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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackhawk748 View Post
    I honestly don't think it is. They now have the Max 3 rule, which can sort of stop spam, and the Factions that have good Troops use them and the ones that don't grab the minimum and run the good stuff.

    Honestly, if anything, I feel they need to bring back 0-1 that used to be a thing in 4th.
    I'll wait and see on that. But really, so far the only slot that actually feels limiting is HQs, and with the secondaries the way they are, you don't want too many characters anyways.

    Still, it has at least been a consideration in my theory lists anyways. There's been a few times where I've wanted more Fast Attack or Heavy Support choices than I could take in a Battalion. But those lists were more thematic and fun than competitive. I'm not sure of any competitive builds that really miss having all the slots they could take. Well, unless Triple Repulsor and Triple Thunderfires is still considered good.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Requizen View Post
    I'm seriously curious why this whole "Core Keyword" thing isn't in the base rulebook for the new edition, if it's going to be a big part of the design process...
    Obviously, because they didn't think of it until after the rulebook was printed.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Why would it be in the rulebook? All having it there would do is repeat rules.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LeSwordfish View Post
    Why would it be in the rulebook? All having it there would do is repeat rules.
    Because then it doesnt need to get redefined on every codex, just tag whichever datasheets need it and key it on the abilities that care about it.

    So what we've got is a choice that used to be meaningful, but over time has become less so?
    Not at all. You have a knob on unit balance thats easier to turn than 'gets affected by character abilities'. By creating different / more detachments you increase or limite the availability of a certain unit, but less on an absolute sense (i.e. Rule of 3) and more in the context of units who'd perform similarly. Its a more nuanced, deeper aproach than this core nonsense, even if execution (what gets labeled what) isnt always perfect

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LansXero View Post
    Because then it doesnt need to get redefined on every codex, just tag whichever datasheets need it and key it on the abilities that care about it.
    .

    It doesn't need defining at all. What would that rule look like? "Some units are core units. some other things specifically refer to core units." You're just calling out one specific instance of the general Keywords rule - lots of things across codices refer to Biker or Daemon or whatever but you don't need a thing that says "Some units have the Biker keyword. some abilities target the Biker keyword."
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Avaris View Post
    So what we've got is a choice that used to be meaningful, but over time has become less so?
    2nd Ed. had a system of percentage-based nonsense. Interestingly, 2nd Ed. only had three categories of unit; Heroes, Core and Support. Because you were forced to spend points on Core units, it significantly empowered Factions with good Core units. Whilst needlessly punishing players who had cheap Core units, as they were forced to spend more currency to make up the points. By forcing players to spend their points on Core, it meant that certain Death Star-units and Heroes took center-stage as literally half of anyone's army was basically useless.

    3rd Ed. had the standard FOC chart (3 Elite slots, not the current 4) that's been mostly the same until today. You still had to take 'Troops' units, they were mandatory. However, the amount of actual points you spent on Troops, was no longer enforced. This was a huge improvement. If you didn't want to run Troops, then run the minimum number of minimum-sized units. If you have good Troops, run more Troops. Contrasted to 2nd Ed., now that you had freedom with your points, you had more opportunities to run 'good stuff', which means power units were less likely to dominate the game. They still existed, absolutely. But because you were no longer forced to spend points on bad stuff - only slots - it meant that whatever was actually good in your Faction, you could run.
    Of course, this had the obvious downside that people could run minimum Troops, and maximum Heavy Support...But it's not like that's changed 25 years later...

    3rd Ed.'s system worked fine for 14 years. "Back in my day [grumble mumble...] and we liked it!"

    6th Ed. changed things. Mostly because now people had been playing for a long time, and collections were bigger, and could there please be something between 1500 Points, and Apocalypse (usually 5000 Points, minimum)? The existing Force Organisation Chart can't cater to large(r) games, and also, I want to use all my toys! The 'Force Organisation Chart' is now separated, into the classic Combined Arms Detachment.
    - Every 2000 Points, you get an additional Combined Arms Detachment - including the mandatory HQ and Troops taxes. However, this was obviously bat**** insane and no-one would ever do this. Who the **** wants to run 4 HQs and six Troops, when all's they really want to do, is run six Heavy Support choices? This had the weird effect of making tournaments 1999 Points, or 1999+1 Points. Because no-one wanted to run that kind of tournament.
    - You also had Allied Detachments (AD)...Basically what we might know as a Patrol Detachment. This allowed people to get extra Role slots into their army. But it had the added benefit of people throwing money at GW. "Yeah...You can have your extra slots...But you can't use the same models. Buy another Codex! And get different models!" Obviously, the true winners - as consumers, that is - of the CAD/AD forced money-spending scheme, was Space Marine players, because everything they own is the same across every Codex (8th Ed. would make this concept insane, but we'll get there).
    - Very, very, very late 6th Ed., the first Formation was introduced; The Tau (sic*) Firebase Support Cadre. A Riptide and 6 Broadsides, and holy **** you could just take them. You know the CAD/AD standard formation you've been running the entire time? **** that. You can now straight up just include the best units in the Tau (sic) Codex in your army. As well as having CAD/ADs on top.

