Witch Hunt!

[Aventine]

Whoops, screwed up the colouring on that unvote. For clarity, I'll just do UNVOTE; Vote AvatarVecna again.

Don't stress too much about including the unvote if you're switching to a new vote in the same post. It's more about making sure there is a way to remove a vote without adding a new one. Normally you can just go back and cross out the old vote, but with editing not allowed and "no lynch" being meaningful in it's own right, there needs to be a way to clearly indicate that you want to just remove your vote.

[gac3]

What I see as the biggest problem is there is no way to know if the werewolf dies. I'm sitting here thinking "when would it be safe for anyone to try to claim." The issue is, the werewolf makes it never safe to claim. If they didn't get a kill immunity then it wouldn't matter but now claiming almost makes it feel like if I were to claim (at any point in the future, not now of course) then I would then need to be lynched that day so we still have a hope of killing the werewolf.

[Valmark]

Yeah, we can't really mass-claim ever. I predict there will be a lot of paranoia when deaths start piling up and we have no idea how close we are to losing or winning.

I hope Snowblaze survives for long. Her reaction to this kind of paranoia will be fun to see :p

Yeah you can lynch me for what I just said, Snow. I'll understand.

[Xihirli]

Yeah, this game is a whole new animal.
A cute animal!

[Aventine]

There are about 42 hours until day ends and the lynch is passed to the judge

Vote Count (7 required for majority)
AvatarVecna: 2 (Snowblaze, Elenna)
Valmark: 2 (Bunny, Xihirli)
Unavenger: 2 (Valmark, JeenLeen)
JeenLeen: 1 (rogue_alchemist)
Snowblaze: 1 (AV)
Caoimhin: 1 (gac3)
No Lynch: 1 (Unavenger)

Not voting: 3 (Apgoee, JonnyPatches, Caoimhin)

[Snowblaze]

I hope Snowblaze survives for long. Her reaction to this kind of paranoia will be fun to see :p

Yeah you can lynch me for what I just said, Snow. I'll understand.

...*internal screaming*

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Disagree with Unavenger’s logic, but still think they’re town.

I would appreciate it if AV could actually do stuff this game, even without QTs.

I scumread rogue_alchemist, but you may want to take that with a large pinch of salt given I’ve scumread rogue_alchemist in every single game we’ve played together and unlike with Valmark, I have no better way to read him yet.

Xihirli is Xihirli.

Valmark I don’t have a read on yet. I haven’t seen the “spark of towniness” yet but it’s early enough that I don’t mind giving him some time.

And this is getting dangerously close to a day one reads list, which after Jellicle Ball I should know better than to make, so I’ll stop there.

[JeenLeen]

I do agree that AV's silence seems shifty, and Unavenger is acting like they've acted when town before...
So
UNVOTE Unavenger
VOTE AvatarVecna

Though I do reckon it will be the Judge's decision this Day.

What I see as the biggest problem is there is no way to know if the werewolf dies. I'm sitting here thinking "when would it be safe for anyone to try to claim." The issue is, the werewolf makes it never safe to claim. If they didn't get a kill immunity then it wouldn't matter but now claiming almost makes it feel like if I were to claim (at any point in the future, not now of course) then I would then need to be lynched that day so we still have a hope of killing the werewolf.

I think there is one safe claim werewolf-wise, but it is probably anti-Town all-in-all: if the Spy is the Junior Witch, they could claim before joining the witches (so can't be sacrificed) and still be immune to devouring. But then they'd probably be NKed by the witches as a confirmed townie... and it lets the witches trust each other... so all-in-all a REALLY bad town move.

I've been thinking of a couple Judge/claim schemes that might work, but both sound terribly boring and might not work (in both the sense of 'not sure if the math works out such that it could get victory' and 'there are chances it could fail even if the math is sound').

I'll share them for food for thought. But note I am not recommending them unless someone can prove it should work out.
Scheme A: Massclaim Everyone claim. The werewolf and witches will fakeclaim, of course, but that gives 5 duplicates (4 if the Spy claims Spy honest) due to baddie fakeclaims. We then systemtically go through the lynches to kill the baddies. Presumably the werewolf also tries to get immunity by killing a dup.
This could easily give the game to the werewolf unless they are unlucky in picking a dup, and the witches don't take it out the moment at first opportunity.

Scheme B: Judge Leads
If we let the Judge control the kill, I think odds favor the Judge killing the witches randomly before the witches kill the town.
The big downside is that the Judge might be randomly killed by the witches. And we probably don't learn that the Judge died until the No Lynch has no kill (though the Warlock, Survivalist, or Werewolf might mislead us.)
Also, this is really boring as it's basically us all doing nothing.
This fails if the Judge dies, and also fails if the Judge is Lover with the Werewolf (but that seems very unlikely, so probably best to assume the Lovers are Town). I reckon it's a bad plan in that it will set up the witches to win once the Judge dies randomly, with the surviving Town having almost no info to find the baddies. So this is probably giving the game to the witches.

[rogue_alchemist]

I will distinguish a Judge kill from Night Kill(s).

I think since the Judge kill will get distinguished from Night Kills, we won't be fulled by Warlock, Survivalist, or Werewolf after a no lynch if the judge is dead. I mean it'll basically give 1 day with no lynch kill when the judge hasn't acted, but otherwise Scheme B reads pretty sound to me. I am against massclaims as that'll just pave the way for the baddies to win. There is no great way to do this. Scheme B is very similar to Plan D from earlier.

For Aventine:
How long is night phase?

[JeenLeen]

I think since the Judge kill will get distinguished from Night Kills, we won't be fulled by Warlock, Survivalist, or Werewolf after a no lynch if the judge is dead. I mean it'll basically give 1 day with no lynch kill when the judge hasn't acted, but otherwise Scheme B reads pretty sound to me.

While true, I doubt everyone will be on board with waiting one day to confirm the Judge really is still alive. And such waiting is probably handing the game to the witches, as it means an extra kill for them with no action by Town. Even worse, if some of the town is voting and are No Lynch, the witches might be able to control the vote (by joining a wagon 'just for the sake of doing something, maybe we hit a witch') and make sure a townie dies.

There is no great way to do this.

I agree.
While it's fun to think of detailed plans, schemes, and shenanigans, it's rather hard to think of ones that actually work. Even moreso ones that work if not everybody plays along.

I just realized another reason the massclaim idea is bad: we don't know if a witch died.
Like, if both the Assassin and Priest claim Priest, and we lynch one, we'd need to lynch the other to be sure we got the witch, since roles aren't revealed. (This is a bad example as an Acolyte could help, but I hope you get the idea.) The werewolf would probably help the town in this respect, in that their devour attempts could help narrow down the dups; they'd likely fakeclaim to start, but they get outted once they devour, so pretty soon we'd likely know who they are.
Hmm... and the werewolf would basically need to try to devour once massclaims happen, since the witches would know which of the dup pairs contains the werewolf.
So, yeah, likely hands the game to the werewolf still.

[Xihirli]

But if the judge judgeth not, shall we be the judge?

Ghandi said that.

[Valmark]

But if the judge judgeth not, shall we be the judge?

Ghandi said that.

He either played too little Werewolf or too much.

[Aventine]

For Aventine:
How long is night phase?

24 hours for the night itself is my current plan. The complicating factor is that several roles can act during phase transitions (martyr, judge and vengeful bastard). Getting prompt responses from them will keep things moving, but if they are slow that slows things down. I'll say that I encourage standing orders. If, say, it looks like the day will end with no lynch and the judge already knows who they'll target, it could be useful for the judge to post their choice in QT before EOD. That way if they're not around when I end the day, I know who's dying anyway and can tell them they're dead and move things along. Martyr and bastard are more difficult, but conditional orders (such as "if I die, kill X" for the bastard) help.

[JeenLeen]

But if the judge judgeth not, shall we be the judge?

To be pedantic when no answer is needed, no.

Any day with no lynch, either because of a failure to reach a majority or because the majority vote was for “no lynch,” you may chose a player to die.

So the Judge can decide to judge or judge not, but there's no passing of Judge powers if they judge not. Just no lynching.

Though, on a more serious note, your joke-question did make me wonder if the Judge's power was optional or not. But I see it is optional. Presumably they can choose No Lynch as the Judge, or just them not responding means they don't activate their power.

But to continue answering: if the Judge persistently judges not, it likely means the judge is dead or ghosted. Regardless, if the Judge judges not, we better start judging lest the witches kill us all.

[Elenna]

Gonna try to restart discussion with another strategy question: if the Priest gets an "evil" result, should they claim? What about multiple "evil" results?

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Like, in normal play, even without a doctor I'd say a trade of seer for mafia is a good one. But here there's the added risk of giving the werewolf a devour target. IMO it's still worth it for the Priest to claim, especially if it's early enough that they'll probably be witch-killed before the werewolf exposes themselves to start devouring people, but I'm curious what others think.

[Valmark]

Giving the werewolf a devour target isn't too much of a risk, honestly. I mean a single one. If they devour they'd get exposed.

