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  1. - Top - End - #901
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    The thing with big emergency measures is if they work you are a hero, if they don't you are a reckless madman/feckless idiot. It's a gamble.
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  2. - Top - End - #902
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by sihnfahl View Post
    Based off what? There literally is no evidence the vaccine works other than their assertion it works.

    That's like trusting a car manufacturer saying their collision safety systems work to protect you ... but they won't show you the crash test footage that proves it. Or the conditions they tested the collision systems. But hey, buy the car!
    Ars Technica has a good write-up about the vaccine where they are dubious of the efficacy, and they report that there is only registered information for two Phase I trials with 38 people in each trial which are estimated to be completed by August 15, 2020.

    It appears that Russia has skipped Phase III—and possibly has not finished Phase II yet.
    ...
    Dmitriev, who spoke with a Moscow-based Washington Post reporter, also said that data from Phase I and Phase II trials will be published later this month—as the vaccine is being distributed to citizens.
    Yeah, distributing the vaccine before the results of early trials are even published is not a good sign.

  3. - Top - End - #903

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    For another pebble in the anecdote, not data, but still worrying pile.

    Earlier this year the local paper did an article series on the kids having their lungs wrecked by vaping. They decided to do a follow up to be published this weekend. Three of the kids they'd interviewed were killed by Covid, and they can't reach two others. So, potentially 5 out of 20 college age kids.

  4. - Top - End - #904
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Thanks for the links about the Russian vaccin. Very interesting.
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  5. - Top - End - #905
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Xyril View Post
    I mean, the article said in parallel with mass production, not mass inoculation, didn't it? So they're not exactly gambling with human lives--if phase III testing reveals that the vaccine is ineffective or has serious side effects, then they've wasted the money/resources used to prepare all those doses of vaccine. If further testing pans out, then they've gotten a head start on mass immunizations.
    I think it's clear from the article that phase 3 testing, if it can be called that, is going to happen in parallel with mass distribution. There's also a worrying lack of mention of which reputable agency is going to monitor and publish the results of that testing.

    I would say more, but forum rules. Suffice to say, I for one won't be lining up for this shot.
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  6. - Top - End - #906
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    it remains just another corona virus, which is the strain of viruses that include the ... flu.
    Not only is that not true, you've been told on several occasions that it's not true. Why do you keep saying this?

  7. - Top - End - #907
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    Quote Originally Posted by sihnfahl View Post
    Based off what? There literally is no evidence the vaccine works other than their assertion it works.

    That's like trusting a car manufacturer saying their collision safety systems work to protect you ... but they won't show you the crash test footage that proves it. Or the conditions they tested the collision systems. But hey, buy the car!
    Based off the fact that most vaccines that don't meet approval still "work", just with problems. They may provide immunity in a lower percentage of the population than was hoped, or have significant side effects in some portion of the population, even if that portion is very small. Having a vaccine be completely ineffective is quite a rare occurrence. They're clearly putting in genuine effort into getting a working vaccine, even if they're bypassing safety checks. I doubt they'd roll out a vaccine this early without some evidence that it works, because nobody else is approaching that point, so there isn't pressure for them to roll out an ineffective vaccine when they could just keep trying for one that actually works, and still be the first ones to have made a vaccine a few months from now.

    There's strong reason to suspect it won't match ethical standards, but no reason to suspect it won't do any better than saline solution. The best solution for Russia here is to have a working vaccine, so it makes sense to assume that's what they're aiming for, even if they're taking shortcuts to get there. And, might I add, every clinical test I've heard of from the countries that are doing the proper checks suggests that their vaccines are provoking the right kind of immune response. That isn't direct evidence for the Russian vaccine, true, but it does suggest that our methods for making vaccines are broadly effective against this particular virus, so it doesn't exactly strain credulity that a vaccine that's rushed out will still provide a measure of protection.
    That's all I can think of, at any rate.

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  8. - Top - End - #908
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    For another pebble in the anecdote, not data, but still worrying pile.

    Earlier this year the local paper did an article series on the kids having their lungs wrecked by vaping. They decided to do a follow up to be published this weekend. Three of the kids they'd interviewed were killed by Covid, and they can't reach two others. So, potentially 5 out of 20 college age kids.
    Which I think is more pebbles on the "vaping is possibly more dangerous than smoking" pile than the "covid is super dangerous" pile.
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    Rockphed said it well.
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  9. - Top - End - #909
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    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    I think it's clear from the article that phase 3 testing, if it can be called that, is going to happen in parallel with mass distribution. There's also a worrying lack of mention of which reputable agency is going to monitor and publish the results of that testing.
    Thanks for the correction. The first time I skimmed the The Guardian article, my brain must have skipped the second part where it said "mass production and mass immunisation."

