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  1. - Top - End - #121
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by aspi View Post
    If you find the steps that have been taken in the UK to be too drastic or "panicky", I recommend that you spend an hour take a good look at the situation in Italy.
    As an example, there's a twitter video of a local man in Bergamo, Italy, where he compares the obituaries from a local newspaper from 9th Feb 2019 to one from 13th Mar 2020: link.

    The obits last year had just under a page and half; this year it was 10 pages. This is a daily newspaper.

    Even if they only ran the obituaries once a week, there's no denying the impact of COVID-19 over a 'normal' seasonal influenza death toll.

  2. - Top - End - #122
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Aedilred View Post
    Infection isn't the issue, really: it's mortality rate. An infection that infects 7 billion people but kills none of them is a bit annoying, but not worth panicking over.

    There's also the second part of the equation: what one considers to be "too seriously".

    Whether the COVID-19 mortality rate - which is difficult to assess but appears to be around the 1-2% mark, and that distorted by disproportionately high levels of mortality among the elderly - is worth panicking over is largely subjective. Personally I don't think it is.

    Some of the measures being taken in response to this virus fill me with unease for reasons I can't discuss on this forum. But what I can say is that by buying wholesale into a dramatic response to a disease that for the majority of people is not particularly dangerous, we are accepting potentially radical amendments to our way and quality of life which may or may not be permanent, without thinking it through or having any kind of reasoned discussion on the subject.
    Mortality rate is sitting at 6% at the moment. Well currently it's at 98% according to the tracker I use, but that's because of a glitch or it being hacked as the Vatican did not just get 500 000 new infections with 900 000 of them dying.

    But anyways, from what I've seen mortality rate is ranging from 4-6%. And in all odds, that's going to get worse before it gets better. It will get better, but in a depressing way, as those who are likely to die from it, will die out, while the people who are more likely to recover will keep getting sick for a while afterwards.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rynjin View Post
    This is faulty logic.

    Imagine if 100% of the planet had the flu, but none of them died.

    Society grinds to a halt. All businesses close because there's nobody there to man them, and no customers in any case. Nobody makes any money, so the government gets no taxes. Which would result in essential functions being shut down, but that's okay because all of them are already non-operational because everybody has the flu.

    The long term effects are pretty catastrophic economically and socially even with zero fatalities.
    Emphasizing this. Because even if the virus itself doesn't kill people, society being shut down will. There are what? Hundreds to thousands or more people who need continuous care? Even a week where there simply isn't anyone healthy enough to help them will wipe them out. Those without access to proper medical care like disadvantaged people or refugees are very vulnerable as well. And if you get severely injured in that time, well you likely will die as well. Apparently there are around 2160 heart attacks per day in the USA. Currently the casualty rate from a heart attack is about 14%. How much do you think that would rise if there was no one there to give treatment?

    An easily treated injury or disease will quickly become fatal if the hospitals are pushed past capacity.

    Now of course, it's doubtful that we will hit a 100% infection rate or even anything close to it. So hopefully we will be able to keep our hospitals under capacity and operating. And it certainly isn't worth panicking about, that's not going to help. But it is certainly worth taking seriously.
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  3. - Top - End - #123
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Brother Oni View Post
    Even if they only ran the obituaries once a week, there's no denying the impact of COVID-19 over a 'normal' seasonal influenza death toll.
    Obviously, these people died as a result of the panic resulting from the media-manufactured hoax virus. And also, Italy is nearly 100% old and vulnerable people, everyone else still has nothing to worried about. And everyone knows that Italy is a third-world craphole country, nothing like that could ever happen [here].*

    /s

    *Unless you live in Italy, China, or Iran, there's probably someone in your country still desperately clinging on to that last bit.

  4. - Top - End - #124
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...irus-infection

    This doesn't appear certain, at least to my reading, but France is saying that Advil and Ibuprofin can aggravate COVID infections. Since it's easy to be infected and not know it, probably a good idea to use other painkillers(ugh, Tylenol) for the foreseeable future.

  5. - Top - End - #125
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by NotASpiderSwarm View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...irus-infection

    This doesn't appear certain, at least to my reading, but France is saying that Advil and Ibuprofin can aggravate COVID infections. Since it's easy to be infected and not know it, probably a good idea to use other painkillers(ugh, Tylenol) for the foreseeable future.
    AFAIK, this is true for infections of the upper respiratory system in general, mostly if you already have problems in the cardiovascular system.


