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Thread: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-17, 09:10 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Witch Hunt!
I'm Survivalist (in case that wasn't clear).
So that leaves:
Vampire Hunter
Priest
Acolyte
Junior Witch
For the players:
Apogee
Bunny of Faith
gac (dead)
Valmark (dead)
Hopefully either of them comes in with a claim, but I don't see counterclaims to Traveler or Judge. Maybe we got lucky and Junior Witch is already dead but as long as one of Bunny of Faith/Apogee shows up to vote we'll be in OK shape.
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2020-08-17, 09:39 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: Witch Hunt!
I was trying not to call out what was left, just to make those last two actually have to do some effort to come up with a claim if they were fake claiming. Might have made it easier to catch them (especially Bunny of Faith with the spotty showing). And it wasn't exactly obvious you were Survivalist Cao, as you could have been Traveler and survived, but it is nice to hear that AV's claim has not be countered up to now. It was an early claim, and they did flip flop if I am remembering correctly from one fake claim to their current claim, but we'll see. I guess if the acolyte is still alive, they should claim and confirm who the priest was. There is a chance the JW is already dead as the witches have fired 2 blind shots and killed two non-witch-core people. We'll find out for sure after we kill Xi.
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2020-08-17, 09:45 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
That was JeenLeen you're thinking of. JeenLeen claimed traveler, and then claimed spy, and then outed themselves as Werewolf. I have never claimed anything other than Traveler.
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If you can link to where I claimed something else, that'd be great.
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2020-08-17, 09:50 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
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Re: Witch Hunt!
Yea, I was going back and searching, but hadn't found it. So your explanation sounds right. Thanks for helping me clear it up.
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2020-08-17, 09:52 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
What if you decide not to kill me?
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2020-08-17, 09:54 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: Witch Hunt!
It's not like you'll die the first time we lynch you anyways, so you have that agonizing torture to look forward to first
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2020-08-17, 10:28 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
I have a good deal to say today and potentially tomorrow but first I'd like a claim from Apogee1. And preferably from Bunny of Faith as well, but I have realistic expectations of their participation.
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For now all I'll say is that voting Xihirli might actually be the wrong move today.
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2020-08-17, 10:33 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: Witch Hunt!
I can see that, if we can figure out the other witch, it would be better to go ahead and kill them, but without a better option, I would rather definitely get 1 lynch on Xi than shoot in the dark at Apogee1 or Bunny of Faith.
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2020-08-17, 10:34 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
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2020-08-17, 10:39 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Killing Xihirli is the optimal play here. It also makes victory 100% luck-based. We either got lucky with who the Junior Witch is and win, or we didn't and we lose, and there's nothing to be done about that.
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I'm also debating just spelling out everything because I'm fairly certain the witch(es) will have already thought this through to this degree, and so there's no reason not to discuss it amongst us townies.
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(especially since the three of us are online right now at least, and I can count on one of you being town.)
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Decided against discussing things in detail, to avoid any misinformation campaigns. If we're already screwed, then that's that, and trying to outguess the Junior Witch to unscrew us is a shot in the dark at best. If witches are in position to win despite Werewolf and Spy setting them up to be utterly screwed, then they've probably earned it at this point. Although...
...I do appreciate the misdirection attempt.
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2020-08-17, 11:29 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Witch Hunt!
Cool cool sorry for not checking in earlier
I'm acolyte.
The seer is gac3 who unfortunately died n1
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Yeah going outside of Xihirli could be better in some circumstances.
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2020-08-17, 11:32 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2015
- Location
- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-17, 11:32 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
- Gender
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2020-08-17, 11:34 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-17, 11:35 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-17, 11:37 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2016
- Gender
Re: Witch Hunt!
Even if it was, JW shouldn't know the witches until they join, and Elenna would have told us who if they joined before she was sacrificed.
EDIT:
Yea if Valmark is then JW's been killed and we will win with Xi's death, If BoF is then they haven't posted anything since the first and likely won't NK when they need to and we will win by process of elimination. However if one the remaining actives has correctly fake claimed then we are in big trouble. Cao is pretty well confirmed, so that leaves Apogee or AV as the only other possible witches. AV claimed early when JL was fishing for who to devour and was never countered, so that makes them pretty well a lock. However there is no way to verify Apogee as gac3 was killed N1 and so it could just be a convenient guess.Last edited by rogue_alchemist; 2020-08-17 at 11:42 AM.
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2020-08-17, 11:39 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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2020-08-17, 11:54 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Witch Hunt!
OK, so we have a claimed Acolyte, meaning Apogee is definitely either Acolyte or Junior Witch.
If we are lynching Xi anyway, do the four of us want to end the day now with the first lynch on Xi? Or is there more to discuss?
I'd still like a claim from Bunny, but not exactly expecting that.
Now that I've claimed - yeah, my post early on Day 2 was to make myself look like the Judge (aka make myself a night kill target).
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Actually, @AV there's one more way we can feel confident on someone at the beginning of tomorrow if we do something funny today. It shouldn't matter given that Xi won't die immediately anyway. I'm leaning on trusting everyone who has claimed so far but are you thinking what I'm thinking? If so, do we mind doing that?
