"Chinese new Artificial Sun"

[Cikomyr]

So I saw these news article about China testing out a new fusion reactor next January.. Ish?

Is there a chance this thing really achieves fusion power closer to being economical? Or it's just a fake science news meant to drive traffic?

[factotum]

You might want to link to said articles? Did a search and the stuff I found was all months old, and nowhere did it imply that they'd managed to achieve greater power input than put in, merely that they'd managed to get to a temperature of 100 million celsius (which is a level at which hydrogen fusion could happen).

[Yora]

There are many "working" fusion reactors around the world today. They are just too complex and inefficient and consume much more more energy to start a fusion reaction than the fusion releases. Those are research reactors to study what exactly happens during the fusion, to get more data and figure out how to make better reactors.
That's almost certainly what the Chinese are doing.

The only reactor in construction that I know about, that is expected to produce energy, is the ITER in France, and that's a giant project that already has taken decades of development, is still in construction, and I think is planned to reach the magic threshold of positive output in 2035. You don't build something like that without the world noticing decades before completion.

[halfeye]

You don't build something like that without the world noticing decades before completion.

Not unless it's a secret. I don't think North Korea is capable, and the USA would probably guess if they tried, but there have been some pretty big secrets.

[veti]

Not unless it's a secret. I don't think North Korea is capable, and the USA would probably guess if they tried, but there have been some pretty big secrets.

North Korea is not a rich country. Its GDP is dwarfed by some hundreds of western cities, never mind whole countries. If they could do it, that would imply it's about two orders of magnitude easier than we thought.

Also, I don't know what the point would be of keeping it secret. I rather think anyone who could pull it off would want to strut and brag somewhat.

[Cikomyr]

You might want to link to said articles? Did a search and the stuff I found was all months old, and nowhere did it imply that they'd managed to achieve greater power input than put in, merely that they'd managed to get to a temperature of 100 million celsius (which is a level at which hydrogen fusion could happen).

This one here sir.

liiiiink

[factotum]

This one here sir.

liiiiink

OK, I think the most significant part of that article is this:

China's HL-2M tokamak might be the device that's finally up to that challenge - or at least yields the clues needed to overcome it.

"HL-2M will provide researchers with valuable data on the compatibility of high-performance fusion plasmas with approaches to more effectively handle the heat and particles exhausted from the core of the device,"


It's another research reactor. I don't think any of the scientists behind it are claiming it will be the holy grail that will provide more power than it consumes, just that it's another step along the road to that.

[Cikomyr]

Btw, while researching fusion news for this year, I stumbled on the fact that the US Navy patented Compact Fusion Reactors.

Is there any meaning to this?

[druid91]

North Korea is not a rich country. Its GDP is dwarfed by some hundreds of western cities, never mind whole countries. If they could do it, that would imply it's about two orders of magnitude easier than we thought.

Also, I don't know what the point would be of keeping it secret. I rather think anyone who could pull it off would want to strut and brag somewhat.

Wealth isn't so much relevant as resources and knowledge. as I understand it, between the two of them, South Korea got all the good farmland and the coasts, and North Korea got all the mining and mineral wealth of Korea.

The fact that they lack dollars isn't really all that important when they can just rip the materials they need out of the ground themselves.

[Cikomyr]

Wealth isn't so much relevant as resources and knowledge. as I understand it, between the two of them, South Korea got all the good farmland and the coasts, and North Korea got all the mining and mineral wealth of Korea.

The fact that they lack dollars isn't really all that important when they can just rip the materials they need out of the ground themselves.

You need energy and labor to extract these resources from the ground, not to forget substantial capital needed to get the tools needed to do just this. You can either develop a whole economic industry around developing these tools, or you buy them outright with your pure liquid wealth.

Same thing for the energy. You either buy it or you spend a ludicrous amount of your nation economic development to secure its own source of energy, all of which needs capital, resources and labor of its own.

Now think how much excess Manpower and resource your nation has after taking care of its own basic needs, like food, shelter, warmth. Add what you already invest in raw materials and manufacturing to outfit your army..

There's s just not much leftover for nuclear programs.

[HandofShadows]

It's another research reactor. I don't think any of the scientists behind it are claiming it will be the holy grail that will provide more power than it consumes, just that it's another step along the road to that.

The road to practical fusion power is unfortunately very long a great many steps are required. I do hope we get it soon. There are so many problems such a technology could help solve, even if it will be highly disruptive to some areas of the world.

And could we not talk about North Korea please? That's something that can get political really fast.

[Yora]

I am in my 30s now, and I expect to see the first commercial fusion power plant in my lifetime.

Though I don't expect to see the full effects it will have on the way we think of economy and labor. But then, these things sometimes happen surprisingly quick, so I won't rule that out.

[Cikomyr]

The road to practical fusion power is unfortunately very long a great many steps are required. I do hope we get it soon. There are so many problems such a technology could help solve, even if it will be highly disruptive to some areas of the world.

I heard we are 30 years away from developing fusion power?

[halfeye]

I heard we are 30 years away from developing fusion power?

I heard we were 50 years away, in the 1980s. It's a guess, and it's really not reliable except in the sense: "at the very least X years away from developing fusiion power".

[Cikomyr]

I heard we were 50 years away, in the 1980s. It's a guess, and it's really not reliable except in the sense: "at the very least X years away from developing fusiion power".

I know, that's my joke. "We have been 30 years away from having fusion power for 50 years now"

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Btw, while researching fusion news for this year, I stumbled on the fact that the US Navy patented Compact Fusion Reactors.

Is there any meaning to this?

Isn't that the same Lockheed-Martin Skunkworks reactor that we discussed way back in 2015? IIRC, at the time, Lockheed Martin promised results in 5 years' time, so they have one more year to produce something before their declaration can be tossed in the PR bin with all other promises of functional fusion.

