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Thread: Evil Villains Werewolf
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2020-05-27, 02:09 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Okay. So. Couple things.
My source, I don't want to out unless this goes wrong. I'm not the only one who knows the source. Even if they are wrong and I die at night, I plan to call them out before night is over. Until then though, if you flip wolf, I want them to remain anonymous to the wolves. Their power seems useful.
Second they clarified. Turns out they followed Rogue Alchemist instead of watching me and they mis spoke.
All that said here's how I look at the situation:
Prior to this information we had a short list of people who hadn't claimed. So unless new information surfaced it sounds like we were going to randomly lynch one of the unclaimed. Rogue Alchemist happened to be on that list and had a good chance of dying anyways.
Then my source told me that RA targetted me. That is a whole lot more information than we had before. Because since we know somebody role blocked me it makes an actual suspect based on evidence instead of the previous "these people have no evidence of being town".
That said, if you want to send me your full role description, it may help convince me. But right now you aren't telling me who your target is. Since you are supposed to help them, the only reason for that is you think I'm a wolf or you are lying. At this point, we have no counterclaim for me. You also claim that you follow and bane. That combo doesn't ring true with me for all of this. Following doesn't help you protect or find your person. It is however a power of one of the wolves. The follow part. If you know who your person is, they can tell me you are legit because you've already communicated with them. If you don't know who they are yet, then networking is a high priority to find them. In fact if anything, there is someone saying a neutral wants them dead. You might just be that neutral, in which case we still gain from killing you.
Edit: Read all "you'd" as rogue Alchemist"Last edited by gac3; 2020-05-27 at 02:09 PM.
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2020-05-27, 02:18 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Oct 2019
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
So, on a much less tense "I'm betting rogue is our wolf until he does the very easy work of copy-pasting his role/power" note, hey Valmark!
SnowblazePerson was signed in when posted
05-26-2020
10:25 AM ET (US)
Can confirm, Valmark is indeed the other Feuding Villain.
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2020-05-27, 02:24 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Sadly yes. But unless anyone has anything better or RA manages to send me their whole role QT, I'm still thinking this is our beast option. Their defences have been weak.
They want to know who accused them, only useful for retribution. All they need to know is the details right now.
They haven't claimed not to target me.
Their role claim is weak and I'd rather test by killing the claimed neutral than the claimed town.
They even said we can afford a mislynch
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2020-05-27, 02:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-05-27, 02:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
I am happy with the details you provided, that was mainly what I wanted to be able to follow, because it seemed too vague and hand-wavy to me, but is much clearer now. Thank you!
I wasn't saying we can afford a mislynch, I am just pointing out that we aren't as desperate as Xihirli was making it seem. We are in dire-straights and need to figure out the wolves, but not by rushing about. I still stand by my reasoning on not piling every vote onto one train to at least create a trail that can be used to gain more information than my role after I am lynched (by analyzing the votes). Currently you won't know anything because everyone is just following your lead instead of questioning.
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2020-05-27, 03:02 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
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Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
The part after is "Get wrecked." Yes, it's a bit flippant. No, it doesn't change my point: it's possible that R_A isn't a hero, but then it's possible that basically anyone isn't a hero, and while I acknowledge that there are partial objections to voting them, the reasons to do so outweigh the reasons not to.
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2020-05-27, 03:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
We are learning nothing? We are learning a fair bit. I now have claims from all but three people. One of those people will auto lynch. The fact that we still haven't had anyone claim a role someone else has claimed is interesting.
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2020-05-27, 03:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
so why don't we lynch one of those other two? I am going to go to bed soon and won't be able to respond for about 14 hours. That'll still leave about 3 hours for me to respond in the morning. I have claimed in detail to gac3, so my fate is in their hands. Hopefully we don't make another mistake.
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2020-05-27, 03:56 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2018
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2020-05-27, 03:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
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2020-05-27, 04:00 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
The part after that is "if Gac is lying, we lynch Gac."
No. If we find our from a flip that Gac is lying, a villager probably auto-lynches and we have two villagers dead, then another in the night. If we don't lynch a wolf today the game ends. And your willingness to consider a further game after that point shows a willingness to let the wolves take the win while trying to say something villagery.Last edited by Xihirli; 2020-05-27 at 04:00 PM.
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2020-05-27, 04:07 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
I've never done one of these but lets see what we can come up with here.
Spoiler: Rogue Alchemist
Started the first wagon claiming random number generator. Wolf.
Claimed not to know they started the first wagon. Null
A string of votes doing nothing bout counting votes and claiming it was analysis. They also happened to have said that Xihirli was suspicious for not voting themself... even though their previous messages stated that they knew that Xihiril had. Null leaning towards Wolf trying to appear town
Changed vote to the wagon that seemed most obvious. Then bragged about how that was the exciting part. Null
This actually favors their claim of being a neutral with a weird win condition.
