Beware of Bites!

[Snowblaze]

Let’s go through the history of the Lord Athos and JWL wagons, shall we?

1. The wagons are both started by RNG votes: Apogee1 on Lord Athos, bc56 on JWL.

2. I add the second vote to Lord Athos for murdering me. Caoimhin adds the second vote to JWL for not posting.

3. Aventine adds a third vote on Lord Athos. They don’t give reasoning, but I’ve seen them vote for pressure and to join a wagon as town before. Unavenger adds the third vote to JWL but removes it straight away. Logan1996 adds the actual third vote on grounds of inactivity.

4. Book Wombat places the fourth Lord Athos vote, a blatant OMGUS. AvatarVecna tries to get JWL to speak up with a fourth vote.

5. Lord Athos observes his wagon is weird. JoyWonderLove adds the fifth vote as self-preservation. A bit early, with this much time left, but not necessarily a bad thing.

6. Apogee1 swaps wagons, believing that the LA wagon is a counter to the JWL wagon... Aventine, liking Athos’s tone, jumps off the wagon. Finally gac3 boards the LA wagon, suspicious of recent vote changes.

I have to go shortly, so I can’t post my conclusions, but hopefully this helps! See you all later.

[Snowblaze]

Actually, I don’t really know what I can conclude. I’m tired, my brain isn’t functioning. Happy with my vote where it is for now.

Also, I am aware that my inbox has been full since yesterday evening, and there is now space for messages. Just in case anyone tried to network with me overnight.

[rogue_alchemist]

none of us will know what to conclude until people start flipping (or not) based on votes. Day 1 is chaotic, but becomes useful later on. I am not going to change my vote as I am happy with my gut, even though Elenna has claimed a role. I find her claim a little suspicious for her claimed powers, but not so suspicious that I want to go too much into it yet.

On another note we have about 21 hours remaining to finish voting. Make sure you land where you're happy!

[Snowblaze]

none of us will know what to conclude until people start flipping (or not) based on votes. Day 1 is chaotic, but becomes useful later on. I am not going to change my vote as I am happy with my gut, even though Elenna has claimed a role. I find her claim a little suspicious for her claimed powers, but not so suspicious that I want to go too much into it yet.

On another note we have about 21 hours remaining to finish voting. Make sure you land where you're happy!

Elenna’s claimed role was in the OP of the recruitment thread, and I can’t see why a wolf would make a move like that. And when you say “gut”, your vote there was RNG.

[JeenLeen]

none of us will know what to conclude until people start flipping (or not) based on votes. Day 1 is chaotic, but becomes useful later on. I am not going to change my vote as I am happy with my gut, even though Elenna has claimed a role. I find her claim a little suspicious for her claimed powers, but not so suspicious that I want to go too much into it yet.

I've been thinking a bit about how much to believe Elenna, including in light of a QuickTopic with her.

This Role is an awesome cover for a wolf. She's telling me that she can leave after fulfilling her win condition, but isn't required to. Also, when I asked her to redirect me, she said she's consider it but has other offers and is trying to decide what to do.
All of that sounds VERY believable. None of that weighs her as a wolf.

On the other hand, it's good cover for a wolf. She could say she just decided to stay in the game (even to help Town). She could wait until enough people QT her to choose somebody whose power can emulate; like, I don't buy a wolf being able to do all 4 powers, but I can buy one or two of them being emulatable by the wolves, and thus the wolves being able to keep up the disguise.
It's also a good way for the wolves to gain intel. I could see them doing that as a gambit (risking 1 wolf) to gain a lot of potential intel from the Town.

The only reason it's a really BAD cover story for a wolf is a real Spirit could counterclaim. The Spirit doesn't have much risk from counterclaiming, but neither do they have much reason to counterclaim.

TL;DR: while I see why some folk might have suspicions, I don't think there's a good reason to suspect Elenna.

- - - Updated - - -

RNG says Elenna. Though FOS at Gac for trying to break with his tradition .

none of us will know what to conclude until people start flipping (or not) based on votes. Day 1 is chaotic, but becomes useful later on. I am not going to change my vote as I am happy with my gut, even though Elenna has claimed a role. I find her claim a little suspicious for her claimed powers, but not so suspicious that I want to go too much into it yet.

Elenna’s claimed role was in the OP of the recruitment thread, and I can’t see why a wolf would make a move like that. And when you say “gut”, your vote there was RNG.

