The Corona Virus

[Bartmanhomer]

I heard that the Corona Virus is a new virus. It affects by eating animal products that are not cooked properly. That what I heard about this new virus. What're your thoughts on this new virus?

[Kaptin Keen]

It's .. the flu. Like all the other flu's the world has been panicking over, it's totally harmless to the vast majority of everyone - but if you're old and/or infirm, maybe be a little more careful than usual.

[Keltest]

It's .. the flu. Like all the other flu's the world has been panicking over, it's totally harmless to the vast majority of everyone - but if you're old and/or infirm, maybe be a little more careful than usual.

This is basically my understanding as well. Wash your hands, talk to a doctor if you feel sick, all the basic precautions. If you catch it, most likely youre going to have a rough week while you work your way through the symptoms, but as long as you don't already have, say, a lung weakness or something and you take care of yourself its not really going to hurt you in the long run.

And as far as uncooked animal products... You really shouldn't be eating undercooked meat anyway, but for other reasons. The coronavirus doesn't spread through uncooked meat, specifically.

[warmachine]

Think of a bad flu season but ten times worse. Covid-19 is like Influenza as it makes people bed-ridden and can kill the elderly. Trouble is, this one's novel to humans, so there's no vaccines for any of its strains, immune systems haven't adapted, and it's more contagious. Expect your workplace to be undermanned for a few months and hospitals and morgues to be overloaded. And a global recession.

[Alias]

It's .. the flu.

So was the 1918 pandemic that killed 20-50 million people, more than the WWI itself (though that war helped the spread of the flu along). Any read up on the history of that event should cut short any comfort in the phrase, "It's just the flu."

[Draconi Redfir]

So was the 1918 pandemic that killed 20-50 million people, more than the WWI itself (though that war helped the spread of the flu along). Any read up on the history of that event should cut short any comfort in the phrase, "It's just the flu."

the flu in 2020 is a lot more trivial then the flu in 1918 though. medical science has come very far since then.


For me, i'm not worried. from what I've heard it's only had what, 2% mortality rate? it's like bottom of the list in terms of deadly active diseases right now.

Worst I've heard is a rumor that it sterilizes infected men, but this was from someone who already believed it was a bioweapon, so i'd take that with a grain of salt.

[Peelee]

the flu in 2020 is a lot more trivial then the flu in 1918 though. medical science has come very far since then.


For me, i'm not worried. from what I've heard it's only had what, 2% mortality rate? it's like bottom of the list in terms of deadly active diseases right now.

Worst I've heard is a rumor that it sterilizes infected men, but this was from someone who already believed it was a bioweapon, so i'd take that with a grain of salt.

Influenza has a 0.1% mortality rate. 2% is an order of magnitude larger. That's pretty darn notable.

[BeerMug Paladin]

Somehow I didn't expect to see "It's just the flu" here. I guess that was a bit much to expect.

But yes, the symptoms are flu-like. Other than the much better possibility that you may die. It can kill people who otherwise seem healthy and that's something to make sense being concerned about.

[halfeye]

It's going to be rougher than the flu, and then it probably won't come back for a long while, because it probably can't change it's coat like colds and flu can.

[Rynjin]

the flu in 2020 is a lot more trivial then the flu in 1918 though. medical science has come very far since then.


For me, i'm not worried. from what I've heard it's only had what, 2% mortality rate? it's like bottom of the list in terms of deadly active diseases right now.

Worst I've heard is a rumor that it sterilizes infected men, but this was from someone who already believed it was a bioweapon, so i'd take that with a grain of salt.

My understanding is that has "only" a 2% mortality rate but is highly infectious and has a long enough incubation period that early detection is difficult, aiding its spread.

For perspective, if it infects somewhere on the order of 1 million people worldwide (not unlikely given the current rate of spread) that's already 20, 000 people dead.

[warty goblin]

It's going to be rougher than the flu, and then it probably won't come back for a long while, because it probably can't change it's coat like colds and flu can.

That's not clear yet; the common cold is also a coronavirus so it's not out of the question that COVID-19 has, or will mutate into having, a similar ability to reinfect. IIRC there's some evidence that it can reinfect people already, although this may be limited to the already severely immuno-compromised.