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  6. - Top - End - #126
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by NotASpiderSwarm View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...irus-infection

    This doesn't appear certain, at least to my reading, but France is saying that Advil and Ibuprofin can aggravate COVID infections. Since it's easy to be infected and not know it, probably a good idea to use other painkillers(ugh, Tylenol) for the foreseeable future.
    Quote Originally Posted by Iruka View Post
    AFAIK, this is true for infections of the upper respiratory system in general, mostly if you already have problems in the cardiovascular system.
    What Iruka said. Basically if you have respiratory problems (which is one of the symptoms of COVID-19) then Paracetamol is probably better than Ibuprofen. Note that this is normally the case. Still, if you have respiratory problems then it is likely a good idea to reach out to a doctor.

    ---

    I've been quarantined for a week already, at least two more weeks to go. Luckily as I joke to reduce the drama of the situation I have always preferred to be inside than outside anyway.

    I am worried about Easter though. Easter's holidays are in 4 weeks. People most likely won't stay put during Easter so who knows what will happen then.
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  7. - Top - End - #127
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by NotASpiderSwarm View Post
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...irus-infection

    This doesn't appear certain, at least to my reading, but France is saying that Advil and Ibuprofin can aggravate COVID infections. Since it's easy to be infected and not know it, probably a good idea to use other painkillers(ugh, Tylenol) for the foreseeable future.
    For those not familiar with American brand names:

    Tylenol is a brand name for acetaminophen, which is known as paracetamol in the UK.

    Similarly, Advil is Ibuprofin (is this a typo?) is ibuprofen.

  8. - Top - End - #128
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by aspi View Post
    If you find the steps that have been taken in the UK to be too drastic or "panicky", I recommend that you spend an hour take a good look at the situation in Italy. That's the situation the rest of Europe an the US will be in in a week. Note: I did not say "will be in unless we take measures", but rather the situation we will be in no matter what. All the people that are going to be sick and show up in the statistics next week are already infected. None of those measures are intended to stop us from getting to where Italy is right now. They are intended to stop us from ever getting to where Italy will be in a week from now.

    That being said, I agree that panic is pointless. It's still a small percentage of the total population that is infected and its unlikely that any given individual is infected. But being mindful and careful to make sure it stays that way and does not spread more than can be avoided is decidedly not pointless.
    I don't think the steps that have been taken at an official level in the UK are too drastic or panicked. I do think that the people stripping the shelves bare, locking themselves in their houses and demanding that increasingly draconian measures be taken, however, are.

    I am concerned about the long-term social effects, even if the measures being taken are proportionate right now, because we're still living with the consequences of 9/11 and 7/7. We readily give up personal freedoms to contain a situation on what's supposed to be a temporary basis, but things never go back to normal, firstly because nobody wants to be the guy who recklessly turned the safety dial down and gets burned, and secondly because all these personal freedoms are really pretty inconvenient anyway. COVID is probably more dangerous at an individual level than terrorism ever was and therefore the restrictions on our liberties could easily end up being much more serious. Across Europe we're seeing elections postponed, courts suspended, entire cities placed in quarantine... That could become the new normal surprisingly quickly, and that worries me a lot more than the virus itself.
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  9. - Top - End - #129
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Aedilred View Post
    I don't think the steps that have been taken at an official level in the UK are too drastic or panicked. I do think that the people stripping the shelves bare, locking themselves in their houses and demanding that increasingly draconian measures be taken, however, are.

    I am concerned about the long-term social effects, even if the measures being taken are proportionate right now, because we're still living with the consequences of 9/11 and 7/7. We readily give up personal freedoms to contain a situation on what's supposed to be a temporary basis, but things never go back to normal, firstly because nobody wants to be the guy who recklessly turned the safety dial down and gets burned, and secondly because all these personal freedoms are really pretty inconvenient anyway. COVID is probably more dangerous at an individual level than terrorism ever was and therefore the restrictions on our liberties could easily end up being much more serious. Across Europe we're seeing elections postponed, courts suspended, entire cities placed in quarantine... That could become the new normal surprisingly quickly, and that worries me a lot more than the virus itself.
    That's extremely unlikely.

    They are closing the schools in Germany. Museums, public libraries, everything.

    That will never be the new normal. Things will go back to normal as soon as possible.

