Beware of Bites!

[Apogee1]

Huh. I want to say this implicates AV but that feels way too straightforward and probably a set up by the wolves.

This wagon had some fascinating results yesterday so lets go JoyWonderLove to start.

[JeenLeen]

Someone roleblocked me last night, or did something of equivalent effect.

I hope to do more thought on it tonight when I have time, but I wanted to go on and share this so the people I'm talking with know what happened.
But that was very annoying and robbed me of significant intel for the Town. In effect, this means I can't verify rogue_alchemist's claim to me. I also missed out on a chance to figure out who killed Aventine.

- - - Updated - - -

...some more thought.

One: reread Aventine's power, and that is crazy powerful. It's a shame we don't know if he claimed to anyone, since if his power got leaked to the wolves it definitely would have made him a major target. I know AV had claims from several people, but Aventine seemed to really distrust her, so I doubt he told her anything strong.

Two: if AV and rogue_alchemist are scumbuddies, they could have worked together to know to block me. I've told AV basically everything I can, including how my power works. I don't think I told them what rogue_alchemist power-claimed to me, but I said enough that they could infer part of it and that I was testing it. She also knew my power was going to target Aventine and maybe find their killer.
rogue_alchemist didn't know my power, but knew it might help me catch a killer if I target who dies. And that I was to target Aventine.

I'll still keep rogue_alchemist's powerclaim private for now. He could be Town stuck with the bad luck of me being blocked when it was supposed to get a lot of intel in coordination with him. But it's suspicious. And I'll start voting on AvatarVecna just in case.

[Snowblaze]

So, I have basically no clue what’s going on. I’ll start by voting for [color=red]bc56[/color], at least until he answers my questions from yesterday:

Why do you think rogue_alchemist is town? And if you’re not sure about the JWL wagon, why are you still on it?

[bc56]

So, I have basically no clue what’s going on. I’ll start by voting for bc56, at least until he answers my questions from yesterday:

I can explain my logic.
Rogue said something that sounded very much like town to me. I'm not going to go digging for the exact quote, but it amounted to "No matter what I do, I'm going to be associated with wolves." While this is true if he is a wolf, it feels like something a wolf wouldn't say, because it immediately brings to mind the possibility that the speaker is a wolf.
As for the question of why I didn't move, just because I'm uneasy about the wagon didn't mean I saw a better option. And we all know how people who change their votes at the last second are seen.

For now, I'm going to hold off on voting until I see how the wagons develop.

[Snowblaze]

Fair enough. I don’t have anything else to go on, though, so leaving my vote where it is for now. Hopefully tomorrow I can come up with some strong reads.

[Elenna]

Fascinating. I was also roleblocked last night. Obviously I didn't roleblock myself, and I also didn't roleblock JeenLeen.

For the sake of transparency: I tried to redirect bc56 to target AV last night, at AV's suggestion, mostly for the amusement factor of seeing how many people we could get to target AV in one night. bc56 was picked pretty much at random out of the semi-active players who hadn't contacted me.

I told two people that I was taking a suggestion made by AV, but not exactly what that suggestion was. I can identify them if people want to know, I guess, but I'm not really sure if that makes them more likely to be wolves or not.
Or maybe the roleblocking has nothing to do with those people and someone just doesn't want to play

[AvatarVecna]

Firstly, yes, I'm aware I'm responding to somebody who can't reply back. That's not the point. Actually directly engaging the person arguing is a much smaller part of debate than engaging with the people watching, and since the alternative is letting all of this go unaddressed, I'm addressing it even though arguing with a dead confirmed townie is admittedly NAGL.

I voted for him. I'm not tunneling him. I never "[took] it as proof positive that [I]'ve caught a wolf D1." Overblown and overexaggerated claims are curious.

You voted him, and when I popped up to explain to him why you took issue with his statement because he clearly wasn't getting the problem, you latched onto the idea that he was a wolf and I was defending him, and you started reading scumminess into everything either of us did, which totally shows in your ISO on me and RA.

Oooooooooh boy. This one gets a spoiler of its own.

Spoiler: You're hilariously wrong

Show

By my count…

Athos reaches two votes (taking the lead) 5:40 after the beginning of Day One.
Athos remains the leading wagon until Apogee switches to JWL, putting her in the lead, 13:50 after that.
The voting is tied again by JeenLeen (with JWL still the set to be lynched) 24:40 after that.
Athos is returned to leading by AV 15:50 after that.
EOD is two minutes later.

Athos was the leading wagon for a total of less than fourteen hours, with all but two minutes in the first half of the day. He was tied, but not going to be lynched, for a little less than 16 hours. The two of those together are very nearly half the day, not close to "90%." I would not expect him to claim when he was leading early on: there was far too much time left in the day. I also would not expect him to claim when he was tied but not going to be killed. By the time he was in actual danger, it was too late to do anything.

Why are you blatantly lying?

So, "leading or tying for 90% of the day" was just me throwing off an exaggerated number - you know, the way 87% of statistics on the internet are made up on the spot to support a point?

Time [18.46-18.53), Post [2-4): Lord Athos is losing.
Time [18.53-24.26), Post [4-12): LA is tied, losing the tie.
Time [24.26-33.27), Post [12-29): LA is winning.
Time [33.27-36.32), Post [29-40): LA is tied, winning the tie.
Time [36.32-37.03), Post [40-44): LA is winning.
Time [37.03-37.34), Post [44-47): LA is tied, winning the tie.
Time [37.34-38.00), Post [47-58): LA is winning.
Time [38.00-38.12), Post [58-66): LA is tied, winning the tie.
Time [38.12-38.15), Post [66-71): LA is winning.
Time [38.15-62.56), Post [71-113): LA is losing.
Time [62.56-78.27), Post [113-124): LA is tied, losing the tie.
Time [78.27-78.33), Post [124-125): LA is winning.
Time [78.33-78.44), Post [125-130): LA is tied, winning the tie.
Time [78.44-78.46), Post [130-132): LA is winning.

D1 starts post [2 and ends post 132). 130 posts. D1 starts June 1st @ 6:46pm, and ends June 4th 6:46am. 3600 minutes.

LA is losing for 44 posts/1488 minutes. This is 33.846% of the posts/41.333% of the time.

LA is tied/losing for 19 posts/1264 minutes. This is 14.615% of the posts/35.111% of the time.

LA is tied/winning for 27 posts/239 minutes. This is 20.769% of the posts/6.638% of the time.

LA is winning for 40 posts/609 minutes. This is 30.769% of the posts/16.916% of the time.

Lord Athos is "winning or tying" for 66.154% of the posts/58.666% of the time. The "90%" I threw out off the top of my head was inaccurate, but you're misrepresenting the data to make me look worse. This is the exact kind of tunneling I'm talking about

That's an interesting stretch. Might very well be true. But I really don't see any grounds to assume a mime is neutral just because it "can" be interpreted as a "'clown'".

You're trying to use the specific word choice to undermine my point. Role names that read as "doesn't take things seriously" are either the classic Fool town role (which nobody would claim N1, because the point of the Fool is that they don't know they're the Fool), or a neutral who doesn't care who lives or dies or wins or loses cuz they're just here to have fun. Clowns, pranksters, faeries, mimes, talking heads...whatever name they're going by, they're usually neutral in my experience. And I feel like you know the phenomenon I'm talking about, and are ignoring it for...some reason. Last night, I was convinced it was because you were trying to set me up for the lynch today because you're a wolf undermining town. Now I know it's just one more layer to your incessant tunneling that you insisted you weren't doing.

A weird accusation there. If you're referring to me dropping off of Lord Athos without him saying much, I'll remind you that you agreed with that move.

I agreed at the time because LA was the counterwagon to JWL, who I was more focused/tunneling on. I changed my mind by the end of the day regarding Lord Athos. And if LA had flipped wolf, I wouldn't have NK'd you at all even with you being a giant jerk because I know you don't bus.

Huh? I said you should have given reads of your own. Then I acknowledged that you had given some earlier, and pointed out that at least some have changed since then. Implying that you should give us an update. I'm not calling for you to be lynched because your reads changed. You continue to insist on overreacting and presenting a very strange interpretation of the things I say.

At this point of reading through your post, I was convinced you were just a wolf endlessly mudslinging in my direction to set up a D2 mislynch on me, and I took this statement as an additional attack on my behavior (ie "AV is willing to ask, but wont provide, HMMMMMM must be wolf but might not be but probably is" is how it came across).

Should I just take it as a compliment that you are worried about the wolves seeing my analysis, but not rogue's? Or should I "keep quiet until seconds before [I] die and never share any meaningful analysis with anybody"? You seem very eager to get analysis from people, even after EOD, right up until I call you out for not giving any of your own.

Yes, you should take it as a compliment. Your first big post sent me into a panic because you called out a useful townie as probably very wolfy, and claimed three inactives were trying to fly under the radar. It reminded me why I shouldn't encourage nighttalk even from people who I don't think will shape the NK much - because then people who's thoughts would shape the NK will show up and provide them. So I tried to walk back the statement and get you to hold off your analysis until morning - I asked because you'd made me realize I was wrong to ask it from anybody. But because it was RA I asked it from, and you that I asked to hold off on posting more, you took it as just further proof that RA and I are scumbuddies and went off the rails, and that's the post that convinced me you're a wolf.

The first big analysis post either called out an inactive wolf, or combines with your death to set up an easy mislynch on me today. The second big analysis post convinced me you were a wolf. Posting analysis at night objectively played a huge hand in getting you killed, no matter what the explanation is for why there's only one corpse today. I bear most of the blame because I actually fired a shot (and honestly, I shouldn't have even engaged the post last night the way I did), but that doesn't change that you were figuratively (and later literally) asking to get shot.

- - - Updated - - -

For now I'd like to hear more from the full half of the player base that's either inactive or coasting everybody. Let's start with eenie-meanie-miney CaoimhinTheCape. Wanna hear your thoughts about the wagons yesterday and the discussions during the night. I'd also like to hear your top three town leans and scum leans.

[Apogee1]

The first big analysis post either called out an inactive wolf, or combines with your death to set up an easy mislynch on me today. The second big analysis post convinced me you were a wolf. Posting analysis at night objectively played a huge hand in getting you killed, no matter what the explanation is for why there's only one corpse today. I bear most of the blame because I actually fired a shot (and honestly, I shouldn't have even engaged the post last night the way I did), but that doesn't change that you were figuratively (and later literally) asking to get shot.

Hold up this is a claim you vig'ged him and the actual NK was blocked/doctored/etc.

I don't really know how to take that

[AvatarVecna]

Hold up this is a claim you vig'ged him and the actual NK was blocked/doctored/etc.

I don't really know how to take that

There's a few explanations for why there was only one kill last night. I don't know what the correct explanation is. I'll post my ideas here, and if you've got possibilities I hadn't considered, please say so. And yes, I targeted Aventine to die last night, just like I said I would when he literally asked me to. I wasn't sure he'd be dead this morning, mostly cuz the conversation publicly and privately had me guessing it was a 50/50 shot the baner (whoever they were) would bane me or Aventine (the most likely kill-targets at that point).

) Wolves and I both targeted Aventine in the night. Maybe they thought the public performance was a gambit, or maybe they wanted to make sure he was dead and that I'd be held responsible (which is fair, since regardless of what wolves did, I did try to kill him).

2) Either I or the wolf responsible for performing the nightkill was roleblocked. Given that I'm not sure if this is one of those games where a specific wolf carries out the kill (unless it was the example Beast role, I guess), and given how Night 1 went down for me in Villains, I would assume I got roleblocked of the two - but then Valmark hasn't indicated I was roleblocked, and when I asked he said "if you were roleblocked, I would've told you that".

3) Wolves and I targeted different people, and weren't roleblocked, but the wolves' target was baned. I don't think this is likely, because I can't imagine a scenario where Aventine didn't bane himself. It's possible Elenna baned the wolf target, or some unnamed town JOAT did it, but the former claims to have been blocked and the latter is pure speculation on my part (certainly, I've received no JOAT claims).

4) Extremely unlikely, but given that half the player base is barely even participating...maybe we've gotten absurdly lucky and the wolves are all low-effort players? I'd rather not operate going forward on that assumption, at least not without proof. Or rather, we've gotten lucky in the sense that wolves are asleep at the wheel, but not lucky in the fact that this would mean I'm 100% responsible for killing our doctor. >.>

5) Aventine baned himself (because who wouldn't, under the circumstances), was targeted by both me and the wolves. My kill bounced off the bane, but the wolves have the Lycanthrop available and they used the Lycan's perfect kill. We've got a public claim to the playful monster and a revealed Doctor, and I've received private claims to all the other example roles, so it stands to reason that the wolves probably have a Lycan.

[Bunny of Faith]

I told two people that I was taking a suggestion made by AV, but not exactly what that suggestion was. I can identify them if people want to know, I guess, but I'm not really sure if that makes them more likely to be wolves or not.
Or maybe the roleblocking has nothing to do with those people and someone just doesn't want to play

I'll call myself out here on being one of the people who knew about this from Elenna, but I also spoke to AV about it as well.

My lack of commentary is mostly due to not being garbage at reading people, and my gut instincts feel like they're the opposite of reliable.


--Edit--

I'll say that Elenna seems like a very odd choice to roleblock though, as I see it? The general thread consensus seems to be that they are who they say they are, in which case roleblocking them seems fairly pointless unless they're intentionally wanting to delay their exit?

