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  1. - Top - End - #691
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    Yeah, it's definitely not an open-and-shut case as to whether reopening was the cause of the spread.
    The US has seen an unparalleled increase in cases, even among other countries that have reopened. Having said that, more than one country has faced a renewed outbreak pretty much exactly 2 weeks after reopening.

    I think it's pretty much granted that reopenings will lead to a resurgence in cases. It could theoretically be avoided, but only with a measure of public cooperation and expert oversight that I don't think any country in the world can pull off. I'm pretty sure we're going to be fighting bush fires for a while, just hoping they don't turn into forest fires.
    Um, yes, agreed. I didn't mean to imply that you can reopen without seeing an increase in cases. Obviously, as we give the virus better living conditions, it will thrive better. But here in Denmark we've been pushing things quite a bit, and the rise in cases still fails to materialise.

    We're simply too cute, I think. We go along with the social distancing like good little soldiers. And I think that because we're individually careful, we're basically just fine. While the americans, like I said, seem to want to flaunt their disregard for the virus (not careful), and that yields the foreseeable result.

    Not that I know what's going on in the US, other than news media and chat forums =)

  2. - Top - End - #692
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    Yeah, it's definitely not an open-and-shut case as to whether reopening was the cause of the spread.
    The US has seen an unparalleled increase in cases, even among other countries that have reopened. Having said that, more than one country has faced a renewed outbreak pretty much exactly 2 weeks after reopening.
    The US has never really been closed though, a lot of the areas the spreading to are not reopning as they never shut. And shouldn't be taken as an aggregate. From the numbers presented basically the places that did lockdowns have vastly cut down the "daily new cases" number, whereas those same numbers are shooting up in more rural and other never closed areas and states. The latter ones aren't always in absolute numbers however as a place like California could have the entire population of Montana (randomy chosen state) of cases and still look reasonable in comparison to other countries.

    For the US as a whole I'd probably compare to the EU as a whole as we then get a similar patchwork of measures taken. But even then there's a lot stuff going into it.


    Besides, that cases increase after lockdowns are relaxed is not a bug, it's a feature. It's how it is planned and expected. We aren't trying to stop the virus, we are trying to ensure the pressure on the healthcare system remains reasonable, and as far as posisble protect those we know likely just won't survive getting it. And hoping we'll get a viable vaccine so we have an alternative to "everyone has to catch it to find out if it was mild or not".

  3. - Top - End - #693
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    It's a simple enough question: are people and health authorities aware of (near enough) all the cases, or are there still significant numbers of people wandering about your community who have the disease and aren't aware of it?

    If the former, then you can reopen reasonably safely. Sorting people into definitive categories of (healthy/not-healthy) is the main purpose of a lockdown. Once that's done, you know what you need to know in order to keep the two groups apart, and then it's feasible to trace and contain any breaches before they get out of hand. But if your lockdown failed to accomplish that end - for whatever reason - then it's not safe to relax it.
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  4. - Top - End - #694
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    It's a simple enough question: are people and health authorities aware of (near enough) all the cases, or are there still significant numbers of people wandering about your community who have the disease and aren't aware of it?
    There is another possibility: That enough have had it without realising it that immunity is now ... not widespread, but still enough of a thing to somewhat limit the spread of the virus. I think I saw a news bit about a tourist party that were all checked for antibodies. 35% had them. None had been sick.

    Not saying you can simply extrapolate from that and conclude a third of the population is now immune. But it's still something to consider.

  5. - Top - End - #695
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    There is another possibility: That enough have had it without realising it that immunity is now ... not widespread, but still enough of a thing to somewhat limit the spread of the virus. I think I saw a news bit about a tourist party that were all checked for antibodies. 35% had them. None had been sick.

    Not saying you can simply extrapolate from that and conclude a third of the population is now immune. But it's still something to consider.
    They've been testing that a bit and the Swedish reports I've heard are depressingly low. But it may also depend on what kind of test you do. There was something about a standard antibody test maybe not hitting right in identifying it. And that you may ahve gained immunity through exposure even though the standard easy test didn't catch it.

  6. - Top - End - #696
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by snowblizz View Post
    They've been testing that a bit and the Swedish reports I've heard are depressingly low. But it may also depend on what kind of test you do. There was something about a standard antibody test maybe not hitting right in identifying it. And that you may ahve gained immunity through exposure even though the standard easy test didn't catch it.
    My understanding is the antibodies seem to be dropping fairly quickly, especially among those who were asymptomatic.

