Midwest Mafia/Werewolf

[kgato503]

A new day, multiple new pages to read through...wheeeeee.

I'm not sure how notable it is, but I just noticed that both Unavenger and JeenLeen had voted for CaoimhinTheCape. I know SOP for wolves is normally to not kill someone on N1 who voted for you D1, and the fact that CaoimhinTheCape is the last voted for in both cases would make me think that the wolves would have avoided killing JeenLeen if CaoimhinTheCape was a wolf. I know it doesn't exonerate CaoimhinTheCape, but this strengthens my town read on CaoimhinTheCape... That, or the wolves are new/deliberately messing with expectations *eyes Avatar Vecna and Xihirli suspiciously *. Right now, this is the only thing that staring at the voting record has given me (well, that and a headache )

I will admit that I am still somewhat suspicious of gac3. Something in the way they have been responding has seemed off to me. I can't really articulate it beyond that it seemed different from how they seemed to have posted in other games. Its kinda why I haven't really let the earlier comments from them go (it was the best thing I had to latch onto at the time other than feeling that something was "off"). However, given their post about real life being a pain could also explain it (best of luck on your test, by the way!). I am, again, inclined to let things slide there for a little while longer (watch as it turns out they are a wolf )

In the interest of getting quieter players to speak up: rogue_alchemist, care to share any insight? (and yes, my vote will probably change after they respond, provided they don't say something that trips my wolfdar)

Oh, and on the excessive vote changes=wolf front, I will admit it is normally one of those things that gets me a little suspicious. Due in no small part to the first online game I played having most of the wolves have high vote change rates. They were able to rationalize the changes well, but pretty much all the players with the highest change rates (by a good margin) were wolves. I won't declare wolf purely for it, but it will make me look your way, and I am likely to call attention to it. That being said, I kinda had to throw it out the window this game, for some odd reason .

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Snowblaze ISO

Show

AvatarVecna, I don't like to start a bandwagon straight away but the RNG decrees it.

Also, Mrs McGinty is missing from the player list.

Null. It could be a wolf starting a wagon on an acceptable target with a "lolrandom" justification, but it could also just be a townie rolling dice or whatever.

Or someone who is making a spreadsheet to track votes.



I agree with the principle of multiple wagons for analysis, but I’d like to know why you picked me instead of gac3, Mrs McGinty or Xihirli, all of whom also had one vote.



Great. So I’m second highest in votes based on... pointing out Caerulea’s mistake, creating an arbitrary counter-wagon and “making an impact”.

Aventine, I think that sounds like a wolf jumping on a townie wagon (whether to protect AV or just to make sure both wagons are town, who knows?).

If you must lynch me, at least do it on actual evidence rather than “I’m not AV”. I know it’s day one, but still...

(Edit: missed a vote for AV)

- - - Updated - - -

Also:



FoS on gac3 for this:
1. As kgato pointed out both JeenLeen and I were wolves last game.

2. I didn’t trick everyone, I told the truth and left out the detail that I was a wolf.

3. ...are you implying I’m more of a trickster than AV? Because I’m not. (Yet.)

4. Voting for me on the grounds that I’m a good wolf doesn’t make much sense because there’s no evidence I am.

This seems unreasonably salty given the game had been going for like 5 minutes and barely anybody had even voted yet. Null.

1. Because I don’t mind starting counter-wagons but do mind jumping on said counter-wagons without reasoning.

2. I’m... not sure. I sort of agree - the post itself seems wolf but I think a wolf would be more careful than that. Mainly just suspicious because I disagree with the logic.

3. So we can have bandwagons with actual reasoning beyond “for the sake of bandwagons” or “because of previous games”, and because there’s plenty of time for me to switch to self-preservation if my wagon stays large.

Slight town lean. I like these answers.

Are you going to tell me what your reasons are?

I'm mildly suspicious of gac3 and JeenLeen, but nothing strong enough to warrant a vote. I'll get back to you on that once more people have posted.

Suspected JeenLeen, was wrong. Super-weak scum lean, but I'll keep this post in mind for later just in case...

I have done that every game so far, including twice when I've been town.

Although trying to defend myself against this kind of "logic" is pretty pointless.

Null.

Perhaps I can be of use: in my limited experience I have found that the town generally begin with the former, and as each game progresses move towards the latter. I have yet to encounter a true Wall of Text, but analysis is prevalent as the game continues.

Null.

...do you *want* to be lynched? And if so, why?

Null. Could see anybody asking this question of that behavior.

Okay, vote count is up to date... firstly, @JeenLeen, your explanation makes sense, I guess. Although I'm definitely not taking your statement that you're town at face value.

On Mrs McGinty... well, that's an interesting strategy... and you're right, it's giving us plenty to analyse. I don't think they're particularly wolfish at the moment, since I feel like a wolf would stay under the radar a lot more.

I don't really see how CaoimhinTheCape (please tell me I spelt that right) is suspicious - they're new and it's understandable to vote for someone jokingly incriminating themselves.

And Xihirli was definitely bad in RAC, @Valmark. I will have my revenge for her betrayal. At some point. Probably not this game.

Yeah, because we thought she was an American traitor. I reserve the right to try and kill anyone I think has betrayed me (if I can actually do so. I established last game that I'm terrible at killing people.)

If you were never on my side I was never on your side, so neither of us betrayed the other. Plus, you know, you did want us all dead. And you assassinated our assassin.

...wait, are we talking about trying to kill her night two or lynching her later on?

Either way, the only reason we tried to kill you was because we thought you were plotting against us. Which you were.

Here. I assume that’s what you meant, at least.

Null. Not much to work with here, despite so many words.

...stupid time zones. It may take me a while to catch up on this. My vote count is up to date, though.


Fine by me.



Are you going to explain your reasoning for that?



Oh, no... well, should be interesting at any rate.


Random responses to general things and stuff I forgot to quote:

I hadn’t really noticed how I was being more aggressive than usual. It’s probably because at the time I was being bandwagoned seriously for the first time.

On gac3: I don’t see how I really “went after” them, I just noted that the post seemed suspicious and reasons why. Now all this has happened, I don’t find them that much more suspicious than anyone else.

...it’s day one. Why is there a six-vote wagon on someone who hasn’t posted? Pressure votes are one thing, but not lynching someone day one for not having posted. I’m willing to bet there’s at least one wolf on that wagon. I’ll do some more analysis and read through the thread again to see who looks most suspicious of those.

You'll learn in time. Not punishing inactivity and punishing activity teaches people not to play. The only solution is to burn the inactives at the stake use pressure votes to encourage people to post more, because garbage content is better than no content.

I think I’ll put some pressure on Unavenger, for the following reasons:
Adding a sixth vote to a wagon on someone who hasn’t posted.

Clearly paying attention to the game if the numbers thing is anything to go by, but not posting any analysis at all, just poking inactives.

Forgetting to cross out their vote for rogue_alchemist, messing up my vote count. (Okay, this one isn’t too serious, just mildly annoying).

Any comments/analysis?

Also @Captain Cap, I see you’re not voting at the moment. Who do you find suspicious so far?

Looks worse in hindsight. Slight scum lean.

I present my read list, in order from least to most suspicious:

Definitely town:
Snowblaze. Need I say more?
Probably town:
Mrs McGinty (I can't really see a wolf taking the kinds of risks they've been doing. And they're definitely encouraging discussion and analysis.)
Aventine (their questioning of me seems fairly townish, as do their reasons for voting me. There's a chance they could have been defending AV with that vote, but I think it's unlikely.)
Null read:
JeenLeen (seems townish and thought processes make sense, but generally seems town even when wolf.)
CaoimhinTheCape (No major red flags and I haven't played with them before so I don't know their playstyle)
AV and Xihirli (I still don't have a clue how to read either of them. Neither seem particularly suspicious. Both probably plotting something...)
kgato503 (I don't really see any of their posts as alignment-indicative. They've posted analysis, which is good.)
Haven't posted enough:
Lex-Kat
Captain Cap
Libro
Duck999
Rogue_alchemist
Logan1996
Suspicious:
Valmark (voted Mrs McGinty, then switched to wanting to keep them alive and joined the inactive wagon)
gac3 (their reasoning is a little unclear, plus they jumped on the Mrs McGinty wagon)
Unavenger (reasons outlined earlier)

Slight town lean, I'm a sucker for a read-list. I like the mentioned weirdness about Valmark's switching.

On lynching Logan1996, I disagree. The fact they haven’t posted in the first 44 hours or so doesn’t mean they won’t later (well. They won’t if they’re lynched today).

Also if they’re town it gives very little analysis and it’s easy for wolves to jump on the wagon. And if they’re not going to contribute they’ll be auto-lynched, meaning we’re wasting a lynch.

(Actually, Caerulea, what are the autolynch rules? I don’t remember seeing them in the OP.)

And on my suspicions... are you going to explain why, if it’s not because you’re a wolf? (To clarify, I don’t think you’re a wolf, but that last post made you seem more suspicious to me.)

Null. They're wrong about the lynch being wasted, but I've already stated my case about why we shouldn't let inactives auto-lynch.

Fair enough, I guess that makes sense. Guess you're a little less suspicious for that. (This list is going to change a lot...)

QFT. Null read.

...where do I start? Firstly your vote count is incorrect (here's mine, which I'm 99% sure is accurate:
Mrs McGinty 1 (gac3)
Aventine 1 (kgato503)
Logan1996 5 (Libro, CaoimhinTheCape, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Duck999)
Rogue_alchemist 1 (Aventine)
CaoimhinTheCape 4 (Xihirli, Unavenger, JeenLeen, Libro)
gac3 2 (rogue_alchemist, Captain Cap)
Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)
Unavenger 2 (Snowblaze, Mrs McGinty)
Didn't post: Logan1996)


Secondly, I'm voting for you because (up until now) you haven't posted much useful stuff (I guess the numbers are fairly useful).

Thirdly, your suspicions of me are... not right?

1. I know, I could have voted for someone else if I wanted to, but with only one post I didn't see anything better to do with my vote.

2. The "logic" I meant was Mrs McGinty's "Only a villain would..." which wasn't in any way a serious accusation. And I did defend myself against it, just for the record.

3. "Man, this person has been analysing the game, better vote for them"... where did I say anything to that effect?

4. As shown by this post, I am keeping track of votes, but I never said keeping track of votes was wolfish. I said the fact you were paying enough attention to keep track of votes but not (at the time) posting analysis was wolfish.