[Apogee1]

My takes on a few of AV's points and a few other possibilities:

1) This feels likely to me -- I originally (before knowing about vig) figured killing Aventine was to implicate AV so it's not impossible. Question is then if Aventine protected someone who wasn't theirself or if the wolves have at least one strongman shot

2) I'll have to leave it to your understanding of if you were blocked (and how much we trust that)

3) If Aventine didn't bane theirself then this might be possible

4) This would require like exactly a very certain scumteam.

5) Maybe

A few other possibilities

A) Wolves targeted a player who has a 1x or general bulletproof ability (if you do claiming in private might help figure this out but idk if that's a good idea for sure)

B) AV is scum pulling a combo TWTBW and "oops roleblocked" gambit on us (serious 3 people have had being roleblocked as a possibility to what happened at night that seems really unlikely but since this situation doesn't really need a roleblocker its ok)

I'd say 1,3 and A are the most likely scenarios followed by 5 and B

[Bunny of Faith]

B) AV is scum pulling a combo TWTBW and "oops roleblocked" gambit on us (serious 3 people have had being roleblocked as a possibility to what happened at night that seems really unlikely but since this situation doesn't really need a roleblocker its ok)

I might be missing someone, but I think that only JeenLeen and Elenna specifically called being roleblocked? Since AV asked Val and was informed they'd specifically have been told if they were roleblocked or not, which I assume they weren't. That doesn't seem super unreasonable to me, if there's a roleblocker on either side?

[Apogee1]

I might be missing someone, but I think that only JeenLeen and Elenna specifically called being roleblocked? Since AV asked Val and was informed they'd specifically have been told if they were roleblocked or not, which I assume they weren't. That doesn't seem super unreasonable to me, if there's a roleblocker on either side?

Yeah that's what I was trying to say in the parenthetical -- we can probably rule out the roleblocking of AV or the wolves' factional unless something weird is up with how the PRs are, but it doesn't mean AV isn't correct about other things or that they are lying about the possibilities tonight.

- - - Updated - - -

However, AV could still be running a gambit but I don't really have information to confirm or deny this, and since this claim should be drawing attention (and the attention of PRs) it would be bold to do so.

Then again, it is AV

[Elenna]

I'll call myself out here on being one of the people who knew about this from Elenna, but I also spoke to AV about it as well.

My lack of commentary is mostly due to not being garbage at reading people, and my gut instincts feel like they're the opposite of reliable.


--Edit--

I'll say that Elenna seems like a very odd choice to roleblock though, as I see it? The general thread consensus seems to be that they are who they say they are, in which case roleblocking them seems fairly pointless unless they're intentionally wanting to delay their exit?

Yeah, I wondered if maybe someone was worried about me baning/roleblocking someone and wanted to be certain it wouldn't happen? IDEK.
Either that, or one of the people I talked to is or thinks they are on the opposite side as AV and wanted to disrupt their plans?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright, a few pieces to this post then:

I told two people that I was taking a suggestion made by AV, but not exactly what that suggestion was.

I don't mind saying that I'm the other person Elenna mentioned it to. AV gave me a little info on the idea but I did not know the other person involved and I didn't know which vortex would be used (Elenna's role is supposed to have two).

---

Aventine's Kill

Spoiler

Show

Looking back at the discussion between Ave and AV, plus the fact that AV made it public knowledge they had a kill, plus the passive benefit of the Doc - it would make sense for Aventine to protect themselves (assuming they could). All that leaves is a strongkill from the wolves that would get through or Ave couldn't protect themselves.


So how does Ave end up dead? Would wolves burn their unblockable kill on Ave Night 1 just on the basis of them looking town? Or would they have known Ave's role and knew to use their unblockable kill?


It's possible Ave had someone else they wanted to protect or was unable to protect themselves. We won't know that till the game is over.


tl;dr - I'm worried the wolves knew Ave was the doc ahead of time.

---

Day 1 Wagons

Spoiler

Show

Ehhh. Day 1 is essentially random and I can't say I favored any particular horse in the race. I wish any of the people involved had claimed earlier so we could take those into consideration. For the most part it was between JoyWonderLove and Athos, both of which had 4 votes by the end of the second page.

gac, Jeen, and AV may look a little odd for jumping on at the end of the day, though according to AV their reason was:

Got a vote-manipulation claim, and was testing it. Results were...intriguing.

JoyWonderLove is overall a null read for me, their posts Day 1 haven't pushed me to feel either way about them.


rogue_alchemist was very resistant to changing votes for one reason or another and was looking to collude to get a towncore going. According to Jeen, this was not able to be tested. Can't put him in either category but I wish any sort of proof there had played out.


@AvatarVecna Is there anything you'd like to share with the class about the intriguing results?

---

Wolf Leans / People I'm Worried About

Spoiler

Show

Avatar Vecna: Hey buddy! You're on this list partially for claiming to have so much information and it obviously not going well last night, but it seemed to be a perfect storm against proving you innocent:

- You claim to have shot at Aventine. This could have been proven if the doc was still alive and we got the additional info the Doc role provides.
- There was only one kill so we're left to guess if something stopped the wolves shot and it was only you, or if Ave saved themselves and the wolves did a strong kill.
- We now have no way of proving you, as this was your one shot for the whole game. So I don't see how we can be sure of your role. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Basically I'm worried you're a wolf with way too much information, you've already claimed, and are just manipulating everything by people assuming you're town.



Elenna: Yes this is a claimed neutral role that no one has counterclaimed. But I don't like that she was blocked. She's honestly a pretty good target to roleblock, if you want to keep her in the game. At this point, Elenna has offered to help out whichever side is the most fun and after this roleblock asking for a pass until Night 5 of the game. Any scries against Elenna will come up as Monster rather than Human (per the claim) so even if Elenna is checked it won't give us anything new.

She wouldn't have been up here if she hadn't been roleblocked and is now asking for a pass to Night 5/Day 6. Wolves (whether Elenna is one or not) have a reason for keeping her around - she's a free agent and she will now be in the game longer in case she decides to work with them.




[REDACTED]: Through the grapevine I heard that someone was supposedly able to prove their power yesterday and didn't. That's a big red flag for me but as I'm not privy to all of the information and they could end up being town I don't want to get them in too much trouble yet.



Book Wombat, Logan, bc, Bunny: not a wolf lean so much as I want to see more before I decide. Until then, not being around is unhelpful to town. bc and Bunny did post today but I would like to see more of an opinion or vote.

---

Town Leans / People I'm Comfortable With

Spoiler

Show

Lord Athos and Aventine: RIP

Possibly Other People: I honestly don't know how much I want to telegraph the people I'm super comfortable with, given we just lost our doctor. I'm gonna stay kinda quiet on this for now, though I do have a couple town leans.

---

You know what? I'll start a wagon on AvatarVecna and see where it goes. Sure, it's a little bit of OMGUS but for now AV has a lot of power and I'm worried that others have given too much away to AV.

Curious to see what other people think on AV's claimed knowledge. Also interested in Rogue and Joy giving their reads, since they were the other wagons from Day 1.


Vote Count
JoyWonderLove 1 (Apogee1)
AvatarVecna 2 (JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape)
bc56 1 (Snowblaze)
CaoimhinTheCape 1 (AvatarVecna)


Posted but didn't vote: Unavenger, bc56, Elenna, Bunny of Faith

No posts: Rogue_alchemist, Book Wombat, gac3, JoyWonderLove, Logan1996

[JeenLeen]

If anyone knows who roleblocked me, I'd appreciate them telling me. Or stating it publicly alongside a vote.

After comparing some notes with others, I'm pretty sure it was neither Elenna nor the Doubting Cop. So it's probably a wolf voider. At least, if AV is telling me the truth--which I have some reason to doubt, so still keeping my vote on her for now.

[JeenLeen]

Someone told me that JoyWonderLove roleblocked me last Night. Since I think I know who the Cop roleblocked, makes me think JWL is a wolf voider.

I agree with the risks about letting AV live, but I think we can let it slide one more night. She could be a solid Town worker, could be a grand wolf manipulator, but I'd rather get JWL out of the way.
Also, however JWL flips would give evidence for or against AV, and possibly incriminate the person who told me they roleblocked me.

[Apogee1]

Well since we are wagoning JWL as I’ve always wanted and there seems to be evidence I’m putting FOS on Gac as a likely buddy

- - - Updated - - -

Actually JeenLeen that’s an implication that the copblocker went for Elenna correct?

[JeenLeen]

Actually JeenLeen that’s an implication that the copblocker went for Elenna correct?

Correct.
AV told me that the Cop roleblocked Elenna last night. I didn't want to state that openly, because I don't want to give Elenna a reason (even if a petty reason like spite) to side with the wolves. But now that I've been asked, no reason not to answer.

IF AV was honest, then the Cop blocked Elenna. My contact about JWL clarified that they know JWL used a roleblock and they only think it was targeting me. (I misunderstood at first.) But, if the Cop targeted Elenna, Elenna couldn't void anyone, then I'm the only person left and JWL the only voider left. And I doubt we have two Town voiders.

So lynch JWL. If they flip Town, go after AV and I'll rat out who told me JWL blocked me.

[gac3]

Correct.
AV told me that the Cop roleblocked Elenna last night. I didn't want to state that openly, because I don't want to give Elenna a reason (even if a petty reason like spite) to side with the wolves. But now that I've been asked, no reason not to answer.

IF AV was honest, then the Cop blocked Elenna. My contact about JWL clarified that they know JWL used a roleblock and they only think it was targeting me. (I misunderstood at first.) But, if the Cop targeted Elenna, Elenna couldn't void anyone, then I'm the only person left and JWL the only voider left. And I doubt we have two Town voiders.

So lynch JWL. If they flip Town, go after AV and I'll rat out who told me JWL blocked me.

That sounds convincing enough for me. JoyWonderLove

Will add a more thorough response to things later but wanted to comment on some things.

Aventine said null read on Jeenleen's discussion about unique views because it was off topic. I disagree. A wolf shouldn't mention unique views publically. They definitely shouldn't get it publically explained how they work. First, either they are genuinely curious and the wolves probably could explain it, or they know the answers and should know that unique views are a big tip off that someone is sharing a QT with their wolf buddies. The whole discussion should likely be a strong town lean. It is for me at least.

I was also grouped with Jeen and AV for moving votes around near the end of day? That's not true. I wasn't part of whatever that was and my votes should be able to prove that. Though I would love to know what the results were.

Snowblaze, be careful with the buffer post thing. I got a disciplinary warning for that during HP. Apparently the problem is stating it is a buffer post, not doing one. Stating you are making a buffer post apparently falls under spam. Just so you know.

[Snowblaze]

Well, AV is spreading misinformation - whether accidentally or on purpose, who knows? The Lycanthrope does not have an unblockable kill, contrary to what AV said. It’s the Beast role.

I am getting very paranoid about AV right now, but not paranoid enough to want them dead. Mostly hoping the wolves will do that for us!

On JoyWonderLove:
Now that Aventine is confirmed town, Apogee1’s argument for the Athos wagon being a counter holds a lot less weight. My vote to start that wagon was before JWL was under any threat and JWL shouldn’t be suspected just for a self-preservation vote at this point. That leaves only Book Wombat as suspicious under that theory.

As for the roleblock thing, I’m not a hundred percent convinced. Even if this source of yours is telling the truth, it could be that JWL is some kind of jack-of-all-trades role or a random-power role like Duck’s in EVWW who just happened to use a roleblock last night, as opposed to a full-fledged roleblocker.

Leaving my vote where it is for now, I’ll wait and see how things play out.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Apogee1 ISO

Show

Let's do this. Rng o'clock says Lord Athos

RNG vote. Null.

Parts of this I like, especially the beginning with what to do if cop claims. However, odds are reasonable there is a doctor/jailkeeper/other protective style role in this game. So I'd think with a Doubting Cop claim it makes more sense to verify the Trusting as you suggested, then lynch outside of the pair. We then have the protective target the Doubting.

Four cases then happen:

NK doesn't kill either, we have strong but not certain belief in two clear town PRs.

NK kills the real Trusting/Doubting who were not either of the claimants. Interrogation time on the claimants!

NK kills Doubting claimant who told the truth. Lynch the trusted claim for obvious reasons. This works out about the same as above, because while it would be better to lynch a wolf first its not a massive setback.

NK kills Trusting. We have confirmed townies, who gets a roleblock and a vig shot at least before dying and can work on a network for 2 nights and a day

There are some other fringes involving CCs and what not but I think always lynching within the pair (presuming verification) is taking a big risk.

- - - Updated - - -

I guess my plan is somewhat more risky but I think the chance of a protective being in play is good enough to make the chance of establishing a longer-lived town core worth it.

Also, a watcher style role on the doubting would likely bag a second wolf, so that could work as pseudo-protection as well.

A solid plan, albeit one that is less viable now. I appreciate that people are clearly putting some thought into the semi-anti-town Lover pair, and I don't think wolves would be posting stuff like this, at least not at that point when the doctor was still alive. Weak town lean.

Interested in the shift from 2/2/2 wagons on Athos, JWL, and gac to 3/3/2 on Athos, Logan, JWL ...

- - - Updated - - -

Gac what's going on with both of your votes being more or less OMGUS

Slight call-out about the wagon weirdness, but nothing a wolf couldn't post guiltlessly. Null.