There is to say that no way to confirm which role died every time is what really bothers me. Sure, it's a decent exchange, but not so good if there's like, 5 Town remaining and all 4 witches alive. And the Werewolf. Because that's really the only problem, we could mass-claim if it wasn't for them and ferret out the witches easy.

[JeenLeen]

Gonna try to restart discussion with another strategy question: if the Priest gets an "evil" result, should they claim? What about multiple "evil" results?

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Like, in normal play, even without a doctor I'd say a trade of seer for mafia is a good one. But here there's the added risk of giving the werewolf a devour target. IMO it's still worth it for the Priest to claim, especially if it's early enough that they'll probably be witch-killed before the werewolf exposes themselves to start devouring people, but I'm curious what others think.

If the Priest has 2 evils scried, I think it'd be worth it to reveal. Maybe the werewolf devours them, but, then again, if we act quickly on the intel, we might be able to force the game to Night before the werewolf gets to use their power.
If it's just 1 evil scried, not so sure. Probably worth it. It outs the werewolf (assuming they devour the Priest), but then the werewolf will likely be vulnerable to the witches sooner than later. Might actually be worthwhile: the longer we go into the game, the more intel there will be to help the werewolf guess who is what role, and the more likely the werewolf will be able to chain devours. If he eats the priest D2, it's less likely he'll get a good chain going.

On a similar note, if someone who is NOT the priest is saying they are the priest and know a potential lynchee is , it might be worthwhile for the Acolyte to proclaim "That ain't the priest." Less sure about that one, though.

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Realized a typo: for if 1 evil, I meant "if it outs the werewolf", probably still worth it. It seems definitely worth it if it hits a witch, but potentially worth it if the werewolf, just I'm less sure.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Gonna try to restart discussion with another strategy question: if the Priest gets an "evil" result, should they claim? What about multiple "evil" results?

I'd leave it up to the priest, but it probably depends on their standing with the town. If they feel they would die from the town or witches soon I would suggest claiming so we don't lose the info.

If they can manage 2 evils I would claim and call them out. We have 3 Witches and 1 Wolf. Either way, Wolf will likely out themselves rather than being lynched and Spy can fill in any missing Evils once we think the Wolf is gone.

If they ever do need to end up claiming, I assume the Martyr can't jump in time to save them from the Wolf?

If the Priest has 2 evils scried, I think it'd be worth it to reveal. Maybe the werewolf devours them, but, then again, if we act quickly on the intel, we might be able to force the game to Night before the werewolf gets to use their power.

That's also true, even if the priest reveals the town has a chance to end the Day quickly before the Wolf can chow down.

---

Similar note, the Spy should let us know if we every get to LyLo. Even if we suspect the Wolf is still around, being outnumbered by the Witches means that we'll have to rely on the Wolf to kill them and then have the Wolf guess one of the townies wrong so they are vulnerable.

---

So, I'm going to Vote: AvatarVecna partly to throw down a vote and partly to push someone relatively close to a lynch. Curious to see if anyone jumps in to save AV, anyone jumps in to hammer, or what the judge will do if someone is a clear vote leader.

As for actual suspicions, I don't have anyone as necessarily evil yet. Lacking that, AV isn't one of my townreads so I'm OK putting them in a more dangerous position right now. Only 1 post to vote Snow so far.


Vote Count (7 required for majority)
AvatarVecna: 4 (Snowblaze, Elenna, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape)
Valmark: 2 (Bunny, Xihirli)
Unavenger: 1 (Valmark)
JeenLeen: 1 (rogue_alchemist)
Snowblaze: 1 (AV)
Caoimhin: 1 (gac3)
No Lynch: 1 (Unavenger)

Not voting: 2 (Apgoee, JonnyPatches)

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Apogee1 ISO

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Sup everyone

Internet access might be spotty for me for a couple of days cause a storm knocked out a bunch of lines and data is overworked.

I'll come back and drop a bunch of mechanics thoughts in the threads later.

NAI.

Null lean. Nothing to go on.

Spoiler: Bunny of Faith ISO

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Super secret vampire role confirmed.

Valmark, so we've got two people with two votes. Still not sure I get how to do D1 correctly, but as I understand it you point at people to get them to say stuff, to have information for later days? (Based on what they say, and how other people vote)

NAI. That's a good summary, and thus far I'm not very optimistic.

Can't be lynched, that doesn't make them immune to the witch NK? Only if they successfully devour somebody, at which point the witches can sacrifice to get through it. It also says in the role that the Vengeful Bastard can take them down, and if they have a lover then lynching them kills the Werewolf.

NAI. Essentially, yes.

Null lean. Basically nothing to go on, just a couple posts clarifying mechanical issues.

Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape ISO

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That's fair but you're unlikely to get much out of me right now. Power went out at my house yesterday, and no idea when it will come back. Until then I don't expect to post too much.



My first instinct was to agree with Unavenger, that No Lynch is a safe place to vote (especially on Day 1) but Elenna makes some good points for why it's better to vote and avoid majority, if that's what we decide to do. I'm leaning town on both of them.



Other than that, I don't have any particular reads to act on yet so I'm not putting a vote down.




Vote Count (7 to Lynch)

Unavenger (2): Elenna, Valmark
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (1): Xihirli
AvatarVecna (1): Snowblaze
CaoimhinTheCape (1): gac3
JeenLeen (1): rogue_alchemist
No Lynch (1): Unavenger
No Vote: CaoimhinTheCape


No Posts: Apogee1, JeenLeen, Bunny of Faith, JonnyPatches

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Ninja'd, but I can't edit a post.

Vote Count (7 to Lynch)

Unavenger (2): Elenna, Valmark
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (2): Xihirli, Bunny of Faith
AvatarVecna (1): Snowblaze
CaoimhinTheCape (1): gac3
JeenLeen (1): rogue_alchemist
No Lynch (1): Unavenger
No Vote: CaoimhinTheCape


No Posts: Apogee1, JeenLeen, JonnyPatches

Slight scum lean. Feels a bit wishy-washy.

Probably the same storm that hit me. Hope you get your power back soon.




I'm OK for plan D as a Day 1, but we can't assume the judge is around Day 2 onward. If the witches kill the Judge, we can't rely on that kill anymore. But we won't know if/when the judge died.

Plan B is basically the same as Plan D. Honestly if Judge has the most votes but isn't lynched, that saves town from a mislynch as Judge won't kill themselves.

I don't like plan C at all, but I'll hopefully trust that the Judge makes decisions with the town in mind.





Survivalst, Warlock, Enchantress, Werewolf all could survive a lynch. However, the chances of them being evil aren't 1/4. There's at least 2/4 chance they're bad (Werewolf or Warlock/Enchantress), 1/4 chance they're good (Survivalst), or 1/4 chance we don't know (Warlock/Enchantress could be the Spy).

I think you are correct about the number of people dying in a night - the only other "night kill" there might be is the judge, but we would be aware that no lynch happened the day before.

---

So, I think we also need to talk about claiming if you're going to be lynched? If someone is about to be lynched, claiming could save you from the town but also gives the Werewolf a likely kill. Won't be as much of a problem early game, if Werewolf cannot chain their kills and becomes exposed and vulnerable the next day. But enough claims and we've given the game to them (unless Withces use a superkill?). If someone does claim, should another player counterclaim when there's no way to prove either of them right?

On a riskier side, do we want the Werewolf to out themselves early so that the Witches sacrifice one of their own and take out the Werewolf for us?

---

Vote Count (7 to Lynch)

Unavenger (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
Snowblaze (1): AvatarVecna
Valmark (2): Xihirli, Bunny of Faith
AvatarVecna (1): Snowblaze
CaoimhinTheCape (1): gac3
JeenLeen (2): rogue_alchemist, Elenna
No Lynch (1): Unavenger
No Vote: CaoimhinTheCape


No Posts: Apogee1, JonnyPatches

Null lean. This math is off because it assumes that a survivor could be the Spy disguised as a witch that could survive the lynch even though Spy wouldn't get the power. This would be a mark against you...

Oh, that's true. So it is really a 3/4 chance of being bad, or 2/3 if Warlock/Enchantress is spy and not included (though, we wouldn't know if Spy is one of those).

...except you've already been corrected on it and acknowledged that.

I'd leave it up to the priest, but it probably depends on their standing with the town. If they feel they would die from the town or witches soon I would suggest claiming so we don't lose the info.

If they can manage 2 evils I would claim and call them out. We have 3 Witches and 1 Wolf. Either way, Wolf will likely out themselves rather than being lynched and Spy can fill in any missing Evils once we think the Wolf is gone.

If they ever do need to end up claiming, I assume the Martyr can't jump in time to save them from the Wolf?





That's also true, even if the priest reveals the town has a chance to end the Day quickly before the Wolf can chow down.

---

Similar note, the Spy should let us know if we every get to LyLo. Even if we suspect the Wolf is still around, being outnumbered by the Witches means that we'll have to rely on the Wolf to kill them and then have the Wolf guess one of the townies wrong so they are vulnerable.

---

So, I'm going to Vote: AvatarVecna partly to throw down a vote and partly to push someone relatively close to a lynch. Curious to see if anyone jumps in to save AV, anyone jumps in to hammer, or what the judge will do if someone is a clear vote leader.