Real life concerns interfering with games. Good explination for having been absent for most of the day and several pages. Votes for Jeen. Claims the argument against Jeen is good but honestly I don't remember seeing one. Null
Reminds us of vote count. Expresses they got no result Null but puts on a big show of "now they got two of us" when even now they are claiming they aren't "us". Very LAMIST given that wolf or not, they are not town.
Null read
This just sent off alarm bells in my head. What does this question about me accomplish? Either they role blocked me or they followed me as they claimed. So... that very much says that they know the answer to this. This is our biggest evidence.
A tracker targets me and sees that I targetted no one. They publically ask who I targetted, likely expecting a "nobody". Then they see me claim that I got a scry off and that I haven't heard from the other seer. If I were them I would be owning up and calling me out either publically or privately. Instead they disappear until right after I accuse them. Now we might think that they went to sleep and didn't come back until after they were accused. That might be true. But I posted less than a minute after them and it was hours before they said "I'm going to have to get off here soon" today. So while its possible its super unlikely.
If they roleblocked me though, then they would never admit to knowing that I got didn't get a scry. Wolf
Edit: in conclusion, this seems like a good target.Last edited by gac3; 2020-05-27 at 04:09 PM.
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2020-05-27, 04:17 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Aug 2018
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Jesus Christ. Here is my vote, and the bit that came after it:
Here is the part that you're talking about, which came before, not after, the vote, hence why I was slightly confused:
If we mislynch, then we still control the vote with the help of the neutrals, we can still win the game, and we can start by lynching whoever is lying. We are not in MyLo on day three in a 20-player game. We have, what, five dead and one fled, (EDIT: And possibly three more deaths total today and tonight) meaning that there are 4 wolves to a total maybe 7, if we're unlucky, nonwolves by the end of tomorrow night if we're wrong?
We are not in MyLo. I don't know why you think we are.Last edited by Unavenger; 2020-05-27 at 04:18 PM.
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2020-05-27, 04:19 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Being Neutral is so relaxing.
Though rogue might think different.
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2020-05-27, 04:33 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Okay. So assuming every role in the OP is in the game, the following roles are still present and not accounted for by death.
- Loyal Deputy
- Bodyguard
- Friendly Villain
- Devil
- Fool
- Villain Next Door
- Feuding Villain 1
- Feuding Villain 2
- Hero
- Traitor
- Ally
- Animal Sidekick
By my count that is 12 people. That leaves room for two more. I have currently recieve two neutral claims and a town claim not on that list. On the other note, I have recieved claims for all of the town roles save 1. So if you are one of these roles and didn't claim it to me/AV, please let me know.
Also if we assume 14 people... And 4 wolves... And at least 2 neutral... then that leaves 8 town left. A town death today and a town auto death and a town death tonight means we have to lynch a wolf tomorrow or we are hopeless.
If its as many as 4 neutrals... Then thats 6 town. Two die today, then we lose if the bodyguard doesn't choose right tonight.Last edited by gac3; 2020-05-27 at 04:34 PM.
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2020-05-27, 04:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Yeah, I trust the people who win when someone else dies while the wolves can make that happen too.
That sure sounds like someone who's given up on their win-con and has decided to help town even though we have no reason to lynch Joy to me, doesn't it to you?Spoiler: Check Out my Writing!
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2020-05-27, 04:49 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
I guess the best thing we can hope from bc is that they flip wolf. Second best is that they flip town in a role that has been claimed
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2020-05-27, 04:51 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-05-27, 05:06 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2018
- Location
- West
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
For whatever it's worth, here's my two cents:
Firstly, mathematics.
IF we assume that there is one Seer and one Fool-- and from what I've heard of our deceased Mastermind, Snowblaze, that's a big if-- and only one of them scries something, then it depends entirely on how exactly the Fool's mechanics are handled in this game.
If we ignore neutrals and the Fool has a fifty-fifty chance of scrying a wolf or a town, then the chances of a scryperson being correct is about 75% (50% they're the seer and are right, and half the remainder that they're right regardless). Depending on whether, with Neutrals, the Fool gets a one-third chance to scry each role-- still resulting in a scryperson getting a correct result 66.6% of the time-- or somehow gets results proportional to the number of roles of that affiliation (active or in total), the proportions might decrease and skew towards false-positives or false-negatives (more likely to scry someone as town falsely than falsely wolf, for example), but provided that the Fool gets random instead of flatly wrong results, any result from a single scryperson will have an over 50% chance of being correct.
If the fool gets a random result, rather than a predetermined one, then scrying the same person twice might let you check.
If the scrypeople get a role rather than just affiliation, scry a known quantity-- say the Feuding Villains-- and see what you get. This also works, but is more prone to failure, if just an affiliation is gotten. Of course, this wastes a scry, but it doesn't require both people to scry the same person-- one can look at an actual target-- and it might be worth it to know which one is the fool.
... In conclusion, we need more info about the mechanics used in this game to logically determine who is the Seer and who is the Fool. Does anyone possess better information?
Secondly:
We know that roguealchemist targeted gac3, while knowing that they were a seer; it seems that we cannot confirm what roguealchemist targeted them with. That being said, Occam's razor says that roguealchemist certainly targeted gac3, so the simplest answer is that they were the culprit.