    There are two possible paths to take with this information: the first is that antibodies for this disease are the primary source of immunity (if there is immunity at all). If that's the case, antibody testing will catch the people who are genuinely immune, and there are few of them. Even worse, immunity would seem to be short-lived, making herd immunity through natural spread pretty much impossible.

    The second is that antibodies aren't responsible for immunity to COVID, and other parts of your immune system are. In that case, immunity should be longer-lasting, and rates of immunity are probably higher than positive test results would suggest, since people whose antibodies have dropped below detectable levels would still have immunity.
    Last edited by Strigon; 2020-06-29 at 01:07 PM.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

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  7. - Top - End - #697
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by snowblizz View Post
    They've been testing that a bit and the Swedish reports I've heard are depressingly low. But it may also depend on what kind of test you do. There was something about a standard antibody test maybe not hitting right in identifying it. And that you may ahve gained immunity through exposure even though the standard easy test didn't catch it.
    Yea, the Swedish aren't doing so hot. Thing is, there have been reports of specific groups with very high percentage having antibodies. Like ... 'this group of young tourists all have antibodies, and barely anyone ever had symptoms'. That sort of thing.

    Meanwhile, we frankly cannot seem to increase the infection pressure. And there doesn't seem to be any explanation. That's why I was fishing for a hidden immunity, or some such.

  8. - Top - End - #698
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Something about this was on the morning news I was watching again. I swear they talked about T-cells but that sounds like Resident Evil to me.


    Based on the relatively lenient Swedish lockdown and the large number of deaths/cases there should be more immunity, but it doens't seem to show up on antibody tests. If I get gist of the problem.

  9. - Top - End - #699
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by snowblizz View Post
    Something about this was on the morning news I was watching again. I swear they talked about T-cells but that sounds like Resident Evil to me.


    Based on the relatively lenient Swedish lockdown and the large number of deaths/cases there should be more immunity, but it doens't seem to show up on antibody tests. If I get gist of the problem.
    Yea, from what I hear, at least one type of anti-body test was decidedly unhelpful. I could swear I read somewhere that the 'accuracy' of the test was like .... 20%.

  10. - Top - End - #700
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    So as I understand the immune response, there's two major pathways for how it deals with an infection. One is to directly kill foreign/infected cells (via so-called killer T-cells), and the other is to basically bind foreign materials with sticky stuff so they can't interact with the body and can be targetted/flushed out (the antibody response). The memory mechanisms of these two paths are also a little different.

    The antibody/B-cell pathway basically works by having a population of cells that replicates rapidly in response to finding something they bind to, which pump out antibodies, and which dedicate some small fraction of the cells to a resident pool of 'memory' cells that stick around for decades. Then when you get infected again, the initial population of cells that respond to the infection is higher, meaning that the ramp-up time for your immune response decreases by several days - and taking into account the exponential growth of something like a virus in your body, that's the difference between getting sick or wiping the thing out before you notice it. For example, influenza has an initial doubling time of something like 45 minutes in the body (which slows down as the virus saturates your body), so if your immune system is just one day faster, that's something like a factor of 4 billion fewer virus particles that get produced by the time you have a strong response. With Covid I don't know the doubling time within the body but it's presumably ~3 times longer since the incubation period of Covid is about ~3 times longer than flu - meaning that a day speedup would correspond to only roughly a factor of one thousand reduction - but still a big reduction though.

    I'm less familiar with how T-cell memory works and scales, but overall it seems a lot of the same patterns occur (first it encounters something it binds to, then it has to be activated to make sure it doesn't bind to self, then it either goes around doing things or becomes a latent memory cell so that there's a larger initial population if the same antigen re-occurs). But it wouldn't show up on an antibody screening. I'm not actually sure that if you were down to only memory B-cells and didn't have plasma B-cells (the ones pumping out antibody) it'd show up on antibody screening either though.

  11. - Top - End - #701
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    This is going to sound like a dumb question, because it probably is, but I'm curious. Is there a survivable blood alcohol content that could be maintained to protect against the virus?
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  12. - Top - End - #702
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Eagle View Post
    This is going to sound like a dumb question, because it probably is, but I'm curious. Is there a survivable blood alcohol content that could be maintained to protect against the virus?
    Going out on a limb here, I'd say no. To the best of my knowledge, alcoholics around the world get sick more often, not less, than the rest of us.