As for actual suspicions, I don't have anyone as necessarily evil yet. Lacking that, AV isn't one of my townreads so I'm OK putting them in a more dangerous position right now. Only 1 post to vote Snow so far.


Vote Count (7 required for majority)
AvatarVecna: 4 (Snowblaze, Elenna, JeenLeen, CaoimhinTheCape)
Valmark: 2 (Bunny, Xihirli)
Unavenger: 1 (Valmark)
JeenLeen: 1 (rogue_alchemist)
Snowblaze: 1 (AV)
Caoimhin: 1 (gac3)
No Lynch: 1 (Unavenger)

Not voting: 2 (Apgoee, JonnyPatches)

Town's one saving grace is that the wolf and the witches don't want to hunt each other too early, so they won't be as aggressive as they could be.

Null, very slightly leaning wolf. Just not much to actually go on.

Spoiler: Elenna ISO

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The great lord RNGesus bids me to vote for gac3

Null. Glad to see somebody who actually has a bunch of posts though.

Everyone voting No Lynch will mean we have no information about voting patterns in the future, though. Granted the voting patterns might be less useful without flips, but still. And leaving everything to the judge means making lynches into RNG, because they have no way of getting more information except for what's in the public thread, so if we all just spam No Lynch they basically have no information to work with. Which seems worse than having discussions.

(I guess people could vote No Lynch and still have a discussion so the judge can make decisions off that, and maybe that's a good idea? But tbh I'm worried that it would just devolve into people not saying anything.)

...are you claiming to know the number and roles of witches in this game?
UNVOTE gac3
Unavenger, explain thyself.

Scum lean. Unavenger points out how even if the Judge and the Lynch are equally likely to target a witch, the Judge is far more likely to kill a witch, and Elenna deflects to question how Unavenger knows so much about the composition of the witch-team. Which is public information, but even if it's an honest mistake, it's still NAGL that the point being made is going unaddressed.

Um. So they are. This is what I get for checking the recruitment thread instead of the starting post of the game thread.

That being said, I'm still not a huge fan of the No Lynch strategy. If we really want to let the judge decide, it seems better/simpler to just discuss normally and avoid forming a majority. When was the last time you saw a D1 wagon get more than half the votes anyway?

I feel weird voting Unavenger for suggesting a bad strategy D1, since that's what just got me mislynched in Jellicle Ball, but literally everyone else has either said nothing or has said things that look null or townie to me, so I'm leaving my vote there for now.

Slight town lean. This at least builds on the idea - even if putting the kill in the Judge's hands is the ideal tactic here, we should still discuss stuff publicly to at least give the Judge soemthing to go on.

That's not... okay, yeah, that is basically what I said at first, but that's no longer the reasoning for my vote on you
That being said, I do see where Unavenger is coming from (although I still don't support everyone voting No Lynch), and I didn't really like that vote all that much, so I think I'll switch to UNVOTE; Vote JeenLeen for some pressure and another two-person wagon. JeenLeen, you around? Got anything to say?


I'm down for this.


Wait, where does it say that the werewolf can only be killed by a sacrifice? I thought that was only true if the werewolf had devoured the day before? Am I just missing something again?

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lol ninja'd by two different people on that last point

Slight scum lean, although I can't put my finger on why. The last bit about the WW feels...indignant, almost? The phrasing feels off for what I expected.

Going to [COLOR="#FF0000"]UNVOTE[COLOR] since JeenLeen is talking. Unless I'm forgetting something, none of the wagons except Unavenger's have reasoning behind them? Hmm... AV hasn't posted since their initial RNG vote. AvatarVecna, got any thoughts on the current discussions?



You do realize that a) it was Valmark who pointed out to me that the roles were in the OP in the first place, so he's hardly ignoring that comment, and b) I already acknowledged that it was a mistake, right?

And you still haven't mentioned why you're against having a normal discussion (which will probably not end in someone having a majority, especially not D1, and in any case we can be careful to avoid hitting the lynch threshold on anyone) and then letting the judge decide based on that.


Yes, but the difference is that if we establish "judge always lynches the person with the most votes" and then one day they suddenly lynch the person with the second-most votes instead, they're basically telling the werewolf that they were the person with the most votes.


It's worth noting that basically none of the town roles can be proven. Well, I guess the Acolyte can sort of prove themselves by outing the Priest, if they're still alive, but that's pretty obviously a bad idea. And I guess the Martyr could prove themselves by dying, but that seems rather counterproductive.
Also, there's no doctor, so anyone who claims can only be saved once by the Martyr (if they're alive)
Beyond that... idk, I basically agree with what Caoimhin said. Probably people should decide individually, based on how important their power is and how many claims have already happened.

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Whoops, screwed up the colouring on that unvote. For clarity, I'll just do UNVOTE; Vote AvatarVecna again.

Slight town lean. The section about town not being able to prove feels like more like a townie bemoaning than a witch pretending to bemoan, if that makes any sense. And yeah not being able to use deaths to gain information kinda sucks.

Gonna try to restart discussion with another strategy question: if the Priest gets an "evil" result, should they claim? What about multiple "evil" results?

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Like, in normal play, even without a doctor I'd say a trade of seer for mafia is a good one. But here there's the added risk of giving the werewolf a devour target. IMO it's still worth it for the Priest to claim, especially if it's early enough that they'll probably be witch-killed before the werewolf exposes themselves to start devouring people, but I'm curious what others think.

Null. Could see scum posting this.

Priest should claim any evil result because it's literally any information to go on, where town doesn't have any and likely won't ever have any.

Overall, slight scum lean.

Spoiler: gac3 ISO

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Not sure on voting yet.

But just to clarify: We know there are four enemies of town.
The enchantress
The junior witch
The werewolf
Either the assassin or the warlock.

I didn't read all of the recruitment comments so the werewolf lover might also be anti town.

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Definitely anti town. I reread the enchantress.

I was. Enchantress because if we have lovers, then they aren't the spy. The junior witch... Because I forgot they were an option for the spy.

These two posts lean town. Gut feeling, feels more like casual-townie than casual-scum.

It's been so long since I have been a wolf in a game other than crazy idea. I did so poorly last time, I actually wish I had a chance to see how I would do now that I'm more than two games in.

But I'm not sure what wolf me would have to gain from not remembering (or claiming not to remember) that the junior witch could be the spy.

I get pointing at Unavenger but the logic they presented is somewhat sound as far as I can tell. It's also pretty on brand for them. So for now I'll go with Caiohminthe Cape to try to get them talking some.

NAI.

Ah that's a good point. I also could be the spy and the Junior Witch (it's junior witch right? Why jc?) And I'm trying to act like a JW who isn't the spy and slipped up so the witches think I'm not the spy.

That said, I'm neither the Junior witch more the spy. Though honestly, does the spy have much to lose from outing themselves? Probably the werewolf issue I bet. I think I saw mention of that in the recruitment thread.

NAI, although double anti-claim is interesting.

I doubt both the witches and the werewolf could get the benefits of their death.

NAI, anybody could point this out.

What I see as the biggest problem is there is no way to know if the werewolf dies. I'm sitting here thinking "when would it be safe for anyone to try to claim." The issue is, the werewolf makes it never safe to claim. If they didn't get a kill immunity then it wouldn't matter but now claiming almost makes it feel like if I were to claim (at any point in the future, not now of course) then I would then need to be lynched that day so we still have a hope of killing the werewolf.

Slight town lean. Yeah, it sucks that basically nothing is actually verifiable.

Slight town lean.

Spoiler: JeenLeen ISO

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Real life was hectic today, and I haven't fully read through everyone's posts enough to do analysis on them. Except for one thing: someone said we know the Lovers are in the game. How do we know that? Aventine mentioned that as a reason to delay game start, but I don't take that as proof the Lovers exist for sure.
Also, if the Lovers exist, they should try to keep it quiet. Right now, the witches don't know if the Enchantress is the spy or not. If a Lover flips Lover, then the witches know they can trust the Enchantress. We don't want to give them that clarification.

Well, one other thing: it seems a bit iffy to me that Elenna missed the roles were confirmed, but believable enough AND more egregious D1 goofs happened in a prior game when she was Town. So doesn't confirm her as Town by any means, but no reason to strongly suspect her.

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Here's a post I wrote up yesterday. I don't think anything said thus far invalidates it or makes me not want to post it. Some of it is redundant, some isn't, but I don't see a good reason to go through and edit it now.
Though I am changing my vote.

There are 13 players, so (if my math is right, e.g., 13/2=6.5), then 7 votes are needed for a lynch. Aventine, could you confirm this?

I see we are told which roles made it into the game. Seems pro-Town as it give us info only the witches would normally have, that is, which witch roles are active, and prevents safe witch fake-claims. On the other hand, it also helps the werewolf as there's no chance they guess a role that's not in the game.
There's no Necromancer or Medium, which is interesting as it intensifies the ignorance about who dies and what Roles are left. That is probably overall neutral to witches and town and bad for werewolf.