It does look suspicious to see someone say RNG first then say it was gut.
rogue_alchemist could mean he has a gut reaction against Elenna now. It's not necessarily contradicting what he first said, but it does look odd, like something a wolf might say who forgot their cover story was RNG.

Anyway, guess just FOS on rogue_alchemist.
Changing my vote won't impact the lynch unless I change it to Lord Athos or JoyWonderLove, and I'm confused by the movement around their wagons, so I'm not inclined to change it currently.

[Apogee1]

I've been thinking a bit about how much to believe Elenna, including in light of a QuickTopic with her.

This Role is an awesome cover for a wolf. She's telling me that she can leave after fulfilling her win condition, but isn't required to. Also, when I asked her to redirect me, she said she's consider it but has other offers and is trying to decide what to do.
All of that sounds VERY believable. None of that weighs her as a wolf.

On the other hand, it's good cover for a wolf. She could say she just decided to stay in the game (even to help Town). She could wait until enough people QT her to choose somebody whose power can emulate; like, I don't buy a wolf being able to do all 4 powers, but I can buy one or two of them being emulatable by the wolves, and thus the wolves being able to keep up the disguise.
It's also a good way for the wolves to gain intel. I could see them doing that as a gambit (risking 1 wolf) to gain a lot of potential intel from the Town.

The only reason it's a really BAD cover story for a wolf is a real Spirit could counterclaim. The Spirit doesn't have much risk from counterclaiming, but neither do they have much reason to counterclaim.

TL;DR: while I see why some folk might have suspicions, I don't think there's a good reason to suspect Elenna.

I mean isn't it also self resolving in a way, where if Elenna hasn't left after n4 we get really suspicious of what's going on?

[JeenLeen]

I mean isn't it also self resolving in a way, where if Elenna hasn't left after n4 we get really suspicious of what's going on?

Good point. I had considered that, but wasn't able to think of a good phrasing for it.

However, it's a mixed bag. If she really is neutral, the Town would want her to stick around to keep the Last Day from coming; but if she sticks around, we'd probably lynch her as that's really suspicious.
And I guess it's not too bad for Town if we let a wolf survive for 4 nights.

So really it's not a great cover story, just a good (and temporary) one.

---

Also, as I think on it more, I'm going to go ahead and move my vote to rogue_alchemist based on the inconsistency Snowblaze pointed out. Nothing they say is really suspicious, but it's more than the nothing I had on gac3. Maybe we're get some good discussion out of it.

[rogue_alchemist]

Elenna’s claimed role was in the OP of the recruitment thread, and I can’t see why a wolf would make a move like that. And when you say “gut”, your vote there was RNG.

Per JeenLeen's comment I did mean that my gut is now happy with the RNG choice. But I will be messaging JeenLeen shortly about possible collusion to get a town core going.

[Elenna]

To answer a couple questions that several people have asked:

• If I use all my powers, I can choose whether or not to leave the game (as JeenLeen has said), but I lose if I die after using all my powers. So there isn't really a ton of reason for me to stay in. We'll see what the game looks like by D5 (assuming I survive that long), maybe I'll decide to support one side or the other for fun?
• I want to support whichever side can end the game fastest, because having a quick game makes me more likely to win, but exactly which side that is will depend on what happens in the game. Right now it's town, because they have less people they need to kill, but that might change later. I also don't have much idea right now of who is on which side, anyways. So right now I'm mostly just picking what to do based on what seems the most interesting/fun

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Votes

Show

Apogee1

JoyWonderLove

Lord Athos

Book Wombat

Elenna

Logan1996

JoyWonderLove

Logan1996

Joywonderlove

Lord Athos

JoyWonderLove

Lord Athos

JoyWonderLove

Book Wombat

Lord Athos

Apogee1: Elenna
Book Wombat: Lord Athos, Aventine
Elenna: rogue_alchemist
JoyWonderLove: bc56, CaoimhinTheCape, Logan1996, AvatarVecna, Apogee1
Logan1996: Bunny of Faith, Unavenger
Lord Athos: Snowblaze, Book Wombat, JoyWonderLove, gac3

Looks to me like JWL is up for the lynch, then. For some reason I thought Lord Athos was still tied for first.

Lotta weird vote moves to analyze coming out of today.

- - - Updated - - -

Some thoughts reading through the thread so far:

1) Has anybody heard anything from bc56 in private? Because I haven't. Only thing I've got from them is their public post promising to be more active this game.