  13. - Top - End - #703
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Eagle View Post
    This is going to sound like a dumb question, because it probably is, but I'm curious. Is there a survivable blood alcohol content that could be maintained to protect against the virus?
    It is, and and no.

    The fun thing is, the sanitizing handrub alcohol put out everywhere isn't even that effective (I was told). I heard it'd be better if we carefully washed our hands with soap (those 30 second songs and whatnot), but that's not as practical. So we go with the handrub as it helps a lot and is quick.

    From a more general perspective, AFAIK, viruses aren't really considered "alive" even in the way bacteria are. This means that broadly speaking viruses are going to be hardier than bacteria to kill. What is about as hardy as bacteria however, are the cells in your body. Or in other words to get enough alcohol in you to kill even bacteria and you are already past the limit your own cells can tolerate. And probably have ways to go before even inconveniencing viruses.

    This also ties into why digesting cleaning products are equally a bad idea. They are meant to destroy organic substances, this includes you.

    It is also no coincidence that viruses and bacteria tend to attack our respiratory systems as they are much more vulnerable than other vectors (excepting getting a free pass into the bloodsystem, eg via wounds). Our digestive system eg has evolved to be rather harsh towards anyhting that goes into it.

    That said I don't exactly know what biochemical process exactly it is where alcohol destroys viruses and bacteria. I'm just about 110% certain that before these simple structures suffer our more compelx body has taken way more catastrophic damage.

  14. - Top - End - #704
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    I can't help but wonder if this would be a good time to install pedal-activated sinks in public places. I mean, outside of bathrooms. Like in a school or hospital corridor, or even attached to walls on the streets.

    There's been much talk about something similar in hospitals and how good it would be, even before the pandemic.
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  15. - Top - End - #705
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Vinyadan View Post
    I can't help but wonder if this would be a good time to install pedal-activated sinks in public places. I mean, outside of bathrooms. Like in a school or hospital corridor, or even attached to walls on the streets.

    There's been much talk about something similar in hospitals and how good it would be, even before the pandemic.
    There are already faucets that are activated by..-err...infrared? or whatever, you wave your hands under and it turns on. Mind, I'll admit half the time it feels like they don't work very well. Thoguh the one my friend got does, and public ones seem not to so, I suspect there might be something there.

    I get the feeling though streets might be a tad optimistic. And I live in a place where social cohesion still exists. Hospitals one would expect something similar hands free would exist already.

  16. - Top - End - #706
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    Going out on a limb here, I'd say no. To the best of my knowledge, alcoholics around the world get sick more often, not less, than the rest of us.
    Quote Originally Posted by snowblizz View Post
    It is, and and no.

    The fun thing is, the sanitizing handrub alcohol put out everywhere isn't even that effective (I was told). I heard it'd be better if we carefully washed our hands with soap (those 30 second songs and whatnot), but that's not as practical. So we go with the handrub as it helps a lot and is quick.

    From a more general perspective, AFAIK, viruses aren't really considered "alive" even in the way bacteria are. This means that broadly speaking viruses are going to be hardier than bacteria to kill. What is about as hardy as bacteria however, are the cells in your body. Or in other words to get enough alcohol in you to kill even bacteria and you are already past the limit your own cells can tolerate. And probably have ways to go before even inconveniencing viruses.

    This also ties into why digesting cleaning products are equally a bad idea. They are meant to destroy organic substances, this includes you.

    It is also no coincidence that viruses and bacteria tend to attack our respiratory systems as they are much more vulnerable than other vectors (excepting getting a free pass into the bloodsystem, eg via wounds). Our digestive system eg has evolved to be rather harsh towards anyhting that goes into it.

    That said I don't exactly know what biochemical process exactly it is where alcohol destroys viruses and bacteria. I'm just about 110% certain that before these simple structures suffer our more compelx body has taken way more catastrophic damage.
    My thought was less the hand sanitizer reason, and more the chemotherapy reason, reasoning that it wasn't impossible you could consume enough alcohol to destroy the virus without killing yourself.

    I thought it was a dumb question, but thought I might as well ask somewhere that would give me a serious answer rather than settle this curiosity with people who would joke about it.
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  17. - Top - End - #707
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Eagle View Post
    My thought was less the hand sanitizer reason, and more the chemotherapy reason, reasoning that it wasn't impossible you could consume enough alcohol to destroy the virus without killing yourself.