    7th Ed. was a real golden age. People really liked the Tau Firebase Support Cadre. It's a mandatory 'Force Organisation Chart', except players only had to take units that they actually wanted. If it was a Formation of good units-to-begin-with (e.g; Riptide Wing), I mean, that was broken. Since the Formation added massive buffs already-good units, and that's crazy. But what about hobby? You know what Formations were really good for? For players who would ask "I want to run [X]. How do I run [X] in my army without being garbage?" A lot - a lot - of 'bad' units were significantly improved by being spammed included in a Formation (e.g; Land Speeders). One Formation that broke the entire game, was the Adeptus Mechanicus War Concovation, which came out of a White Dwarf! ...Which actually made it really easy to justifiably ban.

    7th Ed. had a limit of three Detachments. Usually this was a CAD, AD and Formation. An important note (this will become important very soon), is that only Troops inside CADs and ADs had Objective Secured. Troops units, inside Formations, did not have Objective Secured.

    However, 7th Ed.'s major mistake, was creating Formations-of-Formations - that only counted as a single Detachment. That is, 'Decurion-style' Detachments (DSDs), named for the first one to be printed, out of the Necron Codex. Which were separated into Command, Core and Auxilliary Formations. There are two infamous DSDs:

    • Gladius/Lion's Blade Strike Force. Now, 6th Ed. is infamous for being an edition of 40K where Space Marines were dog**** (Eldar/Craftworlds players love ignoring that 6th Ed. ever happened). 7th Ed. did a major over-correct (or perhaps, a return-to-form?). Now, the Core Formation of a Gladius (or a Lion's Blade) was a Battle Demi-Company. All Infantry in a Battle Demi-Company have Objective Secured (remember how Troops in Formations aren't supposed to have that...Well now everything in the Formation has it, not just the Troops), and you get bonus usages of Combat Doctrines. However, if you take two Battle Demi-Companies, you form a Battle Company... All Dedicated Transports (not including upgrades) are free. It should be noted at the time, that if a Dedicated Transport, contains a unit that has Objective Secured, inside it, the Transport gains Objective Secured. It's also important to note that unlike 8th Ed., capturing Objectives in 7th Ed. was hard. You either had it, or you didn't. If a unit has ObSec, it controls the Objective. If both units have ObSec, no-one gets it. This meant that an Objective could be 'held' by a single ObSec model. In 7th Ed., Troops were massively important because ObSec was the best rule in the game (Therefore, just like way back in 2nd Ed., Factions with terrible Troops, were terrible Factions). Space Marines obliterated the meta by saying that everything they owned, was Objective Secured. All of it. Also...Free Razorbacks and Drop Pods (no-one gave a **** about Rhinos).
    • Craftworld Warhost. In 7th Ed., Windriders were really good. Really, really good. One of the Warhost's Core Formations was a Windrider Warhost. There you go. Jetbikes are a Core Formation. Your army is already good. However, because of the asinine way things were done, the Warhost allowed for the ability to take as many Wraithknights as you wanted (it should be made clear, that at this time, Wraithknights were the best unit in the game). If you limited yourself to standard Force Organisation Charts, you were limited to a single Wraithknight, and you had to do some Forge World shenanigans to get a second. **** that. Straight out of the Codex, just take two, Hell, take three! GW doesn't care. You have to buy those Wraithknights, after all. Notably, the Craftworld Warhost didn't have any Objective Secured, and that made it really bad. But also...Your opponent can't hold Objectives if they're dead.

    Eldar/Craftworld players will consistently try and downplay the Warhost compared to the Gladius. Don't let them. It was just as good - if not better, depending on the Mission... And Craftworld players didn't have to spend stacks of cash buying 10+ Razorbacks that didn't even contribute to their points.