    I still think that, if the country has the resources for it, mass production concurrent with testing could potentially be a smart move, since it could potentially eliminate that lag time between Phase III approval and deployment, but it's harder for me to think of a scenario where mass deployment before testing could be justifiable. Particularly since, with the right policies in place, the cost in human lives and health can be substantially mitigated, at the cost of economic damage. The risks posed by sending out a dangerous vaccine are obvious, but even sending out a benign but ineffective vaccine would pose a serious danger if people stop practicing other safeguards, thinking that they're immune, or that that the risk has been reduced enough that lockdowns are no longer worth the tradeoffs.

    Then again, it's Russia--the place where the fake headline "Putin sends tigers into the street to enforce quarantine" wasn't immediately deemed ridiculous. It could very well be that individuals doing their own risk/benefit analysis isn't the main driver of group behavior anyway, and unjustified faith in an ineffective vaccine won't actually move the needle much.

  10. - Top - End - #910

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    I doubt they'd roll out a vaccine this early without some evidence that it works
    If you'll reread monomer's post above yours, you will see that they haven't completed either of their very limited Phase I studies. They have no evidence that this works at all.

  11. - Top - End - #911
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    I'd be really dubious about the Russian claims. Not only are they skipping phase 3 as has been mentioned but they have refused to share data on the trials, unlike any other country. Even China is sharing its data. Plus it has only been a few weeks since they were caught trying to hack into other countries vaccine research in an attempt to steal it. That doesn't strike me as the actions of someone who is confident that their vaccine is ready to go.

  12. - Top - End - #912

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    As mentioned, they haven't finished the first couple Phase I trials and are completely skipping Phases II and III. You couldn't pay me enough to try that drug.

  13. - Top - End - #913
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xyril View Post
    Thanks for the correction. The first time I skimmed the The Guardian article, my brain must have skipped the second part where it said "mass production and mass immunisation."

    I still think that, if the country has the resources for it, mass production concurrent with testing could potentially be a smart move, since it could potentially eliminate that lag time between Phase III approval and deployment
    IIRC bill gates was financing some factories for promising candidates. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sm-mass-output seems to mention it (haven't properly read it)

  14. - Top - End - #914
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    I just don't understand why some people are against wearing a face mask. A face mask is very useful and smart not to get sick from the coronavirus.
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  15. - Top - End - #915
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    I just don't understand why some people are against wearing a face mask. A face mask is very useful and smart not to get sick from the coronavirus.
    They are uncomfortable. If I wear one in the heat my lower face gets incredibly damp within 10 minutes, which I assume is not an uncommon problem. Also, they don't help you not get sick, they keep you from getting everyone else sick.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wardog View Post
    Rockphed said it well.
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  16. - Top - End - #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rockphed View Post
    They are uncomfortable. If I wear one in the heat my lower face gets incredibly damp within 10 minutes, which I assume is not an uncommon problem. Also, they don't help you not get sick, they keep you from getting everyone else sick.
    Well, I'm pro-mask and I find it very comfortable even though my glasses get foggy by wearing it.
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  17. - Top - End - #917
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    I hate wearing them. Im constantly chewing on my beard, my mouth area tends to be damp after a work shift, it gives me hat hair in my beard, of all the things, and it makes my face warmer than im comfortable with.

    I also come into contact, directly or otherwise, with probably hundreds of people each day in a work shift, since i work at a grocery store. So im going to freaking suck it up and try not to make people sick enough to die.
    “Evil is evil. Lesser, greater, middling, it's all the same. Proportions are negotiated, boundaries blurred. I'm not a pious hermit, I haven't done only good in my life. But if I'm to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all.”

  18. - Top - End - #918
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xyril View Post
    but even sending out a benign but ineffective vaccine would pose a serious danger if people stop practicing other safeguards, thinking that they're immune, or that that the risk has been reduced enough that lockdowns are no longer worth the tradeoffs.
    Which was my point as to why it's not a 'good' vaccine.

    People who think they're protected won't be. Politicians and businessfolks who think it's safe to loosen restrictions, if not lift entirely ... would be horribly wrong.

    And if human adenovirus-based inoculations already are known to result in mild illnesses in individuals ... there'd be the inclination to believe that any initial illness reports will be due to these 'normal' reactions, and not new COVID infections.
    May you get EXACTLY what you wish for.

