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  1. - Top - End - #841
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    Flumph

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Grey_Wolf_c View Post
    It's still the best way to compare countries with wildly different sizes but otherwise similar economic development. Sure, it's funny that Vatican city has 15k cases per million... and 12 cases. But as long as you stick to countries with more than a million inhabitants, it is perfectly valid way to look at the data.
    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-26 at 09:34 PM.

  2. - Top - End - #842
    Titan in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by sihnfahl View Post
    I dunno, a number of countries are playing it cautious. But, OTOH, they're also the countries that took the blasted thing seriously from day one. So they're willing to accept some short-term economic pain for safety.

    The ones less conducive to caution? The ones that really don't want to see a lengthy downturn of their economies.
    Obviously, it's not universal - but if something seems to be working, and other nations are doing it, the pressure to follow suit will be more than any government can resist.

    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-27 at 09:39 PM.

  3. - Top - End - #843
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-27 at 09:08 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grod_The_Giant View Post
    We should try to make that a thing; I think it might help civility. Hey, GitP, let's try to make this a thing: when you're arguing optimization strategies, RAW-logic, and similar such things that you'd never actually use in a game, tag your post [THEORETICAL] and/or use green text
    Quote Originally Posted by Lvl 2 Expert View Post
    So a ranger is like a Bachelor of Applied Druidology.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Jake View Post
    What's the word for 'fear of being eaten by a mounted bear in half-plate' again? Because that's the one I have.

  4. - Top - End - #844
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    Lizardfolk

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    The good news is that I no longer think we would competently deal with a more serious virus, so the whole world collapsing in a zombie plague is back on the menu.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Glyphstone View Post
    Vibranium: If it was on the periodic table, its chemical symbol would be "Bs".

  5. - Top - End - #845
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    DruidGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    One thing that you do see cropping up a lot in discussions about the virus is a certain segment saying that it is only a small percentage of people dying from it, as if either you die or you totally recover. That overlooks some various serious conditions that survivors end up with. Saw a post about just how serious those numbers are, based on if everyone in the US caught the virus. (There is no guarantee that it'll end up that bad, but the numbers are sobering.)

    https://i.imgur.com/GFyvSGA.jpg?1

    For every person that dies, 18 will have permanent heart damage, 10 will have permanent lung damage, 2 will have muscle weakness and 2 will have brain damage. Admittedly some of those will overlap so some will have multiple symptoms, but the damage this thing can do to survivors is pretty bad.

  6. - Top - End - #846
    Titan in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    One thing that you do see cropping up a lot in discussions about the virus is a certain segment saying that it is only a small percentage of people dying from it, as if either you die or you totally recover. That overlooks some various serious conditions that survivors end up with. Saw a post about just how serious those numbers are, based on if everyone in the US caught the virus. (There is no guarantee that it'll end up that bad, but the numbers are sobering.)

    https://i.imgur.com/GFyvSGA.jpg?1

    For every person that dies, 18 will have permanent heart damage, 10 will have permanent lung damage, 2 will have muscle weakness and 2 will have brain damage. Admittedly some of those will overlap so some will have multiple symptoms, but the damage this thing can do to survivors is pretty bad.
    That ... is monstrously exaggerated - at least if the numbers I heard are anything to go by. I've heard people talk of fears and risk that it will be like the spanish flu, where hundreds of thousands suffered long term effects. But the actual figures were miniscule. Like, one figure I remember is 43. 43 registered cases of long term after effects from the 10.000+ infected in Denmark. Now, that figure is a couple of weeks old.

    By way of comparison, btw, 15-20% of SARS patients had reduced lung capacity - but not permanently. By 3-5 years, most had fully recovered.

  7. - Top - End - #847
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    PirateGirl

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Tvtyrant View Post
    The good news is that I no longer think we would competently deal with a more serious virus, so the whole world collapsing in a zombie plague is back on the menu.
    A similar thought occurred to me as well. But more along the lines of having a recent, obvious example to point to that at least some people would be able to intuitively understand.

