The Corona Virus

[NichG]

Well - my point would be that when people start thinking they're safe .... they'll not only be wrong, but they'll be reckless. But the masks or no masks isn't a discussion I really care about. It's sort of a reverse seatbelt discussion: You can't really mess up a seatbelt, but even if you somehow do, you're mostly just killing yourself. The opposite for masks: You think you're fine, for all sorts of reasons you're not, then you go visit grandpa, go work at the retirement home, and go to rock concerts, movie theaters and international flights.

I do not trust people to properly understand anything involving percentages.

And for various reasons, I think expecting feelings of self-preservation to prevent the stupid behavior is hopeless. The people who are most involved in spreading it are also the ones who are personally at the least risk, and the ones who are under the most pressure to go to work regardless. Ask those people to kindly quit their job and stay at home and don't provide any guarantee of the future afterwards and they're going to say 'well, Covid-19 has a 0.1% chance of killing people in my age bracket, but I have a 100% chance of losing my health insurance / ability to pay rent / ability to buy food / etc if I don't go to work'.

The percentage of people who do stay home is a gain, so by all means ask people to do that. The percentage of people who don't stay home but are convinced by social pressure to wear a mask who wouldn't have otherwise is also a gain. We can have both.

[Kaptin Keen]

And for various reasons, I think expecting feelings of self-preservation to prevent the stupid behavior is hopeless. The people who are most involved in spreading it are also the ones who are personally at the least risk, and the ones who are under the most pressure to go to work regardless. Ask those people to kindly quit their job and stay at home and don't provide any guarantee of the future afterwards and they're going to say 'well, Covid-19 has a 0.1% chance of killing people in my age bracket, but I have a 100% chance of losing my health insurance / ability to pay rent / ability to buy food / etc if I don't go to work'.

The percentage of people who do stay home is a gain, so by all means ask people to do that. The percentage of people who don't stay home but are convinced by social pressure to wear a mask who wouldn't have otherwise is also a gain. We can have both.

I have moderate faith in social pressure. But that works both ways. When I was the appropriate age for such posturing, I would have been immensely proud to display my disregard for such lowly things as a mere flu. The news are ripe with such stories. Many are clearly false - the first one I saw told of youngsters throwing a party, after the isolation was announced, and how 30 were now in hospital. Considering incubation period and so on, there was zero chance that story held water, yet it made it all over facebook, into news media, and into the queens god damned speech to the nation.

But ... the story being untrue doesn't mean people aren't like that regardless =)

[Tyndmyr]

Well - my point would be that when people start thinking they're safe .... they'll not only be wrong, but they'll be reckless. But the masks or no masks isn't a discussion I really care about. It's sort of a reverse seatbelt discussion: You can't really mess up a seatbelt, but even if you somehow do, you're mostly just killing yourself. The opposite for masks: You think you're fine, for all sorts of reasons you're not, then you go visit grandpa, go work at the retirement home, and go to rock concerts, movie theaters and international flights.

I do not trust people to properly understand anything involving percentages.

People are stupid in many circumstances, not merely when they feel safe. You could make the case that any safety precaution might make people feel safe, but usually when we look at the numbers, safety precautions do save lives. A certain percentage of people do dumb things, sure, but that happens as well if no safety precautions are taken.

To address this bit here, yes the military trains you quickly, but that involves a week of practice before the gas chamber (to be fair most of that time is spent on increasing speed of donning). Also those masks are pretty idiot proof, spend like five minutes adjusting the fit and you'll never have to change it again. The masks I've been seeing people wear need a lot more work to be effective, and need to be replaced often.

They do a full week now? Back when I did it, they crammed *all* the equipment training into a week. Weapons training was a day, gas chamber was a day, and a good bit of that was recovery after the intentional exposure bit, which you don't really need here. And, like you say, the speed training was a good part of it as well, and that's also not important in a civilian context.

Most masks are pretty straightforward. I use a different sort of mask nowadays, and the strap system is different, but once you figure it out, it's not at all hard. Sure, if you go with a disposable system, you gotta adjust each new one, but that's pretty easy.

Somewhat weird question, but why aren't charcoal gas masks effective against Covid? Is the virus significantly smaller then airborn poisons?

