Duck Season II: Firing Back

[Grand Arbiter]

I don't like this reaction very much.

This is my second game and I'm unsure who to vote for. I'd like to be certain I have sound reasoning behind my vote. I acted impulsively a few times in the Phantom of the Opera WW, which did not help town win the game.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I can completely understand voting for Elodin today, however I think that we should still get people talking. I'm going to put a bit of pressure FC to talk, since he has been acting pretty wolfy as of late, as detailed by others.

[Mrs McGinty]

Assuming that Elodin and Fleeing Coward are both town, where should we look for wolves?

Does scum ask this? I'm leaning not.

Fortuna to start.

Also curious about how thematthew chose his vote yesterday...totally random, random among people with votes? Just wondering...

Sounds more like just finding something to say. Tempted to throw down a vote on this.

Just because we can talk during the night doesn't make it a good idea. I agree with Deathslayer, that's a weird assumption. Aside from the obvious lack of any real reason to do so, it's weird because even if we assume it's true the suspect pool still winds up being pretty much everyone.

Only reason I'm not voting for Libro now is I just lynched him in another game in the last few days. I guess this means I should vote for norman250?

Disagree with the thought that Libro looks scummy for the above comment - and villains do love this kind of soft push - but Ramsus' tone reads a touch more town than scum here.

I'm going to be generous and assume that Libro's thinking was that it's obvious where we should look for wolves if one of those two is a wolf (since there is a good chance the other wolves were trying to keep their buddy alive). So he's asking what we do if it turns out we're in the situation where the solution isn't obvious.

In that case the answer is we don't have much to go on. If all the competing wagons were town, then the wolves wouldn't have to do much and could just sit back and blend in. Maybe look early on at who got the wagons going. But really, I think that under your assumption the voting record from yesterday will not be extremely useful. Unless someone more clever than me can find something in it, I guess.

Moving on, I'm sticking with my vote yesterday for now. Elodin. So I guess not moving on...

If wolf, this is a decent impression of a town mind.

Don't like the jump straight back on Elodin, though. Might well be the default lynch today, so what's the rush?

Elodin. Choo choo, cut the brakes.

Are you deliberately baiting me, Murska?

I soft claimed because I was tied on the lynch. Did not hard claim because I expect there to be punishment mechanics in place to help wolves in case of mass town role claims.

The fact that you're trying to lynch me for soft claiming in that situation is bad logic at best and downright scummy at worst.

I wouldn't characterise Black Socks' post as trying to lynch you - it looks like a push for info (which might itself be scummy, of course).

What am I missing here?

I can completely understand voting for Elodin today, however I think that we should still get people talking. I'm going to put a bit of pressure FC to talk, since he has been acting pretty wolfy as of late, as detailed by others.

Pushing both of the most obvious candidates in one post, whilst not mentioning anyone else.

If not for my need to climb into Murska's brain, I might well be voting here right now.

[Kish]

Does scum ask this?

"Stop looking somewhere specific and look at everyone generally"? Absolutely. But I don't think a Libro wagon is likely to get off the ground today (mixed metaphor that that is), and while Elodin's being pretty darn suspicious that wagon doesn't seem to need my help (and I can, and probably will, change my vote later), so as my second choice:

I'm with BasketOfPuppies. Let's hear some more information from Fleeing Coward.

[Murska]

Are you deliberately baiting me, Murska?

That depends. Are you a duck?

[Mrs McGinty]

"Stop looking somewhere specific and look at everyone generally"? Absolutely.

Why that particular question at that particular time, though?

Unless we want to assume that one or both of Elodin and FC is definitely scum, then the question is inherently pro-town. But I'd always expect that kind of comment to draw a certain amount of suspicion, especially when made at a time of high visibility (since few post at night). Now maybe scumLibro wouldn't have realised that, but even then I'm left wondering what the actual point of it would have been.

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That depends. Are you a duck?

I am not a duck.

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Wait, so are you saying that post was actually meant as duckbait?