    Granted, the harebrained UK idea to confine elderly people to their homes while everyone else continues to move around is more likely to become a new normal since only a part of the population is affected, but last thing I've heard, appropriate measures are being taken there, too.

    It's not the same as terrorist attacks. Terrorists kill just as many people in the twentieth attack as in the first. Viruses don't. Things did go back to normal after the spanish flu.

    The population at large will not tolerate being denied their soccer matches, their travelling the world, their parties. Not when it hits everyone.


    Granted, the closing of public bath houses in Europe did prevail for quite a while, but ... people eventually went back to washing instead of using powder and perfume, too. And that was before science understood how diseases are transmitted.
    Last edited by Themrys; 2020-03-16 at 04:06 PM.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Sheriff: Please remember to steer clear of real world politics (interpreted broadly to include government policies) and giving medical advice. This forum may well not be the place to discuss all aspects of the COVID-19 situation. That's fine. Keep it to the Forum appropriate aspects of the topic here.
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  11. - Top - End - #131
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Themrys View Post
    That's extremely unlikely.

    They are closing the schools in Germany. Museums, public libraries, everything.

    That will never be the new normal.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Lvl 2 Expert View Post
    Unless you ask Alice Cooper.
    I vote for always asking for Alice Cooper's take on current events, all delivered in rock form.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    So I saw yesterday or Sunday that a German lab isolates the protein that Covid-19 uses to infect the lungs, and there are already existing drugs that help neutralize that protein.

    Does it mean this could be theoretically a treatment to limit the infection?

  14. - Top - End - #134
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by jayem View Post
    2 complementary theories, one stolen, one more original.

    a) Toilet paper is big for it's price and complexity. Put two in the trolley and it's instantly a trolley full of reassuring stockpile, next item.
    Selecting 100 tins, where do you begin, and after tin 20 you've probably decided that's enough but your trolley is still worryingly empty.

    b) For the same reasons, once it starts being taken the shelf looks very empty quickly leading to a grab the 'scarce' resource.
    In 2 weeks of panic, this is the single best explanation I have managed to find anywhere on the internet.

    You deserve an award.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Plus an additional factor related to toilet paper being both bulky and cheap: stores don't like to stock much of it, since it needs tons of space and doesn't earn them much, so as soon as people buy even a little more than usual, they don't have any left to restock the shelves.
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    Now I expect a bidet hoarding crisis.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    My parents house has had a bidet in the master bathroom and guest bedroom's bathroom since 1988.

    I've been ready for this my whole life.
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Cikomyr2 View Post
    So I saw yesterday or Sunday that a German lab isolates the protein that Covid-19 uses to infect the lungs, and there are already existing drugs that help neutralize that protein.

    Does it mean this could be theoretically a treatment to limit the infection?
    This did not make the news in Germany, so probably not. Do you remember where you got that information from?
    Existing drugs (I read about stuff against HIV, Malaria and Ebola) could be helpful for treating and are currently investigated. A german company is investigating a vaccination involving the "spike protein" on the virus, but that is apparently still very experimental.
    Unfortunately, I can offer only a source in German: German news.


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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Iruka View Post
    This did not make the news in Germany, so probably not. Do you remember where you got that information from?
    Existing drugs (I read about stuff against HIV, Malaria and Ebola) could be helpful for treating and are currently investigated. A german company is investigating a vaccination involving the "spike protein" on the virus, but that is apparently still very experimental.
    Unfortunately, I can offer only a source in German: German news.
    There are a few German sources:

    https://www.mdr.de/wissen/goettinger...erren-100.html

    https://www.dpz.eu/de/startseite/ein...erhindern.html

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Interesting to read the "just the flu" comments from a couple weeks ago, and even some still recently. Some of the strongest healthcare systems in the world can't handle the rising number of critical patients and people is suffocating to death in their beds, no one answering their calls anymore. Over 1000 dead in Italy in just 3 days, and number of cases keeps rising faster and faster... even if they are just doing tests on serious cases now. Here in Madrid there are no more breathing machines available in Hospitals, authorities are rushing to install more but right now the system can't cope with the huge number of new infected coming in. Doctors themselves are becoming sick, hospital staff is overworked and exhaust already - and it's just the beginning.

