The Corona Virus

[Keltest]

I dont really want to hijack this thread with talk of student behavior except as it pertains to the virus. I think we can all agree that they will not, under any circumstances, follow the necessary steps of their own volition.

[Spacewolf]

Yup. This. Non-mask compliance is easy to spot too...

What I'm not sure of is what the "fine" should be, am not convinced an actual fine is the way to go.

Considering there was a case in the news recently of two US students getting suspended from school for posting on social media about the lack of social distancing, looks like the message schools are trying to get out is proceed as normal.

[Xyril]

I think we can all agree that they will not, under any circumstances, follow the necessary steps of their own volition.

If you're counting me among the "we all," then no.

Those the unacountable, independent frats I mentioned earlier? Not without controversy for other reasons, but in my experience the drinking aspect never got out of control (AFAIK, no alcohol poisoning deaths or alcohol-related accidental deaths for decades, if ever.) Why? The students themselves took the necessary steps. They saw themselves as people with a future, so they valued their own lives and the long-term reputation of their groups, so student leadership made it a point to promote a culture of moderate restraint so that more draconian enforcement wouldn't become necessary.

Likewise, as Spacewolf alluded to, there are in fact students out there who care about safety--arguably more than the administration at times. University administrations are a pretty diverse group, with different opinions on the credibility of expert advice and different goals. Many public universities are limited by the dictates of a state board of governors or other external body. So unsurprisingly, universities individually have had a wide range of responses in terms of the balance between caution versus business as usual, and if you spend more time trolling more local news sources or social media, you might be surprised just how often it's the young, irresponsible, untrustworthy students who are spearheading the push back against schools that are allegedly taking an unsafe approach to reopening, or even against college bars, frats, or other student-related or student-run organizations that are being unsafe.

Students are disproportionately young, meaning that they skew towards believing the experts on this particular issue, and they largely value education, meaning that on some level they understand the idea of experts having specialized knowledge that is valuable. Many live with their parents at least part of the year, and they're of the age range where their parents are near, or just getting into, the age range where risk starts increasing drastically, and many have still-living grandparents or even great-grandparents at the age of extreme risks. Those who work at least part-time disproportionately work in jobs that are high risk and considered essential--thus keeping them working even during the height of the lock down. Most of them were teens or young adults during a period where healthcare in America was the subject of great debate and scrutiny, so I'm guessing they're slightly more cognizant than most generations of students that getting sick leads to a variety of consequences beyond "Will I survive?"

Students are certainly at an age where biology and circumstances nudge them towards pushing boundaries and not quite believing in consequences, but they also have a lot of reason to about the future. On the balance, they seem to have been much more conscientious about this particular crisis than many groups of people. Speaking from a purely anecdotal perspective, I've seen one undergraduate-aged person wandering around maskless, and he seemed lazily so. I've lost count of people in other age ranges who are going around without masks, but it's been easily over a dozen instances in the last week alone, with most instances being a single person, though there were also couples that I'm counting as a single encounter. Most of these folks seem apathetic like the student, but one guy in his fifties or sixties was an aggressive no-mask evangelist.

[Forum Explorer]

I dont really want to hijack this thread with talk of student behavior except as it pertains to the virus. I think we can all agree that they will not, under any circumstances, follow the necessary steps of their own volition.

I think it's a lot more cultural dependent then you think. I mean, fraternities are really only a Western thing to my knowledge. I can imagine that people in a culture like Japan for instance, would be a lot more willing to abide by public health guidelines.

[Razade]

A brief, and not very indepth, over-look on the race for a vaccine

Moderna: Phase 3 testing
Pfizer: Phase 2 and 3 testing
AztraZeneca: Phase 2 and 3 testing
Johnson and Johnson: Phase 1 and 2 testing
Novavax: Phase 1 and 2 testing
Inovio: Phase 1 testing
Sanofi: Pre-clinical
Merck: Pre-clinical


Those are the ones I've just seen reported through legitimate channels. Quite a number and more than few moving on to human testing to boot.