Full on gas masks offer good protection against biological threats. Probably better than masks. However, they are bulkier, and probably harder to acquire. The canister itself is generally a stack of filters with one layer being charcoal. You can get by with just the filter for viruses, generally, but having the entire filter stack is handy. Among other things, many filters are less effective when wet, and condensation from breathing can eventually lower protection. Wearing a single disposable mask all day every day is, for this and other reasons, a lot less than ideal. If you must, you probably want to explore heating/uv sterilization. Canister filters tend to last longer and are an easy swap.

But outside of the military, most people don't have easy access to gas masks. You could probably get a few at your local military surplus, but I would expect those have long been bought up.

On a personal note, my covid test after exposure came back negative yesterday so I went back to work on my covid unit. The biggest problems we're personally battling right now is lack of public education and a complete lack of protective equipment/ventilators. We're having to re-use equipment for weeks at a time that is normally meant for single use for a few minutes, so if anyone has anything to donate on that front I'm sure your local hospital would appreciate it.

Glad to hear you're doin' good! I have heard of the equipment shortages goin' around. Unfortunately, my personal gear isn't sterile or anything. It's just stuff I have around and occasionally use for hobby projects. No stash of sealed in box N95s or anything. I could probably build some respirators out of furnace filters, but given a complete lack of anything like testing or official certification, I would think that medical personnel would have to be reasonably desperate to turn to that. But if it gets that bad, sure, I'll crank some out.

[The Random NPC]

Yeah, I see now how unclear I was. It starts with a few hours of focused training, and then the rest of the week is MTLs yelling out "gas, gas, gas" at random times (I got lucky and never had one at night, my sister flight did though). After is an inspection of how well you put on your mask. Chamber day is at the end of the week.

[Brother Oni]

Somewhat weird question, but why aren't charcoal gas masks effective against Covid? Is the virus significantly smaller then airborn poisons?

To follow on from Tyndmyr, they are, but are more expensive and under normal H&S rules in the UK, you have to face fitted annually, which is a recurring expense.

For example, a half mask, a suitable filter and a pair of safety glasses will run you about £65. Meanwhile a box of 10 N95 masks used to run about £25. For infrequent use, a box of 10 N95 masks would last a lot longer.

But outside of the military, most people don't have easy access to gas masks. You could probably get a few at your local military surplus, but I would expect those have long been bought up.

While I agree that the average person won't know where to easily get a gas mask, if you've done any sort of PPE shopping or worked in the pharmaceutical/manufacturing/construction industry, they were not hard to get prior to the current crisis.

A full face mask with the same sort of filter as a NBC rated military mask will run you about £280 (Sundstrom SR200). Of course it won't offer the same sort of corrosion or impact resistance as a military mask, but they're not intended for that.

[Forum Explorer]

Here's some good news. The Corona Virus's death rate is lower than we originally thought.

Here's the not so great news. It's still more deadly than a seasonal flu.

Source.

That article seems to be saying that the death rate is a lot lower because there are many cases that are so mild or asymptotic that they were never reported. So while the death rate is lower, that means the infection rate is much much higher.

Also I'm not sure how much I trust estimates of unreported cases.

[Rockphed]

That article seems to be saying that the death rate is a lot lower because there are many cases that are so mild or asymptotic that they were never reported. So while the death rate is lower, that means the infection rate is much much higher.

Also I'm not sure how much I trust estimates of unreported cases.

As I said upthread, it ends up being a wash. Sure, the chance of any afflicted dying from the disease is lower, but there are more people infected so the number of people who die is going to be the same.

[Tyndmyr]

While I agree that the average person won't know where to easily get a gas mask, if you've done any sort of PPE shopping or worked in the pharmaceutical/manufacturing/construction industry, they were not hard to get prior to the current crisis.

Oh certainly. Anyone who stocked up prior, no problem. But now? Anything that offers reliable protection is in relatively short supply, and people are sometimes stitching homemade masks from cotton or what have you, and things like that offer more limited protection.

So, I'm gonna revisit a prediction from earlier upthread.

Not being an epidemologist, but knowing a bit of math, and having attended a conference by the CDC on the topic, I did a little bit of spitballing. If you graph the US infection rate logrithmically, the infection rate thus far is a straight line. For all the talk about flattening the curve, there has been no sign of it happening yet. If it continues in this fashion, we'll cross 100k infected in the US this coming friday. However, the curve does max out at some point. If the information from China can be trusted, it already did so there, and we may see a similar inflection soon. Once we do, we'll know more about where it'll max out.

This turned out to have been accurate to the day. IE, no sign of curve bending. This is still true, and at the current rate, we're on track to cross 1m infected in the US this coming monday(possibly sunday, the projection is very close to the line, but reporting tends to get lumped up midday).