Some stuff we can learn based on deaths
If someone survives a lynch, they are the Survivalist, Warlock, Enchantress (with Lovers alive), or Werewolf.
Based on that, if someone survives a lynch, there's a 1/4 chance it's a baddie.

If 2+ people die in a night, we know the witches sacrificed someone AND/OR the Vengeful Bastard got NKed by the witches and took someone with them.

Did I miss anyone with lynch immunity?
Do any of you see another way a night-death could happen?

Aventine, if the Judge uses their power, the death is declared at end-of-night (even though the person was technically dead at end-of-day, right?)
Would it be publicly revealed that it's a judge-lynch and not a NK?
In other words, would a judge-lynch look like a NK to us?

It seems odd to trust the Judge and not vote for D1, even though Unavenger's reasoning is, well, reasonable. But I'll take that as enough D1 minor evidence to think they might be a witch trying to limit town info.
So Unavenger.

Slight town lean. Gut feeling based on effort in the post, and the directions that effort is going.

Valmark summarized things well, but to clarify my opinion and to Unavenger's credit, I do think their position is a reasonable one for a townie to hold. It's just that it's also a reasonable position for the witches to hold, in order to limit the Town from gathering intel.



That was a typo. I mean to write 3/4 chance they're a baddie.
And I think the Spy doesn't factor in, since the Spy wouldn't have the Warlock or Enchantress's power. (Only the Junior Witch retains their power if they are the Spy.) If an Enchantress or Warlock die to a lynch (or at least a non-Judge lynch), then they weren't the Spy.

NAI.

To your counterclaim question: the big riddle of this is that we can't openly answer it as a group, lest we give away the answer to the werewolf. But I definitely see the potential merit of that sort of misinformation. On the other hand, it potentially makes fake-claiming safe for the witches, which is bad for Town. Not sure if it's overall be better for Town or not (though I probably wouldn't say even if I could tell, lest I give too much away to the werewolf to help it interpret if I claim.)

On when the Town wants the werewolf named... I think a werewolf being outted early on a failed devour is definitely in our favor. We and the witches would know who it is, and it's vulnerable to witches or Vengeful Bastard (VB). We know the VB is currently alive, but once a night has 2 or more kills, we can't be certain about that anymore. A living VB is basically a "kill the werewolf for free if you get killed", as long as the werewolf fails to devour.

But not sure about if it gets it right, or even has a counter-claimant and thus is likely to get it right if it survives until the next Day. The witches might decide it's worth the risk to let it live until the next Day, in hopes of it killing townies before it kills witches. We will probably need the witches to kill it for us (barring luck with the VB), but we can't count on them killing it immediately.

So... I don't really have a solid answer to that question, but those are my thoughts on it.

There's not really good options because nothing's verifiable. A lot of this game is going to based on analyzing posts on their own merits rather than analyzing posts after taking deaths into account, or analyzing power usage, which is the usual paths people on this site take towards playing WW. So...we might just be screwed? Eh.

I mean, I think I know the appropriate move to make in this situation, but I'm also not the one in position to make that move, and saying it aloud would give the game away and make it possible for somebody else to fake such a claim.

I do agree that AV's silence seems shifty, and Unavenger is acting like they've acted when town before...
So
UNVOTE Unavenger
VOTE AvatarVecna

Though I do reckon it will be the Judge's decision this Day.



I think there is one safe claim werewolf-wise, but it is probably anti-Town all-in-all: if the Spy is the Junior Witch, they could claim before joining the witches (so can't be sacrificed) and still be immune to devouring. But then they'd probably be NKed by the witches as a confirmed townie... and it lets the witches trust each other... so all-in-all a REALLY bad town move.

I've been thinking of a couple Judge/claim schemes that might work, but both sound terribly boring and might not work (in both the sense of 'not sure if the math works out such that it could get victory' and 'there are chances it could fail even if the math is sound').

I'll share them for food for thought. But note I am not recommending them unless someone can prove it should work out.
Scheme A: Massclaim Everyone claim. The werewolf and witches will fakeclaim, of course, but that gives 5 duplicates (4 if the Spy claims Spy honest) due to baddie fakeclaims. We then systemtically go through the lynches to kill the baddies. Presumably the werewolf also tries to get immunity by killing a dup.
This could easily give the game to the werewolf unless they are unlucky in picking a dup, and the witches don't take it out the moment at first opportunity.

Scheme B: Judge Leads
If we let the Judge control the kill, I think odds favor the Judge killing the witches randomly before the witches kill the town.
The big downside is that the Judge might be randomly killed by the witches. And we probably don't learn that the Judge died until the No Lynch has no kill (though the Warlock, Survivalist, or Werewolf might mislead us.)
Also, this is really boring as it's basically us all doing nothing.
This fails if the Judge dies, and also fails if the Judge is Lover with the Werewolf (but that seems very unlikely, so probably best to assume the Lovers are Town). I reckon it's a bad plan in that it will set up the witches to win once the Judge dies randomly, with the surviving Town having almost no info to find the baddies. So this is probably giving the game to the witches.

Going into too much detail would be a giant rabbit hole, but I think Scheme A just hands the game to the wolf in more ways than one. Mass-claiming would need to be done carefully.

Scheme 2's issues largely revolve around the futility of trying at all in this set-up. It would be quite viable in a game where roles were revealed on death, I think.

While true, I doubt everyone will be on board with waiting one day to confirm the Judge really is still alive. And such waiting is probably handing the game to the witches, as it means an extra kill for them with no action by Town. Even worse, if some of the town is voting and are No Lynch, the witches might be able to control the vote (by joining a wagon 'just for the sake of doing something, maybe we hit a witch') and make sure a townie dies.



I agree.
While it's fun to think of detailed plans, schemes, and shenanigans, it's rather hard to think of ones that actually work. Even moreso ones that work if not everybody plays along.

I just realized another reason the massclaim idea is bad: we don't know if a witch died.
Like, if both the Assassin and Priest claim Priest, and we lynch one, we'd need to lynch the other to be sure we got the witch, since roles aren't revealed. (This is a bad example as an Acolyte could help, but I hope you get the idea.) The werewolf would probably help the town in this respect, in that their devour attempts could help narrow down the dups; they'd likely fakeclaim to start, but they get outted once they devour, so pretty soon we'd likely know who they are.
Hmm... and the werewolf would basically need to try to devour once massclaims happen, since the witches would know which of the dup pairs contains the werewolf.
So, yeah, likely hands the game to the werewolf still.

Slight scum lean. I think mass claim can work, but it's going to be tricky, and saying why it's tricky would ruin it. I generally feel that advising town to not claim to each other, in a game where there's already a severe information gap, is a giant mistake.

If the Priest has 2 evils scried, I think it'd be worth it to reveal. Maybe the werewolf devours them, but, then again, if we act quickly on the intel, we might be able to force the game to Night before the werewolf gets to use their power.
If it's just 1 evil scried, not so sure. Probably worth it. It outs the werewolf (assuming they devour the Priest), but then the werewolf will likely be vulnerable to the witches sooner than later. Might actually be worthwhile: the longer we go into the game, the more intel there will be to help the werewolf guess who is what role, and the more likely the werewolf will be able to chain devours. If he eats the priest D2, it's less likely he'll get a good chain going.

On a similar note, if someone who is NOT the priest is saying they are the priest and know a potential lynchee is , it might be worthwhile for the Acolyte to proclaim "That ain't the priest." Less sure about that one, though.

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Realized a typo: for if 1 evil, I meant "if it outs the werewolf", probably still worth it. It seems definitely worth it if it hits a witch, but potentially worth it if the werewolf, just I'm less sure.

Slight town lean, solid point about using the hammer to screw the wolf.

Null lean. Some good, some bad.

Spoiler: JonnyPatches ISO

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...

Null. Literally nothing to go on.

Spoiler: rogue_alchemist ISO

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I'll vote JeenLeen, since she hasn't said anything yet. I think JonnyPatches is new, so welcome! It is always nice to have fresh blood (you know in a totally normal way, not in a "I want to suck your blood" kind of way ).

Slight town lean.

Once the spy ousts themselves, the witches will vote to sacrifice them and make their next kill unblockable. The witches don't lose a valued member, get a free unblockable kill and the werewolf can no longer be killed.

NAI. This has been addressed by others already so I won't harp on it, but I got a similar impression from the recruitment thread discussion.

We do not have a necromancer nor a medium, so NO ONE gets to know the identify of those who have died. It means that no one has to worry about being ousted for knowing too much, but also means we have no way to confirm if our target was in fact town or not after a lynch. This makes it double blind to start killing people as we have no way to verify who we can trust without public information that potentially targets the person who releases the info as only the priest will really know who is good or evil with their ability.

Agreed.

\

Werewolves can only be killed with the unblockable kill by the witches.



I didn't mean that the werewolf counts as having devoured and thus being immune, I meant that the witches have to sacrifice to kill the werewolf, so it is safe until the spy is ousted or they decide to sacrifice another person (though I don't know why they would without reasonable suspicion about who the spy was).

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No I am not suggesting that at all, just pointing it out so people will factor it into their plans. I am all for everyone vote and then the judge decide between the top 2-3, it leaves anonymity as an option, people can share info and it gives a lot of analysis of people changing votes.