    I do want to point out though that the nature of the coronavirus problem is a little different than that hypothetical scenario. To discover, understand and anticipate the problem and discuss potential policy requires digging through statistics and talking about logistical operations. Most people have little to no understanding or experience of those things. So a "hospital administrator describes the situation they are potentially facing" has little means to communicate the problem and justify their explanation to people outside those fields. There's just no way to adequately communicate with a skeptical audience that doesn't share the same language.

    Slow moving disasters are just harder in general for non-experts to diagnose and properly address. Which is of course why we tend to have experts around in the first place. They can keep an eye out for all the various holes so we don't have to fall into them. So I suppose I'm saying that the almost-motionless slow zombies are more realistic civilization-annihilators than the warp speed ones.
    I write a horror blog in my spare time.

  8. - Top - End - #848
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    ElfRangerGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by BeerMug Paladin View Post
    Slow moving disasters are just harder in general for non-experts to diagnose and properly address. Which is of course why we tend to have experts around in the first place. They can keep an eye out for all the various holes so we don't have to fall into them. So I suppose I'm saying that the almost-motionless slow zombies are more realistic civilization-annihilators than the warp speed ones.
    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-28 at 09:46 AM.
    Clacks-Overhead: GNU Terry Pratchett

    "Magic can turn a frog into a prince. Science can turn a frog into a Ph.D. and you still have the frog you started with." Terry Pratchett
    "I will not yield to evil, unless she's cute."

  9. - Top - End - #849
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    Kobold

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    And I agree with that. But on the other hand you have every government on earth itching to give their populations assurance, get their economies up and running, and keep their populations safe - and that's not an environment conducive to caution. I know my faith in the powers that be is remarkably low - but I fully expect for even the sketchiest of viable vaccines to be instantly pushed into mass production.
    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-30 at 09:22 AM.
    "None of us likes to be hated, none of us likes to be shunned. A natural result of these conditions is, that we consciously or unconsciously pay more attention to tuning our opinions to our neighbor’s pitch and preserving his approval than we do to examining the opinions searchingly and seeing to it that they are right and sound." - Mark Twain

  10. - Top - End - #850
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    {scrub the post, scrub the quote}
    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-30 at 09:23 AM.

  11. - Top - End - #851
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Chen View Post
    {scrub the post, scrub the quote}
    {scrubbed}
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-30 at 09:24 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by J.R.R. Tolkien, 1955
    I thought Tom Bombadil dreadful — but worse still was the announcer's preliminary remarks that Goldberry was his daughter (!), and that Willowman was an ally of Mordor (!!).

  12. - Top - End - #852
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    DwarfClericGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by BeerMug Paladin View Post
    They can keep an eye out for all the various holes so we don't have to fall into them.
    Less likely to fall into the obvious holes.

    There's still going to be the inevitable hole they can't see because they don't have the information at the time of their analysis.

    It comes down to that caveat: "Based off the information we have at this time..."

    Kind of like this:

    Average person sees a deep pothole and moves to the right to avoid it.
    Expert warns average person that the road was weakened on the right and the car will cause it to collapse and get damaged anyway, so go left.
    But the expert doesn't know about (and can't see) the nails on the left side of the road that'll puncture the tires...
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  13. - Top - End - #853
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    Planetar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    This isn't strictly science, but I'll ask here anyway.

    I work on the NC State campus, so [url=https://www.reddit.com/r/raleigh/comments/i4t6i9/warning_from_an_nc_state_student_the_pandemic_is/] this link is of especial interest to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Reddit
    Warning from an NC State student, the pandemic is about to get really bad in Raleigh
    TL;DR: Very few students at NC State are wearing masks right now, everyone is socializing like things are normal, and we are not prepared for COVID-19 at all.

    ...

    Masks: NC State (and several local stores) are literally giving them out for free, so the argument that some students can't afford them doesn't make sense to me. Neither does accessibility arguments because it affects such a tiny portion of the population.