Definitely keeping my vote where it is: it seems like you're basically misinterpreting everything I say to make me look bad.

Worse in hindsight.

Fair enough on the "tired and ill" front. I don't think an incorrect vote count is suspicious.

And "Quickly checking through the thread but not getting specific reads" isn't what you were doing. You were misinterpreting everything I said. I've explained my actual reasoning behind those posts, whereas you've misquoted and twisted my words to make me look like a wolf.

So, questions:

1. So you're now saying you don't want Logan to be lynched. Why, then, did you put a sixth vote on them?

2. Where did I vote someone for trying to analyse?

Some solid questions, and still looks worse in hindsight. Null.

There's still an hour and ten minutes left of the day. Why don't you try and defend yourself instead of lashing out at your accusers? I'm still waiting for answers to my questions.

@Caoimhin pretty sure you are.

Null.

@Caoimhin I may have my time zones muddled.

@Unavenger... you made a vote tally and then didn't realise how many votes were on someone?

Also I've explained why I was voting for you multiple times: it's because you could have actually done some of that vote analysis or reads yourself. Of course, I'm now voting for you because you're acting extremely wolfish.

And I'm struggling a bit to keep up with the rush of posts so I didn't see your answers earlier.

Null.

Got to go now. More analysis to follow tomorrow or maybe next day phase.

Null.

Can you explain why I’m suspicious? I still don’t get Unavenger’s reasoning for my being a wolf.




I’m sorry, too. I guess what happened was a clash of two very different playstyles. And for my part, I still don’t believe your accusations were justified, and I guess my mind automatically went “invalid logic means wolf”.

Maybe I could have explained my reasoning a bit more clearly to avoid this mistake.

Oh hey it's okay they apologized to the dead villager for deathtunneling them it's okay guys.

Valid point. I can see how it would look suspicious, but it's just how I play: unless there's any actual reasoning to vote someone my first vote of a game will be random.

Null.

Right... Analysis time!

So... Unavenger was acting very suspiciously, and I think there were a lot of townies on their wagon. But there could also be some opportunistic wolves there. Or some wolves going against the wagon for town points (Valmark?) Here's my suspect list, in order from least to most suspicious.

gac3: I'm not convinced that they're a wolf, but they have posted slightly suspicious things (see my reads list from day one) so it's worth considering.

CaoimhinTheCape: unvoted without saying anything, which was seen as suspicious - but given they haven't played on this forum could just be unfamiliarity with how we do things. Was on both the suspicious inactive wagon and the confirmed town wagon, but gets a pass because self-preservation. Mildly suspicious.


Valmark: see yesterday. Also deliberately avoided the Unavenger wagon - could be a wolf trying to gain town credit. Or could be my paranoia speaking.

Duck999: put the fifth vote on the inactive wagon, and must have been paying at least some attention to know Logan hadn't posted.

Libro: was on the suspicious wagons. I'll let them off on Logan because it was the first vote and not intended to start a wagon, but their rapid switching from Caoimhin to Unavenger makes me think they could be a wolf.

AvatarVecna: The main read I'm getting is "they're AV" but I also think they could be a wolf, having been on both the confirmed town wagon and the inactive wagon, and pushing both into lynch contention.

Overall I'd be happy to put pressure on any of those at the moment, but AV is my prime suspect right now.

I love a good read list. Town-leaning.

Just realised I forgot something:

Spoiler: Day One Vote Count

Show

Mrs McGinty 1 (gac3)

Aventine 1 (kgato503)

Logan1996 1 (Duck999)

Rogue_alchemist 1 (Aventine)

CaoimhinTheCape 3 (Xihirli, Unavenger, JeenLeen)

gac3 3 (rogue_alchemist, Captain Cap, Valmark)

Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)

Unavenger 6 (Snowblaze, Mrs McGinty, Libro, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Aventine)

Didn't post: Logan1996

(Note: this is different from Caerulea's because it counts votes after EOD.

@Duck999, why did you join the Logan wagon?

Slightly town leaning, I like this question. Of course it's less because it's inherently a good question as much as because it maybe prods Duck into participating but who knows.

I have you down as voting gac3... but also as voting Logan. Will fix that.

Null.

Um... Elenna isn't playing.

Null.

Slight wolf lean in general, made worse by how they focused Unavenger (and how that turned out). I might be biased in favor of hindsight, though.

- - - Updated - - -

Unavenger has been declared town by death/narrator. This is for perspective on their thoughts, but more will be learned by what others thought of them than vice versa.

Spoiler: Unavenger ISO

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Vote: Avatarvecna of course.

Sadly, this kind of chicanery is well within Xi's and AV's townranges, so it tells us very little.

Early D1 jokes. Not much to analyze.

Yeah, there's some others we haven't heard from, like rogue_alchemist, who I'd like to hear from.

This continues being a thing. rogue_alchemist needs to post more. But then, so does everybody else.

Spoiler: The numbers what do they mean

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1. AvatarVecna
2. gac3
3. Valmark
4. Logan1996
5. kgato503
6. Aventine
7. Snowblaze
8. rogue_alchemist
9. Captain Cap
10. Unavenger
11. JeenLeen
12. Xihirli?
14. CaoimhinTheCape
15. Libro
16. Lex-Kat
17. Duck999
18. Mrs. McGinty

10 says 1
7 says 1
3 says 2
18 says 7
16 says 7
12 says 12
11 says 7
6 says 16
2 says 11
5 says 1
7 says 6
18 says 6
18 says 11
9 says 18
3 says 18
14 says 18
15 says 4
10 says 8
12 says 14
1 says 17
2 says 18
18 says 3
3 says 11
18 says 5
8 says 2
6 says 14
11 says 18
1 says 1
14 says 17
1 says 14
14 says 4
3 says 4
17 votes 4

From this we can tell... I'm not actually sure. I'm ill and headachey. But I'd like to hear from some of our lurkers.

10 says 5

kgato503 say something please.

EDIT: This is what I get for not reading properly, you have been saying things. 10 says 4, logan1996

This post did not sit well with me at all at the time. It's almost textbook definition of "looking more helpful than you are". Probably should've let it go, though...

Love ya too, Avvie.



I guess, but OTOH we can't let mafia members sit around lurking and just get off free because they're not doing anything. *Shrug*

We're all numbers here! It's easier than writing things out in full.

Null.

UVC:

Unave 2 (Mrs McGinty, Snowblaze)
Rogue 1 (Aventine)
Avent 1 (kgato)
Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)
Logan 4 (Unave, Duck999, Valmark, Libro)
CaoimhinTheCape 2 (AvatarVecna, Xihirli)
Mrs McGinty 2 (JeenLeen, gac3)
Gac3 1 (rogue)

Okay, so we have one vote on me because I'm... posting useful stuff, and one vote because of sheep, so FoS both of you.

Well, I'm not the dead probably, meaning I can vote basically how I like, so let's play ISO EVERYONE!

AvatarVecna: 25 posts from you. A severe chunk of them have been LAMIS...WOLF. Unfortunately, because this kind of chicanery is well within AV's townrange, I can't see much of a read on them.
Gac3: 6 posts. One RVS vote, one pointless response, a post filled with halfhearted question-answering and one arguably-reasonable vote, one post I don't actually grok, and two more useless posts. You certainly do look like you're trying to look like you're doing stuff without doing stuff.
Valmark: 33 posts from you. Most of them look like you're actively doing something useful, so town lean I guess?
Logan1996: No posts, SL by default. I think there may be better people to actually kill, at least for tonight, especially if he's gonna be ALed EoD2 anyway.
Kgato503: I'd like to see more but your analysis so far is reasonable.
Aventine: I think you raise some decent points but I'm wary of anyone who spends a lot of their ISO butting around rather than actually doing anything of substance.
Snowblaze: How to put this... almost every post you've made is some degree of yikes, whether it's "I don't want to start a wagon but RNG demaaaaaaaaaands~" (Hint: RNG demands nothing of you. You have free will) through "Bah, I care not for you "LOGIC" and therefore I won't put up a proper defense" to "Man, this person has been analysing the game, better vote for them". Most telling is perhaps the fact that you claim to be keeping track of votes (#30) but also think that keeping track of votes is wolfish (#171). There's no universe in which you actually go out swinging today, but I don't have to like anything you're doing.
Rogue_alchemist: You have one post, step it up please. I suspect an AL-dodge. RA please tell us things.
Captain Cap: As above so below, you need to post more.
Unavenger: Absolutely, positively the worst.
JeenLeen: You're doing some things I guess but you need to post more rather than some half-hearted analysis.
Xihirli: Much as AV, with an added helping of some real scumhunting.
CaoimhinTheCape: Yeah I'm not entirely happy about you unvoting silently. I've only seen one person do that kind of thing while town, and you're no AV. Add to you not really doing that much apart from some half-hearted attempts not to seem too suspicious... yeah, not happy.
Libro: Lurk less post more.
Lex-Kat: I'd like to see some more info and some more posts in general rather than empty votes.
Duck999: Pro tip, you should at least be trying to solve at least partially on D1. Also lurk less post more.
Mrs Mcginty: Pro tip, being generally confusing and making everything harder to analyse is not actually very towny, nor is switching you vote a lot.

TR
TL Valmark, Xihirli
NR AV Kgato503, Aventine, Kgato503, JeenLeen
SL Logan1996, rogue_alchemist, Libro, Lex-Kat, Duck999, Mrs Mcginty.
SR Gac3, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape

UVC:

Unave 2 (Mrs McGinty, Snowblaze)
Rogue 1 (Aventine)
Avent 1 (kgato)
Valmark 1 (Lex-Kat)
Logan 3 (Duck999, Valmark, Libro)
CaoimhinTheCape 3 (AvatarVecna, Xihirli, Unave)
Mrs McGinty 2 (JeenLeen, gac3)
Gac3 1 (rogue)

If someone feels like voting up the person actually acting scummy rather than the person who's just not posting and will probably be autolynched end of day 2, that'd be grand.

Looks better in hindsight. Some useful thoughts scattered through the ISO. More people twigging onto gac3...

Last valid vote, as specified in 179.

Vote the moon for dead 2020.

Joke.

Captain, we're about to end the day. You can't actually lynch gac3 unless there's a sudden change in votes. The only real things you can do are lynch Caoimhin, or vote someone else with 2-3 votes, forcing a lynch on Logan.