[norman250]

This is my second game and I'm unsure who to vote for. I'd like to be certain I have sound reasoning behind my vote. I acted impulsively a few times in the Phantom of the Opera WW, which did not help town win the game.

I'll vouch that this is in line with Libro's behavior as town, from the one game I saw him in. He's pretty loath to lynch villagers unless he's certain they're wolves. Not saying put him down in the town column, just giving my two cents.

I'm trying to get caught up with everything I missed, and I don't have work scheduled until Monday, so I should have more time to go over the thread. For now, from my look through, I do thin Elodin comes off a bit as wolf, and I'm honestly surprised there aren't more votes on him currently.

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Don't like the jump straight back on Elodin, though. Might well be the default lynch today, so what's the rush?

This is a good point. I'll try to look through the thread and see if I can't find anyone who might also be point-worthy. (But I'll be honest, Pokemon Go came out so....)

[Murska]

I am not a duck.

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Wait, so are you saying that post was actually meant as duckbait?

Specifically, I was curious to see which people would be willing to join a bandwagon, how they would justify it and, even more interestingly, which people would steer off of it without actually challenging it directly.

[Mrs McGinty]

Specifically, I was curious to see which people would be willing to join a bandwagon, how they would justify it and, even more interestingly, which people would steer off of it without actually challenging it directly.

That's plausible enough, though I'm sure you'd realise that as scum too.

Any pings yet?

[Murska]

I like BasketofPuppies, I don't like Libro. I'm okay with Pelican.

Wasn't much of a reaction to it, to be honest.

[Mrs McGinty]

I like BasketofPuppies, I don't like Libro. I'm okay with Pelican.

So your reads are the mirror opposite of mine...

Feel like giving reasons just yet?

[Murska]

Mostly tone. I like people who are proactive about pressuring people and gathering information, I dislike hesitancy and appearance of weakness in thought or action.

[Pelican]

Sounds more like just finding something to say. Tempted to throw down a vote on this.

I'm sure I'll find a lot more to say if either Fortuna or thematthew show up today.

Does someone want to reiterate why Elodin is so suspicious? Preferably one of these people:

Elodin. It's not D1 anymore.

Moving on, I'm sticking with my vote yesterday for now. Elodin. So I guess not moving on...

I can completely understand voting for Elodin today, however I think that we should still get people talking. I'm going to put a bit of pressure FC to talk, since he has been acting pretty wolfy as of late, as detailed by others.

I'm trying to get caught up with everything I missed, and I don't have work scheduled until Monday, so I should have more time to go over the thread. For now, from my look through, I do thin Elodin comes off a bit as wolf, and I'm honestly surprised there aren't more votes on him currently.

[norman250]

I haven't gone over the whole thread yet, so for me it's mostly the weirdly motivated D1 posts. I may change my vote as I continue looking over the rest of the thread. I've kind of missed the whole game so far because I was busy at work.

[Pelican]

Actually, I agree with McGinty that Aventine looks fairly townie right now...I'd be most happy with an answer from Norman.

EDIT: Speak of the devil... (and he will post before you finish typing)

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But what do you mean by weirdly motivated?

[Elodin]

Well, I trust FC, for reasons I would not like to reveal but will if forced to, and Norman seemed a little too happy to lynch me.

[norman250]

Yeah, that was a bad move. Here's another early lynch for you, since the question mark in your post indicated that you asked a question. MrsMcGinty.

I don't see how bandwagons are beneficial to the village. Eliminators can just jump on the bandwagons most of the time. The more complexity, the better analysis.

An OMGUS vote, followed by "Hey let's concentrate on making useful votes for town." Like I said, it's early on, and it's what I'm working through now. I'm going out for lunch currently, will finish reading/analyzing the thread when I get back.

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Well, I trust FC, for reasons I would not like to reveal but will if forced to, and Norman seemed a little too happy to lynch me.

How so? As I mentioned, I'm going off of old data that I haven't finished looking through. I'm not married to the point at all.

[Grand Arbiter]

I guess I'll poke Eggel, since they showed up just in time for the night phase.

