Evil Villains Werewolf

[gac3]

What I find a little odd is that gac3 would jump on a wagon in the same sentence as proclaiming his non-comprehension of the case for that wagon.

I, too, find that odd. gac3 really does read to me like somebody just coasting by and putting in a vote because it's expected. And with the claim on Joy I'm good fire drilling onto Gac.

As I said, the only two wagons I knew of were Valmark and Joy. Granted I wasn't paying close attention to the vote totals so I thought they were closer. But again, like I said, I am more inclined of the two to not vote Valmark because they have at least claimed to me.

Edit:
I'll admit to the coasting part. Do I know who to lynch? Nope. Not yet. My best evidence has already been given. I do however have proof to not lynch a few people, luckily they aren't on the chopping block yet.

[Valmark]

JoyWonderLove, you are a Feuding Villain, a neutral. At this stage you’ve long since given up caring about the stupid Plan. All you care about is finally eliminating each other, and this is the perfect opportunity to do that.

I actually already know exactly who the other Villian is. We've even been talking semi-casually in a quicktopic that person made. So, hiya.

...you're the last person I wanted as my enemy. Yeah I'm the other Feuding Villain. Now that's awkward.

[gac3]

...you're the last person I wanted as my enemy. Yeah I'm the other Feuding Villain. Now that's awkward.

Horribly Ironic was that my reason for voting joy was that you claimed that role... Now so have they.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright, so great that we know who the two Feuding Villains are. Maybe. If stuff is out in the open, would either of you mind sharing what the negative piece is for town? Like, is this just a distraction from getting the heroes?

Assuming no one counterclaims I'm guessing that you both are unlikely to be lynched or killed at night? So what's the deal?



Leaving my vote where it is for now since we have time and I'm looking for answers.

[gac3]

I think their goal is to kill eachother. So my biggest concern is if we don't lynch one of them, then they might resort trading infromation to the wolves in exchange for getting the wolves to kill the other.

[Valmark]

The problem is, Town won't lynch either and I haven't contacted any wolf (at least no one claimed wolf to me) so I'll like, have to wait and hope she dies while I don't.

And then Town will lynch me or her thinking we are siding with wolves. Or at least, I would. Though if MornShine doesn't come up and is set to auto-lynch they are probably going to be priority target to not lose a day (haven't done the math precisely)

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Alright, so great that we know who the two Feuding Villains are. Maybe. If stuff is out in the open, would either of you mind sharing what the negative piece is for town? Like, is this just a distraction from getting the heroes?

Assuming no one counterclaims I'm guessing that you both are unlikely to be lynched or killed at night? So what's the deal?



Leaving my vote where it is for now since we have time and I'm looking for answers.

As gac said, we need to kill the other and then survive until endgame. We don't have a kill power, so it's either lynch or wolf kill.

[gac3]

Has anyone besides me given either of them information as to your role? If not I can just put my information here and that should mean that they have nothing to use as leverage to get the wolves to kill the other

[CaoimhinTheCape]

And then Town will lynch me or her thinking we are siding with wolves. Or at least, I would. Though if MornShine doesn't come up and is set to auto-lynch they are probably going to be priority target to not lose a day (haven't done the math precisely)

Is there something special about MornShine? By my count, there could be up to 5 people up for auto-lynch tomorrow:

Lord Athos, rogue_alchemist, Bc56, MornShine, Logan1996

[Valmark]

Has anyone besides me given either of them information as to your role? If not I can just put my information here and that should mean that they have nothing to use as leverage to get the wolves to kill the other

At least one more people did, so it's not a great idea for Town.

I'm the lousiest Neutral ever.

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Is there something special about MornShine? By my count, there could be up to 5 people up for auto-lynch tomorrow:

Lord Athos, rogue_alchemist, Bc56, MornShine, Logan1996

I did not realize that. Really that many people? Athos, Rogue and Logan are typically silent people though, so I expect them to come make a post.
bc was more active last game I believe.

I... Uh, this might get me killed, but Athos did talk to me in QT privately (one message) without showing up here.

[Duck999]

Unless the two feuding villains are both wolves lying about it, I doubt we'll get much out of killing them. They won't trade information to wolves in exchange for the other one being killed because no one is going to give them information at this point.

Point being, I think we should move off the Joy wagon unless we really believe they are both wolves taking a huge gambit.

