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  1. - Top - End - #811
    Firbolg in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Xyril View Post
    .. transparency ..
    I don't ask for sources, and I rarely give them, because I do not care.

    I try to be polite, and I never make personal attacks. That's all I ask of others. I'm by no means some paragon of virtue, but at least I don't have a double standard (which isn't putting the bar very high, I admit).

    People ask for sources not because they're interested, but because they think - or hope - I get my info from some outrageous source. Like some wildly biased propaganda site. But I don't, my info is the danish state, or the press (which gets it's info from the danish state).

    And no one ever asks for clarification. But since you did, I'll clarify - though it's deplorably simple:

    We have ample confirmation that the original, stricter restrictions were adequate (there's a caveat to that, though - later). So if I were calling the shots, I'd have employees at hospitals and retirement homes be under those stricter requirements, and have everyone not in contact with risk groups with less severe restrictions. There's proof of both approaches: The original strict guidelines worked well, and even now that society is largely open again, we're still not seeing an uptick in infection pressure.

    I'd propably have the state pay for all groceries bought online for everyone in the strictly regulated group. I'd propably test regularly. And I might well require everyone - both staff and patients - to wear masks. They don't, mind you. I was hospitalised for four days in early june, when my girlfriend gave birth. No masks.

    Now, for the caveat: No system that involves human beings is ever perfect. The major outbreaks in Denmark have all been in retirement homes. That's a clear weakness in my plan. Not enough to derail it, but something to be aware of - maybe even necessitate a gentle warning that if you fail to live up to your responsibility, you will be ... what's the word, when you can get sued and/or fired?

    If you want a higher resolution plan than that, I can't supply. I work in sales, not crisis management. So it's conceptual, not an action plan of action.

  2. - Top - End - #812
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Dec 2010

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post

    People ask for sources not because they're interested, but because they think - or hope - I get my info from some outrageous source. Like some wildly biased propaganda site. But I don't, my info is the danish state, or the press (which gets it's info from the danish state).
    Or because you say something that we have good reason to suspect to be false because of our own sources and research, and we're giving you the benefit of the doubt that maybe we're wrong (but it will take more than just you saying so, and so we're establishing a standard of evidence to be convinced) or that you might be using a source that's incorrect or might have misinterpreted what a source said or drawn a conclusion that doesn't follow or other such things.

    For example, a few pages ago you said "Last week we have had zero dead, and one new case. " This was factually incorrect. There was a reason why it was incorrect, and the way we resolved it was by looking into sources. And in the end, when you looked directly at the Danish state numbers rather than the media article you had seen, you agreed that there were in fact more than one new case in that week.

    The alternative of asking for a source is to just outright accuse you of being wrong or worse. Asking for sources is asking for the discussion to be about facts and not you personally. When you say things like "My track record is spotless. My information is correct. I'm drawing no mistaken conclusions from it." that makes the discussion about you instead, which is what you're saying you don't want to happen here.

    That's why we look into sources, because it lets us discuss facts rather than reputations or whether we like eachothers' stances. The alternative mode of discourse is worse.

  3. - Top - End - #813
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    DrowGirl

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    Mar 2016

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Forum Explorer View Post
    Very true, but New Zealand's total infections is also pretty tiny.
    It's a small country. Its infections per million people is higher than South Korea's

  4. - Top - End - #814
    Troll in the Playground
     
    Kobold

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    May 2009

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Liquor Box View Post
    It's a small country. Its infections per million people is higher than South Korea's
    South Korea was the original poster child for the success of the "test, trace, isolate" strategy that basically everyone claims to want to emulate. They got it right from the start, as they did with SARS. To do better than them is a very high bar of expectation.

    New Zealand got through its lockdown, and yes there are economic effects from that - but they're nothing like as bad as the economic effects unfolding right now in other countries that didn't take such strong measures. I'm currently jobless, and likely to remain so for some time - and I still say that's a price 100% worth paying, to be rid of the virus.
    "None of us likes to be hated, none of us likes to be shunned. A natural result of these conditions is, that we consciously or unconsciously pay more attention to tuning our opinions to our neighbor’s pitch and preserving his approval than we do to examining the opinions searchingly and seeing to it that they are right and sound." - Mark Twain

  5. - Top - End - #815
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Forum Explorer's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Liquor Box View Post
    It's a small country. Its infections per million people is higher than South Korea's
    South Korea? That's the example you are going to go with?

    I mean, yes, you are correct. They have more infections per million people than South Korea. But South Korea also handled COVID-19 really well. To put that comparison into context, South Korea is at 149th out of 213 countries. New Zealand is at 141st out of 213. That's A) not a big difference, and more importantly B) really freaking good compared to the rest of the world.

