now.
Maybe If I get another wolf people will suspect less.

Reaction seems genuine enough, but could come from either side.

When I explained the reason why I voted for ThePhantom I was just Following Zar Peter's explanation. I thought it would be nice if people could understand my train of thought.

On Fc's vote:

Sorry, FC I dont think you can get 100% of trust just because of meta reasons like that. I know a lot can happen behind the curtains in a ww game, so this is not enough for me to clear you. But I'll remove my vote from yo because that explanation made sense. Re-reading what I posted it sounded dumb.
I dont think another vote on Sprig will help. I'll come back with another post and hopefully a new suspect.

This feels townie to me. If scum, he's faking town thought process here, which is considerably harder than just faking town reaction.

Duck, it was Day1. I didn't think my vote would get traction. I'm glad it did. And I didn't vote for ThePhantom alone, if he was lynched it was because people bought the idea.
I've never thought I would be criticized for voting on a wolf. That's a first on my history here. Well, why dont you all keep a close watch on me and see how the next days go about huh? How many wolves should I [sarcasm] "bus" [/sarcasm] until I'm considered one of the good guys?

Would the votes that were not counted change the outcome?
If they did, you should off me and bring Sprig back

More genuine-feeling reactions. Not clearing, but suggesting confidence if scum.

So, these are my 2 cents on the players so far:
Town leans: Rain Dragon, Ramsus, Meta, Duck and FC.
Wolf vibes : Elenna, Murska and GAAD
Could go either way: Syldar
No blimp on my radars: Everyone else.
I just find these last votes on Syldar really strange, it looks like they were timed to change the outcome of today's decision. If Syldar turns out to be a wolf that will be great. But I can see him being a townie as well.
To bring more balance (to the Force) I'll put my vote on Murska for now.

As I indicated directly after it, this post reflected a lot of my own thinking at the time. In particular, the reads on RD, Ramsus and Meta as town, that on Murska as scum, and the sense of disquiet at how things were going with Syldar. If he's scum, Luizeu has my town mind in his back pocket here.

Up to this point, at least, I'm not seeing anything to call Luizeu scummy, and quite a few bits that show either town mindset or a very decent impression. I still have to check out what followed, though.

- - - Updated - - -

Switching to Legato for now, may change back depending on some rule clarification.
He claims vanillager but we got a no result scry on him that wasn't the result of a scry interference.

Any idea what could explain that?

[GAAD]

...
gAAAH!

I'm so so sorry

I forgot about this game after I came back from my aunt's house.

Have I been autolynched yet?

If not

...
uh
...

Anyone have a recap or a brief suggestion of who's suspicious?

[Fleeing Coward]

Roleblock is what we're asking about but I'd think if someone got roleblocked they'd be told about it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You can't lynch Legato, he's just a boy. Poor little feller.

- - - Updated - - -

Anyone have a recap or a brief suggestion of who's suspicious?

Snerk is pretty suspicious, but I could also go for Luizeu.

Legato maybe, but I'm pretty sure we don't have enough time to lynch that guy.

IMO all we have to do is lynch the remaining wlolfs and we win.

Can I count on your vote, Gaad? Sorry about voting you before. That was all just a little joke.

[GAAD]

You can't lynch Legato, he's just a boy. Poor little feller.

- - - Updated - - -



Snerk is pretty suspicious, but I could also go for Luizeu.

Legato maybe, but I'm pretty sure we don't have enough time to lynch that guy.

IMO all we have to do is lynch the remaining wlolfs and we win.

Can I count on your vote, Gaad? Sorry about voting you before. That was all just a little joke.

Look, I literally forgot about this thread. I don't actually remember you voting for me.

But... I remember I found Luizeu suspicious before... and if he's still suspicious I'll vote for him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Nah, Luizeu is pretty much lock clear.

I mean uh... sure.... vote there.

Conspicuous winking smiley.

[Fleeing Coward]

Ignore Pizza GAAD, he's a known wolf.
I'd suggest voting Legato since there's a good chance both current wagons are town now.

Wish we had lynched Pelican yesterday because that'd have given much more information than we have.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Would you like me to lynch Legato with you, guy?

[Fleeing Coward]

Go for it Pizza, PM me the wolf list too. I promise I won't leak it

- - - Updated - - -

Actually just link me the QT, saves you the trouble of having to type up names.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Legato Endless

He's a wolf, and he's also the last remaining wolf.

It was just me and Phantom and Legato all this time, really. Everyone else is probably a villager but I have to admit I haven't been paying close attention to my quicktopic.

- - - Updated - - -

Go for it Pizza, PM me the wolf list too. I promise I won't leak it

- - - Updated - - -

Actually just link me the QT, saves you the trouble of having to type up names.

Very well, you've forced my hand. I give up.

http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/YW5JWn7fBdj

It's been a quiet several weeks.