[Kaptin Keen]

A brief, and not very indepth, over-look on the race for a vaccine

Moderna: Phase 3 testing
Pfizer: Phase 2 and 3 testing
AztraZeneca: Phase 2 and 3 testing
Johnson and Johnson: Phase 1 and 2 testing
Novavax: Phase 1 and 2 testing
Inovio: Phase 1 testing
Sanofi: Pre-clinical
Merck: Pre-clinical


Those are the ones I've just seen reported through legitimate channels. Quite a number and more than few moving on to human testing to boot.

Hm. I've seen at least two were in phase 4 testing. But maybe the tests were negative? I dunno, it was a while ago, so I no longer remember the source - propably some news media.

[Razade]

Hm. I've seen at least two were in phase 4 testing. But maybe the tests were negative? I dunno, it was a while ago, so I no longer remember the source - propably some news media.

I highly doubt that. Phase 4 is when it's released to the public. To be clear. It's studying the effects once it's been approved and prescribed by physicians. No vaccine, not even the dubious Russian vaccine which is skipping phase 2 and 3, is in phase 4 yet. Not only couldn't you have seen it "a while ago" you couldn't have seen it recently either. You don't cite sources anyway, but any source that's telling you they've moved a vaccine to phase anything past 3 yet isn't something you should be using as a source.

[veti]

I mean, fraternities are really only a Western thing to my knowledge.

Only an American thing, to mine. We don't have them in the UK, or at least we didn't when I was at university and I haven't heard that's changed, nor elsewhere in Europe to my knowledge.

There are some student clubs and associations of dubious reputation, but nothing comparable with the power of "frats". At least, if what I've seen in of them in movies is anything remotely like reality.

[Peelee]

Only an American thing, to mine. We don't have them in the UK, or at least we didn't when I was at university and I haven't heard that's changed, nor elsewhere in Europe to my knowledge.

There are some student clubs and associations of dubious reputation, but nothing comparable with the power of "frats". At least, if what I've seen in of them in movies is anything remotely like reality.

What you have seen of them in movies is nothing remotely like reality.

[Tvtyrant]

Only an American thing, to mine. We don't have them in the UK, or at least we didn't when I was at university and I haven't heard that's changed, nor elsewhere in Europe to my knowledge.

There are some student clubs and associations of dubious reputation, but nothing comparable with the power of "frats". At least, if what I've seen in of them in movies is anything remotely like reality.

They are a big thing in Austria, but the specifics of why are political.

[Rogar Demonblud]

What you have seen of them in movies is nothing remotely like reality.

Yeah, reality is worse. The sexual assault numbers alone are infuriating.

[Kaptin Keen]

I highly doubt that. Phase 4 is when it's released to the public. To be clear. It's studying the effects once it's been approved and prescribed by physicians. No vaccine, not even the dubious Russian vaccine which is skipping phase 2 and 3, is in phase 4 yet. Not only couldn't you have seen it "a while ago" you couldn't have seen it recently either. You don't cite sources anyway, but any source that's telling you they've moved a vaccine to phase anything past 3 yet isn't something you should be using as a source.

Yea, my bad ... what I meant was 'in human trials'.

Oh, and 'legitimate channels' also is not a source, is it???

Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e-tracker.html. You seem all bent out of shape over sources, so have one. Apparently, 7 are in human trials.

[Lvl 2 Expert]

Yea, my bad ... what I meant was 'in human trials'.

Oh, and 'legitimate channels' also is not a source, is it???

Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e-tracker.html. You seem all bent out of shape over sources, so have one. Apparently, 7 are in human trials.