Nevermind I think I got your quotes from previous games mixed up with stuff that actually happened in this game.

Null.

I still really don't like how whenever another wagon gets close the Athos wagon has someone pop out and vote on it again. Might be a coincidence but how often is an RVS wagon up to 4 genuine? (I honestly am not certain on this -- not a purely rhetorical question)

First serious call-out of the wagonomics that dominated the day. A subtle defense of Lord Athos that (at the time) could've easily been read as a wolf defending another wolf early in the day without working too hard to do so. But now we know LA was town, so LA/Apogee as a wolf pair is impossible. Weak town lean, because I could see a wolf pointing this out as a way to comment on publicly-available data without actually really saying anything new (it's more or less as technically-useful and effectively-useless as just posting a full vote history, but I'm leaning towards it being towny).

Eh I'm fine with seeing how it unfolds for a bit I'm more interested in conversation around the wagons than actually putting EOD wagons into shape right now. Not sure where I'd drop my vote anyways for more than cursory reasons at this point.

Is more interested in generating conversation around the weirdness than just lynching people. Seeking information and conversation over just murder feels towny to me. Town lean.

If I rephrased my statement as every time JoyWonderLove gets a vote, the Athos wagon increases would you be more suspicious? (It happened)

Continues this convo, already said my piece on that. Weak town lean.

I'm inclined to believe this because I was thinking about using this strategy if I randed playful spirit myself.

Only trouble is if Elenna gets blackmailed one way or another to support a non-town agenda.

Null. Wolf could've posted this, but so could town.

Overt reasons are a mix of RVS and people voting thread absentees
Hot take is to protect JWL (I don't really believe this but its not inconceivable).

Continuing this line of thought, I've already said my piece on that. Weak town lean.

AND NOW JWL joins the wagon!!

I know that is a self pres but I mean my theory of Athos getting sent up to protect people just looks better and better.

Lets see how this goes. JoyWonderLove

Spent a lot of time talking about how it's weird that the LA wagon and the counterwagon were more or less growing in parallel, then unironically engages in the same behavior (even pointing out that they know they're doing that). Weak wolf lean, cuz this feels a little off to me.

That is a possibility. I like to think as a wolf I wouldn't blatantly defend a partner like this D1 but besides incidental evidence from Crazy Idea there isn't much to support that.

In the abstract, I also think the pattern of the wagon increasing on Athos is more suspicious than the wagon on you.

Acknowledges that their vote runs a little against the argument they've been making all day, but ultimately seems to think the JWL wagon was more legit. Would be a wolf lean if LA had flipped wolf, but LA flipped town so this is null.

Yes, it seems that the votes against you are motivated by inactivity. I'm worried by unexplained votes onto Athos whenever your wagon gets close to yours.
A little voting history:
You and Athos were tied 2/2 (Snowblaze and myself on Athos, Bc and Caiomhim on you)
At this point Aventine changes votes to Athos (3/2)
Logan votes for you (3/3)
Wombat votes for Athos (4/3)
AV votes for you (4/4)
You vote for Athos (5/4) which is pretty expected so I don't hold it against you directly
I change to voting for you (4/5)

Although thinking about it this could be an attempted save of Athos as well (with Gac and maybe Jeen deflecting my suspicions with thier counterwagon quotes so IDK)

Continuing this conversation. Normally just counting votes and not doing much analysis is a wolf trying to look towny, but this comes across more as providing direct support for the argument he's been making, which balances it out. Null.

They don't have to spend the kill just convince Elenna they might spend the kill for her to help them more than us.

Which I could see them doing if they think having those powers on tap is worth more than a single NK (or maybe not 1 NK is worth a fair amount I suppose).

Serious (albeit short) discussion about how the wolves might react to the neutral claimant. I think a townie would be more likely to discuss this publicly than a wolf. Weak town lean.

I mean isn't it also self resolving in a way, where if Elenna hasn't left after n4 we get really suspicious of what's going on?

Thought hard abut how to think about this idea. I'm thinking weak wolf lean. This is a subtle argument that Elenna should be assumed neutral until after the point where it doesn't make sense for her to stick around. I could see a townie making this point, but let's put it this way: if Elenna flips wolf, posts like this don't look good.

Hmm well EOD may or may not occur before I wake up and check the thread in the morning. I'm okay with keeping my vote on JWL based on page 3, but if someone figures any thing major out in the next 8 hours I'll do my best to be back here and update my vote with that information.

Null. Townie could post this. Wolf could post this without worrying.

Hmm well he was the mime...

Null. Pure empty commentary.

Well Athos is confirmed villager so it's not like I had much reason to protect him if I were scum.

Yeah I still think JWL and maybe a few of the people on the Athos wagon are a little suspect, but I'll also admit part of the reason I pushed that hard was to get some conversation going. Figured a little D1 back and forth would be more useful both then and going forward for figuring out alignments.

Comments on exactly the wolf-wolf interaction I mentioned as a possibility earlier, and that I mentioned is now impossible and shouldn't be considered or taken into account. Whatever Apogee is, he's not scumbuddies with Lord Athos. Obviously. Null.

Huh. I want to say this implicates AV but that feels way too straightforward and probably a set up by the wolves.

This wagon had some fascinating results yesterday so lets go JoyWonderLove to start.

Serious WIFOM surrounding the night results, and I'm not sure I trust somebody who assumes it's fine and doesn't feel a need to test my slot after how the night went down. Weak wolf lean.

Hold up this is a claim you vig'ged him and the actual NK was blocked/doctored/etc.

I don't really know how to take that

Previous post is "a single kill at night when AV said he'd kill Aventine makes AV look bad but I think that's a trick". This post seems surprised that I'm claiming to have taken a vigshot at Aventine at all? What? Weak wolf lean.

My takes on a few of AV's points and a few other possibilities:

1) This feels likely to me -- I originally (before knowing about vig) figured killing Aventine was to implicate AV so it's not impossible. Question is then if Aventine protected someone who wasn't theirself or if the wolves have at least one strongman shot

2) I'll have to leave it to your understanding of if you were blocked (and how much we trust that)

3) If Aventine didn't bane theirself then this might be possible

4) This would require like exactly a very certain scumteam.

5) Maybe

A few other possibilities

A) Wolves targeted a player who has a 1x or general bulletproof ability (if you do claiming in private might help figure this out but idk if that's a good idea for sure)

B) AV is scum pulling a combo TWTBW and "oops roleblocked" gambit on us (serious 3 people have had being roleblocked as a possibility to what happened at night that seems really unlikely but since this situation doesn't really need a roleblocker its ok)

I'd say 1,3 and A are the most likely scenarios followed by 5 and B

...okay, so according to Apogee, the order of "believable explanations" goes like this:

1) Aventine didn't bane himself, but was targeted by both AV and wolves.

3) Aventine didn't bane himself, was targeted by AV, and his bane target was targeted by the wolves.

A) Wolves targeted a single-use self-baned person.

5) Wolves used their perfect-kill on Aventine.

B) AV is scum playing us all for fools.

2) Wolves got their kill roleblocked.

4) Wolves are inactive.

...I know I'm not the person who should be making this argument, but also like...how is "the baner getting publicly threatened with murder didn't bane himself" not merely the most believable situation, but more believable than "AV is a wolf lying about stuff"? I'm glad to have somebody defending me but this defense rubs me the wrong way. I feel like I'm getting pocketed. Strong wolf lean.

Yeah that's what I was trying to say in the parenthetical -- we can probably rule out the roleblocking of AV or the wolves' factional unless something weird is up with how the PRs are, but it doesn't mean AV isn't correct about other things or that they are lying about the possibilities tonight.

- - - Updated - - -

However, AV could still be running a gambit but I don't really have information to confirm or deny this, and since this claim should be drawing attention (and the attention of PRs) it would be bold to do so.

Then again, it is AV

Makes a good argument for why 2 is unlikely (which is fair - wolves getting their factional kill roleblocked is unlikely, and I know I wasn't roleblocked). But then he walks back his previous defense on me. Wishy washy wolves play the middle ground like this. Wolf lean.

Apogee1: -2
Lotta D1 stuff feels good, lotta D2 stuff feels bad. In particular, I'm paranoid that I'm getting pocketed, so that if Apogee flips wolf, stuff like these D2 posts would be what pushed people over the edge into lynching me the next day. I do like that Apogee is the most active player other than me, and that most of their posts seem to be putting thought into the game, but if they're a wolf that activity isn't good for town.

Spoiler: Aventine ISO

Show

Aventine has flipped town, so this ISO is less about determining alignment and more sussing out Aventine's real thoughts now that we know his intentions were good.

I have trouble picturing a wolf being that careless and blatant. So FOS on you for going after an easy target.

But, I am also perfectly willing to OMGUS today, gac.

"FoS for suspecting gac3. Also, I suspect gac3."

Like, okay yeah, I'm still a little salty at getting tunneled so hard by Aventine, but like...seriously look at this.

*shrug*

FOS on everybody, since that's apparently where we're going.

This is in response to me calling out the hypocrisy in the previous post, and Aventine responds with "well if you have suspicions about me this early in D1, I guess we're ALL suspicious". It honestly feels like casting shade on the idea of reading into things, and it's really weird knowing this was posted by a veteran player who was legitimately town.

I'll throw a vote on Lord Athos

Didn't tell us much then, doesn't tell us much now.

*mimics AV and squints suspiciouslier*

"I didn't do the thing I should have done. Now that I've been called out on that being odd I'm going to try to give a justification, but only half-heartedly and hedge by accepting that my argument isn't good. But only do that half-heartedly too, giving another justification for why I didn't do the thing. Oh, did I mention the super townie thing I did? Uhhhh..... Oh, hey, look at those people over there! Oops, I don't want to vote for the person that already has a vote on them, so I'm going to immediately edit to cross out that vote and vote for someone else who also has a vote on them."

I kinda agree with this take, although I tend to view Unavenger as townie for their overreaction, rather than wolfy. But I'll cover that in Unavenger's ISO when I eventually get to it.

This feels too strong of a reaction. Especially for not even having any votes.

---

I like Lord Athos being calm. I'm gonna jump to Book Wombat.

As above, so here. But also, places a vote on the inactive (at the time) Book Wombat. I'm unsure if this was indicating more specific suspicion or if it was just "I dont wanna be voting the guy I feel better about now, so I'll vote an inactive". It's probably the latter, but...

...well, put a pin in that.

(bold added by me)

I wanted to see how Athos would respond to having votes on him. I saw that. With as much time left in the day as there was, I wanted to see if I could get more reactions.

Also given how much time is left in the day, he wasn't in enough danger for me to worry if we're scum-buddies. Pushing him into the lead, and making him a real wagon at 3, then panicking and jumping off because he...wasn't even the leading wagon anymore? That's what you think I was doing?

On the other hand, you very much sound like you're desperate for an excuse to vote for Athos.

I'm trying to give Aventine's reads more of a fair shake, and in this case I can see where he's coming from. At best this is a bad read from gac3. At worst...

Acknowledges that there is value in coming back later and seeing who voted how on day one. Then keeps his vote on someone he originally voted for based on RNG and who now has, realistically, no chance of being lynched today.

In other words: knows day one voting patterns can be informative and avoids giving us anything that could potentially link him to scum in the future.

I agreed with this take at the time, even as I didn't feel as strongly about it as Aventine did. It's something I'll have to keep in mind when doing rogue_alchemist's ISO.

rogue_alchemist.

(I don't like switching off Wombat without having heard from him. So be warned, Wombat, that I'm gonna tunnel-vision you hard tomorrow if I don't hear from you before end-of-day)

Put a pin in that.

That was well before my vote. I wanted a response to being voted for.

Put a pin in that.

Do remember to account for Valmark having access to QTs as narrator.

Aventine providing a bit of voice of reason w/r/t QT unique views. Appreciated.

Part I

Apogee – I’m overall ok with him. I do worry that what he’s said so far is too easy for a scum to do. Possibly pushed the theory that JWL is a wolf (and the wolves were pushing Athos’s wagon) a little too hard. Null read that will change a lot based on whether the wagons were town-town or not.

The following people are trying to fly under the radar:

• bc56
• Bunny
• Caoimhin

Elenna is worth believing for the moment. Though if the claim is fake, the real spirit has no motivation to counter, so she should not be considered cleared.

I've already addressed the part of this that related directly to me. Apogee is the most active player, and admittedly at the time had a lot of townie-looking posts so makes sense why he wouldn't get a fuller rundown like I did. The point about Elenna is...well I also believe Elenna, but at the same time I'm concerned that giving somebody who is at best a neutral out for themselves a "get out of lynches free" card until D5 (D6 now)...well, I don't like it.

the list of people flying under the radar is one I agree with, except there's something weird...but put a pin in that.

A very interesting response from AV.

I've already addressed this post..

I love you too.

This post is empty of content.

Oh, now you want me to continue? Must've been your evil twin telling me to stop and wait. Don't worry though, lots of time left for me to get things posted before the night ends and you kill me.

It's actually genuinely painful knowing that this post, which is missing the point soooooooo hard, isn't a wolf being disingenuous, but a townie trying his best. I know Aventine is better than this, but this is the exact kind of tunneling I was talking about, and that he couldn't see it and just dug so deep he convinced me he was scum...it's unfortunate.

*shrug*
So kill me

Empty of content. Also, this and the following post are the part where I'm convinced that Aventine was gonna self-bane. Not self-baning after that exchange is a bad move.