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Safer play is just to go through with the lynch, but not sure if I'm missing something that could help.
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2020-08-17, 12:41 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
I'm thinking a bunch of things. I think last night's target was either scumteam doubting my claim and searching for the real Traveler, or scumteam thinking my claim is valid and trying to cast shade on me for the coming days. I mean, I know I'm the traveler, and I think it's fairly self-evident that my claim is true if you think about it, which is why I posted before about how I think the kill was attempted misdirection.
I think things would be very simple for us if everybody is telling the truth, because that means BoF is the JW and the game is actually kinda over already. But...yes, I did think of something that could qualify as "funny".
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Spoiler: Important quotes in ordergac3 dies in the night without a sacrifice victim. Can't be the Traveler.
JeenLeen: "I'm the Traveler."
AV: "You know, if townies were claiming honestly, we could run the game."
JeenLeen: "Correct. I look forward to seeing how town reacts to my claim."
AV: "Ah, so you understand that I'm counterclaiming you, good."
This is (part of) why the claim switched to spy.
[/quote]
When he switched his claim, I made my claim explicit - both because if he's actually the spy, I thought mass-claiming was town's key to victory, and because if he's not, it makes him think my claim is a gambit just like his. And that's exactly how it turned out: the liar thought the other public claim was a lie too, and took his shot elsewhere, and missed.
But everything going on with JeenLeen is ancient history, what's important here is the timing of my claim. There's only dead player is gac3 (who can't be the Traveler), and it's still early enough that Snowblaze was still here-ish, and we didn't know for sure that BoF would be inactive for the rest of the game. So considering those circumstances, if this post was made by the Junior Witch:
...then I was basically throwing the game on a whim, for no reason. Admittedly, as I said myself in my "mass-claim" strategy post, a hail mary claim like that is basically the JW's only chance to avoid getting taken down with the witch-team by the spy and WW going public. But it's super-risky, and (as this example shows) basically a super-long shot, a huge risk with limited reward. But even if one were to assume that's what happened, and my JW fakeclaim guess did happen to be extremely lucky, that I guessed gac's role, then why would Apogee be lying right now?
If my longshot guess about the Traveler worked out for me, it's because Bunny of Faith is the Traveler and has never been around to counterclaim me (or JeenLeen, for that matter). But even if we assume that's the case...why would I guess Traveler? There are safer roles to fake-claim than basically the one role most likely to end up in the Final 3. And that still requires that I decided taking an absurd risk on the off-chance it gives me a slight chance to win the game.
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2020-08-17, 01:25 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Witch Hunt!
Ok I'm probably late to this but:
AV and Cao with the survivalist/traveler claims are just always town right?
Because Cao survived a night kill
And the traveler can't be dead.
Unless BoF was traveler but that's a heck of a fakeclaim to make then
Rogue_Alchemist is probably just judge. Valmark could? have? been? but I don't see a way he doesn't submit a n1 kill
If Bunny is judge that is very unfortunate and RA could actually be making a solid fake here as Junior Witch
Unless you think Gac/Valmark were exactly Seer/Acolyte in some combination I should be confirmed as well
Because otherwise either of those roles could cc me
So it's just Xihirli/Bunny right with a tinge of a chance of it being RA
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2020-08-17, 01:26 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
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2020-08-17, 01:31 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: Witch Hunt!
I think we have everything we can nailed down, so the only thing left is to hammer Xi and wait. If after D5 we haven't won, we'll have to revisit this and see what happens. N5 will tell us if BoF is the JW or not (no kill, then BoF), otherwise one of us has been lying and it'll be difficult to figure out who because all the claims are pretty solid. I have the most trouble with Apogee, he has the most trouble with me, so likely it'll come down to figuring that out, but hopefully this is already wrapped up nicely and we can just coast on the pre-laid plans.
But we need to vote and get this going.
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2020-08-17, 01:35 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
Unvote for the moment.
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2020-08-17, 01:36 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: Witch Hunt!
But he also waited to claim last. We know Xi is a witch, AV claimed Traveler (could have been fake to try to catch someone, but that comes off pretty scummy so bad idea overall), Cao is narrator confirmed through lack of dying to be town (could have faked which one to try to catch someone, but I don't see the point), so Apogee actually has a pretty good chance to just slide in. The choices left were Vampire Hunter or Acolyte/Priest. Obviously no one fake claiming would claim Priest because that has some provable mechanics. Vampire Hunter isn't a nice choice either because it is the one useless townie. That leaves claiming Acolyte and picking on the of the dead guys to be priest. We have no proof one way or another.
Now all that being said, I don't think Valmark was priest based on their posts, and Gac3 was hinting that he knew more, but mechanically it would be easy to fake claim that roll.
We can also test my claim by letting the vote expire without a consensus, but if I was fake claiming then that would hand over the game to the witches. I don't think we should do this, but I am just pointing out that there is a mechanic to test every roll but the one that Apogee claimed.Last edited by rogue_alchemist; 2020-08-17 at 01:39 PM.