    This dumb ****ery would culminate in Gathering Storm Formations, and in particular, Coteaz's Castellans (it should be noted, that at the time, Inquisitor Coteaz was the bomb, it was just really difficult to get him into an army because the Inquistion sucked). Gathering Storm Formations allowed you to run any unit you wanted, from a select group of Codecies. All in the same army, and you didn't have to waste time trying to jam it into an FOC. One of Coteaz's abilities, was that all Infantry models in his Detachment, gained Objective Secured (as I said, Inquisition sucked, so it's not like that ability was helpful). Suddenly, Coteaz was selling out faster than Eliminators. If Coteaz's Castellans has taught me anything, it's that the Force Organisation Chart(s) matters, and it matters a lot.
    While I would like Formations to come back, I can very easily point to 7th Ed. as to why they shouldn't. It's just that they were really good for casuals and hobbyists because they gave really clear guidelines on what to buy and how to make your army good. Unfortunately, if a good player can read good, they gave really clear guidelines on how to make your army broken.

    8th Ed.'s Detachment system was pulled back. Like, do whatever you want...Within reason. Not only did you have Battalions (CADs with a bonus Elite choice) and Patrols (basically ADs). But also Vanguards, Spearheads and Outriders. Do whatever you want...Kind of. What 8th Ed. did absolutely right, was make the benefits of a Battalion (i.e; The CPs) better than the benefits of other Detachments. I've said it before and I'll say it again. 8th Ed. was the best edition of 40K that's ever been. And the army-building process was part of that.
    - "Do whatever you want, within reason." ...Okay, obviously you can't be trusted and you're running 5 Stormravens (back when they were good), so we're putting a 3-cap on everything except Troops and Transports, and now everything is great.
    Last edited by Cheesegear; 2020-09-17 at 07:14 PM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules



    Went into my local today, you can't buy a solid >60% of the SM range 'cause it's sold out. This weeks orders? Already sold out yesterday within 30 minutes of them arriving in store. You can buy anything else you want, except SM and SoB (though you can get Repentia and the Immolator and Exorcist online).

    SM are busted, even with the aura nerf and players know it.

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Requizen View Post
    I'm seriously curious why this whole "Core Keyword" thing isn't in the base rulebook for the new edition, if it's going to be a big part of the design process. Like yeah, it's Keywords and Auras that interact with Keywords, so it doesn't need to be in the rulebook, but you'd think it would be, like, referenced, or maybe part of missions/secondaries, or something like that. I wonder if it was added after 9th went to the printers but before the Codices went.



    You mean like they do in Age of Sig-

    What's that? I've run this bit into the ground? Whoops, my bad.
    So, exactly like how 40k used to do it for a decade or so for stuff like Deathwing/Ravenwing when you took Belial/Sammael, or how taking Kharn/Luscius/Typhus/Ahriman or marked lord/sorc made their appropriate cult elite into a troop choice?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackhawk748 View Post
    Being fair that started in 7th with Formations and all that stuff. Before that it worked as a limiter and most people didn't run the risk of actually maxing out their Force Org, then in 6th or so they started getting kinda crowded so they added Double Force Org at 2k points
    U wot m8? Writing your list by filling out heavy support slots then cramming everything else in around that has been a thing since forever. Hell, remember the sudden influx of IW armies when their 3.5 dex let them have a 4th HS slot for the total non-cost of only having 1 FA slot that nobody used anyway (and nobody played NL 'cause their slot swap was the other way 'round). Spamming the best units in the dex as much as you're allowed is definately not a new thing, it's been around since forever because that's just how people are.

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LansXero View Post
    Not at all. You have a knob on unit balance thats easier to turn than 'gets affected by character abilities'. By creating different / more detachments you increase or limite the availability of a certain unit, but less on an absolute sense (i.e. Rule of 3) and more in the context of units who'd perform similarly. Its a more nuanced, deeper aproach than this core nonsense, even if execution (what gets labeled what) isnt always perfect
    I think the two bits I’ve highlighted really get to the heart of the matter. What we’ve got is a designation that works in theory, but the labelling is off. I feel this is partially due to unit bloat: as Cheesegear highlights, this was introduced in 3rd edition, and almost every army has gained units since then, creating lots of very different options in each category, such that it’s difficult to say what each really means nowadays except for in the very broadest sense.