Aventine Pretends to Look Townie: Part II
seriously guys, pretending this hard is tiring, I couldn't do any more yesterday. I also needed to check some stuff with my scum-buddies in QT. You know how it is. Oh, and I lied about the unique views stuff, you can avoid incrementing the view-count if you know the super-secret handshake.
gac3

Spoiler: spoilered for length

Show

So gac has an rng vote, an OMGUS vote, and a vote for Unavenger following other player's questioning of Unavenger posting without voting. He unvotes Unavenger when he realizes Unavenger is finally voting. Then picks up on pushing Unavenger again after I do.

Until he votes for Lord Athos, he's only following other people's suspicions and OMGUSing. There doesn't seem to be any real reason for voting for Athos other than that I dropped off the wagon. And he’s quite intent on pushing the theory that Athos and I are connected. Right up until AV disputes it. Then he quickly drops it. (But keeps the vote on Athos)

My take: does not want to be controversial or contribute; prioritizing avoiding those over scum-hunting.

JeenLeen

Spoiler: spoilered for length

Show

While this does feel like trying to project an impression of solve-iness without really doing much solving, I'm not sure a wolf would actually do this. Having an idea beforehand of how to handle the cops situation is probably in town's interest. Even if we end up changing our minds, just having an idea of what sort of ways we could approach it could be the difference between a reasonably smooth job handling it and confused floundering.

Overall good. I am possibly a bit suspicious of coming out and justifying staying off the Athos-JWL competing wagons. It's not inconsistent with possible townie thinking, but it does feel like it could have some undertones of trying to preemptively justify not being on either wagon, in the event she gets accused of trying to avoid committing. The eventual switch to Lord Athos, of course, could become quite meaningful later.

The unique views stuff is off topic (or topic-tangential, really) but also at night. So that's null.

JoyWonderLove is definitely looking pretty fly-under-the-radar-y. The last second switch by JeenLeen and AV is interesting.


Logan1996. I did a thread search for his posts. There was literally one. That’s not flying under the radar. That’s building a time machine and going back before the invention of radar. He votes for JWL, which is potentially meaningful.


rogue_alchemist

Spoiler: spoilered for length

Show

I already covered this. It’s also hedge-y. Feels generally ungood.



Too concerned with looking scummy. Does not appear to have any interest in scum-hunting.

But AV’s response is the part that is really troubling. If you think someone’s weirdness is due to inexperience or such, that can be noted in analysis. But AV is too quick here to jump in and defend rogue for him.

Snowblaze. I’m in a similar place as with Apogee. Ok, but nothing that couldn’t be done as scum. The late switch off of Lord Athos is potentially telling. If JWL is scum, then that would be a risk for scum-Snowblaze (though mitigated somewhat by how little time was left in the day). If JWL is town, I could potentially see a scum-Snowblaze being less happy about ending up on the townie-killing wagon.

Unavenger

Spoiler: spoilered for length

Show

The stuff following feels like feigned emotion. But it could be genuine, so I don’t have the strongest read here.

Book Wombat is another one-post-wonder. This one goes the other way and votes for Lord Athos.

gac3 read is a fair point, and I'll look deeper when I do that ISO.

JeenLeen read is also on point. Pushing town to think about how to handle the cops is a townie move, and I'm glad Aventine was looking at somebody objectively.

JWL is low-activity, but my very limited private conversations and what's been posted publicly are giving me the impression that it's more just cuz JWL is holding back from online activity in general. Which, good for them, but doesn't help town much, and is easy scum-cover to lie about.

Logan is either inactive as usual, or flying under the radar for some reason.

RA read seems to be weakly based on suspicion against the actual player and more solidly rests on suspicion over how I personally reacted to it. Obviously, incorrect.

Snowblaze...Aventine doesn't do a full run-down, and I haven't yet either (nor do I have any particular impression of Snowblaze from reading through the thread), so idk how accurate this read is, but I'll make a note for myself to keep it in mind when I eventually get to that ISO.

Unavenger read is wrong, IMO, but I'll detail why in that ISO.

And...Book Wombat. Put a pin in that. Oh wait, that's the last Aventine post, let's bring back all those pins.

This feels too strong of a reaction. Especially for not even having any votes.

---

I like Lord Athos being calm. I'm gonna jump to Book Wombat.

This is 20 hours into D1.

rogue_alchemist.

(I don't like switching off Wombat without having heard from him. So be warned, Wombat, that I'm gonna tunnel-vision you hard tomorrow if I don't hear from you before end-of-day)

This is 43 hours into D1. I'm no a fan of how Aventine's vote on Book Wombat went ignored for 23 hours until it was changed for unrelated reasons.

That was well before my vote. I wanted a response to being voted for.

The following people are trying to fly under the radar:

• bc56
• Bunny
• Caoimhin

24 hours later, and Aventine (w/r/t Book Wombat) has gone from "don't think I won't tunnel you so hard" "accidentally leaves them out of an alphabetical ISO list when they'd easily slot into the list of inactives".

Book Wombat is another one-post-wonder. This one goes the other way and votes for Lord Athos.

...so, this list was alphabetical, except for Book Wombat who got tacked on at the end. What I'm thinking is, Book Wombat didn't contact Aventine at some point during the 23 hours before he switched to voting RA. But sometime in the next 24 hours, BW contacted Aventine with a claim of some kind that convinced Aventine to back off. This ends with Aventine subconsciously leaving Book Wombat off the list of alphabetical inactives where they should appear.

I don't know for sure what it says about Book Wombat, but I have a suspicion they're more active than they publicly appear. I'll be keeping that in mind when I ISO them, but since there's not many public posts to ISO, it's something we'll have to keep in mind going forward through the day.

Coming out of the Aventine ISO, I've got a bunch of notes to keep in mind when doing other ISOs, which is nice.

Spoiler: bc56 ISO

Show

I had IRL reasons for getting too behind there to catch up.
I will be more active this game.

The dice gods command me to vote for JoyWonderLove

"I'm gonna be more active this game."

Publicly presenting as more active, but not following through. Wolf lean.

Hmm

I'm honestly not so sure about the JWL or Athos wagons anymore. However, Rogue_Alchemist reads as town to me, so I'm disinclined to move there.

Anyone have a compelling argument either way? If I don't hear anything, my vote will probably stay as is.

It's been awhile since I saw a post this empty of content. "I'm not sure about any of the lead wagons, so I'll just change nothing" wow hot take there. Practically the definition of trying to look towny while contributing nothing. Wolf lean.

Well, I guess I was right in feeling uneasy about the Athos wagon.



To be fair, Mime sounds like a neutral or monster role. I would not have expected him to be town. Mimes are creepy.

Null, I think. I could see a wolf or townie posting this w/r/t to the flip. I might be biased a bit because he's agreeing with me, but eh.

I can explain my logic.
Rogue said something that sounded very much like town to me. I'm not going to go digging for the exact quote, but it amounted to "No matter what I do, I'm going to be associated with wolves." While this is true if he is a wolf, it feels like something a wolf wouldn't say, because it immediately brings to mind the possibility that the speaker is a wolf.
As for the question of why I didn't move, just because I'm uneasy about the wagon didn't mean I saw a better option. And we all know how people who change their votes at the last second are seen.

For now, I'm going to hold off on voting until I see how the wagons develop.

It's NAGL that of bc56's four posts, two of them are him immediately popping in to defend himself from a vote. Weak wolf lean.

bc56: -5/Null
Nothing looks good, most stuff looks bad. But then, there's barely anything to even analyze. If bc56 had been super-active in the game he flipped town, I'd write him off as a newb wolf without a second thought. For now, I just wanna see more effort. A lot more, as was claimed would be the case.

Spoiler: Book Wombat ISO

Show

Cute is justice, wombats shall never be monsters. Vote for Lord Athos

Early D1 OMGUS vote. Null.

Book Wombat: +0/Null
...that's it. That's all there is so far, publicly at least. I'd say autolynch bait, but given the Aventine's weirdness w/r/t BW, I'm really thinking they're more active than this indicates (which, admittedly, isn't exactly a high bar to clear). Need more content from this player, publicly and privately.

Spoiler: Bunny of Faith ISO

Show

Well, the D16 I rolled says to vote for JeenLeen.

D1 randvote. Null.

16 people. I've not played werewolf/mafia all that much and not for a while, but with there's probably a decent chance for something to be in if there aren't any people knocking about without powers. Though some of the example roles provided didn't look super standard, so who knows? :P

Claims to be experienced but rusty. Might be genuine towny warning that she's shaking off rust, might be wolf covering for bad plays. Null.

Just to clarify, if we're changing our vote are we supposed to edit the initial post with the first vote in with it struck through, or sort things out in a new post? Not sure to what degree editting posts is allowed for this!

Null. Although too many posts "just asking questions about basic game mechanics" might be a wolf trying to look more active than they really are.

Got it! Switching my vote over to Logan1996 then, as they're the only person to not have posted that also doesn't have a vote against them yet.

Null. NAI.

He did post, just didn't say anything exciting beyond tossing out a vote early on.

Could be legit confusion, could be defending RA for some reason. Null.

From the recruitment thread:

Null. Just a rule clarification.

Though unless somebody votes in the next few minutes then JWL dies regardless, since they hit it first?

--Edit--

They could even save themselves at this point by voting for rogue_alchemist.

Doesn't have strong feelings about any of the wagons, at least not enough to change their vote to break the tie. Could be they're a wolf fine with any of the wagons dying cuz they're all town, could be a wolf not wanting to tip their hand by defending a scumbuddy so obviously. Null.

I was going off of Snowblaze's tally here:


Where if Vecna and Snowblaze swapped to you, it would have looked like
Lord Athos 4 (, Book Wombat, JoyWonderLove, gac3, JeenLeen)
JoyWonderLove 4 (bc56, CaoimhinTheCape, Logan1996, , Apogee1)
Rogue_alchemist 4 (JeenLeen, Aventine, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna)

with JWL able to switch to you and save themselves. However, as you may be able to see in that Snowblaze recorded JeenLeen twice, thus my confusion. Sorry!

Null. NAI.

It's the (first night) final countdown, do do doo doo...

Null. Empty of content.

Elenna also has a roleblock if her claim of Playful Spirit is accurate, so you can make the (potentially incorrect) assumption that there's at least two going about. Though one's only single use.

Null. Rule clarification.

I'll call myself out here on being one of the people who knew about this from Elenna, but I also spoke to AV about it as well.

My lack of commentary is mostly due to not being garbage at reading people, and my gut instincts feel like they're the opposite of reliable.


--Edit--

I'll say that Elenna seems like a very odd choice to roleblock though, as I see it? The general thread consensus seems to be that they are who they say they are, in which case roleblocking them seems fairly pointless unless they're intentionally wanting to delay their exit?

Wolf lean. Yeah it's possible your reads are garbage. It's possible your reads are on point. Most likely they're in-between. But even the worst reader should still share their reads because it helps us see your thought process, analyze how you're coming to conclusions and assigning votes. There's no reason not to share. Well, no reason if you're a townie. I could see a rusty townie posting like this, and if that's all this is, I'm glad to do my part in helping you shake off the rust.

I might be missing someone, but I think that only JeenLeen and Elenna specifically called being roleblocked? Since AV asked Val and was informed they'd specifically have been told if they were roleblocked or not, which I assume they weren't. That doesn't seem super unreasonable to me, if there's a roleblocker on either side?

Weak town lean for calling Apogee out on some of their weirdness.

Bunny of Faith: -1
High quantity, low quality. There's tons being said but nothing to analyze or talk about. Not flying under the radar in the same sense as bc56, but I can definitely see what Aventine was saying about this slot: this is exactly the kind of behavior I could see coming from a rusty wolf who's trying to play safe. Post your reads - even if they're bad, it can still help town get a feel for you, see if your thoughts are legit or if you sound like you're making up stuff that sounds legit.

Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO

Show

AvatarVecna because random vote.




When does the Day end? By my math it would be 11:45 AM GMT on the 4th, but I don't necessarily trust my math skills.

---

bc56 1 (AvatarVecna)
Lord Athos 2 (Apogee1, Snowblaze)
JeenLeen 1 (Bunny of Faith)
Aventine 1 (gac3)
Apogee1 1 (Elenna)
JoyWonderLove 1 (bc56)
gac3 1 (Aventine)
Book Wombat 1 (Lord Athos)
Elenna 1 (Rogue_alchemist)
AvatarVecna 1 (CaoimhinTheCape)


Not Voting: Unavenger, Book Wombat, JeenLeen, JoyWonderLove, Logan1996

Null. RNG vote and a vote-list. Latter could be "trying to look more helpful than they are", but this is their first post and it's pretty early so I'll give some slack on this for now.

Yeah, crossing out votes is at least recommended, editing for grammar makes sense, don't change what you said. I've personally gone back to edit a post for clarity so I did a strike through on the point I wanted to clarify and made clear what I added. I think that was fine?





Just keep in mind that a lot of the recent games gave Wolves a once per game guaranteed kill - even if we have a doc they may not be able to stop the kill.

Null. Rule/game clarifications.