    Then there's the "I'm young and healthy" crowd. Hopefully you won't need to be hospitalized for any other reason because all hospitals will be collapsed, and hopefully you don't have elderly family members, nor any loved ones with asthma or that have been under chemotherapy. Hopefully your employers/customers are also perfectly young and healthy as well. I hope your favorite artists, creators, etc are also perfectly young and healthy, or you may be in for disappointment as well.

    It's not the end of the world, but this is no joke. Please take it seriously.
    Last edited by DavidBV; 2020-03-17 at 06:31 PM.

  21. - Top - End - #141
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBV View Post
    It's not the end of the world, but this is no joke. Please take it seriously.
    Seconding that. I'm in France ; people are sitting in enforced confinement in their homes, not allowed to leave unless for essential reasons. Even so, the decision probably came too late, and the infection rate (along with the death toll) will continue to rise before the confinement does its work and it comes down again.
    Three weeks ago, I was relativizing the virus saying it's just one more flu panic. One week ago, I started being worried about my older relatives. But I didn't imagine that my daily life would change much. 5 days ago, I stopped shaking people's hands, but I didn't worry too much about taking the bus. 3 days ago, I was still taking the train and traveling. 2 days ago, I started to realize how serious the situation was.

    My point is, I'm not blaming anyone for not fully realizing the gravity of the crisis. I didn't either. But the truth is, that's a factor, maybe even the main factor, that allowed the virus to spread that much. That's how Europe got hit so hard: by being overconfident in the fact that it originated far away and that we could keep it out, or contain it if it got in. So even if you're doubting, please take a moment to consider the worst-case scenario, and/or the possibility that you might be wrong, and follow the security measures (limiting contact, staying home and working from home if possible, one-meter distance etc.). That virus is airborne and spreads stupidly fast. While we're spending time delaying, considering if measures taken might be too drastic, understating the virus, it's infecting new people. Sure, it's not very dangerous to most of us: if we get it, we'll be fine eventually, maybe we'll even get lucky and not show any symptoms and not even know that we have it. But without knowing it, we risk spreading the virus further, to other people who'll spread it themselves. Eventually it'll make its way to immunodeficient or elderly people, and we'll be partly responsible for that.

    I'm sorry if I sound dramatic. I'm not actually panicked. I'm pretty sure I personally will be okay, and most of my friends too. I probably sound more worried than I am. I'm just saying: time is against us. The virus spreads every day, and if you're infected today, you'll risk transmitting it for at least two more weeks. Wasting even a day before taking appropriate measures means extending the pandemic's duration.
    Stay safe, folks.
    Last edited by Seto; 2020-03-18 at 06:59 PM.
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    Texas is starting to shut down businesses (restaurants, movie theaters, etc), but plenty of office jobs are still going. My boss is of the "It's just the flu, the media is intentionally blowing it out of proportion" persuasion, so I'll probably be working for the foreseeable future. But some of my co-workers who I would normally expect to be fully with him on that are a lot more scared this week than they were last week. Fortunately, I'm in the "Young and healthy enough to probably be an asymptomatic carrier" set, so I'm fine, and anyone I interact with outside of work is healthy enough, but if my boss is common, then this state's going to be as bad as Italy pretty soon.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    It is a pandemic, meaning it has spread all around the globe.

    First identified in China by a Chinese doctor, who was silenced by the Chinese government.

    Wile the first Coronavirus existed some 8000 years ago, affecting mostly birds and bats, by 1890 it had evolved (diverted; both cases are still existant) into a form that can affect humans. By 1950 an other case was spoted able to affect canins (dogs and their subspecies). The most recent bat coronavirus evolved in 1986. 2003, 2012, 2015, and 2018 all had outbrakes of mass infection but were contained locally. This version, first officially identified in December 2019 is the first case of a human pandemic.

    Some useful information:

    On stainless steel (quoted by wikipedia):
    A) The survival times at 80 % RH and 40 °C [104 °F] were less than 7 hours for proxies of coronaviruses on stainless steel.*
    The survival times at 50 % RH and 40 °C [104 °F] were more than 24 hours.* There was a reduction in the ratio of virus to -3 Log10 (Nt/N0) in 24 hours.
    The survival times at 20 % RH and 40 °C [104 °F] were more than 120 hours.* There was a reduction in the ratio of virus to -3 Log10 (Nt/N0) in 120 hours.
    The survival times at 50 % RH and 20 °C [68 °F] were less than 7 days on stainless steel.

    This means you are relativelly safer in a hot environment.