    During move-in when employees were carefully enforcing mask requirements, I have seen near unanimous mask usage. Outside of that, very few people have been wearing them. The highest mask usage I have seen was roughly half while in Talley Student Union yesterday. Outside of buildings, the only people I see wearing masks are (ironically) those who are walking alone and don't have much reason to do so. I've seen two instances of peer pressure being used to have someone take off a mask and while that certainly isn't enough to say this is a broad occurrence, it is troubling given the social dynamics of the first few weeks of college.

    Socialization: Being a member of Greek Life I can say that there are rumors of parties being hosted but I haven't heard anything concrete. People are still walking around campus in large groups and apparently the few university sponsored events have not had good mask enforcement. As move-in continues, this is only going to get worse.

    Preparation: As I said earlier, administration has been working hard but this is an impossible problem to plan for. Mask wearing is only being enforced through a vague Student Conduct process that "focuses on education first". Students know that it is essentially a mask suggestion aren't listening at all. There is a lot the university has done right, but with a student body that seems to be actively working against public health, I am really scared for what things are going to look like.

    The general consensus is that we won't be on campus for long (my personal over/under is 3.5 weeks after classes start) so hopefully this doesn't affect the broader Raleigh community too much but people need to have visibility into what is going on so I wanted to try to provide that information.
    Do we have any college students here who would like to comment? Is this what you're seeing? And if so, do you have any suggestions as to getting people to pay attention?

    For my part, I've seen campaigns against unprotected sex, binge drinking, and drug use. None of it seems to have any impact on the willfully self-destructive behavior of a portion of the student body. Now it seems COVID-19 will fall into the same bin of something that is both predictable and preventable, but we'll still have trouble because people don't listen.

    Any suggestions as to how to get people to actually listen and take the appropriate precautions?

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."

    -Valery Legasov in Chernobyl

  14. - Top - End - #854
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    Tyndmyr's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    I think awareness campaigns are only ever helpful to a certain point. Once essentially everyone is aware of something, further awareness efforts don't do a whole lot. At this point, people are probably largely aware of the threat, if not burned out on hearing about it so frequently.

    If folks are aware and unwilling to change behavior, well, then you've got to persuade them. And it is just unlikely that you'll ever get absolutely everyone on board. Sometimes it helps to ease the perceived cost. For instance, people may be more willing to wear masks if they provided/readily available.

  15. - Top - End - #855
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
    Planetar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    Sometimes it helps to ease the perceived cost. For instance, people may be more willing to wear masks if they provided/readily available.

    In this case, the university is giving them away for free.

    ETA: Free Masks in the Raleigh area
    .

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    Last edited by pendell; 2020-08-06 at 03:52 PM.
    "Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."

    -Valery Legasov in Chernobyl

  16. - Top - End - #856
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    Kobold

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Students, always and everywhere, engage in all sorts of self-destructive behaviour. It's just what humans do at that stage in their life - when they're finally free from being policed by their families, but they haven't yet fully absorbed the idea that their actions have consequences.

    The trouble is, this particular behaviour is not so much self-destructive as community-destructive. The students themselves probably won't suffer, significantly - it's other people who will. That makes it even harder to sell self-restraint.
    "None of us likes to be hated, none of us likes to be shunned. A natural result of these conditions is, that we consciously or unconsciously pay more attention to tuning our opinions to our neighbor’s pitch and preserving his approval than we do to examining the opinions searchingly and seeing to it that they are right and sound." - Mark Twain

  17. - Top - End - #857
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    Rockphed's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    Students, always and everywhere, engage in all sorts of self-destructive behaviour. It's just what humans do at that stage in their life - when they're finally free from being policed by their families, but they haven't yet fully absorbed the idea that their actions have consequences.

    The trouble is, this particular behaviour is not so much self-destructive as community-destructive. The students themselves probably won't suffer, significantly - it's other people who will. That makes it even harder to sell self-restraint.
    The normal way to deal with destructive behavior of young adults is to try to educate them about the consequences, but the consequences to young adults for getting COVID are fairly mild.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wardog View Post
    Rockphed said it well.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yuki Akuma View Post
    We should change the collective noun for crocodiles to "an abundance of crocodiles".
    Dragontar by Serpentine.

    Now offering unsolicited advice.