[gac3]

Unless the two feuding villains are both wolves lying about it, I doubt we'll get much out of killing them. They won't trade information to wolves in exchange for the other one being killed because no one is going to give them information at this point.

Point being, I think we should move off the Joy wagon unless we really believe they are both wolves taking a huge gambit.

Got any recommendations for whom to switch too?

Since part of the problem is that they do have at least some information from me, here is what they should have gathered. Avatar Vecna is Town. Well specifically I told them that I would target AV and confirm whether or not they were neutral. I think in retrospect all I told them was that AV was not neutral.

[Valmark]

Got any recommendations for whom to switch too?

Since part of the problem is that they do have at least some information from me, here is what they should have gathered. Avatar Vecna is Town.

I can confirm this, though I can't say wether it's true or not since they could have lied.

[gac3]

I can confirm this, though I can't say wether it's true or not. By this I mean more because the role description implies there's a Fool among us, more then thinking gac lied.

That's true. My role text even describes the fool. Speaking of which, if the other "Devil" is out there, send me a message so we can compare the role descriptions and figure out if they are the same of have a clue as to which of us is the fool.

Edit: or Scry me tonight and see how I come up before you do that.

Edit 2: or just don't trust me. I wouldn't blame you

[AvatarVecna]

A couple points regarding the JoyWonderLove wagon:

1) JWL claimed the role after I made the potential existence of the role public knowledge. Valmark claimed the role privately to me prior to the public claim, so I believe Valmark's claim is legitimate. From there, the idea that JWL's claim is fake isn't that far-fetched: a wolf would want to claim a role that gives town reason not to lynch them, and a role that would be unlikely to be counterclaimed.

Claiming to be the second-half of a pair of neutrals who want each other dead gives town good reason to not kill them, because if JWL is telling the truth and town murders her, Valmark's goal changes from "hunt down my enemy" to "end game as soon as possible so I can't die", chasing him directly into the wolves arms.

But also, if JWL's claim is fake, the true second Feuding Villain has no reason to stand up and counterclaim. That role's starting goal is to track down their opposing neutral, and now they've got the pool narrowed down from 17 to 2 with no work on their part. Speaking up now just puts a spotlight on them. And I've already said how counterclaiming is an inherently sacrificial move, putting yourself on the chopping block in order to make sure that town isn't swayed by a liar...but what does a neutral care if town gets swayed by a liar?

2) At the time of my previous vote-count (approximately halfway through D2) there had been 25 posts. In the ~12 hours since, there have been 35 posts. More posts in half the time, and the significant event there was a major wagon forming on JWL. You know what they say about DADV.

3)

Spoiler: Reference Posts

Show

Not me! I'm always a slacker.



Very.

On another note, I don't like the wagon (and by wagon I mean all of two votes) on Valmark. With a game this quiet, I think we should keep Valmark around for a little more. He tends to do good analysis and the reason for voting him isn't that strong. Obviously he could be a wolf, but if he's not I think he's too valuable to lynch on what we have.

For now at least, I'll vote Xihirli. She pointed at Valmark early on and then didn't engage in discussion about her logic when Valmark refuted it.

Edit: Ninja'd by Xihirli changing votes. I stand by my vote because she still hasn't engaged in the discussion about her initial vote, instead just switching wagons for unrelated reasons. Not enough activity so you just switch your vote to someone else seemingly at random? Not a fan.

Unless the two feuding villains are both wolves lying about it, I doubt we'll get much out of killing them. They won't trade information to wolves in exchange for the other one being killed because no one is going to give them information at this point.

Point being, I think we should move off the Joy wagon unless we really believe they are both wolves taking a huge gambit.

These two posts look a lot like you going to bat defending JWL, and the logic given rings false in my ears. It sounds like you're trying to throw people off the trail, which is weird if you + JWL are both town, but extra weird if you actually believe JWL is a neutral who isn't particularly town-aligned. However, if you are a townie, duck, please at least consider how dangerous a prospect it is that you're suggesting. We supposedly have two neutrals alive and well right now who want the other to die, and then for the game to end as quickly as possible. You're suggesting that we assume they're both telling the truth, and insisting that therefore our best plan of action is to leave two self-professed non-town-aligned neutrals alive to conspire against each other with whoever can secure their victory the best. Do you really think town is who they're going to try and work with?