Also, to me, roguealchemist's posts smack of evasion, of someone who was discovered and is trying to avoid giving themselves away or dispensing more information. Something about them seems incredibly suspicious, for some reason.
For now, my suspicions, and therefore my vote, lie squarely on roguealchemist. That being said, there are a few queries I would like to make, ideally before the hapless fool is lynched-- though I see that roguealchemist might be unable to answer. (These queries, incidentally, also serve to enumerate I find suspicious about roguealchemist.)
roguealchemist:
What do you claim was your purpose in targeting gac3?
(this seems like the obvious question, and it doesn't seem that anyone else has asked it).
Does the person whom you supposedly serve know that someone serves them? Regardless, consider declaring, publicly or privately, which role you are supposed to serve. It seems that it might help your case-- if you have one.
Is there a reason why you haven't shared your full role (that is, the text of the original QT)? What, specifically, is your goal in the game?
gac3:
Can you be utterly certain that your informant is trustworthy? We all remember the incident at the beginning of the game. Presumably, you and your fellow scryperson somehow confirmed their role; can you confirm this?
everyone:
I, and perhaps the other newbies, would like an elaboration on what precisely these stated powers and effects mean. Most of them can be surmised from context, but a clarification could be useful and might actually change my suspicions-- and my questions.
In closing: This post, in particular, is longer than all of my previous posts combined. The taste of Evil Monologue is... intoxicating.
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2020-05-27, 05:18 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Am I certain? Like 100%? Absolutely not. But this looks like a rogue is either neutral or wolf and anybody else is nearly as likely to be town. If they are neutral, they are a far better target than town.
That said, Mornshine, you should claim to me.
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2020-05-27, 05:23 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
- Location
- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
The Seer-like roles get to know someone's affiliation- for certain. (Here is called the Devil)
The Fool-like roles get to know someone's affiliation- randomly. I think it's 50/50 percent chance to get it right or wrong, not sure how that applies to neutrals. (I'm guessing it's the Foolish Villain)
The power that let's you know someone's specific role usually belongs to the Devil (which is confusing since our Seer in this game is called Devil). And I think it is called Hero in this game.
If you're confused about "baning" it means protecting from night-kills, while "voiding" is roleblocking meaning stopping a person from doing anything.
A "scry" is what the Seer, the Fool and the Devil do, "watching" is another kind of power that tells you who person A targets, who targets person A or both.
I think that's all?
- - - Updated - - -
Also the Fool doesn't know that they are the Fool, but get told that they are the Seer. Usually.
Yes, it means that it's bad news for Town if it is around.
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2020-05-27, 07:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Well would you look at that... One more claim and I'll have a full set. Libro... Want to claim in our QT
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2020-05-27, 07:32 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
I have to say, gac3 writes like the perfect villain.
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2020-05-27, 07:38 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
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2020-05-27, 07:52 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
- Gender
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2020-05-28, 06:16 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
It's moot now, but I was trying to check if gac3 was actually the seer or the mouthpiece for the seer (like the seer and he had claimed to each other and gac3 was protecting the seer by pretending to be the seer and of course the seer wouldn't counter-claim (it has happened in plenty of games I've done IRL)).
I don't think the person I serve knows I serve them, but it makes sense because they are targeted by multiple groups that they would have a secret protector too.
I did share my role with gac3, though I didn't want to share it here (publicly) because it would make carrying out my role that much harder for me.
It seems I'll be lynched regardless. As to gac3's read that I was mute for a while, it's because it is during the day, but I have work and can't sit on my computer just constantly checking these things. My work is an engineer on a production floor that requires I go support people for hours on end then come sit at my desk until the next thing goes wrong. As such I have times when I can be on a lot and times when I am busy and away.
I also don't see how lynching neutral is good. If you mislynch anyone (aka don't get a wolf) then the wolves control more % of the votes and you are losing power. It is better to go after someone who is not using their vote effectively anyways (they aren't around) than a claimed neutral who is on town side, but that could just be self-preservation talking.
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2020-05-28, 06:44 AM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
It's better to lynch a neutral on the basis that neutrals have different priorities.
Take me for example- even if I believe you I don't have a reason to switch my vote. Besides the fact that you are statistically speaking more likely to be a wolf then not, I mean.
And I can't say I really believe you, just that the proof against you isn't as strong as one could think.
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2020-05-28, 07:58 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
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- Aiur, low orbit
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Re: Evil Villains Werewolf
Spoiler: OOCCalled into work yesterday, but should be caught-up on the thread now.
There's an old saying, "the devil is in the details". How fitting a phrase when our fiendish oracle is in the midst of all this. I, for one, am grateful to not to bear the burden of leadership. It is a heavy weight, whose presence I am not unfamiliar with...
As for the matter at hand, it seems that the consensus is to paint the walls rouge with rogue_alchemist?
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2020-05-28, 08:02 AM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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2020-05-28, 08:12 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Feb 2015
- Location
- Ithilien
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