[Mrs McGinty]

Okay, so next from Luizeu we see a couple of low-activity explanation posts, which are null.

And then a big post which (i) makes reads based on pizza's leans, and (ii) starts picking at Meta's posts with a scumhunting eye. If town, Luizeu was mistaken in both cases imo. I think they're believable mistakes, but they could just as easily be scum moves. Same goes with the subsequent Logic vote. What I'm asking myself here, though, is whether a scum Luizeu would know or care that these moves would make him a likely suspect. My best guess is that he would, and so they have a slight town lean to them in my book.

Then, after another mention of Murska as a suspect (which by this stage is null), we reach today and the customary read list:

Wow, that's actually very nice. Let's hope Powe roles are able to discuss things and find someone.They should indicate oneto represent them. I'll follow whoever they choose.

Luizeu- I've had good votes and bad votes. On the last day I didn't vote because I was not feeling the Shadow wagon.

Right now, my leans are the following:
GAAD
Snerk
Mrs. McGinty
Sporadic votes, following wagons and tryiong not to appear on the limelight. Though, if this is an alpha pick game, that might factor as well. I don't know about their previous interactions with ATPG
(Funny details: Gaad has never voted for Snerk or Mrs Mcginty, Snerk has never voted for Gaad or Mrs Mcginty and Mrs Mcginty has never voted for GAAD. Does it say anything? I really don't know what to think. Are they new players or experienced players? I can see new players not voting for their fellow wolves. )


Silent Interim
Pelican
Murska
I find it odd that the wagons on these people started picking up but then suddenly they were moved elsewhere.


Elenna
Legato
Duck
Can't put my hand in the fire, but I'd say they seem townie to me. or maybe they are doing a good job at being wolves.

Still not particularly scummy, but this is probably the least townie Luizeu has looked to my eye, perhaps betraying a nervousness about letting the side down if scum. The same might also be the case as town, though. And with the two most recent posts being null, there's not enough to push Luizeu anywhere near the top of my suspect list.

[Fleeing Coward]

There you go Legato, Pizza ratted you out if you're a wolf or misled me if you're town.
Either way, I am now blameless for both results.

[Askthepizzaguy]

It's Canada's fault, really.

[Fleeing Coward]

Canada is just been set-up, it's clearly the Kiwis that are really at fault.

[Mrs McGinty]

Silent_Interim read townie to me when drunk. Between then and today, there's been repetition of the same 'I don't know what to think' line. I'm searching my memory banks for an example of a scumbag playing like this and none come readily to mind. It's not the kind of thing that tends to improve ones chances of dodging the lynch.

And today we get the reads:

Ugh.

Right, I'll be honest, I very much lost interest in this game, for which I am sorry. I really don't have an excuse. I can certainly see how my inactivity was suspicious.

Some analysis of the non-lynched players, then.


Duck
Has been posting more recently, but from what I recall was slightly bandwagony earlier.

Elenna
I find it interesting that she wasn't suspicious of GAAD for inactivity, but wanted to pressure me for it. Slight inconsistency there, no?

SI
C'est moi!

Pelican
...Eh? I've not noticed much from him recently.

Luizeu
I'm pretty suspicious of Luizeu at this point for reasons that other people have already articulated better than I can.

GAAD
Hasn't been around much lately either.

Snerk
Hasn't posted much of value lately that I've seen.

McGinty
Also been quite inactive, don't have a good read from before.

Legato Endless
Has he been around? I haven't noticed him much.

Murska
....Ugh. I don't know. I don't see him getting lynched today, though, and I don't have any evidence or a strong enough gut feeling about him to try and get him lynched.

EDIT: So, um, McGinty and Legato have posted in the time between me reading everything and typing this, and posting. They seem to be working to get wolves, so I'm less suspicious of them.

Weaksauce by admission, but showing some effort at least (not sure that helps the case for town more than that for scum, though). The worst bit is pointing to Elena's inconsistency, which is more often a town trait and something that wolves love to point at. However, being as it's not backed with a vote, and with S_I unlikely to believe his post likely to sway anyone's opinion, I'd take it as null here.

Overall, S_I isn't one of my top suspects.

- - - Updated - - -

GAAD is the definition of null. There's very little to go on, and what there is could just as easily be lazy townie or shameless wolf (or, I suppose, lazy wolf).

- - - Updated - - -

Two players left to check and I'm still in line with my drunken reads. Confirmation bias? Or am I just as bad a scumhunter when I'm sober?

Meh, it's what I've got.

[Rain Dragon]

I'll help with Legato Endless for now in case we need it.

[GAAD]

All right, Legato Enless it is.

And McGinty? I am a Lazy, Brainfarting Vanillager who didn't subscribe to the thread and forgot about it over a long vacation until today.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, if Pizza is a known wolf, why aren't we lynching him?
I assume there's some sort of mechanical reason we are unable to?