[NotASpiderSwarm]

Yeah, "Just the flu" really only works if you're one of the people who gets food poisoning and assumes it's the flu. The way I've heard to tell the difference? If you're sick and in bed, and someone put $1000 on your doorstep, would you get up to get the money? If you would, it's not the flu.

To go back to the OP, COVID-19 is bad. It's not panic-level at this point, but you do want to be cautious and prepared, the way you should be for any severe flu season. Don't shake hands. Wash your hands regularly, with soap. Don't touch your mucus membranes(nose, mouth, eyes). Use alcohol-based hand sanitizer when you can't wash your hands. Keep a decent amount of food and water in your house(always do this). Don't go in public if you're sick(to protect others from what you have). If you are sick, cough into your elbow, not your hand, and wear a mask in public. If you're NOT sick, quit buying up the masks, doctors and sick people need them.

And GET YOUR FLU SHOT.

[Liang]

Worth mentioning the 2% mortality rate was typically a simplified number based on deaths:cases. If you look only at closed cases (deaths:recovered), the percentage is 6%. As the virus spreads to countries with poorer healthcare systems (lack of detection, lack of prevention, lack of recovery), I think the mortality rate could be anywhere between 3-4%. Far different from the flu's .1%.

[Kaptin Keen]

When this is all over, and it is - once again - not a big deal, just remember I said: It's just the flu.

Just like the other giant flu scares, SARS, MERS, pig flu, chicken flu, whatever flu - this one also isn't anything at all to get worked up about. It's just ... the flu.

That's not to say that the legendary A-PRIME flu (the one Stephen King describes wiping out humanity in The Stand) isn't an actual possibility. It's just not this one.

[Peelee]

When this is all over, and it is - once again - not a big deal, just remember I said: It's just the flu.

Just like the other giant flu scares, SARS, MERS, pig flu, chicken flu, whatever flu - this one also isn't anything at all to get worked up about. It's just ... the flu.

That's not to say that the legendary A-PRIME flu (the one Stephen King describes wiping out humanity in The Stand) isn't an actual possibility. It's just not this one.

Dude, nobody is saying this is the end of days. We're just saying this is worse than the flu, and giving actual metrics to support our claims. Saying "it's just the flu" is incorrect, as has been demonstrated.

[NotASpiderSwarm]

When this is all over, and it is - once again - not a big deal, just remember I said: It's just the flu.

Just like the other giant flu scares, SARS, MERS, pig flu, chicken flu, whatever flu - this one also isn't anything at all to get worked up about. It's just ... the flu.

That's not to say that the legendary A-PRIME flu (the one Stephen King describes wiping out humanity in The Stand) isn't an actual possibility. It's just not this one.

80,000 americans died of the flu in 2018.

[Liang]

Just the flu. Let's hope not.

What was it, 42.9 million estimated cases in the US during 18-19 flu season. Remember, that's the flu which has vaccines. COVID-19 does not have any yet. If it ever infects that many people anywhere you'd see 858,000-1.7 million deaths with a 2-4% mortality rate.

It's best to be a bit more cautious rather than write it up as "just the flu."

[Kaptin Keen]

80,000 americans died of the flu in 2018.

My mother died of the flu in 2019. To be precise, on december 6. 2019 at 12 past 7 in the evening, my mother breathed her last due to a flu infection.

Anything else?

This is still just the flu. It is not any more deadly than other flu's. Or ... maybe it's 0.1-0.2% to your average, healthy adult vs. a normal mortality rate of 0.1%. For the elderly, weak or those suffering from respiratory impairment - like asthma, and I have asthma - it's quite a lot higher, around +15%.

Which is also normal for the flu, if maybe slightly higher.

Now, you really shouldn't ever listen to anyone giving any sort of opinion on medical matters unless they're doctors. And I'm not. But this whole scare is entirely out of proportion. When almost 5000 people are locked on a ship for a month and a half, and two died (someone told me 10, but 2 was the only number I could find in the press), that's .. so many things. It's a high enough population to be statistically significant - and it's statistically significant for a very credible worst case scenario.

It's just ..... the flu.

Oh, and here's something else. This is at least the third time the WHO and other authorities have kicked up a major scare over nothing. They will be embarassed about it. And sooner or later - and I'm just going to say, it's going to happen this time - they'll settle on how convenient it will be to claim they averted disaster by firm, fast action ... rather than admit they were wrong, again, and it was a huge mass hysteria over nothing at all.

