Midwest Mafia/Werewolf

[Valmark]

Valmark

Do you have much experience as scum?

Irl? It's how I get along. Quote. I'm basically what you get when you combine the protagonists from Death Death Devil Devil Evil Evil Song and Wolf in Sheep's Clothing.

Here? Tecnically I was always Town, but the first game featured wolf-styled town factions that were out to kill each other, so it's debatable.

Something that just struck me as odd: kgato's post here, which I'm finding hard to quote and keep the context so I"m linking to.

kgato, Snowblaze, and I were all wolves last game. So his statement, not mentioning himself as part of trio, seems odd.
But, if he were wolf, probably not something he'd mention in the first place since it'd be risky in that it could draw attention to him if someone pointed that out. So, despite the oddness, maybe townish? Or wolf appearing town-helpful? That gets into WIFOM. So I'll let more experienced Mafia-analyst delve into that post.

To be fair, since Gac3 (I think it was Gac3?) explicitely called out you and Snow, so it should be correct to only talk about them. It is a good doubt though.

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Too much to quote

Oh I see. Don't think I'll ever do it, but it's helpful to know it's not so wolfy. Still keeping Gac3 in mind though. Like everyone else, really.

[Mrs McGinty]

Irl? It's how I get along. Quote. I'm basically what you get when you combine the protagonists from Death Death Devil Devil Evil Evil Song and Wolf in Sheep's Clothing.

This is funny, which makes me want you to be town.

Here? Tecnically I was always Town, but the first game featured wolf-styled town factions that were out to kill each other, so it's debatable.

Unfortunately this doesn't give us much more to work on.

Could you imagine I'm town for a few minutes, and make a judgement on who have had the more and less townie reactions to my shtick in the game so far?

Edit:

It's not a bad strategy, as much as a bad tactic. It's more or less random chance whether the "Good Player" of the current crop is on your team or not, so lynching them isn't about keeping them from dominating the current game as much as seeing how the game progresses without their specific flavor of interference. Playing against a really good player means losing without really having much idea why, and winning alongside a really good player means winning without really having much idea why. Thus, to improve yourself as a long-term player, there is value in refocusing your strategy not on getting your own team to win, but on getting that player specifically to lose, so you can see what a game's like when it's going bad for them. One kinda-cheap way to do that is to just bandwagon them early in the game (D1 if possible) so they can interfere as little as possible and you can see what a game is like without them.

If you've seen what a game is like with (for example) Murska playing wolf and villager to victory, remove Murska from the player pool on the grounds that it's Murska, and now you get to see how a game goes without them. You can see what people do when they don't have Murska to lean on or play against, you can see what strategies Murska normally uses that they don't, or what strategies they use that Murska doesn't, and then you can maybe analyze why. And nobody will get bent out of shape for you voting the really good player because voting for Murska on the off-chance he's a wolf is just generally good sense anyway.

Of course, voting for Murska regardless can maybe be a good way to get Murska to stop playing - and also means, statistically speaking, both you and Murska are villagers and you just shot yourself in the foot to maybe learn how to become a slightly better player after the game ends. So it's a good strategy for getting better at WW/Mafia in general, maybe, but it's not necessarily a great tactic for winning the game you're currently playing.

This doesn't look great.

I mean, the analysis is reasonable enough, but it just seems like a lot of work being put into something that doesn't make much difference to the solving of this game.

AV staying away from the whole circus around me doesn't feel townie, either. I can see a sensible scum (which is my impression of what AV would be) deciding to steer clear, on the grounds that it's not something the outcomes of which they can easily predict.

[AvatarVecna]

Oh I see. Don't think I'll ever do it, but it's helpful to know it's not so wolfy. Still keeping Gac3 in mind though. Like everyone else, really.

*nods*

Oh, and for proof, just look at how everybody's started automatically voting me at the start of each game, even though I haven't been wolf even once in this new crop of games (and, now that everybody's automatically voting me at the start of each game, no narrator will make me a wolf because the games are small enough that guessing wrong about how I'll swing D1 could set the balance for the whole game way off...so guess I'm villager forever ).