It appears probable that the information from China is simply not reliable. It is possible that testing elsewhere is skewing results as well as others have noted. However, many measures have, at this point, been in place longer than the incubation period, so the period, long as it is, is not sufficient to explain the continued growth of cases, and the Chinese data does not appear to be a very good match for data collected in other countries. So, I suppose even if China is saying it's fine, I certainly would not plan a trip there.

[Rockphed]

Can somebody parse this page? Specifically the bottom graph. Is that the number of hospitalizations, or the number of people the CDC has tested, or what? Because it looks like it was growing exponentially until the 13th and then flattened out, which jives with when I remember people going from "ho-hum, it is a problem elsewhere" to "aaaaaah! The dead walk! The end is upon us! Quick, buy all the toilet paper for it shall be worth it's volume in gold after the catastrophe!!!!1!!!!one!11!"

[Kaptin Keen]

People are stupid in many circumstances, not merely when they feel safe. You could make the case that any safety precaution might make people feel safe, but usually when we look at the numbers, safety precautions do save lives. A certain percentage of people do dumb things, sure, but that happens as well if no safety precautions are taken.

I'm not sure that's always true.

Take bicycle helmets. Right?

On the surface, there's really no question: From time to time, we see bike accidents that would have been less severe with a helmet - and we see similar accidents, where a helmet served it's purpose to protect. Viola! Case closed.

Now show me the statistics for accidents caused by the helmet itself. It affects both vision and hearing, and it's edges can become snagged on stuff to snap your neck. Dream up any scenario that pleases - I'm by no means saying I have the answers.

But I'll say this: Bike accidents are rare! We're .... like, the most bike riding population in the world (per capita - maybe, I don't actually know), and very few people a year are hurt on a bike. So you have the bike helmet industry making sure there's plenty of statistical evidence for the effect of helmets - and it's really rather hard to bring any evidence to the contrary.

I mean .... the Hövding thing plain doesn't work.

Never mind. A thought example, nothing more.

Here's a thing tho: Most accidents happen at home! We should buy Home Helmets - before bike helmets.

[Lvl 2 Expert]

We're like, the most bike riding population in the world

No you're not, we are.


And we're also the real potheads and the real country with barely any hills. Stop trying to be the Netherlands Denmark!


As for the rest of your post, I don't think there are a lot of accidents causes directly by bike helmets, for instance through loss of hearing or vision as you said. I'm much more comfortable with the wind in my hair than with a helmet on and wouldn't want to wear one for riding a bicycle, but a proper helmet is really not that much of a hassle as far as active safety goes. I have read about an interesting study, some years back now, that claimed car drivers drive closer past cyclists wearing a helmet, because they subconsciously register as safer, and thus you need to be less careful with them.

Bicycle accidents are also not extremely rare. Per kilometer travelled there are typically more bicyclists dying than car drivers. Sure, there are all sorts of secondary reasons for that, such as that cars travel along long boring highways for much of their kilometer total and that the group of bicyclists includes a lot of children and people that don't feel comfortable driving anymore. But the bottom line is: it's not entirely without risk. And in bycicle-car collisions, it's usually the bike rider that gets off the worst (medically speaking, financially can be a different matter, cars can be expensive). I have personally gone down at least twice in my adult life, ones due to icy roads and ones due to my bike spontaneously disintegrating from under me (mild exaggeration). I'm very happy I have not been in the same number of car accidents serious enough to hurt yet. The reason I'd rather not wear a helmet is that at least with my physical condition and skillset (not trying to brag, just saying I'm not speaking for anybody else here) I figure riding is safe enough that I'm willing to trade a lot more comfort for a relatively low amount of extra risk. But the keyword is relatively.



But that's all neither here nor there. I have nothing to add about the corona virus.

[Brother Oni]

Can somebody parse this page? Specifically the bottom graph. Is that the number of hospitalizations, or the number of people the CDC has tested, or what? Because it looks like it was growing exponentially until the 13th and then flattened out, which jives with when I remember people going from "ho-hum, it is a problem elsewhere" to "aaaaaah! The dead walk! The end is upon us! Quick, buy all the toilet paper for it shall be worth it's volume in gold after the catastrophe!!!!1!!!!one!11!"

The "COVID-19 cases in the United States by date of illness onset, January 12, 2020, to March 30, 2020, at 4pm ET (n=41,417)" chart?