The only thing that sucks about that plan is waiting the full 72 hours every time for day to end.

Already addressed.

I guess I misunderstood the discussion around that in the recruitment thread. My bad. So they can't be lynched, but otherwise are killable, unless they devour successfully. The enchantress is another unkillable except by killing the lovers first, except by the judge. What other roles are unkillable except in special circumstance?

NAI.

So the werewolf also has a chance to guess a role and successfully devour someone that could be a NK.

Slight scum lean. The first time you're proven wrong about how you thought a power worked, you'd go back and read it to be sure it works. This clarification question feels like it wouldn't be posted by a townie who already screwed up in good faith, it feels like scum leaning a little more on the "idk how the roles work" card they've already played.

I think since the Judge kill will get distinguished from Night Kills, we won't be fulled by Warlock, Survivalist, or Werewolf after a no lynch if the judge is dead. I mean it'll basically give 1 day with no lynch kill when the judge hasn't acted, but otherwise Scheme B reads pretty sound to me. I am against massclaims as that'll just pave the way for the baddies to win. There is no great way to do this. Scheme B is very similar to Plan D from earlier.

For Aventine:
How long is night phase?

Slight town lean. Has the right feel to it.

Null, slightly leaning scum.

Spoiler: Snowblaze ISO

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AvatarVecna, because OMGUS. Also because I’m too lazy to come up with serious reads this early in the morning.

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The Junior Witch can also be lynched. And the Warlock has to be lynched twice, so lynching them once still helps us even if it doesn’t directly do anything.

NAI, anybody could've pointed that out.

That reminds me: @Aventine, can the werewolf be nightkilled by the witches?

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Also I think we do actually need to talk about mechanics this game, reluctant though I normally am to support that. I’ll see if I can find a few things.

NAI.

Let’s go!

Lynching
DELETE
Lynching

Plan a: vote until a majority is reached
Advantages:
Generates the most information
Forces people to commit to hard stances
Gives us a good shot at getting accurate reads between us

Disadvantages:
Time pressure - there’s a good chance it’ll just turn into “there’s not long until EOD, everyone pile on someone”. I may be slightly biased because time zones, but I don’t think that’s a productive way of hitting scum.
Probability of players being lynch-proof

Plan b: vote as normal, then judge executes whoever has most votes
Advantages:
Has the benefits of normal lynching, without the disadvantages
Disadvantages:
Judge may not agree
What if the judge has the most votes?

Plan c: no lynch, judge chooses whoever they want
Advantages: can still kill lynchproof scum
Disadvantages: judge’s reads could be less accurate than the player base as a whole
No accountability without vote pressure

I personally think something along the lines of “vote as normal, and if no majority is reached the judge should choose between the two or three highest in votes to execute” works well. I’d like to propose that as plan d, and the one I support. Thoughts?

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...ah, I copy-pasted badly and I can’t edit posts *sob*

I'm not sure what the mistake was in this copypasting so I'm not sure how it was meant to come across. Slight town lean for talking through teh options though.

Valid point. What do you suggest we do about it? We can’t just refuse to kill or lynch anyone and let the witches kill us all.

Info-lynches aren't a thing, so town's goal is to talk and talk and analyze and talk and analyze and analyze until we feel we've got a solid grasp on whose posts feel the weirdest coming from a townie and lynch them for it, and keep doing that until the game ends and we find out how accurate our hunches were/weren't. But that requires:

1) A super-active town to begin with, which... *glances at thread*
2) People to not get discouraged playing a game where you literally have no idea how well/how poorly you're doing until the game very abruptly ends.

There’s nothing wrong with having more time, unless you’re impatient.

Where did it say that the werewolf can only die to an unblockable witchkill? Did I miss that in my maybe-not-quite-as-thorough-as-it-should-have-been read of the setup?

Null, very slight town read for the first bit.

...*internal screaming*

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Disagree with Unavenger’s logic, but still think they’re town.

I would appreciate it if AV could actually do stuff this game, even without QTs.

I scumread rogue_alchemist, but you may want to take that with a large pinch of salt given I’ve scumread rogue_alchemist in every single game we’ve played together and unlike with Valmark, I have no better way to read him yet.

Xihirli is Xihirli.

Valmark I don’t have a read on yet. I haven’t seen the “spark of towniness” yet but it’s early enough that I don’t mind giving him some time.

And this is getting dangerously close to a day one reads list, which after Jellicle Ball I should know better than to make, so I’ll stop there.

Slight scum read, because of the Valmark anti-read.

Null. Not sure how to take most of this tbh, and I'm bad at reading Snowblaze anyway.

Spoiler: Unavenger ISO

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Under the circumstances I see no reason not to swap our lynch for a dayvig. Judge, choose wisely. No Lynch.

Slight town lean. I see the merits of the plan, and I don't really see this post as discouraging discussion the way others have somehow read it.

D1 voting is a hell of a mess usually anyway, and doesn't often mean much. And there's no reason why we can't tell things to the judge for as long as we're confident they're alive, which is... well, we're certain they're alive D1, at least. There's nothing stopping people from giving whatever info they have, and then voting NL anyway to allow a confirmed townie to pick the kill target, and I think it's a good idea for at least one night - particularly since the normal lynch has a two thirds chance of doing nothing if it lands on a witch, as it can only kill the assassin.

Slight town lean. Here's where they clarify that in fact they are encouraging discussion even if they think No Lynch should be town's conclusion.

"I don't see how people can share info, because any info you share has to be in the big place where everyone shares info." GOOD SHOWING!

I don't even think that "You read the OP, you must be a WITCH!" bears responding to.

I continue to pray that neither of you is the judge and that they are more sensible than either of you.

My reasoning makes 100% sense for a townie (and no sense for a witch) but is still suspicious? What? Are you HIGH?

Vote NL and let someone who's actually definitely town decide, for heaven's sake.

What, you mean apart from the person who JUST SAID IT WAS REASONABLE?

I'm being "Aggressive" because everyone who's talking about this is saying something hilariously wrong, and you keep on pretending like no-one said the things they did (like "This is reasonable" or "You're a witch because you read the OP" - spoiler alert, when I mentioned that one, I was not in fact implying that you were the one who said it) and that people said things that they didn't (Apparently, "We are allowed to talk about things because there is a thread" means "I have a faction QT"?).

Just... gah. I still don't see how letting a townie decide is a bad idea.

Strong town lean for endless salt.

That is... a lot different from how I was expecting "Unblockable" and "Will be considered to have died to a lynch" to work. I don't think it matters - the judge kill is still strictly better than a lynch, and no-one's had a chance to do anything to make a kill unblockable yet - but that could have been made a lot clearer. I initially assumed unblockable meant unblockable, rather than unblockable unless there's a full moon or you're trying to gank a prepper, and I was sorta counting on the assumption that the judge kill didn't count as a lynch until after it had succeeded.

NAI. Either side could've posted this.

Which is probably because I haven't mentioned that I'm against a normal discussion either. I can still say I find, say, Val's whole death tunneling schtick suspicious while not actually voting for him.

Votes are a good way of signalling suspicion, though.

Strong town lean. We might be getting played because Unavenger is catching onto this read, but the salt feels too genuine.

Spoiler: Valmark ISO

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I know Xihirli will vote me soooo... Nah doesn't matter, AV's first anyway. AvatarVecna.

NAI

Elenna, the roles used are in the OP :p

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Though, I honestly don't think advocating for No Lynch is a good thing- on the first day we know that if no majority is reached a kill will go off nonetheless, si we shouldn't push for that.

Plus, No Lynch doesn't help discussion- it may be a mess, but it's a mess we can check later.

I don't see how people can share info otherwise, since anything you tell the judge has to be public. Unless you got confused with a QT you may have in addition to your personal QT?

UNVOTE AvatarVecna
VOTE Unavenger.

Slight scum lean.

Voting "No Lynch" doesn't stifle discussion except in that it doesn't put vote pressure on people to defend themselves, and Unavenger didn't tell people not to discuss stuff. Why are you making out like that's what they said?

I also don't see where it is Unavenger said people should communicate privately with the Judge, as this post implies. Can you quote it and explain why that's the conclusion you've drawn?

Gac3, how are you excluding both the enchantress and the junior witch from the possible witches who are really the Spy?

I can see why the former, but the latter? Assuming that's why you said Assassin OR Warlock.

NAI. Either team could've made that post.

Aaaagh that's the kind of reply that always makes me suspect you and then you're never a wolf. But if I have to choose I prefer pointing at Unavenger for now.

And yeah, I assumed the Enchantress was because we know the lovers are in game.

Null, although could be scumbuddies with Snow? Ehhhhh.

Could have been a slip up. Maybe you are the JC and not the Spy, and misremembered saying that JC couldn't be the Spy.


Well... The Vampire Hunter is in the game...

NAI. I don't think JW!gac would slip in that way, I think gac slipped in a completely different way.

Exactly that!

NAI.

Uh sorry, yeah, JW. If the Spy outs themselves the witches will kill them easy, and if the Spy denounces the witches and we start killing them we lose our only real weapon against the Werewolf.