[kgato503]

Something that just struck me as odd: kgato's post here, which I'm finding hard to quote and keep the context so I"m linking to.

kgato, Snowblaze, and I were all wolves last game. So his statement, not mentioning himself as part of trio, seems odd.
But, if he were wolf, probably not something he'd mention in the first place since it'd be risky in that it could draw attention to him if someone pointed that out. So, despite the oddness, maybe townish? Or wolf appearing town-helpful? That gets into WIFOM. So I'll let more experienced Mafia-analyst delve into that post.

I was mainly pointing out inconsistencies in gac3's voting (claiming not to vote for one person because they had just been wolf while turning around and voting for someone who had just been a wolf in the same game). Gac3 was the narrator that game, and should have known all the wolves that game, so I didn't feel the need to throw my name and former role into the mix and possibly make things confusing. Also, I had just followed up an 8hr shift with a 3hr trip (most of which was driving and no human contact), and was a bit tired (I briefly thought about adding it in, but my tired self didn't see a point). I'm more or less happy my post wasn't complete gibberish.

On the scum front, I don't really consider it any worse than using wolf...Although for some reason I keep putting "rebel" in front of it .

[gac3]

I was mainly pointing out inconsistencies in gac3's voting (claiming not to vote for one person because they had just been wolf while turning around and voting for someone who had just been a wolf in the same game). Gac3 was the narrator that game, and should have known all the wolves that game, so I didn't feel the need to throw my name and former role into the mix and possibly make things confusing. Also, I had just followed up an 8hr shift with a 3hr trip (most of which was driving and no human contact), and was a bit tired (I briefly thought about adding it in, but my tired self didn't see a point). I'm more or less happy my post wasn't complete gibberish.

On the scum front, I don't really consider it any worse than using wolf...Although for some reason I keep putting "rebel" in front of it .

When did I claim not to vote for someone because they were just a wolf?

Ah. For some reason I thought I wrote some different there. The real reason I avoided snowblaze was the bandwagon. I don't really expect either to be wolves again but was unsure where to go.

[Snowblaze]

I want to vote Snowblaze... But I doubt they are a wolf again. So I'm going Jeenleen because they make me suspicious. If these bandwagons stay, I'll probably join the Snowblaze one. They tricked everyone last game.

Here. I assume that’s what you meant, at least.

[gac3]

Here. I assume that’s what you meant, at least.

Yeah. I'd forgotten I'd said that. I posted it right before starting work in a rush.

[Valmark]

Could you imagine I'm town for a few minutes, and make a judgement on who have had the more and less townie reactions to my shtick in the game so far?

I'll try, though with how active you've been it's a lot to review :p
Also, given how much you're ignoring your lead in the votes already makes me think you are Town (also gut feeling, which has been more right then wrong up until now), so I'll probably change my vote as soon as I've finished this post. Though, that is kind of hypocri...ti...cal (english isn't my main language) since I've voted you for changing votes too many times.

Anyway:
- No comment on Lex, it looked like your run-of-the-mill day 1 vote for silly or random reasons. I do notice that she has later kept posting without contributions, so I reserve her as a tiny wolfish feeling.

- Aventine might have voted for Lex as a secret way to protect you, which would mean both of you are wolves. Seems unlikely for the same reason of Lex. Also they joined in on the fun only initially, but that feels like it has no real meaning. Also I did the same with others;

- Snowblaze has always kept track of votes, so no comment. She might be slightly defensive, so slightly wolf? She certainly seems more aggressive then usual, in this specific game. Also skeptical towards your behavior;

- I'm getting repetitive, but same thing for CaptainCap as Lex;

- CaoimhinTheCape would be equal, but the random vote starts being suspicious around this time in my opinion, especially since they admitted to it too, and I know from Snow and Xi that wolves accusing themselves is actually fairly likely to happen and go unnoticed (in Snow's case);

- JeenLeen could have purposefully called you a new player to draw suspicions, but it seems silly and Jeen is smarter then that. Also, their helpfulness is pretty much the same with or without evil intent behind it. So slight Town. They say to not lynch Xihirli, which is usually wolfish because the meta of this forum implies that Xi is better off dead when in doubt, but I too disagree so no comment. Though I'm slightly biased. Jeen also put themself in doubt with their own words, like Caoimhin. All things considered, they would be my second pick after Gac. Also that reasoning regarding Kgato, feels like trying to pin suspects on them- I don't share their reasoning, even if valid, so more wolfy then towny;

- Xihirli looks Town for her vote on Caoimhin, but it could be a way to defend you. This would imply that her, you and Aventine are wolves, but as I should have made clear it feels far-fetched, so I'm thinking a jumpy Town;

- Gac3 has been activating ALL of my sirens- on day 2 it's likely that I'll vote for them, but for now I'd prefer to stick to the current wagons since there isn't that much time, unless other two start pushing for Gac3. If you get lynched and turn out Town they are at the top of my list.

