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  1. - Top - End - #721
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    From the numbers I've seen, it's less dangerous than the flu to almost everyone - and then conversely much more dangerous to than the flu to a few, the elderly, those with chronic diseases, and so on. Last I heard, the numbers as they stand now, basically no one is really dying from it anymore. Meaning once we're prepared, and have manageable levels of infected, it's literally less dangerous than the flu.
    I would be curious where you heard that, because it does not match anything that I have seen outside of alt-right conspiracy theory pages. For example, the page that I'm looking at says that yesterday there were 176,000 new cases reported, and 4,787 new deaths reported, which is a death rate of 2.7%. I mean, obviously not directly, because deaths aren't based on new cases from the same day, but the point is that people are still dying from it at similar rates to how they've been dying from it for a while now. It's only low compared to the nightmarish early days in China and Italy.

    To be blunt, anyone who is telling you that coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu is a liar. By every metric, every study, and every expert, coronavirus is more deadly. There are a lot of estimates about how much deadlier it is, with conservative estimates saying about five times as deadly and more radical estimates saying 10-20 times as deadly. I have yet to see a single reputable source say that coronavirus has a lower mortality rate than the flu, and I honestly don't understand why you continue to insist that this is the case in the face of all evidence.

    (And of course, all of that is without counting the secondary effects of coronavirus, which we'll have to wait a while to see but which early testing suggests is much worse than the flu.)
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    From the numbers I've seen, it's less dangerous than the flu to almost everyone - and then conversely much more dangerous to than the flu to a few, the elderly, those with cronic diseases, and so on. Last I heard, the numbers as they stand now, basically no one is really dying from it anymore. Meaning once we're prepared, and have manageable levels of infected, it's literally less dangerous than the flu.
    The ratio of CFR for the 65+ bracket to the 18-49 bracket for influenza is a factor of 41.5. So you're in 41.5 times as much danger getting influenza as a 65+ year old than if you're 18-49.

    The corresponding ratio for Covid-19 is roughly 19-29 (I got the lower bound from reported data from China, and the upper bound of 29 from US data). So age by age, being young protects you less from Covid than it does from flu.

    And so far this year Covid deaths in the US are 3.8x last year's flu deaths. So I would not make any bets on the IFR of Covid being less than 0.3% (compared to flu's ~0.08%) as an optimistic lower bound. 1% IFR seems credible.
    Last edited by NichG; 2020-07-04 at 12:19 AM.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    To all those still sceptical about the numbers, look to those (isolated) communities that have successfully managed their outbreaks. The biggest example I know of is the one I live in, New Zealand.

    We have had something between 1500 and 1600 cases, and 22 deaths. Period. There is no significant uncertainty about either of those numbers. We know to a very high degree of confidence that there is, and has been, no big reservoir of undetected cases running around, because a lot of the population has been tested by now and if any such hidden cluster existed we would have noticed them.

    Of course you can still quibble about the sample size, demography and whatever else takes your fancy. But at this point, the position that "we can't know the true mortality because we can't trust the numbers" is no longer defensible.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    To all those still sceptical about the numbers, look to those (isolated) communities that have successfully managed their outbreaks. The biggest example I know of is the one I live in, New Zealand.

    We have had something between 1500 and 1600 cases, and 22 deaths. Period. There is no significant uncertainty about either of those numbers. We know to a very high degree of confidence that there is, and has been, no big reservoir of undetected cases running around, because a lot of the population has been tested by now and if any such hidden cluster existed we would have noticed them.

    Of course you can still quibble about the sample size, demography and whatever else takes your fancy. But at this point, the position that "we can't know the true mortality because we can't trust the numbers" is no longer defensible.
    Eyep.

    For those who aren't quick at back of the napkin math, that's a 1.466% fatality rate, almost exactly the rate that Pelee listed and that Kaptin Keen dismissed as 'no one has the numbers.'