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So here's a couple things I'll put out there for town as a whole:

1) If you are the actual second Feuding Villain, and you don't want to publicly claim because you don't want a target on your head from Valmark, please privately claim to me. I won't spill your secrets at this point, I just want to know if JWL is lying. If you contact me, I'll say I've received a claim and do my part to get JWL lynched.

2) I received a claim today a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. This makes sense to me, because I'm town, and also I can imagine why I might be a good N1 scry target. I was a little wary that they might be a wolf though. And then...I received a second claim from a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. Now, I may just be a simple country lawyer, so I put the question out to town as a whole: is there any reasonable explanation you can think of for this set-up that would explain why both seer claimants might be telling the truth? Like, Snowblaze did say they were gonna make more town roles for this game, and hasn't ever revealed the potential neutrals. Is it likely there's another non-wolf seer out there, in your opinion?

[Logan1996]

It was a joke because snow said yours were interesting.
All in all "research" was less helpful than expected. I was going to say that people who switched off of kgato after his claim were less likely to be wolves because it came so close to the end of the day it's easy to say you missed it due to work/sleep.
That said of the five that were voting kgato at the time, me, Logan, Xihiril, duck, and Libro, only Libro changed. So I expect Libro isn't a wolf. I am not a wolf. I have reason to believe Logan isn't a wolf (but could be wrong). That said it's a good chance Xihiril or duck might be wolves but I doubt they both are. I wouldn't expect more than one on a wagon at that point in the game.

A couple points regarding the JoyWonderLove wagon:

1) JWL claimed the role after I made the potential existence of the role public knowledge. Valmark claimed the role privately to me prior to the public claim, so I believe Valmark's claim is legitimate. From there, the idea that JWL's claim is fake isn't that far-fetched: a wolf would want to claim a role that gives town reason not to lynch them, and a role that would be unlikely to be counterclaimed.

Claiming to be the second-half of a pair of neutrals who want each other dead gives town good reason to not kill them, because if JWL is telling the truth and town murders her, Valmark's goal changes from "hunt down my enemy" to "end game as soon as possible so I can't die", chasing him directly into the wolves arms.

But also, if JWL's claim is fake, the true second Feuding Villain has no reason to stand up and counterclaim. That role's starting goal is to track down their opposing neutral, and now they've got the pool narrowed down from 17 to 2 with no work on their part. Speaking up now just puts a spotlight on them. And I've already said how counterclaiming is an inherently sacrificial move, putting yourself on the chopping block in order to make sure that town isn't swayed by a liar...but what does a neutral care if town gets swayed by a liar?

2) At the time of my previous vote-count (approximately halfway through D2) there had been 25 posts. In the ~12 hours since, there have been 35 posts. More posts in half the time, and the significant event there was a major wagon forming on JWL. You know what they say about DADV.

3)

Spoiler: Reference Posts

Show

These two posts look a lot like you going to bat defending JWL, and the logic given rings false in my ears. It sounds like you're trying to throw people off the trail, which is weird if you + JWL are both town, but extra weird if you actually believe JWL is a neutral who isn't particularly town-aligned. However, if you are a townie, duck, please at least consider how dangerous a prospect it is that you're suggesting. We supposedly have two neutrals alive and well right now who want the other to die, and then for the game to end as quickly as possible. You're suggesting that we assume they're both telling the truth, and insisting that therefore our best plan of action is to leave two self-professed non-town-aligned neutrals alive to conspire against each other with whoever can secure their victory the best. Do you really think town is who they're going to try and work with?

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So here's a couple things I'll put out there for town as a whole:

1) If you are the actual second Feuding Villain, and you don't want to publicly claim because you don't want a target on your head from Valmark, please privately claim to me. I won't spill your secrets at this point, I just want to know if JWL is lying. If you contact me, I'll say I've received a claim and do my part to get JWL lynched.

2) I received a claim today a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. This makes sense to me, because I'm town, and also I can imagine why I might be a good N1 scry target. I was a little wary that they might be a wolf though. And then...I received a second claim from a supposed seer, who claimed to have scried me as town. Now, I may just be a simple country lawyer, so I put the question out to town as a whole: is there any reasonable explanation you can think of for this set-up that would explain why both seer claimants might be telling the truth? Like, Snowblaze did say they were gonna make more town roles for this game, and hasn't ever revealed the potential neutrals. Is it likely there's another non-wolf seer out there, in your opinion?