I think it's all of them? Checking the votes, I see that JeenLeen has 2 votes. I'd prefer lynching them to lynching you, so yeah, I'm switching my vote.

*nods*

Oh, and for proof, just look at how everybody's started automatically voting me at the start of each game, even though I haven't been wolf even once in this new crop of games (and, now that everybody's automatically voting me at the start of each game, no narrator will make me a wolf because the games are small enough that guessing wrong about how I'll swing D1 could set the balance for the whole game way off...so guess I'm villager forever ).

That's the kind of thing people in films say when they are hiding something, mind you è.é

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Note on Snowblaze: I get the feeling she has been more aggressive with votes yes, but that is compared to when she was either a Town or a Wolf so there isn't much of a point. Didn't want to edit since it could be suspicious.

[AvatarVecna]

That's the kind of thing people in films say when they are hiding something, mind you è.é

Hardly hiding anything, I voted for myself, and only switched off when my wagon basically got abandoned by the people who started it. Kids these days, can't commit to lynching me. *shakes fist*

But hey! If you're really suspicious of me, switch your vote from McGinty to me, and I'll go back to voting myself. Of course, that only puts it at Mrs. McGinty 3 - AvatarVecna 3 with her reaching 3 first, but presumably at that point she could vote me to save herself. Gives us some actual competing wagons to analyze in the days to come.

[Valmark]

But hey! If you're really suspicious of me, switch your vote from McGinty to me, and I'll go back to voting myself. Of course, that only puts it at Mrs. McGinty 3 - AvatarVecna 3 with her reaching 3 first, but presumably at that point she could vote me to save herself. Gives us some actual competing wagons to analyze in the days to come.

Unfortunately if I do want to try and keep Mrs. McGinty alive I should vote on a wagon that doesn't rely on the wagoned's suicide, since I'll hopefully be sleeping when the Day ends. Given my hynsomnia it's not that likely though.

[Mrs McGinty]

Snowblaze, Aventine and JeenLeen are my towncore - I would vote to save them over anyone but myself at this point.

Valmark looks fine - I wouldn't vote there except to save myself or my towncore.

AvatarVecna has a slight scum lean, but is not a lynch priority because being talkative and risk-taking helps keep the content generation up.

I'm a sucker for roleplaying in mafia, so Libro gets a day pass unless the alternative to one of the above.

Everyone else is in the mix, and for now I'm going with:

kgato503

Two posts, either could quite easily be made by a wolf, with no evidence of a genuine solving process yet apparent.

[Caerulea]

Wow, this really exploded.

In case of a tie its first comes first lynched, right?

Actually, it's randomly decided between the two. (random.org)

"Xihirli was plotting against us!"
"Or was I!?"

Yes. Yes you were, and yes you are. You're plotting against us right now, aren't you?!

.Either way, the only reason we tried to kill you was because we thought you were plotting against us. Which you were.

I find these quite funny, so with both of your permission, I'd like to put them in my extended signature.

---

And for those talking about someone being wolves in previous games:
Roles were assigned using the list shuffler on random.org with no consideration given to past games.*

*This statement does not imply anything about those being discussed, it is simply information on how I always assign roles. This statement was also made without consideration of the current state of discussion or who are wolves. Seriously, this is not a reason to lynch someone over. I'm not lying.

[Valmark]

Snowblaze, Aventine and JeenLeen are my towncore

Valmark looks fine

sob that's the sound of my heart crying

[AvatarVecna]

Actually, it's randomly decided between the two. (random.org)

*internally screaming*

I find these quite funny, so with both of your permission, I'd like to put them in my extended signature.

No problem here.

And for those talking about someone being wolves in previous games:
Roles were assigned using the list shuffler on random.org with no consideration given to past games.