Witches can kill the werewolf, the Vengeful Bastard can, or through killing the Werewolf Lover if the Enchantress picked the Werewolf as one of the lovers.

Though if the werewolf devours somebody successfully I think nothing can touch them besides the unblockable kill.

You said that any info people have they can give it anyway. Thing is, unless we discuss stuff here, the only info people can give is from their private stuff that might out their role giving the Werewolf free reign.

And... I never said that so yeah, no point in replying to it.

Mh, usually when Unavenger overreacts they are Town if I recall correctly. Not that I have better picks.

I wanna see if I'm following the thought process for the underlined part.

1) You saw Unavenger say "town should discuss stuff even if they vote No Lynch, so that the Judge has something to go on".

2) You know that most people don't know any useful info except their own role.

3) You think claiming publicly in this game is a bad idea.

4) Based on 1/2/3, you think Unavenger was telling people to communicate in private with the Judge, if they communicate at all.

5) You know that private communication is illegal in this game.

6) Based on 4/5, you think that when Unavenger said "town should discuss stuff even if they vote No Lynch, so that the Judge has something to go on", you think that what they actually meant was "people shouldn't discuss stuff and should just vote No Lynch, even though that gives the Judge nothing to go on".

Like, I don't even think "encouraging No Lynch discourages discussion" is completely incorrect, but the route you took to get to that conclusion feels like nonsense.

That about the Werewolf is untrue. They are immune to lynching, not death itself unless they devour a player succesfully.

Dunno about time, let's see: longer day time may mean more information.


It's not written anywhere. Unless they devour, again.

NAI.

The traveler can't be killed by the witches (unless unblockable), survivalist has a one time protection and warlock has a one time protection specific to lynches. And the spy can't be devoured. I think that's it?

NAI, but keep my name outta yer mouth.

Except all the ones that decided to comment on that reasoning are in disagreement with you. There is no need to be so aggressive, unless you're trying to piss people off or intimidate them for... I dunno.

Though we are three in disagreement, so we tecnically could be all the witches I guess.

I think their reasoning is mostly sound, and a couple people have made plans based on Unavenger's idea, so it's not like everybody is disagreeing. Last bit could be TWTBAW, maybe is trying to provoke that read? Eh.

You mean one that could be night killed? Because the werewolf's is a Day power.

Though they could devour a witch, yes, if that's what you meant?

There is to say that the Werewolf will be outed if they try to devour someone. I don't think we'll see them for multiple phases.


Expect Jeen clearly said that while reasonable they find it odd, which is reason to vote you.

And if you read Elenna asked you why you knew the roles, not that you are a witch because you red the OP- in fact, her reason to vote for you is not tied to that.

And I've already explained how I came to that conclusion, so could you please not single out two sentences while completely ignoring all the rest of the post? It's pointless to get angry if you don't read correctly the posts.

And no, it's not wrong to leave the kill to the judge- but if we all just go No Lynch, then the judge will have zero to go on and will have to shoot blind. Well, blinder. There is virtually no difference between voting No Lynch and not reaching the majority, except that the latter means talking.

Take yourself for example, if people ignored you or just said "Mh yeah" it would be pointless if not even anti-town.
With a discussion those on the sidelines can judge us and ferret out the witches. Of course, when one starts acting like this it gets harder to evaluate correctly.

Unavenger was not and never said people should just post "No Lynch" with no other content until the day ends.

Yes, but if I hadn't engaged you we'd not be arguing about it in the first place. And I wouldn't call death tunneling mainly correcting you, though your behavior after even a single vote surely didn't give me a good impression. I'd be sure of my vote if it was the first time.

NAI.

Yeah, we can't really mass-claim ever. I predict there will be a lot of paranoia when deaths start piling up and we have no idea how close we are to losing or winning.

I hope Snowblaze survives for long. Her reaction to this kind of paranoia will be fun to see :p

Yeah you can lynch me for what I just said, Snow. I'll understand.

Mass-claiming is an awful idea that basically can't work for town except under very specific circumstances. What people seem to be failing to grasp is that this is true of basically any strategy. Town is ****ed because the whole game is a crapshoot and we're only going to find out if we bet on the right horses 2-3 weeks from now, and mass-claiming is the only strategy that makes that sort-of not true, even if it screws us over for completely different reasons.

(also, while it's technically not happened yet, the window of opportunity for the "very specific circumstances" under which mass-claiming can work is shrinking and the right first move hasn't been made. I hope they realize that before it's too late.)

He either played too little Werewolf or too much.

NAI.

Giving the werewolf a devour target isn't too much of a risk, honestly. I mean a single one. If they devour they'd get exposed.

There is to say that no way to confirm which role died every time is what really bothers me. Sure, it's a decent exchange, but not so good if there's like, 5 Town remaining and all 4 witches alive. And the Werewolf. Because that's really the only problem, we could mass-claim if it wasn't for them and ferret out the witches easy.

NAI.

Slight scum lean, but might be biased.

Spoiler: Xihirli ISO

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Right. Take 2.

Valmark, you've played enough of these I don't feel bad about killing you D1. You'll do for a poke.

NAI.

Should we be ready to catch them, or resign ourselves to a squishy death?

NAI.

I am impatient.

And illiterate.

Yarr, I be so illiterate, I do not even have the cultural understanding to make a colorful expression detailing my failing.

NAI.

I am not on the same side as Valmark! We are so distant, nobody could ever mistake us for being on the same team.

*rubs temples*

Yeah, this game is a whole new animal.
A cute animal!

NAI.

But if the judge judgeth not, shall we be the judge?

Ghandi said that.

NAI.

Null. High quantity, nonexistent quality. If anybody else were posting like this, they'd be the poster-child for "I wanted to look active without actually contributing because I'm scum and want town to lose"...but it's Xihirli.

[gac3]

Oh man. All this talk about the priest is interesting. I didn't realize/forgot until I reread the description that devouring outs the werewolf. I'm far less concerned with people claiming now. Not that people should claim right now but it's less scary if the priest or someone gets Intel to claim. I'm almost leaning that they should announce any evil reads. The werewolf might kill them but then we have something to go on. I guess it will all depend on how results go.

[Xihirli]

I can explain that, AV.
I wanted to look active without actually contributing because I'm scum and want town to lose.

[Valmark]

Voting "No Lynch" doesn't stifle discussion except in that it doesn't put vote pressure on people to defend themselves, and Unavenger didn't tell people not to discuss stuff. Why are you making out like that's what they said?

I also don't see where it is Unavenger said people should communicate privately with the Judge, as this post implies. Can you quote it and explain why that's the conclusion you've drawn?

I wanna see if I'm following the thought process for the underlined part.

1) You saw Unavenger say "town should discuss stuff even if they vote No Lynch, so that the Judge has something to go on".

2) You know that most people don't know any useful info except their own role.

3) You think claiming publicly in this game is a bad idea.

4) Based on 1/2/3, you think Unavenger was telling people to communicate in private with the Judge, if they communicate at all.

5) You know that private communication is illegal in this game.

6) Based on 4/5, you think that when Unavenger said "town should discuss stuff even if they vote No Lynch, so that the Judge has something to go on", you think that what they actually meant was "people shouldn't discuss stuff and should just vote No Lynch, even though that gives the Judge nothing to go on".

Like, I don't even think "encouraging No Lynch discourages discussion" is completely incorrect, but the route you took to get to that conclusion feels like nonsense.

NAI, but keep my name outta yer mouth.

I think their reasoning is mostly sound, and a couple people have made plans based on Unavenger's idea, so it's not like everybody is disagreeing. Last bit could be TWTBAW, maybe is trying to provoke that read? Eh.

Unavenger was not and never said people should just post "No Lynch" with no other content until the day ends.

Mass-claiming is an awful idea that basically can't work for town except under very specific circumstances. What people seem to be failing to grasp is that this is true of basically any strategy. Town is ****ed because the whole game is a crapshoot and we're only going to find out if we bet on the right horses 2-3 weeks from now, and mass-claiming is the only strategy that makes that sort-of not true, even if it screws us over for completely different reasons.

(also, while it's technically not happened yet, the window of opportunity for the "very specific circumstances" under which mass-claiming can work is shrinking and the right first move hasn't been made. I hope they realize that before it's too late.)

I have no idea how else to read it. They initially said that they see no reason not to leave it to the judge, then when prodded by Elenna they said that it's a mess that doesn't often mean much anyway. I'm not sure how that isn't telling people to not discuss because it doesn't really matter.

Neither me or Unavenger ever said that? I said that Unavenger wrote about leaving it all to the judge, but people could still give their info. But the only info people can share are from their private QTs which would out them in such a case- and of course you can't tell the judge privately even if you know who they are. So it could be a slip because Unavenger has been talking in a QT with other players and got confused.

1) See above, that's not how I red that.

...yeah nothing else to say on the other five points or the conclusion, except that I don't see why it is nonsense.

I'm sure there was a joke related to keeping your name etc. But I don't see it.

Even rereading it, I can't find anybody talking about Unavenger's plan before that post, so it's true that all who talked about it were in disagreement. Plans came after. And re-reading the whole thread, no person who proposed a plan acknowledged them so even then what I said is true. Unless I've overlooked a post?