    *EDIT* And to be clear, I do agree with Keen about one thing - COVID is manageable. We've seen countries that have managed it well enough to successfully open again, albeit with ongoing restrictions, and yep, Denmark is one of those countries. I just think that the fact that it is manageable is causing some people to drastically underestimate what happens when it is not managed.
    Last edited by Friv; 2020-07-03 at 05:23 PM.
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  5. - Top - End - #725
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Friv View Post
    To be blunt, anyone who is telling you that coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu is a liar.
    Mortality rates are fluid. All I can tell you is: When we first started tracking, covid-19 was quite dangerous to certain groups, primarily the elderly with pre-existing chronic disease. It's much, much less dangerous now. Because we've gotten much, much better at keeping people alive.

    So, these days, if you're under 60 or so - here, in Denmark - basically the mortality rate is zero. And by the way zero, even right from the outset, without 'comorbidities'. Please, tell me I'm a liar.

    Now, obviously the lower mortality rate is a result of active measures taken, and quite likely if we treated the flu in the same way, it would have an even lower mortality rate. But there's no argument to be made there - the mortality rates for everything except age drops to zero if we stop doing them.

    You want to talk about lies? Tell you what: Everyone out there who spread only the worst news, exclusively - they are liars. And that's basically everyone. All the news media, all the sources the general populace have access to, they all lie. Because bigger, bloodier headlines make more money.

    What I'm telling you is true. Like it or not, to the best of my ability, I have said nothing in this discussion that isn't true.

    In Denmark, not even a single person under the age of 60 has died without two or more pre-existing chronic diseases. In total, 12 people below 60 have died - all had 2 or more comorbidities. I don't have the total number of infected under 60, so I can't give you a percentage. Even above the age of 80, if you have no comorbidities, there's a 18% mortality rate. I don't know the corresponding number for flu, but the study I'm quoting considers that 'low'.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Maybe you could link the study?
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    Mortality rates are fluid. All I can tell you is: When we first started tracking, covid-19 was quite dangerous to certain groups, primarily the elderly with pre-existing chronic disease. It's much, much less dangerous now. Because we've gotten much, much better at keeping people alive.

    So, these days, if you're under 60 or so - here, in Denmark - basically the mortality rate is zero. And by the way zero, even right from the outset, without 'comorbidities'. Please, tell me I'm a liar.
    I won't speculate as to whether you're lying. But statistically this is definitely a misleading statement when you don't include error bars.

    Denmark has beensitting steadily around 500 active cases at a given time for around the last month. A Covid case lasts about a month, call it 30 days. If there's a 5% case fatality rate, you'd expect about 5/6ths of a death a day. Over a month you'd expect 25 deaths. From June 1st to July 1st, Denmark has had 30 deaths (576 deaths as of June 1st, 606 deaths as of July 1st). So lets say I look at a given day and no one dies. Can I say 'aha, the mortality rate is zero.'? No, because zero people dying on one particular day is consistent with as much as a 5% case fatality rate.

    If Denmark's Covid cases fall according to its' age demographics, then roughly 400 of the 500 cases are below 65 years of age. Lets say all the deaths in the last month have been 65+, to be generous here. What CFR range would that be consistent with in the under-65 demographic?

    If individual deaths are statistically independent, we'd expect a Poisson distribution consistent with taking 400 samples of an x% death rate. The probability of the evidence (no one dies) given the hypothesis (CFR x) is p(evidence|x) = (1-x)^400. That seems extreme, but the percentages x are also generally pretty small. So what CFR for younger people would give a 50/50 shot of seeing the outcome we observed? It turns out to be about 0.17%.

    That's not 'zero'. In fact it's higher than the average CFR for influenza including the elderly.

    If you want a 95% confidence interval, we can say that the CFR in younger people isn't higher than 0.7% with 95% confidence. But that's not much of a constraint.