[factotum]

And GET YOUR FLU SHOT.

Pretty sure that won't have any effect whatsoever on Covid-19, it's too new.

[Kelb_Panthera]

"Normal flu," like the ones that have gone around for the past few decades, are like that thug from highschool who thought he was tough. He'll rough ya up a bit but unless you're particularly weak (immunocompromised) you'll likely be alright enough to keep going to work/school (not that it's a good idea).

"Kung Flu (N Covid-19)" is like the Jackie Chan. It's gonna lay you out but it -probably- won't kill you unless your luck runs short or you're already in bad shape. Either way you're takin' a few days off and might end up in the hospital.

@OP

It's actually fairly unlikely that it came from undercooked bat soup, as was first reported. The structure of the virus and its point of origin very strongly suggest that it was actually an engineered virus from a disease research lab that experienced a containment breech. As a proponent of hanlon's razor, I'm inclined to believe that it was most likely a simple lab accident, after all it's not so uncommon for pathogens to be engineered for testing on lab animals in order to research potential pathologies that may arise in nature. There -are- some darker theories floating around the internet but there's no substantial proof to any of them as yet.

In any case, quarantine efforts have so far been of limited effectiveness so it's probably a good idea to get one or two weeks of supplies together in case of infrastructure disruption. That said, it's very important to avoid panic and -only- get a few weeks of supplies so that your neighbors can do the same. Most modern societies are stable enough that such disruptions will likely be short and the last thing anyone needs is panicked people fighting over supplies above and beyond what's likely to be needed.


Note: I am not a doctor, nor am I a disaster relief worker. I just believe myself to be reasonbly well-informed and am repeating what I understand to be the facts on the ground and recommended course of action. If an actual doctor or disaster worker says different, listen to them instead of me.

[Mr Blobby]

RE: Origins. Strongly, strongly disagree with above poster. Chances are it came from Wuhan's 'wet markets'; aka where a large amount of live animals are all in close proximity to each other and with people. That in this close proximity, it managed to jump species. Throw in poorer hygiene levels, the humid nature of the region and a high population density - it's a perfect incubator for such things - such as 'swine flu' and 'bird flu'. The vector in this case is believed to be the humble pangolin; the funkly-looking mammal which unfortunately is desired for their scale-plates and meat in parts of Asia.

The 'scary thing' about this is that we have no vaccine and no obvious treatment path apart from palliative [at the moment]. We're not used to the idea that there are things the medical people cannot treat. In this respect, we're feeling very slightly the fear our great-grandparents felt every time they heard about things like TB, smallpox and suchlike.

The fatality rate at this moment appears to be around 3%. Plus; this may be a high-ball as some people will be self-treating at home unknown by authorities. But minus; this 3% is from people getting good medical treatment. Therefore, it could get a lot worse if a large spike of serious cases overloads our medical systems.

People have mentioned the Spanish Flu of '18 - '19. That disease was different to Coronavirus in one important respect; the former caused an 'immune system overload' which meant that it often killed the fittest in society, not the weakest. This thing, on the other hand is rather traditional; so far, it seems the ones who are dying from it are mainly the elderly, the immuno-suppressed and the chronically sick. The kinds of people who'd find the 'normal flu' a risk to life [which is why they get free flu jabs in the UK]. While their are outlyers, it would appear that if you're youngish and in decent health, even if you caught it your survival rate will be a lot higher than 97%.

The WHO and the like are worried about this because it holds the promise of getting bad; particularly in nations with large levels of 'at risk groups' [like the 'elderly nations' of W. Europe and Japan] or ones with poor medical systems. The name of the game is 'stall'; stop the thing getting to the stage of a pandemic at least into the late spring, ideally into the summer where by then we - hopefully - would have treatments etc coming on-line. The other thing I'm sure they're worried about but are keeping quiet about is the risk of mutation - that through a freak of nature somebody already with something catches Coronavirus too and it combines into an even worse strain. Therefore, less people who catch Coronavirus equals less chance of this 'Patient Zero'.

The fact-based medical advice at the moment appears to simply utilise basic personal hygiene - wash hands properly and regularly, sneeze into a handkerchief if needs be and if you've been touching 'unknown items' [say public door handles or stuff being touched by others] either wash and/or disinfect hands before eating, drinking or touching your face/mouth. Basically, the same stuff the public health people tell us every winter.