Again, that's how I red and still read it. Or to be more precise, the natural outcome of Unavenger's idea in my mind.

I'd like to hear how a mass claim could work in this game. Though at the end of it, because if you state it out loud it'll just end badly I'm sure. I hope I'm not the one who was supposed to make the first move >.>

This honestly feels like you're protecting them more then reading me. Unavenger and Vecna witches? Or the Lovers?

On another note, what's NAI?

[AvatarVecna]

I have no idea how else to read it. They initially said that they see no reason not to leave it to the judge, then when prodded by Elenna they said that it's a mess that doesn't often mean much anyway. I'm not sure how that isn't telling people to not discuss because it doesn't really matter.

Neither me or Unavenger ever said that? I said that Unavenger wrote about leaving it all to the judge, but people could still give their info. But the only info people can share are from their private QTs which would out them in such a case- and of course you can't tell the judge privately even if you know who they are. So it could be a slip because Unavenger has been talking in a QT with other players and got confused.

1) See above, that's not how I red that.

...yeah nothing else to say on the other five points or the conclusion, except that I don't see why it is nonsense.

Where it becomes nonsense for me is where you assume that the only valuable information people have is their identities, and that sharing identities publicly is an inherently bad idea, therefore you assume Unavenger is discouraging public discussion of any kind. If Unavenger thinks that people have information worth sharing, or thinks that roles are worth sharing publicly, your conclusions based on assuming Unavenger thinks the same way you do is incorrect.

Incidentally, I think there is value in claiming publicly under specific circumstances, and I agree that nobody has directly-game-relevant information besides their role. But this particular set-up places a ton of value on analysis of how people go about playing the game, rather than the usual "everybody has this or that power, so here's what somebody with that power would do, so here's how they must be playing, who's playing like that", this game will end up feeling a lot more like a no-PR game in a bunch of ways, particularly when it comes to analysis. There needs to be a lot of discussion, even if 99% of what any particular person says isn't directly useful on its own (which, as Unavenger pointed out, Day 1 is usually meaningless drivel that doesn't mean anything in the moment). Because even if most of it's junk, comparing D1 junk to later D1 junk to D2 junk and so on will turn that trash into treasure.

Saying "Day 1 conversation is usually a pile of junk" isn't quite the same thing as saying "Day 1 conversation is completely worthless and therefore shouldn't occur at all", and I think it's weird that you keep reading the first and hearing the second.

I'd like to hear how a mass claim could work in this game. Though at the end of it, because if you state it out loud it'll just end badly I'm sure. I hope I'm not the one who was supposed to make the first move >.>

TBH I could probably say it now. I mean yeah it'd ruin the possibility of the plan even working, but like we're probably totally screwed anyway? And I can't even discuss how screwed we are because it's possible I've put more thought into these twists and turns than the wolves have so far, and the whole of my musings would just give them ideas.

This honestly feels like you're protecting them more then reading me. Unavenger and Vecna witches? Or the Lovers?

I disagree with the things you've written, I agree with the things they've written. You're pushing my main town read, so even if you're town I'm going to be biased against you.

On another note, what's NAI?

Not Alignment Indicative. Generally speaking, it's something where it could make sense to say as a townie or a wolf. Like let's say that mass-claiming was objectively an inherently bad strategy for town - a townie saying "don't mass-claim" is warning town to not make the bad move, while a wolf/witch saying "don't mass-claim" is trying to look like a townie. Most things are NAI, just because that's kinda the game - the strategy for basically every role in basically every Mafia game is "pretend to be a vanillager" (even if you are a vanillager, you want people to think you are one). It's little things that you have to dig into to get a sense for whether somebody is town/scum - statements that are weird phrasings for a villager, or something that's such a pro-town move that a wolf probably wouldn't make it even to look towny, because it gives town an advantage for free.

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TBH I could probably say it now. I mean yeah it'd ruin the possibility of the plan even working, but like we're probably totally screwed anyway? And I can't even discuss how screwed we are because it's possible I've put more thought into these twists and turns than the wolves have so far, and the whole of my musings would just give them ideas.

Like, I had soooooo many dumb strats for if I was Werewolf or a Witch. Werewolf strat was gonna be to just claim as soon as possible, complete with an attempted kill.

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This game could look extremely different once the night is over. Witches sacrifice one of their own to get an unblockable kill; assassin power triggers, so witches get a bonus kill. They target two non-witch players, including the Vengeful Bastard, who targets one of the Lovers. That's a viable way for 5 deaths to occur tonight: the witch sacrifice, the random non-witch, the Vengeful Bastard, and the two Lovers.

In normal play, I'd say the priest shouldn't claim, but rather should hide hints at their scry results in their analysis so that it's not super-obvious as analysis, but is painfully clear after they die and flip seer. But in this game, there are no flips. NO flips at all, with the single sole exception of the werewolf outing themselves. There is not chance at proving credibility, and thus nobody's posts will be analyzed in the "they were definitely the seer" light. If I die today, and tomorrow somebody pops up claiming 1) I'm the priest, and 2) they are the acolyte, for all you know they are telling the truth...and for all you know, they are lying their ass off. There's literally no way to tell. In a normal game, town's goal is to make their deaths give information, and witch's goal is to spread enough disinformation that deaths are less useful for info-gathering. Well in this game, deaths are worthless for info-gathering by default, so...yeah.

(some notes I had saved up from the ISO, but the ISO ended up being like right under the character limit so I couldn't post these at the time. >.>)

[Elenna]

Okay, AV posted a bunch of stuff so I'm unvoting. Now if only there was anyone else I was suspicious of... I'm also still at a null tell on most people.
Bunny of Faith hasn't said much, and one of their two posts has just been a mechanics point that's in the OP. They haven't made any comments on the strategy discussions, which could maybe be a witch trying to not help town?

IDK, I might be better off voting for someone who already has votes instead of creating yet another one-vote wagon, except I don't really like any of those wagons.

• The AV wagon was pretty much just based on "they're quiet", which is no longer true.
• Valmark does seem to be tunnelling Unavenger a little, although that might just be because Unavenger is the only person Valmark's formed a strong opinion on. But tunnelling isn't necessarily a witch trait. IDK, my gut is telling me this is town vs town, but then the last time I thought that it was AV versus Unavenger and AV turned out to be a wolf... Maybe I'm just giving Valmark credit for agreeing with me that we shouldn't all go No Lynch.
• Unavenger salt feels real to me. Could be faked, but I'm inclined to believe for now that they're a townie pushing a plan I don't like, rather than a witch.
• The other three wagons (JeenLeen, Snowblaze, and Caoimhin) are all RNG votes on people who have been fairly talkative so I'm disinclined to kill them.

Side note: Valmark seems to be saying "Unavenger said D1 discussion is a mess so clearly he's discouraging discussion". But what Unavenger actually said that D1 voting was a mess (100% true), he didn't say anything about discussion. I'm taking this as a legit misreading of Unavenger's post for now, mostly because it doesn't seem likely that a witch would deliberately base an argument on something that wasn't even said.

Spoiler: Elenna ISO

Show

Null. Glad to see somebody who actually has a bunch of posts though.





Scum lean. Unavenger points out how even if the Judge and the Lynch are equally likely to target a witch, the Judge is far more likely to kill a witch, and Elenna deflects to question how Unavenger knows so much about the composition of the witch-team. Which is public information, but even if it's an honest mistake, it's still NAGL that the point being made is going unaddressed.



Slight town lean. This at least builds on the idea - even if putting the kill in the Judge's hands is the ideal tactic here, we should still discuss stuff publicly to at least give the Judge soemthing to go on.



Slight scum lean, although I can't put my finger on why. The last bit about the WW feels...indignant, almost? The phrasing feels off for what I expected.



Slight town lean. The section about town not being able to prove feels like more like a townie bemoaning than a witch pretending to bemoan, if that makes any sense. And yeah not being able to use deaths to gain information kinda sucks.



Null. Could see scum posting this.

Priest should claim any evil result because it's literally any information to go on, where town doesn't have any and likely won't ever have any.

Overall, slight scum lean.

You're right that I never directly addressed the point about the judge being able to kill one more witch than a regular lynch, but the plan I've been pushing this whole time is "we discuss and vote but nobody gets a majority of the votes (which is what normally happens on the first couple days of a game anyways) and then the judge picks someone". So I didn't feel the need to address that particular point, since my plan still results in a judge kill.
(It's true that I didn't say that in my very first response to Unavenger, if that's what you're looking at? I was too busy being confused/surprised by "wtf did you just out yourself as a witch" to comment on the rest of the post.)

To clarify my stance - theoretically, we could have a discussion and analyze a bunch of stuff and throw around accusations and FoS while still voting No Lynch. And that might be a good idea. But what's worrying me is past games on this site where the network says "vote so-and-so, but also please discuss" and then discussion immediately dies because a bunch of people just pop in with a vote and leave. I suspect if we decided that we would all go no lynch, a similar thing would happen with people just saying "no lynch" and nothing else. Meanwhile, if people are actually voting, they have more incentive to analyze in order to justify their vote. And then, as mentioned above, we can still have the judge decide.