    This is all speculative of course, nothing is going to change. But if I were designing the game I’d be taking a good long look at the Force Org chart and wondering if there were other ways to achieve a similar result, or ensure it was pulling its weight. Having meaningful unit designations like Core would be one way, I’m sure there are others.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Drasius View Post


    Went into my local today, you can't buy a solid >60% of the SM range 'cause it's sold out. This weeks orders? Already sold out yesterday within 30 minutes of them arriving in store. You can buy anything else you want, except SM and SoB (though you can get Repentia and the Immolator and Exorcist online).

    SM are busted, even with the aura nerf and players know it.
    SM are getting entirely reboxed soon (the new necron boxes on certain old kits are in stores in the UK already), it's more likely just the usual pre-reboxing short supply.
    Last edited by LeSwordfish; 2020-09-18 at 03:07 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Although let's be honest: GW launching a new product and then catastrophically underestimating demand is absolutely a thing they have done repeatedly and are likely to do again.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Although let's be honest: GW launching a new product and then artificially creating demand by selling 100% of an undersupply, and then saying 'due to response, we totally listened to you guys, now give us social points #NewGW' is absolutely a thing they have done repeatedly and are likely to do again.
    Fixed that for you.
    Last edited by Cheesegear; 2020-09-18 at 03:08 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Although let's be honest: GW launching a new product and then catastrophically underestimating demand is absolutely a thing they have done repeatedly and are likely to do again.
    Relevantly, I was chatting to my local GW staffer the other week, and he said that Dark Imperium had sold something like 20,000 copies on release. So, knowing it was going to be an in demand, time limited product, GW made 180,000 copies of Indomitus. They expected that to last six months. It lasted 15 minutes. Assuming those figures are anywhere close to accurate, I don’t think the underestimate if demand was due to any lack of preparation on their part!
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Despite Cheesegear's well-warranted cynicism, there's still some conjecture over whether or not GW do it on purpose or are just really bad at business. Often it seems like a bit of both.

    There are some products that were deliberately under-produced - Space Hulk, for example, could have shifted at least double what they were offering on launch if only they'd bothered to take pre-orders before they stopped manufacturing. Instead they claimed "sold out!" like some great success, rather than a huge missed opportunity, and sat on it for 5 years before stirring up interest in a re-print.
    Which also sold out in 24 hours, because learning things from things that have already happened is hard, unless that's what you intended to do in the first place.

    But then there's the stuff you just described - GW don't seem to know their market and literally don't know what their customers want to buy until they buy it, at which point they're already on the back foot.
    Not that I expect them to spend their time trawling through forums and compiling excel sheets of every time someone says, "I wish I could buy [x] in the next release", but that would probably amount to more thorough market research than whatever it is that they're doing right now!
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    Despite Cheesegear's well-warranted cynicism, there's still some conjecture over whether or not GW do it on purpose or are just really bad at business. Often it seems like a bit of both.
    I think it’s somewhat deliberate, but not for reasons of creating false demand/being able to say ‘we sold out’ as a success story. Instead, it’s a product of GW being very conservative in its decision making: for a long time they’ve preferred to print only what they KNOW will sell, rather than what COULD sell. As a result, they don’t have a good idea of the upper limits of demand, so its difficult to predict how much of something like Indomitus will sell, as you have no prior comparators.

    The new warehousing facility they’re getting should help them be a bit less cautious, as they’ll have the space to store product. Plus, being increasingly willing to do stuff on ‘made to order’ Is good.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Avaris View Post
    I think it’s somewhat deliberate,
    Its 100% deliberate. Thats how production runs work, you dont 'accidentally' order more or less, quantities go through a bloated chain of decisions before the first mini even gets out of a mold.

    In the Indomitus example, they sacked a lot of other stuff to keep producing it through the lockdowns, staff cuts and covid measures. They capped stores at 45, then locked pre-orders the day before announcing their exclusive webstore bonuses, then once it was sold out they announced their made to order option. Thats a plan that only benefits GW at the detriment of independent stockists, but also wrecks scalpers so it was a good plan.

    but not for reasons of creating false demand/being able to say ‘we sold out’ as a success story. Instead, it’s a product of GW being very conservative in its decision making: for a long time they’ve preferred to print only what they KNOW will sell, rather than what COULD sell. As a result, they don’t have a good idea of the upper limits of demand, so its difficult to predict how much of something like Indomitus will sell, as you have no prior comparators.
    Thats absurd. Everyone in the chain, from managers to store owners to sales reps to sales managers knew Indomitus, as advertised, would be like printing money. Claiming that GW is an schoolboy club of naive mini sculptors is {Scrubbed}, go talk to the people in sales instead of the mummies at the design studio. They, for whatever reason, decided to throttle production and cap it despite tens (maybe hundreds) of stores wanting them to remove the cap on purchases long before the preorders even went public. Stores were throwing money at GW and locking 3 digit numbers as soon as the contents were previewed.

