Witch Hunt!

[Valmark]

VOTE: CaoimhinTheCape

I think with Caoi one of the last to vote last time and throwing a wasted vote on Xihirli that they both witches. It would be too late and no one would be rallying to throw votes on Xi. So in night one I think it would have been a good play to throw people off from them being on the same side.

To be fair, any vote would have been wasted.

Aaaah why do you all agree with me

The paranoia is setting in

May be because you've done the most reasoning for now/you've voted somebody people already found suspicious. Though it is pretty standard tactic to agree with townies anyway.

[JeenLeen]

I don't want to do too much to help the werewolf pinpoint the Judge, but I think it was probably a meaningful choice instead of a fluke.

The people who have been mostly away-from-keyboard are posting now (e.g., Cao said they might be offline, Apogee had connection issue, JohnnyPatches was off at first). It could be, as Cao noted, that the Judge missed the 24-hour cutoff. But I think it's safe to assume (in the sense that it's most likely the case) that the Judge knowingly and purposefully chose No Lynch.

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One last thought before I go to bed.

If the Judge felt like it'd be useful to claim for some reason, I think they are one of the relatively safe Roles. The witches and the werewolf both, in some sense, want the judge alive so there's a chance of a townie dying to mislynch if we fail to lynch. I reckon both factions are sad there wasn't a lynch attempt, since it likely would have hit a townie.

Of course, both factions have reason to kill the Judge. Like, the werewolf wants its devour. And the Enchantress wants to avoid dying to a judge-lynch. But I can see why it'd be a question of "should we kill them now" instead of a definite "let's kill them now" (plus the question of "are they fakeclaiming?"). Both factions might wait, even if they know who the Judge is.

Part of me would like the Judge to claim since I'd like to hear why they didn't lynch someone (logical reason or mistake), but at the moment it seems safest for them to stay quiet since we can't count on neither enemy faction making use of that knowledge.
Also, this "relative safety" is probably only true early game. As the game progresses, the witches will want confirmed townies dead and the werewolf will get more desperate to devour.

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I'm bad at going to bed on time.

No Lynch

There's not enough info to really tell at this point, plus I don't know how any of you play. Not gonna risk losing numbers this early on and hopefully someone slips up.

It was a safe kill, he didn't target anyone and left it in the judge's hand. It didn't rock the boat at all. Now with that being said the Judge not lynching anyone actually hurts a lot. So the judge either passed on the kill or didn't respond so it could be someone not active lately in that role.

During D1, you seemed to advocate for a literal No Lynch. Like, not just letting the Judge handle it, but encouraging no deaths lest we hit a townie.
After the no-lynch, you say it really hurts.

Why the change in perspective?
Or did I misread your first post, or miss an in-between post?

[JonnyPatches]

During D1, you seemed to advocate for a literal No Lynch. Like, not just letting the Judge handle it, but encouraging no deaths lest we hit a townie.
After the no-lynch, you say it really hurts.

Why the change in perspective?
Or did I misread your first post, or miss an in-between post?

As I read it if I voted No Lynch the judge would have the vote on who to kill. I may have read it wrong but that's how I was voting. The change in perspective is because we didn't get a judge kill as we thought we would get. Plus I gave my reasoning before on why I chose to vote this round.

[Valmark]

If we vote no lynch and leave it in the judge's hand it gives a slight advantage to the townies. If we vote and hit the judge then we lose a villager and get closer to losing. If we let the judge make the choice, we could still hit the villager but the playing the odds and the number we have a better chance of hitting a witch with wolf. So for this first round at least, I'm more then okay with letting the judge trust their instinct, or not kill someone and we move onto the next night.

Actually, JP had already expressed the judge choice a few posts after their vote.

As I read it if I voted No Lynch the judge would have the vote on who to kill. I may have read it wrong but that's how I was voting. The change in perspective is because we didn't get a judge kill as we thought we would get. Plus I gave my reasoning before on why I chose to vote this round.

Yes, that's how it works. If no majority is reached or the majority is No Lynch the judge can choose who to lynch.