(EDIT: To be clear, you can either vote Logan and he'll die, or Mcginty and I'll probably let RNGsus take the wheel, or me and I'll have to switch to logan or risk dying.)

Also you're wrong that "Townies don't want to be hanged just as much as the wolves". A wolf-lynch is far more devastating against the wolf team than a town-lynch is versus the town, due to the number of people on each team.

Still looks real bad even in hindsight. "Wolves have way more reason to get salty about wagons than villagers do, which is why you should think im a villager for getting so salty about this wagon!" I mean it kind helps that I get salty a lot when I die as villager, so I didn't really agree with this post the first time around...

Yes. The entire team wins no matter who's dead. Otherwise the correct play as town would require you not to be too helpful, otherwise you get wolfkilled and lose, while also being helpful enough that town wins.

Also getting killed N1 for no good reason would kinda suck.

*cries in JeenLeen*

Yes, I missed some votes. It's because I'm tired, ill, and not focusing well.

Also I don't know that "Quickly checking through the thread but not getting specific reads because I don't have time right now" is a wolf play either. You're grasping at straws.

EDIT: MMG, asking people to post more so we actually have something to analyse isn't a scum move, you colossal wolf.

Oh trust me, I know how to play wolf. But I'm not. Bouncing around a bunch isn't a town play. Unvoting without saying so isn't a town play. These aren't just bad game plays, they're scum indicators, and I hope to lynch at least one of you before you get me mislynched.

They're not wrong.

We have tons to analyse FROM A SMALL FRACTION OF THE PLAYER BASE. That's not enough to get reads from everyone. It's entirely possible that every single wolf is in the set of people who've posted almost nothing.

All I see is the two people who were voting me for crap reasons anyway death tunneling me. It's not the most convincing thing under the sun, let me tell you.

I actually want everyone to post, so we can tell who the wolves are, and then I want to lynch the goddamn wolves. Is that so wrong?



As you noticed, I didn't realise how many votes were on them, and voted for them to try to force them to talk.

You voted for me for checking through everyone's votes so we could do vote analysis, even though you claim you were doing the same thing. Yes, yes, apparently you think I'm trying not to post anything actually helpful, but I don't buy that.

...and below here is where they give up and just accept the inevitable death. They all read basically the same and we don't get any real analysis or reactions from it. We get their core scum list which is nice, but it's difficult to say any of it's definitely true at this point. It's strong suspicions fueled by death-salt.

Ah, well. When I flip town, Caomhin, MMG, and Snowblaze for the dead 2020. Thank you all and good night.

Yes, it does. Which is part of the reason I'm not entirely wanting to fight it too much. We know who's on my wagon, we know who I suspect, so we know who's trying, hell-for-leather, to lynch me before I out them all as wolves. All I can say is that it's a little too late for that.

EDIT: What's there to defend? HAVING a reads list is scummy?

I weep for this town's chances of survival, I do.

Although I was under the impression we only have 5 minutes left, not an hour and five.

Anyways, I answered you.

Remember everyone, when I flip green, Caomhin, Snowblaze and MMG for dead 2020! Good night!

I was going to, and did, later.

(Snowblaze, Caomhin, and Mcginty, folks. Just so we all remember because there's no way I'm not flipping town in 2 minutes' time!)

Whatever. I'm cool with people voting me, and then voting you three next. If there was more to say... I don't have time to say it. Bye.

Honestly? Maybe. I'm sure the good people of the town can figure it out from here. *Shrug*.

Or, you know, maybe not. Given the amount of faith I have in this town rn.

I still think we should test out at least one of these three people. MMG and Snowblaze are my preferences, but we'd learn a lot from lynching Cao even if they turn out to be town.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Valmark ISO

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A lot of these are going to be left unaddressed because they have so little content to engage with and it's easier than writing "Null." over and over. I'm leaving the quotes in, though, so that the general word-to-content ratio can really sink in.

I'll vote for the first on the list that lacks a vote on them, thus Gac3

She's sorry you were left off the murder list

To my knowledge in the end there was no actual lie besides Xi's dying message- only hidden truths.

Which makes it all the more cryptic.

Lie long enough and you become your own lie

Not in the games I took part in- though, in the first one they were neutral at least.

I think.

I'd vote Gac3 for this, but I'm already doing it :p

From what I know switching around the vote several times is considered a wolf move by better players then me, so I guess Mrs. McGinty.

They are the only ones to give me any actual motive. Also I woke up with a splitting headache, so this is all the analisys I can do. I'll keep Gac3's vote in the fridge.

Null. It's not a joke post or an unmotivated vote, so it's something at least, but a townie or wolf could've posted this easy.

Apparently? I can get the reasoning, at least. A wolf would try to confuse town this way. I don't actually agree with it, but I don't agree with plenty of the pre-established rules.

There is to say that you aren't offering many reasons for your votes- not that there are many in day 1, but still. I have to go on with something.


Besides, I have a tendency to switch the vote around a lot too, regardless of alignment. ("Tendency" observed in all of 2 games, one of these where I died early, so not much of a statistic I guess)

- - - Updated - - -



Forgot to quote who I was replying to.



True, good catch. Maybe they WANT to be lynched due to the horrible crimes they committed with their gang of gunmen è.é also hi~

...slight wolf lean. This post rubs me the wrong way early on.

We are quite obviously selling our souls to the devil.
Not that I mind, there's already plenty of entities in line.

Three, you forget Xi. Or to be more precise Xihirli?.



I think? I mean, wolves are quite clearly the bad guys, aside from the cruise game were the wolf killed almost no one.

- - - Updated - - -



I debated earlier if the plot armor would apply. Quite obvious what I decided on.

It's always sunset somewhere.

Should also offer info. While the reasoning is correct and indeed I plan to keep it in mind, there is to say that it could be a way to protect AV. If I'm not wrong McGinty was tied before the vote with AV which would make AV get lynched.

In case of a tie its first comes first lynched, right?

@Snow: We did try to off her the second night though.

If you were never on our side we wouldn't have been able to betray you, though. It's your fault for conspiring behind our backs- if you hadn't we wouldn't have done it.

Literally because it was your lies to the american that made us suspect you, if I'm recalling correctly.

I was talking about night 2, when we weren't sure were her true allegiance lied. Lynching her later on was just our job :p


Regarding the game, I seem to have missed someone taking off their vote from AV. And I was somehow convinced we had four people at 2 votes. Mh. My headache is gone now, so maybe it was its fault.

Wouldn't someone good as a wolf be usually kinda good at town too? Seems to me that you are trying to get the good players dead, which is wolfish.



If it's the same Ramsus that I know then they are definitely active, though not in this section. Also hi Ele~<3

Irl? It's how I get along. Quote. I'm basically what you get when you combine the protagonists from Death Death Devil Devil Evil Evil Song and Wolf in Sheep's Clothing.

Here? Tecnically I was always Town, but the first game featured wolf-styled town factions that were out to kill each other, so it's debatable.


To be fair, since Gac3 (I think it was Gac3?) explicitely called out you and Snow, so it should be correct to only talk about them. It is a good doubt though.

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Oh I see. Don't think I'll ever do it, but it's helpful to know it's not so wolfy. Still keeping Gac3 in mind though. Like everyone else, really.

Defends gac3 a little. idk how to feel about that at this point, but I'm hoping within the next 8 hours I'll figure out how to feel about gac-related stuff.

I'll try, though with how active you've been it's a lot to review :p
Also, given how much you're ignoring your lead in the votes already makes me think you are Town (also gut feeling, which has been more right then wrong up until now), so I'll probably change my vote as soon as I've finished this post. Though, that is kind of hypocri...ti...cal (english isn't my main language) since I've voted you for changing votes too many times.

Anyway:
- No comment on Lex, it looked like your run-of-the-mill day 1 vote for silly or random reasons. I do notice that she has later kept posting without contributions, so I reserve her as a tiny wolfish feeling.

- Aventine might have voted for Lex as a secret way to protect you, which would mean both of you are wolves. Seems unlikely for the same reason of Lex. Also they joined in on the fun only initially, but that feels like it has no real meaning. Also I did the same with others;

- Snowblaze has always kept track of votes, so no comment. She might be slightly defensive, so slightly wolf? She certainly seems more aggressive then usual, in this specific game. Also skeptical towards your behavior;

- I'm getting repetitive, but same thing for CaptainCap as Lex;

- CaoimhinTheCape would be equal, but the random vote starts being suspicious around this time in my opinion, especially since they admitted to it too, and I know from Snow and Xi that wolves accusing themselves is actually fairly likely to happen and go unnoticed (in Snow's case);

- JeenLeen could have purposefully called you a new player to draw suspicions, but it seems silly and Jeen is smarter then that. Also, their helpfulness is pretty much the same with or without evil intent behind it. So slight Town. They say to not lynch Xihirli, which is usually wolfish because the meta of this forum implies that Xi is better off dead when in doubt, but I too disagree so no comment. Though I'm slightly biased. Jeen also put themself in doubt with their own words, like Caoimhin. All things considered, they would be my second pick after Gac. Also that reasoning regarding Kgato, feels like trying to pin suspects on them- I don't share their reasoning, even if valid, so more wolfy then towny;

- Xihirli looks Town for her vote on Caoimhin, but it could be a way to defend you. This would imply that her, you and Aventine are wolves, but as I should have made clear it feels far-fetched, so I'm thinking a jumpy Town;

- Gac3 has been activating ALL of my sirens- on day 2 it's likely that I'll vote for them, but for now I'd prefer to stick to the current wagons since there isn't that much time, unless other two start pushing for Gac3. If you get lynched and turn out Town they are at the top of my list.

I think it's all of them? Checking the votes, I see that JeenLeen has 2 votes. I'd prefer lynching them to lynching you, so yeah, I'm switching my vote.



That's the kind of thing people in films say when they are hiding something, mind you è.é

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Note on Snowblaze: I get the feeling she has been more aggressive with votes yes, but that is compared to when she was either a Town or a Wolf so there isn't much of a point. Didn't want to edit since it could be suspicious.

Slight town lean, read lists make me happy because it gives us something solid to refer back to later.

Unfortunately if I do want to try and keep Mrs. McGinty alive I should vote on a wagon that doesn't rely on the wagoned's suicide, since I'll hopefully be sleeping when the Day ends. Given my hynsomnia it's not that likely though.