A brief, and not very indepth, over-look on the race for a vaccine

Moderna: Phase 3 testing
Pfizer: Phase 2 and 3 testing
AztraZeneca: Phase 2 and 3 testing
Johnson and Johnson: Phase 1 and 2 testing
Novavax: Phase 1 and 2 testing
Inovio: Phase 1 testing
Sanofi: Pre-clinical
Merck: Pre-clinical


Those are the ones I've just seen reported through legitimate channels. Quite a number and more than few moving on to human testing to boot.

To clear up confusion about terminology: pre-clinical testing means "before human trials", so laboratory and animal tests. Phase 1, 2 and 3 are all phases of clinical testing, human trials. The terminology has been consistent for a while, to the point where the companies themselves today often actually think in two broader fases rather than three, but they still call the exploratory phase phase 1 and 2a and the confirmatory phase phase 2b and 3, because those are the known terms. Phase 4 is after market testing, so basically the collection of data from real world application. An example would be that if you tell your doctor you took a medicine and then a few days later started coughing a lot they'll call that in and it will eventually appear on the package leaflet as a side effect that one in every 10,000 patients experience.


The important part here is: you're both trying to say the same thing, but Razade is using the known standardized terms that everyone regularly following the industry uses. So to keep the discussion intelligible it's probably better to copy their language than to argue against it.




EDIT: I shouldn't have said anything. Turns out those two were just looking to go at it.

[Razade]

Yea, my bad ... what I meant was 'in human trials'.

Oh, and 'legitimate channels' also is not a source, is it???

Here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e-tracker.html. You seem all bent out of shape over sources, so have one. Apparently, 7 are in human trials.

Phases 1, 2 and 3 all are human trials. So anything you've heard from Phase 1 to the most advanced are all human trial.

No, "legitimate channels" isn't a source but if someone asked me where I got the information I'd have provided a link (here: https://youtu.be/gJyp4Vly1U4?t=239 ) instead of insisting that I don't provide sources. Which you've done. In this thread. It's important because when others have questioned you on where you're getting your information, and gone looking, the numbers you provide either don't add up or you don't always present them fairly. I am not saying you're doing that intentionally but we all make mistakes which is why it's good to provide the resources you're getting your information from, so everyone can actually go and verify it instead of just taking your word for it. A good case for it is.

1. You presented wrong information on Clinical trials. Not just with Phase 4 not being a thing, but in asserting that what you actually meant was human trials which all but two of my examples were.
2. The source you linked just in your last post contradicts you. The article you posted doesn't actually say seven vaccines are in human trials. The word seven doesn't even appear in the article at all. I did a ctrl+f just to double check in case I missed it on a read through. It does say twenty nine are. Which is more than the 6 I listed that are in human trial. Don't take my word for it though. It's literally the first paragraph on the page.

Researchers around the world are developing more than 165 vaccines against the coronavirus, and 29 vaccines are in human trials. Vaccines typically require years of research and testing before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to produce a safe and effective vaccine by next year.

Which, if you'd not posted the link, I wouldn't have known. That's 21 more than I thought were in human trials and if I'd just taken your word for it without a source I wouldn't have known beyond my own source which is clearly only the tip of the iceberg. So I learned something even if you weren't accurately relaying information. Because you cited a source. Which is why I am "bent out of shape" over it.

The article also goes on to actually list what the stages of clinical trial are and when human testing begins. Only Preclinical and Phase 0 (which is often skipped but it exists) have no human trials. Phases 1, 2, and 3 have human trials to a lesser or greater degree. Phase 4...technically has human trials too but we generally call those patients.

[Kaptin Keen]

Ok, 7 are in phase 3. 1 is approved for limited use. I don't get bent out of shape about semantics, which - I'll admit - occasionally leads to confusion and misunderstanding, {scrubbed}.

And if you need a source for the source in the source, what I'm referencing is the nice little infographic right at the top.