This is either evidence I should vote one of the feuding villains or Duck999

[Valmark]

I'll put a vote on JoyWonderLove, might as well try.

Something to pay attention to regarding the double seers:

"The Devil:

Your second sight is unparalleled, and you can use it to work out who is who, tracking down the heroes hiding amongst you... and the fool who thinks he can match your power.


The Foolish Villain:

You think you have second sight, but in reality it's just randomness. That won't stop you from proving that you can do anything with a bit of luck..."

This heavily implies one of the Seers has a chance of being right (the fool) while the other is always right. Statistically speaking, it's a flip of a coin.

[AvatarVecna]

That's a fair point, Valmark. Still makes me itchy, mind you.

I'm putting my vote on Duck999 for the moment, mostly to give the best chances I'll get an actual response on my post before EoD.

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Got any recommendations for whom to switch too?

Since part of the problem is that they do have at least some information from me, here is what they should have gathered. Avatar Vecna is Town. Well specifically I told them that I would target AV and confirm whether or not they were neutral. I think in retrospect all I told them was that AV was not neutral.

Spoiler: Vote Count

Show

Duck999: Libro, Logan1996, AvatarVecna
gac3: Elenna, Unavenger, Xihirli
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen, trtl, CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark
Xihirli: Duck999

Given the context of the previous post, gac's wagon needs to stop being a contender.

[gac3]

That's a fair point, Valmark. Still makes me itchy, mind you.

I'm putting my vote on Duck999 for the moment, mostly to give the best chances I'll get an actual response on my post before EoD.

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Spoiler: Vote Count

Show

Duck999: Libro, Logan1996, AvatarVecna
gac3: Elenna, Unavenger, Xihirli
JeenLeen: JoyWonderLove
JoyWonderLove: JeenLeen, trtl, CaoimhinTheCape, Valmark
Xihirli: Duck999

Given the context of the previous post, gac's wagon needs to stop being a contender.

Then lets even the duck wagon and see what they have to say. Duck999

Edit: Just saw the part about my wagon. How kind. I agree with it.

[Valmark]

You all would do me a great favor if you tested this on Joy, you know?

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I mean, if you are wrong about Duck they turn up Town- if you're wrong about Joy they turn up Neutral.

Isn't Joy the less risky option?

[gac3]

You all would do me a great favor if you tested this on Joy, you know?

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I mean, if you are wrong about Duck they turn up Town- if you're wrong about Joy they turn up Neutral.

Isn't Joy the less risky option?

I'm really not sure. In a situation like this, I'm not sure what to do. I can see the threat of leaving you two alive but at the same time its lessened now that everybody knows who you are. I'd like to hear from some of the people that haven't weighed in since this happened.

[AvatarVecna]

You all would do me a great favor if you tested this on Joy, you know?

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I mean, if you are wrong about Duck they turn up Town- if you're wrong about Joy they turn up Neutral.

Isn't Joy the less risky option?

Currently I think Joy and Duck are wolves, but I could be wrong about either one, and it's just as you've laid out here, but it's more complicated than that.

If we're right about Duck, that's -1 wolf. If we're wrong about Duck, that's -1 town.

If we're right about JWL, that's -1 wolf, and doesn't chase you into the wolves arms (since your foe is still out there). If we're wrong about JWL, not only is that -0 wolves, but it's +1 wolf because now signing up to help the scum is in your best interests.

Duck's lynch could end "-1 town/-0 neutral/-0 wolf" or "-0 town/-0 neutral/-1 wolf".

JWL's lynch could end "-0 town/-2 neutral/+1 wolf" or "-0 town/-0 neutral/-1 wolf".

Put in that context, killing Duck risks losing a townie. Killing JWL risks gaining an effective wolf in the form of making you a wolf-aligned neutral. Giving wolves another person they can trust to be on their side is a big risk, and it's not one I'm willing to take until I've at least heard what Duck has to say. I'm still willing to lynch JWL, but it's not my default here. Honestly both of them pale in comparison to testing the other seer claimant, but the possibility of them being a lucky Fool instead of a scum-seer is staying my hand.

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Oh and it doesn't exactly help that the person advocating for JWL's lynch might have their win condition riding on JWL's death.