    The new warehousing facility they’re getting should help them be a bit less cautious, as they’ll have the space to store product. Plus, being increasingly willing to do stuff on ‘made to order’ Is good.
    'Made to order' is the worst cop out there is. Its like a kickstarter from an established manufacturer, pure and utter money wringing bullcrap.

    As for the out of stock stuff above, after the Indomitus mess GW culled their sales force and restocks for the US have been poor at best, favoring GW stores over stockists. We get our stuff from the UK and have been able to get pretty much anything we want, its just the US that gets shorted on things.
    Last edited by jdizzlean; 2020-10-15 at 05:17 PM. Reason: clean up

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LansXero View Post
    Thats absurd. Everyone in the chain, from managers to store owners to sales reps to sales managers knew Indomitus, as advertised, would be like printing money. Claiming that GW is an schoolboy club of naive mini sculptors is asinine, go talk to the people in sales instead of the mummies at the design studio. They, for whatever reason, decided to throttle production and cap it despite tens (maybe hundreds) of stores wanting them to remove the cap on purchases long before the preorders even went public. Stores were throwing money at GW and locking 3 digit numbers as soon as the contents were previewed.
    The point at which stores were putting orders in was weeks if not months too late for GW to do anything about the amount of stock they had. They had made their 180,000 copies, and couldn’t produce any more in time for release day. 180k was their estimate, it turned out to be woefully under, but the only remotely comparable data was Dark imperium, which sold far slower (and is a fundamentally different product), so I don’t think there is any way that the shortfall could have been predicted. It wasn’t throttling of production or anything like that, it was an unprecedented level of demand.

    What GW did make mistakes over was how they responded to it. As soon as the demand became clear they should have started looking into ensuring more supply was in line, and TELLING PEOPLE. The stock selling out in 15 minutes as people crash the website and a lot of people are left disappointed could have been avoided had they just said ‘we will make a second wave in a couple of months’.

    Incidentally, does anyone know if the second print run has started arriving with customers yet?
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LansXero View Post
    'Made to order' is the worst cop out there is. Its like a kickstarter from an established manufacturer, pure and utter money wringing bullcrap.
    I disagree; I think 'made to order' is a sign of an established business, failing.

    GW simply can't afford to overprint. I almost think that the price hike-during-recession (against any reasonable logic), is straight up a sign of desperation. No healthy business would've price hiked during a recession. They would have powered through it, because they would have been a healthy business. They had to price hike, because IMO they couldn't afford not to.
    They print a low number - on purpose. This is to guarantee they sell 100% stock. Now, why they need to guarantee sales on stock, is a good question. But not one that we, can answer.
    Due to fan outcry, they print more. However, with this second run, they know exactly how many they need. Because of the second-run, which was post-pre-ordered, they still sell 100% of stock.
    No matter what happens, GW sells out. Or, rather, they sell exactly as many as they plan to.

    Why can't GW just make the initial print run way, way higher?
    Because they can't guarantee sales. GW can't afford to be wrong.

    It's way easier, cheaper, and safer to make to order.

    I have no issues with 'made to order'.
    What I have a problem with is:
    "We listened to you, and now we're making more (with no financial risk on our end at all because you already paid for it!). We're such a good brand. You will defend us now, yes?"
    Last edited by Cheesegear; 2020-09-18 at 08:09 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    GW are doing better than Marks and Spencer, a high street name and one of the UK's biggest stores. They're the second best investment over the past decade, share prices up by about 2250%. They're doing so well they gave their covid bailout back to the government. By some standards, they're the UK's most successful business. Made To Order etc is definitely not because they're on the verge of failure.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    I would expect their low production practices is more to do with warehouse space. There's been enough kits they've made over the years that don't sell particularly well that I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of their existing warehouse space is full of low demand stock that has been there for years.