It's not clear by what criteria they're using for 'illness onset', but I would say people who are either hospitalised or are otherwise showing symptoms of COVID-19. Note the bar at the end from the 20th March onwards (at time of this posting) which indicates that it may not have collated all the data yet, so those numbers will definitely be higher.

I'm not sure why there's a drop in new cases from the 17th onwards - pure speculation on my part: it could tie in with some measures that some of the states are taking (apologies, but I haven't been keeping up with the US news); the CDC or another authrority could have changed the reporting criteria; there's a honest drop in the number of new cases; some regions have suspended admissions or how they're handling suspected cases (eg stay at home until it gets really bad).

[Ibrinar]

It only accounts for 41 k cases and on the 23th they were at 44k. It is possible they have trouble catching up with determining those dates and sunce tests tend to come a while after illness onset more might be missing the more recent it gets or something. Hard to say without them giving details.

[Lord Torath]

And in bycicle-car collisions, it's usually the bike rider that gets off the worst (medically speaking, financially can be a different matter, cars can be expensive). I have personally gone down at least twice in my adult life, ones due to icy roads and ones due to my bike spontaneously disintegrating from under me (mild exaggeration).

I can personally vouch for this. It's the reason I have a bunch of titantium plates and screws in my leg. My helmet also probably prevented a concussion.

The closest I came to my bike 'disintegrating' under me was when the quick release holding my front tire came loose as I went over a curb.

[Vinyadan]

And we're also the real potheads and the real country with barely any hills. Stop trying to be the Netherlands Denmark!

Out of curiosity, do you also have a Triad of Very Relevant People? (Denmark's are Bohr, Andersen and Kierkegaard).

About bike accidents, I think I know more people who died on a bike than in a car, and a helmet wouldn't have saved them. I also think that more people riding bikes means fewer driving cars, resulting in fewer bikes hit by cars, and fewer dead cyclists. I also know of a single case in which the helmet caused the death (the strap damaged a blood vessel in the neck). EDIT: with this, I don't mean that they are useless, just that they have some obvious limits, and that you still are a naked guy going at decent speed on a hard road traveled by very fast, erratic tons of steel, with possibly some sharp drops and bridges.

[Anteros]

For anyone still recovering from this illness, please be aware that studies are showing you can still spread it for up to a week after symptoms disappear.

[Kaptin Keen]

No you're not, we are.

Ok - right then. I knew I should look it up, but I didn't. We are 2nd tho*.

I don't disagree with any of your post. In part because my point isn't really about bicycle helmets, but about ..... that intersection of consumer and safety. As soon as there's a consumer element, that means strong financial interests are going to push one particular view, and I'm leery of that. I the same vein, I never trust a salesman to give me any single bit of information about his product (I am a salesman).

I, too, have nothing to add on the corona virus =)

*Which means we are like the most cycling nation in the world - right?

[Lvl 2 Expert]

Out of curiosity, do you also have a Triad of Very Relevant People? (Denmark's are Bohr, Andersen and Kierkegaard).

Not known as such, no. I guess you could go with van Leeuwenhoek, Rembrandt and van Gogh, but then you have two painters, so it's not a balanced list, and if you replace either of them with Anne Frank or Dudok or Escher (still too close) or Paul Verhoeven or Maurice of Nassau (for the military historians), Abel Tasman or anyone else everyone will be wondering why we listed either Rembrandt or van Gogh but not the other one. And leaving them both out to do van Leeuwenhoek, Frank and Verhoeven feels weird too. Too modern as well.

So you're clear on that one, go promote Denmark as the land of the very relevant triad.

[veti]

But after being almost recovered, I had another few days of high fewer and desperate coughing. Neither of which I had with covid-19.

High fever and persistent coughing are the two symptoms most often associated with covid-19.

See https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...-coronaviruses

[Kaptin Keen]

High fever and persistent coughing are the two symptoms most often associated with covid-19.

See https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...-coronaviruses

Yea - I called my doctor, and she told me the same.

It's actually tricky, because when I have the flu, I often keep coughing for a long time, not because I can't shake the infection - but because my lungs are just irritated, and it takes me an inordinate amount of time to get them all nice and clean again. So (in my estimation) I'm free of any infection or contagion - obviously.

But .. that's just my layman's random opinion. I have no idea if that's right or not, and no way of knowing if the contagion is still there, in whatever junk I'm coughing up.