Once again rubbed the wrong way by claiming to want MMG alive when earlier he voted them. Slight wolf lean.

sob that's the sound of my heart crying

Nay, don't worry, I don't actually work well in groups anyway :p which is counter-productive in this game. Or in any game. Funny enough, in life it works.

Mrs. McGinty: 4 (Lex-Kat, Captain Cap, Gac3, JeenLeen)
Aventine: 1 (Snowblaze)
Logan1996: 2 (Libro, CaoimhinTheCape)
Rogue_Alchemist: 1 (Unavenger)
CaoimhinTheCape: 3 (Xihirli, Aventine, AvatarVecna)
JeenLeen: 1 (Me)
Kgato503: 1 (Mrs. McGinty)
Gac3: 1 (Rogue_Alchemist)

I have no idea when did Jeen lose their 2 votes. Since I'd like to keep Ginty alive like I said before I'll vote for CaoimhinThe Cape. I swear that there were two votes on them when I previously checked.

Caoimhin isn't a new player right? Otherwise this will feel very wrong very fast.

This goes for all the vote-count posts, but very slight wolf-lean just cuz I'm inherently suspicious of analysis-less bean-counting.

Mrs. McGinty: 4 (Lex-Kat, Captain Cap, Gac3, JeenLeen)
Aventine: 1 (Snowblaze)
Logan1996: 2 (Libro, CaoimhinTheCape)
Rogue_Alchemist: 1 (Unavenger)
CaoimhinTheCape: 4 (Xihirli, Aventine, AvatarVecna, Me)
Kgato503: 1 (Mrs. McGinty)
Gac3: 1 (Rogue_Alchemist)

Solved! Not sure what you meant but just in case I updated it. Felt like it was better to leave it be in that post because can see why I made the change. Though I guess you can see it just as well here.

- - - Updated - - -



Will do! Question. I doubt it's the case, but that part seems to imply that you moved your vote because Ginty is viewed as Town and not because you don't think Ginty is wolf. It's a fairly important difference, since I think that the former is wolfier then the latter.

Again though, I don't actually think that's the case.

Slight town lean. I like this explained thought process.

I AM NOT COUNTING VOTES EVER AGAIN.

Who did I miss?

Mrs. McGinty: 3 (Lex-Kat, Gac3, JeenLeen)
Aventine: 1 (Snowblaze)
Logan1996: 4 (Libro, AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Me)
Rogue_Alchemist: 1 (Unavenger)
CaoimhinTheCape: 1 (Xihirli)
Kgato503: 2 (Mrs. McGinty, Aventine)
Gac3: 1 (Rogue_Alchemist)
AvatarVecna: 1 (Kgato503)

è.é


Tbh if we are talking about good (as in active and contributing) players getting offed first there's plenty to go around, so you might be safe for a day or two, or more.

I hate you. <3

Yeah, updated. Not gonna touch that list anymore.

On that note, as I've stated earlier that I'm trying to not let Ginty die, I'll vote for Logan1996.

You shouldn't have mentioned that in the first place.

I agree- though I'm miffed now that I'm not a 25.

If I was a wolf I'd indeed try to keep you alive. It would be more exciting with "wild cards". Or if the person in question were to be just generally funny.

This means that I'll be more suspicious if you survive now, though >.> As in, others will be more suspicious of me.

This gives me weird feelings, but they're neither positive nor negative. Null read but I'm watching you.

I mean, I'm not worried because it's one vote, but is there a specific reason for choosing me?

I feel like the lack of roles and powers hurts the townies way more then it hurts the wolves, beyond the simple fact that there are more townies thus more powers lost.

It's like a blind run of a game instead of checking internet for tips and secrets. I usually do the latter.

General strategy discussion, but at least it's something to engage with? Made for nice conversation at the time.

Regarding the lynch, I feel like it's better for us. If they are wolves then of course it's good, and if they are town it's better to mislynch someone who isn't contributing. It does give less info though, that's true.

How come you left out Rogue_alchemist from the people who went after Gac3? Because they didn't include a reason for it?

I'd like to point out that in all of Gac3's contributing posts there was reason for concern, and they did not leave satisfying answers. Not going to let them go because "it was a mistake", if anything I'm more surprised you trust them on this with no basis. Or at least appear to.

Also the fact of just wanting to follow a wagon for the sake if it is suspicious in my opinion. I have to say though, I get hang up on the small details. Ask Caerulea how many times I asked them the same question in my first game :p and I was right to do so, turns out.

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...don't really have a reply here, it's true after all >.>

Slight town lean for the contributions here. I like the Aventine call-out about RA. I also like them agreeing with me about inactives, but I'm trying to not let that bias me.

Didn't I already? I voted for Mrs. McGinty due to how wildly where their votes changing, then later on I got reasonably convinced of their towniness.

Preferring to keep someone that I find likely to be town I've joined the wagons that could compare to their. Not that it matters anymore because if I'm not wrong Ginty is now at 2 votes, but there's also little point in moving away now.

Null, slightly leaning wolf. Feels a bit overly defensive, but at the same time they've gotta respond to it because it's a weird moment.

Start the fanfic.

I had absolutely missed your location, we aren't simply from the same timezone. We are pretty much neighbors. Statistically speaking, that's awesome.

Of course we could be from the opposite ends of Tuscany, but whatever.

Also I was going to change my vote to try and get lynched one of those most suspicious to me since there's no more risk of Ginty dying, but you all just confused me. Thanks. I'll leave it be until I've checked the actual votes but I will not post a list.

So it's like 20 minutes of car. Do you go to the gaming club?



I feel like your real error has been getting this aggressive (not in the same way Snow did), which makes it look like you are a wolf getting defensive. I'll have to re-read your posts before I can commit to an opinion, because the tone of the text makes you look suspicious due to a bias. At least in my case.


True enough, I can't disclaim that it feels wolfy to do something you think is wrong. My reason for it is that it was early in the Day and without much to go on I used one of the reasonings that appear to be shared by the community- since I'm still fairly new (3rd game) it's plausible that those reasonings are sound even if I don't share them, and without anything to go on I can try. The only other target was Gac3, and between the two of them it was pretty tied. Since then, Ginty fell at the bottom of my list and Gac rised to the top. Well, sort of. Still not sure how to react to Unavenger's explosion, though it doesn't look like it'll matter.

Also I had an headache for not sleeping well, if it counts :p

As soon as something more suited showed up I jumped out of that wagon, if I recall correctly. Also because Ginty did conquer some trust.

The reason for suspecting you is that you jumped on what looked like a steaming wagon without an apparent reason, plus yeah an arbitrary cut-off. Which is only subjective, so I don't expect others to share it.



On a completely unrelated note, Lex voted for me because she didn't want Ginty to get lynched- I don't recall what were the wagons, but I think there was someone with at least a vote while I didn't have them, I think. It's strange, I think, but not something to act on now. To keep in mind for later. Also she never answered me.

- - - Updated - - -

I HAVE MISSED TEN POSTS AND A NEW PAGE.

A lot of words, but so few I can really engage with. It all feels pretty standard, like anybody could've said it.

Uh, alright, if you did there was a chance we actually met once.


Regarding the game, looks like there isn't much I can do because Unavenger should have six votes on them (Libro, Ginty, Snow, Aventine, Caoimhin, AvatarVecna) and no other wagon comes close.

I'll put a vote on Gac3 because they are still my top suspect. Unavenger... After re-reading it really feels like someone throwing a fit. Which means, at least to me, that it's unreliable for determining their allegiance, since people get angry all the same beyond their factions.

Also they are going to die either way at this point, I believe.

Could be voting the person they suspect even if they know it won't lynch them, could be distancing from the soon-to-be-dead villager. Null read.

It is allowed, though it's frowned upon I think. Reason being, anything you say can get used by the wolves first, instead of being useful for the town lynch first.

- - - Updated - - -

I should clarify, it's frowned upon as in it makes you look wolfy.

To be fair, given Unavenger's outburst I'm not entirely sure it can be used as good reference. And it kind of strikes me as odd that JeenLeen would get killed by their suspects- that's a bit too obvious. I do imagine that with six votes there must be at least a wolf, but I'm not sure I want to target those three specific people.

Especially since two of the three called out (Not sure why the others on the wagon weren't, maybe because they kept out of the argument? Gotta re-read to be sure) previously risked a lynch. I'm not going to disregard it obviously, especially since Caoimhin was already in my sights, but still.

As of now I'm going to reiterate Gac3, since if they die and are revealed Town then Aventine gets free too in my eyes (I suspect them only because their defence of Gac3 doesn't look very reasoned- if Gac3 is town I doubt a wolf would stick out their neck like that), but in case a wagon on one of my other suspects (well, main suspects) picks up (Aventine, Lex-Kat, CaoimhinTheCape) it's likely that I'll switch my vote to try and lynch them.

Of course it's start of Day 2- there's plenty that can happen.

- - - Updated - - -

NOTE: The fact that I've got four people I'm willing to lynch doesn't mean the rest are considered Town- just that they are less likely to be wolves, for now. I highly doubt I can identify four wolves in a single day, especially since we don't actually know how many there are. We don't know, right?

If there are three of them than at least one on that list is wrong :p

Slight town lean, I like having a scumlist from somebody.

Uhm, did you read my posts from day 1? Ever since, like, Gac3's first post I've been suspicious of them, reiterating that thought every time something came up. I'm saying that my suspicion of Aventine are dependant on Gac3 being wolf- which means that if they are Town it's unlikely that Aventine is a wolf.

I'm gonna assume you didn't know since you weren't very active Day 1, thought it could be wrong. From what I understand you are generally little active, so it's more likely you didn't know or didn't remember.

- - - Updated - - -



Didn't I vote for Gac3 after EOD (not sure what it means but I'm assuming you mean past the dealine?)

- - - Updated - - -



Yes I did. Also @Duck999, it's clearly Gac3 the top of my main suspects :p

Had been this day 1 I'd be tempted to vote for her now.

If I'm not wrong it's because it can be a way to spread confusion and appear invested without doing anything noteworthy. Hopefully the experienced ones can answer better/correctly.

Something I'm not getting is, why ditching roleplay is wolfish?

Aren't you contradicting yourself? You said you would've "defended" Gac3 either way, more so if wolf, but also that as a wolf you would've targeted them. Or am I misreading?