    B) As of today, 19/3/2020, there are 219.000 reported cases worldwide, resulting in 85.000 recoveries and 8.900 deaths.
    That means that 38.8% of those infected eventually recovered, wile 4% died. the ~57% remaining are still infected.

    0.0029% of the planet population has been infected, 0.000118% died, and 0.0011288% was infected and then recovered naturally.

    C) Coughing and sneezing is the primary means of spreading. Spreading would be greatly more limited if people followed basic hygiene practeses such as coughing in your elbow and washing hands before consuming food or touching your face. It is also good practice to wash your hands with alcohol (or an alcohol based solution).

    D) Symptoms: (quoted by wikipedia):

    Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and those infected may either be asymptomatic or develop flu like symptoms such as fever, cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, or muscle pain. The typical signs and symptoms and their prevalence, are shown in the corresponding table.[185]
    Further development can lead to severe pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, septic shock and death. Some of those infected may be asymptomatic, returning test results that confirm infection but show no clinical symptoms, so researchers have issued advice that those with close contact to confirmed infected people should be closely monitored and examined to rule out infection.[1][186][187][188]
    The usual incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset) ranges from one to fourteen days; it is most commonly five days.[189][190] In one case, it had an incubation period of 27 days.[191]



    E) If you have a severe condition, or a chronic health problem, you should take extra precautions to avoid being infected.



    I hope this post was helpful. This is the product of personal research, and in no way am I a certified physisian, just a person who tries his best to prevent the spread of the virus, and of missinformation.

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Asmotherion View Post

    On stainless steel (quoted by wikipedia):
    A) The survival times at 80 % RH and 40 °C [104 °F] were less than 7 hours for proxies of coronaviruses on stainless steel.*
    The survival times at 50 % RH and 40 °C [104 °F] were more than 24 hours.* There was a reduction in the ratio of virus to -3 Log10 (Nt/N0) in 24 hours.
    The survival times at 20 % RH and 40 °C [104 °F] were more than 120 hours.* There was a reduction in the ratio of virus to -3 Log10 (Nt/N0) in 120 hours.
    [FONT=sans-serif]The survival times at 50 % RH and 20 °C [68 °F] were less than 7 days on stainless steel.

    This means you are relativelly safer in a hot environment.
    Now I wish I had not sold my stainless steel dry sauna.

    C) [...] It is also good practice to wash your hands with alcohol (or an alcohol based solution).
    Do you have a source for that? The WHO Q&A does not recommend alcohol over soap & water.


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  25. - Top - End - #145
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    ElfRangerGuy

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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Iruka View Post
    Now I wish I had not sold my stainless steel dry sauna.


    Do you have a source for that? The WHO Q&A does not recommend alcohol over soap & water.
    As far as I know (I got this from a renowned virologist here in Belgium who's been on the news rather a lot lately): preferably use soap and water. If that's not available, alcohol based hand rub also works, but it has to have high alcohol content (at least 60-70% is what I heard). Put quite a lot on your hands and rub until dry in the same way as you would when washing with water and soap.
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  26. - Top - End - #146
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by NotASpiderSwarm View Post
    Texas is starting to shut down businesses (restaurants, movie theaters, etc), but plenty of office jobs are still going. My boss is of the "It's just the flu, the media is intentionally blowing it out of proportion" persuasion, so I'll probably be working for the foreseeable future. But some of my co-workers who I would normally expect to be fully with him on that are a lot more scared this week than they were last week. Fortunately, I'm in the "Young and healthy enough to probably be an asymptomatic carrier" set, so I'm fine, and anyone I interact with outside of work is healthy enough, but if my boss is common, then this state's going to be as bad as Italy pretty soon.
    The most terrifying numbers I have come across so far are:

    • In South Korea, huge number of cases can be linked to one individual, so called Patient 31, who was a carrier, and also ill, for two weeks before he was tested. During that time he visited some public gatherings so he was in contact with huge number of people

    • More than 100 cases across Germany and Nordics can be traced back to single After-Ski bar in Tirol, Austria.

    Shows how bloody difficult it is to contain the virus.

  27. - Top - End - #147
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Kurzgesagt just released their covid-19 video:



    Lots of info on how the virus actually works which I have not seen elsewhere.

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  28. - Top - End - #148
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Asmotherion View Post
    It is a pandemic, meaning it has spread all around the globe.