[Snowblaze]

So. I'm really sorry about this, but IRL stuff has unexpectedly come up which means I won't be able to play. As in, probably not for at least a year. You can take me off the narration list, AV. My game isn't going to be happening.

If you can find a replacement for me in this game, great! If you can't, I'd like to politely ask you not to lynch me, because Reasons, and also not to let the judge kill me for the same Reasons. If the witches want to kill someone who isn't going to actually contribute to anything, or the werewolf wants to out themselves to try and guess my role, go ahead.

I think Apogee was asking for my read on Valmark: I think he's town. Not certain without much information to go on and without QTs, but that's where I am. I also townread Apogee and JeenLeen, and I would be townreading AV if they weren't AV.

Also, just for the record and to avoid confusion: I am not the Judge, and my IRL issues are not why no-one was lynched.

I've had a fabulous time here, I've made some great friends and done some crazy things. You've driven me insane and murdered me, but I still love you for it.

Bye, guys. I hope someday I'll be able to come back and play again. In the meantime, have fun without me.

I'll miss you.

[Aventine]

That is unfortunate. I wish you the best, Snow.

[Valmark]

I hope so too, Snow. Love you! And best of luck in solving what is the problem. Or life in general.

[Unavenger]

Aww! It was good having you, Snow!

[AvatarVecna]

We'll be here when you're able to come back. Was good having you with us.

[Apogee1]

Good luck with everything snowblaze

[Elenna]

We'll miss you, Snowblaze. Good luck with IRL stuff!

[JeenLeen]

Bummer, Snowblaze. Hope it goes as well as it can.

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I think we should honor her request for not lynching her. I have a guess why she asked it how she did, but I haven't really given the time to think how risky sharing the guess it.

Also, I'm surprised we haven't had more votes and analysis. Bunny of Faith, you around?

[Xihirli]

Aw.
Good luck, Snow!

[rogue_alchemist]

My arch-nemesis is gone? What will be the purpose of my life now?

I agree that the total inactivity of the judge hurts us. There aren't any voiding powers that could take his vote away, so likely they were either purposeful or absent (as JeenLeen says). I think the only choice we have going forward is to try our hardest to reach a good consensus. However that presents its own problem as we have no way of knowing if we are even headed in the right direction. Currently the vote count stands as:

Valmark 1 (Unavenger)
BunnyofFaith 4 (Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape, JohnnyPatches, JeenLeen)

So it is getting dangerous to vote for BunnyofFaith, though this presents an opportunity for further analysis as to what happens. As for my vote, I am going with Xihiril as they haven't been terribly helpful with their posts and seem like they are trying to skate by without too much notice.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Sorry that you have to drop out Snow, hopefully the real life stuff will get sorted and you'll be able to rejoin when you can!

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@Aventine Snow requested a replacement - is that something you're going to try to look for?

Either way I'm fine avoiding Snow's slot for now, especially as there are other targets to go after.

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I think with Caoi one of the last to vote last time and throwing a wasted vote on Xihirli that they both witches. It would be too late and no one would be rallying to throw votes on Xi. So in night one I think it would have been a good play to throw people off from them being on the same side.

Even though it's against me, that's a good point that this game (especially Day 1) is good for distancing since we can always leave it up to the Judge.

Is there any reason you chose to vote me over Xihirli? I'm actually happy to jump over to a Xihirli wagon too.

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Not quite a list of ISOs, but thoughts on the players:

Spoiler: Apogee1

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Apogee's catch-up post(s) went over well for me and I happy with them Day 2 so far. Both on the analysis side plus just a general town vibe from their posts.

I don't know why I picked this post in particular. But one in {Valmark, JeenLeen, Elenna} makes sense

And it's probably not Elenna sticking by that

Day 2 thoughts on Valmark vs JeenLeen?

Spoiler: AvatarVecna

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Day 1 AV isn't around until a wagon forms, at which point we get a large ISO post. Helpful, but not enough to convince me of innocence yet. There were more posts than I remembered on Day 1, so feeling a l Day 2 I don't think we've had anything. I don't love it but if I have to pick a side maybe I'm starting to trust AV? Looking for more posts/reads from them.