  19. - Top - End - #919
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    Quote Originally Posted by veti View Post
    I think it's clear from the article that phase 3 testing, if it can be called that, is going to happen in parallel with mass distribution. There's also a worrying lack of mention of which reputable agency is going to monitor and publish the results of that testing.
    Testing for safety and efficacy after the product is on the market is sometimes called Phase IV, but more commonly, it's just refered to as 'post marketing surveillance'.

    Quote Originally Posted by Strigon View Post
    They're clearly putting in genuine effort into getting a working vaccine, even if they're bypassing safety checks. I doubt they'd roll out a vaccine this early without some evidence that it works, because nobody else is approaching that point, so there isn't pressure for them to roll out an ineffective vaccine when they could just keep trying for one that actually works, and still be the first ones to have made a vaccine a few months from now.
    They're not bypassing basic safety checks - that's Phase I. They are bypassing everything else though, like efficacy, chronic tox, DRF study and lots of other PK/PD testing.

    Crucially, one of the things they're skipping is whether the vaccine actually works in humans who have SARS-Cov-2 as testing on small groups of patients (ie people who actually have the disease state) is performed in Phase II. Phase I is basic toxicology testing on fit adult male volunteers.

    About the only thing you can say for certain, is that it works in animals at combatting SARS-Cov-2 as that's all the work they could have done to find a lead candidate.

    Of course, this is what would actually happen in normal drug development - if the Russian government rounded up some sick people to use as guinea pigs instead of well, guinea pigs, then they're leaping through the testing phases. Would it be actually released in countries with a functioning medicines regulatory body... who knows?

  20. - Top - End - #920
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rockphed View Post
    Also, they don't help you not get sick, they keep you from getting everyone else sick.
    They do help you a bit to not get sick. It is way less effective in that direction than the "not get others sick", certainly, but it does help a little.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    my glasses get foggy by wearing it.
    As someone that struggled with this in the beginning: if the mask doesn't have a little metal bendy bit at the bridge of the nose, add one or find one that does. Once you have a mask with that metal bit, pinch it until the mask is very snug around your nose, and then rest the glasses on it, or close to it. Works wonders.

    Quote Originally Posted by Keltest View Post
    I hate wearing them. Im constantly chewing on my beard, my mouth area tends to be damp after a work shift, it gives me hat hair in my beard, of all the things, and it makes my face warmer than im comfortable with.
    I can't speak to this from direct experience but... consider shaving it off, or at least cropping it very short? At least for the duration of the pandemic? It's just hair, it'll grow back, and if it makes this hellish daily experience just a bit better, is it not worth it?

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    Last edited by Grey_Wolf_c; 2020-08-17 at 10:41 AM.
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  21. - Top - End - #921
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey_Wolf_c View Post
    They do help you a bit to not get sick. It is way less effective in that direction than the "not get others sick", certainly, but it does help a little.


    As someone that struggled with this in the beginning: if the mask doesn't have a little metal bendy bit at the bridge of the nose, add one or find one that does. Once you have a mask with that metal bit, pinch it until the mask is very snug around your nose, and then rest the glasses on it, or close to it. Works wonders.

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    Thank you. I'll admit I do have a big nose.
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  22. - Top - End - #922
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    There is evidence of it protecting the wearer too to a degree https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/27/h...rotection.html

    But yeah masks are annoying, not very imo so I don't understand people who complain about using them for a short while in a shop but they do make the part of my fave under them sweat.
    Last edited by Ibrinar; 2020-08-17 at 10:42 AM.

  23. - Top - End - #923
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bartmanhomer View Post
    Thank you. I'll admit I do have a big nose.
    The size is not the crucial characteristic. It's that the air has to go somewhere when you breathe out, so unless you restrict the flow tightly at the top, it'll be at least partially directed at your glasses. By pinching, you restrict the airflow there, so the airflow instead goes down to your chin, and out the side, I think. Don't care, as long as it is not robbing my ability to see.

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    But really, the important lesson here is this: Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?
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  24. - Top - End - #924
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey_Wolf_c View Post
    The size is not the crucial characteristic. It's that the air has to go somewhere when you breathe out, so unless you restrict the flow tightly at the top, it'll be at least partially directed at your glasses. By pinching, you restrict the airflow there, so the airflow instead goes down to your chin, and out the side, I think. Don't care, as long as it is not robbing my ability to see.