Gonna move my vote off of AV for now and throw it on one of the people who hasn't posted yet: JoyWonderLove

---

bc56 1 (AvatarVecna)
Lord Athos 2 (Apogee1, Snowblaze)
Logan1996 1 (Bunny of Faith)
Aventine 1 (gac3)
Apogee1 1 (Elenna)
JoyWonderLove 2 (bc56, CaoimhinTheCape)
gac3 2 (Aventine, JeenLeen)
Book Wombat 1 (Lord Athos)
Elenna 1 (Rogue_alchemist)


Not Voting: Unavenger, Book Wombat, JoyWonderLove, Logan1996

Switches to JWL, posts another vote-list. Weak wolf lean for the aforementioned "looking more useful than they are".

Fixed.




Also, nothing really more to add. It is just day one so even though my vote was for JWL not being around yet, not sure I have a better place to put it.

"Sorry for not posting more content to actually engage with"
-person still not posting engage-able content

Weak wolf lean.

I don't fully trust rogue_alchemist, but I have reason to suspend my suspicion, at least on a temporary basis.
I'm still not sure what to make of the JWL vs Lord Athos set, but it looks like some info is there for harvesting after the Day ends. So I'll set the tie again via a vote on Lord Athos.

Also, I find it odd that AV left my vote on rogue_alchemist out of her post. AvatarVecna: was that a typo, intentional, or just tangential to the purpose of your post?

Weak town lean for calling me out on a mistake that looked potentially intentionally misleading.

Well, Aventine's death could point to any number of people - AV, rogue_alchemist, and gac are the ones that were probably called out most but the wolves could assume we would follow that train of thought so...

At least to start, I'll throw a vote on Book Wombat to hopefully see where their head is at. Through the grapevine there may be one or two people caught in lies, so we'll see what comes of that.

---

Also, people should have gotten feedback from any roles that take actions in the night. Would it help to publicly say if anyone knows they were roleblocked? I assume there would be at least one in the game and my guess is that they're with the wolves. Not exactly sure what that would tell us, but it's possibly more info for the town.

Weak town lean for providing some actual thoughts to engage with, and for calling for engagement from others. And I can't say I disagree with the train of thought, exactly.

Alright, a few pieces to this post then:



I don't mind saying that I'm the other person Elenna mentioned it to. AV gave me a little info on the idea but I did not know the other person involved and I didn't know which vortex would be used (Elenna's role is supposed to have two).

---

Aventine's Kill

Spoiler

Show

Looking back at the discussion between Ave and AV, plus the fact that AV made it public knowledge they had a kill, plus the passive benefit of the Doc - it would make sense for Aventine to protect themselves (assuming they could). All that leaves is a strongkill from the wolves that would get through or Ave couldn't protect themselves.


So how does Ave end up dead? Would wolves burn their unblockable kill on Ave Night 1 just on the basis of them looking town? Or would they have known Ave's role and knew to use their unblockable kill?


It's possible Ave had someone else they wanted to protect or was unable to protect themselves. We won't know that till the game is over.


tl;dr - I'm worried the wolves knew Ave was the doc ahead of time.

---

Day 1 Wagons

Spoiler

Show

Ehhh. Day 1 is essentially random and I can't say I favored any particular horse in the race. I wish any of the people involved had claimed earlier so we could take those into consideration. For the most part it was between JoyWonderLove and Athos, both of which had 4 votes by the end of the second page.

gac, Jeen, and AV may look a little odd for jumping on at the end of the day, though according to AV their reason was:




JoyWonderLove is overall a null read for me, their posts Day 1 haven't pushed me to feel either way about them.


rogue_alchemist was very resistant to changing votes for one reason or another and was looking to collude to get a towncore going. According to Jeen, this was not able to be tested. Can't put him in either category but I wish any sort of proof there had played out.


@AvatarVecna Is there anything you'd like to share with the class about the intriguing results?

---

Wolf Leans / People I'm Worried About

Spoiler

Show

Avatar Vecna: Hey buddy! You're on this list partially for claiming to have so much information and it obviously not going well last night, but it seemed to be a perfect storm against proving you innocent:

- You claim to have shot at Aventine. This could have been proven if the doc was still alive and we got the additional info the Doc role provides.
- There was only one kill so we're left to guess if something stopped the wolves shot and it was only you, or if Ave saved themselves and the wolves did a strong kill.
- We now have no way of proving you, as this was your one shot for the whole game. So I don't see how we can be sure of your role. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Basically I'm worried you're a wolf with way too much information, you've already claimed, and are just manipulating everything by people assuming you're town.



Elenna: Yes this is a claimed neutral role that no one has counterclaimed. But I don't like that she was blocked. She's honestly a pretty good target to roleblock, if you want to keep her in the game. At this point, Elenna has offered to help out whichever side is the most fun and after this roleblock asking for a pass until Night 5 of the game. Any scries against Elenna will come up as Monster rather than Human (per the claim) so even if Elenna is checked it won't give us anything new.

She wouldn't have been up here if she hadn't been roleblocked and is now asking for a pass to Night 5/Day 6. Wolves (whether Elenna is one or not) have a reason for keeping her around - she's a free agent and she will now be in the game longer in case she decides to work with them.




[REDACTED]: Through the grapevine I heard that someone was supposedly able to prove their power yesterday and didn't. That's a big red flag for me but as I'm not privy to all of the information and they could end up being town I don't want to get them in too much trouble yet.



Book Wombat, Logan, bc, Bunny: not a wolf lean so much as I want to see more before I decide. Until then, not being around is unhelpful to town. bc and Bunny did post today but I would like to see more of an opinion or vote.

---

Town Leans / People I'm Comfortable With

Spoiler

Show

Lord Athos and Aventine: RIP

Possibly Other People: I honestly don't know how much I want to telegraph the people I'm super comfortable with, given we just lost our doctor. I'm gonna stay kinda quiet on this for now, though I do have a couple town leans.

---

You know what? I'll start a wagon on AvatarVecna and see where it goes. Sure, it's a little bit of OMGUS but for now AV has a lot of power and I'm worried that others have given too much away to AV.

Curious to see what other people think on AV's claimed knowledge. Also interested in Rogue and Joy giving their reads, since they were the other wagons from Day 1.


Vote Count
JoyWonderLove 1 (Apogee1)
AvatarVecna 2 (JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape)
bc56 1 (Snowblaze)
CaoimhinTheCape 1 (AvatarVecna)


Posted but didn't vote: Unavenger, bc56, Elenna, Bunny of Faith

No posts: Rogue_alchemist, Book Wombat, gac3, JoyWonderLove, Logan1996

Strong town lean. I'm a sucker for a reads list, even when it ends with them voting for me. The thoughts on the D1 lynch/N1 kill are also very much appreciated. It seems that the argument for voting me amounts to...of all the players that could be wolves, me being a wolf would be the worst news for town, and they need to resolve my slot ASAP. I can respect that (and I'll take the compliment, just like Aventine did). I don't have anything to share about the results of my vote manipulation test, at least not publicly. I've told somebody in private, in case I die today/tonight, so they can pursue the case or not later as they desire.

CaoimhinTheCape: +3
D1 wasn't looking good, but Cape is coming out strong on D2. I'm mostly just happy to have another player who's actually putting in effort and putting out thoughts that can be checked later.

Spoiler: Elenna

Show

The great lord RNGesus commands me to vote for Apogee1

Null. Randvote.

So I'm not sure if this is the best way to play this role, but it seems like the more fun way. Have a claim!

I'm the Playful Spirit, a neutral monster.
I have several one-time powers, and my win condition is to either survive to the end of the game or use all my powers, whichever comes first.

The powers are:

• Roleblock
• Vortex (pick two players, they will target each other)
• Another vortex (pick two players, the first will target the second)
• Bane

Anyone want some help?

Strong wolf lean. I don't particularly think it's a fake-claim, but if it is, it's almost certainly a wolf fake-claiming. And I'm really nervous about letting Elenna just go unchallenged until D5. Sorry, D6 now? Anyway, that's why it's weighted heavier than it probably deserves.

Cleared

Null.

To answer a couple questions that several people have asked:

• If I use all my powers, I can choose whether or not to leave the game (as JeenLeen has said), but I lose if I die after using all my powers. So there isn't really a ton of reason for me to stay in. We'll see what the game looks like by D5 (assuming I survive that long), maybe I'll decide to support one side or the other for fun?
• I want to support whichever side can end the game fastest, because having a quick game makes me more likely to win, but exactly which side that is will depend on what happens in the game. Right now it's town, because they have less people they need to kill, but that might change later. I also don't have much idea right now of who is on which side, anyways. So right now I'm mostly just picking what to do based on what seems the most interesting/fun

Part of me wants this slot resolved ASAP. Part of me wants to just trust the claim and focus powers/lynches elsewhere, staving off every inch of ground between us and LYLO. This post does absolutely nothing to make me feel better about Elenna. Null.

IIRC a lot of the chats AV created in HP WW were 1-2 views higher than expected even assuming everyone but me who had access was looking at them with two devices. (I know I only looked at them on my PC).



I think a real spirit would be better off counter-claiming now rather than waiting until they're pressured for a claim (which would almost certainly happen at some point given that this is an all-power-role game). Not that it matters, since I'm telling the truth.

Null. Clarifications.

Fascinating. I was also roleblocked last night. Obviously I didn't roleblock myself, and I also didn't roleblock JeenLeen.

For the sake of transparency: I tried to redirect bc56 to target AV last night, at AV's suggestion, mostly for the amusement factor of seeing how many people we could get to target AV in one night. bc56 was picked pretty much at random out of the semi-active players who hadn't contacted me.

I told two people that I was taking a suggestion made by AV, but not exactly what that suggestion was. I can identify them if people want to know, I guess, but I'm not really sure if that makes them more likely to be wolves or not.
Or maybe the roleblocking has nothing to do with those people and someone just doesn't want to play

Weak town lean. I appreciate the transparency at least.

Yeah, I wondered if maybe someone was worried about me baning/roleblocking someone and wanted to be certain it wouldn't happen? IDEK.
Either that, or one of the people I talked to is or thinks they are on the opposite side as AV and wanted to disrupt their plans?

Weak town lean. Explaining her thought process, even just a little bit, is nice.

Elenna: -1
Neutral claimant, only reason to doubt the claim is because of just how dangerous her being a fake-claiming wolf would be.

[gac3]

Huh... That's a weird selection of people. Where is everyone else?

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: gac3 ISO

Show

I'm RNGing this time because people find that less suspicious than me making up logic. "That's dumb logic Gac3, you must be a wolf." Not this time. Aventine

Also, for a game with no confirmed roles, we just got two potentially confirmed roles in the OP

Null. Randvote.

That's my point. My first random vote when only two people had voted? There is no reasoning there. My next vote however shall have plenty to analyze, I'm sure.



Ah. To be fair, it's been so long since I signed up that I don't remember the original thread.


Edit:... Those were supposed to be in the other order.

Wolf lean. Was forever ago when it happened, but Logic demonstrated (and post-game, commented on) how when you see a post that has a line abruptly cut off, or things are answered in weird order, it's potentially a sign of a wolf, because a wolf is a lot more likely to go back and revise things they said to fit whatever narrative they're pushing (as opposed to townies, who generally just put it out there and aren't quite as paranoid about how they present as wolves are).

Actually... Now that snow mentions it... The quotes I was referencing were:





Both of which got major suspicion thrown at me. The joke was that I wouldn't do it this time. But I only just now realize that in both instances, the person I was suspecting was a Wolf. I remembered snowblaze was but didn't realize until now that Rogue Alchemist also was.

Weak town lean, because this is a decent point about an emerging pattern, even if this game is an exception to the "rule".

I thought really long and hard about how this would be relevant to anything. I settled on, it meaning that there is probably a watcher/tracker power. And it would be relevant if that tracker targetted the killer or the watcher targetted the killers prey. Alternatively we could have a baner who dies if they successfully stop a kill. So that's all probably worth noting and watching for.

Null. Interesting thoughts, but nothing to really engage with. Well actually...idk what the significance is of this, but if you click through to actually view this post where it occurred in-thread, gac3 put a winking smiley in the part that's like "Re: [thread title]". I'm not sure how to read that, though, and most of gac's posts don't have something like that.

I guess that's possible. But I don't think I've seen that before. So it didn't cross my mind.

Null.

Well let's see...

FOS for Jeen. For starting a wagon on someone after saying "I like the reasoning but dislike it on principle." Then they acted as though I should be lynched for it and as if the people who acted suspicious were wolves. The only person suspicious of what I've said so far that I expect might be a wolf based solely on that is Jeen. I also would expect them to know the difference between a lover and a mason. But point is, many people use RNG. Jeen voted me because he liked my reason for using RNG but not RNG in general. Then basically said it is suspicious of him for doing so once I flip town.

All that said unavenger posting and not voting seems more suspicious.

Edit:
Well looks like they posted while I was rantinn about JeenLeen

Edit 2:
No. I just somehow read their post as Aventines. Either way sticking with Jeen.

Weak wolf lean. This is that "stream of consciousness" posting you tend to see from townies, but boy do I disagree with the stuff being said here. RNG voting is whatever. RNG voting explicitly because you're tired of your reasons for voting people getting over-analyzed is weird. The towniness and wolfiness balance out.

So I have placed three votes now. Only one is OMGUS as far as I can tell? What were you referring to besides Jeen?

Weak town lean for calling out a mistake and pushing for a deeper explanation.

I also noticed that last part. Seconded.