    First identified in China by a Chinese doctor, who was silenced by the Chinese government.

    Wile the first Coronavirus existed some 8000 years ago, affecting mostly birds and bats, by 1890 it had evolved (diverted; both cases are still existant) into a form that can affect humans. By 1950 an other case was spoted able to affect canins (dogs and their subspecies). The most recent bat coronavirus evolved in 1986. 2003, 2012, 2015, and 2018 all had outbrakes of mass infection but were contained locally. This version, first officially identified in December 2019 is the first case of a human pandemic.
    This bit is largely wrong. There are several corona viruses, best known is the common cold, and that's been in circulation amongst humans for at least centuries, probably millenia.
    The end of what Son? The story? There is no end. There's just the point where the storytellers stop talking.

  29. - Top - End - #149
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBV View Post
    Interesting to read the "just the flu" comments from a couple weeks ago, and even some still recently. Some of the strongest healthcare systems in the world can't handle the rising number of critical patients and people is suffocating to death in their beds, no one answering their calls anymore. Over 1000 dead in Italy in just 3 days, and number of cases keeps rising faster and faster... even if they are just doing tests on serious cases now. Here in Madrid there are no more breathing machines available in Hospitals, authorities are rushing to install more but right now the system can't cope with the huge number of new infected coming in. Doctors themselves are becoming sick, hospital staff is overworked and exhaust already - and it's just the beginning.
    For what it's worth, my opinion remains largely unchanged, but I don't think it helps to repeat it any more.

    Yes, it's a crisis. Yes, things are bad. People are losing their homes. Friends are losing jobs, and my sister, who has a five-month-old baby, may lose hers, and in her industry that's a career-killer. My colleague in employment law is deluged with calls from clients trying to cull their employees. There's a good chance I will have to go part-time and take a serious pay cut for the next few months because the alternative will be major redundancies even at my firm. Local businesses are shuttering and barring a miracle many of them will probably never re-open, which means lost livelihoods.

    But it's not the virus doing that. It's the reaction to the virus. It reminds me of an autoimmune disease where in an attempt to respond to a perceived threat the body turns on itself and makes matters worse.

    I don't know what the right response is. I don't know whether any of the measures that have been taken are correct. I do know that the combination of uncertainty and panic is causing serious economic damage - not just theoretical, but real - and will leave a mark on pretty much everyone long after the virus itself has disappeared into the background soup of endemic minor human ailments, and the consequences of that frighten me a lot more than anything the virus itself will do.

    Quote Originally Posted by Asmotherion View Post
    It is a pandemic, meaning it has spread all around the globe.
    Strictly speaking, a pandemic is just "across a large region", not necessarily globally. But now that it's at last making serious inroads into Africa it is indeed truly global, in any case (assuming we treat Antarctica as uninhabited).
    Last edited by Aedilred; 2020-03-19 at 06:06 PM.
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  30. - Top - End - #150
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    Default Re: The Corona Virus

    Quote Originally Posted by Aedilred View Post
    But it's not the virus doing that. It's the reaction to the virus. It reminds me of an autoimmune disease where in an attempt to respond to a perceived threat the body turns on itself and makes matters worse.
    Except an autoimmune disease attacks healthy cells for no good reason. As best as I can tell, an effective response actually saves lives--a lot of them. We've already seen enough data points to be reasonably certain that exceeding your health care system's capacity makes this virus much worse. And yes, some of the economic hit can be abstractly attributed to "useless panic."

    But let's not forget, even the minimum rational response to mitigate the situation thus far is having the biggest impact on the economy. The contemporary economy in most developed countries is heavily dependent on in person commerce--pretty much any response that involves substantial social distancing is going to have a major impact on that economy, period. Is the situation worse because we're taking those steps, and people are laying off workers and withdrawing their capital from potentially job-creating investments? Absolutely. But I feel that even if we could magically remove the panic component, we'd still be heading towards a recession.

    Of course, I'm assuming you don't count the whole social distancing thing as part of the panic that just makes matters worse. I suppose I can see things from your perspective. Even a 5% death rate--from the perspective of the economy and long-term human survive--wouldn't be apocalyptic, and could in fact boost the economy at the lower end by tightening the labor market. Pushing the healthcare system beyond its current intensive care capacity might result in changed views on how much "excess" critical care capacity we should keep on hand. Having that excess capacity on hand means a lot of higher-end, middle-class jobs.

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