Grey Wolf

[Keltest]

Isn't that the same Lockheed-Martin Skunkworks reactor that we discussed way back in 2015? IIRC, at the time, Lockheed Martin promised results in 5 years' time, so they have one more year to produce something before their declaration can be tossed in the PR bin with all other promises of functional fusion.

Grey Wolf

I think its quite optimistic of you to hold off even that long.

[veti]

Btw, while researching fusion news for this year, I stumbled on the fact that the US Navy patented Compact Fusion Reactors.

Is there any meaning to this?

Well, in general patents mean that a company is reasonably serious about something. The patent has a limited lifespan, meaning that if it takes more than 20 years to deliver a commercial technology, the patent is worthless because it will expire by then. And it takes a fair bit of work to file one.

However, with the US Navy, such basic commercial logic probably doesn't apply. The cost of filing a patent is not so great that the navy would actually notice it, and it might well be part of some internal politicking or posturing that we're not privy to.

So yes, I'm sure it means something. But it's probably not possible to tell what.

[Spore]

My last information is that cooling a fusion reactor is the greatest difficulty so far, to a point where the excess heat does not damage the machine AND consumes less energy than it provides.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

I think its quite optimistic of you to hold off even that long.

From anyone else, I'd have assumed PR noise immediately, but skunkworks has delivered on big claims in the past. Admittedly, more in the "fly and shoot" engineering than in the "meld atoms together to boil water" engineering, but still.

Grey Wolf

[Cikomyr]

Isn't that the same Lockheed-Martin Skunkworks reactor that we discussed way back in 2015? IIRC, at the time, Lockheed Martin promised results in 5 years' time, so they have one more year to produce something before their declaration can be tossed in the PR bin with all other promises of functional fusion.

Grey Wolf

As far as I know, they announced last year they have given up on the compact design they were hoping to achieve and are instead working on larger prototypes.

However, they have not abandoned their research, and are still aggressively working through iterations with a milestone achieved for each

Take that as you will. I still like the idea that a megacorp like Lockheed is willing to throw money at this project. I don't care if it means they'll rival Disney as a world-encompassing megacorp.

[Yora]

My last information is that cooling a fusion reactor is the greatest difficulty so far, to a point where the excess heat does not damage the machine AND consumes less energy than it provides.

In an indirect way, yes. But not really.

Fusion happens under extreme pressures and temperatures. Since we can't replicate the pressures inside the sun even with massive machines, fusion reactors instead go with very low pressures and absolutely ludicrous temperatures.
As I understand it, the problem is not so much the hot fusion fuel damaging the reactor, but the reactor walls conducting heat away from the fuel, lowering the temperature below the minimum that is required for fusion at such low pressures.
The solution for this is to not have the fuel touch the walls of the reactor at all. Since hydrogen at these temperatures becomes plasma and loses its electrons, the hydrogen atoms become positively charged. This makes it possible to push the, away from the walls with very powerful electromagnets. And these electromagnets consume huge amounts of power. All the power that the reactor can produce, plus additional power from another source.

Finding ways to get a sufficient magnetic field with less power is the big challenge of fusion reactors, as I understand it. One approach is to scale up the whole reactor a lot, to get better efficiency. That's one of the hopes behind ITER, which is just massive.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

In an indirect way, yes. But not really.

Fusion happens under extreme pressures and temperatures. Since we can't replicate the pressures inside the sun even with massive machines, fusion reactors instead go with very low pressures and absolutely ludicrous temperatures.
As I understand it, the problem is not so much the hot fusion fuel damaging the reactor, but the reactor walls conducting heat away from the fuel, lowering the temperature below the minimum that is required for fusion at such low pressures.
The solution for this is to not have the fuel touch the walls of the reactor at all. Since hydrogen at these temperatures becomes plasma and loses its electrons, the hydrogen atoms become positively charged. This makes it possible to push the, away from the walls with very powerful electromagnets. And these electromagnets consume huge amounts of power. All the power that the reactor can produce, plus additional power from another source.

Finding ways to get a sufficient magnetic field with less power is the big challenge of fusion reactors, as I understand it. One approach is to scale up the whole reactor a lot, to get better efficiency. That's one of the hopes behind ITER, which is just massive.

Alternatively, we also have achieved fusion at room temperature. But generating the muons necessary takes about twice the energy you output from the process.



As far as I know, no-one is attempting to improve on this approach, though.

Grey Wolf

[Cikomyr]

How about in 0-g and a vacuum? Wouldn't that prevent any convection of heat?

[Knaight]

How about in 0-g and a vacuum? Wouldn't that prevent any convection of heat?

It would also tear itself apart - a lot of gravity is necessary to hold it together, and while you can get by with pressure instead that precludes a vaccuum. Going with ridiculously high temperatures in a vaccum meanwhile runs into radiation scaling with T^4 instead of the ΔT seen in convection and conduction, which runs into the same heat loss issues.

[William M. Pail]

Wealth isn't so much relevant as resources and knowledge. as I understand it, between the two of them, South Korea got all the good farmland and the coasts, and North Korea got all the mining and mineral wealth of Korea.

The fact that they lack dollars isn't really all that important when they can just rip the materials they need out of the ground themselves.

Well said,if the two countries unite, it may become a rich and powerful country.

[Rakaydos]

Alternatively, we also have achieved fusion at room temperature. But generating the muons necessary takes about twice the energy you output from the process.



As far as I know, no-one is attempting to improve on this approach, though.

Grey Wolf

That's like saying nobody is trying to improve the magnet on a stick travel method. If it mathematically cannot break even, there's no point in trying.