Same. List Randomizer the list of roles, List Randomizer the list of players, and boom. I just find it funny that I've yet to be wolf; it's not super likely or super unlikely by random chance, so it just means THERE'S A CONSPIRACY I'm unlucky.

[rogue_alchemist]

I'll vote gac3 just to have a vote. May the best of us die valiantly!

[Mrs McGinty]

sob that's the sound of my heart crying

No, no! It okay! Don't be cry! You can towncore!

Spoiler

Show

Curse my easily-exploited sympathetic nature. Now my core is too big to sustain The McGinty System. Whole thing's going right off the rails here!

[Valmark]

No, no! It okay! Don't be cry! You can towncore!

Spoiler

Show

Curse my easily-exploited sympathetic nature. Now my core is too big to sustain The McGinty System. Whole thing's going right off the rails here!

Nay, don't worry, I don't actually work well in groups anyway :p which is counter-productive in this game. Or in any game. Funny enough, in life it works.

[Aventine]

Huh. Two more pages and an inexplicable wagon on McGinty. That's...not what I expected to find when I came back. (All that's missing is the Spanish Inquisition).

I like the several votes for quiet people, trying to get them to talk. But picking three or four different quiet people rather than stacking up and putting some actual pressure on feels more like attempts to fly under the radar by avoiding committing to anything while preparing a future defense of "oh, I was pressuring quiet people."

Also tempted to say the McGinty wagon smells like an experienced wolf expressed concern about and/or admiration for her to the other wolves and a less experienced one jumped on the wagon hoping to kill the danger.

I'll poke Caoimhin

[Xihirli]

Wow that was an explosion.

[gac3]

Wow that was an explosion.

It really was.

[JeenLeen]

So I'm at 3 votes, then? Haven't done the counting myself yet, but seems that way.

So Mrs McGinty. She feels more wolfish than AvatarVecna currently.

[Mrs McGinty]

So I'm at 3 votes, then? Haven't done the counting myself yet, but seems that way.

So Mrs McGinty. She feels more wolfish than AvatarVecna currently.

How am I wolfish?

And why does it have to be AV or me? We've still got eighteen hours left, don't we?

[AvatarVecna]

How am I wolfish?

And why does it have to be AV or me? We've still got eighteen hours left, don't we?

I know right? That's what's weird. It's like 6 votes on you, 2 votes on Cao, and then 7 people with one vote on each of em. Maybe they just mean that you and I are the only ones they personally suspect?

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In fact yeah let's get this rolling again. AvatarVecna.

JOIN ME. YOU KNOW YOU WANT TO.

[Aventine]

McGinty is the most pro-town player in the game at the moment. I mean, if we both live long enough it's pretty much certain I'll get paranoid that she's manipulating us all (safe in the knowledge that there's no seer to get suspicious and check her) and so panic lynch her. But for the time being you'd have to be crazy to want her dead.

Oh, and JeenLeen, you have only one vote on you.

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Also Caoimhin unvoted, but has not yet posted. I'm assuming he's just slow (God knows I am more often than not). But this is a reminder to myself to watch that...

[Xihirli]

I feel like there's a newbie wolf play on McGinty, rushing on there to get a bad wagon going. That's why I poked the newbie that jumped on her wagon.

[Aventine]

I mean, yeah, I would be at least a little surprised if there isn't a newbie wolf on the McGinty wagon. But at this point there are a bunch of town on it too, so frowny face at everyone trying to kill my villain buddy.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I only have JeenLeen at 1 vote right now (from Valmark).

And honestly I'm feeling better about Mr.s McGinty for now. Really could go either way but not confident enough to really lynch. The wagon has a few of us from voting early on (myself, Lex-Kat, and CaptainCap) and not changing recently, so I'm not sure how much the others still believe in the vote.

I'll change to Duck999 since they haven't posted yet. If I'm not confident on who to vote I'd rather go after someone who talks less/gives less info.

[Xihirli]

I thought I was your villain buddy.

[AvatarVecna]

...CaoimhinTheCape

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Oh. Well, if Vecna is voting himself again, Duck only has one. I'll switch to Logan1996 since they haven't voted yet and still have a vote on them.

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...CaoimhinTheCape

So like, cool, but is there more of an explanation? You didn't like that I unwagoned Mrs. McGinty?