Resolving a conflict between NPC groups

[Pinjata]

Het guys,

After some meddling of my PCs, the main figure, that held together major mercenary group (poorly disciplined, ragtag "mercenaries") is in dissaray. A rather violent, dissaray, to be more precise.

Group was held together by an old bugbear, who got killed in his outpost and now the following groups are at their throats:
Bugbears (about 10)
Hobgoblins (about 10)
Goblins (three groups, about 12 goblins each, bonded together by a weak alliance. Goblins and alliances...)
Human warriors (about a dozen, no real leader)
A few independent more proficient warriors who work alone, but have joined the group under now dead bugbear.

So, conflict is to follow. Its to take place in a small ruined castle and an adjacent ruined village.

Who would be contesters? Who would just leave? Who would come on top? What would the casualties be?

I don't see bugbears taking on goblins due to number disatvantage, but I can see hobgoblins trying to enforce their might and fail. Perhaps humans would just leave? None of more independant, competent warriors wants to lead. Only creatures with leadership aspirations are among bugbears, hobgoblins and goblin trio. These guys really want power and the benefits that good raiding outpost offers.

Thanks

[zlefin]

even amongst criminals, there are social customs and standards; too much dying off is risky and can leave you vulnerable to other groups. so while some death would be expected, it should be fairly light. I'd guess around 1-4 deaths, and a bunch more injuries; with also 10-20 or so people leaving (either cuase they were in a faction tha tleaves, or because they were a leader of a faction, and thus felt it safer to leave than stick around).

[Jay R]

This should be decided based on the personalities involved, and we don't know those. One possibility is that the bugbear leader might try to get the goblins on her side, because she got along well with the goblin leader.

With a different leader, the bugbears might hide in the woods, and wait until all the others finish fighting.

A third bugbear leader might try to hire the human mercenaries.

This kind of interaction is very strongly personality-driven, which is why you need to have some idea of the personalities of (at least) the leaders of each group.