[Mrs McGinty]

Elenna's early posts hint at a certain lack of confidence in her town skills. A nice enough line to take as scum, but not indicative either way.

Comment on bussing followed by vote on Sprig could go either way. Reaction to my sarcasm bit is neat if scum, as it sounds genuine, and I'd be surprised if any scumbuddy of pizza's would think that. If town, lynching Sprig was obviously a mistake, but it's a mistake I also made so I can't call it scummy.

Vote on Syldar is bad. First significant red mark. But there's also this apparent failure to realise that Sprig is dead, which seems more likely genuine from town than scum. If faked, this is playing the clueless townie line to an extreme.

Vote on Shadow 'for pressure' is bad again. Cheap bandwagon vote on an easy patsy.

Vote on Logic for 'pressure' is bad again. I don't wish to sound harsh, but, if town, Elenna has lived down to her self-image here (needs more confidence, faked if necessary, if only to give other townies more to work with).

And another empty vote on Logic. Wonders if this game is really alpha-pick. She's nothing if not consistent.

Votes Luizeu, asking for reasoning on Murska vote, and then (having got that reasoning) switches back to Shadow for no reason once more.

That brings us up to today, where we get a couple of big posts:

Spoiler

Show

Ooh, a summary! Thanks FC.

In case anyone hasn't figured this out yet, ignore everything Pizza is saying. This is not the wine you are looking for.

(EDIT: An explanation for anyone who hasn't heard the term WIFOM before.

At this point, if Pizza (or any known wolf) accuses someone, they could be a townie that he's trying to cast suspicion on. But maybe he thought we'd think that, so maybe they're a wolf. But maybe he thought we'd think that, so maybe they're town. But maybe he thought we'd think that...

You see the point. We have no way of knowing what level of deception he's working on, so it's best to just ignore his posts.

The term WIFOM (standing for Wine in Front of Me) is usually used to refer to situations where analysis will lead to a circular argument, which often occur when people are thinking about how their actions will look to others. It comes from The Princess Bride, where the Dread Pirate Roberts offers Vizzini two glasses of wine, one of which has poison in it. Hence my comment above.)

Some quick thoughts.

(2 hours later... Wow, this took longer than expected. I'm posting this at 4 AM, so it something doesn't make sense, that's probably why. )

Duck
Low initial participation, but he started posting more recently (or maybe it just looks like that because everyone has been posting less). Could be a wolf but I think there are better targets today.

Elenna
...I'm not a wolf. What were you expecting me to say?

SI
I defended his post about the Phantom wagon because I can easily see a first-time villager agreeing with what two other people already said, even if it wasn't really a good idea. However, he did look more wolfy later when voting on people but not stating any reads. I'd really like to see something from him today.

Pelican
Normally I don't like it when people state suspicions and then vote for someone different. But in this case, that would imply that I'm a wolf, which I'm not. So...um... no read, I guess.

Luizeu
I've been suspicious of him on and off throughout the game. But he's posted some reads today with some explanation behind them, which makes me feel a little better about him. Still a strong wolf suspect, though.

GAAD
I'd really like to know where he is... I'm willing to vote for him, I guess, but complete absence for days seems more like a bored vanillager than a wolf.

Snerk
Active with quite a bit of discussion/analysis, which is definitely a good thing. On the other hand, his helpfulness level seems to be decreasing recently, and yesterday's Murska vote is definitely a strike against him. Slight wolf lean, but he's not my highest priority

McGinty
Initially helpful, with some tunneling on Snerk. Disappeared after day 5, and I'd really like an explanation for yesterday's Murska vote. Slight wolf lean.

Legato Endless
Hasn't done anything to really rouse my suspicion. Slight town lean.

Murska
Well, he could be a wolf. He's Murska, he could always be a wolf. But there are better people to vote for than someone who voted on the counterwagon to a mason.

The first of these is cute if scum. The second is pretty consistent with what we've seen before, albeit with a lot more explanation (which is fairly scummy at this stage). The two hour gap could have been spent reading, but there's not enough detail in the post to prove that, so it could equally have been spent talking with pizza and co. in scumchat.

Overall, Elenna is scummier than some, but still less scummy than my top suspects.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm going to have to reread Legato, aren't I?

Really was hoping he could stay in my lock town box, but if that evidence is enough to make him a leading candidate, I'll have to check my assumptions.

Duck comes first, though.

- - - Updated - - -

And McGinty? I am a Lazy, Brainfarting Vanillager who didn't subscribe to the thread and forgot about it over a long vacation until today.

Sure, it happens. I've not exactly been Mr Activity myself until this evening. Even then, I've questioned whether it was worth making all this effort. But, what the hell, this is going to be my last game for a little while, so I might as well enjoy it.