The fact that they kept in mind that Snow was a wolf last game makes it strange that they wouldn't think that Jeen was a wolf too. As a mistake I find it strange, but possible. Especially after mentioning both the work and the exam (I mean especially possible).
The "real" reason turns out to be something completely or at least significantly different... Which makes it harder to believe the first mistake. I can excuse the solitary vote, though.
Also Gac3 was already catched in my first game for these kind of mistakes, if I recall correctly. Though that time it was much more apparent to everyone (and it was a special kind of game with Town factions against each other, but it was still a matter of two factions trying to kill each other)

Not sure why we should assume they did it intentionally? As you said, there would be no reason to do it.

Like AV said, depending on how they act tomorrow, things might change. As of now, convinced of their wolfiness.

Some actual content. We'll see how I feel about attacks on gac once gac responds (or doesn't) soon enough. I imagine it'll throw a lot of things into new light.

Uh, good catch- I thought the same thing but didn't consider that the culprits could be who was voting them at the time. This reinforces my belief about Gac3, although...

After reading AV's analisys of Duck's posts that had flown completely over my head I'm kind of conflicted. On one side I think that Gac3 appears more wolf then Duck999, on the other...

I get not joining discussions because you think they are too random (...sort of, it does defeat the point of the game) but given that duck thought I considered Gac to be Town it feels like they didn't even bother to read said discussions. Even if it wasn't wolfish (a bit blatantly) I don't really expect anything from a townie that plays like this. If I were to see a Duck bandwagon forming I could jump, depending on Gac's situation.

Of course Duck is a veteran player, so maybe I'm missing something, but AV's thoughts are the same barring the bit about not reading Day 1, and she is a far more experienced player then me. Both in playing this game and in playing with Duck.

Hopefully we'll get answers.

(No comment on Xi- I think Caoimhin is suspicious, so it makes little sense for me to suspect Xi for voting them. I should keep an eye out for her though, but that's a given for everyone)

On a completely unrelated note, I'm starting to love Vecna's snarky comments, assuming that's the correct adjective.

Lots of words, little to lean either way.

Very slight wolf lean. Valmark says so much, yet so little.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Xihirli ISO

Show

Same deal as with Valmark.

I'd like to vote for this Xihirli? character. That question mark after her name makes her sound suspicious.
And pretty.

*nods*

That was no lie!
I'm playing the long game.

Has JeenLeen been a villager yet?

Dive-bombing on a joke target to appear helpful so late in the day? CaoimhinTheCape just jumped to the top of my suspicion list.

I ended up jumping onto Cao for other reasons, and jumping off later. I'm still a bit suspicious of them, but not nearly so adamant as Xihirli is. Not sure what to make of this, or the fact that not much beyond this post has ever really come of it.

It is sunset

You guys totally betrayed me. I didn't betray you, I was never on your side. The betrayal is totally in your court, Snow.

Or was I!?

Not necessarily.

Hi, Elenna!

Wow that was an explosion.

I feel like there's a newbie wolf play on McGinty, rushing on there to get a bad wagon going. That's why I poked the newbie that jumped on her wagon.

If I'm being honest, half the reason I suspect Cao at all is because I've got a bit of faith in Xihirli's reading abilities. But that's a problem if Xihirli's the scum this time around. And as usual, I'm having a hell of a time reading anything off her.

I thought I was your villain buddy.

My read’s still the same. Newbie wolf piled onto the McGinty wagon, then jumped off once that was being called suspicious. Gonna vote for the same person once I’m off mobile.

I have returned. CaoimhinTheCape

If nobody else is doing it, the people who start it drop off. It happens in every game.

Aventine never defended me. It's odd to expect him to now.

Leaning scum, at least partially cuz I expect more from Xihirli. So few of these posts have anything to even engage with, and the ones that do don't have much. Saying so much, and saying so little.

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Alphabetical ISOs are done, at least for now.

[Duck999]

Yes I did. Also @Duck999, it's clearly Gac3 the top of my main suspects :p

I had just misread your current post as saying those other suspects were more suspicious. This makes a lot more sense then the way I read it.

In that case, you're not really suspicious enough for the vote at all. Speaking of which...

Okay. So I'll be real honest. This stuff blew up so fast. This thread currently has as many pages as a game I've been playing in for months. I had a calculus test Wednesday and am still working full time. So I'll catch up on this thread tonight since I'm off. Then I'll try to come up with some insights. For now I'm following my instincts and saying Mrs. McGinty

I get being busy, but voting for one of the most active players (which means lots to analyze) based on instincts with no further explanation is absolutely fishy. There's also no follow up yet, which could be timezones or something, but I think out of the current players this puts gac3 as one of the more suspicious. It probably helps that I have now reread some of day 1's analysis too. I'd love to hear the follow up, gac3. What specifically stood out?

@Duck999, why did you join the Logan wagon?

As I've said, day one analysis isn't really my thing. I absolutely agree that discussion on day one helps, but I've never been the biggest poster and have never had strong reads day one. I try to end day one voting for someone who isn't participating as much. Also, to touch on my bias against day one analysis, it isn't as much that I have something against it, but rather that I find the "strong" reads people form rarely hold up and probably should never be presented as strong reads.

Of course Duck is a veteran player, so maybe I'm missing something, but AV's thoughts are the same barring the bit about not reading Day 1, and she is a far more experienced player then me. Both in playing this game and in playing with Duck.

If being a veteran player makes you think I'm good at this game I have bad news for you. In all seriousness though games in this forum haven't been this active in a long time and I'm having a lot of difficult keeping up.

[Snowblaze]

Oh boy, what a day start... let's take a minute of silence for JeenLeen, one of the only two neighbours I was quite positive they weren't a wolf.

At this point, gac3 is still one of my main suspects for the reasons already exposed, and the lack of activity toward the end of the day doesn't mitigate at all my suspicions. (maybe sidelined by the other wolves after that mistake?) (EDIT: didn't see the message of him saying he was busy)

Assuming gac3 is a wolf, let's look again at the incriminating post.

The compromising nature of the message, from my point of view, indicates a certain connection with JeenLeen or Snowblaze. JeenLeen wasn't a wolf, and this leaves Snowblaze.
There are a few other reasons to suspect her as well: the premature vagon on AvatarVecna (with a not particularly strong justification), her defensive attitude at the beginning, the vote on Unavenger at the end (this one, taken alone, doesn't mean much, given the heated argument) and, of course, the execution of JeenLeen.

About the execution of JeenLeen, if Snowblaze was a wolf, it would have been quite incautious from her to kill one of her accusers (especially after that night post), but what if she could send to the slaughterhouse a perfectly raised scapegoat? I'm talking about CaoimhinTheCape, who found himself both in the vagon of Unavenger and in the last suspect list of JeenLeen; not only that, even earlier suspicion about him was fueled, as we can see from the following post from Aventine (whose behavior in the first day was in general quite shady, if you ask me).

If we look both at Snowblaze and Aventine as wolves, an interesting light is shed on their tiff at the beginning of the game, a way to muddy the water, it would seem.

To a lesser extent, Mrs McGinty and AvatarVecna are subjects of my suspicions too: regarding the former, I'm still set on my earlier considerations; the latter has been quite unreadable for me during the first day (this kind of ambiguity bugs me), but the way she jumped on the Unavanger train right after CaoimhinTheCape (scapegoat?) got me thinking.

Seems towny to me. Just like to point out that day one is usually a lot less active than this, and once wagons form, theyÂ’re generally there to stay. This means that in a hypothetical scenario where me, Aventine and gac3 are wolves there would have been a high chance that IÂ’d get lynched day one for not much gain. So I find that unlikely.


Also on your other points regarding me:

I canÂ’t really say much on the RNG vote at the beginning. It was genuinely random, but I canÂ’t prove it.

I was defending myself because (as I said earlier) I thought that there was a decent chance of my being lynched, and I didnÂ’t want to be lynched for no valid reason.

I do actually agree on Caoimhin possibly being a scapegoat, but if that was my plan wouldnÂ’t I have been voting for them day two instead of AV?

And my killing JeenLeen to avoid accusations... I donÂ’t think that would have worked. Because what they were doing, anyone could do - itÂ’s more or less what you have done.

Spoiler: Snowblaze ISO

Show

Null. It could be a wolf starting a wagon on an acceptable target with a "lolrandom" justification, but it could also just be a townie rolling dice or whatever.



This seems unreasonably salty given the game had been going for like 5 minutes and barely anybody had even voted yet. Null.



Slight town lean. I like these answers.



Suspected JeenLeen, was wrong. Super-weak scum lean, but I'll keep this post in mind for later just in case...



Null.



Null.



Null. Could see anybody asking this question of that behavior.











Null. Not much to work with here, despite so many words.



You'll learn in time. Not punishing inactivity and punishing activity teaches people not to play. The only solution is to burn the inactives at the stake use pressure votes to encourage people to post more, because garbage content is better than no content.



Looks worse in hindsight. Slight scum lean.



Slight town lean, I'm a sucker for a read-list. I like the mentioned weirdness about Valmark's switching.



Null. They're wrong about the lynch being wasted, but I've already stated my case about why we shouldn't let inactives auto-lynch.



QFT. Null read.



Worse in hindsight.



Some solid questions, and still looks worse in hindsight. Null.



Null.



Null.



Null.



Oh hey it's okay they apologized to the dead villager for deathtunneling them it's okay guys.



Null.



I love a good read list. Town-leaning.



Slightly town leaning, I like this question. Of course it's less because it's inherently a good question as much as because it maybe prods Duck into participating but who knows.



Null.



Null.

Slight wolf lean in general, made worse by how they focused Unavenger (and how that turned out). I might be biased in favor of hindsight, though.

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Unavenger has been declared town by death/narrator. This is for perspective on their thoughts, but more will be learned by what others thought of them than vice versa.

Spoiler: Unavenger ISO

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Early D1 jokes. Not much to analyze.



This continues being a thing. rogue_alchemist needs to post more. But then, so does everybody else.



This post did not sit well with me at all at the time. It's almost textbook definition of "looking more helpful than you are". Probably should've let it go, though...



Null.



Looks better in hindsight. Some useful thoughts scattered through the ISO. More people twigging onto gac3...



Joke.



Still looks real bad even in hindsight. "Wolves have way more reason to get salty about wagons than villagers do, which is why you should think im a villager for getting so salty about this wagon!" I mean it kind helps that I get salty a lot when I die as villager, so I didn't really agree with this post the first time around...



*cries in JeenLeen*





They're not wrong.