  18. - Top - End - #858
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    Lizardfolk

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Rockphed View Post
    The normal way to deal with destructive behavior of young adults is to try to educate them about the consequences, but the consequences to young adults for getting COVID are fairly mild.
    Also... They often don't care. Part of being young is not having experienced consequences, no amount of analytical understanding will make it feel real the way having the first few friends die in drunk driving accidents, overdoses and random diseases does.

    If numbers worked as a precaution, we wouldn't have:

    Frat Parties
    Teen Pregnancies
    VD/STD/STIs
    Drunk Drivers
    People not wearing bike helmets
    People not wearing seat belts
    Etc.
    Last edited by Tvtyrant; 2020-08-06 at 04:47 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Glyphstone View Post
    Vibranium: If it was on the periodic table, its chemical symbol would be "Bs".

  19. - Top - End - #859
    Firbolg in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    Do we have any college students here who would like to comment? Is this what you're seeing? And if so, do you have any suggestions as to getting people to pay attention?
    Not a college student, but I interact with quite a few. The author's very right. Our local uni brought back the student athletes and we had 100 testing positive the middle of the next week. At this point, they've had 38% fail their tests and the kids still won't mask up or quarantine.

    Any suggestions as to how to get people to actually listen and take the appropriate precautions?

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    Frankly? Don't give them an option. Make it mandatory, and make the noncompliance fines stiff enough to hurt.

  20. - Top - End - #860
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    ElfPirate

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    Frankly? Don't give them an option. Make it mandatory, and make the noncompliance fines stiff enough to hurt.
    Yup. This. Non-mask compliance is easy to spot too...

    What I'm not sure of is what the "fine" should be, am not convinced an actual fine is the way to go.

  21. - Top - End - #861
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    Eldan's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Up to 200 dollars for a first infraction, over here.
    "Après la vie - le mort, après le mort, la vie de noveau.
    Après le monde - le gris; après le gris - le monde de nouveau.
    "

  22. - Top - End - #862
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    AssassinGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Up to 500 dollars here. And i live in a college town, so we've been pondering pretty much this exact scenario. The students have had real discipline and good sense problems here in the past, so there was already starting to be a pretty big crackdown on their behavior even before the pandemic.

    Only so many football victory induced riots, and hazing induced deaths you can watch before they prove they just cant handle the freedom.
    “Evil is evil. Lesser, greater, middling, it's all the same. Proportions are negotiated, boundaries blurred. I'm not a pious hermit, I haven't done only good in my life. But if I'm to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all.”

  23. - Top - End - #863
    Firbolg in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    If that was the case, we'd have cracked down on the house parties after the fifth alcohol poisoning death in a month.

    Let's face it. People are dumb. And lazy.

  24. - Top - End - #864
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    DrowGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    If that was the case, we'd have cracked down on the house parties after the fifth alcohol poisoning death in a month.

    Let's face it. People are dumb. And lazy.
    I agree with you. They don't know any better.
    It's time to get my Magikarp on!

  25. - Top - End - #865
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    AssassinGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    If that was the case, we'd have cracked down on the house parties after the fifth alcohol poisoning death in a month.

    Let's face it. People are dumb. And lazy.
    At least in this town, we have. It took a while, but we have. We find alcohol at a frat party? Theyre done. Permanently. Doesnt even matter if anybody got hurt this time, we just arent having it anymore. There was a case that made national news for a while that served as the final stimulus for this, and the college authorities are playing hardball now.
    “Evil is evil. Lesser, greater, middling, it's all the same. Proportions are negotiated, boundaries blurred. I'm not a pious hermit, I haven't done only good in my life. But if I'm to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all.”

  26. - Top - End - #866
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
    DrowGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    So far the United States has reached a new high of the death tolls with the COVID-19: 160,000!
    It's time to get my Magikarp on!

  27. - Top - End - #867
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    Lizardfolk

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Keltest View Post
    At least in this town, we have. It took a while, but we have. We find alcohol at a frat party? Theyre done. Permanently. Doesnt even matter if anybody got hurt this time, we just arent having it anymore. There was a case that made national news for a while that served as the final stimulus for this, and the college authorities are playing hardball now.
    That's actually fantastic IMO. Those house parties are hot beds for crimes, ODs and other issues. Also they never invited me.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Glyphstone View Post
    Vibranium: If it was on the periodic table, its chemical symbol would be "Bs".