2) Lord Athos has posted since wagons got big, but hasn't changed their vote to self-preservation. I think that's a good sign and I see why Aventine moved off.

3) Cao needs to cross out his old vote on me, trips me up every time I do a vote-count.

4) All the talk about cops has gotten me thinking...if they claim, and one ends up dying, we should at least consider killing the other. If Doubting dies, Trusting joins team Evil, so of course kill em. But if Trusting dies, Doubting becomes a blind-firing Vig, which isn't quite as bad for town as an extra wolf, but is still pretty bad for town. At the very least, would need to network with them to prevent blind-firing too much.

5) Unavenger salt is townslip.

6) Yeah not liking gac3's reaction to Aventine's move. And I've already got a FoS on them from earlier...

7) Elenna makes a solid argument for us lynching her if she's still here D5. I mean, Playful!Elenna has no reason to stick around, so if she sticks around...maybe it's because leaving isn't actually an option? Maybe she's lying? But that's forever away.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

3) Cao needs to cross out his old vote on me, trips me up every time I do a vote-count.

Fixed.




Also, nothing really more to add. It is just day one so even though my vote was for JWL not being around yet, not sure I have a better place to put it.

[Aventine]

none of us will know what to conclude until people start flipping (or not) based on votes. Day 1 is chaotic, but becomes useful later on. I am not going to change my vote as I am happy with my gut, even though Elenna has claimed a role. I find her claim a little suspicious for her claimed powers, but not so suspicious that I want to go too much into it yet.

On another note we have about 21 hours remaining to finish voting. Make sure you land where you're happy!

Acknowledges that there is value in coming back later and seeing who voted how on day one. Then keeps his vote on someone he originally voted for based on RNG and who now has, realistically, no chance of being lynched today.

In other words: knows day one voting patterns can be informative and avoids giving us anything that could potentially link him to scum in the future.

[rogue_alchemist]

Acknowledges that there is value in coming back later and seeing who voted how on day one. Then keeps his vote on someone he originally voted for based on RNG and who now has, realistically, no chance of being lynched today.

In other words: knows day one voting patterns can be informative and avoids giving us anything that could potentially link him to scum in the future.

Exactly, why would I want to vote in some way that could link me to scrum later? I have no information to act off of and it is RNG anyways, so let it be what it is. If there was actionable information, then I could change (such as if Elenna ended up being a wagon and I believed her claim, I could move off), but to randomly support a wagon that has no discernible reason to exist anyways, no thanks.

[AvatarVecna]

Exactly, why would I want to vote in some way that could link me to scrum later? I have no information to act off of and it is RNG anyways, so let it be what it is. If there was actionable information, then I could change (such as if Elenna ended up being a wagon and I believed her claim, I could move off), but to randomly support a wagon that has no discernible reason to exist anyways, no thanks.

Aventine's point is that seeing how people's votes moved D1 is useful later for sussing out who's scum and who's town. Literally the point he's making is that your previous post looks like this:

Moving my vote around, and talking about my reasoning for doing so, would give town info a few days from now. And that's why I'm not going to do it.

That's probably not what you meant by it, bu I hope you can see his point better now.

[rogue_alchemist]

Aventine's point is that seeing how people's votes moved D1 is useful later for sussing out who's scum and who's town. Literally the point he's making is that your previous post looks like this:



That's probably not what you meant by it, bu I hope you can see his point better now.

I do see his point better now, thank you. I am still learning all this PbP werewolf stuff. I get aspects of it and then other things slip my mind or go right over my head. It is like trying to solve a linked system of equations through iterative guess and check. You make slow progress and think you have it figured out only to have it blow up in your face and then have to start again.

But I have seen no good reasons to change my vote, so I am leaving it.

[Aventine]

Exactly, why would I want to vote in some way that could link me to scrum later? I have no information to act off of and it is RNG anyways, so let it be what it is. If there was actionable information, then I could change (such as if Elenna ended up being a wagon and I believed her claim, I could move off), but to randomly support a wagon that has no discernible reason to exist anyways, no thanks.

rogue_alchemist.

(I don't like switching off Wombat without having heard from him. So be warned, Wombat, that I'm gonna tunnel-vision you hard tomorrow if I don't hear from you before end-of-day)

[Bunny of Faith]

rogue_alchemist.

(I don't like switching off Wombat without having heard from him. So be warned, Wombat, that I'm gonna tunnel-vision you hard tomorrow if I don't hear from you before end-of-day)

Cute is justice, wombats shall never be monsters. Vote for Lord Athos

He did post, just didn't say anything exciting beyond tossing out a vote early on.