...and below here is where they give up and just accept the inevitable death. They all read basically the same and we don't get any real analysis or reactions from it. We get their core scum list which is nice, but it's difficult to say any of it's definitely true at this point. It's strong suspicions fueled by death-salt.

I still think we should test out at least one of these three people. MMG and Snowblaze are my preferences, but we'd learn a lot from lynching Cao even if they turn out to be town.

Yeah... I was wrong about the Unavenger thing. I guess I didnÂ’t really explain the reasoning for my initial vote there clearly enough, and I saw their suspicions of me as unjustified.

That made me kind of angry. I still wouldnÂ’t say I was death-tunnelling, but I was being too aggressive and not considering all the possibilities. They did look wolfy at the time, but I didnÂ’t really give serious thought to their being town.

The speed of the thread at that point meant I could hardly think before I posted, and I should have taken the time to sit back and think about it rationally instead of making assumptions.

- - - Updated - - -

I’m getting a bit more of a town read from AV now, so I’ll move on to the next on my suspect list, Libro, and get to work on updating my reads list.

[gac3]

Okay so immediate thoughts before I keep looking for more to go off of.

First the only read I feel like I can comment on in my initial search through is AV stating that they find Rogue Alchemist wolfy due to inactivity but in my experience, they are one of the more inactive players so I am not sure I would read much into it.

Spoiler: Explaining Day 1

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Now about my day one vote. I get that in my rush to post before work or maybe I was already at work, I honestly lost track of day 1 really quickly with how much it exploded, I made a statement that didn't logically make sense. However I can try to address some of the points about it.

Snowblaze/Jeenleen had no evidence. Early on I'm not used to considering there to be any true evidence day one until after the fact when we have at least one confirmed wolf/town. I wanted to vote Snowblaze for two reasons. 1st. is the one I stated. How they played last game. Nobody to my knowledge suspected them of being a wolf. With no power roles, I don't see why they would be any different this time around. I know that that is next to nothing but again, I'm used to day 1 not being based on much of anything besides "let's vote and see how wagons sway." That said, one of the major ways I've seen day one wagons form is based on "they pulled this stunt last game" and maybe its more suspicious from me because snowblaze didn't "pull a stunt" as much as just pull a move that had everybody saying "snowblaze probably isn't a wolf because they did that" which I found to be a stunt because I focused on it every time it was mentioned. The second reason, which I didn't state in my rush is because RNG or not, starting a wagon with the second vote of the game is super suspicious to me. They do always claim to use a RNG, even when they were a wolf last game. I'm not sure why they wouldn't roll again in that instance but it was something to go off of. I didn't vote for snowblaze because I hate day 1. I know it's not very towny to hate day one. But I just feel so bad about the logic of killing someone day 1 when there is no evidence of anything until after the first death. I try to avoid wagons day 1. I know that's not very towny but it's how I've played and I've been working to get over that little thing. So I went for Jeenleen whom I voted for based on similar "I have nothing to go off of except seeing how well they played as a wolf last time" and planning to switch off later once I saw more posts.

Then the thread exploded and I couldn't keep up with my calculus studying. So I kind of bailed most of day 1, putting a token vote on Mrs. Mcginty mainly because were acting so weird. No weird I guess. They reminded me of AV. But Mrs. Mcginty was new to my knowledge. Apparently this isn't true? I don't expect new people to post like AV. Day two I started with Mrs. Mcginty again because AV had started the vote and I still felt off about them. Honestly still do so I'm going to keep searching for evidence until I find a better suspect.

I totally get if this doesn't make me look more town. I have a habit of making myself look more wolf, the more I try to explain I am town. Honestly I was hoping for a crack at being a wolf this time around, oh well.

Spoiler: What would a wolf do

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So like I said, I haven't been tracking day 1. Now in this game though, I'm trying to think of wolf logic. Were I a wolf this game, I would want everyone to vote differently. Spread wolf votes out as much as possible. With this many people the only reason for a wolf to double up day 1 is if one looks likely to be lynched. So i'll go look for evidence of a rather large lynch swing but if anyone has any already, feel free to let me know. Honestly I would lean more towards people who voted in small groups. It draws too much attention to be the only one to vote someone or to be in a wagon. So if I were a wolf, I would push the wolves to keep their votes on someone who only has a vote or two. So I'll go look and see who that would make look wolfy by that logic.

Edit: by that logic the following people would be the least likely:
Snowblaze, AvatarVecna, Mrs. McGinty, CaoimhinTheCape, Libro
And then most people only had a single vote so it wouldn't look that suspicious honestly to be one of them. So I'd say they are equally as likely as the small wagons. So i'll start trying to see if my only slightly narrowed list has any likely suspects.

Spoiler: Unavenger

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Unavenger Called out Caomhin, Snowblaze and MMG. All three of which were voting for them. Now They had six votes. Again, that big of a concentration, I would expect no more than one wolf on this list max. I would only really expect that if they were a the first person to vote unavenger. So I doubt the three referenced are wolves when looking at that, especially since Jeenleen backed this suspicion up and then died. So if I was a wolf I wouldn't have been on the wagon and if I was one of the listed and Jeenleen said that, I wouldn't have killed them. So I"m temporarily removing the three from my suspect list. For the time being, I'm going to also give AV, Libro and Aventine the benefit of the doubt.

Unavenger and Jeenleen are cleared and dead. I know I am town. I think Logan didn't vote? That doesn't sound like a surprise. They feel like a nonentity so far. Looking at the vote tallys (not the list of players) this looks like it would leave Xihiril, Rogue Alchemist, Captain Cap, Lex-Kat, Kagato and Duck999. Now to go see if I can come up with any analysis of them.

Honestly of the people listed above my main suspect is Xihiril. They have been more active in multiple games I've played with them and I'm not satisfied with their current vote justification. It sounds like they are saying "Nothing has changed since day 1 so neither should my vote" and honestly the only people who nothing would have changed for is a wolf as far as I can tell. The last time I remember seeing them post like this in a mafia game was when they were the madman in the cruise. Though if somebody else has more insight, I welcome it. I might have just paid more attention that game to Xihiril because I thought they were a traitor from day 1.

I keep getting this feeling like I'm some kind of veteran player but honestly while I've done several now, I don't feel like my play has improved. I still tend to be a huge suspect early on. If I remember right, the game where Caerulea helped town score a perfect win was the only one I've lasted past night 2.

[Snowblaze]

Seconding that point about Xihirli playing similarly to RAC... but that's the only game I've played with her until now so I don't really know what to expect from town!Xihirli. Not voting there yet, but I'll go through and see if I can add her to my suspect list.

Nitpicking because I can't help it - we lynched you day three in RAC, so you lived past day two. And you did better than me in SpongeBob - you were very right about Caerulea.

And another nitpick - who is Xihiril? I don't remember them being on the player list.

[Captain Cap]

My point regarding gac was that if it was a mistake, then it's a null tell. The thought that it made him look like a wolf is based on the idea that it was intentional. But why would he ever except to get away with that? And what would he have hoped to gain? It fails the "would a wolf actually do this" test. Only way I could see it is a panicked miscalculation, and I don't see that given the circumstances. But it can be spun to look bad. And making a good, or at least good-seeming, argument against a townie? That's good for wolves. That's why I called it low-hanging fruit, and it's also why wolf-me would have done the same thing.

And that's why I'm suspicious of the people that jumped on what gac said. It didn't make sense for wolf-gac to do that intentionally, but it makes a lot of sense for other wolves to jump on it.

"And what he would have hoped to gain?"

Maybe to plant a seed of apparent distrust between him and Snowblaze or him and JeenLeen.
Nothing too elaborate, to not stand out too much at the beginning (failed for the mistake), but still there, to potentially muddy waters in the later stages of the game.

"But why would he ever except to get away with that?"

He didn't... it was mistake and, usually, we don't make them voluntarily. He looked for a reason to choose JeenLeen (or any other, from my point of view) instead of Snowblaze, supposed wolf buddy.
The fact that the mistake was made, I think, it was because gac3 didn't put much thought into it, given the real purpose of the post wasn't to make an excuse to vote JeenLeen, but to write that Snowblaze was one of the possible choices.

Apart from that, I still find interesting that you're defending gac3 more than they're doing themself. You've already given your reasons for that, so I'm not asking you to repeat yourself, I just can't shake off the feeling that your conduct is quite odd.

Seems towny to me. Just like to point out that day one is usually a lot less active than this, and once wagons form, theyÂ’re generally there to stay. This means that in a hypothetical scenario where me, Aventine and gac3 are wolves there would have been a high chance that IÂ’d get lynched day one for not much gain. So I find that unlikely.


Also on your other points regarding me:

I canÂ’t really say much on the RNG vote at the beginning. It was genuinely random, but I canÂ’t prove it.

I was defending myself because (as I said earlier) I thought that there was a decent chance of my being lynched, and I didnÂ’t want to be lynched for no valid reason.

I do actually agree on Caoimhin possibly being a scapegoat, but if that was my plan wouldnÂ’t I have been voting for them day two instead of AV?

And my killing JeenLeen to avoid accusations... I donÂ’t think that would have worked. Because what they were doing, anyone could do - itÂ’s more or less what you have done.








Yeah... I was wrong about the Unavenger thing. I guess I didnÂ’t really explain the reasoning for my initial vote there clearly enough, and I saw their suspicions of me as unjustified.

That made me kind of angry. I still wouldnÂ’t say I was death-tunnelling, but I was being too aggressive and not considering all the possibilities. They did look wolfy at the time, but I didnÂ’t really give serious thought to their being town.

The speed of the thread at that point meant I could hardly think before I posted, and I should have taken the time to sit back and think about it rationally instead of making assumptions.

"I do actually agree on Caoimhin possibly being a scapegoat, but if that was my plan wouldnÂ’t I have been voting for them day two instead of AV?"

Obviously, if Caoihmin is a scapegoat, they were chosen after Mrs McGinty's vagon, when Aventine started raising suspicions about him. Moreover, getting rid of him early on wouldn't make much sense: a scapegoat is better served when it gets fat, the more it stays in the game, the more the true wolves can benefit from the deflection.

And why voting AvatarVecna? Well, because, as you said yourself, the first vagons tend to be quite lethal, and the wolves probably deemed her dangerous (and I can see why, given her latest analysis posts).

"The speed of the thread at that point meant I could hardly think before I posted, and I should have taken the time to sit back and think about it rationally instead of making assumptions."

That's fair and relatable.