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2020-08-17, 01:40 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Witch Hunt!
You realize that to be a witch here and claim acolyte with the seer being Gac3
I'd have to be confident that {Valmark, Gac3, BoF} contains both the seer and the acolyte.
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Yeah I'm pretty dialed in on BoF myself
What will be nice though is in f3 we will have a pretty much confirmed town in AV if there even is a kill to go to f3 instead of f4.
VOTE:Xihirli
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Admittedly with what you all claimed this would have been easier from a witch POV
But I'd still be exposing myself to more risk if BoF ever showed up
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Part one of me softing Gac as town
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Part 2: In reply to Gac talking about what the seer should do
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Part 3:
My first line after gac died n1
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2020-08-17, 01:51 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
You know we aren't witches, so you'd think you could trust our claims. That leaves three unclaimed people (the three you just mentioned) and three unclaimed roles (the two you just mentioned plus Vampire Hunter). It's not a difficult claim for a Junior Witch to make, and that's kinda exactly why I wanted mass claim to happen days ago.
But I'm inclined to trust claims, because...uh...well this is kinda awkward but...
Scenarios:
Apogee1 is JW
Today: lynch Xihirli, who survives. 4* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
Tonight: NK Judge claimant. 3* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
Tomorrow: No lynch, because 2v2 with bunny absent and judge was NK'd. 3* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
That night: NK townie. 2* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
This...doesn't work out for us. At all. Like, this turn of events only really works out for us if (on top of Apogee lying) RA is also lying about being Judge, and I am the actual Judge (and thus, also lying, and have been for days). I'm obviously not lying (I showed that lying would've been really stupid for me), so we can conclude that if Apogee is the JW, and we lynch Xihirli, we're ****ed. but if instead we lynch Apogee1...
Today: lynch Apogee1. 4* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
Tonight: NK judge claimant. 3* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
Tomorrow: lynch Xihirli, who survives. 3* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
That night: NK townie. 2* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
That day: No lynch, because 1v1 with Bunny absent and Judge NK'd.
...we're still ****ed even if we vote the JW.
Bunny of Faith is JW
Today: lynch Xihirli, who survives. 4 town v 2* witch (1 absent).
Tonight: NK townie. 3 town vs 2* witch (1 absent).
Tomorrow: lynch Xihiril. 3 town vs 1* witch.
That night: No NK cuz Bunny is absent (unless poked). 3* town vs 1* witch.
That day: We lynch the obvious JW.
That's it, we've basically won. We maybe psych ourselves out if Aventine pokes Bunny and Bunny shows up to do the kill, but that should've happened long before now. More likely, Bunny is just absent from the forum entirely, and (in this scenario) it's just one more way that everything went wrong for the witches.
rogue_alchemist is JW
Today: lynch Xihirli, who survives. 4* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
Tonight: NK townie. 3* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
Tomorrow: No lynch, because 2v2 with bunny absent and judge was NK'd (was Valmark). 3* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
That night: NK townie. 2* town (1 absent) vs 2 witch.
Once again, voting Xihirli means we're screwed. But also...
Today: lynch rogue_alchemist. 4* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
Tonight: NK townie. 3* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
Tomorrow: lynch Xihirli, who survives. 3* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
That night: NK townie. 2* town (1 absent) vs 1 witch.
That day: No lynch, because 1v1 with Bunny absent and Judge NK'd.
...once again, even if we lynch the correct JW, we're still screwed because the Judge dies/is already dead, and the townie that could hit majority is absent. Whoops!
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Can any of you find fault with my reasoning here? Like...if RA or A1 is the JW, then town's only chance is that the witches decide to target me, assuming that I did in fact fakeclaim Traveler as bait for the wolf, and Bunny is the actual Traveler. But like...that's not gonna happen, so we're just screwed if Bunny's not the JW, right?
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2020-08-17, 01:54 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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2020-08-17, 02:00 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
I agree that I think Bunny is the most likely JW. If the JW had hooked up with Xihirli last night, I'd be expecting more activity and mindscrewing from her today, and instead she's still pretty checked out.
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2020-08-17, 02:00 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2016
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Re: Witch Hunt!
yea that is basically what I saw as the witches best chances, but again, I was trying to avoid handing it to them what they should do just in case. But with the game decided this way, we could confirm my role by not voting. Because if I am fake claiming, you've already lost, and if I'm not that would have 3 town-lock that we can go forward with against {Apogee, BoF}
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2020-08-17, 02:04 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Witch Hunt!
The issue is, if you're telling the truth, but Apogee isn't, town is screwed anyway. If Apogee is telling the truth, but you're not, town is screwed anyway. And there's basically nothing that can actually be done about that other than hope the witches are incompetent. The only scenario we come out ahead in is where lynching Xihirli is the right move because the JW is the absent player. Going for No Lynch today only confirms whether the judge is alive or dead, not that you specifically are the judge, though.
I mean, I'm fine going No Lynch or voting Xihirli. Xihirli loses a life either way, unless you're lying in which case this is all scum theatre anyway.
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