I'm really not sure. In a situation like this, I'm not sure what to do. I can see the threat of leaving you two alive but at the same time its lessened now that everybody knows who you are. I'd like to hear from some of the people that haven't weighed in since this happened.

Speaking of which, it actually looks like JWL hasn't spoken since claiming - including any response to Valmark publicly claiming to be the counter-role. Heck not even any confirmation that Valmark was the person JWL was talking privately with who they thought was the other Feuding Villain. I'm sure it was, but confirmation and some discussion from them would be appreciated.

[Valmark]

Guess that's true. For obvious reasons though, my vote's staying on Joy.

[gac3]

Some thoughts.

1. So someone else has claimed seer? I assume privately since I haven't seen it.

2. I think your JWL math for the outcomes doesn't match up with what you are saying.

If JWL if a wolf (and then Valmark turns to the wolves as you said is in their best interest):
then their lynch is -1 neutral/+0 wolves (because Valmark would replace them)
If JWL is the neutral then by your math it should be -1 neutral. or 2 if you think Valmark leaves the game.

3. Valmark claimed to me initially that they are not a neutral that leaves the game, though not necessarily true

4. If we leave both of them alive then doesn't that still favor one of them siding with the wolves (at least short term) trading votes for the death of the other?


edit:
5. reread AV's post. Why would valmark siding with the wolves be in their best interest if their foe isn't out there?

[Duck999]

These two posts look a lot like you going to bat defending JWL, and the logic given rings false in my ears. It sounds like you're trying to throw people off the trail, which is weird if you + JWL are both town, but extra weird if you actually believe JWL is a neutral who isn't particularly town-aligned. However, if you are a townie, duck, please at least consider how dangerous a prospect it is that you're suggesting. We supposedly have two neutrals alive and well right now who want the other to die, and then for the game to end as quickly as possible. You're suggesting that we assume they're both telling the truth, and insisting that therefore our best plan of action is to leave two self-professed non-town-aligned neutrals alive to conspire against each other with whoever can secure their victory the best. Do you really think town is who they're going to try and work with?

I didn't consider the game-to-end-as-quickly-as-possible part of it, but the reason I said what I did is that all they can offer the wolves is a vote. It's not like they're giving any information to the wolves because everything special they know is now public knowledge (and at the time of my post I assumed they both knew nothing besides who the other was). Both of them offer the wolves the same thing, and therefore neither of them can trust the wolves right now to align with them and not the other. Therefore, I think it's better to look for a wolf where there might actually be a wolf and not just a neutral who may possibly later give the wolves another vote.

And judging from your last post, it seems you agree with me.

Put in that context, killing Duck risks losing a townie. Killing JWL risks gaining an effective wolf in the form of making you a wolf-aligned neutral. Giving wolves another person they can trust to be on their side is a big risk, and it's not one I'm willing to take until I've at least heard what Duck has to say. I'm still willing to lynch JWL, but it's not my default here. Honestly both of them pale in comparison to testing the other seer claimant, but the possibility of them being a lucky Fool instead of a scum-seer is staying my hand.

Is this not saying that lynching someone besides JoyWonderLove is better, even if it risks hitting a townie? My reasoning was not as thought out as yours, but in the concept, we seem to agree that it's better to kill someone besides the neutrals.

[gac3]

I didn't consider the game-to-end-as-quickly-as-possible part of it, but the reason I said what I did is that all they can offer the wolves is a vote. It's not like they're giving any information to the wolves because everything special they know is now public knowledge (and at the time of my post I assumed they both knew nothing besides who the other was).

I will quote the posts that were right beofre this below. They show that it was made clear that Valmark at the very least did know more. No telling what JWL knows.

Spoiler

Show

Has anyone besides me given either of them information as to your role? If not I can just put my information here and that should mean that they have nothing to use as leverage to get the wolves to kill the other

At least one more people did, so it's not a great idea for Town.

I'm the lousiest Neutral ever.

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I did not realize that. Really that many people? Athos, Rogue and Logan are typically silent people though, so I expect them to come make a post.
bc was more active last game I believe.

I... Uh, this might get me killed, but Athos did talk to me in QT privately (one message) without showing up here.

Edit: Point being, Duck claims to have thought they had no information, after I said that they had some and Valmark said they had even more than that.