[Razade]

Please stop trying to attribute motives to me where there are none. You can't read minds. Or at least, you can't read my mind with enough accuracy to keep doing it, because you haven't gotten it right yet. You might be able to read other minds. That's not here or there though. This isn't about semantics. Those Phases have fairly precise usages that are important in this discussion. It's not even that I'm trying to prove you wrong. You are wrong, in this instance, and the more you try to clarify what you actually meant just demonstrates why people ask for sources of you. The more you dig in (and I'd argue alter what you actually meant to be more right) has made you more wrong. Like each time, without fail.

[Kaptin Keen]

Let me try to explain something.

This may be wrong:



But I'm not. I am right that this source says 7 phase three vaccines, 1 approved for limited use.

I have at no point been wrong about anything. I mean, I did call the virus 'just the flu' - and while it's definitely substantially worse than just the flu, it remains just another corona virus, which is the strain of viruses that include the common cold, and flu. I could even have given a source for that, because I got that from a news article; that this was a flu disease.

Nothing I've said here is of my own accord - everything, without exception, has some sort of source, or experts with the same view, or examples somewhere on the globe. I'm not wrong about anything. There is however nothing you agree with, but that's very much a different matter.

[Razade]

Let me try to explain something.

This may be wrong:



But I'm not. I am right that this source says 7 phase three vaccines, 1 approved for limited use.

I can't see the image. Imgur doesn't allow putting pictures on sites anymore. And this is after a number of other claims. So you are now, not wrong.

I have at no point been wrong about anything.

You were wrong when you said that you'd read that there are vaccines in Phase 4 or you were at least wrong to report it as if you had. You might have read it, but they were wrong and you were wrong to parrot it without doing the legwork in finding out if it were correct or not. You were wrong that there were only 7 vaccines in human testing. So you've been wrong. You then, after both assertions, said what you'd actually meant the whole time was there were 7 in Phase 3. Cool, you finally got to the right answer. Not even by semantics. There are 21 more vaccines in human testing. You were wrong by more than half.

I mean, I did call the virus 'just the flu' - and while it's definitely substantially worse than just the flu, it remains just another corona virus, which is the strain of viruses that include the common cold, and flu. I could even have given a source for that, because I got that from a news article; that this was a flu disease.

That's not what you meant when you said it was just a flu. That's not even a game I'm willing to entertain. You know, we all know, what you meant by it because you proceeded to argue that it wasn't that dangerous of a virus and you held that line for quite some time. To claim otherwise, to say now after all of that what you really meant is that it's a flu because it's a corona virus is revisionist at best. I'm not going to go back and quote mine you but I could.

Nothing I've said here is of my own accord - everything, without exception, has some sort of source, or experts with the same view, or examples somewhere on the globe. I'm not wrong about anything. There is however nothing you agree with, but that's very much a different matter.

No one is responsible for what you write here except you. No one is holding a gun to your head telling you to write what you write. You and you are alone are responsible for vetting your sources. You were wrong, demonstrably wrong, about a number of things and your continued attempts to somehow cast aspersions on my, and others, motivations is transparent. That you simply can't be wrong, that it's somehow my problem because I simply don't want to agree with you, is frankly insulting and just more of you trying to read motives into my disagreement so that you can continue to believe you're not wrong.

I'm out.

[AMX]

I have at no point been wrong about anything. I mean, I did call the virus 'just the flu' - and while it's definitely substantially worse than just the flu, it remains just another corona virus, which is the strain of viruses that include the common cold, and flu.

But... the flu is not a coronavirus.

Also, only some "common colds" are coronavirus - most are rhinovirus.

[Kaptin Keen]

But... the flu is not a coronavirus.

Also, only some "common colds" are coronavirus - most are rhinovirus.

Yes, that's quite right. I think at the very start of the crisis, the journalists were slightly hazy on the details - and I knew no better. I'll gladly admit I made that statement as to say 'there's no cause for panic' - and while covid-19 is certainly more serious than I thought, the reason why I took that stance is still valid: We have solid proof (as solid as is possible at this stage) that less extreme measures could have worked. Potentially. They are certainly working in Denmark, and in other places - while, conversely, failing spectacularly to work in Sweden. But Sweden does not in and of itself invalidate the point.