    Mind you, I don't like cases per million person. Small nations get artificially high results by that statistic because it only takes a few cases for them to get a really high result. Or at least, I don't like taking that statistic without context.
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  6. - Top - End - #816
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Forum Explorer View Post
    New Zealand is at 141st out of 213. That's A) not a big difference, and more importantly B) really freaking good compared to the rest of the world.
    It should also be noted that their infection per million (309) is under the US deaths per million (418). (source)

    But yes, I too am confused how "they are not the absolute best in the world" is supposed to be some kind of counter to "they are doing very well"

    Quote Originally Posted by Forum Explorer View Post
    Small nations get artificially high results by that statistic because it only takes a few cases for them to get a really high result. Or at least, I don't like taking that statistic without context.
    It's still the best way to compare countries with wildly different sizes but otherwise similar economic development. Sure, it's funny that Vatican city has 15k cases per million... and 12 cases. But as long as you stick to countries with more than a million inhabitants, it is perfectly valid way to look at the data.

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    But really, the important lesson here is this: Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?
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  7. - Top - End - #817
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    DrowGirl

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Grey_Wolf_c View Post
    But yes, I too am confused how "they are not the absolute best in the world" is supposed to be some kind of counter to "they are doing very well"
    I'd be happy to enlighten you then. You see the original contention was not "they were doing very well". The original contention was:
    Quote Originally Posted by Forum Explorer View Post
    I have a hard time crediting New Zealand with suffering an outbreak at all considering how few people caught COVID-19 there.
    Given that we now know what the goalposts were, I can answer this question:

    Quote Originally Posted by Forum Explorer View Post
    South Korea? That's the example you are going to go with?
    Yes indeed, it is the answer I'm going with. Because you can't be the "poster child" (as veti called them) for handling an outbreak, unless you have an outbreak.

    But if we don't like the South Korea example, i think this post also addresses the point of whether NZ suffered an outbreak at all:
    Quote Originally Posted by Forum Explorer View Post
    I mean, yes, you are correct. They have more infections per million people than South Korea. But South Korea also handled COVID-19 really well. To put that comparison into context, South Korea is at 149th out of 213 countries. New Zealand is at 141st out of 213. That's A) not a big difference, and more importantly B) really freaking good compared to the rest of the world.
    141st out 213 is almost exactly at the 66th percentile. That is better than average but hardly "really freaking good". Really freaking good is probably 200th. Nor does it indicate no outbreak at all, unless half the countries in the world had not outbreak at all.

    Mind you, I don't like cases per million person. Small nations get artificially high results by that statistic because it only takes a few cases for them to get a really high result. Or at least, I don't like taking that statistic without context.
    You think total deaths/infections (the metric you used) is a better metric for comparing small countries with big countries than deaths/infections per million (the metric your are now disavowing)?

    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    New Zealand got through its lockdown, and yes there are economic effects from that - but they're nothing like as bad as the economic effects unfolding right now in other countries that didn't take such strong measures. I'm currently jobless, and likely to remain so for some time - and I still say that's a price 100% worth paying, to be rid of the virus.
    Really? How do you figure the economic effects on NZ were less severe than the effects on countries that did not lock down so strictly? How does NZ compare economically to (say) Norway?

    That's not the problem though. The problem is that if the virus gets reintroduced (and you'll be aware of all the quarantine issues) then NZ will be worse off than if it had not locked down. You will have paid the price of becoming unemployed, and the virus will be here again.

    I also point out that you are not necessarily the barometer for NZ. You may have a good enough safety net to survive a year or so without work. For some people that situation may be much worse.
    Last edited by Liquor Box; Today at 05:40 AM.

  8. - Top - End - #818
    Troll in the Playground
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    Mar 2010

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Cases per million is not a great metric in general because it depends entirely on the amount of testing. Deaths per million is a bit better since its less likely that people dying of some sort of respiratory issue is going to avoid notice for counting (that said people who die from something else while having COVID can be missed).

    A better indicator than both is probably percentage of positive tests compared to total tests. This can give a better indicator on how widespread the issue is. Now it can still be skewed based on testing strategy or if testing is no very uniform across the country but still seems to avoid some of the other misleading indicators from other metrics.

  9. - Top - End - #819
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Nov 2013

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Percentage is an good additional indicator for interpreting the results but it is still dependent on amount of testing because more testing compared to cases almost automatically means you will also test more less likely cases.

    Edit: But yeah cases is decent as trend indicator but not great for direct comparisions. Even in limited areas like NYC there can be much variance see this graph about death to cases correlation https://cms.prod.nypr.digital/images.../fill-634x475/ (from the article I posted last page https://gothamist.com/news/coronavir...demic-new-york) . Well NYC is rather big so limited might be the wrong word. Edit: https://covidinteractivesny.s3.us-ea...onfirmed-cases interactive version the high outlier is apparently because the population of the place gets under counted
    Last edited by Ibrinar; Today at 06:29 AM.

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