AvatarVecna: you said you thought gac3 slipped up and revealed something. Is it safe to say what that something is?

Spoiler: Bunny of Faith

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I really don't have anything to go on here.

Spoiler: Elenna

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Elenna/Unavenger was a big part of Day 1 but I think she also comes across as town from the interaction. Later in Day 1 Elenna tries to start up conversation again, so points for that.

Spoiler: gac3

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Most of their Day 1 discussion centered around game mechanics, I can't draw any connections from gac to anyone else or find particular reasons for their death.

Spoiler: JeenLeen

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It seems odd to trust the Judge and not vote for D1, even though Unavenger's reasoning is, well, reasonable. But I'll take that as enough D1 minor evidence to think they might be a witch trying to limit town info.
So Unavenger.

I've looked back to this vote from JeenLeen a few times but I can't quite place what I think is off about it. Unavenger explained themselves a bit before this and cleared up some of the confusion. Not sure what the vote was going to help if the wagon was losing some steam.

Once Jeen showed up, they engaged a lot in discussion about mechanics. Overall that makes me want to lean town but I'm really not sure yet.

Something about AV's analysis makes me think she might be witch. Also makes me think a touch that Valmark might be the werewolf. it's hard to put a finger on why exactly, and too late for me to reread and think enough try to put a finger on it.

@ JeenLeen did you get a chance to reread and expand on this?

I've been thinking of a couple Judge/claim schemes that might work, but both sound terribly boring and might not work (in both the sense of 'not sure if the math works out such that it could get victory' and 'there are chances it could fail even if the math is sound').

I'll share them for food for thought. But note I am not recommending them unless someone can prove it should work out.
Scheme A: Massclaim Everyone claim. The werewolf and witches will fakeclaim, of course, but that gives 5 duplicates (4 if the Spy claims Spy honest) due to baddie fakeclaims. We then systemtically go through the lynches to kill the baddies. Presumably the werewolf also tries to get immunity by killing a dup.
This could easily give the game to the werewolf unless they are unlucky in picking a dup, and the witches don't take it out the moment at first opportunity.

Scheme B: Judge Leads
If we let the Judge control the kill, I think odds favor the Judge killing the witches randomly before the witches kill the town.
The big downside is that the Judge might be randomly killed by the witches. And we probably don't learn that the Judge died until the No Lynch has no kill (though the Warlock, Survivalist, or Werewolf might mislead us.)
Also, this is really boring as it's basically us all doing nothing.
This fails if the Judge dies, and also fails if the Judge is Lover with the Werewolf (but that seems very unlikely, so probably best to assume the Lovers are Town). I reckon it's a bad plan in that it will set up the witches to win once the Judge dies randomly, with the surviving Town having almost no info to find the baddies. So this is probably giving the game to the witches.

Didn't we all basically agree to scheme B? Am I reading this wrong? The farther we get into the game we can't assume the Judge is alive. Maybe Jeen left out that idea, but I assume we'll all be happier to vote as the game goes on. Jeen ends saying that the plan gives the game to the witches?

Again, not liking the overall feel but it could be from any side.

Spoiler: JonnyPatches

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Another one for not enough info. Now that they're posting in Day 2 there will be more to read, but nothing pushing me one way or the other.

Spoiler: rogue_alchemist

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Meh. Basically I want more. There were posts Day 1 but none of them particularly screamed town to me.

Spoiler: Snowblaze

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Put out a few plans on Day 1, mostly analysis talk. Can't say it pushed me either way. Given Snow's Day 2 post, I'm leaning town.

Spoiler: Valmark

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Valmark definitely has been around and was involved with the Elenna/Unavenger discussion and more. But I can't say I've formed an opinion so far. Maybe I'll need to do another reread to see if I

Spoiler: Xihirli

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I do not see any content to analyze.

Spoiler: Unavenger

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Unavenger's Day 1 makes me feel like they're town. The mechanics discussion and ideas behind it feel townish and there's nothing since then that would make me change my mind.