    Storage is expensive and doesn't make any money back, it's just a place to put things you already spent money on hoping it can be made back later, so any overflow stock that ends up warehoused is a negative investment.

    I'm also not sure how big their storage for outbound stock is, or what the lead time on manufacturing is. They don't make and ship miniatures from China, they come from one factory in Nottingham and have a breakneck release schedule. I wouldn't be surprised if they make all the miniatures for a given release months in advance and then have the factory start working on the stuff that'll come out the week after, and then the week after that and so on. All those items need stored prior to being shipped out, which is done what? A week before release?

    For context, their distribution center is only 100,000 sq feet, 150,000 post expansion. I used to work at an Amazon warehouse that was 93,000 sq feet and was within about an hours travel of two other facilities. GW is working with a very small amount of space considering the size of their business.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LeSwordfish View Post
    GW are doing better than Marks and Spencer, a high street name and one of the UK's biggest stores. They're the second best investment over the past decade, share prices up by about 2250%. They're doing so well they gave their covid bailout back to the government. By some standards, they're the UK's most successful business. Made To Order etc is definitely not because they're on the verge of failure.
    Yeah: they’re afraid of failure, being a very conservative company, but they’re nowhere near it. In the last 3 months they have declared dividends twice, and their most recent accounts showed they had £52.9m in cash available to the business, and no loans. For comparison, their revenue in the same year was £270m, so they could afford to take several months of no sales at all without running out of cash.

    The managerial conservatism is why they went ahead with a likely long planned price hike despite the pandemic: their modelling indicated those products were due a rise, and while they could afford to delay it, they didn’t want to eat into their reserves: they were afraid of the risk to the business of moving from the planned forecasts, the impact on customers didn’t come into it. They’re not our friend, but they’re not evil either, they’re behaving just as one would expect from what we know of the company.

    (Managerial conservatism doesn’t come into the Indomitus angle though. I have yet to see any evidence that they could possibly have predicted demand, or that they printed less than they could. They predicted their stock would last six months, their prediction was wrong, but I have yet to see any source of data that would have shown them that prior to committing to the print run, which would have been determined several months ahead of anyone outside the company knowing about it.)
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Avaris View Post
    In the last 3 months they have declared dividends twice, and their most recent accounts showed they had £52.9m in cash available to the business, and no loans. For comparison, their revenue in the same year was £270m, so they could afford to take several months of no sales at all without running out of cash.
    Bearing in mind that their royalties and licensing profit has tripled in the last year, and will continue to go up and up. Since licensing IP requires no investment on GW's part.

    They predicted their stock would last six months, their prediction was wrong...
    My guess is that they guessed that people would be hesitant to buy into Indomitus, before 9th Ed. was even out.
    My guess is that they didn't predict that so many people would be on board.

    (Un)fortunately, the silent majority always wins, I guess.

    EDIT: Anecdotally, everyone I know who currently own an Indomitus box - or two! - regrets it. But that's not GW's problem anymore.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Cheesegear View Post

    EDIT: Anecdotally, everyone I know who currently own an Indomitus box - or two! - regrets it. But that's not GW's problem anymore.
    What are they regretting about it OOI? All I've heard in the circles I’m in is high praises for the models in the set, very little criticism of that.

    Edit: in the interests of accuracy, the GW investor presentation says Royalty income in 2019-20 was £17m, up from £11m the year before. So a substantial increase, but not the tripling referred to, and fairly minor compared to the £270m direct sales
    Last edited by Avaris; 2020-09-18 at 09:37 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LeSwordfish View Post
    Made To Order etc is definitely not because they're on the verge of failure.
    Made To Order is a microcosm of the Boom-and-Bust culture of GW's bigger events, just like Space Hulk. Print a 'limited' number, create a big marketing buzz, sell them all, and give everyone else that Fear Of Missing Out so that in a little while you can announce a reprint and sell THEM all too. That way you can time it down to the 'slow' periods of the year and bump up sales where they're weakest, so that it looks nice and steady on the annual review.

    They have all the investment laid down, now they can milk it as often as they like by controlling it carefully. That's why Indomnitus sold out in a day when they could in theory have produced another 200,000 boxes and sold them too; because they don't WANT a huge bump in one month by shifting 400,000 boxes and then have no customers the next month, because everyone already has the box they wanted. What they want is a "successful launch" of 200,000 and then a guaranteed income for the next 3-6 months as they restock and continue to sell the boxes that people couldn't get earlier. 6 months of consistent sales from one product, rather than having to generate and then rely on a new big boom every month.