  28. - Top - End - #868
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Keltest View Post
    At least in this town, we have. It took a while, but we have. We find alcohol at a frat party? Theyre done. Permanently. Doesnt even matter if anybody got hurt this time, we just arent having it anymore. There was a case that made national news for a while that served as the final stimulus for this, and the college authorities are playing hardball now.
    That's kind of insane. Was the alcohol ban specific for COVID, or was it an existing rule that just didn't get enforced strictly until now?

    Our frat-equivalents owned their own houses off campus and didn't have a national council to answer to, so there was a limit to how much outside rules could be imposed, and even in the dorms, only the freshmen dorms imposed a complete alcohol ban. I can understand the appeal of a complete ban for the sake of safeguarding against bad PR and civil liability. However, from a standpoint of student safety, I think there are more effective ways to discourage binge drinking and other extreme behaviors. Banning all alcohol from campus or from frat parties just means that people are less likely to seek emergency aid if there is illicit drinking, or they take their partying somewhere else where the school has no control at all.

    My opinion is, of course, limited to alcohol bans on campus during normal times. I think that some states have been a little too uneven in their treatment of bars vs. restaurants that serve alcohol vs. anyone selling just food, but I think it plausible if someone wants to argue that mixing college students and any alcohol at all would make it nearly impossible to implement effective safety measures.

  29. - Top - End - #869
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    AssassinGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Xyril View Post
    That's kind of insane. Was the alcohol ban specific for COVID, or was it an existing rule that just didn't get enforced strictly until now?

    Our frat-equivalents owned their own houses off campus and didn't have a national council to answer to, so there was a limit to how much outside rules could be imposed, and even in the dorms, only the freshmen dorms imposed a complete alcohol ban. I can understand the appeal of a complete ban for the sake of safeguarding against bad PR and civil liability. However, from a standpoint of student safety, I think there are more effective ways to discourage binge drinking and other extreme behaviors. Banning all alcohol from campus or from frat parties just means that people are less likely to seek emergency aid if there is illicit drinking, or they take their partying somewhere else where the school has no control at all.

    My opinion is, of course, limited to alcohol bans on campus during normal times. I think that some states have been a little too uneven in their treatment of bars vs. restaurants that serve alcohol vs. anyone selling just food, but I think it plausible if someone wants to argue that mixing college students and any alcohol at all would make it nearly impossible to implement effective safety measures.
    About a year before the pandemic started, there was a kid who was pledged to a fraternity, got drunk, fell down some stairs and died. He was underage. There were lawsuits, people were arrested, so the college said "enough is enough" and adopted a no-tolerance policy on alcohol or hazing violations for the greek societies. There have been i think two frats that have been shut down since then for trying to call their bluff, with a couple more under investigation when the pandemic hit and kind of put a hold on everything.

    Likekwise, the borough council just formally passed the mask requirement ordinance formally a couple days ago (i was mistaken, it is a $300 fine for a first offense) unanimously and with the support of the president of the college. It also allows the police to break up gatherings of more than 10 people in an indoor space, or 25 outdoors.

    No doubt some students will continue to try to call our bluff. At this point, let em pay the fine or go to jail. When we played nice, local property was destroyed and people died.
    “Evil is evil. Lesser, greater, middling, it's all the same. Proportions are negotiated, boundaries blurred. I'm not a pious hermit, I haven't done only good in my life. But if I'm to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all.”

  30. - Top - End - #870
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    Zombie

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Keltest View Post
    Only so many football victory induced riots, and hazing induced deaths you can watch before they prove they just cant handle the freedom.
    I don't think it's not being able to handle freedom. It's a lack of consequences, permissiveness and in some cases encouragement of such stupid behavior. They don't think there will be any repercussions so don't care what they do.
    Member of the Giants in the Playground Forum Chapter for the Movement to Reunite Gondwana!

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