Oh, and the paper masks are almost useless for infectees, and utterly useless to the uninfected. At best, it's a bit of "health theatre"; makes people feel safe, but is about as effective a plague doctor costume or a magic amulet. At worst, it can make things worse by lulling people into a false sense of security.

[Keltest]

Pretty sure that won't have any effect whatsoever on Covid-19, it's too new.

Getting your flu shot will help prevent you from getting the ordinary flu that likes to pop up as the temperature changes, which keeps you out of the doctor's office, which frees up time and resources for them to treat other things.

[Brother Oni]

Oh, and here's something else. This is at least the third time the WHO and other authorities have kicked up a major scare over nothing. They will be embarassed about it. And sooner or later - and I'm just going to say, it's going to happen this time - they'll settle on how convenient it will be to claim they averted disaster by firm, fast action ... rather than admit they were wrong, again, and it was a huge mass hysteria over nothing at all.

Really? I didn't realise you were an expert in the WHO guidelines for the management of pandemic influenza.

As Mr Blobby said*, the WHO plan for worst case and it's better to advise caution than blithely say 'carry on as normal' and potentially cause an epidemic escalate into a pandemic.

From a risk management perspective, compare the options and outcomes:

1. Do nothing and it blows over as a minor incident
2. Do nothing and it escalates into a pandemic
3. Mitigate the risk and it blows over as a minor incident
4. Mitigate the risk and the actions prevents it escalating
5. Mitigate the risk and it threatens to escalates into a pandemic anyway

You're just hoping it's outcome 1 while outcome 2 is blatantly undesirable; from a public health point of view, the mitigation that has been put into place has been deemed to be acceptable (while I don't think the WHO has published its risk assessment for this outbreak yet, I've found a response review for the 2009 outbreak: link).

Outcomes 3+4 are desirable, while with outcome 5, they can escalate the response. They can't do this with action 2 as it's too late by this point - the horse has already bolted from the stable.

In any case, it's not the WHO causing mass hysteria - it's the various news agencies and social media, which necessitates a response from the various public health bodies. On a 'normal' news cycle, announcements from the WHO (and they make regular ones) don't even make a blip in the headlines.


*I'd never thought I'd be typing that in my lifetime.

[Bartmanhomer]

The Corona Virus is something we all should worry about and it's not just a flu.

[Divayth Fyr]

Currently people worrying too much is becoming a big issue, with masks and disinfectants jumping in price and becoming less and less available for people who absolutely need them, unlike those who are getting scared.

Rushing to stores to clean out their shelves is also more likely to help the store owners than anyone else.

[Vinyadan]

Rushing to stores to clean out their shelves is also more likely to help the store owners than anyone else.

Especially if you use alcohol to do that!


Also: it's Corprusarium time! =D

[Brother Oni]

RE: Origins. Strongly, strongly disagree with above poster. Chances are it came from Wuhan's 'wet markets'; aka where a large amount of live animals are all in close proximity to each other and with people. That in this close proximity, it managed to jump species. Throw in poorer hygiene levels, the humid nature of the region and a high population density - it's a perfect incubator for such things - such as 'swine flu' and 'bird flu'. The vector in this case is believed to be the humble pangolin; the funkly-looking mammal which unfortunately is desired for their scale-plates and meat in parts of Asia.

I can attest to Chinese meat markets. A long time ago, I was taken to the Tai Po Hui wet market in Hong Kong to buy some chicken.

We went up to a stall and selected a pair of chickens from wire crates, full of chickens, stacked on top of each other. The chickens then had their throats slit and while they were still flapping, were both dumped into a ~220 litre plastic drum, a large wooden board placed on top and a weight added.

Once the flapping and banging had stopped, the chickens were recovered and taken off to a steam room, where they were defeathered and cleaned in short order. The carcasses was then brought back to the stall and then butchered on a wooden chopping board with the cuts put into polystyrene boxes for us to take away.

While Tai Po Hui market is a lot different now (at least before the protests), I doubt the hygiene is better than described in mainland China.

Currently people worrying too much is becoming a big issue, with masks and disinfectants jumping in price and becoming less and less available for people who absolutely need them, unlike those who are getting scared.