    Financially it's very shrewd, but it's also incredibly consumer unfriendly.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Avaris View Post
    What are they regretting about it OOI? All I've heard in the circles I’m in is high praises for the models in the set, very little criticism of that.

    Edit: in the interests of accuracy, the GW investor presentation says Royalty income in 2019-20 was £17m, up from £11m the year before. So a substantial increase, but not the tripling referred to, and fairly minor compared to the £270m direct sales
    Cheesegear's local group is pretty competitive, and a lot of the units in Indomitus are useless competitively, or tentatively obseleted by the upcoming releases (Multipart Eradicators can bring a multi-melta, Tripod Destroyers will likely be outshined by their Wraith version, etc.)
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Avaris View Post
    Managerial conservatism doesn’t come into the Indomitus angle though. I have yet to see any evidence that they could possibly have predicted demand,
    Forecasting demand is the top skill you need in this industry. You can make do with an ability to create demand, sure, but if you are disconnected from your consumer base you drown. Luckily, GW has an army of independent retailers who keep telling them what moves and what doesnt, despite the numbnuts who just grab 1 of each of the whole range because 'selection' and then whine when they have to burn them at a deep discount.

    That aside, there is no 'evidence' to be had other than a staff meeting transcript or whatever. But I shudder to think a company full of people who take my yearly income every month as a salary could not realize a bundle of the latest models for the most pushed factions who'd be the only ones getting updated rules in a reasonable time would not outsell an starter set that came on the tail end of the edition that almost causes End Times 40k. If you just look at a sales graph for the lifetime of 8th, saying 'Dark Imperium is our best data point' is such an inconceivable demostration of incompetence I feel insulted people can be not fired after uttering that. Even interns who finished grade school should be able to realize that 'market at the end of 7th' and 'market at the end of 8th' are entirely different things.

    So, instead of thinking multimillion companies hire stupid people, I choose to believe the scarcity was intended as to not outshine / canibalize sales of the starter line up that came right after.

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LansXero View Post
    Forecasting demand is the top skill you need in this industry. You can make do with an ability to create demand, sure, but if you are disconnected from your consumer base you drown. Luckily, GW has an army of independent retailers who keep telling them what moves and what doesnt, despite the numbnuts who just grab 1 of each of the whole range because 'selection' and then whine when they have to burn them at a deep discount.

    That aside, there is no 'evidence' to be had other than a staff meeting transcript or whatever. But I shudder to think a company full of people who take my yearly income every month as a salary could not realize a bundle of the latest models for the most pushed factions who'd be the only ones getting updated rules in a reasonable time would not outsell an starter set that came on the tail end of the edition that almost causes End Times 40k. If you just look at a sales graph for the lifetime of 8th, saying 'Dark Imperium is our best data point' is such an inconceivable demostration of incompetence I feel insulted people can be not fired after uttering that. Even interns who finished grade school should be able to realize that 'market at the end of 7th' and 'market at the end of 8th' are entirely different things.

    So, instead of thinking multimillion companies hire stupid people, I choose to believe the scarcity was intended as to not outshine / canibalize sales of the starter line up that came right after.
    I don’t know what was said internally at GW obviously, but it’s pretty clear they went beyond ‘Dark Imperium is our best datapoint’ (which are my words, not theirs: I’m highlighting that it’s the closest comparable product, I don’t know how that data was used internally). They reportedly produced 9 times as much Indomitus as was sold for DI at launch: they were clearly prepared for a massively popular release. I expect that number was based on the data available, and the understanding from stores etc, as you say.

    And you’re right: the game at launch of 9th is much larger than at launch of 8th. But how many times? Twice as big? Three times? Nine times feels an overestimate, but that’s what it’d be implying if they solely went ratio to DI sales!

    They printed 9 times as much product as they sold for their previous most popular starter box within a month of release. If they’d produced the same amount, or slightly higher, yeah, that’d be incompetence. But it’s quite clear to me that they DID anticipate high levels of demand, and they DID produce what they thought was sufficient product. That that estimate proved to be wrong does not indicate a scarcity conspiracy.