    I thought it was a dumb question, but thought I might as well ask somewhere that would give me a serious answer rather than settle this curiosity with people who would joke about it.
    As a rule of thumb, anything not produced by your body specifically to kill the virus (and potentially, even things that are) will have at the very least potential to deal as much damage to you as the virus. Its really, really difficult to be selective about stuff like that at this scale, and typically when we engage in something like it (ie chemotherapy) its with the hope that your body's ability to repair itself is greater than the threat's ability to spread.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Eagle View Post
    My thought was less the hand sanitizer reason, and more the chemotherapy reason, reasoning that it wasn't impossible you could consume enough alcohol to destroy the virus without killing yourself.

    I thought it was a dumb question, but thought I might as well ask somewhere that would give me a serious answer rather than settle this curiosity with people who would joke about it.
    The thing is, chemotherapy fights cancer. Cancer is your own cells. It is precisely delivered poison, and the hope is that it hits the cancer cells harder than it hits your body. It's only used when your body can't cope with the cancer anymore, because typically the net effect of destroying your immune system as well as whatever's making you sick is a win for your infection. The human immune system is very impressive, and anything that inhibits its effectiveness is usually a last-ditch effort. Chemotherapy is the nuclear option, essentially.
    Antibiotics, antifungals, and antivirals are all basically more targeted chemotherapy; instead of being toxic to you, they're toxic to whatever is infecting you. This is obviously preferable to something that is toxic to both you and your infection.

    Alcohol would be a sort of chemotherapy if it could be used, but it can't. First, this is because (I believe) alcohol tends to concentrate more in some areas of the body than others. In order to sterilize your lungs, for example, you'd have to trash your liver.
    Secondly, and more importantly, alcohol has toxic effects on your body as a whole long before it has sterilizing effects on individual cells or microbes. The typical advice from doctors is that alcohol-based hand sanitizer should be above 60% alcohol - some say higher. This page suggests that BAC of only 0.5% is potentially lethal. Not because it destroys your cells directly, but because it suppresses vital functions in your body as a whole.

    Unfortunately, even if this could work like chemo, we wouldn't want to use it for this virus. As I mentioned, chemo is the nuclear option. It's very rough on your body. This virus, in comparison? Not that bad. Most people who would need treatment that aggressive would be unlikely to survive it, unless I'm mistaken.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

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  19. - Top - End - #709
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    The thing is, chemotherapy fights cancer. Cancer is your own cells. It is precisely delivered poison, and the hope is that it hits the cancer cells harder than it hits your body.
    Specifically, chemotherapy targets cells when they divide to create new cells and kills them at that point. Most cells in your body don't divide very often, so there's a good chance this hits the cancerous cells. The cells in your body that *do* tend to divide rapidly even under normal circumstances are in hair follicles and your gut, which is why common side-effects of chemo are baldness and nausea.
    Last edited by factotum; 2020-06-30 at 11:05 AM.

  20. - Top - End - #710
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Eagle View Post
    My thought was less the hand sanitizer reason, and more the chemotherapy reason, reasoning that it wasn't impossible you could consume enough alcohol to destroy the virus without killing yourself.

    I thought it was a dumb question, but thought I might as well ask somewhere that would give me a serious answer rather than settle this curiosity with people who would joke about it.
    It's not a dumb question. But my somewhat limited knowledge of alcoholism tells me that alcohol does more damage to the immune system than it does to infections. If you scale that up, you harm your bodies defences faster than you harm the infection - and eventually your liver gives up, and you die.

    But if we had some sort of clever drug that worked opposite - doing more damage to infection and less to your body and immune system - then that might work. Which is kinda the case for chemo. I think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinyadan View Post
    I can't help but wonder if this would be a good time to install pedal-activated sinks in public places. I mean, outside of bathrooms. Like in a school or hospital corridor, or even attached to walls on the streets.
    Corridors, fine. Streets, not so much. They'd be a maintenance nightmare, needing to be cleaned several times a day if they weren't to rapidly become reservoirs of all kinds of exciting infection.