Another thing: While I still feel less extreme measures were the best course of action, all things considered - I now think it was prudent of governments to take as few chances as humanly possible. While very few restrictions work fine for now in Denmark, the initial firm stance and shut down may be why they are working. Sometimes a bit of a fright is needed to ... promote awareness. A wake-up call, if you will.

But all of that is speculation, we have no control group to compare with. Unless you consider Sweden the control group - but I don't think that's really the case. The swedes had the right idea but executed it wrong.

That's not what you meant when you said it was just a flu.

Please stop trying to attribute motives to me where there are none. You can't read minds.

Neither can you.

I'm out.

This isn't going anywhere, so I frankly agree.

[Ibrinar]

Guys (well mostly Razade at the moment I guess) he is someone that seriously says things like "I have at no point been wrong about anything." he is a lost cause and you won't get anything but frustration from talking with him or from reading his posts. Well ymmv of course and it is your time, but the last round just ended (maybe not time wise but there weren't that many posts inbetween) and talking about his failings distracts from the main topic a bit.

[Rogar Demonblud]

The Ignore List is a thing.

[Razade]

Guys (well mostly Razade at the moment I guess) he is someone that seriously says things like "I have at no point been wrong about anything." he is a lost cause and you won't get anything but frustration from talking with him or from reading his posts. Well ymmv of course and it is your time, but the last round just ended (maybe not time wise but there weren't that many posts inbetween) and talking about his failings distracts from the main topic a bit.

I don't really have conversations or debates to try and change the person's mind I'm debating. Especially not when they utter things like "I haven't been wrong because I'm just reporting on sources and the sources might be wrong" or in one post say that COVID is a corona virus like the flu and then in the literal next post after they're called out for the flu not being a corona virus acts like they knew it all along and it was the experts that were confused and it's why he was making the claim. There's no hope for that.

If, however, it was just that person and myself then I wouldn't have the conversation. But this is a public forum where other people might come in and read things and they may actually feel the way Keen does but not actually feel like they simply cannot be wrong. They may actually be willing to look at the facts and change their mind based on what they're seeing and if all they had to go off of was Keen trying to assert that there are vaccines in Phase 4 or that COVID isn't nearly as deadly as people think it is or that masks aren't important as he's claimed in the past or that there are only seven vaccines in human testing or...ya know. Just take your pick. That's all they'd have though and it'd confirm their own wrongthink and that poses a danger to the people around them in a very real and meaningful way. If they see no push back, or push back with no real evidence, then they'll feel secure in what they're doing and I want to combat that sort of wrongthink wherever it crops up. People's lives are on the line and that's not just an emotional appeal. COVID kills people.

The discussion, the sources, the debate, is for them. I can't change Keen's mind, no one here can either. But I might be able to sway someone else by addressing Keen's arguments and showing why he's wrong and where he's wrong. While Keen thinks he can read minds, or acts like he can, and wants to accuse it of me, I can actually read what he's posted and respond to the things he's said and any person that's been reading along can as well. I leave it up to them to determine if I've argued fairly and come to their own conclusions.

That's the point of debate.

[Ibrinar]

Fair enough, as I said your time.

Russia just approved their vaccine btw.https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...vladimir-putin

The development was hailed by Putin as evidence of Russia’s scientific prowess, but the truncated testing regime has raised eyebrows elsewhere for skipping so-called phase 3 large-scale safety trials, which usually take months. Instead, phase 3 trials will be conducted in parallel with mass production of the vaccine, including in Brazil.

While the approval paves the way for mass inoculations in Russia, which has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, it is unlikely to accelerate the pace of efforts to produce a vaccine for use in the west, where licensing requirements are more stringent. Russia has registered 897,599 coronavirus cases, the fourth highest number of cases in the world, and 15,131 deaths.