Spoiler: Roles in general

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As JeenLeen pointed out, gac also could have been the Junior Witch. Hopefully that's the case but I'm not counting on it.

I'm guessing the Priest did not get an Evil result last night or just wants to stay quiet. Talking out loud, roles that should have info:

Priest - knows 1 person's alignment unless they chose gac.
Acolyte - knows the Priest
Spy - knows all Witches expect maybe the Junior Witch, if JW didn't join.
Lovers (can overlap with above) - know each other

tl;dr

People I trust
Unavenger
Elenna
Apogee1(?)
Snowblaze(?)
gac3

People I'm not sure of
JeenLeen
AvatarVecna (leaning trust)
JonnyPatches
rogue_alchemist
Valmark

People I'm willing to vote for
Xihirli
Bunny of Faith

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rogue, your vote count was a bit off, Jonny voted for me rather than Bunny. And, of course, your own vote should be added.

Now that I've finished my reads, I'd mostly prefer to vote the people not posting as much. Happy to stand by that, without any other leaders.

Vote Count (7 required for majority)

Valmark 1 (Unavenger)
Bunny of Faith 3 (Valmark, CaoimhinTheCape, JeenLeen)
CaoimhinTheCape 1 (JonnyPatches)
Xihiril 1 (rogue_alchemist)


Not voting: 6 (Snowblaze, BunnyOfFaith, Xihirli, AvatarVecna, Elenna, Apgoee)

[Apogee1]

Ok.

I'm putting Valmark as town

I know have major cold feet on Bunny being scum with the speed of that wagon

Flipless is too much man

Vote: JeenLeen

He's felt a little weathervane-ish

Pushing big wagons higher.

The mechanics planning is NAI he likes to do that as both alignments

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Bad read of the day is that AV and Xihirli not being already up to their necks in some sort of shenanigans implies they aren't wolves.

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Bah not wolves witches.

The wolf probably wants to stay out of shenanigans for a bit

[JonnyPatches]

Even though it's against me, that's a good point that this game (especially Day 1) is good for distancing since we can always leave it up to the Judge.

Is there any reason you chose to vote me over Xihirli? I'm actually happy to jump over to a Xihirli wagon too.

Really a coin flip. You being more active then Xi, by default, makes you far more influential. If you are scum, and we can remove you early on. It'd be a huge win for townfolk, and my theory could have some sway. There's also the chance you're scum, made a throw away vote and Xi goes down and we loose another townie. So much of this game is grasping at straws with little to nothing to go off of.

[Unavenger]

Bad read of the day is that AV and Xihirli not being already up to their necks in some sort of shenanigans implies they aren't [witches].

See I want to disagree with this but at the same time it makes too much sense.

[JeenLeen]

@ JeenLeen did you get a chance to reread and expand on this?

To be honest, no, but you'll see in a moment it's not too relevant.

I lied about being the Traveler. It was a fakeclaim to try to draw out the werewolf, but obviously it didn't work.
I'm the Spy/Warlock. I wouldn't have announced it publicly, but I made a slip-up in the QT and the other witches basically figured it out. Pretty sure I'll be sacrificed tonight, so I figure we might as well get one of them today.
The other witches are rogue_alchemist (Enchantrss) and Xihirli (Assassin).
UNVOTE Bunny of Faith.
VOTE Xihirli, as we want to limit the kills they get when they sacrifice me tonight.

As for killing gac3, they just seemed a safe choice. Not too likely to get lynched anytime soon, good player, and others have reasons we thought they might get lynched. Personally, I pushed for them since I thought maybe the slip-up was that they were Junior Witch. (JW hasn't joined us yet, by the way.)

Sorry, y'all, for getting caught so soon, but I hope this is helpful overall.

[Apogee1]

And here. we. go.

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Xihirli, Bunny I want claims probably

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So Jeen is either the spy or an actual witch ftr a town doesn't fake claim this.

And he's dead tonight either way.

If the real spy exists they should counterclaim right now

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I'm glad it at least seems probable my Bunny/JeenLeen associative was half correct

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Or maybe half half correct lol

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Vote: Xihirli

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Also voting Xihirli confirms if assassin is alive or not tonight after Jeen presumably gets sacrificed

[CaoimhinTheCape]

OK, first:

UNVOTE

I don't want this day rushed any by people hammering votes until this is settled.