    For reference, the average CFR for the below 65 bracket in South Korea around March 24th was about 0.25%. So zero young deaths in the last month in Denmark would be consistent with being slightly better at preventing death, but I wouldn't use it as evidence of being 'much, much better at keeping people alive'. The interval in question, number of active cases, etc isn't sufficient to draw that conclusion using Denmark as the only data source.
    Last edited by NichG; 2020-07-04 at 08:17 AM.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Vinyadan View Post
    Maybe you could link the study?
    I don't really take part in the my-link-your-link cyber armwrestling. I didn't save the link, and I'm slightly hazy on what I searched for. And it's by no means imperative to me that others can sit down and fact check me - because to be 100% honest, I don't really care deeply enough.

    Ah, found it. Clearly, it's in danish. Oh, and I just noticed there's a link to the full study, in english - which I didn't read, and can't be bothered to. So wouldn't it be ironic if there was something in there to directly contradict what I'm saying. Good luck =)

    Quote Originally Posted by NichG View Post
    Misleading .. not 'zero' ..
    Misleading?

    I can be very, very clear: No one under 60 has died in Denmark - at all, at any point - without 2 or more comorbidities. And no one has died under the age of 60 in recent weeks, at all. That's not misleading. That's simply fact.

    Or I can't find the data. That's also possible, but as far as I can reasonably determine, the above two statements are irrefutably true.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    I don't really take part in the my-link-your-link cyber armwrestling. I didn't save the link, and I'm slightly hazy on what I searched for. And it's by no means imperative to me that others can sit down and fact check me - because to be 100% honest, I don't really care deeply enough.
    You obviously do, because you're sitting here trying to convince everyone who will listen that COVID isn't that big a deal if you aren't elderly.

    Look, it's great that Denmark successfully managed its lockdown. It really is. It is wonderful that your cases have been so low that hospitalizations have been equally low, and that death rates are staying down. But frankly, given your track record on COVID I'm not going to trust anything that you say without studies to back it up, especially given that I have actual evidence that states that you're wrong.

    And to be clear, I'm not calling you a liar. I'm saying that either you are mistaken about the information you're receiving and drawing incorrect inferences, or the sources that you are using to draw your conclusions are lying to you. Without seeing the sources, couldn't say which.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Friv View Post
    You obviously do, because you're sitting here trying to convince everyone who will listen that COVID isn't that big a deal if you aren't elderly.
    I'm not, though. In fact, please - point me to where I said that.

    I'm counter-alarmist, is what I am. And that's all I am. I'm consistenly providing the information the rest of this board seems intent on ignoring - because without it, the discussion is skewed. But I'm not trying to convince anyone. Really, really not. In fact, it's my absolute conviction that internet discussion is all but 100% a waste of time.

    I post not because anyone might decide to reply. I post for the majority who merely lurk. Those are the one's whose conviction is generally not yet set in stone. They are why I post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Friv View Post
    Look, it's great that Denmark successfully managed its lockdown. It really is. It is wonderful that your cases have been so low that hospitalizations have been equally low, and that death rates are staying down. But frankly, given your track record on COVID I'm not going to trust anything that you say without studies to back it up, especially given that I have actual evidence that states that you're wrong.

    And to be clear, I'm not calling you a liar. I'm saying that either you are mistaken about the information you're receiving and drawing incorrect inferences, or the sources that you are using to draw your conclusions are lying to you. Without seeing the sources, couldn't say which.
    My track record is spotless. My information is correct. I'm drawing no mistaken conclusions from it.

    There's a chance I'm misinformed. But that's the same for literally everyone.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Keen maybe it changed since I mostly started skipping your posts, but when I still read them you weren't providing much information because you don't bother with sources and don't give them even when asked. You were mostly giving your interpretations without sufficient information to judge them, so unless one absolutely trusts your interpretation it isn't very useful.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    My track record is spotless. My information is correct. I'm drawing no mistaken conclusions from it.
    Spotless, you say.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    It's .. the flu. Like all the other flu's the world has been panicking over, it's totally harmless to the vast majority of everyone - but if you're old and/or infirm, maybe be a little more careful than usual.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    When this is all over, and it is - once again - not a big deal, just remember I said: It's just the flu.