    Grey Wolf
    Thank Grey Wolf. That advice is very helpful.
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  25. - Top - End - #925
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey_Wolf_c View Post
    I can't speak to this from direct experience but... consider shaving it off, or at least cropping it very short? At least for the duration of the pandemic? It's just hair, it'll grow back, and if it makes this hellish daily experience just a bit better, is it not worth it?

    Grey Wolf
    Ive tried that. But my beard actually grows back in pretty quickly, and whenever i shave it off i end up with horribly dry skin that itches like my entire chin is covered in mosquito bites. I actually end up unconsciously messing with the mask a lot more to scratch at the dry skin than i do for pulling hairs out of my mouth, and i at least am consciously aware of doing the latter, so im sure to wash my hands after every single time, or if thats not feasible than to just not do it. I have a few other bearded coworkers who have had a pretty similar experience to mine, so i think it might just be the curse of the heavily bearded. All things considered, its probably still less annoying than the fogging glasses, because at least i can ignore a damp beard or a hair in my mouth, as opposed to fogged glasses blinding me entirely.

    The mustache though i chop off regularly. That one is worse than the beard at getting chewed on, but it bothers me to have it shaved a lot less.

    ETA: I do not wear glasses at all. My sympathies to those who do. I might complain about the beard, but it doesnt actually hamper me at all during my day.
    Last edited by Keltest; 2020-08-17 at 10:54 AM.
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  26. - Top - End - #926
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grey_Wolf_c View Post
    As someone that struggled with this in the beginning: if the mask doesn't have a little metal bendy bit at the bridge of the nose, add one or find one that does. Once you have a mask with that metal bit, pinch it until the mask is very snug around your nose, and then rest the glasses on it, or close to it. Works wonders.
    N95s have this, with the bonus of the elastic straps not going around the ears for added comfort. Of course, I had a glut in the form of a few boxes when this whole thing started since I got them for woodworking, so others may not be able to access them as readily.
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  27. - Top - End - #927

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    We have a local 3M factory that makes them, and they occasionally sell odd lots I'll pick up fairly inexpensively (also, Post-It notes. I have so many Post-It notes). I gave most of my stash to the local hospital back in March, though.

  28. - Top - End - #928
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tvtyrant View Post
    The thing with big emergency measures is if they work you are a hero, if they don't you are a reckless madman/feckless idiot. It's a gamble.
    Yup. Testing generally happens for a reason, and while you can skip it and have things work out sometimes...well, there are risks. I would personally rather wear a mask a bit longer than risk a dodgy vaccine. Most of the ones we get normally are quite thoroughly tested, but plenty an attempt doesn't make it through testing.

    Probably more likely to get a result of "it just doesn't work" that any particularly adverse reaction, but still, investing resources into something that accomplishes nothing can hinder the actual cure. Coronavirus is nasty stuff, but it's not a zombie virus or something. There's also the credibility problem. The initial messaging against wearing face masks is probably still hurting us because scientific authorities lost credibility on that issue. If you assure someone a vaccine will make them safe, and it doesn't, they may not believe you the second time.

    Slower and safer might still be the smart play here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rockphed View Post
    Which I think is more pebbles on the "vaping is possibly more dangerous than smoking" pile than the "covid is super dangerous" pile.
    There is a wierd interaction where smoking appears to make one less at risk from Covid. Not at all intuitive, and it would certainly be a stretch to claim that smoking is beneficial overall, but if vaping apparently doesn't share that, it might be useful data to narrow down what is causing the effect.

    In general, tossing additional small particles into your lungs doesn't *seem* as if it should be a healthy thing, but sometimes you get strange interactions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaptin Keen View Post
    I have at no point been wrong about anything. I mean, I did call the virus 'just the flu' - and while it's definitely substantially worse than just the flu, it remains just another corona virus, which is the strain of viruses that include the common cold, and flu. I could even have given a source for that, because I got that from a news article; that this was a flu disease.
    The flu is short for influenza, which isn't a coronavirus. If you have a source for that, your source is wrong.

  29. - Top - End - #929

    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    The theory I saw is that the tar deposits smoking leaves in your lungs are pretty much functioning as a layer of insulation the virus has trouble getting through.

  30. - Top - End - #930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogar Demonblud View Post
    The theory I saw is that the tar deposits smoking leaves in your lungs are pretty much functioning as a layer of insulation the virus has trouble getting through.
    It wouldn't even be the first time something that bonkers has happened - malaria can help cure syphilis, because the life-threatening malaria fever does kill the syphilis bacteria.

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