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  1. - Top - End - #901
    Titan in the Playground
     
    Grey_Wolf_c's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by sihnfahl View Post
    Based off what? There literally is no evidence the vaccine works other than their assertion it works.
    It's certainly not off of this article. And I'm surprised this got written at all, given the inherent dangers of speaking out against Putin and then standing near windows.

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    But really, the important lesson here is this: Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?
    Ceterum autem censeo Hilgya malefica est

  2. - Top - End - #902
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    Lizardfolk

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    The thing with big emergency measures is if they work you are a hero, if they don't you are a reckless madman/feckless idiot. It's a gamble.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Glyphstone View Post
    Vibranium: If it was on the periodic table, its chemical symbol would be "Bs".

  3. - Top - End - #903
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    AssassinGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by sihnfahl View Post
    Based off what? There literally is no evidence the vaccine works other than their assertion it works.

    That's like trusting a car manufacturer saying their collision safety systems work to protect you ... but they won't show you the crash test footage that proves it. Or the conditions they tested the collision systems. But hey, buy the car!
    Ars Technica has a good write-up about the vaccine where they are dubious of the efficacy, and they report that there is only registered information for two Phase I trials with 38 people in each trial which are estimated to be completed by August 15, 2020.

    It appears that Russia has skipped Phase III—and possibly has not finished Phase II yet.
    ...
    Dmitriev, who spoke with a Moscow-based Washington Post reporter, also said that data from Phase I and Phase II trials will be published later this month—as the vaccine is being distributed to citizens.
    Yeah, distributing the vaccine before the results of early trials are even published is not a good sign.

  4. - Top - End - #904
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    For another pebble in the anecdote, not data, but still worrying pile.

    Earlier this year the local paper did an article series on the kids having their lungs wrecked by vaping. They decided to do a follow up to be published this weekend. Three of the kids they'd interviewed were killed by Covid, and they can't reach two others. So, potentially 5 out of 20 college age kids.

  5. - Top - End - #905
    Troll in the Playground
     
    Lvl 2 Expert's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Thanks for the links about the Russian vaccin. Very interesting.
    The Hindsight Awards, results: See the best movies of 1999!

  6. - Top - End - #906
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    Kobold

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Xyril View Post
    I mean, the article said in parallel with mass production, not mass inoculation, didn't it? So they're not exactly gambling with human lives--if phase III testing reveals that the vaccine is ineffective or has serious side effects, then they've wasted the money/resources used to prepare all those doses of vaccine. If further testing pans out, then they've gotten a head start on mass immunizations.
    I think it's clear from the article that phase 3 testing, if it can be called that, is going to happen in parallel with mass distribution. There's also a worrying lack of mention of which reputable agency is going to monitor and publish the results of that testing.

    I would say more, but forum rules. Suffice to say, I for one won't be lining up for this shot.
    "None of us likes to be hated, none of us likes to be shunned. A natural result of these conditions is, that we consciously or unconsciously pay more attention to tuning our opinions to our neighbor’s pitch and preserving his approval than we do to examining the opinions searchingly and seeing to it that they are right and sound." - Mark Twain

  7. - Top - End - #907
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    MonkGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    it remains just another corona virus, which is the strain of viruses that include the ... flu.
    Not only is that not true, you've been told on several occasions that it's not true. Why do you keep saying this?

  8. - Top - End - #908
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by sihnfahl View Post
    Based off what? There literally is no evidence the vaccine works other than their assertion it works.

    That's like trusting a car manufacturer saying their collision safety systems work to protect you ... but they won't show you the crash test footage that proves it. Or the conditions they tested the collision systems. But hey, buy the car!
    Based off the fact that most vaccines that don't meet approval still "work", just with problems. They may provide immunity in a lower percentage of the population than was hoped, or have significant side effects in some portion of the population, even if that portion is very small. Having a vaccine be completely ineffective is quite a rare occurrence. They're clearly putting in genuine effort into getting a working vaccine, even if they're bypassing safety checks. I doubt they'd roll out a vaccine this early without some evidence that it works, because nobody else is approaching that point, so there isn't pressure for them to roll out an ineffective vaccine when they could just keep trying for one that actually works, and still be the first ones to have made a vaccine a few months from now.