[gac3]

Seconding that point about Xihirli playing similarly to RAC... but that's the only game I've played with her until now so I don't really know what to expect from town!Xihirli. Not voting there yet, but I'll go through and see if I can add her to my suspect list.

Nitpicking because I can't help it - we lynched you day three in RAC, so you lived past day two. And you did better than me in SpongeBob - you were very right about Caerulea.

And another nitpick - who is Xihiril? I don't remember them being on the player list.

To be fair with Spongebob, it becomes super easy to play the game when someone comes and says "you guys are all town, here is a list of the wolves." It didn't take long to confirm things. Once I knew who was who, it was all a matter of math to figure out who should be killed when.

[Snowblaze]

@Captain Cap, a couple of questions.

1. Do you agree with me that in your hypothetical scenario Aventine wouldn’t have voted me and gac3 wouldn’t have said they would because I could have been lynched?

2. You’re basing all your logic on the assumption that gac3 is a wolf. What if they’re town? Who would be your suspects then?

[Valmark]

Kind of conflicted here- I'd like to accept Gac's post but, dunno, I'm not that convinced. It's a good point about Xihirli, the second I see this Day. As I said I can't really judge her for the first one, but this is pretty relevant. Still wouldn't vote for her though.

I'm gonna call Lex-Kat out because she still hasn't replied to my questions. At this point I'm guessing she's just little active and not paying attention, similar to Duck. Which isn't a plus, but is not quite as bad. If Lex's next post doesn't address the matter that's it though.

On the same vein, @Duck999: I can't help but notice that you didn't bother to answer the full post. Is that because you don't have a reply, you didn't feel like answering or, dunno, any other reason?

[Snowblaze]

Reads list updated!

Definitely town: Snowblaze, still.

Probably town: Mrs McGinty (I haven't seen anything that makes them suspicious, and they're definitely giving us lots to analyse!)

Aventine: see yesterday. I haven't seen anything that changes my read here.

Captain Cap: I like their thoughts, but they're focusing too much on gac3 IMO. I don't think that necessarily makes them a wolf, though.

No read/null read:
AvatarVecna (nope, still can't read them. Their logic makes sense, even if I don't agree with it, but they're a good enough player to be a wolf anyway.)

CaoimhinTheCape: I'm not convinced they're town, but after what gac3 said it does feel like they're a scapegoat.

Duck999: I'm less suspicious than I was before given their explanation of the Logan vote; waiting for more content to make a better judgement.

Haven't posted enough:
Logan1996
Rogue_alchemist
Lex-Kat


Suspicious:

Xihirli: is playing similarly to RAC, and is only really suspecting one player... that being said, I may be more paranoid than usual around Xihirli.

gac3: my read hasn't really changed, and I'm still not sure what to make of them. Hoping for more to analyse so I can actually get an idea.

Valmark: as explained in my suspicions list earlier.

Libro: also, see suspicions list.


(For reference, my suspicion list is post 244 and my day one read list is post 172.)

[Mrs McGinty]

I'm not going to do any kind of detailed analysis of AV today. No hope of approaching it without bias at this point. Too dangerous ever to be fully trusted, but has passed clean through my Valley of Deep Suspicions, over the River of Raging Paranoia, and into the sunny uplands of Yeahyoucanjustbeatownie. If scum, I can only take my hat off.

[Captain Cap]

@Captain Cap, a couple of questions.

1. Do you agree with me that in your hypothetical scenario Aventine wouldn’t have voted me and gac3 wouldn’t have said they would because I could have been lynched?

2. You’re basing all your logic on the assumption that gac3 is a wolf. What if they’re town? Who would be your suspects then?

1. I don't really agree:
gac3 didn't vote you and didn't even give any reason to vote you, he just wrote "I want to vote Snowblaze": the move doesn't strike me as particularly risky for you. Not only that, he actually voted on JeenLeen, who started the wagon on you.
When Aventine voted you, it became 3 on AvatarVecna (from Unavenger, you and kgato503, not counting the self-vote) vs 3 on you (from Mrs McGinty, JeenLeen and Aventine); if things turned badly, they could have simply switched vote.
I'm not saying there was no risk for you, but I think it was well within a good stunt.

2. More than reasoning on single people, I focus myself on scenarios, the following ones are some of the most plausible for me:

gac3 is a wolf, and I already delined the ramifications. What if it's false? Let's go on then.

At least one (and no more than one) of the people accused by JeenLeen (in the night post) is a wolf: at least one because it feels wrong to just let go anyone involved; no more than one because then killing JeenLeen would have been too incautious from the wolves.
If gac3 is an innocent townfolk, Mrs McGinty and Caoihmin (scapegoat thesis weakens) take the precedence over you.

At least one of the people on Unavenger train is a wolf: he had six votes and was town, I would be really surprised otherwise.
Likely suspects if gac3 is innocent: Mrs McGinty, Caoihmin, Aventine (due to connection with Mrs McGinty) and Libro (scarce activity).

There is at least one lurking wolf: sometimes the better defense is to stay hidden (maybe).
From this category I'd pick Libro (see above), Duck999 (I didn't like his position on D1 discussions: they are basically the only means of survival for townsfolk at the beginning, especially with no powers available) or rogue_alchemist (if and especially if gac3 is town, given he voted him without a reasonable explanation), who has the lowest post count at the moment (not considering Logan1996, deep in his coma at the local infirmary).

I conclude removing AvatarVecna from my suspects list: the more she post, the more she seems a good person, and overall I see a positive contribution to our honest little town from her.

[Xihirli]

I feel as though I have let you all down. And I apologize. But my big show is waiting on a flip! The flip of CaoimhinTheCape.

Unavenger has persuaded me to switch to CaoimhinTheCape.
He's also invigorated my suspicion of Snowblaze. And I'm still suspicious of McGinty. But none of them are close to dying, so no reason to vote for them now.

...on deaths of auto-lynchees: I think, in power games, it benefits the town for a person who would auto-lynch to die, but I can see wanting the intel. Since we can't gain intel via night actions, but the wolves do kill us at night, seems good to let lynches give intel rather than be nigh-meaningless.

Also, are we doing 24-hour nights or 48-hour? Without night powers, the extra time seems less needed, and I've seen that as standard in some games in the far past.

- - - Updated - - -

As I didn't quote it, this post was the one that persuaded me: https://forums.giantitp.com/showsing...&postcount=180

If Caoimhin flips wolf, we learn something big! We learn why JeenLeen was killed. A new wolf player who wants to have there be one less towner who suspects them. Probably!
If Caoimhin flips town, we learn something big! We learn why JeenLeen was killed. An experienced player who knows that Jeen's been in a lot of the new crop of games and has made it very far in all of them (to my knowledge), and so killed Jeen in the interest of letting more people play. That's something I consider when killing townies. I'd suspect me pretty hard if Caoimhin flipped town.
If Cao flips wolf, we're dealing with several newer players.
If Cao flips town, we've got at least one more experienced wolf.

Now it could be RNG, or 4-dimensional 3D hyperchess, but those are my two reads on the wolf faction as a whole and before I'll have a suspect list worth reading I need Caoimhin's flip.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I still think we should test out at least one of these three people. MMG and Snowblaze are my preferences, but we'd learn a lot from lynching Cao even if they turn out to be town.

What would you learn from my death when I come up town? I would understand if it actually gives info, but I'd worry about lynching someone as a "test". If we're wrong we lose a townie and there better be a lot of info gained to make it worth a death.

If Caoimhin flips wolf, we learn something big! We learn why JeenLeen was killed. A new wolf player who wants to have there be one less towner who suspects them. Probably!
If Caoimhin flips town, we learn something big! We learn why JeenLeen was killed. An experienced player who knows that Jeen's been in a lot of the new crop of games and has made it very far in all of them (to my knowledge), and so killed Jeen in the interest of letting more people play. That's something I consider when killing townies. I'd suspect me pretty hard if Caoimhin flipped town.
If Cao flips wolf, we're dealing with several newer players.
If Cao flips town, we've got at least one more experienced wolf.

If I'm reading this right, I turn up wolf then we have an answer for Jeen's death.

I turn up town... then the wolves are experienced players? Does this narrow your suspect list down at all? This is my first game in a while and everyone feels more experienced to me, so I'm genuinely curious who is considered more experienced players here.

You also say that "we've got at least one more experienced wolf" which sounds like the wolf team could be some experienced players and some newer ones. Which all reads to me as losing a townie for little info.

Who would my (town) death make you suspect?

---

gac3 - 2 (Captain Cap, Duck999)
Avatar Vecna - 1 (Snowblaze)
Mrs McGinty - 1 (Avatar Vecna)
CaoimhinTheCape - 1 (Xihirli)
Xihirli - 2 (Mrs MCGinty, gac3)
rogue_alchemist - 3 (Aventine, CaoimhinTheCape, kgato503)
Lex-Kat - 1 (Valmark)

---

Other notes:
Logan 1996 to be autolynched by EOD


rogue_alchemist, Libro, Lex-Kat have not posted at all. We have one day left:

Day 2 will end 11am EST March 30th.

[Snowblaze]

Inevitable nitpick: I’m now voting for Libro.

That aside, I agree with your analysis here. My suspicions of Xihirli have intensified. Seriously considering changing my vote.

[Valmark]

What would you learn from my death when I come up town? I would understand if it actually gives info, but I'd worry about lynching someone as a "test". If we're wrong we lose a townie and there better be a lot of info gained to make it worth a death.

I turn up town... then the wolves are experienced players? Does this narrow your suspect list down at all? This is my first game in a while and everyone feels more experienced to me, so I'm genuinely curious who is considered more experienced players here.

You also say that "we've got at least one more experienced wolf" which sounds like the wolf team could be some experienced players and some newer ones. Which all reads to me as losing a townie for little info.

Who would my (town) death make you suspect?

Well, if you die and are revealed Town, then those that bandwagoned you D1 become much more suspicious, like me or Xi as she said herself. Not that I agree with killing people as a test, unless said people are my suspects (meaning that since I'm already thinking they could be wolves I'm willing to lynch them anyway)

People that are considered experienced players here... I think it's AV, Xi, Jeen, Duck, possibly Gac3... Aventine probably. I'm a relatively fresh player, thus I'm not sure who are considered veterans here. In perspective it should be everyone else for me, but that's a minor detail.

Of course I can't speak for Xi, this is my own take.

[Xihirli]

If I can't kill people as a test then when can I kill them?