[Fleeing Coward]

If my watcher is to be believed, I was the target of 6 people last night.

I'm not going to give too many more details about my role for reasons previously stated but if the wolves don't kill me in the next night or 2, my role is easily provable.

We need a target other than Elodin. He's the "easy" lynch today which means he's almost certainly not the right one.

[norman250]

So, I went through the thread, and I'm less wolf-lean on Elodin, but I don't really have a wolf lean on anyone else.
The only real "read" I got is that I'm pretty sure Aventine is town.

If we want to look at other people than Elodin, I'll throw a point Murska. I saw you vote for FC day 1, but I didn't see where you explained why. Was it random, because of a lean or something FC said, or what?

[Murska]

Libro

So, I went through the thread, and I'm less wolf-lean on Elodin, but I don't really have a wolf lean on anyone else.
The only real "read" I got is that I'm pretty sure Aventine is town.

If we want to look at other people than Elodin, I'll throw a point Murska. I saw you vote for FC day 1, but I didn't see where you explained why. Was it random, because of a lean or something FC said, or what?

FC was one of the competing wagons, so I unbalanced them to push him in the lead and leave Elodin some breathing space, so as to see what would happen.

[Mrs McGinty]

Reading everyone individually, the most striking fact is there's a lot of people who have yet to give anything on which to make a call.

Overall, though, Black Socks comes out looking scummiest to me.

Spoiler

Show

Wow, I go away for the weekend and so much happens.
Anyways....oh glorious RNG, bless me with wisdom! And lo, RNG declares..... flat-footed!
Praised be RNG!
(tries to think of an appropriate role-playing character for a duck-hunt themed game)

'Skull' McShiv, a rough hunter who drove a motorbike, stepped out of the outhouse.

"Yo punks, it's out of- JOE? WHAT THE-"
Bleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep
"I'M GONNA KILL THOSE DUCKS!!!"
klik-klik
"LET'S DO THIS!!! YAAAA!!!"

Can we post a 'good luck' message in the thread if we get killed?

Skull stomps up to where the hunters are gathered. "Yo, punks, let the new kid explain himself! What about that Fleeing Coward of a hunter? Always running away.... Whatchagotta say for yourself?" He growled.

Care to explain this, Fleeing Coward? Why would you talk about your role, knowing that the wolves could night-kill you, unless you were a wolf yourself?

This is begging to be killed.....

That's one random vote, one pure roleplay, one question to the host, and one attempt to push FC for info. An impression of moderate activity, with no apparent townie intention.

Also, while I'm by no means convinced FC is town, he looks as good as anyone right now, and I know he has good instincts. I didn't agree with his suggestion that Socks was trying to lynch him, but I feel like he might have been right that there were sinister intentions behind that post.

[Lex-Kat]

I have it on good authority (myself, actually), that Fleeing Coward is evil.
(This is not a Seer claim. This is a Pixie vs. Chicken claim. :p )

[Penguinator]

I don't really like that today's leading wagons are exactly the same ones as yesterday. And I don't particularly like the look of the Fleeing Coward wagon.

Care to explain this, Fleeing Coward? Why would you talk about your role, knowing that the wolves could night-kill you, unless you were a wolf yourself?

As FC stated, it was a soft-claim. That's what most people do when they're tied for the leading wagon. You give a hint, but not an outright "Well, okay, I'm the X." THAT gets you killed.

And the reason that FC would claim, less-than-afraid of wolf retribution? Aside from potentially being a wolf, yesterday and today have proven to the wolves that Fleeing Coward would be an easy lynch. Elodin, as well, but Fleeing Coward doesn't have anybody saying that he's new so he shouldn't get killed.

I can completely understand voting for Elodin today, however I think that we should still get people talking. I'm going to put a bit of pressure FC to talk, since he has been acting pretty wolfy as of late, as detailed by others.