For a random flu, that's ... not something that concerns me deeply.

But for this one, it's a little different. I'm honestly unsure. Because it could be literally another couple of weeks before my breathing is 100% normal again.

I'm going to have to ask for a test. And I might not get one. We don't test extensively.

[Anteros]

About "flattening the curve". Most of the US didn't really put in the shelter in place orders until fairly recently. Even New York only put their's in on the 20th. The incubation time for the virus is typically 2 weeks. In theory, "shelter in place" or "social distancing" orders won't do much to the statistics for at least 2 weeks.

It's not unexpected that the curve hasn't flattened yet. We'll see over the next week or two if our measures are working. We know from watching other countries that these measures do work if they're followed, but unfortunately a lot of people are not doing so.

Yea - I called my doctor, and she told me the same.

It's actually tricky, because when I have the flu, I often keep coughing for a long time, not because I can't shake the infection - but because my lungs are just irritated, and it takes me an inordinate amount of time to get them all nice and clean again. So (in my estimation) I'm free of any infection or contagion - obviously.

But .. that's just my layman's random opinion. I have no idea if that's right or not, and no way of knowing if the contagion is still there, in whatever junk I'm coughing up.

For a random flu, that's ... not something that concerns me deeply.

But for this one, it's a little different. I'm honestly unsure. Because it could be literally another couple of weeks before my breathing is 100% normal again.

I'm going to have to ask for a test. And I might not get one. We don't test extensively.

Like I said upthread, even if you are free of symptoms, please be aware that you can continue to shed the virus for quite some time.

[Kaptin Keen]

Like I said upthread, even if you are free of symptoms, please be aware that you can continue to shed the virus for quite some time.

I know. The official figure is 48 hours here. I intend to stick to that.

[Anteros]

I know. The official figure is 48 hours here. I intend to stick to that.

Studies are saying for up to a week now, but like everything else we're still learning and updating policies as we go.

[Kaptin Keen]

Studies are saying for up to a week now, but like everything else we're still learning and updating policies as we go.

As long as the official policy - here - is 48 hours, that's what I'm sticking with.

[mjasghar]

The change in attitudes over this thread is a whole sociology PhD in itself

[Razade]

The change in attitudes over this thread is a whole sociology PhD in itself

This forum as been generally one of the more sane, level headed ones I've seen across the internet. Only a few people, and some of them are still at it, dismissed this as "just a flu". The majority of people were hopeful it wouldn't get too bad but seemed aware that it probably would. It has, so the general acceptance that that's the reality has settled in.

[Quizatzhaderac]

detailed projection, with the ability to see the projections for specific states.

Can somebody parse this page? Specifically the bottom graph. Is that the number of hospitalizations, or the number of people the CDC has tested, or what?

That is new cases per day, based off a best estimate of when the person first got sick.

There's still some lag between catching the disease and onset. Also, most cases aren't symptomatic, and may not (I'm a little uncertain about the terminology myself) have an "onset" ever.

The march 17th drop meshed well with implementation of social distancing. The data after 22nd is widely incomplete because they're waiting on more information than the overall case figures.

[HandofShadows]

Thanks for the link. But boy is that depressing.

[Rockphed]

detailed projection, with the ability to see the projections for specific states.

That is new cases per day, based off a best estimate of when the person first got sick.

There's still some lag between catching the disease and onset. Also, most cases aren't symptomatic, and may not (I'm a little uncertain about the terminology myself) have an "onset" ever.

The march 17th drop meshed well with implementation of social distancing. The data after 22nd is widely incomplete because they're waiting on more information than the overall case figures.

Well, it isn't so much a drop as a change from an exponential case growth rate to a linear case growth rate. So while we are still having exponential growth, I am fairly confident that it is largely because of testing roll-out rather than unchecked spread.

[Quizatzhaderac]

In my own mathematical modeling (not an epidemiologist), a psuedo normal distribution works best, which comes out to

new cases daily = e^(C - (days away from the peak)^2). Which is probably optimistic, as these things tend to have a long tail.

A simple exponential model kind of works so far, if you allow for a gradual reduction in rate from social distancing and weird artifacts from testing in early days of the development.

China's official numbers have become really weird, doubly so in comparison to the rest of the world, triply so with rumors of hush money and large urn purchases. Apart from the second and third things, the rate of new deaths versus new cases is 25%. There are delays involved, so a weird ratio of some occasions is to be expected, but the weird pattern has be holding steady during our crisis.