[Duck999]

On the same vein, @Duck999: I can't help but notice that you didn't bother to answer the full post. Is that because you don't have a reply, you didn't feel like answering or, dunno, any other reason?

The reason is that it was ~2 or 2:30 AM and I honestly didn't even think to respond to that part. I assume you're talking about this?

I get not joining discussions because you think they are too random (...sort of, it does defeat the point of the game) but given that duck thought I considered Gac to be Town it feels like they didn't even bother to read said discussions. Even if it wasn't wolfish (a bit blatantly) I don't really expect anything from a townie that plays like this. If I were to see a Duck bandwagon forming I could jump, depending on Gac's situation.

I read through all of day 1 before posting on day 1, but, as I said, this is far more activity than I had gotten used to on this forum so I definitely started to lost track of things, especially by the time day 2 began. I thought I still had a grasp on people's thoughts from day 1 but I clearly had forgotten some things. I will be paying more attention as I start to get the hang of the pace of this game.

Then the thread exploded and I couldn't keep up with my calculus studying. So I kind of bailed most of day 1, putting a token vote on Mrs. Mcginty mainly because were acting so weird. No weird I guess. They reminded me of AV. But Mrs. Mcginty was new to my knowledge. Apparently this isn't true? I don't expect new people to post like AV. Day two I started with Mrs. Mcginty again because AV had started the vote and I still felt off about them. Honestly still do so I'm going to keep searching for evidence until I find a better suspect.

I'm confused here. Are you saying you were suspicious of McGinty because of the resemblance to AV, meaning you are suspicious of AV as well? But then you followed AV's vote. Can you explain what I'm missing here?

[Snowblaze]

If I can't kill people as a test then when can I kill them?

When you have reasonable evidence that they’re a wolf. Or, alternatively, when you are a wolf.

Also, I have to ask: how on earth can hyper-chess be simultaneously three- and four-dimensional?

On a more serious note, are you going to respond to people’s suspicions of you?

[Valmark]

The reason is that it was ~2 or 2:30 AM and I honestly didn't even think to respond to that part. I assume you're talking about this?



I read through all of day 1 before posting on day 1, but, as I said, this is far more activity than I had gotten used to on this forum so I definitely started to lost track of things, especially by the time day 2 began. I thought I still had a grasp on people's thoughts from day 1 but I clearly had forgotten some things. I will be paying more attention as I start to get the hang of the pace of this game.



I'm confused here. Are you saying you were suspicious of McGinty because of the resemblance to AV, meaning you are suspicious of AV as well? But then you followed AV's vote. Can you explain what I'm missing here?

Mhm, alright, I get it. Got any particular thought on anyone?

I think Gac3 was saying that they voted Ginty because they looked like AV but were new and Gac3 doesn't expect someone new to act like that.
And then Gac followed AV's vote because Ginty still felt off to them.

[Xihirli]

When you have reasonable evidence that they’re a wolf. Or, alternatively, when you are a wolf.

Also, I have to ask: how on earth can hyper-chess be simultaneously three- and four-dimensional?

On a more serious note, are you going to respond to people’s suspicions of you?

It's HYPERchess.

The suspicions have sound arguments and well-supported reasons. Crack me open and take a look at the prize in the middle if you think you have a good reason to.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

If I can't kill people as a test then when can I kill them?

Look, if you're getting information from my lynch, I understand the reasoning.

But the way I read your "test" is that if I come up town then there is at least one experienced mafia player as a wolf. I don't see how this narrows down the suspect list.

Testing can help the town but please explain how this mislynch would help town. Lynching someone for "information" and then not getting information seems wolfish to me.

Well, if you die and are revealed Town, then those that bandwagoned you D1 become much more suspicious, like me or Xi as she said herself.

Val's reason makes sense to me. But that is also a long list of most of the active players. To me, this "test" doesn't seem to be helpful to the town and just comes across as lynching someone but learning nothing.

[gac3]

From Duck

I'm confused here. Are you saying you were suspicious of McGinty because of the resemblance to AV, meaning you are suspicious of AV as well? But then you followed AV's vote. Can you explain what I'm missing here?

I admit it's not a well thought out suspicious. It's more a hunch. Not one worth lynching over probably. But AV plays a rather wild game. The more they are all "let's vote Avatar Vecna" the more confused I get. Though it's normally because they are town and it helps get information out. Now seeing someone else playing in a similarly chaotic way but without seeing what felt like... Claims to justify the actions, seemed suspicious. More so if they were new. They aren't new so this might just be how they play and I'm not used to it from them yet.

The lack of real justification is also why I haven't tried to push for them and have switched off.

[Xihirli]

Oh, it wouldn't help a lot. You flipping wolf is way better. But hey! That's a better town-flip than any of the others.

[Lex-Kat]

What can you do to convince me I'm barking up the wrong tree here?

I've never been all that active of a player. Well... I was more active my first few years playing. But I slowed down a lot just before I left. I am watching using my phone, as my laptop is annoying to start up each day. But to type up the lengthy comments like what a lot of you are doing (and what I am doing now, using that laptop) would be too annoying to do via mobile.

I'm gonna call Lex-Kat out because she still hasn't replied to my questions.

And the reason I even opened my laptop was to find, then answer, this question:

I mean, I'm not worried because it's one vote, but is there a specific reason for choosing me?

The reason I voted for you was because I don't like being a party to Day 1 lynches. I know they are vital, but unless there is hard evidence, which is a rarity, I generally have always voted away from the lynch mob. As you had zero votes on you at the time, and I gave no reason for anyone to follow my vote, I had hoped, rightfully so, that no one would follow and create a new bandwagon on you.

Now, if you don't mind, I'm voting for Duck999, for gut instinct alone. I am no good at analyzing anything until late game. So I usually don't try. You can ask those who played with me before, if they remember, but this is how I've played before I left.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm not going to do any kind of detailed analysis of AV today. No hope of approaching it without bias at this point. Too dangerous ever to be fully trusted, but has passed clean through my Valley of Deep Suspicions, over the River of Raging Paranoia, and into the sunny uplands of Yeahyoucanjustbeatownie. If scum, I can only take my hat off.

I'd still like to see your analysis of the big-post-count players, including myself. As I've already stated, analyzing all the small-post-count players first analyzes a number of players but a comparatively small percentage of posts doesn't exactly improve my impression of you.

I feel as though I have let you all down. And I apologize. But my big show is waiting on a flip! The flip of CaoimhinTheCape.



If Caoimhin flips wolf, we learn something big! We learn why JeenLeen was killed. A new wolf player who wants to have there be one less towner who suspects them. Probably!
If Caoimhin flips town, we learn something big! We learn why JeenLeen was killed. An experienced player who knows that Jeen's been in a lot of the new crop of games and has made it very far in all of them (to my knowledge), and so killed Jeen in the interest of letting more people play. That's something I consider when killing townies. I'd suspect me pretty hard if Caoimhin flipped town.
If Cao flips wolf, we're dealing with several newer players.
If Cao flips town, we've got at least one more experienced wolf.

Now it could be RNG, or 4-dimensional 3D hyperchess, but those are my two reads on the wolf faction as a whole and before I'll have a suspect list worth reading I need Caoimhin's flip.

We don't need Cao to flip to know that. The wolves are either inexperienced or are playing at being inexperienced (and the difference is difficult to determine without knowing who the wolves are). When you have a suspicion-sink like JeenLeen on town, you leave him alone for the whole game - if JL made it to D3, I can't speak for anybody else but I probably would've pushed a wagon on them hard just for principle. I joked about it earlier, but statistically speaking JeenLeen is a wolf, and should be treated carefully until you know for sure otherwise.

What would you learn from my death when I come up town? I would understand if it actually gives info, but I'd worry about lynching someone as a "test". If we're wrong we lose a townie and there better be a lot of info gained to make it worth a death.

D1 was full of wagons and counterwagons. Any big wagon dying gives town good info to act on regardless of how they flip, because it tells us something about the wagons they were competing with. If you flip town, then the wagon that formed before yours is more likely to be a wolf (like, your wagon formed as a counterwagon to a wolf wagon). If you flip wolf, then the wagon after yours is probably a town wagon that wolves were helping in order to get you out of the lynch. We learn something significant regardless.

You were the opposing wagon at different times to Mrs McGinty, Logan1996, and Unavenger (Logan1996 was also an opposing wagon to Unavenger at the time, but solely for being inactive and doing nothing). Unavenger has already flipped town, and Logan is getting lynched today one way or the other, so that leaves McGinty, whose wagon was on the way out right as yours was on the way in. However you flip, it says something significant about the wagons you were competing with, and while at this point that's only McGinty, more info on McGinty is something I very much want right now. I'm not used to being on this side of the nonsense and it's making me paranoid.

Here's an order of people I want to see flip for the info their death would bring, from most to least, as well as how I viewed them during ISOs:

• CaoimhinTheCape
• Mrs McGinty
• Logan1996 (I'm getting this one regardless today)
• Xihirli
• gac3
• Aventine
• Snowblaze

You lynching gives me the most information, I think, but I also suspect you're town, and Logan1996 flipping will give me a bit of info on you anyway. This is why I'm voting McGinty currently, and why my backup is Logan1996 if I don't like the existing wagons. I'd be up for switching to a Xihirli wagon, provided McGinty actually finished their ISOs (barring any serious scum pings).

[Valmark]

And the reason I even opened my laptop was to find, then answer, this question:
The reason I voted for you was because I don't like being a party to Day 1 lynches. I know they are vital, but unless there is hard evidence, which is a rarity, I generally have always voted away from the lynch mob. As you had zero votes on you at the time, and I gave no reason for anyone to follow my vote, I had hoped, rightfully so, that no one would follow and create a new bandwagon on you.

Alright, I can understand this. When you wrote that you didn't want to lynch McGinty I thought it was "I want to keep them alive and thus I'm gonna try to lynch someone else", which didn't have much sense.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Current Votes

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CaoimhinTheCape

gac3

Xihirli

rogue_alchemist

rogue_alchemist

rogue_alchemist

Libro

[QUOTE=gac3;24424016]Xihiril.

Lex-Kat

Duck999

If we're going to lynch an inactive player for being inactive, we may as well do so in a way that minimizes our losses. A wagon on rogue_alchemist might get them to speak up, but if it doesn't two inactives die tonight and the most we'll have gained is a bit of knowledge on why the wolves might've been on board with lynching Logan D1, which we were going to gain regardless.

Xihirli