And Jeen was more the logic off it baffled me. They also acted like their vote made it likely I would get lynched. Then implied that me being town would mean that the people suspicious of me would be likely wolves. So he should be included in that.



Im with you bud. That vote chart conveniently placed not far above you is way too much effort to check and see if what you were about to say makes no sense.

Weak town lean. This explains the thoughts behind suspecting JeenLeen much better.

If that's the case, shouldn't you move your vote to the only person not to have shown up?

Weak town lean for calling me out on this inconsistency, even though it was just a mistake on my part.

Honestly idk. I'd be more suspicious if it was a "every time Lord Athos gets a vote, the counter wagon suddenly increases."

Weak town lean for engaging with Apogee on this point. I'm glad somebody did and got the thread thinking about this stuff.

Despite comments about being suspicious, you know you aren't even one of the wagons right?

Null. It's a good point, but it's casting shade on a player I'm pretty sure is town, and should look super-towny to people who've been in previous games with them. gac3 should know better.

Fair enough.

Null.

I also thought so. Maybe our paranoia is getting to them.

Also what do you mean? Has Athos posted much since the wagons got this high? Are they being calm?

Weak wolf lean. This is the second post latching onto Aventine's take on Unavenger, and it's not a good take. Possibly pocketing, but might be legit.

What you described for my theory is a very bad plan. I assume that if you were a wolf, you would be a smart wolf. Looking through, somehow I missed snowblaze's vote so I thought you were the one to make Athos a wagon. Also you have no reason for voting Athos. You then just said that he was calm and moved off. But by your very own logic about why you shouldn't be worried, also shows that Lord Athos shouldn't have been worried and could easily afford to be calm. So your pressure vote, if that's what it was, accomplished nothing. You didn't wait to see how he reacted to pressure.


Why would I be very interested in voting someone specific? Unless you think me and Joy might be scum buddies.

Null. This explanation makes sense on paper, but something feels off. Unfortunately while Aventine felt weird about gac3's posts, he didn't address them individually, just as a group. I'd like some second thoughts about this post.

Well then. Accusations retracted.

Well outside of the fact I still don't follow your logic. But knowing you aren't a wolf trying to protect a wolf kills that suspicion.

Weak wolf lean. Backs off pushing Aventine when I push back on that angle, even though he explicitly still doesn't think it makes sense.

AV used the above quote but I'm having trouble finding it in the original. Anyone know?

Null.

See... Maybe I should play more non power role games. Without flips and powers, I really feel like I don't know how to read people.

Null. Closest this gets to a weak town lean is that gac is nightposting, but it's nothing harmful.

I wouldn't get too paranoid about unique views. Use it as evidence because it's more than nothing. But it isn't necessarily definitive proof. I probably should check them more but my very first game we had an incident and when I checked Unique views my chat with the DM had like 10 unique views even though we both used a single device and it being a role QT, it definitely wasn't shared. Unavenger and AV can probably back me up since they were involved in that discovery but not sure if they remember.

So in closing, I have no idea how it works. If it looks ridiculous, it very well might be. But if it's only off by a few... I would be more suspicious

Weak town lean. Discussing QT mechanics that might catch wolves or might dissuade needless paranoia is useful to town, at least a little bit.

Yes it was. You messaged me at one point: something along the lines of "I think blah blah blah is a wolf because of unique views!" And after I had unique views explained to me, I checked my thread with unavenger and realized it had like 10 unique views. I have since used that as evidence that the unique views are unreliable.... After somebody else's comment though, I realized I might be able to explain it... It looks like I didn't create an account until a bit into the game... So... Maybe trust the unique views and I've been deceiving myself

Null.

That sounds convincing enough for me. JoyWonderLove

Will add a more thorough response to things later but wanted to comment on some things.

Aventine said null read on Jeenleen's discussion about unique views because it was off topic. I disagree. A wolf shouldn't mention unique views publically. They definitely shouldn't get it publically explained how they work. First, either they are genuinely curious and the wolves probably could explain it, or they know the answers and should know that unique views are a big tip off that someone is sharing a QT with their wolf buddies. The whole discussion should likely be a strong town lean. It is for me at least.

I was also grouped with Jeen and AV for moving votes around near the end of day? That's not true. I wasn't part of whatever that was and my votes should be able to prove that. Though I would love to know what the results were.

Snowblaze, be careful with the buffer post thing. I got a disciplinary warning for that during HP. Apparently the problem is stating it is a buffer post, not doing one. Stating you are making a buffer post apparently falls under spam. Just so you know.

Weak town lean, although that changes if you don't follow through on commenting more thoroughly later. Aventine grouped you with JeenLeen and I because he had general suspicions on you from the rest of your posts, and he let it color his perceptions of your actions to the point that he was rewriting the voting history in his head and assuming he was right. Post-game, it'll be very obvious just how much Aventine was assuming was true and was wrong about because he took some weak leans and blew them up into scumlocks in his head, even as he was actively claiming that wasn't the case.

gac3: +3
More good than bad, but the bad stuff really rubs me wrong. Still, active player (which is more than most can say), and has promised some real analysis to sink my teeth into later. So I'm more than fine holding off here until later.

Spoiler: JeenLeen ISO

Show

Let's start off with a gambit of giving some strategic advice.



The recruitment post had a Lovers-type duo of cops, but their power changed if their partner died.
One changed from a baner to a vigilante. The other joined the Evil. I'm not one of this duo, but I have some advice for them if they truly exists.

If the Doubting Cop is close to getting lynched, the Doubting Cop should claim their role and reveal the Trusting Cop, who I hope would verify.* I think the ideal "next move" would be for the Town to shift their votes to lynch the Trusting Cop.**
If the Trusting Cop is truly the Trusting Cop, we have a confirmed vigilante. Yeah, wolves might NK him, but we could network at least for that night to coordinate a good target.
If the Trusting Cop was not the Trusting Cop (e.g., the claimant was lying), we lynch the claimant next as a confirmed wolf.

If the Trusting Cop is close to getting lynched, whether or not it's worth revealing it and avoiding the lynch probably depends on a number of factors. Would networking get better if the Doubting Cop is confirmed Town? Is a vigilante better than a baner at the moment? Etc. But probably better to let the Trusting Cop die if he's up for lynch, lest he fall to Evil later.

*Not sure if the Trusting Cop would verify, though. If the goal is truly to win, in the sense of "Town wins is Town wins" and "Wolves win if wolves win", then the Trusting Cop's best chance of winning is survival if he thinks the wolves will win OR getting lynched if he thinks the Town will win. So they may or may not verify.
**lynching the Trusting Cop claim prevents a number of bad things: the wolves NKing the Doubting and the Trusting switching sides, as well as two desperate wolves making a gambit of claiming Lovers and being able to hide

----


And, since I'm posting something, better include a vote. I like gac3's reasoning, but I dislike people voting based on RNG. So, to deter someone else from getting in the practice: I'll start another 2-vote wagon on someone via gac3.
And if gac flips town, then suspicion on those who put suspicion on him.

Town lean for some serious discussion of the cops who can turn from asset to liability. Nothing here feels off, either, which helps.

What I meant was I'm voting for you to deter you from joining the D1 RNG users. But I wanted to admit that the reasons you gave for using RNG made sense (assuming 'twas true and not a wolfish lie).

About suspicions, what I meant was it's suspicious for those who say they suspect you for using RNG but aren't willing to put a vote behind it. Seems like a wolf wanting to put heat on a townie, but not vote for them directly lest it draw suspicion on them when you die. Thus I meant it's suspicious for those who just do FOS on you, if you flip town. Though I get how it's also suspicious for anyone who voted for you, which would include me.
But I hope the nuance I'm going for is clear now.



Agreeing with gac on this.
That's what I misread apogee1 as saying was happening at first, so I went back through things to verify. I definitely agree there might be something going on, but I don't know how to read it if there is.

Null. Walking back things a little bit when pushed doesn't strike me as good, but I like the explanation, it makes sense to me. Helps that I agree, that gac is post.

I was going to QuickTopic with you, but since your inbox is full: feel free to use me for Another vortex, with you choosing who I target. My power isn't a bane, void, or kill, and I'd be picking my target almost randomly tonight anyhow. So, I don't really care who I target.
Also, I'll check with Valmark if I'd get feedback that let'd me confirm who I targeted. Could help via verifying you are the spirit.

I'd be wary if you wound up redirecting a kill or more serious power.

Weak town lean. This feels like something a townie would offer, and this feels like something a townie would worry about. The only reason this lean isn't stronger is because it could've still been private but is out on display. Granted, Elenna's inbox was definitely full, but it still feels weird to wanna discuss it private, and then discuss it publicly anyway.

@Elenna: I will know who I target, so if you redirect me, I can confirm who I got redirected to.

On blackmailing Elenna: I think the wolves would be hard-pressed to blackmail her. She just has to survive 4 rounds, right? And although they could kill her, it'd be wasting a kill that'd otherwise go to Town. She seems a pretty safe neutral position.

- - - Updated - - -



To add (what I think is the context for this): I'm DM in a PbP where JWL is a player.
Thanks, JWL, for the compliment. But don't drag me down with you, wagon-leader

Weak wolf lean. I'm biased against Elenna at this point, and I'm sorry if I unfairly judge anybody for defending her. But it makes me seriously uncomfortable that we're just assuming she's telling the truth, even if she almost certainly is.

I've been thinking a bit about how much to believe Elenna, including in light of a QuickTopic with her.

This Role is an awesome cover for a wolf. She's telling me that she can leave after fulfilling her win condition, but isn't required to. Also, when I asked her to redirect me, she said she's consider it but has other offers and is trying to decide what to do.
All of that sounds VERY believable. None of that weighs her as a wolf.

On the other hand, it's good cover for a wolf. She could say she just decided to stay in the game (even to help Town). She could wait until enough people QT her to choose somebody whose power can emulate; like, I don't buy a wolf being able to do all 4 powers, but I can buy one or two of them being emulatable by the wolves, and thus the wolves being able to keep up the disguise.
It's also a good way for the wolves to gain intel. I could see them doing that as a gambit (risking 1 wolf) to gain a lot of potential intel from the Town.

The only reason it's a really BAD cover story for a wolf is a real Spirit could counterclaim. The Spirit doesn't have much risk from counterclaiming, but neither do they have much reason to counterclaim.

TL;DR: while I see why some folk might have suspicions, I don't think there's a good reason to suspect Elenna.

- - - Updated - - -







It does look suspicious to see someone say RNG first then say it was gut.
rogue_alchemist could mean he has a gut reaction against Elenna now. It's not necessarily contradicting what he first said, but it does look odd, like something a wolf might say who forgot their cover story was RNG.

Anyway, guess just FOS on rogue_alchemist.
Changing my vote won't impact the lynch unless I change it to Lord Athos or JoyWonderLove, and I'm confused by the movement around their wagons, so I'm not inclined to change it currently.

Weak town lean, cuz I love having thoughts to engage with, and I don't disagree with anything here. I'll also add on that, if Elenna isn't the real spirit, the real spirit will know she's a wolf...and can just message her and get in contact. I don't think that's the case here, but it might be and is worth mentioning.

Good point. I had considered that, but wasn't able to think of a good phrasing for it.

However, it's a mixed bag. If she really is neutral, the Town would want her to stick around to keep the Last Day from coming; but if she sticks around, we'd probably lynch her as that's really suspicious.
And I guess it's not too bad for Town if we let a wolf survive for 4 nights.

So really it's not a great cover story, just a good (and temporary) one.

---

Also, as I think on it more, I'm going to go ahead and move my vote to rogue_alchemist based on the inconsistency Snowblaze pointed out. Nothing they say is really suspicious, but it's more than the nothing I had on gac3. Maybe we're get some good discussion out of it.

Strong wolf lean. "I guess it's not too bad for town if we let a wolf survive for 4 nights". I mean yeah also just the general issue I have with letting Elenna go unchallenged that long, but also wow dude, phrasing! If JeenLeen is wolf, this is the big scumslip.

I don't fully trust rogue_alchemist, but I have reason to suspend my suspicion, at least on a temporary basis.
I'm still not sure what to make of the JWL vs Lord Athos set, but it looks like some info is there for harvesting after the Day ends. So I'll set the tie again via a vote on Lord Athos.

Also, I find it odd that AV left my vote on rogue_alchemist out of her post. AvatarVecna: was that a typo, intentional, or just tangential to the purpose of your post?

Null. Anybody could've made this post. Calling me out on a small mistake isn't award-winning material. I might just still be reeling from the last post though.

I took this morning off work to go to church, and I'm catching up on work now. Hope to read through stuff and run some analysis.

AV, what led you to vote for Lord Athos last-minute?
(Sorry if you already said this, but I didn't see it in just skimming the posts thus far.)

Strong wolf lean for neglecting The Lord. Crusade time booooiiiiii

Wait, that's irrelevant. Weak town lean for calling me out.

Can anyone give me a good and thorough (and true ) description of how the Unique Views are handled in QuickTopic?
I've got a couple leads on a possible wolf or possible mason/lover, but whether they are hogwash or not depends on that little nuance.

...which, honestly, I feel bad even pursuing, since I hate the idea of that analysis being strong in the metagame here. As that might lead to folk using convoluted methods like the transcript-QTs that AV did last game. But, basically, I know the Unique Views are unreliable sometimes. But what can make the same person show up 2+ times as a unique view?
One lead has described the multiple views reasonably (though it could be a lie) by saying they use a VPN. I think I've caused it in prior games from viewing QTs both on my work and home computer.