Not much to say about the rest of this, except that I did say that I thought the priest should claim. It was mostly posted as a question because almost nobody had said anything for hours and I wanted people to talk.

I can explain that, AV.
I wanted to look active without actually contributing because I'm scum and want town to lose.

...Xihirli why

[Valmark]

Where it becomes nonsense for me is where you assume that the only valuable information people have is their identities, and that sharing identities publicly is an inherently bad idea, therefore you assume Unavenger is discouraging public discussion of any kind.

If Unavenger thinks that people have information worth sharing, or thinks that roles are worth sharing publicly, your conclusions based on assuming Unavenger thinks the same way you do is incorrect.

Incidentally, I think there is value in claiming publicly under specific circumstances, and I agree that nobody has directly-game-relevant information besides their role. But this particular set-up places a ton of value on analysis of how people go about playing the game, rather than the usual "everybody has this or that power, so here's what somebody with that power would do, so here's how they must be playing, who's playing like that", this game will end up feeling a lot more like a no-PR game in a bunch of ways, particularly when it comes to analysis. There needs to be a lot of discussion, even if 99% of what any particular person says isn't directly useful on its own (which, as Unavenger pointed out, Day 1 is usually meaningless drivel that doesn't mean anything in the moment). Because even if most of it's junk, comparing D1 junk to later D1 junk to D2 junk and so on will turn that trash into treasure.

TBH I could probably say it now. I mean yeah it'd ruin the possibility of the plan even working, but like we're probably totally screwed anyway? And I can't even discuss how screwed we are because it's possible I've put more thought into these twists and turns than the wolves have so far, and the whole of my musings would just give them ideas.

Like, I had soooooo many dumb strats for if I was Werewolf or a Witch. Werewolf strat was gonna be to just claim as soon as possible, complete with an attempted kill.

Wait wait, I'm assuming Unavenger is discouraging discussion yes, but that's because they were prodded by Elenna saying how No Lynch damages discussion and they replied by saying that D1 is a mess that doesn't often mean much. I don't understand how this could possibly have any other meaning.

Then they say that people can still share information, but without D1 discussion you can basically only claim and that is clearly bad.

You say there is a lot of importance in discussion D1 because crap to treasure etc. And that's perfectly true. Unavenger though clearly dismissed D1 discussion as just useless stuff. They didn't put a condition or anything- they were told "D1 gives information regarding voting patterns etc. And if we spam NL judge have nothing to work with" And replied with "D1 doesn't often mean much anyway and people can still tell stuff" except nobody will have anything to say in such a case.
Case in point, all of this is coming from having voted Unavenger in the first place.

Just in case, don't say it until D2 at least. A smidge of a chance is better then no chance at all.

Wait, why would you claim istantly as the Werewolf? The witches at that point could kill you as soon as it is comfortable for them. Or the vengeful bastard if they are killed.

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Side note: Valmark seems to be saying "Unavenger said D1 discussion is a mess so clearly he's discouraging discussion". But what Unavenger actually said that D1 voting was a mess (100% true), he didn't say anything about discussion. I'm taking this as a legit misreading of Unavenger's post for now, mostly because it doesn't seem likely that a witch would deliberately base an argument on something that wasn't even said.

The discussion part is born from that. Though, I have to admit that if I'm indeed tunneling Unavenger I probably wouldn't realize because I'd be biased at this point. I think.

[gac3]

Man. I wish we could message. Things would be easier. But that's the point. I'm actually thinking that not lynching anyone is the best option. Witches are the only people organized enough that they can target someone so a vote lynch day one is leaned to kill a townie. While the judge can basically target anyone with equal suspicion. So I'm going to go
Unvote, No lynch and recommend that we instead place non-red votes for who the judge should kill and why. Then the judge decides based on that info.

Currently I'm not sure who most looks suspicious. AV was quiet but then popped back in, though only after being pointed out that it looked sketchy. Valmark... I'm not sure on them but am on the fence enough that maybe I would recommend the priest should target them. Unavenger I'm leaning town.

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Maybe Johny patches, since they haven't said anything. Might be useful for them to stop counting as part of the majority.

[AvatarVecna]

Wait, why would you claim istantly as the Werewolf? The witches at that point could kill you as soon as it is comfortable for them. Or the vengeful bastard if they are killed.

I don't particularly feel like spelling out the full strategy, primarily because there's some follow-up steps that are needed to avoid scenarios like what you're talking about and I don't want to just hand this to whoever the actual wolf is. Suffice to say, it can work if you're ballsy enough...so really, there's like three people on this site that could make it work.

Man. I wish we could message. Things would be easier. But that's the point. I'm actually thinking that not lynching anyone is the best option. Witches are the only people organized enough that they can target someone so a vote lynch day one is leaned to kill a townie. While the judge can basically target anyone with equal suspicion. So I'm going to go
Unvote, No lynch and recommend that we instead place non-red votes for who the judge should kill and why. Then the judge decides based on that info.

Currently I'm not sure who most looks suspicious. AV was quiet but then popped back in, though only after being pointed out that it looked sketchy. Valmark... I'm not sure on them but am on the fence enough that maybe I would recommend the priest should target them. Unavenger I'm leaning town.

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Maybe Johny patches, since they haven't said anything. Might be useful for them to stop counting as part of the majority.

See, I was all ready to townread you for awhile and then you go and write stuff like "maybe we should actually not lynch anybody".

If the wolf and the spy were townies, and we had an extra townie, and we knew who died upon death, that's still three witches against us with no baner and only a couple roles that can't be immediately killed when targeted - and to counter those "extra lives", there's extra kills floating around too. That's four, maybe five mislynches before LYLO/MYLO. Even though we get no info from the lynch, and even though we're basically going to firing blind the whole game, we can't give up the lynch entirely. Maybe we hammer somebody, maybe we hand it off to the judge after spending the full day discussing stuff. But the judge shouldn't abstain if we can't come to a conclusion - the judge role exists to make sure that even if town can't get along, no lynch goes by without at least trying to kill somebody.

(I'd also wager that the days are longer specifically to give us more time to analyze and think things over.)

[JeenLeen]

Something about AV's analysis makes me think she might be witch. Also makes me think a touch that Valmark might be the werewolf. it's hard to put a finger on why exactly, and too late for me to reread and think enough try to put a finger on it.

Yet... if AV is town, she has an inkling of a strategy that could work with claims, but the strategy would fail if she admits what it is. I admit I've had similar thoughts. And, with some more time and reading some of AV's stuff, I am rethinking to a degree the utility of claiming. (Even if she's a witch trying to get us to admit some roles to help them pinpoint targets, I reckon there's also enough truth to her statements that there is a good strat involving claims.)

So maybe this dooms me, but... I'm the Traveler.
Or am I?

I can explain that, AV.
I wanted to look active without actually contributing because I'm scum and want town to lose.

Oddly, I trust Xihirli to be honest in such circumstances, but then feel compelled to ignore that trust and act as if she's town.

[AvatarVecna]

Something about AV's analysis makes me think she might be witch. Also makes me think a touch that Valmark might be the werewolf. it's hard to put a finger on why exactly, and too late for me to reread and think enough try to put a finger on it.

Yet... if AV is town, she has an inkling of a strategy that could work with claims, but the strategy would fail if she admits what it is. I admit I've had similar thoughts. And, with some more time and reading some of AV's stuff, I am rethinking to a degree the utility of claiming. (Even if she's a witch trying to get us to admit some roles to help them pinpoint targets, I reckon there's also enough truth to her statements that there is a good strat involving claims.)

So maybe this dooms me, but... I'm the Traveler.
Or am I?



Oddly, I trust Xihirli to be honest in such circumstances, but then feel compelled to ignore that trust and act as if she's town.

If the circumstances were just right for it, and every townie gave an honest claim, we could run the game. But they're not, and they won't, so it's a pipe dream anyway.

[JeenLeen]

If the circumstances were just right for it, and every townie gave an honest claim, we could run the game. But they're not, and they won't, so it's a pipe dream anyway.

Hard to read if that "we" is you and I managing the town, or you and the witches
But I'll assume the former and take it as a compliment. Also, I expected witch!AV to give a stronger accusation against my action as part of any response to this, so maybe I misread you.

I admit I am rather curious to see what responses my claim generates.

Not for this moment, but a generalish comment: Kinda a shame we don't have a Reckless Hero to rush a lynch, especially potentially lynch Vengeful Bastard if we had an outted wolf. I dislike admitting informational gaps as such minor mis-steps can seem wolfish, but I got the presence of Martyr and Reckless Hero mixed up in my head, thinking we had the Hero in the town.

[AvatarVecna]

Hard to read if that "we" is you and I managing the town, or you and the witches
But I'll assume the former and take it as a compliment. Also, I expected witch!AV to give a stronger accusation against my action as part of any response to this, so maybe I misread you.

For the moment I'm keeping my thoughts to myself because-

I admit I am rather curious to see what responses my claim generates.

Ah, okay, you totally get it already, no need for me to explain further.