Well that is a gamble we will see how it works out.

[sihnfahl]

Russia just approved their vaccine btw.

I have not found any safety or efficacy data associated with their phase IIb either!

Compare that to things like AstraZeneca + Oxfords collaboration in Phase III. Details. Replicability. Validation. We can see the safety and efficacy.

It's a move of desperation, trying to come out on 'top' in the pursuit for an end to this madness.

From a slightly morbid perspective, going to wonder how the anti-vaxxers will try to spin Gates being involved in the Russia vaccine...

[Vinyadan]

I have not found any safety or efficacy data associated with their phase IIb either!

Compare that to things like AstraZeneca + Oxfords collaboration in Phase III. Details. Replicability. Validation. We can see the safety and efficacy.

It's a move of desperation, trying to come out on 'top' in the pursuit for an end to this madness.

From a slightly morbid perspective, going to wonder how the anti-vaxxers will try to spin Gates being involved in the Russia vaccine...

I don't think it is, although the doubts are legitimate. For the rest, forum rules.

[Strigon]

Regarding the Russian vaccine, keep in mind we have extremely high standards for a vaccine. We have to prove - beyond any plausible doubt - that it is highly effective and has virtually no risk. It also has to be fiscally sound for the company making it, and then go through rounds of approval and production. Many vaccines that may have been a net positive for humanity have been abandoned because of these high standards.

Now, of course, I'm not in favour of abandoning or relaxing these standards - they've also kept away vaccines that would have proved useless, draining vital resources, or else have actively harmed those who were injected.
What I am saying is that I think the vaccine is more likely to do good than harm. Should it have been approved so quickly? I don't think so. But I've heard people say, or imply, that because it's untested, it's doomed to failure. I don't think that's the case.

[sihnfahl]

I don't think it is, although the doubts are legitimate.

The doubts are the reason why I think it's an act of desperation.

No evidence that it works other than 'We say so'. Unknown scale of testing. Unknown efficacy. Unknown length of immune response.

Yet firing it off worldwide?

that it is highly effective and has virtually no risk.

There's a reason behind that.

How many people would get Vaccine A + B for the same disease? They're going to go with one because of costs, both economic and societal, and not go for the other. If Vaccine A doesn't work ... people aren't going to get vaccine B until people know A doesn't work... or is dangerous. By which time, a lot of people will have been injected. You really didn't do anything to stop the spread, other than give false hope people were protected...

What I am saying is that I think the vaccine is more likely to do good than harm.

Based off what? There literally is no evidence the vaccine works other than their assertion it works.

That's like trusting a car manufacturer saying their collision safety systems work to protect you ... but they won't show you the crash test footage that proves it. Or the conditions they tested the collision systems. But hey, buy the car!

[Xyril]

I don't think it is, although the doubts are legitimate. For the rest, forum rules.

While it certainly seems like it's being used as a PR move to dispel notions that Russia is far behind the rest of the developed world on this research, I also don't think it's a desperate move of any sort.

I mean, the article said in parallel with mass production, not mass inoculation, didn't it? So they're not exactly gambling with human lives--if phase III testing reveals that the vaccine is ineffective or has serious side effects, then they've wasted the money/resources used to prepare all those doses of vaccine. If further testing pans out, then they've gotten a head start on mass immunizations.

Sure, you could argue that it's a non-negligible amount of resources that might be better used exploring other vaccines until it's certain this one will be acceptable, but it's hard to tell how legitimate that criticism is without know what other viable lines of inquiry there are or just how many resources Russia has to spend on this research. Plus, I'm guessing a lot of the infrastructure used to mass produce a vaccine isn't trivially repurposed to de novo vaccine development anyway.

[Grey_Wolf_c]

Based off what? There literally is no evidence the vaccine works other than their assertion it works.

It's certainly not off of this article. And I'm surprised this got written at all, given the inherent dangers of speaking out against Putin and then standing near windows.

Grey Wolf