[Aventine]

That was well before my vote. I wanted a response to being voted for.

[gac3]

Moving my vote around, and talking about my reasoning for doing so, would give town info a few days from now. And that's why I'm not going to do it.

AV used the above quote but I'm having trouble finding it in the original. Anyone know?

[AvatarVecna]

AV used the above quote but I'm having trouble finding it in the original. Anyone know?

It's not a real quote, it's taking the quote Aventine was taking issue with, and rewording it to more clearly indicate why Aventine took issue with it.

[gac3]

See... Maybe I should play more non power role games. Without flips and powers, I really feel like I don't know how to read people.

[AvatarVecna]

See... Maybe I should play more non power role games. Without flips and powers, I really feel like I don't know how to read people.

I've mentioned it somewhere publicly, but high-PR games are enticing to newer players in a way that no-PR games very much aren't. As you get more experience at the game, the value of an occasional low/no-PR game for honing your read skills grows.

L4D3 is going to be low-PR game, for example.

[JeenLeen]

Per JeenLeen's comment I did mean that my gut is now happy with the RNG choice. But I will be messaging JeenLeen shortly about possible collusion to get a town core going.

Apogee1: Elenna
Book Wombat: Lord Athos, Aventine
Elenna: rogue_alchemist
JoyWonderLove: bc56, CaoimhinTheCape, Logan1996, AvatarVecna, Apogee1
Logan1996: Bunny of Faith, Unavenger
Lord Athos: Snowblaze, Book Wombat, JoyWonderLove, gac3

Looks to me like JWL is up for the lynch, then. For some reason I thought Lord Athos was still tied for first.

I don't fully trust rogue_alchemist, but I have reason to suspend my suspicion, at least on a temporary basis.
I'm still not sure what to make of the JWL vs Lord Athos set, but it looks like some info is there for harvesting after the Day ends. So I'll set the tie again via a vote on Lord Athos.

Also, I find it odd that AV left my vote on rogue_alchemist out of her post. AvatarVecna: was that a typo, intentional, or just tangential to the purpose of your post?

[AvatarVecna]

I don't fully trust rogue_alchemist, but I have reason to suspend my suspicion, at least on a temporary basis.
I'm still not sure what to make of the JWL vs Lord Athos set, but it looks like some info is there for harvesting after the Day ends. So I'll set the tie again via a vote on Lord Athos.

Also, I find it odd that AV left my vote on rogue_alchemist out of her post. AvatarVecna: was that a typo, intentional, or just tangential to the purpose of your post?

I think I just missed the vote

[AvatarVecna]

@Lord Athos
@JoyWonderLove
@rogue_alchemist

Who are your top three scum leans and town leans at this point in time?

[Apogee1]

Hmm well EOD may or may not occur before I wake up and check the thread in the morning. I'm okay with keeping my vote on JWL based on page 3, but if someone figures any thing major out in the next 8 hours I'll do my best to be back here and update my vote with that information.

[bc56]

Hmm

I'm honestly not so sure about the JWL or Athos wagons anymore. However, Rogue_Alchemist reads as town to me, so I'm disinclined to move there.

Anyone have a compelling argument either way? If I don't hear anything, my vote will probably stay as is.

[Snowblaze]

Why do you think rogue_alchemist is town? And if you’re not sure about the JWL wagon, why are you still on it?

Helpful vote count:
Lord Athos 5 ( Snowblaze, Book Wombat, JoyWonderLove, gac3, JeenLeen)
Logan1996 2 (Bunny of Faith, Unavenger)
Apogee1 1 (Elenna)
JoyWonderLove 5 (bc56, CaoimhinTheCape, Logan1996, AvatarVecna, Apogee1)
Rogue_alchemist 2 (JeenLeen, Aventine)
Book Wombat 1 (Lord Athos)
Elenna 1 (rogue_alchemist)

(Note: JWL reached five votes first so will be lynched if nothing changes... assuming Valmark is using those tie rules.)

@Valmark, what are the tie rules?

[Bunny of Faith]

@Valmark, what are the tie rules?

From the recruitment thread:

Day Phase and Night Phase are 48 hours periods, during the former people will talk between them and who wants will vote someone to get them lynched. At the end of the phase, the one with most votes will be eliminated- in case of a tie, the one who reached it first in the day will die.

[Snowblaze]

Thanks. Should really have checked the recruitment thread before asking.