    Just like the other giant flu scares, SARS, MERS, pig flu, chicken flu, whatever flu - this one also isn't anything at all to get worked up about. It's just ... the flu.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    Oh, and here's something else. This is at least the third time the WHO and other authorities have kicked up a major scare over nothing. They will be embarassed about it. And sooner or later - and I'm just going to say, it's going to happen this time - they'll settle on how convenient it will be to claim they averted disaster by firm, fast action ... rather than admit they were wrong, again, and it was a huge mass hysteria over nothing at all.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Friv View Post
    You obviously do, because you're sitting here trying to convince everyone who will listen that COVID isn't that big a deal if you aren't elderly.
    I'm not, though. In fact, please - point me to where I said that.
    Your very first post in this thread (and, in fact, post #2 in the thread overall, the very first reply by anyone):
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    It's .. the flu. Like all the other flu's the world has been panicking over, it's totally harmless to the vast majority of everyone - but if you're old and/or infirm, maybe be a little more careful than usual.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Ibrinar View Post
    .. don't bother with sources ..
    I do not. I also don't ask for any from the rest of you. Sometimes, if a source is easy to find again, I don't really mind. But I've absolutely nothing to prove to any of you. This is a discussion, not a crisis meeting.

    Quote Originally Posted by Friv View Post
    Spotless, you say.
    Yes I do. Spotless.

    Now, have I voiced opinions that proved to be wrong? Sure. It's worse than SARS or MERS. Quite a lot so. But I have posted nothing that was untruthful.

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    Your very first post in this thread (and, in fact, post #2 in the thread overall, the very first reply by anyone):
    While ... premature, and somewhat overzealous, it's ... partly correct, too. Can I just state again: No one below the age of 60 has died without two or more comorbidities.

    Yes - I was wrong. But I wasn't entirely wrong. And that's an important difference.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    While ... premature, and somewhat overzealous, it's ... partly correct, too. Can I just state again: No one below the age of 60 has died without two or more comorbidities.
    Im not quite sure I see the point you're trying to make here. People with comorbitities, who would be alive otherwise, are now dead. So.... forget them? They don't matter? People with comorbitities deserve to die? If you're not perfectly healthy, sucks to be you, us healthy people are pretty safe so you can go die by the wayside? Does the flu magically protect people with comorbitities, so such people don't factor into flu deaths?

    I'm sure the half million people globally who have died in the last - what, five months? - appreciate the fact that someone is lecturing random internet people on how we have been just overzealous, and the global medical community is just a bunch of silly-heads standing on a chair shrieking at the metaphorical mouse.
    Last edited by Peelee; 2020-07-04 at 05:38 PM.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    This seems likely as the source of the comorbidities/death stats claims for Denmark: https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/dk/...eath.pdf?la=da

    Helpfully, they also give the distribution of comorbidities in the cohort. 50% of people (and this includes those testing negative for Covid, etc) have at least 1 comorbidity and 26% have at least 2 (Table 1, 15th page). So 'comorbidity' isn't a rare thing. Half of the people reading this post are likely to have one, by those definitions.

    Common comorbidities among the cohort include: Chronic lung disease (16% have it), Hypertension (24%), Ischemic Heart Disease (8.5%), Diabetes (6.9%), Cancer (8.3%), Obesity (9.9%), Alcohol abuse (4.9%)

    Other things which count as comorbidities that might not be obvious: Arthritis (4.1%), Dementia (1.6%), 'Major Psychiatric Disorder' (1.4%)

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by NichG View Post
    This seems likely as the source of the comorbidities/death stats claims for Denmark: https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/dk/...eath.pdf?la=da

    Helpfully, they also give the distribution of comorbidities in the cohort. 50% of people (and this includes those testing negative for Covid, etc) have at least 1 comorbidity and 26% have at least 2 (Table 1, 15th page). So 'comorbidity' isn't a rare thing. Half of the people reading this post are likely to have one, by those definitions.