    There's strong reason to suspect it won't match ethical standards, but no reason to suspect it won't do any better than saline solution. The best solution for Russia here is to have a working vaccine, so it makes sense to assume that's what they're aiming for, even if they're taking shortcuts to get there. And, might I add, every clinical test I've heard of from the countries that are doing the proper checks suggests that their vaccines are provoking the right kind of immune response. That isn't direct evidence for the Russian vaccine, true, but it does suggest that our methods for making vaccines are broadly effective against this particular virus, so it doesn't exactly strain credulity that a vaccine that's rushed out will still provide a measure of protection.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

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  9. - Top - End - #909
    Ettin in the Playground
     
    Rockphed's Avatar

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    For another pebble in the anecdote, not data, but still worrying pile.

    Earlier this year the local paper did an article series on the kids having their lungs wrecked by vaping. They decided to do a follow up to be published this weekend. Three of the kids they'd interviewed were killed by Covid, and they can't reach two others. So, potentially 5 out of 20 college age kids.
    Which I think is more pebbles on the "vaping is possibly more dangerous than smoking" pile than the "covid is super dangerous" pile.
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    Rockphed said it well.
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    We should change the collective noun for crocodiles to "an abundance of crocodiles".
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  10. - Top - End - #910
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    I think it's clear from the article that phase 3 testing, if it can be called that, is going to happen in parallel with mass distribution. There's also a worrying lack of mention of which reputable agency is going to monitor and publish the results of that testing.
    Thanks for the correction. The first time I skimmed the The Guardian article, my brain must have skipped the second part where it said "mass production and mass immunisation."

    I still think that, if the country has the resources for it, mass production concurrent with testing could potentially be a smart move, since it could potentially eliminate that lag time between Phase III approval and deployment, but it's harder for me to think of a scenario where mass deployment before testing could be justifiable. Particularly since, with the right policies in place, the cost in human lives and health can be substantially mitigated, at the cost of economic damage. The risks posed by sending out a dangerous vaccine are obvious, but even sending out a benign but ineffective vaccine would pose a serious danger if people stop practicing other safeguards, thinking that they're immune, or that that the risk has been reduced enough that lockdowns are no longer worth the tradeoffs.

    Then again, it's Russia--the place where the fake headline "Putin sends tigers into the street to enforce quarantine" wasn't immediately deemed ridiculous. It could very well be that individuals doing their own risk/benefit analysis isn't the main driver of group behavior anyway, and unjustified faith in an ineffective vaccine won't actually move the needle much.

  11. - Top - End - #911
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    I doubt they'd roll out a vaccine this early without some evidence that it works
    If you'll reread monomer's post above yours, you will see that they haven't completed either of their very limited Phase I studies. They have no evidence that this works at all.

  12. - Top - End - #912
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    DruidGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    I'd be really dubious about the Russian claims. Not only are they skipping phase 3 as has been mentioned but they have refused to share data on the trials, unlike any other country. Even China is sharing its data. Plus it has only been a few weeks since they were caught trying to hack into other countries vaccine research in an attempt to steal it. That doesn't strike me as the actions of someone who is confident that their vaccine is ready to go.

  13. - Top - End - #913
    Ettin in the Playground
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    Feb 2013

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    As mentioned, they haven't finished the first couple Phase I trials and are completely skipping Phases II and III. You couldn't pay me enough to try that drug.

  14. - Top - End - #914
    Bugbear in the Playground
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Xyril View Post
    Thanks for the correction. The first time I skimmed the The Guardian article, my brain must have skipped the second part where it said "mass production and mass immunisation."

    I still think that, if the country has the resources for it, mass production concurrent with testing could potentially be a smart move, since it could potentially eliminate that lag time between Phase III approval and deployment
    IIRC bill gates was financing some factories for promising candidates. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sm-mass-output seems to mention it (haven't properly read it)

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