Rushing to stores to clean out their shelves is also more likely to help the store owners than anyone else.

In the UK, there has been a noticeable effect on the construction industry, where people have been buying dust masks instead because the shops have run out of surgical ones, leaving construction workers unable to obtain their necessary PPE.

It's particularly annoying as dust masks are even less effective than surgical masks at protection.

[Divayth Fyr]

In the UK, there has been a noticeable effect on the construction industry, where people have been buying dust masks instead because the shops have run out of surgical ones, leaving construction workers unable to obtain their necessary PPE.

It's particularly annoying as dust masks are even less effective than surgical masks at protection.

We have the same situation - all possible masks are either sold out, or sold 10-20+ times their usual price (at best). It has reached the point hospitals stopped getting the masks they were supposed to, since the supplier either cannot get them at all, or the producent increased the price so much, they can't afford to.

[Xyril]

Influenza has a 0.1% mortality rate. 2% is an order of magnitude larger. That's pretty darn notable.

Also, most of the stuff that isn't on "it's like bottom of the list in terms of deadly active diseases right now"--as Draconi put it--tends to be easier contain specifically because of their higher mortality rate, coupled with what's generally a much shorter presymptomatic contagious period.

Something like ebola kills most of the people it infects, spreads somewhat less easily (direct contact with fluids), and doesn't really become contagious until symptoms appear--and these symptoms are generally VERY obvious to people in a region where the virus is active. This makes the disease comparatively easy to contain.

In contrast, stuff in the general flu-like respiratory disease family tends to spread more easily (it's generally easier to come into accidental contact with expectorate from a cough or sneeze than a fluid that came out of somebody with a hemorrhagic fever) and generally is contagious before symptoms appear. On top of that, early symptoms are very similar to allergies or less serious viral infections like the common cold--or for that matter, just being alive. After all people sneeze all the time, and sometimes the very first symptoms is that you start doing it more often. Plus, there are folks like Draconi Redfir who have a lot of faith in their immune systems and apparently wouldn't be too worried even if they knew they had some sort of SARS. This all adds up to a situation where a lot of people just go about their business trying to tough things out for a long time--all the while spreading the disease--before they finally self-quarantine or go to the hospital.

[Xyril]

[After offering long opinion on medical matters]
Now, you really shouldn't ever listen to anyone giving any sort of opinion on medical matters unless they're doctors. And I'm not. But [I continue to offer strong opinions on medical matters

First, I am sorry for your loss, and I commend you for not becoming overly sensitized to a risk just because it happened to strike your family personally. Kudos to you for pointing out that we live with other, more dangerous things all the time, and that we shouldn't necessarily fixate on the ones that make the news.

Oh, and here's something else. This is at least the third time the WHO and other authorities have kicked up a major scare over nothing.

Could you please share citations for the first two times WHO "embarrassed" itself? I know you're not a medical doctor, but since you're offering opinions, it would help if you could be specific about what you're offering your opinion on.

I mean, are you talking about the ebola scare a few years back, because I am fairly sure that particular crisis was in what Brother Oni articulated as category 4: Something that didn't end up escalating into a global "big deal" precisely because WHO and other responsible experts recognized that it had the potential to become very bad, and the people with the power to do something about it actually listened.

They will be embarassed about it. And sooner or later - and I'm just going to say, it's going to happen this time - they'll settle on how convenient it will be to claim they averted disaster by firm, fast action ... rather than admit they were wrong, again, and it was a huge mass hysteria over nothing at all.

That's a strong prediction, Doc. Since it's so important to you that non-doctors don't offer their opinions on medical matters, I'll just limit my last opinion to life ion general. People like the ones at the WHO--you know, experts who actually give a damn--spend dedicate their whole lives to understanding something in the hopes that what they do actually makes a difference someday. And sometimes, on their very best days, they do. Most often, they work in obscurity, and sometimes they get things wrong, publicly, and people like you circle around to gloat.

Now, I don't have to tell you that it's a lot easier and a lot more fun to be the guy who throws rocks at the people who fail, rather than actually trying something and risking failure yourself. That means that you'll never have that terrible day where you have to deal with having "egg on your face," but it also means that even on your best day, the greatest impact you'll ever have is a trivial, most likely slightly negative one.