    Having said that, it might make sense for some shops to have them at the entrance, the way they now have hand sanitiser. The cleaning duty would then fall to the shop staff, which would work OK for places like supermarkets that have plenty of employees whose jobs can be pretty... varied.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Some people aren't taking the coronavirus and pandemic seriously. They all think is a hoax and the coronavirus is just the flu. If what these people think then explain why my friend's mother died from the coronavirus? Not so fake now huh?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    Some people aren't taking the coronavirus and pandemic seriously. They all think is a hoax and the coronavirus is just the flu. If what these people think then explain why my friend's mother died from the coronavirus? Not so fake now huh?
    People die from the flu. My mom did, just last year. The difference is in how it spreads, not whether it kills or not.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    Some people aren't taking the coronavirus and pandemic seriously. They all think is a hoax and the coronavirus is just the flu. If what these people think then explain why my friend's mother died from the coronavirus? Not so fake now huh?
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    The problem is that saying "it's the flu" is like saying "it's just a punch". There's a huge variety. Many punches are very displeasing, yet nothing to worry about, but a good number of punches are a big deal, and a few of them cause permanent damage or death.
    This is an exceptionally bad flu, very debilitating and, where countermeasures to its spread have been missing or ineffective, far more deadly than the other global flu pandemics of the recent past.

    EDIT: could PCs with infra-red facial recognition tell people their temperature and signal odd increases?
    Last edited by Vinyadan; 2020-07-03 at 09:17 AM.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    People die from the flu. My mom did, just last year. The difference is in how it spreads, not whether it kills or not.
    The difference is also the mortality rate, which according to a google search I just did, is 1.4% compared to the flu's 0.1%
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    The difference is also the mortality rate, which according to a google search I just did, is 1.4% compared to the flu's 0.1%
    At this point, i wouldnt trust any statistics about the mortality rate. There are so many caveats and "i dont knows" about, among other things, asymptomatic infections and whether its actually the virus or other existing issues actually responsible for the deaths that accurate information basically doesnt exist at the moment.

    Treat getting and/or spreading it like a bad thing. Respect that it has the potential to be dangerous, if not to you than to people around you. Even if people dont die, getting it still sucks, potentially long term. It doesnt need to be lethal to not want it to be around.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Keltest View Post
    At this point, i wouldnt trust any statistics about the mortality rate. There are so many caveats and "i dont knows" about, among other things, asymptomatic infections and whether its actually the virus or other existing issues actually responsible for the deaths that accurate information basically doesnt exist at the moment.
    I disagree; the more time passes, the more data we have, and the more accurate the predictions, models, and projections are likely to be. The data is gleaned globally, so even if some countries drop the ball, we can get a good aggregate from which to base models on.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    I disagree; the more time passes, the more data we have, and the more accurate the predictions, models, and projections are likely to be. The data is gleaned globally, so even if some countries drop the ball, we can get a good aggregate from which to base models on.
    More data is better than less data, of course, but that doesnt mean we have an accurate picture yet. So far as im aware, we havent solved the issue of identifying asymptomatic cases particularly well, and until that changes a lot of the numbers are going to be somewhat poorly informed guesswork. The sites i look up say a lot about estimates and potentials and guesses, but very little about "We know X very close to certain."
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    The difference is also the mortality rate, which according to a google search I just did, is 1.4% compared to the flu's 0.1%
    Nah .. well, I'm no statistician, and I don't have all the numbers, and frankly no one does. I'll concede that overall, covid is slightly more deadly than the flu, but the mortality rate is not the point. It's how it spreads - it has a wonderful ability (seen from the POV of the virus itself) to infiltrate a population unseen. It's a stealth virus. That makes it dangerous.

    From the numbers I've seen, it's less dangerous than the flu to almost everyone - and then conversely much more dangerous to than the flu to a few, the elderly, those with cronic diseases, and so on. Last I heard, the numbers as they stand now, basically no one is really dying from it anymore. Meaning once we're prepared, and have manageable levels of infected, it's literally less dangerous than the flu.

    But I'm not an expert. I can't claim to know that with any confidence, I just follow the media and listen to experts. And I'm strictly non-alarmist, so I'm biased towards those who report positive figures, and against those who think we're all doomed and this is the end.

    My view as it stands today is that covid is a manageable disease. We don't need to die from it, we don't need to fear it, so long as we respect it. Look: Sweden did what I thought was the right thing, and they f***** it up. Denmark did what I consider an overreaction, but we're totally fine - we're more open now than Sweden was, or is, and we're still fine. Because we're good little soldiers, and we're respectful of the disease.

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