[AvatarVecna]

Some thoughts.

1. So someone else has claimed seer? I assume privately since I haven't seen it.

Correct. As previously mentioned, I've received 7 claims in private. It's 8 now, btw. You people are mad.

2. I think your JWL math for the outcomes doesn't match up with what you are saying.

If JWL if a wolf (and then Valmark turns to the wolves as you said is in their best interest):
then their lynch is -1 neutral/+0 wolves (because Valmark would replace them)
If JWL is the neutral then by your math it should be -1 neutral. or 2 if you think Valmark leaves the game.

Valmark only turns to the wolves if the first part of their goal (get the other Feuding killed) is completed. If JWL flips wolf, Valmark wants the game to keep going to give the best chance of the other Feuding dying before town or wolves all die. If JWL flips Feuding, Valmark's goal switches from "keep the game going" to "end the game as quickly as possible so i don't risk dying". Wolves can end the game quicker than town can, so Valmark has a carrot for working with them, but also has a stick for working with them because any wolf could easily send a PM like "we know who you are and if you dont vote/use your night power how we say to use it, we'll kill you".

The math is essentially: if JWL is a wolf, we lose 1 wolf and that's that. But if JWL is in fact the Feuding Neutral, then killing her not only loses a neutral (-1 neutral), but drives another neutral into working with scum for the above carrot and stick reasons (-1 neutral/+1 wolf).

3. Valmark claimed to me initially that they are not a neutral that leaves the game, though not necessarily true

That could be true. That's still an anti-town conclusion.

4. If we leave both of them alive then doesn't that still favor one of them siding with the wolves (at least short term) trading votes for the death of the other?

That's a risk no matter what. The best solution for town would be if they both died without us having to waste a lynch on either one, but the wolves aren't going to be doing us that favor. They're very effectively wolf-aligned neutral that town has to work hard to make town-aligned. It's unfortunate, but that's that.

edit:
5. reread AV's post. Why would valmark siding with the wolves be in their best interest if their foe isn't out there?

Until the other Feuding is dead, Valmark will want the game to go on as long as possible - if town or wolves die too quickly, then the game ends before the other Feuding can die. But as soon as the other Feuding is dead, Valmark's goal switches to getting the game to end as quickly as possible, to minimize the chances of Valmark dying as well. Town Victories are usually lengthy unless town is very on-the-ball, while Wolf Victories can occur comparatively quickly. In any given game, you're almost always closer to wolf victory than town victory at any given moment. Working with wolves to end the game ASAP would be in Valmark's best interest once the other feuding is dead.

I didn't consider the game-to-end-as-quickly-as-possible part of it, but the reason I said what I did is that all they can offer the wolves is a vote. It's not like they're giving any information to the wolves because everything special they know is now public knowledge (and at the time of my post I assumed they both knew nothing besides who the other was). Both of them offer the wolves the same thing, and therefore neither of them can trust the wolves right now to align with them and not the other. Therefore, I think it's better to look for a wolf where there might actually be a wolf and not just a neutral who may possibly later give the wolves another vote.

And judging from your last post, it seems you agree with me.


Is this not saying that lynching someone besides JoyWonderLove is better, even if it risks hitting a townie? My reasoning was not as thought out as yours, but in the concept, we seem to agree that it's better to kill someone besides the neutrals.

I didn't disagree with you, I just wanted to hear your reasoning. See if you flubbed, or if your explanation still rang hollow.

[Xihirli]

Seer claim. Jumping into Duck999, Sorry Duck.

[Valmark]

Does this mean either me or Joy are likely to be killed during the night? Since it helps the wolves to solve the dispute.

[AvatarVecna]

Does this mean either me or Joy are likely to be killed during the night? Since it helps the wolves to solve the dispute.

Difficult to say. There's pros and cons for wolves killing you in the night, so a lot of it ends up coming down to WIFOM. Would it be better for wolves to leave two uncounterclaimed unflipped neutrals alive so town spends the rest of the game worrying that maybe JWL fake-claimed, or would it better for the wolves to kill one of the claimants to get the other to side with them going forward? Which of those two situations do they want town to think is the case?

[Valmark]

...right, Duck999. Sorry but my best bet right now is that you are a wolf so that Joy becomes more likely to be one and the wolves leave us alive to get Town to lynch her.

Assuming she even is the neutral in question.