Spy is a great claim, as the Werewolf can't devour the Spy, but we need to be careful. For all we know this is a witch ploy - there's no way to prove Xihiril or Jeen with flips, so we'll have to wait through the night to see this all play out.

First, want to see if there are any counterclaims to Spy. If JeenLeen is not the spy, the real Spy should step forward now so that we won't follow this.

I assume Apogee is not counterclaiming, neither am I.

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Vote Count (7 required for majority)

Valmark 1 (Unavenger)
Bunny of Faith 1 (Valmark)
CaoimhinTheCape 1 (JonnyPatches)
Xihiril 3 (rogue_alchemist, JeenLeen, Apgoee)


Not voting: 6 (CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, BunnyOfFaith, Xihirli, AvatarVecna, Elenna)

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About 27 hours until day ends.

[Apogee1]

I am not counterclaiming spy

[JeenLeen]

OK, first:

UNVOTE

I don't want this day rushed any by people hammering votes until this is settled.

I'm cool with this. So I'll UNVOTE to give more time for people to claim against me if they want. I should be online later tonight and tomorrow morning at least, and hopefully be back online before the 72 hours would end tomorrow, so plenty of time for me to recast my vote after discussion has occurred.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I am not counterclaiming spy

Yeah, probably could have read your post above a little better.

Also, this means that rogue was bussing Xi earlier this page?

[Apogee1]

Yeah, probably could have read your post above a little better.

Also, this means that rogue was bussing Xi earlier this page?

If JeenLeen is correct.

Its interesting

However he is always the spy or a witch so I'm fine trusting pre-cc for the moment especially since the assassin bit clarifies itself to a degree

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Also no worries I should have explicitly stated I'm not ccing

Everyone should

[JeenLeen]

Yeah, probably could have read your post above a little better.

Also, this means that rogue was bussing Xi earlier this page?

Distancing that Xihirli said she was cool with. Doesn't exactly make sense to me as a D2 move, but neither do most of Xihirli's tactics.

[AvatarVecna]

AvatarVecna: you said you thought gac3 slipped up and revealed something. Is it safe to say what that something is?

gac3's first two posts read like he knows for sure the Lovers are in the game. Only the Lovers, the Enchantress, and the Spy who isn't the Enchantress would know that for sure. At the time, I figured a Lover wouldn't have their first post be "I know for sure the Lovers are in the game", so that makes them either the Enchantress speaking up like "yeah guys I'm definitely not the spy", or makes them the Spy speaking carelessly and revealing they know the Enchantress is really the Enchantress.

Of course, that was my theory yesterday. But if gac3 was a Lover, the other Lover would've died too. And if they got sacrificed by the witches for an unblockable kill, there'd still be another body today. But there's not...which means either that witches targeted gac3 cuz they thought he spewed himself as a Lover and they wanted a 2-for-1 deal (so just blatantly trying to screw over the Enchantress), or the witches used their faction kill on a witch instead of the sacrifice mechanic for some inexplicable reason.

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Oh and there's somebody else who I think spewed their role on accident, but then I was wrong about gac so maybe I'm wrong about them too...

[Valmark]

Well, with an unavailable Judge (at least possibly unavailable) there isn't really anybody else to vote for but Xihirli.

UNVOTE Bunny of Faith

Apogee1, why are you asking a claim from Bunny?

[Unavenger]

But if gac3 was a Lover, the other Lover would've died too.

That's only for lynches, cutie. Gac3 was nightkilled, not lynched - which means that he might have been a lover.

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The rest of this situation confuses me enough that I will join the large wagon that is on Unvote right now as I figure out who to trust.

[Apogee1]

Well, with an unavailable Judge (at least possibly unavailable) there isn't really anybody else to vote for but Xihirli.

UNVOTE Bunny of Faith

Apogee1, why are you asking a claim from Bunny?

I confused bunny and rogue for a moment there oops

Yeah bunny don't claim