Weak town lean. Builds on previous discussion of QT stuff, and I've already said why I view that as slightly townie.

Thanks for the answers.

I reckon my thoughts were hogwash, then. I had an idea about someone as probably being one the Cop duo or being a wolf based on it, but seems likely to be just their tech setup. I'd mention their name, but I'm getting a Town vibe from them, so I don't want my minor suspicion (now nullified) to make anyone else go against them.

Null.

Someone PMed me a nuance to the QuickTopic question. I'll respect their privacy by not mentioning who sent this.


Noting that the person I suspected of wolfish/copish activity showed the non-signed-in readers message, so that gives more legitimacy to that it's really just me, them, and Valmark reading it.
Thanks, REDACTED, for the info.

Weak town lean for sharing this, and for not outing their informant on it.

All in all, though, this banter back and forth is making Aventine look more Town to me. It seems risky for a wolf to draw this much attention and debate.
It doesn't impact my read on AV, since AV often tries to drive discussion by being hard to read and aggressive. And last time she got into an argument like this, it was her as Town against another Townie.



If your real life schedule permits, posting some analysis minutes before Night ends can be helpful, especially if you think you'll die. That way the wolves don't have time to process it to aim their NK, but it's also relayed to the Town in the event of your death.

Town lean for imploring Aventine for more timely analysis.

Someone roleblocked me last night, or did something of equivalent effect.

I hope to do more thought on it tonight when I have time, but I wanted to go on and share this so the people I'm talking with know what happened.
But that was very annoying and robbed me of significant intel for the Town. In effect, this means I can't verify rogue_alchemist's claim to me. I also missed out on a chance to figure out who killed Aventine.

- - - Updated - - -

...some more thought.

One: reread Aventine's power, and that is crazy powerful. It's a shame we don't know if he claimed to anyone, since if his power got leaked to the wolves it definitely would have made him a major target. I know AV had claims from several people, but Aventine seemed to really distrust her, so I doubt he told her anything strong.

Two: if AV and rogue_alchemist are scumbuddies, they could have worked together to know to block me. I've told AV basically everything I can, including how my power works. I don't think I told them what rogue_alchemist power-claimed to me, but I said enough that they could infer part of it and that I was testing it. She also knew my power was going to target Aventine and maybe find their killer.
rogue_alchemist didn't know my power, but knew it might help me catch a killer if I target who dies. And that I was to target Aventine.

I'll still keep rogue_alchemist's powerclaim private for now. He could be Town stuck with the bad luck of me being blocked when it was supposed to get a lot of intel in coordination with him. But it's suspicious. And I'll start voting on AvatarVecna just in case.

Weak town lean. I appreciate having the thoughts - I disagree with them, but I can see the thought process behind them.

If anyone knows who roleblocked me, I'd appreciate them telling me. Or stating it publicly alongside a vote.

After comparing some notes with others, I'm pretty sure it was neither Elenna nor the Doubting Cop. So it's probably a wolf voider. At least, if AV is telling me the truth--which I have some reason to doubt, so still keeping my vote on her for now.

Null.

Someone told me that JoyWonderLove roleblocked me last Night. Since I think I know who the Cop roleblocked, makes me think JWL is a wolf voider.

I agree with the risks about letting AV live, but I think we can let it slide one more night. She could be a solid Town worker, could be a grand wolf manipulator, but I'd rather get JWL out of the way.
Also, however JWL flips would give evidence for or against AV, and possibly incriminate the person who told me they roleblocked me.

Weak town lean. I agree that this looks pretty weird and should be investigated (even if that investigation ends up backfiring and gets me killed next lol).

Correct.
AV told me that the Cop roleblocked Elenna last night. I didn't want to state that openly, because I don't want to give Elenna a reason (even if a petty reason like spite) to side with the wolves. But now that I've been asked, no reason not to answer.

IF AV was honest, then the Cop blocked Elenna. My contact about JWL clarified that they know JWL used a roleblock and they only think it was targeting me. (I misunderstood at first.) But, if the Cop targeted Elenna, Elenna couldn't void anyone, then I'm the only person left and JWL the only voider left. And I doubt we have two Town voiders.

So lynch JWL. If they flip Town, go after AV and I'll rat out who told me JWL blocked me.

Null. I was honest. If their was dishonesty on this issue, it wasn't from me to you.

JeenLeen: +7
JeenLeen has high quantity and high quality posts. Pushes discussion, provides thoughts, so many very good posts in this ISO. But..."I guess it's not too bad for town if we let a wolf survive for 4 nights". NAGL, despite all of this other lovely stuff. Am I overreacting to this, people?

Spoiler: JoyWonderLove

Show

Fabric of Softner on Aventine, because he has a wizard avatar, and everyone likes comfy clothing.

Also, every single time we have a first round, I reply it's silly to vote because we'll always hurt town, and every single time I get told it's oh so chic and sensible. Do you really want me to post just so I can whine about that?

I appreciate the want to get me to participate, though. Nice to be thought of.

Been OOC spending more time offline and in the garden. Brings greater inner peace so far. Starting to understand Cal Newport and his idea that our generation might be overdoing social media.

Wolf lean, as always when I see this sentiment put forth. D1 isn't for voting wolves, D1 is providing what thoughts you can so people can go back and look at them later. Refusing to participate in that because "it only ever gets a townie killed" is missing the forest for the trees, and after enough games, it starts looking like that's on purpose even when it's not. Oh yeah, and appearing when their massive wagon finally gets into the lead doesn't inspire anything good.

Neat, well, this is new. Voting for Lord Athos as a defensive thing.



Hello and welcome to D1 voting. I've been saying it's silly for over three games now (yes, this is my fourth )

Weak wolf lean. Voting purely to defend yourself D1 is NAGL.

The irony of course being that you could easily be protecting your wolf friend Lord Athos, and only when there's an actual threat on him do you move your vote to me? Otherwise, why are you pushing so hard for votes against me?

Weak town lean, for actually making a useful point about the wagon stuff. It's not much, but it's something at least.

Did Evil Villain's Werewolf / Snowblaze's game shift the metagame? I don't remember neutrals claiming early before that, but I haven't been around long.

Null. And no, it's more specific to this role, I think. I know I saw somebody else say they were considering doing exactly this if they got that role.

Ignoring for a moment I find that funny and literally never heard the phrase before, you're not helping right now.



I haven't read the thread fully, but I thought the votes against me were due to not logging in? Like I said, I've been afk more by choice. I'm also starting to doubt I'll join AV's game because of this vote I need to take more time away from technology. Even if it's a day a month without a phone/laptop, etc.

It's like JeenLeen's story. It's fantastic. But I'm not sure I should join any more RPs after it.

Weak wolf lean. I'm so sorry, but covering for you when you're flying the radar isn't really my job.

"i only stole hundreds of billions of dollars because of the online roleplay angel game, your honour! I'm not the mastermind. It was jeen leen all along!!!"

Null.

JoyWonderLove: -3/Null
Mostly bad-looking posts, and not much good to balance it out either. Private chat with JWL hasn't been very involved or helpful either. Wolfy, but less actively so than some others. Primarily, one of the people I just want more posts from period, so we can better analyze them. But since we're unlikely to get info to resolve the slot, we should probably do it by voting instead.

Spoiler: Lord Athos ISO

Show

Another dead confirmed-townie, so we're mostly analyzing to see who they had serious thoughts about.

Book Wombat, since... wombats are some type of monster, right?

@Snowblaze: I plead guilty to some of that, and not guilty to others.

Randvote, doesn't indicate anything.

Weird that wagon on me. Any reason?

Doesn't indicate much of anything, beyond a lack of concern for the wagon. Probably should've been a sign...

Wait, don't shoot the Mime!

I already claimed to you privately, remember?

Almost literally a last-second claim, and I know he was online far before then. I wish he'd given literally anything to work with.

Less useful than analyzing Aventine's posts by far.

Spoiler: Logan1996 ISO

Show

Joywonderlove. I'm always kinda inactive. But this is weird for them right?

Null. A decent point, but one others were already observing. Doesn't really contribute beyond just literally not posting.

Logan1996: +0/Null
Basically nothing. AL bait at best, wolf flying far under the radar at worst. As with many people, I wanna see way more from them.

Spoiler: rogue_alchemist ISO

Show

RNG says Elenna. Though FOS at Gac for trying to break with his tradition .

Weak town lean for calling out gac's weird early post.

none of us will know what to conclude until people start flipping (or not) based on votes. Day 1 is chaotic, but becomes useful later on. I am not going to change my vote as I am happy with my gut, even though Elenna has claimed a role. I find her claim a little suspicious for her claimed powers, but not so suspicious that I want to go too much into it yet.

On another note we have about 21 hours remaining to finish voting. Make sure you land where you're happy!

Weak town lean for arguing in favor of D1 discussion (which I'm admittedly biased about), but then reframing the reasoning behind his vote to look like it actually had reasoning (as Snowblaze called them out on).

Per JeenLeen's comment I did mean that my gut is now happy with the RNG choice. But I will be messaging JeenLeen shortly about possible collusion to get a town core going.

Null. This explanation makes sense, but the reframing still bugs me.

Exactly, why would I want to vote in some way that could link me to scrum later? I have no information to act off of and it is RNG anyways, so let it be what it is. If there was actionable information, then I could change (such as if Elenna ended up being a wagon and I believed her claim, I could move off), but to randomly support a wagon that has no discernible reason to exist anyways, no thanks.

Weak wolf lean for arguing against getting their own posts analyzed later even though they acknowledged the usefulness of D1 discussion for the purpose of analysis. I think it's not as much a smoking gun as Aventine did, but then I was wrong about Aventine in general, so might be more here.

I do see his point better now, thank you. I am still learning all this PbP werewolf stuff. I get aspects of it and then other things slip my mind or go right over my head. It is like trying to solve a linked system of equations through iterative guess and check. You make slow progress and think you have it figured out only to have it blow up in your face and then have to start again.

But I have seen no good reasons to change my vote, so I am leaving it.

Null...on its own.

I was asleep when you posted this (are all you guys European? or at least non-American, cause you post when I am sleep and are rarely on until late in the afternoon for me) I am not going to give my analysis in public now, but we can QT about it if you still want to know. I am glad I didn't suddenly get lynched out of nowhere, though Bunny of Faith made it sound like I was closer than I was by Valmark's count.

This is 18 hours after the previous post. Long sleep, I guess. But also I really don't like how they just screwed off until the Night after getting called out and stammering out a weird defense. Wolf lean.

My point is, I didn't want to post in night phase. I am fine to do it publicly tomorrow as well.

Null. Anybody could've posted this.

If there is a star next to the people who posts names then they are signed in when they posted and the unique views won't go up, however if they aren't signed in and access the QT from a different IP, then unique views could be artificially inflated. Shouldn't be off by more than 1 or 2 though (most people have a phone, work, and home computer that could all access the page, though if they are signed in on more than one device it won't increment unique views).

Weak town lean for contributing to the QT discussion.

rogue_alchemist: +0/Null
The good and bad balance out, but there's not really that much to work with here. RA not being here for the EoD1 looks weird, and not posting yet on D2 even though we're ~18 hours in also isn't a good look. Just one more person who needs to contribute a whole lot more.

Spoiler: Snowblaze ISO

Show

If I start a bandwagon based on reasoning other than RNG, does that make me a wolf? One way to find out...

Lord Athos, you are charged with the murder of a perfectly innocent and harmless survivor who just so happened to be me. How do you plead?

- - - Updated - - -

Also, Valmark, does this mean the roles in the OP of the recruitment thread are confirmed to exist in this game or not?

Null. Revenge votes are something I can get behind.

gac3 says something suspicious-seeming and people are suspicious of them for it. Aventine defends them and is suspicious of their accusers.

...now, where have I seen these precise events before? And what were the alignments of the people in question?

Of course, the fact that AV is involved this time makes things a lot harder to read, but the parallels are undeniable.

(For those who weren’t around for the game in question: Midwest Mafia, Aventine and gac3 were town and their accusers, including me, were wolves.)

Weak town lean. It's an interesting parallel to call out, particularly since gac shows it's happened more than once.

This is why I was tempted to start a bandwagon using RNG justification - to prove the point that doing so doesn’t automatically make someone a wolf just because rogue_alchemist and I did it as wolves. (And also to torture you with WIFOM, because evilness.)

But avenging my murder is more important. Plus there was a chance that RNG wouldn’t have given me a bandwagon to start.

Null.

I was interpreting it as meaning that a baner would be told if they successfully protected someone, but there's a good chance there's also a watcher/tracker out there...

Null.

Are you implying I'm not innocent or harmless? How dare you!

Null.

Striking out old votes is encouraged, compulsory in some games. That reminds me: @Valmark, do we need to strike out an old vote for a new one to count, or is that not necessary?

Generally, you can edit to cross out a vote or to fix typos or formatting, but anything more is heavily discouraged.

Null.

Let’s go through the history of the Lord Athos and JWL wagons, shall we?

1. The wagons are both started by RNG votes: Apogee1 on Lord Athos, bc56 on JWL.

2. I add the second vote to Lord Athos for murdering me. Caoimhin adds the second vote to JWL for not posting.

3. Aventine adds a third vote on Lord Athos. They don’t give reasoning, but I’ve seen them vote for pressure and to join a wagon as town before. Unavenger adds the third vote to JWL but removes it straight away. Logan1996 adds the actual third vote on grounds of inactivity.