I like the sentiment for the first sentence. The problem I have is that the target he chose to talk was someone who had already soft-claimed (and I will admit, it's soft enough that I don't personally have a "Oh! He's the X!" idea in my head) and was the other leading wagon from the day before. Seems kind of counter-intuitive. There are plenty of people who I would like to see talk. Several people haven't posted, or have posted once or twice. This seems like an easy vote that's made to look sensible. At the same time, this seems consistent with behavior I've seen from Town!Puppies.

Elodin's being pretty darn suspicious that wagon doesn't seem to need my help (and I can, and probably will, change my vote later), so as my second choice:

This seems a tad odd to me, because at the point Kish made their vote, I believe (could be wrong, have not checked every timestamp) they tied the wagons between Elodin and Fleeing Coward. I agree that the Elodin wagon has been fast and furious, but it seems a bit odd to jump on the FC wagon. The post is also an hour after Puppies, so it seems very wishy-washy to just follow the person in front of you (yes, I know McGinty has a post between) without providing reasoning beyond "I agree with them."

Now, while these posts are odd to me, they aren't necessarily indicative of wolf behavior.

The person I most want to hear more from is...

...as it turns out, a lot of people. Looking over the players list, it's difficult to find names of people who have actually posted enough to form a read on. I started this post with the intent to vote for norman, but the more I looked at him, the more I realized his biggest crime is looking wishy-washy. And frankly, with that amount of inactivity, I can hardly blame him for that.

Lex-Kat, that vote seems deliberately unhelpful. You threw a vote on the leading wagon with no reasoning other than "because I always do." That is not wolf-finding behavior.

[BasketOfPuppies]

Libro



FC was one of the competing wagons, so I unbalanced them to push him in the lead and leave Elodin some breathing space, so as to see what would happen.

So you get poked for not explaining your vote and decide to follow it by immediately doing the same thing?

I'm at work rn, so posting will be limited today.

[norman250]

Libro



FC was one of the competing wagons, so I unbalanced them to push him in the lead and leave Elodin some breathing space, so as to see what would happen.

Noted.

And, I am sorry if I'm coming across as wishy-washy, I just honestly don't have much to go on personally. I don't want to go for FC, because of their claim, and I'm not certain Elodin is a wolf. As you point out, there's only a few genuinely active players, and I can't tell if they're town or just hiding in plain sight.

[Eggel]

Well, I trust FC, for reasons I would not like to reveal but will if forced to, and Norman seemed a little too happy to lynch me.

I see this as mildly suspicious. I have a feeling this might be an attempt to avoid role claiming seer, but with this being an all power role game, I'm not so sure. Finger of mild suspicion still pointed at Elodin.

So you get poked for not explaining your vote and decide to follow it by immediately doing the same thing?

Murska, care to explain your vote for Libro?

[Ramsus]

Is there some reason we're ignoring Lex claim FC is a wolf?

[Kish]

I put the second vote on Fleeing Coward yesterday, randomly, as I said. Elodin had, I believe, three votes at the time. It didn't tie them, nor would I have cast that vote if it had (I would have picked someone with 0 or 1 votes to vote for, had that not accurately described FC). Also highlighting: Lex-Kat just said that she knows that Fleeing Coward is a duck. Is there a reason not to kill Fleeing Coward today, and kill Lex-Kat tomorrow if it turns out FC is a hunter?

[Pelican]

Is there some reason we're ignoring Lex claim FC is a wolf?

White text mostly.

I have it on good authority (myself, actually), that Fleeing Coward is evil.
(This is not a Seer claim. This is a Pixie vs. Chicken claim. :p )

Town read on Eggel for his last post. I don't see a reason for wolves to point out a potential soft claim like that for everyone who missed it, I do see a potential for town to do that (though I believe it may be detrimental to our game)

I think there's a decent argument against Black Socks. The last post McGinty quoted especially, that's the kind of thing I can see a wolf trying to pull (let's intentionally leave FC alive because he'll be an easy lynch tomorrow, we can even point out that it's weird the wolves didn't target him!).

Still curious about Fortuna (and thematthew), but I'd rather follow someone's decent argument than throw my vote away on a vague hunch.