    Common comorbidities among the cohort include: Chronic lung disease (16% have it), Hypertension (24%), Ischemic Heart Disease (8.5%), Diabetes (6.9%), Cancer (8.3%), Obesity (9.9%), Alcohol abuse (4.9%)

    Other things which count as comorbidities that might not be obvious: Arthritis (4.1%), Dementia (1.6%), 'Major Psychiatric Disorder' (1.4%)
    Exactly this. Comorbidities are incredibly common. It's fair to say that by the time you reach 60, you are almost guaranteed to have one or more.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    I don't really take part in the my-link-your-link cyber armwrestling. I didn't save the link, and I'm slightly hazy on what I searched for. And it's by no means imperative to me that others can sit down and fact check me - because to be 100% honest, I don't really care deeply enough.

    Ah, found it. Clearly, it's in danish. Oh, and I just noticed there's a link to the full study, in english - which I didn't read, and can't be bothered to. So wouldn't it be ironic if there was something in there to directly contradict what I'm saying. Good luck =)
    It's not about you, it's about the "low" in inverted commas, and how parts of your post can be read in multiple ways.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    In Denmark, not even a single person under the age of 60 has died without two or more pre-existing chronic diseases. In total, 12 people below 60 have died - all had 2 or more comorbidities. I don't have the total number of infected under 60, so I can't give you a percentage. Even above the age of 80, if you have no comorbidities, there's a 18% mortality rate. I don't know the corresponding number for flu, but the study I'm quoting considers that 'low'.
    Calling an 18% death rate "low" in absolute terms would be odd. At least for what I could see, the study refers "low" to the death rates of 0 to 1 to 5% for those younger than 80, while comparing the numbers to those of the oldest age brackets, which have a far higher death rate, even without comorbidity.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    I'm counter-alarmist, is what I am. And that's all I am.
    You're counter-alarmist to the point of ridiculousness, is the problem. Covid-19 isn't Ebola, sure, but it isn't "just the flu" either, as the death toll so far worldwide shows. You also can't extrapolate your personal experience of "Oh, I had it but I got better, it wasn't all that bad" as being universal, since we already know it's possible to have Covid-19 without problems and even, in some cases, without any detectable symptoms.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinyadan View Post
    It's not about you, it's about the "low" in inverted commas, and how parts of your post can be read in multiple ways.
    If you're actively searching for things to deliberately misinterpret - sure. Otherwise, I think I've been fairly straight. But if the assumption is that I'm a raving madman out to deny the seriousness of the situation, obviosly everything I post is going to be seen through that lens, and ... well, you get the predictable result.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vinyadan View Post
    Calling an 18% death rate "low" in absolute terms would be odd. At least for what I could see, the study refers "low" to the death rates of 0 to 1 to 5% for those younger than 80, while comparing the numbers to those of the oldest age brackets, which have a far higher death rate, even without comorbidity.
    It's what they do, though. I'm guessing by 'low' they mean it's fewer deaths than you'd expect from the flu in the same set of patients.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    It's what they do, though. I'm guessing by 'low' they mean it's fewer deaths than you'd expect from the flu in the same set of patients.
    In the 85-89 year bin, it looks like about 6% of influenza-related hospitalizations result in death: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...496-X/fulltext

    So Covid is 3x that.

    I don't know the precise relative demographics for the different bins so I can't aggregate them more broadly into the full 85+ category, but globally at least there are many fewer 90+ year olds than 85-89 year olds.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by NichG View Post
    In the 85-89 year bin, it looks like about 6% of influenza-related hospitalizations result in death: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...496-X/fulltext

    So Covid is 3x that.