    Edit: genuine question though: how much would people estimate the hobby grew through 8th? I doubt it’s ten times as big now, but if that is your genuine experience I’d happily accept that the scarcity could have been predicted!
    Last edited by Avaris; 2020-09-18 at 11:59 AM.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Avaris View Post
    I don’t know what was said internally at GW obviously, but it’s pretty clear they went beyond ‘Dark Imperium is our best datapoint’ (which are my words, not theirs: I’m highlighting that it’s the closest comparable product, I don’t know how that data was used internally). They reportedly produced 9 times as much Indomitus as was sold for DI at launch: they were clearly prepared for a massively popular release. I expect that number was based on the data available, and the understanding from stores etc, as you say.

    And you’re right: the game at launch of 9th is much larger than at launch of 8th. But how many times? Twice as big? Three times? Nine times feels an overestimate, but that’s what it’d be implying if they solely went ratio to DI sales!

    They printed 9 times as much product as they sold for their previous most popular starter box within a month of release. If they’d produced the same amount, or slightly higher, yeah, that’d be incompetence. But it’s quite clear to me that they DID anticipate high levels of demand, and they DID produce what they thought was sufficient product. That that estimate proved to be wrong does not indicate a scarcity conspiracy.

    Edit: genuine question though: how much would people estimate the hobby grew through 8th? I doubt it’s ten times as big now, but if that is your genuine experience I’d happily accept that the scarcity could have been predicted!
    I think my point got lost.

    Comparing DI to Indomitus is bad because of the different timing, but also (and I shouldn'tve had to write this) because Indomitus ISNT A STARTER. Its not going on the BS ranges, its not evergreen it has no planned reprint run, etc. Their closest similar item would be either the Battle Sisters Box or the Lumineth Realmlords box: a Limited edition Launch Box thats once and done. DI's parallel is Command Edition, which trades minis for terrain and a full rulebook for a tiny pamphlet so we'll see how well it does. Interestingly, Command ISNT on the BS:F range so how evergreen it'll be also remains to be seen.

    So, however much GW printed they did so with a full understanding that it had to run out because thats what it was designed for. They also underestimated demand even in that context, as evidenced by their site blowing up, but there is no reason whatsoever to believe it was planned to be anything but a short boom! to get people hyped.

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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by LansXero View Post
    So, instead of thinking multimillion companies hire stupid people...
    Lans, I have alot of respect for you, but don't you think that is a tad too optimistic?

    Companies frequently hire stupid people. There are many MANY reasons why, but probably the most frequent is that they share the opinions of the people hiring them.
    Even when they manage to hire smart people, an insular group of smart people can still compound each others errors, get trapped by recursive-thinking, and wander away from reality into lala-land.

    Remember, this is the company who until very recently had a CEO who was proud of not knowing why their customers bought their products.
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    Default Re: Warhammer 40K Tabletop Thread XL: Bloated Rules

    Quote Originally Posted by Voidhawk View Post
    Lans, I have alot of respect for you, but don't you think that is a tad too optimistic?

    Companies frequently hire stupid people. There are many MANY reasons why, but probably the most frequent is that they share the opinions of the people hiring them.
    Even when they manage to hire smart people, an insular group of smart people can still compound each others errors, get trapped by recursive-thinking, and wander away from reality into lala-land.

    Remember, this is the company who until very recently had a CEO who was proud of not knowing why their customers bought their products.
    But thats the thing, they have a history of doing that. So they retired that CEO and moved on to make a lot of changes, so even if their staff isnt all that, they are aware of it. Same as with BL getting all writers together for the heresy books, they know (probably always did) how they keep pushing inconcistencies and lately tried to care. I think they are for the most part competent; their US sales force keeps churning people but my UK rep is tied for the best I've worked with and I have accounts on a ton of US distributors.

    As for the main subject (availability of product on release) I doubt any of it is the result of incompetence or cautiousness. Why sell discounted sets when full-option boxes exist? Why make more Indomitus when Command Editions will exist, and also full option kits of the units within? I'd go with what somebody else said: Business smart, consumer unfriendly.

    Oddly enough GW is increasing in sales despite the (in my opinion) lackluster mess that 9th is. How much of it is stores pivoting to miniatures with TCGs and Boardgames being reduced due to the virus and market correction and how much its actually sustainable demand is something that remains unclear, but I'll admit I didnt expect such a surge. But then, I didnt expect Puzzles, of all things, to be stellar sellers to the point where manufacturers keep running out of stock, so clearly I dont understand casuals and their spending habits.
    Last edited by LansXero; 2020-09-18 at 12:34 PM.

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