4. Book Wombat places the fourth Lord Athos vote, a blatant OMGUS. AvatarVecna tries to get JWL to speak up with a fourth vote.

5. Lord Athos observes his wagon is weird. JoyWonderLove adds the fifth vote as self-preservation. A bit early, with this much time left, but not necessarily a bad thing.

6. Apogee1 swaps wagons, believing that the LA wagon is a counter to the JWL wagon... Aventine, liking Athos’s tone, jumps off the wagon. Finally gac3 boards the LA wagon, suspicious of recent vote changes.

I have to go shortly, so I can’t post my conclusions, but hopefully this helps! See you all later.

Weak town lean. Good to get all this information gathered, since it can be hard to keep track of when things happened. Could be a wolf trying to look more helpful than they actually are, but doesn't strike me that way.

Actually, I don’t really know what I can conclude. I’m tired, my brain isn’t functioning. Happy with my vote where it is for now.

Also, I am aware that my inbox has been full since yesterday evening, and there is now space for messages. Just in case anyone tried to network with me overnight.

Null, and disappointing.

Elenna’s claimed role was in the OP of the recruitment thread, and I can’t see why a wolf would make a move like that. And when you say “gut”, your vote there was RNG.

Null. I can see a reason, but then I'm paranoid about Elenna so...

Why do you think rogue_alchemist is town? And if you’re not sure about the JWL wagon, why are you still on it?

Helpful vote count:
Lord Athos 5 ( Snowblaze, Book Wombat, JoyWonderLove, gac3, JeenLeen)
Logan1996 2 (Bunny of Faith, Unavenger)
Apogee1 1 (Elenna)
JoyWonderLove 5 (bc56, CaoimhinTheCape, Logan1996, AvatarVecna, Apogee1)
Rogue_alchemist 2 (JeenLeen, Aventine)
Book Wombat 1 (Lord Athos)
Elenna 1 (rogue_alchemist)

(Note: JWL reached five votes first so will be lynched if nothing changes... assuming Valmark is using those tie rules.)

@Valmark, what are the tie rules?

Weak wolf lean. Posting a vote-count, asking an easy question of a suspicious post, and asking a game clarification question, is like a "looking helpful when you're not actually providing any info/analysis" wolf bingo.

Thanks. Should really have checked the recruitment thread before asking.

Null.

Sure. rogue_alchemist.

Null. Would've been wolf lean if LA had flipped wolf, given how eager Snowblaze seemed to vote somebody else into the lead, but Athos flipped town, so...yeah.

Welp, so sorry about messing up the vote count. And I suppose I can consider my death in Crazy Idea avenged, but given we mislynched… not so great.

Null. I'm tempted to say that apologies after a mislynch look wolfy, but then I was super-wrong about that exact thing in Midwest.

I'll be nice and give you a buffer post.

*is definitely not refreshing obsessively at all*

Null.

So, I have basically no clue what’s going on. I’ll start by voting for bc56, at least until he answers my questions from yesterday:

Town lean for not letting it go unanswered just because of the time difference. Anything that gets one of our inactives posting more is good in my book.

Fair enough. I don’t have anything else to go on, though, so leaving my vote where it is for now. Hopefully tomorrow I can come up with some strong reads.

Null.

Snowblaze: +3
I'm liking the level of activity, but I'd prefer more real content to engage with and discuss. Who are your top three town/scum leans right now?

Spoiler: Unavenger ISO

Show

Can confirm that at least one of the roles is in there unaltered, though.

Town lean. Vague softclaim in your first post is ballsy, and I like it...although not voting isn't very Cash Money of you.

Uh, yeah, I can't really be bothered to RVS because it's always just performative and stuff. Nah, I thought I'd mention something useful and also commit to at least a partial claim instead. A bit of assurance that I can fall back on late-game, you know?

I guess it's not necessarily completely useless to RVS? Still, I prefer to wait and poke people who aren't participating.

Come to think of it, I'm surprised that JWL and Logan aren't posting. Really, I normally think of them as normally being fairly active players. Although, it's still early, but I guess I should make a move. Zeroing in on some target or other, I guess I'll vote JoyWonderLove. You feel like talking some more for us?

(Oh, didn't realise JWL was being voted for already. Never mind, I'll vote Logan1996 as another poke. Easy enough.)

Weak wolf lean for this post. Trashing the early D1 stuff a bit, which I don't like. Voting an inactive, but changing because they were already being voted? Pressure is how we get inactives posting - being suddenly the leading wagon at 5 votes is why JWL showed up when she did. But then switching to another inactive who also already has a vote on them...NAGL. But then...

Yeah okay I didn't notice a bunch of things. Is this gonna turn into the Midwest game all over again where people lynch me because I'm not spending all my time making sure everything is accurate? Because if so just go ahead and do that because I don't care enough to fight it this time.

For heaven's sake, I noticed that something was wrong and quickly changed it without thinking. Also these are moves which make exactly as little sense no matter what my alignment so it's pretty bloody obvious that I'm just tired, stressed, and not paying full attention to this game. It happens.

Yeah but I know how fast that can change when like two well-meaning townies go HUH THAT'S ODD and everyone suddenly CFDs you so I'm being Prepared^TM.

Strong town lean. This feels just like how Unavenger was acting in Midwest, and not like how they were acting in Corporate. I've got good feelings about this.

Elenna clear your PMs I wanna tell you what to do without letting the wolves know about it, because I have a feeling I'll flip and you'll know you're helping town if that's a thing you wanna do.

Null. Could be legit, could be performative.

First off, not to be too cryptic (haha, sike, I'm gonna be cryptic) but if the person who did the thing that they did last night could keep on doing that, that would be great because that's really cool and takes away all the weirdness that would otherwise make my job harder.

Second off, yikes, losing a doctor might be an issue.

Third, I might go around and ISO everyone in a bit but really not feeling up to doin' stuff right now. >.>

Weak town lean, but only cuz I know what they're talking about.

Unavenger: +5
The townread I'm most confident in, by far. Unfortunately, posts are low on quantity and quality thus far, definitely wanna see more effort out there.

[Snowblaze]

You want my reads? Oh dear. My reads are a confused mess at the moment. Mainly because I really need to get a strong read on you to be able to get a proper grip on the game, but I have no clue how to do that.

Going by what I told you last night, my top townread is still Unavenger for more or less the same reasons as yours. My second townread was Aventine (RIP)... replace that with JeenLeen, because I don’t think a wolf would publicly admit to seeing the unique views.

I’m no longer as confident in my third townread, and paranoia is getting to me at this point. I’ll see if I can find someone else.

As for wolf reads... again, paranoia. Mostly concerning you, to be honest (care to respond to my charge of spreading misinformation?). But I don’t think you’re a wolf right now (okay, fine, I hope you’re not a wolf because we’re screwed if you are.)

So I guess I still have my same three wolf reads as in the night. JWL by default for being the counterwagon to confirmed town (although as you can tell I’m less sure on this one); rogue_alchemist for trying not to provide information for us to analyse; and bc56 for relative inactivity and slight inconsistencies, although most of those have been addressed in his response to my recent post.

I’ll need to re-read the thread, see if I can come up with something I’m more confident in than this.

[AvatarVecna]

As for wolf reads... again, paranoia. Mostly concerning you, to be honest (care to respond to my charge of spreading misinformation?). But I don’t think you’re a wolf right now (okay, fine, I hope you’re not a wolf because we’re screwed if you are.)

Wasn't intentional misinformation at least. More just...crossed wires. Given how games have gone recently, I've come to expect wolves will have one unblockable kill, and that's sometimes associated with the Beast role to give them a power beyond "dying with style". I guess I kinda skimmed the example roles and missed that this Beast is nothing more than that, is all.

(Also, I wasn't ignoring you, it's just that those ISO posts are both like a hair short of being too long, and posting immediately after one kept trying to update my new post into the old one and making it too long to get posted.)

[Snowblaze]

So. I need to get a read on AV. This is not going to go well.

Spoiler: AvatarVecna, Day One

Show

They start by voting for an inactive: something they more or less always do. Fairly null, although pushing inactive townies is a good strategy for a wolf. They then suspect gac3 for another suspicious-looking post, although this one is more an attempt to avoid looking suspicious. (I kind of agreed on first sight, but I changed my mind pretty soon afterwards.) The suspicions of Aventine seem fairly jokey at this stage.

More poking of inactives. Questioning of Unavenger’s logic. Building a wagon on the only person yet to post. Keeping that vote there after an apparently suspicious entrance. From what I can remember of Crazy Idea after my murder (nope, definitely not still sore about it. Although since one of those responsible is dead, one’s narrating and one’s not playing, I think I can let my revenge wait a little longer), their statement on Aventine is accurate: they were on both counterwagons to fellow cultist AV and defended Caoimhin strongly day two.

Vote count and general thoughts, which make sense and fit the consensus fairly well. Their rephrasing of Aventine’s post on rogue_alchemist can’t really be seen as a defence. Asking others for reads and analysis. Then the end-of-day shenanigans: apparently misled by my incorrect vote count, a switch to rogue_alchemist, getting me to join them. Finally, that switch to Lord Athos to test a vote-manipulation claim.

(I prefer doing it this way to ISOs, partly because I don’t trust myself to not mess up the formatting and partly because rephrasing the points in my own words helps me to get a better grip on it.)

Conclusions: I see nothing here that I think AV couldn’t fake as a wolf. To be fair, there’s nothing to make me strongly scumread AV either, but I can’t really see AV making any major slips on day one.

I’ll save the night-time dialogue and today’s ISOs for later, since I do actually have other stuff I’m supposed to be doing.

[Bunny of Faith]

Halfway through my big ol' (it's not that big) readpost, but since it might take me a bit longer to get finished I'm going to throw my vote at JoyWonderLove to aid in gathering info.

[Snowblaze]

Well.

Spoiler: AvatarVecna, Night One/Day Two

Show

Night one, they respond to Aventine’s suspicion of them with mostly valid points, and then, you know, threaten to kill Aventine. And then Aventine died. And was revealed as the doctor, Which... well. Doesn’t exactly look good for AV, does it? So I guess the question is does scum!AV kill Aventine, or do non-AV scum kill Aventine to frame AV, or do non-AV scum try and fail to kill someone else?

Bear in mind that at this point AV has claimed vigilante to everyone in private, and also publicly stated their intent to kill Aventine. AV begins day two with a full response to Aventine’s charges against them. I don’t agree with many of Aventine’s points on AV, so I’m fine with that.

Then there’s proper analysis of the single kill.

Possibility one is possible, and I can see wolves thinking it’s a gambit.

Possibility two is unlikely, given that we have reason to believe we can account for the roleblockers. Unless, of course, either Elenna or JeenLeen is a wolf trying the same stunt I did in X-Mafia. Not impossible, but I don’t think it’s likely.

Possibility three, not necessarily. Unless Aventine was roleblocked or the wolves have an unblockable kill (neither of which there is any evidence for at this point), the only explanation is this they protected someone other than themselves.

Possibility four, I’m fairly sure the wolves aren’t that incompetent.

Possibility five, evident misinformation, as I said earlier. May be an accident, but may not. Anyway, even supposing the wolves do have an unblockable kill, why would they use it on someone they have no reason to believe would be protected? Unless they somehow knew Aventine was the doctor... and I can’t see how considering there weren’t any nights for a Devil to scry and I think Aventine would be cautious about claiming in private.

I’ve read through the ISOs they did, and haven’t spotted anything to really make me suspect them. I don’t have the energy to plough through and nitpick them, but I will take them into account when trying to read others.

So, in conclusion, the only reasons I have to suspect AV are the fact that Aventine, and only Aventine, died last night, and I can’t find an explanation that sits comfortably with me for how this can be the case if AV is telling the truth, plus the misleading fifth possibility which could still be intentionally so. I still don’t know if AV is a wolf, but unless things change I can’t see myself lynching them today.

Now, if you don’t mind, I need a break from analysis. My brain hurts, and typing this much on a tablet is not good for my fingers.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, let’s analyse people who aren’t AV. This may be slightly less painful, but my brain is hurting a great deal so I doubt it. I’m confident enough in my townread on Unavenger to skip them and move on to rogue_alchemist.

Starts with an RNG vote and a FOS on gac3, although it’s unclear how serious said suspicion was. Then the post that initially attracts my suspicions. I don’t see any reason to suspect Elenna other than that if she could get the real Spirit on her side it would be an excellent fake-claim for a wolf. I’ll save most of those thoughts for when I get to Elenna, though.

Anyway, I stand by my earlier belief that calling an RNG vote “gut” is kind of odd. Then there’s messaging JeenLeen to start a towncore. Rogue_alchemist has literally no reason to trust JeenLeen at this point. If he’s town he’s taking a risk for very little reason. I’m not really a fan of the next post, either. I mean, I can kind of see why you’d want to not be suspected, but... the way to avoid suspicion isn’t to not take any stance in anything, it’s to prove your innocence by helping to find wolves.

Conclusions: that scum read just got a lot stronger in re-reading. In fact, rogue_alchemist.

Also, when you show up and post, a friendly reminder to answer AV’s question on top three wolf and town reads.

[Logan1996]

Got some conflicting information from AvatarVecna. Not sure if it was a wolf slip or what.