    I don't know the precise relative demographics for the different bins so I can't aggregate them more broadly into the full 85+ category, but globally at least there are many fewer 90+ year olds than 85-89 year olds.
    And? It's not me calling it low. You ... do realise that, right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    And? It's not me calling it low. You ... do realise that, right?
    You're repeating what the other source says and speculating about what they mean by it. This shows that either they're incorrect, or they don't mean what you're saying you think they mean.

    Rather than sit on doubt and say 'well, someone said this thing, so maybe this thing we think they mean is true?', this resolves that doubt.

  24. - Top - End - #744
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    If you're actively searching for things to deliberately misinterpret - sure. Otherwise, I think I've been fairly straight. But if the assumption is that I'm a raving madman out to deny the seriousness of the situation, obviosly everything I post is going to be seen through that lens, and ... well, you get the predictable result.
    If you feel that you are communicating clearly, and every single person you are talking to is telling you that you're not, the problem may not be with every single other person.
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  25. - Top - End - #745
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Friv View Post
    If you feel that you are communicating clearly, and every single person you are talking to is telling you that you're not, the problem may not be with every single other person.
    Well, see - that's not a bad argument, as such. I give you credit. Yes, the flaw may be mine.

    But there is the other option. That of social dynamics. In which it is very much possible that the guy who's ... new to the board (that may be stretching it a bit in my case), has a rather visibly different point of view, and is in no mood to back down, becomes the continual butt end of the group dynamic.

    Now, you have your view, I have mine. What I'm going to do is what I habitually do at this point: The discussion has become about me, rather than about covid, and I really have zero reason to be part of that. You can safely debate me in my absence.

  26. - Top - End - #746
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Just thought I'd note here that the latest famous death from Covid-19 is the Canadian actor Nick Cordero, who was only 41 years old and, as far as I know, had no pre-existing illnesses that made things worse--if anyone knows better, please let me know.

  27. - Top - End - #747
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    I'm not, though. In fact, please - point me to where I said that.

    I'm counter-alarmist, is what I am. And that's all I am. I'm consistenly providing the information the rest of this board seems intent on ignoring - because without it, the discussion is skewed. But I'm not trying to convince anyone. Really, really not. In fact, it's my absolute conviction that internet discussion is all but 100% a waste of time.

    I post not because anyone might decide to reply. I post for the majority who merely lurk. Those are the one's whose conviction is generally not yet set in stone. They are why I post.
    If you're not after a discussion, a discussion board may not be right for you. And if you're unable to successfully engage with the folks who are talking with you, it's unlikely that you are particularly persuasive to uninvolved viewers.

    My track record is spotless. My information is correct. I'm drawing no mistaken conclusions from it.

    There's a chance I'm misinformed. But that's the same for literally everyone.
    It seems quite unambiguous that describing Covid as basically a flu is...not right. It is certainly possible to be overly alarmist, and models have no doubt been wrong, but the data we has still shows it to be a decently major event. It ain't the black death, but the effects from it do rise above the yearly illness background noise.

    As for the comorbidity thing, sure. Illnesses in general are far harder on folks with existing issues. Young, healthy people with no problems rarely die to the first illness that crops up. This is not something that is unique to the coronavirus, nor does it makes those effects somehow not count. The sick and weak nearly always have less existing capacity to deal with additional health threats.

    And by sheer virtue of age, you and everyone else will eventually pick up various conditions. For all you are complaining about inaccuracy, this has been generally reported accurately. The news has continually discussed how the elderly and immunocompromised people are at far higher risk. I think it would be difficult to find any individual who doesn't yet know that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    Even above the age of 80, if you have no comorbidities, there's a 18% mortality rate. I don't know the corresponding number for flu, but the study I'm quoting considers that 'low'.
    An 18% mortality rate is quite high. Now, mortality rates are generally higher among the elderly, but even so, that's about a one in five chance of kicking the bucket. With no comorbidity, which is an unusually good state of affairs for someone at eighty. Even at its highest, the flu doesn't kill such a share of those taken ill.

    It is not alarmist in any way to say that this illness is a significant threat to the elderly, and it's likely we'll want to be particularly vigilant about protections for them. We're now just about reaching the point where 1% of the country has been a case of it. That's well below any herd immunity threshold, but it's certainly large enough to make containment very concerning. There's certainly signs that many measures have been helping, but the numbers of new cases remain significant in many regions, and in some, the rate of positive tests is *increasing*, which indicates that it is not an artifact of increased testing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keltest View Post
    At this point, i wouldnt trust any statistics about the mortality rate. There are so many caveats and "i dont knows" about, among other things, asymptomatic infections and whether its actually the virus or other existing issues actually responsible for the deaths that accurate information basically doesnt exist at the moment.
    Acknowledging what you don't know is valuable and necessary. However, the fact that our knowledge is incomplete does not mean that our knowledge is useless or null. We can approximate various values and the more information we have, the smaller our margin of error becomes. We understand more about how it spreads, how infectious it is, etc. At this point, we can start approximating herd immunity thresholds and so on.

    We may still have some room for margin of error on calculating the lethality, but we can be quite certain it is worse than the flu. Flus have a range as well, but save for events like the Spanish Flu, which was also a horribly lethal pandemic, they are simply not as lethal by a significant margin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Anti-Eagle View Post
    My thought was less the hand sanitizer reason, and more the chemotherapy reason, reasoning that it wasn't impossible you could consume enough alcohol to destroy the virus without killing yourself.

    I thought it was a dumb question, but thought I might as well ask somewhere that would give me a serious answer rather than settle this curiosity with people who would joke about it.
    I don't know of a way to safely treat your lungs with antibacterial, well, anything. Probably best avoided, because of the significant damage it would do. However, there is an adjacent use of antibacterial liquids. Gargling mouthwash. It's pretty safe and normal, and has anti-bacterial properties. I don't know how much protective/curative effect it would have for coronavirus specifically, but it seems a fairly harmless measure to try if you want to add it to your morning routine.
    Last edited by Tyndmyr; 2020-07-08 at 04:00 PM.
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  28. - Top - End - #748
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    So .. I'm reasonably sure no one is waiting with baited breath for the latest news from Denmark - but I'll give it anyways, because I find it relevant.

    Last week we have had zero dead, and one new case.

    I can't claim to know why - but since why the hell not, I'll give an opinion: It's because we're such good little children, and going nicely along with the guidelines. We've largely reopened society, and we cannot seem to create an uptick in contagion pressure.

    I have no better explanation. And if I'm right, it's interesting, because it seems that the virus is fairly managable - under certain given circumstances. Such as going along with the guidelines, combined with maybe climate, general health, population density and so on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    An 18% mortality rate is quite high.
    I quoted a source. Tell them.

  29. - Top - End - #749
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    So .. I'm reasonably sure no one is waiting with baited breath for the latest news from Denmark - but I'll give it anyways, because I find it relevant.

    Last week we have had zero dead, and one new case.

    I can't claim to know why - but since why the hell not, I'll give an opinion: It's because we're such good little children, and going nicely along with the guidelines. We've largely reopened society, and we cannot seem to create an uptick in contagion pressure.

    I have no better explanation. And if I'm right, it's interesting, because it seems that the virus is fairly managable - under certain given circumstances. Such as going along with the guidelines, combined with maybe climate, general health, population density and so on.



    I quoted a source. Tell them.
    A quick google check suggests that New York City has a higher population than the entire country of denmark, so that may be a contributing factor.
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  30. - Top - End - #750
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Denmark is tiny but they haveabout the same per capita death rate as germany which has about 14 times as many people as denmark and here the daily deaths have gotten quite small too. (From a few hundred a day at the peak down to less than 20 and now mostly less than 10.) It seems to be manageable even if you were to late to shut it down at the very start like south korea. There is still the question of how it will work out long term as measure and adherence to measures get weaker, of course. But atm I am happy living somewhere that is still doing okay
    Last edited by Ibrinar; 2020-07-08 at 07:01 PM.

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